APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL – WEEK 8 RECAP AND POOL RESULTS

With Week 8 falling on Hallowe’en it made sense to go over the tricks and treats share by the league this week, as the league moves towards the halfway mark of the season. In this report, we go through each game and identify the treats for fans and tricks played by teams:

Packers 24, Cardinals 21
Treat: The Green Bay Packers were thin at receiver as Davante Adams and Allen Lazard were forced to miss this game after testing positive for COVID-19. As a result, the Packers played playoff football in October, relying on a solid run game and a tenacious defense which kept Kyler Murray guessing all game to pull out the victory over the previously unbeaten Cardinals.
Trick: On the last play of the game, the Cardinals had a second-and-goal play from the Packers 5 yard line with 15 seconds left and no timeouts. WR AJ Green appeared to run his route with the thought that he was a decoy and didn’t look towards the QB. When Kyler Murray took the snap, he immediately threw a throw towards the back shoulder of Green, though since Green was not ready/paying attention, he did not see the throw come in. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Packers CB Rasul Douglas did see the play unfold and grabbed the throw for the game ending interception.

Titans 34, Colts 31 (OT)
Treat: Not a treat for Colts fans, but this Carson Wentz play could go down as one of the most ill-advised (or dumbest if you prefer) plays ever seen. Bear in mind, this happened with less than 2 minutes remaining in a tie game. Happy Hallowe’en Titans! The Colts did take the next possession down for a tying score to force OT, where Wentz once again gifted the Titans with an interception to help seal the victory for the Titans. Wentz has played really well after a shaky start, but is prone to inexplicable gaffes, and this one more or less sealed the AFC South title to the Titans (who are now three games ahead of the Colts and swept their closest division rivals with this win). This is good news for the Titans because:
Trick: Derrick Henry suffered a potentially season-ending foot injury on what looked like an innocuous play early in the game. Henry finished the game, though he is scheduled to undergo surgery on his foot today (Tuesday) and is expected to miss 8-10 weeks, effectively ending his regular season. In response to this, the Titans have signed future Hall of Fame RB Adrian Peterson to help alleviate the impact.

Jets 34, Bengals 31
Treat:
In his first NFL start, Jets QB Mike White tore up the Bengals defense, going 37-for-45, 405 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. White is the second QB to ever throw for more than 400 yards (Cam Newton also pulled off the feat in 2011), and the first Jet to throw for that many yards in any game since Vinny Testaverde threw for 488 yards in a game in December 2000.

Trick: On a 3rd-and-11, Bengals CB Mike Hilton was called for a controversial helmet-to-helmet hit that turned a fourth down deep in Jets territory into a first down and effectively ended the game. The Hilton appeared to be aiming to strike the torso area of Jets RB Ty Johnson but as Johnson braced for impact, he lowered his head into the path of Hilton and their helmets collided, resulting in the penalty call.

Bills 26, Dolphins 11
Treat: In a tough defensive battle, Cole Beasley’s output stood out. The Bills slot receiver had the best game of the day with 10 catches for 110 yards as the Dolphins’ game plan was put together to restrict the deep passes the Bills offense has come to rely heavily upon.
Trick: Fans of offense were surely disappointed, as most of this game was a defensive battle between two teams that were expected to field strong defenses at the start of the season. The now 5-2 Bills have lived up to the billing, as they have the best defense in the league after eight weeks, but the Dolphins have been the league’s worst defense up to (and including) week 8. The Dolphins were able to confuse and hold off the Bills – the game was tied at 3 until 3:49 left in the third quarter – until the Bills were able to break the game open with two scores, one late in the third and one early in the fourth, to put the game away.

Panthers 19, Falcons 13
Treat:
There wasn’t much in the way of treats in this game, unless you are a fan of field goals – the two teams combined for six of them, with Panthers K Zane Gonzalez connecting on all four of his attempts. Edmonton’s Chuba Hubbard was the most productive player on offense, with 82 yards on 24 carries and a TD.
Trick: Pretty much everything else. The Falcons managed just 212 yards of total offense in this game. Panthers QB Sam Darnold suffered what is believed to be a concussion in a play in which he was tackled and his helmet, not strapped in appropriately, started to come off as his head was driven into the ground.

Steelers 15, Browns 10
Treat: A true AFC North battle, this game was a hard-nosed defensive battle, with Steelers pass rusher TJ Watt standing out, sacking Baker Mayfield 1.5 times, hitting the Browns QB three times, recovering a fumble, and six tackles, including a key stop of Nick Chubb on a fourth-and-one at the start of the second quarter.
Trick: Steelers K Chris Boswell went down with an injury late in the second quarter, as the Steelers faked a field goal deep inside Browns territory. On the play, Boswell was drilled by DT Jordan Elliott as he released a pass through the end zone. After that play, the Steelers did not attempt a field goal and went for two points after their two second half touchdowns.

Niners 33, Bears 22
Treat: The turning point of this game occurred when the Niners were down 16-9 and facing a third-and-19 deep in their own territory halfway through the third quarter. On this play, the Niners ran a bubble screen from Garoppolo to WR Deebo Samuel just behind the line of scrimmage. Samuel caught the ball and weaved through the Bears defense, running 83 yards before finally being forced out of bounds at the Bears 1 yard line. The Niners eventually scored the touchdown to bring the game within one point, and then blew the game open in the fourth quarter, scoring 18 points in the final frame to pull out the victory at Soldier Field. This win was significant for the Niners, who are now 3-4 and a half game out of the final wild card spot.
Trick: The Bears defense had a rough day at the office, allowing 467 yards to a Niners offense that is missing key components, such as TE George Kittle, and allowed 137 yards to RB Elijah Mitchell. Compounding this was that the Bears seemed to finally get on track offensively, especially running the football, as Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert combined to run for 175 yards. The Bears are in trouble, now losers of three in a row and down to 3-5 on the season. The playoffs are not yet out of the question, but a turnaround is needed.

Eagles 44, Lions 6
Treat: Despite being without RB Miles Sanders, the Eagles ran for 236 yards on this game, with Jalen Hurts, Boston Scott, and Jordan Howard all ran for over 50 yards against the Lions defense. The Eagles, now 3-2 on the road, are now on the periphery of the wild card race, though they do have significant issues to solve (such as the passing game) if they are to be true playoff contenders.
Trick: In the Hallowe’en spirit, the Lions apparently decided to dress a local high school team in team uniforms and had them play against an Eagles team that aspires to be average. The Lions were torn apart on defense in the run game and managed only 228 yards total offense. At 0-8 in what was already a lost season, the Lions have appeared to hit rock bottom. A loss like this tends to lead to uncomfortable questions, such as who on this team is worthy to stay past this season? Did the Lions make a mistake hiring Dan Campbell to be their head coach? When will Lions fans decide enough is enough and turn to other sports, like hockey or basketball – *looks at Pistons*… oh, maybe not.

Rams 38, Texans 22
Treat: This was a comprehensive win for the Rams, who got contributions from everyone: Matthew Stafford (305 yards, 3 TDs), Cooper Kupp (7 catches, 115 yards, 1 TD), Van Jefferson (3 catches, 88 yards), Darrell Henderson (90 yards rushing, 2 total TDs), Leonard Floyd had two sacks and Aaron Donald had 1.5 of his own. The team started subbing out their starters at the end of the third, and the Rams improved to 7-1 on the season.
Trick: Heading into this game, oddsmakers placed the Rams as 16.5 point favourites. After three quarters, the Rams were up 38-0 and Rams bettors looked to be ready to cash their tickets and head to the blackjack tables. Not so fast, my friends! The Texans rallied to score 22 points against the Rams backups in the fourth quarter to pull off a backdoor cover and send the bettors reeling into their $1.99 buffet plates.

Saints 36, Buccaneers 27
Treat: Tom Brady was handing out treats to the Saints defense, with a lost fumble and two picks, including this awful interception pass to Saints corner PJ Williams, which was taken back for a touchdown with under two minutes left in the fourth quarter to seal the win for the Saints. The win for the Saints puts them at 5-2 and within striking distance of the 6-2 Bucs for the AFC South division. The matchup in Tampa in Week 15 may be for the division crown, though other events may impact the Saints’ ability to contend.
Trick: Saints QB Jameis Winston suffered a torn ACL during a rough tackle by Bucs LB Devin White. Winston is expected to miss the rest of the season with the injury. The question in New Orleans: who will replace him? The Saints presently get to choose between utility player Taysom Hill or the QB that backed up Winston in this game, Trevor Siemian. Hill can play under centre, though was uninspiring in four starts last season when Drew Brees was injured and was not able to win the job of Winston this season, while Siemian has starting experience with the Broncos, amassing a 13-11 record, though should not be considered a long-term prospect for the job.

Patriots 27, Chargers 24
Treat: The Patriots played perhaps their best game of the season in this upset win over the Chargers in LA. With a house packed full of mostly Patriots fans, the defense sacked Justin Herbert three times, while former Chargers safety Adrian Phillips picked off the second year QB twice, including the pick-six of Herbert to give the Patriots a lead they would not relinquish. The Patriots are now 4-4, their defense is strong, and rookie QB Mac Jones is developing into a decent game-manager. In contrast with the NFC, the AFC playoff race is still wide open with 11 teams at .500 or better, but the Pats are in the mix once again.
Trick: Despite claims otherwise, the Chargers were confused by the looks offered by the Patriots in this matchup. The Patriots had played very little Cover 2 before this week, but used that defense to prevent deep passes by the Chargers and disguise their intentions in the pass rushing game. The trickery forced Justin Herbert into making bad decisions, such as the aforementioned pick-six by Phillips.

Seahawks 31, Jaguars 7
Treat: The Jaguars finally broke up the shutout with 1:49 left in the game on a Jamal Agnew touchdown reception. In the ensuing onside kickoff attempt, the Seahawks Travis Homer grabbed the kick and took it back 44 yards to put the game further on ice.
Trick: In the first quarter, Jaguars RB James Robinson went down with a bruised heel and did not return. The team struggled (again) all game and only put up the late consolation score with the game already in hand for the Seahawks. The Jaguars, now 1-6, have been a dumpster fire for most of the season and are staring an early draft pick in the eyes once again. As with Detroit, questions continue to abound about whether Urban Meyer was the right choice to take over the Jaguars, especially as he *mumbles into shirt* says he is not interested in the vacant USC head coaching job.

Broncos 17, Football Team 10
Treat: Broncos safety Justin Simmons had a big game, picking off Taylor Heinicke twice, including an interception at the goal line as Washington was driving for a game-tying score in the final minute the fourth quarter.
Trick: The Washington and Denver offensive lines had trouble containing the respective pass rushes all game, as the two teams combined for nine sacks of Heinicke and Teddy Bridgewater. Malik Reed had an especially good day, with 2 sacks and a forced fumble.

Cowboys 20, Vikings 16
Treat: It seemed at first to be a trick – Dak Prescott was being held out of this Sunday night showdown with the Vikings with a sore calf, replaced by first time starter Cooper Rush. With visions of 2020 backup QBs in their heads, Cowboys fans were expecting the worst – a throwaway game by the Cowboys in primetime. However, this trick turned into a treat, as Rush had a big game against the Vikings, going 24-for-40 for 325 yards, and 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 fumble. He also orchestrated a touchdown drive in the final two minutes to give the Cowboys their sixth win in a row, and a 3.5 game lead in the NFC East.
Trick: Another poor performance by Kirk Cousins, who went 24-for-35 for 184 yards and 1 TD. WR Justin Jefferson went down with a suspected knee injury early in the game, which appeared to impact him, as he came away with zero catches, though the Cowboys defense, specifically Trevon Diggs also contributed to the shutout for the second year receiver. With respect to Cousins, this was another example of the limits of Kirk Cousins, a decent QB but one with a very well-defined ceiling. Cousins is now 2-8 in his career against the Dallas Cowboys and the Vikings now sit at 3-4, which is about right at expectation for a team that is OK but not very good.

Chiefs 20, Giants 17
Treat: Chiefs RB Derrick Gore was elevated from the practice squad this past week and added some energy to the offense, rushing for 48 yards and a TD in his first sustained action. Interestingly, he was in for 16 snaps and touched the ball 11 times, which could be something to watch for in future weeks (also for fantasy owners, be wary of the touch rate as this is unlikely to be sustainable).
Trick: This was a Chiefs victory that did not feel much like a victory over what should’ve been an overmatched Giants team that was missing four skill position players, including RB Saquon Barkley. Sure they are 4-4, seemingly like every other team in the AFC, but the offense is still struggling. Patrick Mahomes threw his league-leading 10th interception in the first quarter and was fortunately to get another potential pick called back as the Giants were offside on that play. The offense does not look as menacing as in past years as teams have done better at disguising defenses and using coverages better suited to defend deep passes, such as Cover 2 and 3 looks and put more pressure on the Chiefs QB than in previous years. Certainly the fear factor of Kansas City isn’t as prevalent as it was in the past three seasons.

APY FOOTBALL POOL RECAP

In the pool this week, the biggest treats were handed out to Gary, who scored a league-high 14 points this week, giving him 104 total points and landing him back into a tie for fifth place in the standings. Gary finished two points clear of the next best competitor and more than five points over the average of 8.6 points in Week 8.

With an 11 point week, Will has regained his lead at the top of the pool, with 109 points, one point ahead of Jerome, and two points ahead of Sam. Paul is in fourth with 105 points, while Gary, Neil, and Donna P are in a tie for fifth at 104.

NameTotal
Will109
Jerome108
Sam107
Paul105
Gary104
Neil104
Donna P104
Justin103
Jason G103
Alessandro103
Joe L103
Salvo102
Molly102
Darryl100
CSA Red Bulls99
Lourdes99
Baldip97
Marcus97
Denzil97
Adam97
Courtney96
Joe S96
Farhan96
Team Bracken96
Quinn95
Terry95
Tom95
Marcel & Aiden94
Ronda94
Keville94
Jason R93
David93
Steve93
Jason H93
Jay P92
Des91
Matt90
Nigel88
Predictor87
Darren87
Donna K84
Mark 78
Dwayne61
Ruby19
Average95.907

🏈NFL WEEK 8 SUNDAY🏈

This week we have a lot of games that looked really good on paper but maybe don’t have the same cachet now. In the Dallas-Minnesota game, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is considered a game-time decision. Not great since we need picks by 1 pm but the line has dropped from Dallas +1 to Minnesota -2.5, which shows what Vegas is predicting for Prescott’s status tonight

TimeDateAwayHomeLinePredictor
1:0031-OctCarolinaAtlanta-2.5Atlanta
1:0031-OctTennesseeIndianapolis-3Indianapolis
1:0031-OctMiamiBuffalo-15Buffalo
1:0031-OctCincinnatiNY Jets11.5NY Jets
1:0031-OctPittsburghCleveland-5Pittsburgh
1:0031-OctPhiladelphiaDetroit3Detroit
1:0031-OctLA RamsHouston16.5LA Rams +1
1:0031-OctSan FranciscoChicago4.5Chicago
4:0531-OctNew EnglandLA Chargers-4LA Chargers +1
4:0531-OctJacksonvilleSeattle-4Seattle +1
4:2531-OctTampa BayNew Orleans4New Orleans
4:2531-OctWashingtonDenver-4Washington +1
8:2031-OctDallasMinnesota-2.5Minnesota
8:2001-NovNY GiantsKansas City-10.5Kansas City

The Predictor makes all his picks before the season starts. Now that we’re actually at Week 8, it looks like a random pick generator.

🚨WEEK 8 TNF: PACKERS AT CARDINALS🚨

A big matchup with implications for NFC seedings as the 6-1 Packers travel to Arizona to take on the unbeaten Cardinals.
The Packers WRs have been hit with COVID, as Davante Adams and Allen Lazard will both miss this game after testing positive for the virus
For the Cardinals, DE JJ Watt suffered a shoulder injury that requires surgery and will likely end his season.

Line: Cardinals -6.5
Predictor: Arizona
Matt: Arizona

While I would shy away from taking the Cardinals at -6.5, this pool only requires that you pick a winner, so I’m going with the league’s only unbeaten team to continue that trend tonight.

APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL: WEEK 7 WRAP UP

The critically acclaimed movie The Waterboy, one of the many movies churned out by Adam Sandler towards the end of the last millennium, is about an oft-mocked waterboy for the South Central Louisiana State University football team who leverages his repressed anger into becoming a vicious tackling machine at the college football level. With the help of the Waterboy, here is the review of Week 7 in the NFL:

  1. “So that’s what opening a can of whoop ass feels like”
    “Son, you just opened a whole case of whoop ass”

    After unleashing years of anger and abuse on the Mud Dogs’ antagonistic QB Guy Grenouille, Bobby Boucher and Coach Klein discuss the tackle that turns him from waterboy into star linebacker. This could’ve also been the conversation with the New England Patriots and… well, I can’t go this far. I can’t imagine Bill Belichick saying this… but regardless, the Patriots opened a case of whoop ass on the Jets, beating them by a score of 54-13. The 54 points scored by the Pats represents the most points scored by a team in a single game all season. Their previous high score was 29 points in the Week 6 loss to the Cowboys. Will this game serve as a turning point for New England? In their three wins, they defeated the Jets twice and Texans once. While they were competitive in losses to the Dolphins, Buccaneers, and Cowboys, if they are to contend for a playoff spot, they’ll need to turn those other close losses into wins.
  2. “Water sucks. It really really sucks”
    Coach Klein’s motivational gambit for tackling machine Bobby Boucher could’ve also been applied to the crazy weather systems hitting the west coast which impacted both the primetime games – Colts-Niners on Sunday, then Saints-Seahawks on Monday. The rain was cited often, especially in the Sunday night game, where the torrential downpour resulted in a number of dropped passes, including a dropped INT by Niners CB Emmanuel Moseley that hit him right in the helmet. Rumours of a farmer gathering two of every animal outside the stadium went unconfirmed.
  3. “Oh no! We suck again!”
    When the townsfolk discover that Bobby Boucher cannot play in the upcoming game, they come to the realization that the team will go back to its mediocre ways. After starting off 3-0, both the Broncos and Panthers had reason to feel optimistic that things had turned around for each franchise. However, as the competition became more intense for each team, their flaws have since been exposed and they are both now sitting at 3-4, with the prospect of lost seasons staring both franchises and their fans in the face. The Panthers 25-3 loss at the hands of the lowly New York Giants was especially dispiriting, as QB Sam Darnold was pulled late in the game for PJ Walker, opening up renewed questions about Darnold’s future as a starting quarterback in the NFL.
  4. You can do it!
    The townie’s catchphrase to the Waterboy also serves as an exhortation to the Cincinnati Bengals, who now hold a 5-2 record after laying waste to division rivals Baltimore Ravens 41-17. The Bengals fell behind 17-13 early in the third quarter after a 39 yard TD pass from Lamar Jackson to Hollywood Brown, only for the Bengals to explode for four consecutive touchdowns to end the game. The Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase connection is as strong as ever after the rookie WR caught a short pass from Burrow and went 82 yards to the house, putting a bow on an 8-catch, 201-yard day. After five years of mediocrity, the Bengals are a force to be reckoned with in the AFC in 2021.
  5. “Everybody already is laughing at us. We haven’t won a game since nineteen-ninety-FOUR”
    When Guy Grenouille bemoans the addition of Bobby Boucher to the team, Lyle Robideaux chimes in to remind him that the Mud Dogs already stunk. While the Detroit Lions don’t have any polarizing players on their roster to this point, they still remain the league’s only winless team after losing, albeit gamely, to the Los Angeles Rams, 28-19. The Lions have a home date with the Eagles this weekend as they hope to get into the win column for the first time this season.

POOL RECAP
As in Week 6, we had a number of contestants tie for the top honours in Week 7, with seven participants scoring 14 points. In order of the current standings:

Jerome’s 14 points put him in the lead. He now has 99 points
Donna P is now tied for third with 96
Neil is tied for sixth with 94
Molly is tied for eighth at 93
CSA Red Bulls and Tom are each tied for 18th at 88 points
Quinn is in a tie for 27th spot with 86 points

In the overall standings, Jerome is, as noted above, the leader with 99 points through seven weeks
Will follows closely behind with 98
Donna P, Sam, and Paul are all tied for third place with 96 points apiece.

Here are the full standings:

NameTotal
Jerome99
Will98
Donna P96
Sam96
Paul96
Neil94
Keville94
Molly93
Joe L93
Jason G92
Alessandro92
Salvo92
Darryl91
Lourdes91
Justin91
Gary90
Team Bracken89
CSA Red Bulls88
Tom88
Marcus88
Denzil88
Adam88
Jason H87
Joe S87
Farhan87
Darren87
Quinn86
Terry86
Jay P86
Steve86
Ronda85
Courtney85
Baldip85
David84
Matt84
Marcel & Aiden84
Jason R83
Donna K83
Des81
Predictor80
Nigel79
Mark 70
Dwayne51
Ruby19
Average87.279

🚨TNF: Broncos at Browns 🚨

In tonight’s matchup, the 3-3 Denver Broncos travel to Cleveland to take on the 3-3 Browns. Cleveland has a number of injured players, including their QB Baker Mayfield, and both top RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. However, WR Jarvis Landry will return to the lineup and both Odell Beckham Jr and LT Jedrick Wills will play despite their questionable statuses

Line: Browns -1.5
Predictor: Browns +1
Matt: Browns

Handicapping the MVP Race

It’s still really, really early, but there has been a lot of talk about which player deserves recognition as the league’s MVP. When people talk about a player (or specifically, a quarterback) being a top 3, 5, or 10 player at the position, one has to take into consideration that, well, the pool of talent is Mariana Trench deep. Take a look at the stats for the top quarterbacks in the league this year:

PlayerTeamRecordComp%PYPGTDINTYPASKRYDSTDFUMRateQBROdds*
Kyler MurrayARI6-073.8%2901448.91211636116.268+450
Dak PrescottDAL5-173.1%3021648.48700611555.4+450
Josh AllenBUF4-264.8%2871537.5821423103.664.5+500
Tom BradyTB5-168.5%3441737.79371210866.4+800
Matthew StaffordLAR5-169.5%3061649.262601116.675+1200
Aaron RodgersGB5-166.7%2391237.7132720104.665.5+1200
Lamar JacksonBAL5-167.5%281958.7163922599.362.6+1200
Justin HerbertLAC4-265.4%2951447.211721198.861.6+1400
Patrick MahomesKC3-369.0%3151887.81018412103.170.9+1800
* – odds source: Draft Kings Sportsbook, October 19th

There’s a compelling argument for each player on this list, also an argument against each player (as flimsy as it may be in some cases).

Before continuing, and in fairness to Russell Wilson, he was having a typically great Russell Wilson season before going down with a broken and dislocated middle finger in Week 5 – he was lapping the field with a 125 rating, though his QBR was around the middle of the pack, but his other stats were in line with those above. If Wilson comes back ahead of schedule and leads the Seahawks back from the abyss, he’ll receive consideration. For the purposes of answering the question of “who will be NFL MVP?”, he’s off the list until otherwise noted.

Other Honourable Mentions:
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee (+2500): the only plausible non-QB to get any MVP talk, Henry is having an even better start to the 2021 season than he had in 2020, when he rushed for 2,027 yards. With the 17-game schedule, the rushing record set by Eric Dickerson of 2,105 yards is absolutely in play. Henry currently has 783 yards and 10 TDs.
Derek Carr (+6500) and Joe Burrow (+10000): both QBs are off to great starts with teams that have started the season surprisingly well, as the Raiders and Bengals are both 4-2. Much work is ahead for both QBs if they are to force their way into the MVP conversation, but their strong starts are noted.

The contrasts of the list are worth mentioning:
1. Four QBs on this list are 25 or under, and of course you have the soon-to-be 38 year old Aaron Rodgers and the 44 year old Tom Brady representing the old heads.
2. Dual threat QBs Jackson, Murray, and Allen appear on this list, as do the pocket QBs Brady and Stafford, and those that reside in the middle ground.

KYLER MURRAY, ARIZONA CARDINALS
Cardinals: 6-0, first, NFC West, last unbeaten team
Marquee Win: at Rams 37-20, Week 4

While the defense has taken an enormous step forward for the Cardinals this season, the Cardinals diminutive dynamo has started the 2021 as he started the 2020 season, with his do-it-all ability leading the Cardinals offense and bringing with it talk of winning the MVP. Murray’s passing stats are just barely behind that of Stafford, while his lightning-fast speed has led to 116 yards on the ground and 3 TDs.
Argument for MVP: Explosiveness and efficiency. Not only does Kyler Murray have one of the highest YPA in the league, at 8.9, but he also leads the league with a 73.8% completion percentage. Murray is quick and elusive with the ball in his hands as well, and is able to use his speed to hurt teams with his legs when needed. Being the QB of a 6-0 team doesn’t hurt either.
Argument against MVP: Ball security and injury risk. His six fumbles are tied for the league lead (with Dak Prescott), including four in Week 6, though Murray has been fortunate that the Cardinals have recovered them all. Teams are generally not fortunate enough to recover fumbles at this rate, so Murray will need to do a better job of protecting the football going forward. While not an argument against, Murray did fade in the middle of last season, as hits took their toll on his smaller stature – this is likely to be an issue throughout his career, and he will need to ensure he takes fewer hard hits as the cumulative impact wears on.
Remaining Statement Games: vs Packers, Week 8; vs Rams, Week 14; at Cowboys, Week 17

DAK PRESCOTT, DALLAS COWBOYS
Cowboys: 5-1, first, NFC East
Marquee Win: at Chargers 20-17, Week 2

Odds to win MVP: +450 (source: Draft Kings Sportsbook)
After suffering a grotesque broken ankle injury against the Giants last year, the jury was out on whether Dak Prescott could return to become the same QB he was prior to the injury. His contract was up, and following a franchise tag in 2020, there were questions about whether the Cowboys should sign him long-term with the injury risk (he would later sign a four-year $160 million contract to remain with the Boys). After six games, he looks even better than he was before. Prescott’s Cowboys are 5-1 due to a few factors: their revamped defense under DC Dan Quinn, the improved play of a, now healthy, offensive line, and the return of Dak Prescott. The Cowboys have won five in a row since losing a heartbreaker on opening night against the defending champs. And while the rest of the division is terrible this year, their non-division games are tough (Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, and Cardinals still left), so plenty of opportunities to add to the resumé.
Argument for MVP: Improved play by Cowboys, across the board statistical excellence. Prescott is among the league leaders in passing yards, TDs, QB rating, and yards per attempt, and is second in completion percentage, only marginally behind Kyler Murray. Last season, the Cowboys were completely lost with their backup QBs (Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci, and Garrett Gilbert all started at least one game in 2020), and while the defense has a lot to say about their success in 2021, they would not be 5-1 without Dak Prescott.
Argument against MVP: Ball security. Prescott’s six fumbles (and three lost fumbles) lead the league. As with Kyler Murray, he needs to do a better job of protecting the football, or this issue may come back to haunt him as the season progresses.
Both good and bad for Dak Prescott’s MVP case: Cowboys supporting cast. Dallas’ supporting cast is so good as to potentially impact Prescott’s ceiling as MVP. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are one of the best wide receiver combinations, Dalton Schultz is fourth in the league in tight end receiving yards at 358, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have combined for 887 yards and 6 TDs through six weeks, and the offensive line has been outstanding.
Remaining Statement Games: at Chiefs, Week 11; vs Cardinals, Week 17

JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO BILLS
Bills: 4-2, first, AFC East
Marquee Win: at Chiefs 38-20, Week 5
Odds to win MVP: +500

Following a poor showing in the first week of the season against the Steelers, the Bills woke up and have scored 187 points in their past five games. Despite last week’s loss in a thriller at Tennessee, the Bills should traipse to a division win in the awful AFC East and their record in the conference should afford them a decent seed, and potentially Josh Allen MVP hype. In 2020, Allen put his prodigious tools together and became the prototypical modern quarterback: he’s big, has a rocket launcher of an arm, can run, and has enough strength to absorb the blows of the pass rush, and has the agility to leap over tacklers. He has carried that form on to 2021.
Argument for MVP: Ground game, Wow throws, protects the football (for now). While skepticism exists about whether he can keep this up, Allen has turned the ball over only four times in six games, and fumbled three times. If he can continue to throw 50-60+ yard bombs while avoiding interceptions, his performances will likely force voters into ticking his name for MVP. His ability to run – he’s the Bills’ de facto short yardage back – turns into additional production, and he’s scored at least 8 rushing TDs in each of his previous three seasons.
Argument against MVP: Low completion percentage, cupcake schedule. Even the NFC East leading Cowboys can be envious of the Bills’ schedule. With 11 games left, the Bills have two games scheduled against teams with records presently above .500: the Saints on US Thanksgiving night, and the defending champs in Week 14. Allen’s completion percentage is another factor – Allen no longer resides in the 50s as he did in his first two seasons, but the completion percentage is down 5% from last season to 64.8%, which is lower than any of the 10 candidates discussed here, and significantly lower than all except Justin Herbert.
Remaining Statement Game: at Bucs, Week 14

TOM BRADY, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Buccaneers: 5-1, first, NFC South
Marquee Win: at Cowboys 31-29, Week 1
Odds to win MVP: +800

Nothing about Tom Brady can be considered surprising anymore. At an age where most players have long since retired, put on 50 lbs, and have been fitted for bionic joints, Tom Brady is still putting up numbers that can rival any QB in the league – 6 Pro Football Hall of Famers* are younger than Brady, including LaDainian Tomlinson, who was enshrined in the 2017 class! With the sixth-worst passing defense in the league, the Bucs have needed Brady to play like his younger version, and with the embarrassment of riches on offense, he has been equal to the task so far this season.
Argument for MVP: Passing numbers and protecting the football. Brady is thPatrick Mahomes in passing TD, with 17 through six games. Brady has only turned the ball over four times all season, including two interceptions in Week 1.
Argument against MVP: More dynamic choices and Brady fatigue. We all know that most commentators have already long considered Brady the Greatest of All Time and, much like the NBA with LeBron James, such greatness means that the expectations for each player is to compete at an MVP level every season, regardless of age. That said,
Both good and bad for Brady’s MVP case: Buccaneers offense. Much like Dak Prescott, Tom Brady is surrounded by incredible talent at all offensive positions – Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin form a strong WR room, while Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and OJ Howard provide a lot of talent and depth at TE. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are more than capable RBs, while the offensive line may be the best in the league.
Remaining Statement Game: vs Bills, Week 14

[* – Tomlinson, Brian Urlacher, Champ Bailey, Troy Polamalu, Edgerrin James, and Charles Johnson all have yellow jackets and are younger than Brady]

MATTHEW STAFFORD, LA RAMS
Rams: 5-1, second, NFC West
Marquee Win: vs Bucs 34-24, Week 3

Odds to win MVP: +1200
When the Rams sent two firsts, a third, and Jared Goff to the Lions to get Matthew Stafford, this is what they were looking for. Stafford has opened up the Rams defense in a way that Goff was never able to do – specifically, the deep part of the field. Adding Stafford to the offense, and adding that offense to the Rams elite defense, has turned the Rams from playoff contender to Super Bowl contender.
Argument for MVP: Elevated the Rams with explosive plays. Stafford leads the league with 9.2 yards per pass, and has already thrown for 16 TDs. The Rams will Goff were a 10-6 team last season, but they never really felt like the sum of their parts due to the deficiencies in the offense. With Stafford, the offense has been supercharged.
Argument against MVP: Higher ceiling for other candidates. There really hasn’t been anything not to like about what Stafford has done this season, though his performance against the Cardinals, and another MVP front-runner Kyler Murray, was less than desirable. Stafford’s risk will be more against narrative, such as if a do-it-all QB like Murray or Lamar Jackson continue at their respective paces.
Remaining Statement Games: at Packers, Week 12; at Cardinals, Week 14; at Ravens, Week 17

AARON RODGERS, GREEN BAY PACKERS
Packers: 5-1, first, NFC North
Marquee Win: at Bengals 25-22, Week 5
Odds to win MVP: +1200

To say Aaron Rodgers’ offseason was eventful would be an understatement. To the rumours that he did not want to return to Green Bay due to a power struggle with the team – which Rodgers later deemed “an exaggeration” – to his week as a guest host of Jeopardy!, to his brutally (and refreshingly) honest press conference after the first day of practice in training camp, questions abounded as to whether he wanted out, wanted to stay (with changes), or was ready to retire. After a Week 1 dismantling of the Packers at the hands of the Saints, those questions seemed to have intensified. Since then, the Packers have won five in a row and are in their customary first place spot in the NFC North. As always seems to be the case with Rodgers, any turmoil is met with strong play and removal of doubts. An ominous schedule looms for the Packers though, which will test their mettle as the season wears on.
Argument for MVP: Protects the ball. As he has throughout his career, Aaron Rodgers is one of the league’s best at protecting the football. Rodgers has thrown only three interceptions in six games and has not committed a fumble.
Argument against MVP: Lack of strong statistics. Aside from the lack of turnovers, there isn’t one other stat in his line that screams MVP. He’s thrown for fewer yards than anyone else, fewer TDs than all except Lamar Jackson, and picks his spots a lot more in the run game. He’ll need to do more in the next 11 games to improve his candidacy.
Both good and bad for Rodgers’ MVP resume: Murderous schedule. The Packers still must travel to Arizona, Kansas City, and Baltimore – Arizona and KC in back-to-back weeks – while they also host Seattle (who should have Russell Wilson back by then), the Rams, and Cleveland. Despite divisional matchups that should inspire confidence, that schedule has many pitfalls in its path.
Remaining Statement Games: at Cardinals, Week 8, at Chiefs, Week 9, vs Rams, Week 12, at Ravens, Week 15

LAMAR JACKSON, BALTIMORE RAVENS
Ravens: 5-1, first, AFC North
Marquee Win: vs Chiefs 36-35, Week 2
Odds to win MVP: +1200

Lamar Jackson’s ability as a passer has taken a big step up this season. While Jackson did throw for 36 TD passes in his MVP season in 2019, there has been a noticeable improvement in his accuracy and in his ability to pick apart zone defenses. His 281 yard average his by far the most of his career (previous high was 208) while still maintaining a 1,000 yard pace (technically, he’d need the extra game at his current 65 rypg pace). Given his three come from behind fourth quarter wins (vs KC, at Detroit, vs Indy), it is somewhat surprising that his odds are not higher than this.
Argument for MVP: Better passing stats to add to his elite run skills. Prior to this season, Jackson had one game where he threw for over 300 yards – the first game of his MVP season in 2019. So far this season, Lamar Jackson has two (in back-to-back weeks) against the Broncos and Colts, all while not sacrificing much in terms of his running ability. Aside from Josh Allen, no other QB has half as many rushing yards as the Ravens QB’s 392.
Argument against MVP: Ball security, passing issues (at times). Fumbles have been an issue throughout his career, as Jackson has already put the ball on the ground 36 times in not quite 3.5 seasons, including five so far in 2021. His 3 lost fumbles (2 at Raiders, 1 vs Indy) were also in key spots, either gifting the other team great field position late (as was the case in the Raiders loss) or fumbling away a scoring drive (as he did when fumbling near the goal line against the Colts). While fumbles have more or less been accepted as part of the risk of Lamar Jackson, he is has also thrown 5 interceptions so far this season. The passing issues have also cropped up this season, with poor passing games against the Lions (in which they needed a record-setting field goal to beat the still winless Lions), and Chargers – a game which was won mostly by the defense. When Jackson has a bad passing game, the critics tend to use this against his ability as a passer, which may lessen his candidacy in the eyes of voters.
Remaining Statement Games: vs Packers, Week 15; vs Rams, Week 17

JUSTIN HERBERT, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Chargers: 4-2, t-first, AFC West
Marquee Win: at Chiefs 30-24, Week 3
Odds to win MVP: +1400

Would the Dolphins pick Tua Tagovailoa again if they had the chance? With the fifth overall pick, the Dolphins selected Tua, following a stellar career at Alabama. The problem? Tagovailoa suffered a near-catastrophic broken and dislocated hip injury in his final college season at Mississippi State, which was expected to need recovery well into his first NFL season. The Dolphins gambled anyways and went for Tua Time. With the sixth pick, the Chargers went for former Oregon QB Justin Herbert. In college, Herbert was an extremely talented QB though at times he wouldn’t perform at his best in big games. After drafting Herbert, the Chargers paired him with QB-coaching guru Pep Hamilton to learn the ropes while expecting to spend the 2020 season with Tyrod Taylor under centre. Fate would intervene though, and a freak medical accident landed Taylor in the hospital and Herbert in as starter – a role he wouldn’t relinquish. Herbert was able to put his prodigious tools together in the pros and put up great numbers as a rookie. Now, accompanied by a strong defense and a risk-taking head coach, the Chargers have a team to be reckoned with… and a star QB in the making.
Argument for MVP: Big arm, ball security. Justin Herbert has one of the strongest throwing arms in the league – and in a league with so many rocket-armed QBs, that is a feat in itself – he is in the top portion of the yards per game and TD stats, while turning the ball over only five times in total this season. His tape from Week 3 to Week 5 is as strong as any in the league.
Argument against MVP: Poor games, numbers not quite as strong as top candidates. While his Week 3-5 tape is strong, those games were bookended by poorer games against the Cowboys and, especially, against the Ravens. The game against the Ravens in particular was difficult as the Chargers were only able to put up six points against the Ravens defense which had its struggles early in the season. Herbert’s ceiling is MVP candidate but moving up from the second or third tier to the top tier may be too much of a challenge in Year Two for him to overcome.
Remaining Statement Games: vs Chiefs, Week 15

PATRICK MAHOMES, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Chiefs: 3-3, t-third, AFC West
Marquee Win: vs Browns 33-29, Week 1
Odds to win MVP: +1800

To be quite honest, Patrick Mahomes does not deserve to win the MVP after his first six weeks. The Chiefs defense has been awful, but Mahomes has made some uncharacteristic mistakes this season too (the INTs against the Ravens in Week 2 and the first one against Washington in Week 6 were especially awful). He is still in the conversation because he could go on a tear at any moment and bring the Chiefs back into playoff – and even Super Bowl – contention.
Argument for MVP: Gaudy passing stats. Mahomes leads the league in passing TDs with 18, and is third in average yards per game, at 315. Mahomes is also second in QBR with 70.4 (incidentally, his worst QBR as a starter by some margin.
Argument against MVP: Too many interceptions/forcing bad passes. Patrick Mahomes is great at turning a broken play into a big yardage but he has been forcing the issue on too many passes this season. Sometimes it works and he looks like a genius, but this season, he has seen his fair share of forced plays turning into awful looking plays.
Remaining Statement Games: at Titans, Week 7; vs Cowboys, Week 11

After six weeks, my rankings would be split up into three tiers, as follows:
1. Kyler Murray
2. Dak Prescott
——————–
3. Lamar Jackson
4. Tom Brady
5. Josh Allen
6. Matthew Stafford
——————–
7. Justin Herbert
8. Aaron Rodgers
9. Patrick Mahomes

I agree with the oddsmakers that Murray and Prescott deserve the greatest amount of consideration for the league MVP after six weeks. However, do feel that the case for Lamar Jackson is being sold sort, though a not-so-good Week 6 may be adding some recency bias into the equation. Brady, Allen, and Stafford all have solid cases, while Herbert, Rodgers, and Mahomes all would need to add to their résumés to gain serious consideration. If Derrick Henry continues at his current pace, voters will need to give him his due as well.

Week 7 NFL Schedule

There are 13 games on the NFL schedule this weekend. Admittedly, many of these games lack the marquee value of previous weeks, though the Chiefs-Titans and Bengals-Ravens games are the most important matchups of the week. Good luck everyone!

TimeDateAwayHome
8:2021-OctDenverCleveland
1:0024-OctKansas CityTennessee
1:0024-OctWashingtonGreen Bay
1:0024-OctCincinnatiBaltimore
1:0024-OctCarolinaNY Giants
1:0024-OctAtlantaMiami
1:0024-OctNY JetsNew England
4:0524-OctPhiladelphiaLas Vegas
4:0524-OctDetroitLA Rams
4:2524-OctChicagoTampa Bay
4:2524-OctHoustonArizona
8:2024-OctIndianapolisSan Francisco
8:2025-OctNew OrleansSeattle

APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL: WEEK 6 STANDINGS

In Week 6, while many of the games – especially the 1 pm games – were in the bag early, we did have a lot of close games in the primetime and morning slots:
The Eagles were down big to the Buccaneers, by as much as 28-7 early in the third quarter, but mounted a comeback to make the game competitive. We had a great moment in gambling history when the Eagles went for, and got, the two point conversion to reduce the deficit to 6 and provide a backdoor cover on a game in which the Bucs were favoured by 7.
The Jaguars got off the schneid (H/T Chris Berman) to defeat the Dolphins 23-20 in the game in London on Sunday morning. Miami, which does not own their first round draft pick, are now cratering hard at 1-5, a one point win at Foxborough being their only positive result of the season.
The Seahawks and Steelers played a hotly contested affair at Hines Field, with the Seahawks erasing a 14-0 halftime deficit to tie the game 20-20 in the final seconds, only for the Steelers to win the game in overtime.
The Monday night game was a hotly contested matchup as the Bills, inside the Titans 5 with under a minute to go, went for it on a fourth-and-inches, only for Josh Allen to be stuffed on a QB sneak by DT Jeffery Simmons. The Titans, now 4-2, have a stranglehold on the awful (apart from them) AFC South, while the Bills still enjoy a comfortable 2 game lead on the Patriots in the equally terrible AFC East.

This week’s top score was 15 points, shared by a number of people. Congrats to everyone who held the honours for this week – as
Sam – now tied for 4th place
Salvo – also tied for 4th
Alessandro – 6th place
Joe L – 9th place
Darryl – 15th place
Darren – tied for 17th
Brackens – also tied for 17th

Overall, we have a new leader – Will sets the pace now with 86 points! Paul and Jerome are each just one point back at 85, while Sam and Salvo are tied for fourth with 84. Twelve participants have 80 or more points, while 21 people are within 10 points of the top spot. We have just reached the one-third point in the season, so there is a lot of time still to catch up!

Here are the full standings after six weeks:

NameTotal
Will86
Paul85
Jerome85
Sam84
Salvo84
Alessandro82
Keville82
Donna P82
Joe L81
Jason G81
Neil80
Gary80
Molly79
Justin79
Darryl78
Lourdes78
Darren77
Team Bracken77
Adam77
Marcus76
Denzil76
Steve75
Joe S75
Farhan75
CSA Red Bulls74
Tom74
Jason H74
Baldip74
Terry73
Jay P73
Matt72
Quinn72
Marcel & Aiden72
Courtney72
Donna K72
Ronda72
Jason R71
Predictor69
Des68
Nigel67
Mark 60
David71
Dwayne51
Ruby19
Average75.465

🏈NFL FOOTBALL SUNDAY – WEEK 6🏈

With four teams on bye and two games already in the books, a lighter schedule than usual for Week 6 Sunday – the two big games of the day: Chargers at Ravens at 1 and Cardinals at Browns at 4. Lots of road dogs, so lots of uncertainty in today’s card.

TimeDateAwayHomeLinePredictor
1:0017-OctMinnesotaCarolina2Carolina
1:0017-OctLA ChargersBaltimore-3Baltimore +1
1:0017-OctLA RamsNY Giants7.5LA Rams +1
1:0017-OctHoustonIndianapolis-10.5Indianapolis +1
1:0017-OctKansas CityWashington6.5Kansas City
1:0017-OctGreen BayChicago5.5Green Bay
1:0017-OctCincinnatiDetroit3.5Detroit
4:0517-OctArizonaCleveland-3Cleveland
4:2517-OctDallasNew England3.5New England
4:2517-OctLas VegasDenver-5Denver
8:2017-OctSeattlePittsburgh-5Seattle
8:2018-OctBuffaloTennessee6Tennessee

🚨🏈THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL – BUCCANEERS AT EAGLES🏈🚨

The Week 6 edition of Thursday Night Football takes place at the home of Ben Simmons, Philadelphia, where the 2-3 Eagles host the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. Philly is coming off a road win at Carolina, while the 4-1 Bucs just demolished the Dolphins at home.

Talent-wise, this game looks like a mismatch, though the Eagles have been surprisingly strong in the secondary, ranking 3rd-best in yards allowed through the air, at 973 through five games, which includes matchups against the Cowboys and Chiefs. Can they slow down the dominant Bucs offense, while taking advantage of the league’s worst pass defense?

Line: Buccaneers: -7
Predictor: Buccaneers +1
Matt: Buccaneers