Week 11 has no shortage of intrigue – now that we’re halfway through the season, it seems as though every game has playoff implications. The big games: Washington at Carolina: WFT HC Ron Rivera makes his return to Carolina after 8.5 years at the helm for the Panthers and he goes up against a familiar face, new/old Panthers QB Cam Newton. With Newton likely to start, it will be interesting to see what Rivera has in store for his old QB. New Orleans at Philadelphia: two flawed teams with significant playoff implications at play in this one Green Bay at Minnesota: an always hotly contested game in the NFC North – the Vikings seem to play every game tight and are coming off a big road win over the Chargers, while the Packers just shut out Seattle at Lambeau Cincinnati at Las Vegas: another game where you have two interesting but flawed teams facing off with playoff implications at stake Dallas at Kansas City: the game of the weekend – the explosive Cowboys offense going to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs, just as the Chiefs seemed to have figured things out with their own offense. Hopefully a shootout is looming Arizona at Seattle: the 3-6 Seahawks desperately need to get back on track if they have playoff aspirations. Will Kyler Murray play? Pittsburgh at LA Chargers: two teams coming off dispiriting home games will look to turn things around in the Sunday nighter.
Week 10 had a lot of drama and intrigue to it: some blowout victories, some big upsets to shake things up, a tie that felt like a loss… and also a win, and some losses that felt like something much bigger.
First, the positives – two teams answered the bell following brutal Week 9 losses: 1. Bills 45. Jets 17 After a beatdown of the Chiefs at Arrowhead, the Bills hit a trough – first a tough road loss on Monday night in Week 6 at Tennessee (a game that may impact them in other ways as the season wears on), then a bit of malaise out of the bye in a tougher than it should’ve been matchup at home to Miami, however, the wakeup call was felt in Week 9 at Jacksonville, where 10 points was enough to win but they could only manage 6. If Week 9 was the alarm, then Week 10 was the Monday morning after 3 coffees and an espresso. The Bills steamrolled the hapless Jets as Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs (8 rec, 162 yards, 1 TD) revived their partnership and the Bills defense picked off Mike White 4 times and were the beneficiaries of a Corey Davis fumble in a complete game. Buffalo even got their running game going with 139 yards and Matt Breida came out of hiding to get 2 TDs
2. Cowboys 43, Falcons 3 After winning on Sunday night with a backup QB in Minnesota, the Cowboys paid the price for their overconfidence in Week 9 when the Broncos came in and steamrolled them to a 30-0 lead before eventually succumbing by the 30-16 score. There would be no repeat in Week 10, as the Cowboys set franchise records for the most points in a quarter (29) and biggest ever halftime lead (33 points) as they destroyed the Falcons 43-3. CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott got two TDs apiece in the first half while Dan Quinn’s defense stifled his former QB, Matt Ryan, as the Falcons could manage only 213 yards of total offense in the loss – a loss so bad that Josh Rosen – on his fourth team after being taken 10th overall in the 2018 draft – subbed in for the fourth quarter.
Following a week with a number of upset victories, we were treated to another week for the dogs in Week 10, including the biggest upset which happened on Thursday night:
3. Dolphins 22, Ravens 10 Who saw this coming? Sure, maybe you could’ve foreseen the struggling Dolphins playing well and squeaking out a narrow victory, but in this game the Dolphins defense played like the one from 2020 not 2021, where a 9-3 fourth quarter game was broken open by a 49 yard scoop and score (fumble recovery for touchdown) by Dolphins corner Xavien Howard. The Ravens could not get any offense going until a late TD drive with 4:10 left that was immediately countered by a game-icing drive by Miami, including a 1 yard TD by Tua Tagovailoa, who himself had a decent game as an emergency fill-in for Jacoby Brissett, who left the game with a knee injury in the third quarter. It may be too late for the 3-7 Dolphins to salvage their season, but could be a great opportunity to cause trouble for other teams in the AFC playoff race and build some momentum into a pivotal 2022 season for the franchise.
4. WFT 29, Buccaneers 19 One would be forgiven for thinking that Tom Brady and Taylor Heinicke decided it would be fun to switch jerseys before the game started, as Brady threw two first quarter interceptions (first one qualifies as a pick in name only but the second one… oof) as the Washingtons shocked the defending champions 29-19. This victory came at a cost, as their second-year DE Chase Young went down with a torn ACL in the first half. While the Defensive Player of the Year from 2020 has struggled to match last season’s productivity, his loss will be felt in the defensive front. Washington is now 3-6 and, perhaps unlike Miami, still has a decent path to the postseason, however some other upsets have further muddied the NFC playoff race, including a division rival:
5. Eagles 30, Broncos 13 Remember the reference to the Broncos-Cowboys game above? Where Denver annihilated an overconfident Cowboys team on the road? Well, it looks like the effects of that game were felt in Denver as well, this time the Eagles beating up on an overconfidence Broncos team in a 30-13 victory in the Mile High City. As with the Dolphins win, the Eagles benefited from a fumble recovery for a touchdown, as their corner Darius Slay picked up a Melvin Gordon fumble and took it back the other way for 82 yards and the score. With the Broncos down 20-13 at this point and in the red zone, the fumble recovery TD completely changed the prospects for both teams, not just for this one game, but possibly for the season as a whole. The Eagles have now won two of three (both wins somewhat convincingly) and the schedule, while laden with divisional opponents, does open up a bit – the 4-5 Eagles are just a 1/2 game out of the final wild card and get a battered Saints team at home, then they have five games against the Giants (2x), WFT (2x), and the Jets before the season finale against the Cowboys. On the other hand, the Broncos fall to 5-5 and, while they are only a 1/2 game out themselves, are a bad game away from watching the season slide through their fingers. Their schedule is also heavy in the division but, unlike in the NFC East, there is little respite in the AFC West, as they still have the Chiefs and Chargers twice each and the Raiders once before the season ends.
6. Panthers 34, Cardinals 10 Kyler Murray missed this game, so should it be considered an upset? Maybe not, but the Cardinals were still favoured by a touchdown before this game kicked off, so it counts. The Panthers defense absolutely dominated the undermanned Cardinals, forcing two Colt McCoy turnovers before he was benched and holding the Cards to 169 total yards in this shellacking. However, most of the focus will be of the triumphant return of Cam Newton to the Queen City (not to be confused with the other Queen City, Cincinnati). Newton did not start and only took a few snaps under centre, but his first two snaps resulted in touchdowns, a two-yard designed run and a two-yard pass to WR Robby Anderson. It looks like Newton will be ramped up to start the Week 11 game and, while one would suggest that Week 11 playbook may be somewhat limited, the prospects for the Panthers this season have improved immediately. The 5-5 Panthers now hold the last playoff spot in the NFC and that defense is good enough to cover flaws in the offense to an extent (not a Sam Darnold extent but something better than that, which the Panthers have now). Fortunately for the Cardinals, Kyler Murray’s injury does not appear significant and he should be fine for the stretch run – he may miss this weekend’s game in Seattle though.
7. 49ers 31, Rams 10 Not to be outdone, the San Francisco 49ers played a complete game against the Rams, picking off Matthew Stafford twice (second game in a row for him), including a Jimmie Ward pick six (also second week in a row for Stafford), and the Niners offense played a methodical run-heavy game relying on Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle to punish the Rams defense. The Niners held the ball for nearly 40 minutes as their ball-control strategy paid dividends, not allowing the Rams to get comfortable on offense. The Rams were without Robert Woods, who tore his ACL in practice and were with new signing Odell Beckham Jr on a very limited basis as he gets acclimatized with the Rams offense which is likely a bit more complex than the run-heavy Browns offense he just left. The 7-3 Rams have hit a speed wobble after their 7-1 start – not insurmountable by any means, but they do need adjusting. Add to that bringing in Von Miller and OBJ has further increased the expectations of this team though both will need time to integrate. On the Niners side, they are now 4-5 with the Jaguars up next, which shows how quickly fortunes can change in the NFC. Either way, with George Kittle back, some of the defensive pressure needs to be taken away from Deebo Samuel, who may only face double teams now. If this team can stay healthy (*chortle*) they are a tough out the rest of the way and would be foolish to count out.
And while there were many upsets, the most surprising one on paper might not have been a loss at all:
8. Lions 16, Steelers 16 This game could’ve been dubbed with this and it would’ve fit in perfectly. While that might not be completely fair to the Lions, who did not throw an interceptions, commit a fumble, nor get sacked all game, it would apply to their kicker Ryan Santoso, who missed a PAT and a 48-yard field goal attempt in overtime that fell woefully short. It definitely applies to the 5-3-1 Steelers, who were without Ben Roethlisberger, who was forced out with a positive COVID test on Saturday night. Without him, the Steelers turned the ball over three times, including a Pat Freiermuth fumble inside the Lions 40 with 8 seconds left to secure the tie. The tie ensures that the Lions will not be the NFL’s first 17 loss team but for the Steelers, this is a missed opportunity to gain ground on the Ravens as well as some space in the wild card race. There was a significant scare early, as TJ Watt had to leave the game with knee and hip injuries (though it appears he avoided a significant injury). This game leads into a monstrous end of season schedule, where the 4-5 Vikings are the only sub-.500 team left for them to face in their final eight matchups.
And last but not least, an ugly loss at Foxborough will require some soul searching:
9. Patriots 45, Browns 7 The Browns jumped out to a 7-0 early but the Patriots bowled over the Browns for the rest of the game, getting 3 TDs from Mac Jones, 2 from Rhamondre Stevenson, who ran for 100 yards in the absence of Damien Harris (and uh oh to his job security), and even one from Brian Hoyer in this beatdown. The 6-4 Patriots have now won 4 in a row and, where have we heard this before about a struggling Patriots team putting it together before the stretch run. With so many new pieces and a rookie QB, it looks like the Patriots took their lumps early but look like world-beaters – the Pats have outscored teams 150-33 during this winning streak and have a Thursday night date with the Falcons on tap. Two games loom in December with the Bills that will decide the AFC East (who would’ve thought that a month ago?) But more importantly, this loss was a tough one for the Browns to swallow – even though they were missing all but one of their running backs, the passing game was the big culprit. Baker Mayfield went down with a knee injury in the third quarter, but put up a dismal 11-21, 73 yard, 1 TD, 1 INT line before the injury and the Pats were already up big. There are questions that need to be answered about Mayfield, whose rookie contract is up at the end of next season, but rumours have swirled about the status of further extension talks. Is he worth $30-40 million per season? In this game though, it wasn’t just him – the defense looked like it quit as the Patriots ran all over them to the tune of 452 total yards. Even at 5-5 and just a half game back of the Bengals, the conference is too strong to allow them to limp into a playoff spot – they’ll need to fix their issues immediately.
POOL UPDATE When there are a lot of upsets in the NFL, the pool feels it as well – the pool saw the lowest average score (5.8 per player) and only two people scored in double figures this week: Our top scorer this week was Jay, who put up 11 points. After losing a confidence pick on the Thursday nighter, Jay was able to avoid the other traps and scored 12 points on Sunday. His big week moved him from towards the bottom of the pack to towards the middle.
The top of the pool suffered just like the rest of us, but after an 11 point week, Salvo was able to put together 8 points this week and now finds himself in a tie for first with Jerome, as both have 121 total points. Sam finds herself alone in third place just one point off the pace. Will is in fourth place with 119 points Alessandro and Paul are each tied for fifth, with 118 points apiece.
And now the part you’ve all been waiting for – Part III, the outer reaches of the power rankings where I either: a) mercilessly bash a team or b) be overly patronizing I’m not sure which one is worse, but it’s probably b). If you have expectations of someone and they don’t meet them, you are disappointed. If you don’t have any expectations, then any success is celebrated, no matter how mundane.
NFL FOURTH TIER: MEDIOCRE NFC TEAMS The NFC East and North divisions are well represented in this section – the one where teams are struggling and likely have little to no shot at the postseason, given how good the NFC frontrunners are, but will celebrate a 9-8 season like it’s time to raise another banner.
Any excuse at all
20. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-5) 2nd place, NFC North, 3.5 games behind Green Bay Week 4 Ranking: 19 Strength of Schedule: .544 (7th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-5 Best win: Week 3 vs Seahawks, 30-17 Worst loss: Week 4 vs Cleveland, 14-7 Next four games: at LA Chargers (5-3), vs Green Bay (7-2), at San Francisco (3-5), at Detroit (0-8) The Vikings have played in one game decided by more than seven points, and three decided by more than four. Every game is close, but there’s something that prevents them from pulling out the victory. Against the Ravens, they had a 14 point lead in the third quarter but lost. Against the Browns, they marched down the field for a touchdown on their first possession and then got NOTHING else. Against the now 8-1 Cardinals, they needed a 37 yard field goal to win. Even still, this team has the traits of a good team. The offense is in the top 10 in the league in yards, the defense isn’t very good, but it has a good pass rush and generates more than double the turnovers that the offense does (11:5). But all in all, this is an average team, with average stats, and while it has a few star players, there isn’t much to get excited about in Minnesota. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Run game, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, pass rushers – Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen, second-fewest turnovers WHAT NOT TO LIKE: run defense, inconsistent offense
21. ATLANTA FALCONS (4-4) 3rd place, NFC South, 2 games behind Tampa Bay Week 4 Ranking: 27 Strength of Schedule: .397 (31st) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-1 Best win: Week 9 at Saints, 27-25 Worst loss: Week 1 vs Eagles, 32-6 Next four games: at Dallas (6-2), vs New England (5-4) TNF, at Jacksonville (2-6), vs Tampa Bay (6-2) After surrendering 80 points in their first two games, and starting the season 1-3, the Atlanta Falcons were written off in many areas (including this one), the Falcons have turned their season around. Sure, they beat the Jets and Dolphins (and Giants) to get to the last wild card spot after nine weeks, but wins are wins and you stack them however you can get them. That said, a team with the 17th-best defense and 20th-best offense against the second-worst opposing schedule does not scream “PLAYOFFS”. However, in recent weeks, the Falcons and offensive-minded HC Arthur Smith seem to have found a formula that works for them. With WR Calvin Ridley taking time to deal with his wellbeing, TE Kyle Pitts is being used largely as a wide receiver (a la Jimmy Graham) and RB Cordarelle Patterson has been splitting snaps at WR and RB. With their revamped offense, the Falcons have gone from stagnant to… well, good enough to keep stacking wins. As the schedule intensifies in the second half, will they have enough to keep their current position? WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Rookie TE Kyle Pitts and WR/RB Cordarelle Patterson: matchup problems WHAT NOT TO LIKE: WR depth, non-existent pass rush, run game
22. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (3-5) 4th place, NFC West, 4.5 games behind Arizona Week 4 Ranking: 12 Strength of Schedule: .514 (13th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-3 Best win: Week 8 at Bears, 33-22 Worst loss: Week 9 vs Cardinals, 31-17 Next four games: vs LA Rams (7-2) MNF, at Jacksonville (2-6), vs Minnesota (3-5), at Seattle (3-5) SNF Every year in San Francisco, it’s the same old story. Injuries. Every year multiple impact players get hurt. Also every year, the Niners go through about 30 running backs. On both fronts, this is true this year. Raheem Mostert, the starting RB goes down with an injury in the first quarter of the season. In Week 4, star TE George Kittle and QB Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt too (also recurring themes). After Mostert got hurt, he was replaced by rookie RB Elijah Mitchell, a find in the sixth round in the 2021 draft. Of course, he also got hurt in Week 2 and had to miss two games. I could go on. Long story short, the Kittle injury hurt as WR Deebo Samuel was left to handle the pass catching duties more or less by himself and while he has the second-most yards of any receiver (49 rec, 882 yards), there has been little help. The biggest issue so far this season has been turnovers. They don’t manufacture enough (5, tied for last with Jacksonville) and create too many (14, including 8 fumbles, third-most). At 3-5, the Niners still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs (as does every NFC team outside the Motor City) but they need some good health and good luck to get there. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Deebo Samuel, interoperable run game, Nick Bosa WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Injuries, turnover margin
23. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-6) 2nd place, NFC East, 3.5 games behind Dallas Week 4 Ranking: 26 Strength of Schedule: .514 (14th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-5 Best win: Week 1 at Falcons, 32-6 Worst loss: Week 3 at Cowboys, 41-21 Next four games: at Denver (5-4), vs New Orleans (5-3), at NY Giants (3-6), at NY Jets (2-6) When the Philadelphia Eagles are at their best, they are a team that runs the football. Miles Sanders is an underrated running back with big play capabilities. Their QB Jalen Hurts, is a good runner who has accuracy issues and is best suited when tasked with short and intermediate throws. Devonta Smith has been great in his rookie season (38 rec, 537 yards) and Dallas Goedert is a good TE (27 rec, 401 yards), but at times, the Eagles get away from what should be their philosophy (like the Week 3 game against Dallas where a healthy Sanders ran the ball exactly twice). With the hard part of their schedule behind them, we’ll see if the Eagles stick to what makes them good or try to force the issue in the air. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: run game, offensive line, DT Javon Hargrave returning to form, Devonta Smith, Jalen Hurts on the move, deceptively good run D WHAT NOT TO LIKE: refusal at times to run the football, Jalen Hurts throwing, deceptively poor pass D
24. CHICAGO BEARS (3-6) 3rd place, NFC North, 4 games behind Green Bay Week 4 Ranking: 24 Strength of Schedule: .566 (3rd) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 2-5 Best win: Week 5 at Raiders, 20-9 Worst loss: Week 7 at Buccaneers, 38-3 Next four games: BYE, vs Baltimore (6-2), at Detroit (0-8) Thanksgiving, vs Arizona (8-1) If you want to know the difference between the AFC and the NFC this year, this is what to know: the Chicago Bears, the 3-6 Chicago Bears with by far the league’s worst passing attack – their 144 YPG average is 50 YPG worse than the second-worst – is in the periphery of the NFC playoff hunt. The Bears have faced the third-toughest schedule and while they still have tough games to go (Baltimore, Arizona, and Green Bay at Lambeau loom), there is a path to nine wins if Justin Fields can turn things around. Not sure it happens this year though – Fields has plenty of arm talent but much too inconsistent and the offensive line is porous at best (Fields has been sacked 29 times) – however, given the right investment, there’s enough glimpses to see what made him a special QB at Ohio State. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: defense, run game WHAT NOT TO LIKE: offensive line, not maximizing Justin Fields abilities
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25. CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-5) 4th place, NFC South, 2.5 games behind Tampa Bay Week 4 ranking: 14 Strength of Schedule: .421 (30th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-2 Best win: Week 2 vs Saints, 26-7 Worst loss: Week 7 at Giants, 25-3 Next four games: at Arizona (8-1), vs Washington (2-6), at Miami (2-7), BYE So just as I’m about to do a eulogy on the Panthers since Sam Darnold is out and, even when he was in they were in trouble, but the Panthers have just signed free agent QB Cam Newton for the rest of the season. The veteran comes back to help salvage a season for a team that has some decent pieces in place. Yes, the schedule has been soft for Carolina in the first half of the season, but they are the second-best defensive unit in the league (293 YPG) and second-best against the pass (181 YPG). Their passing offense may not be helped a ton by Newton, but with their former All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey just back into the lineup and Cam set to be back under centre by Week 11 or 12, the Panthers will hope to have their dynamic run game back to give them a push. Despite their recent struggles, they’re only a 1/2 game out of that last playoff spot. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: tough defense, turnovers, star WR DJ Moore (despite QB trouble), CMC is back, Haason Reddick and Brian Burns off the edge, Shaq Thompson carrying on the MLB tradition in Carolina WHAT NOT TO LIKE: poor passing offense (aside from DJ Moore), run game without CMC
26. NEW YORK GIANTS (3-6) 3rd place, NFC East, 3.5 games behind Dallas Week 4 Ranking: 28 Strength of Schedule: .566 (2nd) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 2-4 Best win: Week 7 vs Panthers, 25-3 Worst loss: Week 2 at WFT, 30-29 Next four games: BYE, at Tampa Bay (7-2) MNF, vs Philadelphia (3-6), at Miami (2-7) Going into their Week 10 bye, the New York Giants are looking a lot better – they crushed the Panthers, played tough against the Chiefs in Kansas City, and pulled off a nice home win over the Raiders. Interestingly, the team has played better without their star RB Saquon Barkley. However, the big improvement of the team has nothing to do with Saquon – their defense has stepped up. They’re getting better play from the secondary – CB James Bradberry has played a lot better in recent weeks and S Xavier McKinney has been good all season – and from their star DE Leonard Williams. Going to Tampa will be a tough test in Week 11 but games against the Eagles and Dolphins will help determine whether the Giants are capable of a late-season push. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: turnover margin, Leonard Williams, Xavier McKinney WHAT NOT TO LIKE: run defense, run offense, injuries to skill position players, Daniel Jones inconsistency
27. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (2-6) 4th place, NFC East, 4 games behind Dallas Week 4 Ranking: 21 Strength of Schedule: .574 (1st) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-6 Best win: Week 4 at Falcons, 34-30 Worst loss: Wee 3 at Buffalo, 43-21 Next four games: vs Tampa Bay (7-2), at Carolina (4-5), vs Seattle (3-5) MNF, at Oakland (5-3) The 2020 season had a lot of great stories for the Washington Football Team – HC Ron Rivera was diagnosed with cancer, for which he underwent treatments during the season (and did not miss a game), then announced his cancer was in remission by late October. On the field, Alex Smith came back from that gruesome leg injury that almost ended his life. Washington took inspiration from those stories, some exceptional play from the defensive front (including DROY Chase Young), and a soft schedule, and one of the softest divisions in NFL history, as WFT went from a 2-7 start to a late season run that catapulted them into the playoffs at 7-9. This season? The schedule is a LOT tougher (the toughest in the NFL through nine weeks), the defense has struggled (the worst defense against the pass), and a Week 1 hip injury to starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick have conspired to put the Washingtons down to a 2-6 start. While this first half is a lot like last year’s first half, it will be tough for them to rebound. Also, as Dallas is already at 6-2, just going 8-9 or 7-10 won’t be enough for them to win the division. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: run game, run defense, Terry McLaurin (one of the most underrated WR in the league), Antonio Gibson, DT Jonathan Allen – internal disruptor WHAT NOT TO LIKE: awful pass defense, turnover margin, where is Chase Young?
NFL FIFTH TIER: BAD AFC TEAMS (and DETROIT) Congrats on making it to the end of the list. And your prize, to see who the worst five teams in the league are. Although, I think there’s little mystery to who will be on this list, and to who will be number 32. Before this season started, it was safe to say that we would see four of the five teams we’ll see here. The fifth one, Miami, is a surprise. The Dolphins were a tiebreaker away from making the playoffs last season and are now a half season away from gifting the Eagles a top five pick (and perhaps better) for the right not draft WR Jaylen Waddle in the 2021 NFL Draft (and not Penei Sewell… or Rashawn Slater, who they could’ve taken at 12).
28. NEW YORK JETS (2-6) 3rd place, AFC East, 3 games behind Buffalo Week 4 Ranking: 29 Strength of Schedule: .549 (6th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 2-3 Best win: Week 4 vs Titans, 27-24 Worst loss: Week 7 at Patriots, 54-13 Next four games: vs Buffalo (5-3), vs Miami (2-7), at Houston (1-8), vs Philadelphia (3-6) The Jets have allowed over 31 points per game and score 18, they’re last in total yards allowed per game (408) and they’re one of the worst teams in the league in running the football… so how did they beat the Ravens and Bengals? In the Bengals game, backup QB Mike White went in and threw for 405 yards in his first career start, and rookie RB Michael Carter had 170 total yards and CJ Mosley contributed with 10 tackles. It’s far too early to give up on Zach Wilson, but the offense has opened up, especially in the passing game, since Mike White (and subsequently Josh Johnson) took the helm. The next few weeks (outside of this weekend with an angry Bills team) seem to open up nicely for the Jets to show some improvement. And when Zach Wilson comes back, we’ll see if they stick with White or go back to the rookie. The Jets have more to gain with Wilson getting his reps and, to be fair to him, the jump from the BYU schedule in 2020 (didn’t play any Power 5 teams) to the NFL is a significant jump. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: defensive line (Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers, Foley Fatukasi) WHAT NOT TO LIKE: both parts of the defense, especially pass defense, lack of experience/talent at CB, run offense
29. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-6) 3rd place, AFC South, 4.5 games behind Tennessee Week 4 Ranking: 31 Strength of Schedule: .514 (15th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-2 Best win: Week 9 vs Bills, 9-6 Worst loss: Week 1 at Texans, 37-21 Next four games: at Indianapolis (4-5), vs San Francisco (3-5), vs Atlanta (4-4), at LA Rams (7-2) The first half of the first season of the Urban Meyer has been, put simply, a disaster. We knew this would be a rebuilding year for the Jaguars, but his off-the-field scandal along with his less-than-definitive response to rumours of him taking the USC job have not helped matters. QB Trevor Lawrence has struggled this year, despite a good run game and a half-decent offensive line (the interior more than the tackles). While the pass defense has been poor (second-worst YPA, 7.5), the run defense is actually fourth-best in the league in yards per carry (3.8). This team has some tools to be a tough team (if not very good) as long as they get more consistency from their rookie QB. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: run game/James Robinson, run defense, defensive line, interior offensive line, the “other” Josh Allen, PR/KR Jamal Agnew WHAT NOT TO LIKE: pass defense, turnovers, pass rush
30. MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-7) 4th place, AFC East, 3.5 games behind Buffalo Week 4 Ranking: 25 Strength of Schedule: .493 (22nd) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-5 Best win: Week 1 at Patriots, 17-16 Worst loss: Week 6 vs Jaguars 23-20 (London) Next four games: vs Baltimore (6-2) TNF, at NY Jets (2-6), vs Carolina (4-5), vs NY Giants (3-6) Nothing has gone right this season for a Dolphins team that is losing due to two factors: not addressing its glaring needs in the offseason, and the significant decline in its star corners, especially Xavien Howard. The Dolphins were a team thin on playmakers, offensive line, and at linebacker. The only real moves they made to repair any of those was to trade two firsts and a fourth to move up 6 places to get WR Jaylen Waddle in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, and take T Liam Eichenberg in the second round. Waddle has been good (56 rec, 495 yds, 3 TD) though limited by the offense, while Eichenberg has struggled (though the rest of the line is no better). This also doesn’t address the continued struggles of Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has struggled when in the lineup so far this season and while a lot of his struggles can be blamed on a poor offensive line and the constant Deshaun Watson rumours swirling around the team, his production has been lacking. He doesn’t seem to be the same player he was at Alabama and the hip injury he suffered there is likely a key contributor. All those factors have resulted in a Miami team that looks awful on the field and on the stat sheet, ranking third last in total yards per game on offense (297) and third last in YPG on defense (392). If looking for positives, there are a few: DT Christian Wilkins and DE Emmanuel Ogbah are having strong seasons in the Dolphins defensive front, while TE Mike Gesicki and Waddle are a promising 1-2 combo at the receiver positions. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Defensive front, Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle as slot receiver, run defense is league average (I’m trying!) WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Offense, pass defense, pass rush aside from Ogbah * – ignore the Thursday night game. They basically did everything opposite to what they did the first nine weeks of the season. About time!
31. HOUSTON TEXANS (1-8) 4th place, AFC South, 6 games behind Tennessee Week 4 Ranking: 32 Strength of Schedule: .532 (11th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-5 Best win: Week 1 vs Jaguars, 37-21 Worst loss: Week 4 at Bills, 40-0 Next four games: BYE, at Tennessee (7-2), vs NY Jets (2-6), vs Indianapolis (4-5) The Houston Texans are bearing the bitter fruit they’ve been planting over the past few years. Terrible trade decisions by former HC/GM Bill O’Brien have left a barren team with very little today and very little to look forward to in the immediate future. This team is in the bottom five of nearly every statistical category, including last in offense (280 YPG), last in rushing (75 YPG), third-last in passing (205 YPG is better than New Orleans and Chicago), second-last in run defense (137 YPG), and fifth-last in total yards allowed (386 YPG). They’re two full PPG worse than second-last (14.2 vs Jacksonville’s 16.5), and third-last in points allowed per game (28.7 is better than the Lions and Jets). This is all without even touching on the debacle that is Deshaun Watson. The Texans had to fill gaps with jettisoned veterans and young players in way over their heads. On the plus side, the WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Brandin Cooks, Jonathan Greenard, getting turnovers WHAT NOT TO LIKE: offense and defense, giving up turnovers
32. DETROIT LIONS (0-8) 4th place, NFC North, 6.5 games behind Green Bay Week 4 Ranking: 30 Strength of Schedule: .536 (10th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-4 Best win: Errrr…. Worst loss: Week 9 vs Eagles, 44-6 Next four games: at Pittsburgh (5-3), at Cleveland (5-4), vs Chicago (3-6) Thanksgiving, vs Minnesota (3-5) As bad as the Lions have been, you could at least say they competed… until last week’s decimation by the Eagles. In his opening press conference, HC Dan Campbell said infamously stated this team would be tough and it appears to be the case… the only problem is that this team is not very talented with a few exceptions, notably TE TJ Hockenson, C Frank Ragnow, and rookie LT Penei Sewell. The Lions are in the bottom three in average yards per pla y on offense (5.0 YPP) and defense (6.25). Naturally, not a recipe for success. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Team effort against good teams (Ravens and Rams games), TJ Hockenson, D’Andre Swift as pass-catcher, offensive line (at least the left side – Sewell, Jackson, Ragnow/Brown) WHAT NOT TO LIKE: pass defense, pass rush, offensive efficiency
In a game that looked a lot better on paper at the start of the season, the 6-2 Ravens travel to Miami to take on the 2-7 Dolphins. The Dolphins are not terrible against the run (111 yards per game is right at league average) so maybe it’ll be competitive…?
A continuation of the APY NFL Power Rankings: this week we go over the second and third tiers: the Middle Class tier, and the “how should I know?” tier featuring the Seahawks and the Broncos. The Seahawks due to them being a completely different team with the returning Russell Wilson, the Broncos because this team can beat anyone or lose to anyone in any given week.
NFL SECOND TIER: THE MIDDLE CLASS Following some distance behind the top eight teams in the league follows a peloton of nearly 20 teams from New England to WFT. This group represents the bulky middle of the NFL – teams that range from good (but not THAT good) to bad (but not THAT bad). To break up the middle a little bit, the list has been split between the middle class of the AFC (which mostly fall in the good but not great bucket) and another bucket that contains most of the NFC teams (which are generally really good but fall short of being moribund). Today, we’ll the better (AFC) half of the list, starting with a team that might come as a surprise:
9. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-4) 2nd place, AFC East, 1/2 game behind Buffalo Week 4 Ranking: 23 Strength of Schedule: .440 (28th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 1-3 Best win: Week 8 at Chargers, 27-24 Worst loss: Week 1 vs Dolphins, 17-16 Next four weeks: vs Cleveland (5-4), at Atlanta (4-4) TNF, vs Tennessee (7-2), at Buffalo (5-3) MNF For the first six games of the season, the Patriots looked stuck in neutral. Against the bad teams, they’d struggle to perform (lost to Miami Week 1, then narrowly beat Houston in Week 5). Against the good teams, they’d be up for the challenge but narrowly lose (lost the Brady comeback game in Week 4 and in OT to Dallas in Week 6). However, was there any doubt that a Bill Belichick-coached team would turn the corner? I suppose yes, given last year was mediocre all the way through, but this year’s version had the patented Patriots October turnaround. A romp against the Jets, then two road wins against the Chargers and Panthers have put New England back in the division race and back to the national consciousness. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Defense, interceptions WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Running game, fumbles
10. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-3) 1st place, AFC West, with tiebreaker over Las Vegas Week 4 Ranking: 7 Strength of Schedule: .544 (8th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 3-3 Best win: Week 3 at Chiefs, 30-24 Worst loss: Week 7 at Ravens, 34-6 Next four weeks: vs Minnesota (3-5), vs Pittsburgh (5-3), at Denver (5-4), at Cincinnati (5-4) Much like last season, the Los Angeles Chargers find themselves in a lot of tight games against good competition. This season, however, the Chargers are getting their fair share of close wins, including this past weekend against Philadelphia. The return of Derwin James to the Chargers secondary has made a big difference on defense while Justin Herbert continues to mature into one of the more talented quarterbacks in the league. However, with this schedule, what is in store for the Chargers in the second half? WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Passing offense, secondary WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Run defense, run offense, pass rush, schedule
11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (5-4) T-3rd place, AFC West, 1/2 game behind LA Chargers Week 4 Ranking: 8 Strength of Schedule: .558 (4th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 2-4 Best win: Week 1 vs Cleveland, 33-29 Worst loss: Week 7 at Titans, 27-3 Next four weeks: at Las Vegas (5-3) SNF, vs Dallas (6-2), BYE, vs Denver (5-4) Something is not quite right with the Kansas City Chiefs. Sure, they’ve faced the league’s fourth-hardest schedule and they still, statistically speaking, have one of the more potent passing offenses, but that said, they’ve struggled in recent weeks to put points on the board and, until very recently, have struggled to stop offenses from scoring on them. Is this a Super Bowl hangover for Patrick Mahomes and team? Is it a prolonged slump that will resolve itself? Only time will tell, but one thing is for certain, the tough schedule is not going away, and teams are eager to prove themselves against the KC offense, so there will be no easy games from here on out. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Super Bowl pedigree WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Turnovers, defense, schedule
12. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-3) 2nd place, AFC North, 1 game behind Baltimore Week 4 Ranking: 22 Strength of Schedule: .551 (5th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 3-3 Best win: Week 1 at Bills, 23-16 Worst loss: Week 3 vs Bengals 24-10 Next four weeks: vs Detroit (0-8), at LA Chargers (5-3) SNF, at Cincinnati (5-4), vs Baltimore (6-2) After starting the season 1-3, including losing the first two games at home, the Steelers started hearing the murmurs – that the team was done, that Mike Tomlin’s incredible streak of 14 seasons at or above .500 was done, that Tomlin was headed to USC, that Ben Roethlisberger was well past his prime, and that the offensive line can’t get it done. Since then, the Steelers have won four in a row and have done so by playing Steelers football – tough, hard-nosed football – relying heavily on its star-studded defense to win games, while the offense has done just enough (and I mean *just*) to not lose for them. In the incredibly competitive AFC, this may not be enough to make the playoffs but Pittsburgh will never be an easy win for any team. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Good, young building blocks on offense and defense, TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Lack of depth, Big Ben in significant decline, offensive line
13. CLEVELAND BROWNS (5-4) 3rd place, AFC North, 1.5 games behind Baltimore Week 4 Ranking: 9 Strength of Schedule: .513 (16th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 1-4 Best win: Week 9 at Bengals, 41-16 Worst loss: Week 6 vs Cardinals, 37-14 Next four weeks: at New England (5-4), vs Detroit (0-8), at Baltimore (6-2) SNF, BYE The AFC North has long been a division that’s predicated on playing hard-nosed football. Run the ball, defend the run, play physical on both sides of the ball. No team is better suited for cold, winter football like the Cleveland Browns. Their offensive line is one of the league’s best (though will be hurt by the loss of RT Jack Conklin), their team is the third best at stopping the run (84.8 rush YPG allowed, and 3.5 YPC), and they are committed to running the football, even when Nick Chubb (third in the NFL with 721 rushing yards, despite missing two weeks already) and Kareem Hunt are out of the lineup (as they will be in Week 10). Oh, and they have Myles Garrett terrorizing quarterbacks, the star pass rusher already has 12 sacks on the season, leading the league. The big question for Cleveland in their aspirations of postseason success lies with the arm of Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is dealing with a torn labrum (and potential broken shoulder) in his non-throwing shoulder and has not looked himself all season. Now that Odell Beckham Jr has been granted his release, will this potentially help Mayfield remove a distraction and play more freely? Even with all the Browns positives, they’ll need that if they want to go deep into the playoffs. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Run defense, outstanding pass rush, offensive line, run game, Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Inconsistent passing, lack of turnovers
14. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-3) 2nd place, NFC South, 1 game behind Tampa Bay Week 4 Ranking: 16 Strength of Schedule: .500 (18th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 3-0 Best win: Week 1 vs Green Bay, 38-3 (in Jacksonville) Worst loss: Week 4 vs NY Giants, 27-21 Next four weeks: at Tennessee (7-2), at Philadelphia (3-6), vs Buffalo (5-3) TNF, vs Dallas (7-2) TNF The Saints have the most extreme season, perhaps of any NFL team. They have a massive upset win over the Green Bay Packers when they were displaced from their home due to Hurricane Irma, which they promptly followed up with an awful game against the Carolina Panthers. Then in Week 8, they score another big win over the defending champions. The following week? They lose at home to the Falcons. The Saints will be put to the test now that QB Jameis Winston is out for the rest of the season after tearing his ACL in an awkward tackle by Bucs LB (and close friend) Devin White. That same week, it was announced that WR Michael Thomas suffered a setback and will not play this season for the Saints. These losses will test the Saints, though if this season has been any indication, they’ll be fine until things get too comfortable. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Elite run defense, protects football, interceptions WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Pass rush, pass defense, anemic offense
15. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (5-3) 2nd place, AFC West, LA Chargers hold the tiebreaker over Las Vegas Week 4 Ranking: 15 Strength of Schedule: .464 (26th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 3-1 Best win: Week 1 vs Ravens, 33-27 (OT) Worst loss: Week 5 vs Bears, 20-9 Next four weeks: vs Kansas City (5-4) SNF, vs Cincinnati (5-4), at Dallas (6-2) Thanksgiving Day, vs Washington (2-6) Off the field, this season has been one of constant turmoil for the Raiders. First, the scandal surrounding emails made by former HC Jon Gruden which were uncovered during the NFL investigation of the Washington Football Team. Then, prior to Week 9, WR Henry Ruggs crashed his car while travelling at excessive speeds while under the influence and killed the passenger in the other car. While it would be understandable for these incidents to weigh heavily on the players, the Raiders have been able to play well in spite of the off-the-field issues. QB Derek Carr is having his finest season as a passer, ranking third in the league in passing yards (2,565), despite already having the bye. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Balanced passing attack, pass rush duo Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue, pass defense, safety play WHAT NOT TO LIKE: run game, offensive line, run defense
16. CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-4) 4th place, AFC North, 1.5 games behind Baltimore Week 4 Ranking: 17 Strength of Schedule: .440 (t-28th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 2-2 Best win: Week 7 at Ravens, 41-17 Worst loss: Week 8 at Jets, 34-31 Next four weeks: BYE, at Las Vegas (5-3), vs Pittsburgh (5-3), vs LA Chargers (5-3) In the preseason, Ja’Marr Chase was having trouble with drops, but also trouble with the football media, which started to doubt his ability to transition to the NFL. Chase himself, however, was undeterred, and with good reason. With nine games in the books, Chase is on pace to break the records for more prolific rookie season in NFL history, surpassing his former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson, Chase is third in the NFL in receiving yards (835) and tied for fourth in touchdowns (7), and third in yards per reception (19.0). While the Bengals could’ve gone with Penei Sewell to address their apparent need in the offensive line, they went the free agent route instead and signed T Riley Reiff from Minnesota. That move has helped bolster the offensive line – though pressure still gets to Burrow far too often (25 sacks in 9 games), it’s at least somewhat better than it has been previously. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Explosive offense, run defense, Ja’Marr Chase historic rookie season WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Pass defense, interceptions
17. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-5) 2nd place, AFC South, 3 games behind Tennessee Week 4 Ranking: 20 Strength of Schedule: .494 (t-19th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 0-4 Best win: Week 7 at Niners, 30-18 Worst loss: Week 1 vs Seahawks 28-16 Next four weeks: vs Jacksonville (2-6), at Buffalo (5-3), vs Tampa Bay (6-2), at Houston (1-8) If there is just one thing to like about this team, it’s that the Indianapolis Colts are predictable. They’ll beat the teams they’re better than and lose to those they’re not at the level of – the exact opposite of the New Orleans Saints in that respect. In light of this though, there is this feeling that the Colts are not the sum of their parts, They have one of the best running backs in football in Jonathan Taylor, and he can be used in both the run and pass games. Darius Leonard is a linebacker that can do it all. On paper, they have one of the best offensive lines in football, though it has struggled at times this year – LG Quenton Nelson does not appear to be over the foot injury he suffered in camp. Carson Wentz has decent numbers this season and has carved up lesser competition, but tries too hard to make a play at times and makes boneheaded decisions. The defense leads the league in turnovers (20), but has one of the league’s worst pass defenses WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Turnovers on defense, Jonathan Taylor, Darius Leonard, unbothered Carson Wentz WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Carson Wentz under pressure, offensive line underperformance, pass defense, pass rush
NFL THIRD TIER – “HOW SHOULD I KNOW?” Hiding somewhere in or below the second tier are two teams that are tough to get a handle on for differing reasons: the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos. Despite not liking what Seattle has done so far this year, Russell Wilson coming back is a significant wild card, as is their end of season schedule, which includes four tough games and five less so. For Denver, the issue is more that they are a very inconsistent team, capable of blowing teams like Dallas out of the water, but otherwise struggles to put points on the board.
18. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-5) 3rd place, NFC West, 4.5 games behind Arizona Week 4 Ranking: 10 Strength of Schedule: .537 (9th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-4 Best win: Week 4 at Niners, 28-21 Worst loss: Week 3 at Vikings, 30-17 Next four games: at Green Bay (7-2), vs Arizona (8-1), at Washington (2-6) MNF, vs San Francisco (3-5) There is no injury that impacted a team more than a broken and dislocated middle finger did to the Seattle Seahawks. Even before the injury, the Seahawks were struggling on defense, but QB Russell Wilson gave the Seahawks hope that they could overcome those woes. Now, a little more than four weeks after surgery to fix the finger, Wilson finds his way back into the lineup to help save the Seahawks’ season. It won’t be easy though, this first two games are at 7-2 Green Bay and home to the 8-1 Cardinals. If anyone can do it, it’s Wilson – he no longer qualifies but he would be first in passer rating (125.3) and yards per attempt (9.6) by considerable margins. This team is likely at the top of the Middle Class if Wilson remained in. With Geno Smith, the team likely drops to into the next tier below. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Passing offense with Russell Wilson in, Receiver combo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, only four turnovers on offense all season WHAT NOT TO LIKE: awful defense, run game, toothless pass rush, low turnovers on defense
19. DENVER BRONCOS (5-4) t-3rd place, AFC West, 1/2 game behind LA Chargers Week 4 Ranking: 18 Strength of Schedule: .486 (23rd) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-4 Best win: Week 9 at Cowboys, 30-16 Worst loss: Week 6 vs Raiders, 34-24 Next four games: vs Philadelphia (3-6), BYE, vs LA Chargers (5-3), at Kansas City (5-4) Before Week 9, the book on Denver was pretty clear – they can beat the scrubs but struggle against good teams. Their first four wins were against teams that are now a combined 9-24, they hadn’t topped 24 points since mid-September and were 0-4 against teams over .500, and just traded their franchise pass rusher Von Miller to the Rams. So what do they do? Lay a beatdown on the previously 6-1 Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. The Broncos were up 30-0 with just over 4 minutes left before the Cowboys put up a couple garbage time TDs. The Broncos dominated the game on the ground and by getting pressure on Dak Prescott. If the Broncos lose Week 9, we start looking at the Broncos as 6-7 win team that had a good start because of a soft early schedule. Now? They could be a sneaky playoff contender if things go right. The next few games, especially the back-to-back weeks against the Chargers and Chiefs, will tell us once and for all. WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Defense, especially against the run, two-headed rushing attack of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, S Justin Simmons WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Limitations of passing offense, too many sacks
Next up is the third and final part of the series, where we chronicle the mediocre middle of the NFC and the awful teams at the bottom of the standings. See you there!
Here is the list of games for Week 10 in the NFL, including an intriguing matchup between the Seahawks and the Packers at Lambeau as both starting QBs will look to make their returns if they get green lights.
We have at least one weekend like this every year: a weekend where the favourites all lose and by the time 4 pm rolls around, poolies are throwing their bets and picks sheets in the garbage. Usually, these weekends happen a little earlier as a sort of market correction occurs and hot starts get extinguished. This time around, teams that have half a season of good film on their resume came up with stinkers in Week 9.
The only question is which game was the worst of the weekend, and there are two obvious candidates: 1. Buffalo, who couldn’t find the end zone against the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS in a 9-6 loss 2. Dallas, who fell to a 30-0 fourth quarter deficit to a struggling Broncos team at home, before getting some garbage time TDs to make the game look slightly more respectable.
For my money, the worst loss of the weekend was the Bills. The Cowboys looked like a team that was in need of a reality check as they played with the sort of overconfidence that does not last long in the NFL. The Bills loss was directly related to offensive issues that have cropped up in recent weeks that need correction. While it is true that the Bills looked like an uninterested team that felt like the game was won by just showing up, but the loss did expose some truths about the Bills anemic run game, as well as some questions about their offensive line. The Jaguars went into Week 9 with 11 sacks and TWO turnovers, and tallied four sacks and three turnovers in this game alone.
In the other games, we saw the following upsets: Atlanta beat the Saints 27-25 – after blowing an 18 point fourth quarter lead (where have we seen that before), the Falcons got a last second field goal from Younghoe Koo to take the victory back from the jaws of defeat. Cleveland destroyed Cincinnati 41-16 in a week where they parted ways from mercurial WR Odell Beckham Jr. This game may be the start of a rallying point for the Browns, who were 4-4 but seemed to be vastly underperforming. Arizona won 31-17 over San Francisco with Colt McCoy at QB and no DeAndre Hopkins. They did, however, have James Conner, who score three TDs in the victory. Tennessee beat the Rams 28-16 in yet another game that reflected better on the losers than it should have. Without Derrick Henry, the Titans had a huge game from Jeffery Simmons, who sacked Matthew Stafford three times and caused a horrific throw from the Rams QB which led to an interception deep in Rams territory. Stafford then followed that up 26 seconds later with a pick-six. The Giants beat the Raiders 23-16 as well. If I’m completely honest, I didn’t see much of this game.
In the pool, the upsets messed with everyone, as only one player, Salvo, scored in double figures this week. We’ll have bad weeks as a whole every once in a while and it is not a bad thing to get a low score when everyone else is in the dumper as well. However, if everyone else stinks and you have a good week, that is where you can make some ground.
Salvo missed on only one confidence pick (everyone else missed at least two!) and he came away from this week with 11 points. His strong week put Salvo into the top 5, and he is now standing in a third-place tie with 113 total points.
In the rest of the pool, Jerome re-took the top spot in the pool and now has 116 points, one point ahead of Will, and three points up on third place Salvo and Sam. Paul rounds out the top five with 112 points.
At this point of the season, tiers are starting to emerge in the league: Top Teams (8), the teams most likely to appear in the AFC and NFC championship games – appears below Middle Class (9), a collection of mostly AFC teams that are generally good but with a fatal flaw – will appear Wednesday The Seattle and Denver tier (2), because I’m not sure what to make of them right now for very different reasons – will also be posted Wednesday Mediocre NFC Teams (8), teams that are not very good but technically still have at least an outside shot at the final playoff spot – will be posted Thursday Bad AFC Teams (and Detroit) (5) – will be posted Thursday
TOP TIER TEAMS These eight teams are the class of the NFL this season. There are some bad losses in there (Week 9 was especially rough to this group) but all of the teams in this section have played like teams that have the potential to be around for AFC/NFC championship weekend. The NFC is a very top-heavy conference, with five teams with two losses or less, but only six total teams above .500. The Bills, at 5-3, are the only three loss team in this group, as their defense is elite enough to merit entry on its own.
Kyler Murray and the Cardinals top the league at the halfway mark
ARIZONA CARDINALS (8-1) 1st place, NFC West Week 4 ranking: 1 Strength of schedule: .494 (19th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 3-1 Best win: Week 5 at Rams, 37-20 Worst loss: Week 8 vs Packers, 24-21 Next four weeks: vs Carolina (4-5), at Seattle (3-5), BYE, at Chicago (3-5) The Arizona Cardinals are the league’s only one-loss team, and that loss might’ve been avoided if AJ Green and Kyler Murray did not have THAT miscommunication at the end of the Green Bay game. The Cardinals have what might be the two best wins this season, both on the road: Week 1 at Tennessee, and Week 5 at the Rams WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM?: Pretty much everything: the whole offense, and pass defense. Led by Kyler Murray, the offense is fast-paced, high-powered, efficient, and protects the football. The Cardinals are fifth in yards per game (398), first in net yards per pass attempt (7.9), first (by a wide margin) in completion percentage (73.85%), second in rushing touchdowns (15), second in points per game (30.8). On defense, the Cardinals are fourth in yards against per game (321), third in turnovers caused (17), first in recovered fumbles (10), and sixth in passing yards allowed per game (210). They’ll have a chance to add to their tally against Carolina, who has 18 turnovers already this year. QB Kyler Murray:72.7% Cmp Pct, 2,276 passing yards, 8.9 yards per pass, 17 TD-7 INT, 49 rushes, 147 yards, 3 TD. The do-it-all dynamo is one of the top MVP candidates on the best team in football. Normally, passers who have high completion percentages throw shorter passes, but with Murray’s arm strength and pinpoint accuracy, he’s also able to effectively throw the deep ball. Thunder and Lightning RB duo: RBs James Conner (454 rush yards, 10 rush TD, 1 rec TD) and Chase Edmonds (430 rush yds, 30 rec, 211 rec yds) have been the perfect thunder and lightning combo, combining for over 1,200 total yards in the Cardinals offense. Conner, the free agent acquisition from Pittsburgh, added some much-needed power running to this offense and is now tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (10). FOUR good wide receivers: With the Air Raid offense, the Cardinals run more 4 WR sets than any team in the league (though that has changed since Zach Ertz was acquired) and they have used all four of their wideouts effectively – DeAndre Hopkins is one of the better receivers in the league and is the Cardinals’ best receiver in the red zone (35 rec, 486 yards, 7 TD), though Christian Kirk is emerging as a big playmaker (40 rec, 545 yards, 4 TD), AJ Green – Week 8 gaffe notwithstanding – has enjoyed a career renaissance in the desert (29 rec, 456 yards, 3 TD), and rookie Rondale Moore, like Murray small in stature but a game breaker with the ball in his hands, has been used a lot in jet sweep and bubble screen actions to get him the ball in space (34 rec, 352 yards, 1 TD). The reprisal of the QB Hunters, Markus Golden and Chandler Jones: The Cardinals defense is one of the best in the league and has many talented players, but the return to form for both Jones (6 sacks, 2 forced fumbles) and Golden (9 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) after disappointing 2020 seasons is a big reason for it. Golden in particular has been great off the edge this season, ranking third in sacks and leads the league in forced fumbles. WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: If there is one hole in this team, it’s their run defense. The Cardinals allow 111 rushing yards per game, which is 15th in the league, but they allow the second-most yards per carry (4.9). The Cardinals are great against the pass and, being ahead in most games, their struggles have not posed an issue for most of the season. However, the Packers were able to control their game by running the football and teams on their schedule that can run the ball like Chicago and Dallas will look to exploit them. This will be an interesting trend to watch as this team was designed to be fast and the defensive line took a big hit when JJ Watt suffered what appears to be a season-ending shoulder injury (though the Cardinals refuse to rule that out).
LOS ANGELES RAMS (7-2) 2nd place, NFC West Week 4 Ranking: 3 Strength of Schedule: .449 (27th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 1-2 Best win: Week 3 vs Bucs, 34-24 Worst loss: Week 9, vs Titans, 28-16 Next four weeks: at San Francisco (3-5) MNF, BYE, at Green Bay (7-2), vs Jacksonville (2-6) The Rams are as close to a complete team as there might be in the NFL and since they lost two games at home (one to the Cardinals and this past weekend to the Titans), they may be facing a road game in Wild Card Weekend. The Rams are 4-0 away from SoFi Stadium, so they are comfortable with winning on the road (though not exactly facing Murderer’s Row). Picking up Von Miller will add to an already unfair pass rush and the offense is loaded with Pro Bowlers. WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM?: Passing offense and run defense. The Rams traded two first round picks and a third, along with Jared Goff to acquire Matthew Stafford from Detroit and after nine games, the return was worth the price paid. The Rams offense hit another gear with the veteran QB that was not possible with Goff, as evidenced by them being tied for first in yards per pass play (7.9), third in passing yards per game (296), second in passing touchdowns (23), and are fourth in total yards per game (399). On the other side of the ball, the Rams allow a hair under 100 yards per game on the ground and are ninth in yards per carry (4.1), as teams are generally fearful of running the ball into the teeth of the Rams defense (those teeth belonging to perennial DPOY candidate Aaron Donald). The Rams are also second in the league in interceptions, with 12. Unsurprisingly, CB Jalen Ramsey leads the way with 3 INTs. QB Matthew Stafford: Stafford has been able to unlock the deep passing portion of Sean McVay’s offense in LA, leading the league in passing yards (2,771), second in TDs (23), fourth in yards per attempt (8.6), and ranks first in the QB rating metric (111), trailing only Russell Wilson. WR Cooper Kupp: Stafford and Kupp have struck up a nearly unbeatable rapport, which has given some momentum to MVP talks for the veteran wide receiver. Kupp leads the league in nearly every receiving category: receptions (74), targets (103), yards (1019, 137 more than second placed Deebo Samuel), receiving TDs (10, 2 more than Mike Evans and DK Metcalf), receiving yards per game (113.2), and receiving first downs (46). DT Aaron Donald: where most starting interior defensive linemen play between 50-66% of their teams snaps, Donald has played in over 85% of the Rams defensive snaps this season. He has contributed 37 tackles, 6 sacks, and seven tackles for loss in another exceptional season. Pass rush: The Rams lead the league in sacks (28), behind an exceptional pass rush, led by Donald (6 sacks), and OLB Leonard Floyd (7.5). Seven Rams have contributed two or more sacks, and this deadly pass rush will be made more lethal with the addition of Von Miller. WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Run game. Despite decent numbers individually from RB Darrell Henderson, the Rams run offense is in the bottom half in the league in both yards (103 per game), and yards per attempt (4.0, 11th-worst in the league). Sony Michel has been somewhat underwhelming as the secondary option, which could spell trouble if Henderson goes down with an injury.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-2) 1st place, NFC South Week 4 Ranking: 4 Strength of Schedule: .507 (17th) Record vs Above .500 teams: 2-2 Best win: Week 1 vs Cowboys, 31-29 Worst Loss: Week 8 at Saints, 36-27 Next four weeks: at Washington (2-6), vs NY Giants (3-6) MNF, at Indianapolis (4-5), at Atlanta (4-4) The defending Super Bowl Champions are 6-2 coming out of the bye and facing a favourable schedule in the third quartile of the season. This team can put up points with any team, which is fortunate because the pass defense can allow points with anyone as well. WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM?: Tampa Bay has the league’s best passing offense (327.5 yards per game), the most points per game (32.5), the most passing touchdowns (25), and the second-best run defense in the league (78 rush yards against per game). QB Tom Brady: the ageless wonder continues to defeat Father Time. The 44 year-old Brady is second in passing yards (2,650), first in yards per game (331), second in pass attempts (343), despite already having the bye week, first in touchdowns (25), and only 5 interceptions. Yet another MVP calibre season from the GOAT. Offensive Line: LT Tristan Wirfs, LG Ali Marpet, C Ryan Jensen, RG Alex Cappa, and RT Donovan Smith form arguably the best front five in the league has kept Tom Brady upright, with only 12 sacks allowed in 8 games. A big factor in their success – along with their consistetly elite play – has been durability, the starting unit has missed a combined 43 snaps all season. Wide Receivers: Notice a trend? The Bucs have a trio that could challenge any in the league – Curtis Godwin (50 rec, 660 yards, 4 TD), Mike Evans (39 rec, 544 yards, 8 TD), and Antonio Brown (5 gp, 29 rec, 418 yards, 4 TD). RB Leonard Fournette is also a big part of the offense and if TE Rob Gronkowksi can return to the lineup and contribute, this will be a tough offense to slow down. Run defense: The interior defensive line, NT Vita Vea and DT Ndamukong Suh, don’t have numbers that light up the stat sheet, but both players require extra attention from the opposing offensive lines, which opens up opportunities for two of the best linebackers in football, Lavonte David and Devin White. Both David and White are tackling machines that might average more than their 7 tackles each per game individually, but together are always around the ball carrier in the run game. WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: The pass defense has struggled all season, ranking 20th in yards allowed per game (258), 6th last in passing TDs allowed (16), 6th last in opposition completion percentage (68.32%). CB Richard Sherman was signed by the team as injuries began to mount, though his fit in the defensive scheme has not been defined to this point.
DALLAS COWBOYS (6-2) 1st place, NFC East Week 4 Ranking: 6 Strength of Schedule: .493 (21st) Record vs Above .500 teams: 2-2 Best win: Week 6 at Patriots, 35-29 Worst loss: Week 9 vs Broncos, 30-16 Next four games: vs Atlanta (4-4), at Kansas City (5-4), vs Las Vegas (5-3), at New Orleans (5-3) It was all good just a week ago. The Cowboys just went into Minneapolis and beat the Vikings with backup QB Cooper Rush, who was surprisingly good. The Cowboys went back home full of confidence, with the knowledge that they could beat an average team with their backup QB and, with their starting QB now healthy, figured they could roll over the 4-4 Broncos. Whoops. The Cowboys got a harsh lesson in being too high on yourselves as the Broncos marched to a 30-0 fourth quarter lead, only to see the Cowboys score a couple garbage time TDs to make the game look less embarrassing. All in all though, the Cowboys are a true contender with a high-powered offense and an improved defense. If they can play like they mean it – like they did the previous eight weeks – big things may be happening in Big D. WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Best offense in the league?, timely picks on defense Even with the slip-up last week, the Cowboys still have one of the league’s best offenses, with the most average yards per game (423), most yards per play (6.4), third-most points per game (30.1), third-most rushing yards per game (142.8), and fourth-most passing yards per game (291.5) Dak Prescott: After suffering that gruesome ankle injury last year, Prescott has returned to form in a big way, with 2045 passing yards in seven games, 18 TD-5 INT, and a 108.7 passer rating, good for fourth in the league. Zeke and Tony Pollard: the 1-2 punch of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have combined for 1,025 rushing yards, 301 receiving yards, and 7 total TDs through eight games. Zeke’s return to form is especially welcome after a rough 2020 in which he had his lowest yards per carry and fumbled five times. He has yet to put the ball on the ground this year so far as is at a career-high 4.9 YPC. Pollard has been exceptional in his role as a 1B back, with an impressive 5.6 YPC and 403 rushing yards. Elite receivers CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz?: Both Lamb and Cooper are big CB Trevon Diggs: 2021 has been a breakout season for the second year corner, who had interceptions in each of the Cowboys first six games. While he can be beaten at times, Diggs has made impact plays all season for the Cowboys, and leads the league in picks (7), passes defended (12), and defensive touchdowns (2). WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Pass defense Yes, CB Trevon Diggs has been spectacular, but the Cowboys still allow too many passing yards. The Cowboys are eighth-worst in yards allowed per game (270.5), and ninth-worst in yards per attempt (7.0), contributing the the Cowboys having the fourth-worst yards per play in the league. This is actually an improvement on 2020, when the Cowboys had one of the worst defenses statistically in league history. However, they will look to make further improvements if they wish to make it to the NFC Championship game (and beyond).
BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-2) 1st place, AFC North Week 4 Ranking: 5 Strength of Schedule: .471 (25th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 3-2 Best win: Week 2 vs Chiefs, 36-35 Worst loss: Week 8 vs Bengals, 41-17 Next four games: at Miami (2-7), at Chicago (3-6), vs Cleveland (5-4), at Pittsburgh (5-4) The Baltimore Ravens are one of the best teams in the AFC once again and relying largely on their run game, starting with their dynamic QB Lamar Jackson. However, some things are different about this Ravens team in 2021 – Jackson has improved as a passer, and while the run defense is still strong, the pass defense, outside of a stellar performance against the Chargers, has been among the league’s worst. WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Lamar Jackson improving as a passer, run offense Before this season, teams understood that the way to neutralize the Ravens was to force Jackson to become a passer first. Easier said than done for most teams, though in consecutive seasons, the Chargers and the Bills figured out the formula and stopped Jackson and the Ravens in the playoffs. While we haven’t reached that part of the season yet, we are seeing signs that Lamar Jackson is much more confident in the passing game. Jackson is ninth in passing yards per game (276.1), and sixth in yards per attempt (8.3). His improved passing has helped the Ravens win come-from-behind games against Kansas City, Detroit, and Minnesota that they might not have won in previous seasons. Prior to the start of the season, the Ravens lost their top three running backs – JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill – to season ending injuries. In response to this, their lone remaining RB Ty’Son Williams was joined by free agent signings Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, and Le’Veon Bell. Together with Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have not missed a beat, with the average rushing yards per game (161.6), and the third-highest yards per carry (5.0). WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Pass defense, lack of turnovers on defense The Ravens have been uncharacteristically poor on defense, with the second-most yards allowed per play (6.25, ahead of only the Chiefs), and the second-most total yards allowed per game (282.5). Even their run defense, ranked fifth best in the league is somewhat misleading as they still average 4.3 YPC on the ground, which is middle-of-the-pack. A big factor for the defense’s poor performance has been their inability to generate turnovers, getting the ball only seven times on defense all season, ahead of only the Niners, Jaguars, and Jets.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-2) 1st place, NFC North Week 4 Ranking: 11 Strength of Schedule: .474 (24th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 3-2 Best win: Week 8 at Cardinals, 24-21 Worst loss: Week 1 at Saints, 38-3 Next four games: vs Seattle (3-5), at Minnesota (3-5), vs LA Rams (7-2), vs Chicago (3-6) Despite the circus that has followed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers for most of this season, the Packers have overcome the distractions, and a horrific opening weekend, to easily lead the NFC North. While Rodgers was getting some soft MVP consideration, the defense has been the strength of the 7-2 Packers so far. WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Rodgers efficiency, strong defense The offense has struggled at times and has not put up the numbers you generally suspect from Green Bay, the Packers have turned the ball over only eight times, with only three of those turnovers coming from Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is sixth in the league in passer rating (105.7), and has thrown 17 TD- 3 INT, one of the better ratios in the league. Davante Adams: Though Adams missed the Arizona game due to a positive COVID-19 test, he still ranks third in receptions (58), fourth in receiveing yards (786), and third in receiving first downs. On a team with only one real reliable option in the passing game, Adams continues to produce, depsite the extra attention paid to him. Balanced defense: When Jaire Alexander went down with a shoulder injury in Week 4, there were fears that the Packers defense would suffer because of it. On a team with good players but not much top end talent, the Packers have instead become one of the league’s best team defensive units. Five players have two or more sacks, including Rashean Gary’s team leading 4.5; the Packers also have eight players with interceptions, though only LB De’Vondre Campbell has more than one. The Packers are fifth in yards allowed per game (321), fifth in yards per play (5.3), tied for fifth in turnovers (14), and seventh in passing yards allowed per game (210). WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Stagnant offense As a counter to the Packers strong defense, the Packers offense has been somewhat stagnant this year. For all of Rodgers’ efficiency, the Packers rank 22nd in yards per game (333), 20th in yards per play (5.5), 20th in points per game (22.1), 22nd in passing yards per game (223.8), and 18th in rushing yards per game (109.7). The Packers have placed an emphasis on protecting the football and winning the field position game, which has worked so far, but will likely need to do more on offense as the season wears on.
TENNESSEE TITANS (7-2) 1st place, AFC South Week 4 Ranking: 13 Strength of Schedule: .519 (12th) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 4-1 Best win: Week 9 at Rams, 28-16 Worst loss: Week 4 at Jets, 27-24 Next four games: vs New Orleans (5-3), vs Houston (1-8), at New England (5-4), vs Jacksonville (2-6) The Titans were a Jekyll and Hyde team early this year, getting blown out by the Cardinals at home in Week 1 and losing to the Jets in Week 4, though they did win at Seattle. In the second quarter of the season, they went a perfect 5-0, including a demolition of the Chiefs and big wins over the Bills and Rams. This is a team that has the resume of a top-two team in the NFL… and in the AFC South, they’re likely a win or two away from clinching the division already. So why are they in seventh place in the Power Rankings? There may not be a more valuable player to a team, certainly for non-quarterbacks, than Derrick Henry is to the Titans. The Titans will need to continue to prove it in the second half of the season to elevate their ranking. WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Plays big against good teams, play action offense, pass rush, awful division No team has more wins against above-.500 teams than the Titans and the team, especially the defense, has played a lot better as the season has worn on. They completely shut down the Chiefs in Week 7 and the Rams could only get going in their game once the Titans had already mounted a massive lead. The Titans offense has been a finely tuned machine with Derrick Henry requiring teams to stack the box, opening up the passing game when running play action. For that, QB Ryan Tannehill is a perfect fit. If Adrian Peterson can generate a similar amount of respect from opposing defenses, Tannehill can use play action and target their two top receivers, AJ Brown and Julio Jones AJ Brown: aside from Derrick Henry, AJ Brown is the team’s most talented skill position player. Brown leads the team with 40 receptions, 551 yards, 3 TDs, and 26 passing first downs. Brown will get considerably more attention from opposing defenses with Henry out of the lineup. Pressure inside and out with DT Jeffery Simmons and OLB Harold Landry. Aside from Aaron Donald, no interior lineman plays more snaps, or has more of an impact from the middle, than Jeffery Simmons. The former first round pick has 30 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and 7 tackles for loss. Simmons had a monstrous game against the Rams, putting up three sacks and another rush that caused Matthew Stafford to throw a Wentzian interception in the second quarter. Landry has exploded in his fourth season in the league following three years of uneven play, Landry is currently tied for third in the league with 9 sacks and is second on the team with 47 tackles. God-awful AFC South: One significant advantage for the Titans is the division they play in. Having already swept the Colts, Tennessee has two games against the Texans and one against Jacksonville in the final half of their season. Having two of the five worst teams in the league (if I’m generous) means easy wins for a team of the Titans’ calibre. WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Over-reliance on Derrick Henry. Despite missing last week, Derrick Henry still leads all rushers in yards (by 116), TDs (tied with James Conner), and rushing attempts (by 69!). Though he is out for the rest of the season, he should remain in the top 15-20 in each of those categories. Long story short, the Titans have put their eggs in one basket on offense and will need to prove they can win without him. They did just fine against the Rams, though they needed the defense to play big as the offense only contributed 194 yards of total offense. They should do enough to win the division, and will hope that Henry can return in time for the playoffs (a distinct possibility). However, this will be their opportunity to grow the offense in other ways.
BUFFALO BILLS (5-3) 1st place, AFC East Week 4 Ranking: 2 Strength of Schedule: .377 (32nd) Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-2 Best win: Week 5 at Chiefs, 38-20 Worst loss: Week 9 at Jaguars, 9-6 Next four games: at NY Jets (2-6), vs Indianapolis (4-5), at New Orleans (5-3) TNF, vs New England (5-4) MNF The Buffalo Bills are a tale of two teams: on the good side are the Week 2-5 Bills, which steamrolled its competition, outscoring their competition 156-41, but there is a dark side – the Week 1 loss to the Steelers and the most recent stretch where the Bills look lost on offense. The defense is elite – though its outstanding numbers may be buoyed by the level of competition – and the pass attack can beat anyone when clicking, but what happens when the passing game is neutralized, as it has been on a number of occasions this season? WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Elite defense, strong pass offense The stats that can be used to state the Bills dominance on defense are vast – they are the best unit in: points allowed per game (14.8, 2.2 fewer than second-best Denver), total yards per game (262.6, 30.5 fewer than second-best Carolina), yards per play (4.5, 0.5 fewer than Carolina), passing yards allowed per game (177), passing touchdowns allowed (5!, 5 fewer than the Chargers), net yards allowed per play (4.9, 0.6 fewer than Carolina and Las Vegas). The Bills are in the top five in most other categories. This can be swayed because they’ve played the Texans, Dolphins twice, and Washington, but this unit is a force to be reckoned with. The Bills have a strong passing attack, which ranks seventh in yards per game (270), though it has run hot and cold at times. QB Josh Allen: the Bills QB is putting up another strong season, though not quite at the pace he set last season. Allen ranks eighth in yards per game (279.5), and has a strong 17 TD- 5 INT ratio, and is third in rushing yards by a QB (319). Wide receiver trio: with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders, the Bills have three dependable wide receivers that can be used in various aspects of the passing game, Stefon Diggs (48 rec, 588 yards, 3 TD) is the all-around star receiver, Sanders (28 rec, 478 yards, 4 TD) is the deep threat, and Cole Beasley (51 rec, 446 yards, 1 TD) is the slot receiver that Josh Allen tends to rely on in third down and short yardage situations. Dawson Knox (21 rec, 286 yards, 5 TD) also emerged as a red zone and short yardage target, and the Bills have looked lost on offense since he went down to injury in Week 6. WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Non-existent run game Technically, the Bills are 11th in the league in rushing yards per game (119.75), though about 1/3 of those yards belong to Josh Allen. When not using Allen in the run game the Bills have to rely on Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Moss has really struggled this season, putting up only 233 yards on a meager 3.6 yards per carry. Singletary has been better with 355 yards on 4.9 YPC but the Bills do not feel comfortable with either back in pressure situations, as the Bills still rely on short passes in more obvious run situations, such as holding the lead late in games. Miami was able to use that to their advantage for three quarters in Week 8, while the Jacksonville Jaguars – of all teams! – was able to neutralize the Bills as they were able to effectively ignore the Bills run game and put in plays to constantly pressure the quarterback. The Bills will need to get more production from their backs to prevent better teams from doing the same thing in future games.
As of Tuesday morning, we’ll have reached the official halfway mark of the NFL season. Some really interesting matchups this week:
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-2): With the circus surrounding the impending departure of Odell Beckham Jr, how will the Browns react? As for Cincinnati, after beating the Ravens, the Bengals came out an laid an egg against the Jets. This seems to be a team that rises to the occasion when needed but has issues keeping the consistency. This is a game they should be ready for. EDIT: They weren’t ready. Browns go out and destroy the Bengals 41-16. Green Bay at Kansas City (-7): So did you know Aaron Rodgers is not playing this week? Jordan Love makes his first ever start, but all the WRs (Davante Adams included) are back today, so that will help. Kansas City, though 4-4, are struggling and the only reason they won on Monday was likely that they were playing the Giants (without Saquon Barkley at that). This game may be a lot closer than you think. Arizona at San Francisco (-3.5): Both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are true game-time decisions, but not expected to play. If they play, the decision on this game could change considerably (and certainly the line will). Tennessee at LA Rams (-7.5): All Day makes his return. Derrick Henry and peak Adrian Peterson have much in common, but how much will the 36 year-old version resemble the beast from Bama? AJ Brown vs Jalen Ramsey is a must-see matchup. QB Ryan Tannehill has become one of the better quarterbacks in play-action, so Henry’s absence will mean more to the offense than just a loss of rushing yards. New acquisition Von Miller is a game-time decision for the Rams as he recovers from an ankle injury.
Time
Away
Home
Line
Predictor
1:00
Las Vegas
NY Giants
3
Las Vegas +1
1:00
Atlanta
New Orleans
-6.5
New Orleans +1
1:00
Buffalo
Jacksonville
14.5
Buffalo
1:00
Cleveland
Cincinnati
-2
Cleveland
1:00
New England
Carolina
3
New England
1:00
Denver
Dallas
-10
Dallas
1:00
Minnesota
Baltimore
-7
Baltimore
1:00
Houston
Miami
-4
Miami +1
4:05
LA Chargers
Philadelphia
0
LA Chargers
4:25
Green Bay
Kansas City
-7
Kansas City
4:25
Arizona
San Francisco
-3.5
Arizona
8:20
Tennessee
LA Rams
-7.5
LA Rams
8:20
Chicago
Pittsburgh
-6.5
Chicago
UPDATE 1 pm games: favourites were 3-5 straight up and 2-6 against the line. The two double digit favourites (Buffalo and Dallas) both lost straight up.
Week 9 kicks off with a real barnburner as the 2-5 Jets take on the 3-5 Colts LIVE from Lucas Oil Stadium in beautiful downtown Indianapolis. The Jets come off an upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8 while the Colts come off a home loss to the division rival Titans.
Line: Colts -10 Predictor: Colts + 1 Matt: Colts
Two below .500 teams meet up in Indianapolis, the Colts – who have so far underperformed expectations – and the Jets – who have so far done as expected. Will Mike White throw for 400+ yards again? That seems quite unlikely, however, the Jets seem to be playing better of late (not calling them good, but less bad maybe?) while the Colts seem to be stuck in a season-long malaise.
I went Colts in this one as, on paper, they are the better team. However, I do not have any confidence in them covering the spread, seeing as the Jets seem frisky of late and the Colts are far too inconsistent at the moment. Not exactly hammering the +10 either, for what it’s worth.
