Rookie QBs: the rookie QBs had a rough week 1, going a combined 0-3.
Trevor Lawrence – the new QB of the Jacksonville Jaguars had never lost a regular season game in high school or college, but is now 0-1 as a starting QB. He had an uneven first start in Houston, going 28-for-51, 332 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs. Lawrence showed positive traits in the game, he is an accurate passer and can make quick decisions under pressure, but the pressure was a constant in this game and mistakes were made. The Jags have a thin roster and Lawrence can expect similar results from more accomplished defenses as the season wears on. Von Miller (and perhaps Bradley Chubb) awaits in Week 2.
Zach Wilson – the second overall selection from BYU had a rough first week in Carolina, going 20-37, 251 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Wilson had a really rough first half but got a little more settled in the second half. The offensive line had a horrible game in front of him, as Wilson was sacked six times.
Mac Jones – the 15th pick in the draft had a decent, if unspectacular week, going 29-39 with 281 yards, 1 TD. Jones was taking what the Dolphins defense gave him, mostly going the safe route in the short and intermediate passing game. Unlike Lawrence and Wilson, Jones has a functional offensive line in front of him, and was only sacked once.
Wilson and Jones will face off in New Jersey this coming weekend.
Trey Lance and Justin Fields were both used in subpackages in Week 1, and both players found the end zone, Lance on a five-yard TD pass to WR Trent Sherfield, and Fields on a three-yard read option keeper.

Another feature of the blog will be a deeper dive into games I’m watching over the course of the season. I was really only able to focus on the primetime games, so my takeaways are:

BUCCANEERS 31, COWBOYS 29

Dak Prescott looked really good out there and reconnected with Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Like he didn’t miss any time at all. As in 2020, Lamb is a matchup problem in the slot – he could be a #1 receiver in many offenses.

Ezekiel Elliott had a rough night (yardage), though it appeared that the Cowboys were quick to stop running the football, as they were playing catchup most of the night. Abandoning the run is not uncommon in the NFL, though it is worth monitoring what happens with Zeke, as the Cowboys defense is bad enough that they could be playing from behind for much of the season – the challenge will be how to utilize one of their best (and most expensive) players.

Cowboys defense looked poor, though not sure if that was a systemic issue or a Brady issue. Brady has made a career of carving up defenses/finding soft spots in zone coverages

Gronk appears to be fully back to his Patriots form. Gronk was not bad last season but took him a while to get his legs under him. This year, he trained all offseason and had a full training camp and it appears to be making a difference

Vita Vea was a disruptive presence in the middle of the Bucs defensive line – at least part of the reason why the Cowboys stopped running the football. When single-teamed, Vea was routinely pushing linemen into the backfield.

Buccaneers secondary looked vulnerable – an the elbow dislocation suffered by Sean Murphy-Bunting won’t help. Cowboys were targeting Jamel Dean, who is a decent CB, but overmatched against Cooper.

Greg Zeurlein had a bad three minute stretch, missed a chipshot, then a PAT, but he did come up big when called upon late.

RAMS 34, BEARS 14

Rams were in full control of this game on both sides of the ball.

Calls will go out for Justin Fields to take over as starting QB, Andy Dalton didn’t look great and is very limited in the passing game. The Rams were able to collapse coverages to cover the short and intermediate part of the field. Some issues with the Bears seem more systemic, though it is unfair to pin too much of this on the Bears offensive line. They played better than expected but the bar wasn’t high.

Fields did look very impressive in his limited snaps – looks like he’ll get some action in zone read plays – leads one to wonder if the Bears are giving him bite-sized pieces of the offense to get him acclimatized gradually. Not a bad idea, but pressure will be on if they continue to struggle – this team made the playoffs with Mitch Trubisky under centre, so expectations are up (and Nagy has to be on the hot seat).

Matthew Stafford looked good and in full command of the offense. McVay runs a variant of the West Coast offense and the personnel isn’t really built to stretch the field, but Stafford can make all the throws when needed, and did so on Sunday, with 2 50+ yard TD passes to Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson.

Darrell Henderson was the primary ball carrier and looked decent, though perhaps not a game-breaker. Sony Michel was a minimal part of the offense in Week 1.

The Rams offensive line dictated the play, and Khalil Mack was a ghost most of the game.

LB Justin Hollins had a big game for the Rams as he getting in the Bears backfield most of the night – he sacked Dalton twice and had 8 tackles in total.

Rams put Jalen Ramsey all over the secondary – even in the slot and as a sort of safety at times – to get him more involved in the run game. Ramsey seems to be more engaged when he can get physically involved

RAIDERS 33, RAVENS 27 (OT)

One of the wilder games of Week 1, the Ravens looked to be on their way to a blowout victory early – Lamar Jackson was exploiting the holes in the Raiders Cover 3 defense, Ty’Son Williams broke off a 35 yard TD run on a 4th and 1, and, on defense, the Ravens were putting the pressure on Derek Carr and forcing him to improvise.

Derek Carr has goo-goo eyes for Darren Waller – the game-changing TE was targeted 19 times by the veteran QB, 4 more targets than any other receiver in the NFL in Week 1 (Tyreek Hill had 15). Waller is a matchup problem for any team, but especially when Carr was under siege in the first half, it was very apparent that Carr was looking for him. As other receivers got more involved in the offense, the team was much more efficient.

Aside from Waller, Carr appears to have a rapport with WR Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe is a smallish slot receiver who gets by on shiftiness and positioning. WR Bryan Edwards was quiet for most of the game, but made two big catches in the Raiders final drive in regulation, then made a big time catch near the goal line on a 50-50 heave from Carr in overtime. It appeared that the Raiders were making an effort to make WR Henry Ruggs a more significant part of the offense, but he was quiet in week 1, aside from a big 37 yard reception on a 3rd and 10 in the Raiders’ 4th quarter TD drive.

When given time, Lamar Jackson was carving up the Raiders secondary in the first half. The Raiders seemed content to play soft early on and Jackson was able to find his receivers, Sammy Watkins and Marquise Brown, underneath the coverage. On his TD pass in the first half, Jackson was able to scramble to evade the pressure and find Brown at the back of the end zone on a really nice throw. The second half and OT proved more difficult as the Raiders started to mount more pressure and get to Jackson more often, forcing two fumbles. Those two fumbles were in Baltimore territory – one in the fourth and one in OT – and both led to Raiders TDs.

The Ravens had a tumultuous preseason, where three of their four running backs suffered season ending injuries (JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards tore their ACLs, while Justice Hill suffered a ruptured Achilles), leaving them to sign every available running back who was out of job. Le’Veon Bell and Davonta Freeman were both inactive but former Saints RB Latavius Murray was in the game and split reps with Ty’Son Williams. Williams had a decent game – 9 rushes for 65 yards and a TD – but was used sparingly when the game tightened in the fourth quarter and OT. In OT, Williams matadored Raiders pass rusher Carl Nassib, allowing Nassib free passage to Lamar Jackson, resulting in the strip-sack that the Raiders recovered and later converted in the game-winning TD. Murray is a much more dependable RB in pass protection and in high-pressure situations. When Bell gets to know the offense better, he may take those snaps and rushes away from Williams, though at this stage of his career, there is a question as to whether Le’Veon Bell is trading on his name. Freeman is essentially done – when not injured with the Giants last season, he was significantly less useful than Wayne Gallman.

The Raiders pass rush looked strong in the second half and OT, especially pass rusher Maxx Crosby. Crosby had two sacks and routinely got the best of RT Alejandro Villanueva.

Salvo and Gary were the top scorers this week, with 15 points apiece. Both managed to miss the big upsets, with the Ravens and Bills both heavily favoured but losing in Week 1.
Mark is in third place with 14 points, despite not having any confidence picks!

Tonight:
Dallas at Tampa Bay, 8:20 pm ET

Line: Tampa Bay -8.5

PICKS:
Matt: Tampa Bay +1 (with confidence)
Predictor: Tampa Bay +1

Preview:
As is customary, the reigning Super Bowl champions kick off the season playing on Thursday night against… Dallas? While this could’ve been Buffalo, New Orleans, or possibly even the Bears, NBC loves the NFC East (RATINGZZZZZZ) and Dallas should be a better team this year with a (presumably) healthy Dak and (possibly) a functioning defense, so it would not be fair to write them off like an FCS team being led to slaughter against a ranked Pac-12 team. That said, the talent in Tampa Bay should be far too great for Dallas and the Bucs should win this game handily.