It’s still really, really early, but there has been a lot of talk about which player deserves recognition as the league’s MVP. When people talk about a player (or specifically, a quarterback) being a top 3, 5, or 10 player at the position, one has to take into consideration that, well, the pool of talent is Mariana Trench deep. Take a look at the stats for the top quarterbacks in the league this year:
| Player | Team | Record | Comp% | PYPG | TD | INT | YPA | SK | RYDS | TD | FUM | Rate | QBR | Odds* |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | 6-0 | 73.8% | 290 | 14 | 4 | 8.9 | 12 | 116 | 3 | 6 | 116.2 | 68 | +450 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 5-1 | 73.1% | 302 | 16 | 4 | 8.4 | 8 | 70 | 0 | 6 | 115 | 55.4 | +450 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 4-2 | 64.8% | 287 | 15 | 3 | 7.5 | 8 | 214 | 2 | 3 | 103.6 | 64.5 | +500 |
| Tom Brady | TB | 5-1 | 68.5% | 344 | 17 | 3 | 7.7 | 9 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 108 | 66.4 | +800 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | 5-1 | 69.5% | 306 | 16 | 4 | 9.2 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 116.6 | 75 | +1200 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 5-1 | 66.7% | 239 | 12 | 3 | 7.7 | 13 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 104.6 | 65.5 | +1200 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 5-1 | 67.5% | 281 | 9 | 5 | 8.7 | 16 | 392 | 2 | 5 | 99.3 | 62.6 | +1200 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 4-2 | 65.4% | 295 | 14 | 4 | 7.2 | 11 | 72 | 1 | 1 | 98.8 | 61.6 | +1400 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 3-3 | 69.0% | 315 | 18 | 8 | 7.8 | 10 | 184 | 1 | 2 | 103.1 | 70.9 | +1800 |
There’s a compelling argument for each player on this list, also an argument against each player (as flimsy as it may be in some cases).
Before continuing, and in fairness to Russell Wilson, he was having a typically great Russell Wilson season before going down with a broken and dislocated middle finger in Week 5 – he was lapping the field with a 125 rating, though his QBR was around the middle of the pack, but his other stats were in line with those above. If Wilson comes back ahead of schedule and leads the Seahawks back from the abyss, he’ll receive consideration. For the purposes of answering the question of “who will be NFL MVP?”, he’s off the list until otherwise noted.
Other Honourable Mentions:
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee (+2500): the only plausible non-QB to get any MVP talk, Henry is having an even better start to the 2021 season than he had in 2020, when he rushed for 2,027 yards. With the 17-game schedule, the rushing record set by Eric Dickerson of 2,105 yards is absolutely in play. Henry currently has 783 yards and 10 TDs.
Derek Carr (+6500) and Joe Burrow (+10000): both QBs are off to great starts with teams that have started the season surprisingly well, as the Raiders and Bengals are both 4-2. Much work is ahead for both QBs if they are to force their way into the MVP conversation, but their strong starts are noted.
The contrasts of the list are worth mentioning:
1. Four QBs on this list are 25 or under, and of course you have the soon-to-be 38 year old Aaron Rodgers and the 44 year old Tom Brady representing the old heads.
2. Dual threat QBs Jackson, Murray, and Allen appear on this list, as do the pocket QBs Brady and Stafford, and those that reside in the middle ground.
KYLER MURRAY, ARIZONA CARDINALS
Cardinals: 6-0, first, NFC West, last unbeaten team
Marquee Win: at Rams 37-20, Week 4
While the defense has taken an enormous step forward for the Cardinals this season, the Cardinals diminutive dynamo has started the 2021 as he started the 2020 season, with his do-it-all ability leading the Cardinals offense and bringing with it talk of winning the MVP. Murray’s passing stats are just barely behind that of Stafford, while his lightning-fast speed has led to 116 yards on the ground and 3 TDs.
Argument for MVP: Explosiveness and efficiency. Not only does Kyler Murray have one of the highest YPA in the league, at 8.9, but he also leads the league with a 73.8% completion percentage. Murray is quick and elusive with the ball in his hands as well, and is able to use his speed to hurt teams with his legs when needed. Being the QB of a 6-0 team doesn’t hurt either.
Argument against MVP: Ball security and injury risk. His six fumbles are tied for the league lead (with Dak Prescott), including four in Week 6, though Murray has been fortunate that the Cardinals have recovered them all. Teams are generally not fortunate enough to recover fumbles at this rate, so Murray will need to do a better job of protecting the football going forward. While not an argument against, Murray did fade in the middle of last season, as hits took their toll on his smaller stature – this is likely to be an issue throughout his career, and he will need to ensure he takes fewer hard hits as the cumulative impact wears on.
Remaining Statement Games: vs Packers, Week 8; vs Rams, Week 14; at Cowboys, Week 17
DAK PRESCOTT, DALLAS COWBOYS
Cowboys: 5-1, first, NFC East
Marquee Win: at Chargers 20-17, Week 2
Odds to win MVP: +450 (source: Draft Kings Sportsbook)
After suffering a grotesque broken ankle injury against the Giants last year, the jury was out on whether Dak Prescott could return to become the same QB he was prior to the injury. His contract was up, and following a franchise tag in 2020, there were questions about whether the Cowboys should sign him long-term with the injury risk (he would later sign a four-year $160 million contract to remain with the Boys). After six games, he looks even better than he was before. Prescott’s Cowboys are 5-1 due to a few factors: their revamped defense under DC Dan Quinn, the improved play of a, now healthy, offensive line, and the return of Dak Prescott. The Cowboys have won five in a row since losing a heartbreaker on opening night against the defending champs. And while the rest of the division is terrible this year, their non-division games are tough (Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, and Cardinals still left), so plenty of opportunities to add to the resumé.
Argument for MVP: Improved play by Cowboys, across the board statistical excellence. Prescott is among the league leaders in passing yards, TDs, QB rating, and yards per attempt, and is second in completion percentage, only marginally behind Kyler Murray. Last season, the Cowboys were completely lost with their backup QBs (Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci, and Garrett Gilbert all started at least one game in 2020), and while the defense has a lot to say about their success in 2021, they would not be 5-1 without Dak Prescott.
Argument against MVP: Ball security. Prescott’s six fumbles (and three lost fumbles) lead the league. As with Kyler Murray, he needs to do a better job of protecting the football, or this issue may come back to haunt him as the season progresses.
Both good and bad for Dak Prescott’s MVP case: Cowboys supporting cast. Dallas’ supporting cast is so good as to potentially impact Prescott’s ceiling as MVP. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are one of the best wide receiver combinations, Dalton Schultz is fourth in the league in tight end receiving yards at 358, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have combined for 887 yards and 6 TDs through six weeks, and the offensive line has been outstanding.
Remaining Statement Games: at Chiefs, Week 11; vs Cardinals, Week 17
JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO BILLS
Bills: 4-2, first, AFC East
Marquee Win: at Chiefs 38-20, Week 5
Odds to win MVP: +500
Following a poor showing in the first week of the season against the Steelers, the Bills woke up and have scored 187 points in their past five games. Despite last week’s loss in a thriller at Tennessee, the Bills should traipse to a division win in the awful AFC East and their record in the conference should afford them a decent seed, and potentially Josh Allen MVP hype. In 2020, Allen put his prodigious tools together and became the prototypical modern quarterback: he’s big, has a rocket launcher of an arm, can run, and has enough strength to absorb the blows of the pass rush, and has the agility to leap over tacklers. He has carried that form on to 2021.
Argument for MVP: Ground game, Wow throws, protects the football (for now). While skepticism exists about whether he can keep this up, Allen has turned the ball over only four times in six games, and fumbled three times. If he can continue to throw 50-60+ yard bombs while avoiding interceptions, his performances will likely force voters into ticking his name for MVP. His ability to run – he’s the Bills’ de facto short yardage back – turns into additional production, and he’s scored at least 8 rushing TDs in each of his previous three seasons.
Argument against MVP: Low completion percentage, cupcake schedule. Even the NFC East leading Cowboys can be envious of the Bills’ schedule. With 11 games left, the Bills have two games scheduled against teams with records presently above .500: the Saints on US Thanksgiving night, and the defending champs in Week 14. Allen’s completion percentage is another factor – Allen no longer resides in the 50s as he did in his first two seasons, but the completion percentage is down 5% from last season to 64.8%, which is lower than any of the 10 candidates discussed here, and significantly lower than all except Justin Herbert.
Remaining Statement Game: at Bucs, Week 14
TOM BRADY, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Buccaneers: 5-1, first, NFC South
Marquee Win: at Cowboys 31-29, Week 1
Odds to win MVP: +800
Nothing about Tom Brady can be considered surprising anymore. At an age where most players have long since retired, put on 50 lbs, and have been fitted for bionic joints, Tom Brady is still putting up numbers that can rival any QB in the league – 6 Pro Football Hall of Famers* are younger than Brady, including LaDainian Tomlinson, who was enshrined in the 2017 class! With the sixth-worst passing defense in the league, the Bucs have needed Brady to play like his younger version, and with the embarrassment of riches on offense, he has been equal to the task so far this season.
Argument for MVP: Passing numbers and protecting the football. Brady is thPatrick Mahomes in passing TD, with 17 through six games. Brady has only turned the ball over four times all season, including two interceptions in Week 1.
Argument against MVP: More dynamic choices and Brady fatigue. We all know that most commentators have already long considered Brady the Greatest of All Time and, much like the NBA with LeBron James, such greatness means that the expectations for each player is to compete at an MVP level every season, regardless of age. That said,
Both good and bad for Brady’s MVP case: Buccaneers offense. Much like Dak Prescott, Tom Brady is surrounded by incredible talent at all offensive positions – Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin form a strong WR room, while Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and OJ Howard provide a lot of talent and depth at TE. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are more than capable RBs, while the offensive line may be the best in the league.
Remaining Statement Game: vs Bills, Week 14
[* – Tomlinson, Brian Urlacher, Champ Bailey, Troy Polamalu, Edgerrin James, and Charles Johnson all have yellow jackets and are younger than Brady]
MATTHEW STAFFORD, LA RAMS
Rams: 5-1, second, NFC West
Marquee Win: vs Bucs 34-24, Week 3
Odds to win MVP: +1200
When the Rams sent two firsts, a third, and Jared Goff to the Lions to get Matthew Stafford, this is what they were looking for. Stafford has opened up the Rams defense in a way that Goff was never able to do – specifically, the deep part of the field. Adding Stafford to the offense, and adding that offense to the Rams elite defense, has turned the Rams from playoff contender to Super Bowl contender.
Argument for MVP: Elevated the Rams with explosive plays. Stafford leads the league with 9.2 yards per pass, and has already thrown for 16 TDs. The Rams will Goff were a 10-6 team last season, but they never really felt like the sum of their parts due to the deficiencies in the offense. With Stafford, the offense has been supercharged.
Argument against MVP: Higher ceiling for other candidates. There really hasn’t been anything not to like about what Stafford has done this season, though his performance against the Cardinals, and another MVP front-runner Kyler Murray, was less than desirable. Stafford’s risk will be more against narrative, such as if a do-it-all QB like Murray or Lamar Jackson continue at their respective paces.
Remaining Statement Games: at Packers, Week 12; at Cardinals, Week 14; at Ravens, Week 17
AARON RODGERS, GREEN BAY PACKERS
Packers: 5-1, first, NFC North
Marquee Win: at Bengals 25-22, Week 5
Odds to win MVP: +1200
To say Aaron Rodgers’ offseason was eventful would be an understatement. To the rumours that he did not want to return to Green Bay due to a power struggle with the team – which Rodgers later deemed “an exaggeration” – to his week as a guest host of Jeopardy!, to his brutally (and refreshingly) honest press conference after the first day of practice in training camp, questions abounded as to whether he wanted out, wanted to stay (with changes), or was ready to retire. After a Week 1 dismantling of the Packers at the hands of the Saints, those questions seemed to have intensified. Since then, the Packers have won five in a row and are in their customary first place spot in the NFC North. As always seems to be the case with Rodgers, any turmoil is met with strong play and removal of doubts. An ominous schedule looms for the Packers though, which will test their mettle as the season wears on.
Argument for MVP: Protects the ball. As he has throughout his career, Aaron Rodgers is one of the league’s best at protecting the football. Rodgers has thrown only three interceptions in six games and has not committed a fumble.
Argument against MVP: Lack of strong statistics. Aside from the lack of turnovers, there isn’t one other stat in his line that screams MVP. He’s thrown for fewer yards than anyone else, fewer TDs than all except Lamar Jackson, and picks his spots a lot more in the run game. He’ll need to do more in the next 11 games to improve his candidacy.
Both good and bad for Rodgers’ MVP resume: Murderous schedule. The Packers still must travel to Arizona, Kansas City, and Baltimore – Arizona and KC in back-to-back weeks – while they also host Seattle (who should have Russell Wilson back by then), the Rams, and Cleveland. Despite divisional matchups that should inspire confidence, that schedule has many pitfalls in its path.
Remaining Statement Games: at Cardinals, Week 8, at Chiefs, Week 9, vs Rams, Week 12, at Ravens, Week 15
LAMAR JACKSON, BALTIMORE RAVENS
Ravens: 5-1, first, AFC North
Marquee Win: vs Chiefs 36-35, Week 2
Odds to win MVP: +1200
Lamar Jackson’s ability as a passer has taken a big step up this season. While Jackson did throw for 36 TD passes in his MVP season in 2019, there has been a noticeable improvement in his accuracy and in his ability to pick apart zone defenses. His 281 yard average his by far the most of his career (previous high was 208) while still maintaining a 1,000 yard pace (technically, he’d need the extra game at his current 65 rypg pace). Given his three come from behind fourth quarter wins (vs KC, at Detroit, vs Indy), it is somewhat surprising that his odds are not higher than this.
Argument for MVP: Better passing stats to add to his elite run skills. Prior to this season, Jackson had one game where he threw for over 300 yards – the first game of his MVP season in 2019. So far this season, Lamar Jackson has two (in back-to-back weeks) against the Broncos and Colts, all while not sacrificing much in terms of his running ability. Aside from Josh Allen, no other QB has half as many rushing yards as the Ravens QB’s 392.
Argument against MVP: Ball security, passing issues (at times). Fumbles have been an issue throughout his career, as Jackson has already put the ball on the ground 36 times in not quite 3.5 seasons, including five so far in 2021. His 3 lost fumbles (2 at Raiders, 1 vs Indy) were also in key spots, either gifting the other team great field position late (as was the case in the Raiders loss) or fumbling away a scoring drive (as he did when fumbling near the goal line against the Colts). While fumbles have more or less been accepted as part of the risk of Lamar Jackson, he is has also thrown 5 interceptions so far this season. The passing issues have also cropped up this season, with poor passing games against the Lions (in which they needed a record-setting field goal to beat the still winless Lions), and Chargers – a game which was won mostly by the defense. When Jackson has a bad passing game, the critics tend to use this against his ability as a passer, which may lessen his candidacy in the eyes of voters.
Remaining Statement Games: vs Packers, Week 15; vs Rams, Week 17
JUSTIN HERBERT, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Chargers: 4-2, t-first, AFC West
Marquee Win: at Chiefs 30-24, Week 3
Odds to win MVP: +1400
Would the Dolphins pick Tua Tagovailoa again if they had the chance? With the fifth overall pick, the Dolphins selected Tua, following a stellar career at Alabama. The problem? Tagovailoa suffered a near-catastrophic broken and dislocated hip injury in his final college season at Mississippi State, which was expected to need recovery well into his first NFL season. The Dolphins gambled anyways and went for Tua Time. With the sixth pick, the Chargers went for former Oregon QB Justin Herbert. In college, Herbert was an extremely talented QB though at times he wouldn’t perform at his best in big games. After drafting Herbert, the Chargers paired him with QB-coaching guru Pep Hamilton to learn the ropes while expecting to spend the 2020 season with Tyrod Taylor under centre. Fate would intervene though, and a freak medical accident landed Taylor in the hospital and Herbert in as starter – a role he wouldn’t relinquish. Herbert was able to put his prodigious tools together in the pros and put up great numbers as a rookie. Now, accompanied by a strong defense and a risk-taking head coach, the Chargers have a team to be reckoned with… and a star QB in the making.
Argument for MVP: Big arm, ball security. Justin Herbert has one of the strongest throwing arms in the league – and in a league with so many rocket-armed QBs, that is a feat in itself – he is in the top portion of the yards per game and TD stats, while turning the ball over only five times in total this season. His tape from Week 3 to Week 5 is as strong as any in the league.
Argument against MVP: Poor games, numbers not quite as strong as top candidates. While his Week 3-5 tape is strong, those games were bookended by poorer games against the Cowboys and, especially, against the Ravens. The game against the Ravens in particular was difficult as the Chargers were only able to put up six points against the Ravens defense which had its struggles early in the season. Herbert’s ceiling is MVP candidate but moving up from the second or third tier to the top tier may be too much of a challenge in Year Two for him to overcome.
Remaining Statement Games: vs Chiefs, Week 15
PATRICK MAHOMES, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Chiefs: 3-3, t-third, AFC West
Marquee Win: vs Browns 33-29, Week 1
Odds to win MVP: +1800
To be quite honest, Patrick Mahomes does not deserve to win the MVP after his first six weeks. The Chiefs defense has been awful, but Mahomes has made some uncharacteristic mistakes this season too (the INTs against the Ravens in Week 2 and the first one against Washington in Week 6 were especially awful). He is still in the conversation because he could go on a tear at any moment and bring the Chiefs back into playoff – and even Super Bowl – contention.
Argument for MVP: Gaudy passing stats. Mahomes leads the league in passing TDs with 18, and is third in average yards per game, at 315. Mahomes is also second in QBR with 70.4 (incidentally, his worst QBR as a starter by some margin.
Argument against MVP: Too many interceptions/forcing bad passes. Patrick Mahomes is great at turning a broken play into a big yardage but he has been forcing the issue on too many passes this season. Sometimes it works and he looks like a genius, but this season, he has seen his fair share of forced plays turning into awful looking plays.
Remaining Statement Games: at Titans, Week 7; vs Cowboys, Week 11
After six weeks, my rankings would be split up into three tiers, as follows:
1. Kyler Murray
2. Dak Prescott
——————–
3. Lamar Jackson
4. Tom Brady
5. Josh Allen
6. Matthew Stafford
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7. Justin Herbert
8. Aaron Rodgers
9. Patrick Mahomes
I agree with the oddsmakers that Murray and Prescott deserve the greatest amount of consideration for the league MVP after six weeks. However, do feel that the case for Lamar Jackson is being sold sort, though a not-so-good Week 6 may be adding some recency bias into the equation. Brady, Allen, and Stafford all have solid cases, while Herbert, Rodgers, and Mahomes all would need to add to their résumés to gain serious consideration. If Derrick Henry continues at his current pace, voters will need to give him his due as well.