🚨🚨 ALL WEEKEND PICKS DUE BY 1:00 PM SATURDAY, DUE TO THE HEAVY CHRISTMAS EVE SCHEDULE 🚨🚨
Coming into this weekend, one team in the history of the NFL had come back from being down 30 points or more – the 1992-93 Bills, who found themselves down 35-3 to the Houston Oilers in the Wild Card Round. The Bills, who didn’t even sell the game out and thus caused a blackout in the Buffalo broadcast region (which, inconveniently enough, included the GTA), came back to beat the Oilers 41-38 in overtime. Last weekend, the moribund Indianapolis Colts stormed to a 33-0 halftime lead on the 10-3 Vikings, only to have the Vikings go on a 36-3 run in the second half (including 29 consecutive points) to take the game to overtime. In overtime, the Vikings needed nearly all 10 minutes, with Greg Joseph kicking a 40 yard field goal with 7 seconds left to preserve the win and keep Minny’s faint hopes alive of getting the 1 seed in the NFC.
In other news, we have just three weeks left to the end of the NFL season and there is still much to be decided. Five divisions are more or less set (some mathematical chances notwithstanding): Divisions Clinched: AFC WEST – Kansas City NFC NORTH – Minnesota NFC WEST – San Francisco
Playoff Spots Clinched: Philadelphia – also one win or Dallas loss from clinching NFC EAST and one win or Minnesota loss and Dallas loss from clinching homefield advantage throughout playoffs Buffalo – also one win or Miami loss from clinching AFC EAST Dallas – clinched a playoff spot and can clinched the 5 seed with a win AND Giants loss
Divisions still up for grabs: AFC NORTH – Cincinnati holds a one game lead over Baltimore, however Baltimore won the first matchup. These teams play in Week 18 in Cincinnati, which may decide the division. AFC SOUTH – Tennessee (7-7) holds a one game lead over the surging Jacksonville Jaguars (yes, you read that right). Jacksonville won the first game and get the Jets and Texans on the road before a potential division deciding Week 18 game at home to the Titans. The Titans host the Texans this weekend and the Cowboys next weekend before that Week 18 showdown. NFC SOUTH – Tampa Bay (6-8) “leads” this terrible division, holding a one game lead over the Panthers, Falcons, and Saints. The teams don’t deserve more analysis but the scenarios do, so let’s look at this turtle race a little closer: Tampa Bay (6-8, 3-1 in division) Remaining games: at Arizona, vs Carolina, at Atlanta Tiebreakers: New Orleans (sweep), Atlanta No tiebreaker: Carolina The Bucs easiest path to the playoffs includes a win over the Panthers and another one either over the Cardinals or Falcons. A loss to Carolina puts them in significant peril, as the Panthers would have the sweep and ensure their division record is better than Tampa’s in any multi-team scenario. Carolina (5-9, 3-1 in division) Remaining games: vs Detroit, at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans Tiebreakers: Tampa Bay, Atlanta (split, but better division record) No tiebreaker: New Orleans Carolina controls its destiny to the postseason – if they win out, they win the tiebreaker with Tampa and have a superior division record to the other teams. Even a loss to New Orleans isn’t fatal as long as they beat Tampa Bay (and realistically, if they beat the Lions too). New Orleans (5-9, 2-3) Remaining games: at Cleveland, at Philadelphia, vs Carolina Tiebreakers: swept Atlanta No tiebreakers: swept by Tampa Bay, lost to Carolina New Orleans is in trouble with the Eagles on the schedule and a need to win 2 more games than Tampa in the last three weeks. The good news is that Philly might have the 1 seed sewn up this weekend but the bad news is that the second team for Philly might be better than the Saints. They can win the division if the Saints and Falcons both finish 8-9 (and no one else does) but there’s no other tiebreaker scenario that works in their favour. Atlanta (5-9, 1-4) Remaining games: at Baltimore, vs Arizona, vs Tampa Bay Tiebreakers: none No tiebreakers: New Orleans (sweep), Carolina (split, with worse division record). lost to Tampa Of all the scenarios, the Falcons’ is the most dire – a 1-4 division record and a sweep by New Orleans means there’s no tiebreaker scenario for Atlanta at all, they MUST have more wins than the other three teams to take the division crown, which means they must take all three remaining games, including a win at Baltimore this weekend and they need help in the division.
APY POOL UPDATE In the pool, strong scores were the norm this week, with Terry topping us all with an 18 point week. Terry’s big week puts him in the top 20 in the pool and in second place in mini-pool C with just three weeks to go.
Donna P remains your leader with 184 points through 15 weeks. She kept her 4 point lead over Randy and, critically, is also a full 12 points over fifth-place Tom, meaning even a collapse still doesn’t put her outside the money spots. Randy’s 180 points puts him 3 points ahead of Fred (177), and seven points ahead of Darryl (173). The big race is for the fourth spot, with Tom (172), Adam (171), Jay (171), and the Brackens (170) just off that pace.
Here are the full pool standings:
Mini Pool Updates MPA: Mini-pool A is home to three of the four top performers in the league. In a way, this is actually good news for the rest, as Fred, Darryl, and Donna P are presently ineligible for a mini-pool prize. That leaves Joe S, Quinn, Keville, and Michelle in a tie for fourth, which is actually first, with 37 points. Darryl is at 44, which means if he falls out of the top 4, he’s a relative lock to take home the $20 MP prize.
MPB: Matt leads MPB with 43 points, just one small point over Jason R. Marcus, Anthony, and Jerome are all within striking distance, just two points off the pace. Randy is ineligible for this prize at is stands, but also has 41 points.
MPC: Steve leads the way in MPC with 43 points, one point ahead of Terry, and two ahead of the Brackens.
WEEK 16 SCHEDULE Another reminder, that due to most of the games being played on Saturday, all picks are due by 1:00 SATURDAY, not Sunday. Make sure you get your picks in on time or they will not count. The big two games of this weekend look to be in the 4 pm timeslot on Sunday, the Cowboys at Eagles and Commanders and Niners showdowns have tons of playoff implications. The Jags-Jets game on Thursday and the Giants-Vikings game on Saturday afternoon are also big-time matchups
Much time has been spent this year talking about surprises, outliers, and other unique teams, players, or situations, however, maybe it’s time to talk about something that has gone more or less according to expectations. Here are the AFC standings after 14 weeks: 1. Buffalo (10-3) 2. Kansas City (10-3) 3. Baltimore (9-4) 4. Tennessee (7-6) —————– 5. Cincinnati (9-4) 6. Miami (8-5) 7. New England (7-6)
If on Labour Day you showed someone these standings, they’d probably nod and say “looks about right”. Buffalo and Kansas City were the two strongest teams on paper, as they are now. Cincinnati and Baltimore are embroiled in a fight to win the AFC North, while Tennessee is well on its way to another AFC South division title. The Pats made the playoffs last year as a six seed and while the Dolphins started 2021 with a 1-7 record and ultimately fired Brian Flores after the season ended, they did end the season at 9-8 so the foundation was there – and that’s before adding Tyreek Hill and the unlocking of Tua Tagovailoa. You could point to the Titans disappointing record, the Jets being 7-6, or the implosions of the Raiders and the Broncos as being surprises but the top of the conference looks about as it should. The Bills and Chiefs should be the top two teams in the conference, while the Bengals are looking very much like the team that made the run to the Super Bowl last season – the final four weeks of the season should be very entertaining.
APY NFL POOL UPDATE In Week 14, the top scorer was Darryl, who scored 15 of a possible 17 points, correctly picking all 11 Sunday games and confidence picks therein. His big week strengthens his position, as he is now in 7th place, just 2 points out of the money spots.
At the top of the pool, Donna P continues to lead, now with 168 points which is four points clear of Randy in second place. Fred is two further points back in third place, with 162, while Tom occupies the final money spot at 159. Jay and Kevin are lurking, just one point behind Tom.
Mini-Pools MPA: Third place Fred has the most points in MPA but would get a better prize for finishing third, so the MPA prize would drop to Darryl, who holds 7th overall but second in the mini-pool. Darryl is level with Donna P (who would take the grand prize) and four points ahead of Michelle.
MPB: Being so far out of the running in the main pool has its advantages, which your friendly (and likely corrupt) pool administrator is presently taking advantage of, leading MPB by a mere one point over Anthony and Jerome.
MPC: The Brackens have a two point lead over everyone else in MPC, as Jay and the ineligible Tom lurk in the distance. There is, of course, a danger that the Brackens (and Jay for that matter) could slip into the top 4 but I’m sure they’ll take their chances.
🦃🦃🦃THURSDAY IS US THANKSGIVING! THREE GAMES PLAYED ON THURSDAY!!! 🦃🦃🦃
The 6-3 Jets went to Foxborough to take on the Patriots last weekend having lost 13 straight against their division rivals, the last win being a game in which Patriots coach Bill Belichick won the overtime coin flip and opted to kick, leading to a Jets game winning TD. Just two weeks prior, the Pats held the Jets in check in New Jersey, winning 22-17. The Patriots had the Jets number, but that number in Week 11 was considerably smaller than expected. The Patriots held the Jets to just 103 yards of total offense, including 37 yards and just two first downs for the visitors in the second half. But perhaps the most surprising fact of this game was that the Jets had the ball with less than 20 seconds left in a tie game. Granted, it was fourth down, but with the Jets on their own 32 yard line and punter Braden Mann to unleash his 10th punt of the game, everyone was bracing for another 10 minutes of football drudgery. Thankfully (for those in attendance), Patriots punt returner Marcus Jones had other ideas – he received the punt and went 84 yards for the game-winning touchdown. The Patriots won the game and continued their ownership of the Jets franchise. Now, all 4 AFC East teams are 7-3 or 6-4 and solidly in playoff contention.
APY POOL RESULTS Week 11 was generally a good week for poolies, with Jay and Michelle each having the best of the results, with 16 points apiece. Congrats to Jay and Michelle!
Overall, Donna remains in the league, but all of the buffer is now gone, as Donna’s lead over Randy is now 1 point. The two of them have increased the distance between themselves and the rest of the field though as Adam and Salvo find themselves in third place at 118, though six points behind Randy and seven behind Donna. Tom and Fred are tied for fifth place with 117 points.
A short list of everything that happened this week: 1. The Eagles, the NFL’s last undefeated team lost… on Monday night… at home… to a sub-.500 division rival. 2. The Colts hired a head coach from ESPN (Jeff Saturday) and went in to Las Vegas and beat the Raiders. 3. Tom Brady added yet another item to his Guinness Book of World Records-sized record book by becoming the first player to win a game in four different countries (USA, UK, Mexico, and now Germany) with the Bucs win over Seattle. 4. The Denver Broncos lost 17-10, marking the fifth time they’ve lost a game while surrendering less than 20 points. Taking the under in a Broncos game is getting to Service Academy levels – the under has hit in 8 of the Broncos’ 9 games. The one time they went over? A 32-23 loss against their Week 11 opponent, Las Vegas. That game also marks the most points the Broncos have allowed and scored themselves.
Of course, all of that pales to what is already being called the game of the season between the (now) 8-1 Vikings and the Bills in Orchard Park on Sunday. The Bills went ahead 27-10 in the third only for the Vikings to claw back the lead, aided by an 81 yard touchdown run by Dalvin Cook. Late in the fourth, with the Vikes still down 27-23, Minnesota mounted a methodical drive – read: threw up jump balls to Justin Jefferson, including this stunning, contested one-handed grab on 4th-and-18 – and got it all the way to the one-foot line before Buffalo made a goal-line stand on 4th and goal (one for which I could not find on YouTube). Of course, Buffalo’s going to win, right? Ah, no… on the next play from the one-inch line, Josh Allen fumbles the snap, which is promptly pounced on by the Vikings in the end zone for the go-ahead score! This happens with 41 seconds left which, of course, is more than enough time for Josh Allen and the Bills to end regulation with a game-tying field goal, sending it into overtime. In overtime, the Vikings get a field goal, so the Bills need a score to end (or prolong) the game. With the Bills moving down the field, Allen throws this pick to end the game. That loss dropped the Bills from first in the AFC to third in their division, with Buffalo now looking up at Miami and the Jets in the division (and just one game ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East basement). The Vikings, meanwhile, are now second only to the Eagles (the only team to beat them) in the NFC standings and four games up on the Packers in the NFC Central (with the head-to-head tiebreaker).
APY POOL UPDATE Our top scorer this week was Sam, who put up 13 points, including an impressive run that included wins by Carolina, Indy, Arizona, and Detroit. With that 13, she cracks the century mark and moves into 11th place.
Overall, Donna P continues her reign over the league, despite a bit of a slip-up, and now has 113 points and a 4 point lead over Randy. Salvo is in third place with 106 points, Paul is next with 105, and then there is a log-jam in fifth, with Tom, Kevin, Adam, and Fred all tied at 103.
If you’re a baseball fan, the letters UCL have grim implications. When a pitcher has a UCL strain, it’s usually only a matter of time before the other scary initials come into play – TJ (as in Tommy John, the pitcher from the 70s who became synonymous with elbow ligament replacement surgeries). Rest can sometimes help, but you’re usually headed for a trip to Birmingham, Alabama to visit Dr. James Andrews (or LA to visit Dr. Neal ElAttrache) and taking a year away from throwing baseballs for a living. In football, UCL damage is less common, but to the Bills fans who are also baseball fans, there were likely more than a few shudders when those cursed letters started being attached to Josh Allen. The Bills are “still evaluating” the extent of Allen’s injury, which could be seen as relief or still cause for panic, depending on who you speak to. In the meantime, pool confidence picks will hinge on the diagnosis and Josh Allen’s return to play.
Midseason rankings: As we have now officially reached the halfway point in the NFL season, the midseason rankings are being done by more or less anyone with a laptop, and of course we here at APY are no exception. The full piece comes out on Thursday, but here’s a look at one team in the rankings:
23. Indianapolis (3-5-1). One wonders what would’ve happened had the Indianapolis Colts defeated the NFL’s worst team in Week 18 last season. The Colts needed only to beat the Jaguars to earn a place in the playoffs. Instead, they embarrassingly lost to Jacksonville, creating a domino effect and, ultimately, to the firing of Frank Reich on November 7th. While Carson Wentz’s time with the team was obviously (and necessarily) up after that brutal loss, a playoff berth probably means the Colts keep Wentz at the job in 2022 and Reich likely gets some relief from the coaching hot seat this season. After acquiring turnover machine Matt Ryan, the Colts plummeted from playoff hopeful to bad. Jonathan Taylor’s injuries haven’t helped to be fair, though the Colts haven’t done much even in the games he’s been healthy for. Jim Irsay hired ESPN pundit Jeff Saturday to be their interim coach, which means the weird 2022 season is likely to continue well into the second half. Biggest revelation: Parris Campbell, WR. Campbell or Alec Pierce could’ve been selected here, but the revelation goes to Campbell, a second round draft pick in 2019 who suffered through an injury-riddled first three seasons in Indy before becoming the Colts’ favoured slot option, with 32 catches so far this season. A 60-catch pace may not be something to go crazy over, but given the start to his career, this is a solid season for the former Buckeye. Biggest disappointment: Certainly Matt Ryan deserves to be here, but his career was already running on fumes, his first half just extinguished those. The offensive line as a collective has been the biggest disappointment. In 2020, this unit was arguably the best front in the league, then LT Anthony Castonzo retired and the line hasn’t been the same since. In 2022, the LT spot has been a revolving door, with Matt Pryor, Bernhard Raimann, and Dennis Kelly all struggling to take the opportunity, but perhaps the biggest disappointment is to the right of that – 3-time first team All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson and 3-time Pro Bowl C Ryan Kelly have both been mediocre at best. The Colts have surrendered 35 sacks, the most in the league – Dallas, Jacksonville, and the Chargers haven’t allowed that many sacks combined.
APY FOOTBALL POOL RECAP The pool was divided this week into two factions: 1. The successful one, the one that did NOT choose the Bills +1 2. The less successful one, the one that DID choose the Bills +1 over the Jets.
There is yet another growing faction: those that did not send a Thursday pick. It may not hurt you when a toss-up game is being played on TNF but when it’s the Eagles and Texans, people are leaving two points on the table. So make sure you get your picks in!
When talking about factions, Salvo was definitely in the first faction – he avoided the Bills confidence landmine, picked up 14 points and was out top scorer of the week! That 14 point week allowed Salvo to move into fourth place in the standings, with 97.
At the top Donna P maintains her chokehold over the rest of the league, with 106 points, a full six points over second place Randy, who is the only other poolie to crack the century mark. Fred, with 98 points, sits in third, followed closely by Salvo in fourth. Adam rounds out the top five with 96 points.
Another week, another win for the Philadelphia Eagles, this time over the cross-state rival Pittsburgh Steelers1, as the league’s only undefeated team heads into the halfway point of the season with a Thursday nighter in Houston2. Presuming the two touchdown favourites take care of business on Thursday, the Eagles would be 8-0 and looking at the back half of the schedule. With the surviving members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins looking on with champagne stocked up, here’s a look at the Eagles remaining ten games to see where their banana peel might be:
Week 9: at Houston (1-5-1). Current odds: Eagles -13. Week 10: vs Washington (4-4). First game in 2022: Eagles 24, Commanders 8 Week 11: at Indianapolis (3-4-1) Week 12: vs Green Bay (3-5) Week 13: vs Tennessee (5-2) Week 14: at NY Giants (6-2) Week 15: at Chicago (3-5) Week 16: at Dallas (6-2). First game in 2022: Eagles 26, Cowboys 17. Week 17: vs New Orleans (3-5) Week 18: vs NY Giants (6-2)
As of right now, the only game the Eagles would realistically be an underdog in is the Christmas Eve game in Dallas, while the Week 14 game against the Giants would likely be a pick ’em if the teams continue at the same pace.
From likeliest to least likely, here’s where I think Philly may lose: 1. Week 16 at Dallas: The Cowboys spotted the Eagles a 20-0 lead before the Cowboys clawed back the deficit, making it 20-17 just after the start of the fourth quarter. Philly answered with a touchdown in the fourth to put the game away. The Cowboys have the closest thing to a complete team on Philly’s schedule and the return of Dak Prescott has re-opened big play capabilities that they didn’t have with Cooper Rush. If the results go their way, the Cowboys may still be in the hunt to win the division as well, so there is expected to be a lot at play here. 2. Week 14 at NY Giants: Under Brian Daboll, the Giants have completely turned around their fortunes from past years, with the team relying on a stout defense and a lot of Saquon Barkley to get them to 6-2. Their passing attack leaves a lot to desire but two cracks at the Eagles will be litmus tests for this team. 3. Week 13 vs Tennessee: After starting of very poorly, the Titans have reeled off five wins in a row behind Derrick Henry, who has four 100-yard rushing games in a row, including a 219 yard, 2 TD performance against the Texans last week. The best approach for the Titans in general is to feed Henry, and keep the ball out of the Eagles playmakers’ hands and wear down Philly’s defense is going to be even more crucial in this game. This will also be A.J. Brown’s first game against his former team – this may work on both sides: the Eagles won’t get caught up in the potential trap game due to Brown’s extra motivation, while the Titans will be seeing this as a revenge game, as Brown agitated for a departure from the team this offseason. 4. Week 12 vs Green Bay: When speaking of a trap game, you usually don’t think of the Packers as being that kind of team. However, this season has been a disaster for the Cheeseheads, as Matt LaFleur’s Packers have already lost more games this season than any other season in LaFleur’s five years with the team. The Packers showed some signs of life against the Bills, and ran for over 200 yards against one of the league’s best defenses, so we may see a path forward for them as a sort of smashmouth running team (like the Titans). 5. Week 18 vs NY Giants: If they’re still undefeated at this point, the Giants’ January visit will be the last thing standing between the Eagles and an undefeated season, so the Eagles and Giants would both be expected to go all-out here. If not, the Eagles will likely play their reserves as the division and a first round bye will be nearly assured with their tiebreaker over the Vikings and potentially Cowboys. 6. Week 15 at Chicago: There are a lot of elements of a trap game here: this game is the second game of a three game road trip, the other two games are against hated division rivals New York and Dallas, the Bears are coming off a Week 14 bye, the weather is iffy at the best of times in Chicago in December, and the Bears represent the fifth straight game against an opponent with a strong run game. The Bears themselves have trouble stopping the run, but if they can get ahead or at least keep it close, they can control the tempo using Montgomery (if he’s still there), Herbert, and Fields. 7. Week 10 vs Washington: The Eagles dominated the Commanders on their way to a 24-8 victory that really was a lot less of a contest than the scoreline indicates (the Commanders scored a garbage time TD right at the 2 minute warning of the fourth quarter). You can come to your own conclusions as to whether the Commanders are a better team with Taylor Heinicke at QB than Carson Wentz (Heinicke is 2-0 this season as a starter) but the team is also expecting to get Chase Young back by this game so life will be a little more difficult for Jalen Hurts than it was in Week 3. 8. Week 11 at Indianapolis: The Colts really haven’t been able to get things going this season, struggling on both sides of the ball in 2022. Their win over the Chiefs looks to be an anomaly, but it did happen – mostly due to horrific special teams play by Kansas City. Something similar would need to happen here though. 9. Week 17 vs New Orleans: Coming off a shutout of the Raiders, you may be wondering why the Saints are near the bottom of this list, but this is still an inconsistent team – they looked dominant against the Raiders last week, but looked completely lost the week before against Arizona. Whether it’s Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton at QB, mistakes will not be acceptable on the road against one of the best teams in the league. 10. Week 9 at Houston: No. The Texans allow 186 rushing yards per game. In Week 8, their offense mustered just 161 total yards, which included a 90 yard drive deep in garbage time.
1 – Did you know during World War II, the Eagles and Steelers joined forces to become the Steagles? 2 – Fittingly enough, the Houston Astros are facing the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series this week, including Game 5 in Philadelphia, competing directly against this game.
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RECAP AND STANDINGS In the pool this week, Jerome was our top scorer with 17 points. Our defending champ is looking to regain his 2021 form and get back into contention for the prizes. Overall, Donna P remains our leader with 93 points, five points ahead of second-place Randy, who has 88. Darryl is in the bronze medal position with 86, while Adam and Fred are just one point back in a share of fourth place.
If the season ended today, the playoff teams in the NFC would be: 1. NFC East: Philadelphia (6-0) 2. NFC North: Minnesota (5-1) 3. NFC West: Seattle (4-3) 4. NFC South (ugh): Tampa Bay (3-4) 5. The New York Football Giants (6-1) 6. Dallas (5-2) 7. Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
If you had the Giants and Seahawks on your NFC playoff teams parlay before the season started, you’re probably looking at real estate right now. The Bucs and Packers wallowing in sub-.500 mediocrity is quite surprising, even if some were predicting down years for the teams and the legends at quarterback. However, for each team, the immediate future does not look especially bright: Brady and Rodgers lost this weekend to P.J. Walker and Taylor Heinicke respectively, which is bad enough, but this week it goes from bad to worse as the Bucs welcome the Baltimore Ravens to town on Thursday, while the Packers get to make the slow death march* to Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills… as the Bills return from a bye week.
*- slow death march being equivalent to trying to board a plane at Pearson International Airport. Fortunately for the Pack, they’ll charter a plane and can avoid that place regardless
The interesting thing to consider here is that the Bucs still lead the NFC South and have tiebreakers over the Falcons and Saints for the division. They don’t have the tiebreaker over the Panthers, but if they end up tied with Carolina, they’ll probably be fighting over a top draft pick, so that would be to their advantage. Yes, the NFC South is a special kind of awful – the only team to win this week was the moribund Panthers, but that was only because they faced the division-leading Bucs and steamrolled them 21-3. The Falcons got blown out by the once-again feisty Bengals, while the Saints gave away a game to the equally awful Arizona Cardinals. In this division, the only team to really show any kind of life in recent weeks is Atlanta, a team that is – to put it charitably – short on talent, but at least they’re putting up a fight. The Panthers may move to that scrappy territory if they play the way they did on Sunday, though their talent levels did decrease significantly with the Christian McCaffrey trade to San Francisco.
At this stage, the division winner is likely to come from Tampa Bay, if they can turn around their current malaise, or Atlanta. Atlanta has the look and feel of a 7-10 team if all goes together nicely (and losing Cordarrelle Patterson does not fit that category), while Tampa Bay looks like a rudderless team (especially on offense) but also looks like a team that could get some players back and make a run.
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RESULTS AND STANDINGS In Week 7, our top scorer was Salvo, who came up big with a 14 point week – his week was a poolie’s dream as he scored at least two points more than anyone else, and vaulted back towards the top of the standings. Salvo is now in a tie for seventh place, with 70 points!
At the top of the overall standings remains Donna P, who stretched her lead from 2 to 4 points, as her 78 points puts her ahead of second place Darryl, who has 74 points and a two-point advantage over Adam, Fred, and Randy. As we can see, Donna is starting to pull away from the field a bit so the pressure will be on the rest of us to keep close the rest of the way.
With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ugly loss in Carolina this weekend, many questions have been raised about the now 3-4 team. Most of those questions surround 45 year-old QB Tom Brady and, while we’ll touch on that later, there are more issues at play with the Buccaneers this season that play a role in the success (or lack thereof) of the team. The good news? Even with their mediocre record, Tampa Bay still leads the NFC South – the best way to describe this division includes language that is not family friendly.
Tom Brady’s play has declined compared to last season A lot has been said about Tom Brady this season, from his leave of absence from the team due to personal matters in August, his poorer 2022 performance, and leaked details of his messy divorce (this is not a gossip column so I’ll leave that for another site). The stuff I know about, the stats, indicate that Brady has been an average QB in 2022, which of course is a far cry from 2021, when he was runner-up to MVP Aaron Rodgers (who’s having issues of his own this season).
For Brady, I compared stats from the first seven games last season to his 2022 season to this point:
Receiver Talent has dropped The number that jumps out the most, of course, are the touchdowns: nearly half of his 43 touchdowns came in the first seven games, while he would end up leading the league in yards, pass attempts, completions. This year, he’s attempted virtually the same number of passes, with the same completion percentage, but his stats are way down. Is this an indicator of reduced arm strength? It can be, but something else is at play here too:
Godwin has been hobbled by a hamstring injury for the first few weeks, while the Bucs replaced the retired Rob Gronkowski and (the might as well be retired) Antonio Brown with Russell Gage, Cade Otton, and Rachaad White. Gage is a decent slot receiver, but replacing Brown is a tall order; Otten and White are rookies with upside, but they cannot replace Rob Gronkowski (though he only played three games). The Bucs also rolled the dice on Julio Jones, who has only been able to play two games and haul in four passes. The injuries to Godwin and Jones have exposed the Bucs lack of depth at receiver this year, which contributed greatly to their ability.
Anemic run game The biggest weakness for the Bucs so far this season has been their woeful rushing attack – the Bucs have the league’s worst run game by yards per game (64.4) and yards per carry (3.0). Leonard Fournette has been their only back of note, but has struggled this year with 362 yards on 3.5 yards per carry. Rookie Rachaad White is the only other player to carry the football more than 10 times, but has struggled to post 71 yards on 26 carries. White is more advanced in the pass game at this point, but he’ll need to improve as the season progresses. If Fournette gets hurt, things could get even worse in this phase of the game.
Slow integration for Luke Goedeke In the offseason, the Bucs experienced a complete overhaul of their interior offensive line: LG Alex Cappa went to the Bengals, RG Ali Marpet made the somewhat surprising decision to retire at 28, while C Ryan Jensen suffered a significant knee injury, that he may soon return from. The Bucs acquired G Shaq Mason to replace Marpet, while Robert Hainsey has filled in admirably for Jensen. However, Goedeke, a tackle at Central Michigan, has been slow to adapt to the left guard position at the pro level. This may be alleviated by the return of Jensen, potentially in November, which could move Hainsey to left guard (though he has little experience there), or they may just live with Goedeke’s growing pains – given the window for many on this team, the expectation would be that, if Goedeke doesn’t improve by the time Jensen can return, that he will be replaced.
On the other side of the field, the Bucs defense remains one of the league’s best: they’re sixth in yards allowed per play (4.9), sixth in passing yards allowed per game (190), third in sacks (22), and eighth in pressure rate (24.7%). They are middle-of-the-road against the run, but nothing to really be concerned about. They have a balanced pass rush and two of the league’s best linebackers in Lavonte David and Devin White – if anything, the defense has been propping up the offense.
With Godwin returning to full health and Ryan Jensen possibly returning to the lineup, the Bucs are hopeful that good health and continued progression of Otton and White will help lead Tampa Bay to the playoffs in what could actually be Tom Brady’s last season. With the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers sharing the division, they may not need more than 8 wins to get the job done. The prediction here is that they’ll just be able to hold off the Falcons and, with their playoff experience, may pose a challenge for the top wild card team.
After six weeks of the NFL season, we have hit upon a trend: 4 teams with 5 or more wins (Eagles, Bills, Vikings, Giants[!]) 4 teams with 1 win (Raiders, Lions, Texans, Panthers) The rest of the 24 teams fill in the morass in between, and if your team inhabits one of these places, you’re likely to believe that a) your team could be better this season and b) there’s still hope for the playoffs. The league’s stated goal has been for parity to exist between the teams in the league, and it seems like that objective has been fulfilled this season. Nearly every team has some form of hope as we approach the midpoint of the season, though perhaps at the expense of quality. For the fans of the Packers, Broncos, or Browns – those that feel like the season is already a lost cause – those teams haven’t given you a lot of hope this year, but there is still plenty of time for a turnaround (there is also plenty of time for a complete implosion of course). Teams will start to break away from this pack (Kansas City is not a mediocre team, for example), so the next few weeks should do a lot to break up this middle ground. Or we could be here in a month still talking about the league-wide mediocrity.
APY NFL POOL RECAP This was a weekend of upsets in the NFL, from the minor variety (Atlanta is not great, but not bad either), to the “maybe we should start respecting the record” (Jets at Lambeau, Giants over the Ravens), to the shocking (Steelers over Bucs!). As a collective, we took a bath this week: the average score of the pool was 5.7 points – in 14 games, you’d expect to get 7 if you picked winners by flipping a coin – but just two poolies were able to shake off the dire results of the crowd and post downright adequate weeks: Darryl and Donna K were the only people to break double-digits this week, scoring 10 points to earn the honours as our top scorers this week! Congrats Darryl and Donna!
At the top of the standings at the 1/3 mark of the season stands Donna P, whose 67 points have her one point clear of Randy, who occupies second place by himself. In third place is the aforementioned Darryl, with 64 points. Fred is in fourth place at 63, while Adam, Marcus, and Anthony are tied for fifth place at 61.
Now that we are five weeks into the season, we have a pretty good glimpse into what to expect from each of the teams. Things never really move in a linear fashion when it comes to how teams play and player development, especially for the rookies and younger players, but we can take some educated guesses. So for this update, I’ll go over the best teams, biggest surprises and disappointments, and the bottom of the NFL barrel.
Best Teams: three teams have really established themselves as being stronger than the rest through five weeks – Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. All three of these teams have explosive offenses, and the defense for the Bills and Eagles have been dominant as well – I wouldn’t call the Chiefs defensive unit dominant, but it is solid. 1. Buffalo (4-1) Why the Bills over the undefeated Eagles? The Bills are a complete team that has dominated its opponents – even in the loss to the Dolphins, the Bills outgained their division rivals by 285 yards. The Bills have outscored their opponents 152-61, boast the best offense in terms of yards gained, and are second in yards allowed (San Francisco). They have been able to survive a number of injuries to their secondary and still have a dominant defense – their only real flaw is at RB: QB Josh Allen takes on the burden of being Buffalo’s best running back, but it could cost them in the postseason. The AFC East has been surprisingly strong, so the Bills’ schedule is by no means easy but a top seed in the AFC is definitely achievable. Interestingly, the Bills also started strong in 2021, only to have a mid-season lull. They’ll likely win the division either way, but combating complacency will be the difference between a 1-seed and a 3 or 4 seed for them. Next four games: at Kansas City (Week 6), vs Green Bay (Week 8, SNF), at NY Jets (Week 9), vs Minnesota (Week 10). 2. Philadelphia (5-0) The Eagles are the second-best team, but not far off the dominance of the Bills – Philly is second in yards gained and fourth in yards allowed. The Eagles might have the most balance in the league – a strong run game with Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts, a three-headed receiving monster in AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, a solid pass rush (free agent signing Haason Reddick has 4.5 sacks already), and a strong secondary (Darius Slay and James Bradberry in the same unit seems unfair). The Eagles had some eyes on them as a darkhorse team this season, but this start has exceeded even the loftiest of expectations. The emergence of the NFC East (well, Dallas and the Giants at least) has complicated what looked like a favourable schedule, but having all these strengths should only help them as the season progresses. Next four games: vs Dallas (Week 6, SNF), vs Pittsburgh (Week 8), at Houston (Week 9, TNF), vs Washington (Week 10, MNF) 3. Kansas City (4-1) You can’t really forget about the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes is there, though it is fair to say they’ve been overshadowed a bit by the Bills and the Eagles. I wouldn’t argue that 2022 is better than 2018 for Mahomes, but if you feel he dropped off slightly in 2021, he’s back to what we expect of him this year, which might be even more impressive given that Tyreek Hill got himself traded away to Miami in the offseason. Travis Kelce is great as always (those 4 TD receptions last night don’t hurt), and they’ve been getting solid contributions from new WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Isiah Pacheco, and Jerick McKinnon have combined to give the Chiefs a solid run game. Defensively, they’re getting contributions across the board, and CB Jaylen Watson, a 7th round pick out of Wazzu has been a pleasant surprise in the secondary across from L’Jarius Sneed. With the struggles of the rest of the division, their path to success looks a little clearer than the others, but they have a real tough test on Sunday afternoon with the Bills coming to town and then a difficult trip to somewhere near the Bay Area against the Niners. Next four games: vs Buffalo (Week 6), at San Francisco (Week 7), vs Tennessee (Week 9, SNF), vs Jacksonville (Week 10).
Biggest Surprises: the teams that have either come out of nowhere to be decent, or were expected to be OK but have roared out of the gates, or overcome significant adversity, starting with two teams that share the same stadium: 1. NY Jets (3-2) While the other teams are 4-1, did anyone really expect the Jets to be above .500 after five weeks? Yes, the Jets needed a miracle to beat the Browns, but they also fully deserved their wins in Pittsburgh and at home to Miami. If you look at the underlying statistics, you’ll see an adequate to decent team. They are 12th in yards gained and 10th in yards allowed and are improving in both categories week over week. Their high profile rookies RB Breece Hall (488 scrimmage yards), WR Garrett Wilson (23 rec, 288 yards, 2 TD), and CB Sauce Gardiner have all performed as the Jets would’ve hoped, helping to spur the team to their improved record. They have a challenging next four weeks heading into their Week 10 bye, but even if they fall off the pace a little, this team is beating their not-so-lofty expectations heading into the season. Next four games: at Green Bay (Week 6), at Denver (Week 7), vs New England (Week 8), vs Buffalo (Week 9) 2. NY Giants (4-1) The Giants 4-1 record flatters them, but I’m sure they’ll take it – their pass game and run defense are atrocious and middling respectively – but they are reaping the benefits of a healthy and rejuvenated Saquon Barkley, the direction of new head coach Brian Daboll, and some good fortune – their six recovered fumbles on defense lead the league. Their last game in London against the Packers was their most complete game against what was arguably their strongest opponent, which bears well for them as the season progresses. However, that run defense is going to get a significant test in Week 6 as the Ravens pay them a visit. On the plus side, their schedule really doesn’t get a lot tougher after that so they may see themselves in playoff contention regardless. Next four games: vs Baltimore (Week 6), at Jacksonville (Week 7), vs Seattle (Week 8), vs Houston (Week 10). 3. Philadelphia (5-0) See above for more on Philly’s season and their next games – this is a team that is 5-0 and really deserves to be there. Their schedule also puts them on a path to the 1 seed if they keep up their current play. 4. Dallas (4-1) The Cowboys probably hoped they would find themselves here, but they faced a big challenge when Dak Prescott went down with a thumb injury in the opening week loss to the Bucs. Since then, the Cowboys have won four in a row with Cooper Rush under centre, which is begging another question: is there a QB controversy in Dallas? It would be unfair to give Rush too much credit though – the Cowboys have not been effective throwing the football, but have put extra emphasis on giving the ball to Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard, which has definitely paid off. Their defense is also a strong contributor, especially the pass defense, which ranks 7th in the league. The Cowboys also rank second in sacks, led by Micah Parsons, who is tied for the league lead in sacks with 6. Whenever Dak returns, the team will still need to rely on their strong defense to win games and get them within shouting distance of the Eagles for the NFC East crown. Next four games: at Philadelphia (Week 6, SNF), vs Detroit (Week 7), vs Chicago (Week 8), at Green Bay (Week 10).
Biggest Disappointments: This is a long list and really, many teams deserve the designation, including both the Super Bowl teams, and pretty much any team that acquired a quarterback in the offseason, so keeping this list to the most undeserving teams is a challenge in itself. The Raiders are 1-4 but they lost their 4 games by combined 12 points (and six of those were in an OT loss), so they miss the cut; the Bengals and Browns are probably better than their records say they are, while the Panthers and Lions stink, but that’s not a huge surprise. The Broncos, Rams, and Colts are the biggest disappointments in the NFL this year, while the once-proud Bears and Steelers are flat out bad. Seeing the way Russell Wilson has played, you might put Denver at the top, but my list starts with the defending champions: 1. LA Rams (2-3) There are serious issues in Los Angeles right now and it mostly revolves around the vaunted offense of Sean McVay. I’m not sure how many of those issues are his fault per se, but the team is one-dimensional on offense… but it’s not even a full dimension, it’s basically just Cooper Kupp, though that may in itself be an issue. Kupp is doing great as always, ranking first in receptions (49) and second in receiving yards (527) behind only Justin Jefferson, and has five of the team’s eight offensive touchdowns. The only other player on offense to do anything of note is Tyler Higbee (33 rec, 290 yards). The run game is anemic, Stafford leads the league in times sacked (21), both of which speaks to a porous offensive line. Stafford has also been picked off 7 times (tied with Matt Ryan for league lead) – you can live with the picks when he is doing well (he led the league with 17 last season), but when he struggles, the sacks and picks become glaring, and when you factor in the preseason reports of elbow issues, that makes it look even worse. With their tough schedule, they’ll need to fix their issues against good teams, which isn’t a great sign either. Next four games: vs Carolina (Week 6), vs San Francisco (Week 8), at Tampa Bay (Week 9), vs Arizona (Week 10). 2. Pittsburgh (1-4) Following the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger, one could’ve expected a drop-off in Pittsburgh… and with the general decline of talent in the Steel City in recent years, perhaps you could’ve predicted a downturn, but this much? The injury to TJ Watt in Week 1 at Cincinnati was definitely a factor – he is a game-changer and was very disruptive in their win over the Bengals, but if you need to rely on one player, it’s tough to succeed – and the Steelers have been pitiful since that Week 1 victory. The Steelers -51 point differential is, by some margin, the worst in the league. They’re fifth works in yards and third worst in yards allowed – the Bills pasted them in Week 5, but they’ve allowed 348 or more yards in each game this year. The team can be allowed a bad season, the last time they finished under .500 was in 2003 and they drafted Big Ben in the following draft. However, this has the makings of a lost season in Pittsburgh, with only the development of Kenny Pickett being something to look forward to. Next four games: vs Tampa Bay (Week 6), at Miami (Week 7, SNF), at Philadelphia (Week 8), vs New Orleans (Week 10) 3. Denver (2-3) After years of frustration in a lack of investment in the offensive line in Seattle, Russell Wilson orchestrated a trade away from the Falcons and to the Mile High City this offseason. Once here, the Broncos new ownership handed him a 5 year, $242M contact that could pay him $54M at the age of 40 in 2029. Now, he might not see that money, but the extension came with big expectation in Denver – this was meant to vault the team into Super Bowl contention and bring them in line with their main rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs. Five weeks in and Wilson looks like all the other quarterbacks the Broncos have used since Peyton Manning retired, only really building a rapport with WR Courtland Sutton. There are some positive signs though – the defense is third in the league in yards allowed, and the Broncos have only turned the ball over six times. Their 75 points scored though is only better than the next team on this list and something that needs rectifying soon. If Wilson’s shoulder is an issue for the rest of the season, they’re in trouble… but if he can get healthy and work through his issues, this could still be a playoff team. It has looked awful so far though. Next four games: at LA Chargers (Week 6, MNF), vs NY Jets (Week 7), at Jacksonville (Week 8, London), at Tennessee (Week 10) 4. Indianapolis (2-2-1) Sure, the Colts may be at .500 right now, and yes, they beat the Chiefs, but this has been a disappointing start to the season for the Colts for two reasons that are very much connected – Matt Ryan has been a turnover machine with 11 turnovers in five weeks, and the offensive line, two years ago regarded as one of the league’s best, has fallen into disrepute in 2022, along with the Rams, the Colts line have allowed the most sacks in the league (21). The team enters into a favourable part of its schedule, with the Jags (maybe not a pushover though) and Commanders upcoming, before some more tougher matchups show up later in the season, so their opportunity to turn things around starts now – hopefully with Jonathan Taylor back in the lineup. Next four games: vs Jacksonville (Week 6), at Tennessee (Week 7), vs Washington (Week 8), at New England (Week 9) 5. Chicago (2-3) New year, new coaching staff, same issues plaguing the Chicago Bears. The Bears are dead last (by a fair margin) in passing yards, with 583 through five games – 36 more yards than Justin Jefferson has on his own. At least the rushing offense is decent, ranking fifth in the league with 787 yards on the ground. The jury is still very much out on Justin Fields, as the Bears have attempted only 88 passes so far, 35 fewer attempts than the second-last Falcons. Fields has not shown much progression as a pocket passer in his time in the league so far, with the offensive line not giving him anywhere near the time he had when dominating at Ohio State. The Bears are locked in with Fields this year, warts and all, so they’ll hope for progress as the season wears on. However, with his limitations, it may have made more sense to build the offense around his strengths – getting on the move on designed rollouts and RPOs. Next four games: vs Washington (Week 6, TNF), at New England (Week 7, MNF), at Dallas (Week 8), vs Miami (Week 9)
Worst Teams: And now we’ve reached the very bottom of the barrel in the NFL – the league’s truly bad teams. We know the Steelers will be here, along with the first team to fire their head coach, Carolina. Joining them on this list is the team led by longtime Carolina head coach Ron Rivera, the Washington Commanders. 1. Carolina (1-4) The Panthers and Steelers are neck-and-neck in this list, but the Panthers win (or lose) out on this list due to their lack of direction at all levels of the franchise. The Panthers have won 3 of their past 19 games and have seen their defense drop from the 2nd best unit in the league last season to 20th. The offense? Don’t ask. Interim HC Steve Wilks is a defensive-minded coach, but fixing the rot on offense is likely a long-term initiative. Perhaps the early draft pick in 2023 will force the Panthers into getting a blue-chip QB. Next four games: at LA Rams (Week 6), vs Tampa Bay (Week 7), at Atlanta (Week 8), at Cincinnati (Week 9) 2. Pittsburgh (1-4) See above for more. Terrible all-around start to the season for Pittsburgh. The positives: Kenny Pickett and a strong organization. They need a significant overhaul to get back into contention in future seasons. 3. Washington (1-4) Carson Wentz gets a lot of the blame for the Commanders’ woes, but it’s not all on him. He’s not completely faultless though, as his penchant for boneheaded decisions has followed him from Philly to Indy and not to the nation’s capital – his six interceptions are among the league leaders, and four of those six picks have been in the fourth quarter. On defense, the team has not been able to stop opposing offenses, and has created just one turnover in five weeks. When paired with Wentz’s turnovers, you get a struggling team. Next four games: at Chicago (Week 6, TNF), vs Green Bay (Week 7), at Indianapolis (Week 8), vs Minnesota (Week 9).
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL: WEEK 5 RESULTS AND STANDINGS After five weeks, the pool remains very tightly pack, but one person reigns over everyone: Donna P has 58 points, which is one more than Randy. Paul, Marcus, and Anthony all find themselves in a tie for third with 56 points, and Fred is just one point further back at 55.
The top scorer this week is Adam, who scored 16 points for the second week in a row (back to back shoutouts!) and now finds himself in the top 10. Adam was in 43rd place after three weeks, so it just goes to show you that your fortunes can change pretty quickly in this pool (also that it’s better to stink early than to stink late!)
