Week 14 features the last of the bye weeks, as New England, Miami, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia all finally get to take their weeks off (interesting that all of those teams have played very well of late – if worried about losing momentum this could be an example of an off-week occurring at the wrong time).
The biggest game of Week 14, like Week 13, is the Monday night game. However, would expect the weather conditions to be much different in the dome in Glendale as the 8-4 Rams face off with the 10-2 Cardinals. Other big games this week: Buffalo travels to Tampa to take on the defending champs. Another big test of a team on the precipice of the non-playoff abyss for the Bills. A loss would mean that the Bills would be outside of the playoffs with four games left. Dallas at Washington: following a 2-6 start, a four game win streak finds WFT in the second wild card spot and, with two head-to-head games left, the division title is still within their grasp. The Cowboys will look to build on a strong Week 13 against New Orleans. San Francisco at Cincinnati: two wild card teams face off in Cincinnati with major playoff implications. The Bengals will look to wash away the stink of their Week 13 home loss to the Chargers, while the Niners will similarly look to get back in the win column after their disappointing loss to the Seahawks. Pittsburgh at Minnesota: the Thursday nighter features a game where neither team can afford to lose, as both teams reside just outside the playoffs at present time. The loser of this game likely has to win out in the final four weeks to remain in contention. Baltimore at Cleveland: this AFC North showdown means a lot more to the Browns who, at 6-6, need this game to have even a remote chance at the postseason. Baltimore will be looking to rebound after their heartbreaking 20-19 loss at Pittsburgh. Las Vegas at Kansas City: A loss is fatal to the Raiders post-season chances and with a recent 41-14 home loss to these same Chiefs, Las Vegas’ backs are against the wall in this one. The Chiefs will look to add to their five-game winning streak with a big win over this division foe.
While interesting as a spectacle, a game that features 50-80 km/h winds is not generally one from which you can form many lasting opinions. A lot of factors come into play in anomaly games that you can’t take too seriously. The Bills couldn’t throw the ball early in the game but somewhat found their footing late, especially as Josh Allen started to make some plays using his legs. So while the Bills lost here, there may be some valuable lessons that can be applied as the season goes on. The Patriots not throwing the ball at all could mean that they were not comfortable with Mac Jones throwing in bad weather… but could also mean that they were supremely confident that they just needed to play a ball-control game and felt the early TD was enough for them to do just that.
I’ll go through a series of hot takes heard during and after the game and add my own commentary on how much to take out of them. Usually with these takes there’s a kernel of truth but just taken to extremes because, as always, unhinged shouting is better entertainment than balanced, educated takes.
Hot take: The Bills run defense was embarrassing for a supposed top defensive team. They gave up 222 rushing yards, even though they knew New England was going to run the ball every down. If this team cannot stop the run when they know it’s coming, how can they stop the run when they don’t? Verdict: This is true to an extent. The Bills only gave up 14 points in this game, so it was more of a bend-but-don’t-break sort of situation for this defense. However, with the more physical, run-heavy teams in the AFC, there is reason to believe the Bills face a challenge in the post-season, especially if paired with any of these teams: New England, Tennessee, Baltimore, Cleveland, or Indianapolis. The Bills were designed to matchup better with Kansas City – and they did blow out the Chiefs in Week 5 – but in the meantime, teams with strong offensive lines that run more often are the teams that will cause them trouble. They had trouble in this game, but also had trouble with the Titans and Colts with their dominant running backs. If they, for instance, face the Titans in the Wild Card round and Derrick Henry is back (and that is his timetable for return at this point) and healthy (jury will be out), we can expect the Titans to give him the ball 30-35 times. Can the Bills stop him?
Hot take: Mac Jones threw 3 times because he is a warm weather QB that can’t handle winter conditions. The Patriots are in trouble if they face a team that can stop the run in the playoffs. Verdict: We have essentially no evidence to this point that Mac Jones can or cannot play in the cold, blustery northern winters. Jones played at Alabama in a warm weather conference with virtually no games played in the cold. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels may not have been confident in Jones’ ability to throw in bad weather, but wind like they experienced last night is not likely to come up again – there’s a big difference between “blustery” and the gale-force winds from last night’s game. We don’t really have a feel for how he’ll fare in the snow, as he’s never played a snow game. The Patriots have two more home games (one against these Bills on Boxing Day) and we should get more reliable data in those games in terms of how Jones deals with the cold. Further, it is likely that the Patriots felt very confident in their run game and knew with the conditions and their defense, the score would be low. Putting up the quick 8 points was likely as big a factor in how the Pats played this game as their confidence (or lack thereof) in their rookie QB.
Hot take, Part I: The Bills cannot run the ball and cannot stop the run, so they are not built for success in their home stadium or in the playoffs. Hot take, Part II: The Bills need to build a dome to succeed. Verdict: The Bills beat both the Colts and Ravens at home in the playoffs last season, despite not being able to fill up the stat sheet. This is a situation where an outlier game should not be taken as gospel when it comes to making decisions about teams. The Week 11 game against Indianapolis however should be taken as a learning moment and it will be interesting to see how they adapt. The playoffs are not a certainty at this point for Buffalo – they are clutching onto the seven seed due to a poor conference record and both the Steelers and Colts have tiebreakers (though the Steelers will not be able to use theirs due to their tie). The Bills more than any other team will need to win 11 games to make the postseason. They still do have the talent to turn this around though and should not be counted out just yet. With respect to needing a dome? While this team is built more on passing the football and defending the pass, it should be stressed that games like last night’s are outliers and while you can’t say winter games are played in optimal conditions, you can still have success passing the ball in the cold or in some snow. Generally, teams that play in the north or midwest should be built around their conditions though the Patriots did build themselves as a spread passing attack, especially in the late 2000s and most of the 2010s. Also, the Chiefs may not be as far north as the other teams but Kansas City does frequently get winter conditions, and they went to the Super Bowl the past two seasons with an explosive passing attack.
Hot take: The Patriots are the team to beat in the AFC. Verdict: This one gets harder to argue each week. The Pats have won seven in a row and are 7-1 in the conference, including a comprehensive win over the Titans (without Derrick Henry). They still have the Colts and Bills again in the coming weeks, though their defense has proven to be one of, if not THE, best in the league. The other team to watch out for is Kansas City, who is riding a five-game winning streak of their own. The Chiefs struggled on both sides of the ball early this season but their defense has turned a corner and their offense has been adapting to what opposing defenses have given them in recent weeks. The big thing about the AFC though is that, in any given day, any of 10-11 teams could beat each other. Coaching is the big edge, which of course has always been an advantage in the Bill Belichick era. It would be far from surprising to see Belichick in LA on Super Bowl Sunday though far from a given at this point.
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL UPDATE This being the first week of the mini-pools, you can expect an expanded update for this week and all subsequent weeks until the end of the season, as I’ll update both the main standings and the MPs, with the main standings going first.
In the main pool, we once again had a big week from Nigel, who scored 17 of a possible 18 points in Week 13. The only loss? The Raiders losing at home to Washington on a last-second field goal. Nigel was obviously playing possum on us for the earlier part of the season to keep things interesting, as he was once in the bottom five, but have now moved his way up to 32nd in the league with his two big weeks.
In the overall standings, Jerome remains out leader, now with 152 points. Jerome’s one-point lead was maintained, but this time second place belongs to Jason G, who had 13 this week to move up into the runner-up spot. Just behind Jason in third place is the trio of Will, Salvo, and Sam, all with 150 points.
Here are the main pool standings:
Name
Total
Jerome
152
Jason G
151
Will
150
Salvo
150
Sam
150
Paul
149
Steve
147
Donna P
147
Joe L
146
Marcus
145
Baldip
144
Jason R
144
Adam
143
Team Bracken
142
Lourdes
142
Neil
142
Marcel & Aiden
141
Courtney
141
Alessandro
141
Gary
141
Denzil
140
Darryl
139
CSA Red Bulls
139
Farhan
138
Jason H
138
Predictor
137
Jay P
137
Terry
137
Justin
137
Molly
136
Matt
133
Ronda
133
Nigel
132
Keville
132
Quinn
131
Tom
130
Des
130
Darren
129
Joe S
129
Donna K
122
Mark
111
Dwayne
102
David
100
Ruby
19
Average
132.41
Before I start with the mini-pool standings, a reminder that anyone finishing in the top four (and ties) in the main pool are not eligible for prizes in the mini-pools when the season ends, as each entrant can claim only one prize in the pool. The individuals that are not eligible to win *at this time* are highlighted in red. These entrants may be eligible later in the season if their overall pool position drops.
MINI-POOL A Nigel finds himself in mini-pool A, which means he is in first place in this pool, with his 17 points. Nigel has a two point lead over the Predictor who has 15 points, and in third place is Farhan, with 14.
Name
Total
Nigel
17
Predictor
15
Farhan
14
Matt
13
Denzil
13
Adam
13
Team Bracken
13
Alessandro
12
Jerome
12
Salvo
12
Donna K
12
Courtney
12
Ronda
11
Paul
11
Molly
11
Sam
11
Marcus
11
Quinn
11
Darren
11
Joe L
10
CSA Red Bulls
10
Joe S
9
MINI-POOL B Marcel & Aiden find themselves in first place in mini-pool B, with 15 points after the first week. Jason H and Will are in second place with 14, while there is a logjam beneath that, with four tied with 13 points and three more with 12. Still a lot to be decided here
It’s Thursday which means on thing on APY: Thursday Night Football! This game features two struggling teams hoping to break out of their respective funks: the 7-4 Cowboys against the 5-6 Saints.
The Cowboys, losers of three of their last four games, have some good news in that CeeDee Lamb will be back in the lineup tonight, while Amari Cooper is still questionable as he recovers from COVID. Otherwise, the Cowboys are largely healthy and should have their starting offensive line unit together for this one. The Saints, losers of four straight but miraculously still in the race for the wild card, have a litany of injuries to overcome – Alvin Kamara, Terron Armstead, Ryan Ramczyk, Tanoh Kpassangnon, and Marcus Davenport have all been ruled out (starting RB, both starting OTs, two pass rushers) – and Taysom Hill will make his season debut as starting QB.
The Cowboys were sluggish at best in their home loss to the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day, while the Saints got blown out at home by the Bills that same night. In this game, with the Cowboys two top receivers now back in the lineup, as well as a return to health of Tyron Smith and Zach Martin, Dallas *should* roll to a victory, though focus has been an apparent issue at times with this talented team. The Saints injuries don’t bode well for Hill (or Siemian for that matter), though having Mark Ingram back should help somewhat.
As there are only six weeks left to go and a lot of teams are still in contention, this week should offer a lot of matchups where playoff implications will be significant. The biggest game of the week, though, is the last one, where the New England Patriots travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills in an AFC East showdown on Monday Night Football. This game features two of the best defenses in the league so we should expect a lot of hard-hitting action in this one
Here are all the Week 13 games for your enjoyment and selection purposes:
Time
Date
Away
Home
Winner
Conf
Pick Due
Time
8:20
02-Dec
Dallas
New Orleans
02-Dec
8:20 PM
1:00
05-Dec
Indianapolis
Houston
05-Dec
1:00 PM
1:00
05-Dec
Minnesota
Detroit
05-Dec
1:00 PM
1:00
05-Dec
NY Giants
Miami
05-Dec
1:00 PM
1:00
05-Dec
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
05-Dec
1:00 PM
1:00
05-Dec
Philadelphia
NY Jets
05-Dec
1:00 PM
1:00
05-Dec
Arizona
Chicago
05-Dec
1:00 PM
1:00
05-Dec
LA Chargers
Cincinnati
05-Dec
1:00 PM
4:05
05-Dec
Jacksonville
LA Rams
05-Dec
1:00 PM
4:05
05-Dec
Washington
Las Vegas
05-Dec
1:00 PM
4:25
05-Dec
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
05-Dec
1:00 PM
4:25
05-Dec
San Francisco
Seattle
05-Dec
1:00 PM
8:20
05-Dec
Denver
Kansas City
05-Dec
1:00 PM
8:20
06-Dec
New England
Buffalo
05-Dec
1:00 PM
APY NFL FOOTBALL MINI-POOLS Now that we are in the final six weeks of the season, it’s time to kick off the mini-pools – these two pools will be scored based off the results of Weeks 13-18 only. The best scores in each subgroup will take home the $20 prize, with a caveat: no-one who wins one of the main pool’s top four prizes will be eligible to win the mini-pools. For instance, the fourth place finisher in the pool will take home the $20 fourth place prize, not the $20 mini-pool prize. That mini-pool prize will go to the next highest placed eligible person.
As a refresher, here are the prizes for this year’s pool: FIRST PLACE: $600 SECOND PLACE: $150 THIRD PLACE: $70 FOURTH PLACE: $20
The formal addition of the third wild card spot has changed the landscape of the NFL, in that nearly every team still has a shot at the postseason. Under the old format, an AFC would’ve needed 11 wins to get in, and might not have made it even with that number. The 7-4 Bengals and Bills hold the fifth and sixth seeds, respectively and would’ve been tough to supplant for that final playoff spot. With seven seeds, the 6-5 Chargers hold the last playoff spot and will have to fight off five teams all within a half game. With six games to go, you’re probably comfortable with 11 wins but a 10-7 (or perhaps a few of them) will be on the outside looking in. There is a lot of quality in the AFC and the extra spot will mean a tougher gauntlet for all the teams to fight through. In the NFC, a different story plays out. Yes, there will be a battle for the last spot, as there are no fewer than seven teams within a game of the seven seed, but it’s more of a matter of quality. For most of the season, there have been five good teams in this conference (Cardinals, Packers, Bucs, Cowboys, Rams). The surging Niners are looking to make that six (though the scuffling Cowboys and Rams are headed in the wrong direction), but that seventh seed is looking to be fodder for one of the thoroughbreds at the top of the standings. The seventh seed right now is the 5-6 Washington Football Team, winners of three straight, and boasters of the 20th-best offense and 25th-best defense in the league. WFT moved into the seed by beating the Seahawks, one of the rare teams with a very limited shot at realistic contention. So what do we make of the Seahawks? Injuries have played a factor, and Russell Wilson hasn’t been himself after returning from his broken finger, but this is a flawed team on both sides of the ball. The defense started the season as one of the worst units in the league, though has improved over the past few weeks, but they still have a big problem getting off the field. Seattle’s time of possession (24:09/game) is by far the worst in the league (no other team is under 27:00/game), which leads to a lot of plays on defense and a unit that is fatigued at the end of the game, which makes it less likely to make key stops. Of course, when looking at time of possession, the finger (hopefully not Wilson’s mangled digit) points directly back at the offense, which is the worst in the league on third downs (32.5% success rate) and fourth downs (16.7%). To make matters worse, the Jets own the Seahawks’ first round pick, which would fall at 5th overall if the season were to end today. With Pete Carroll having turned 70 and Russell Wilson hinting this past offseason at wanting out of town if Seattle didn’t make improvements, next year’s Seahawks may look completely different from this year’s version.
APY FOOTBALL POOL UPDATE AND STANDINGS This week’s two top scorers were Jason G and Nigel, who both had 14 points apiece. Unfortunately (for Nigel), this is where the similarities end. Jason used his 14 points to move into a share of third place while Nigel, well, at least he has a nice warm winter to look forward to.
In the overall standings, Jerome still holds the overall lead with 140 points, though he has seen his lead shrink, from three points to one, now narrowly ahead of Sam, who has 139. The aforementioned Jason G shares third place with Paul and Salvo at 138, while Joe L and Will lurk two points behind them in a tie for sixth.
A reminder to everyone to make sure your picks are in before each game starts. Yes, that means you can send the three picks individually if you wish.
Here are the three games:
Bears (-3) at Lions, 12:30 The 3-7 Bears take on the 0-9-1 Lions in what promises to be a thrilling uh football game at Ford Field. The “Fire Nagy” chants are showing up at interesting places and if the Bears happen to lose this one to the winless Lions, those fans may get their wish. The Lions have been downright frisky of late, tying the Steelers and narrowly losing to the Browns, both on the road. A score in the teens seems the most likely scenario so of course that means we should expect (or perhaps hope for) a 34-31 shootout. Predictor: Bears +1 Matt: Bears
Raiders at Cowboys (-7.5), 4:30 The 5-5 Raiders, losers of three straight and five of their last seven, head to Jerry World to take on the 7-3 Cowboys in the other traditional Thanksgiving Day game. The Raiders have struggled on both sides of the ball recently, but especially the offense, as they have failed to top 16 points in any of their games during the skid. The Cowboys will be without WR Amari Cooper (COVID protocol) and CeeDee Lamb (concussion) is a game time decision, as he requires the OK from an independent neurologist to play. Predictor: Cowboys Matt: Cowboys +1
Bills (-6.5) at Saints, 8:20 The nightcap of this fine feast of football festivities features two struggling teams, the 6-4 Bills, losers of three of their last five, take on the 5-5 Saints, who have lost three straight. The Bills were trampled by the Colts, and specifically Jonathan Taylor, as they gave up five touchdowns to the second year back out of Wisconsin in a 41-15 home loss. The Saints have lost three in a row following the ACL injury suffered by Jameis Winston but there has been another injury that is likely as important – Alvin Kamara went down with an injury in the Falcons game and has yet to return, and this will be the case again this week as Kamara has not been cleared to play. Also on the injury report is new/old RB Mark Ingram, who projects to be a game time decision after missing most of the Saints practice time this week. Predictor: Buffalo Matt: Buffalo +1
🚨As Thursday is Thanksgiving Day in the US, we will be treated to the regular feast of football. Make sure you get your picks in on time!🚨
Not sure which game will generate more excitement this week – the early Thanksgiving day game, Bears at Lions, or the Jets at Texans on Sunday. That said, as the bad teams are playing each other, that means fewer picks to be confident about! While there are some awful games this weekend, there are also some very interesting ones: Titans at Patriots Steelers at Bengals Rams at Packers Vikings at Niners (big for the playoff chances of the winner) Browns at Ravens
Time
Date
Away
Home
Winner
Conf
Pick Due
Time
12:30
25-Nov
Chicago
Detroit
25-Nov
12:00 PM
4:30
25-Nov
Las Vegas
Dallas
25-Nov
4:30 PM
8:20
25-Nov
Buffalo
New Orleans
25-Nov
8:20 AM
1:00
28-Nov
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
28-Nov
1:00 PM
1:00
28-Nov
Carolina
Miami
28-Nov
1:00 PM
1:00
28-Nov
Philadelphia
NY Giants
28-Nov
1:00 PM
1:00
28-Nov
Tennessee
New England
28-Nov
1:00 PM
1:00
28-Nov
Atlanta
Jacksonville
28-Nov
1:00 PM
1:00
28-Nov
Tampa Bay
Indianapolis
28-Nov
1:00 PM
1:00
28-Nov
NY Jets
Houston
28-Nov
1:00 PM
4:05
28-Nov
LA Chargers
Denver
28-Nov
1:00 PM
4:25
28-Nov
Minnesota
San Francisco
28-Nov
1:00 PM
4:25
28-Nov
LA Rams
Green Bay
28-Nov
1:00 PM
8:20
28-Nov
Cleveland
Baltimore
28-Nov
1:00 PM
8:20
29-Nov
Seattle
Washington
28-Nov
1:00 PM
Remember to get your picks for the Thursday games before kick-off for each. No late submissions permitted (as always)!
Now that 11 weeks are in the books, the playoff trackers start being displayed and the race to the playoffs is now on. With seven seedings for each conference, more teams will make the playoffs, which should mean that fewer teams should be counted out this early. However, there are still a few teams with little to no shot at the preseason. (Playoff percentages provided by FiveThirtyEight)
Things don’t look good in Seattle
Teams that are likely out, as identified as having a 5% or less chance of making the postseason: Lions 0-9-1 (<0.1%) Jets 2-8 (<0.1%) Jaguars 2-8 (<0.1%) Texans 2-8 (0.1%) Bears 3-7 (1%) Giants 3-7 (2%) Falcons 4-6 (4%) Seahawks 3-7 (4%) Dolphins 4-7 (5%) The bottom four teams may not be mathematically out, but realistically so. 9-8 is likely not enough for an AFC team to make the playoffs, so running the table isn’t an option there, and we know none of those teams are going to go on a big run. By the way, yesterday was the ninth anniversary of this play. Sorry, Jets fans! The Bears gut-punch loss to the Ravens was likely enough to seal the fate of the struggling Bears… and likely HC Matt Nagy as well (may the long Chicago nightmare be finally over??). Justin Fields left the game with a rib injury and with the short week, we could see Andy Dalton starting under centre again. His return did revitalize the offense somewhat, though Chicago’s priority will be to give Fields continued game reps where possible. The Giants are a somewhat non-descript team and Saquon Barkley still looks hobbled by the ankle injury and perhaps is still not 100% back from last year’s ACL injury. The Falcons, an odd inclusion when you consider that they are only 1 game back of the 7th place Saints, have cratered in the past two weeks, losing by a combined score of 68-3. They still have the Jaguars and Lions left on the schedule but likely need to piece together 2 or 3 wins from the rest of the schedule, which looks unlikely at best. Trivia Question: Which QB has won games in Seattle in each of the last two seasons? The answer is not Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, who has yet to win a game at home this season, which continued after Seattle’s crushing 23-13 loss to the Cardinals, who were without Kyler Murray for a third consecutive week. Trivia Answer: Colt McCoy. Since the start of the 2020 season, Colt McCoy has won 3 games – two with the Cardinals this season and once with the Giants in 2020. That win for the Giants? At Lumen Field in Seattle. The Dolphins made it three in a row with a 24-17 win on the road over the Jets and now find themselves at 4-7. The Dolphins have a shot at clawing back to respectability with the Panthers, Giants, and Jets on tap, though the only real scenario for the Dolphins would be to run the table and that seems very unlikely at this point.
The next group consists of three teams that are still in the hunt, and not far off the pace, but have difficult end of season schedules and some issues to answer for if they’re going to make it Raiders 5-5 (9%) Panthers 5-6 (15%) Broncos 5-5 (17%) After starting 3-0 and 5-2, the Raiders are now last in the AFC West at 5-5 and are staring a 7-10 season in the face. With the controversy surrounding former HC Jon Gruden and the vehicular homicide case pending for Henry Ruggs, there have been no shortage of issues for the Raiders, though serious questions will still need to be answered about this team in the offseason. With their heartbreaking loss against Washington this weekend, the Panthers slipped out of a playoff spot and face a difficult final stretch to make their playoff push. There is a lot of excitement surrounding Cam Newton’s return though it is worth remembering that Newton was signed off the couch just 12 days ago and while he did a decent job against his former coach last week, getting back into game speed on a new team with new terminology will take some time. Time the Panthers may not have. The Broncos also started the season off strong at 3-0 but are also looking at a mediocre season (albeit with some big upset wins).
Here comes Jonathan Taylor and the Colts!
The next grouping of teams find themselves in the hunt for the playoffs but not currently in. You’ll see that the odds for some of these teams are actually quite favourable (Colts 👀), even compared to teams that presently hold playoff spots (we’ll get to them later), though that speaks more to the model’s view of their playoff chances. Steelers 5-4-1 (22%) WFT 4-6 (25%) Browns 6-5 (32%) Eagles 5-6 (40%) 49ers 5-5 (49%) Colts 6-5 (72%) After a four-game winning streak inferred that all was well in Steeler Nation, Big Ben got COVID and we saw that, while he is in the very late stages of his career, Roethlisberger is by far the best QB on the Steelers roster. In any event, every team the Steelers face from here on out is at or above .500 and they’ll likely need to win 5 of those 7 to get in. Last year, Washington started the season 2-7 but went on a magical run to finish 7-9 and win the NFC East. This season, WFT started 2-6 but after beating Tampa and Carolina, now find themselves at 4-6 and in the hunt. An end of season run heavy on NFC East teams helped spur their success in 2020 but looms much differently in 2021 as the Cowboys and the resurgent Eagles will provide stern challenges. You’d never guess the Cleveland Browns were 6-5 with the way fans and the media are speaking of the team after they got annihilated by the Patriots in Week 10 and just barely snuck by the Lions in Week 11. However, with back-to-back games against the Ravens, the Browns will need to at least split these games to have a shot at the playoffs in the crowded AFC playoff picture. Like the Steelers, the Browns don’t face another sub .500 team (though the Raiders should be down there by the time they face each other in Week 15). The Eagles have won 3 of their last 4 after a 2-5 start and their commitment to the run game is a big reason why – Philly has run for 236, 176, 216, and 242 yards in their last four weeks, respectively. Their next two weeks will be played at MetLife Stadium against both NY teams so we may be seeing a playoff team when they hit their Week 14 bye. The Niners look like a completely different team on offense with George Kittle in the lineup. They’ve scored 30+ points in three of the last four games – which not-so-coincidentally they won – which they hadn’t done since Week 1 (the last time Kittle was healthy before his return). This run has vaulted the Niners back into the playoff race with a reasonable schedule to end the season. After going into Buffalo and running all over what was the best defense in the league prior to Week 11, the Colts have announced their candidacy as a legitimate playoff contender in the AFC. At 6-5, the Colts have a relatively favourable schedule (Raiders, Texans, Jaguars left), a dominant run game, and a strong defense. As long as Carson Wentz keeps his mistakes to a minimum, this team is a playoff team.
At 6-4, Justin Herbert and the Chargers are on the right path to the playoffs
Next, we’ll look at teams that are on the right side of the postseason race, but not anywhere near certain in their position. In fact, a couple teams on this list appear as under 50% odds to make the playoffs Saints 5-5 (34%) Bengals 6-4 (48%) Vikings 5-5 (59%) Chargers 6-4 (72%) Bills 6-4 (73%) In their Week 8 win over the Bucs, the Saints lost QB Jameis Winston for the season to a torn ACL. While Trevor Siemian stepped in and led the Saints to the win, they’ve lost their last three games since and, despite the Saints presently holding the last playoff spot in the NFC, the playoffs prospects look increasingly bleak in the Big Easy. Their next two games, both on Thursdays, will say a lot about their chances, at home against the Bills and Cowboys. Win one of those, and the momentum could shift back in the right direction. Despite their 6-4 record and 5th place status in the AFC, the model appears uncertain about the Bengals playoff chances. Heading into their Week 10 bye, the Bengals were fading, losing to the Jets, then getting trounced by the otherwise struggling Browns. Their Week 11 win over the Raiders has them back on the right track as they head into a tough final seven weeks, though to their benefit, 5 of their final 7 games are at home, including the next three weeks against the Steelers, Chargers, and Niners. The Vikings have had a full season of close games – only one game has been decided by more than 7 points – and a team with all those close games seems like a .500 team. In the NFC, being .500 (or slightly above with the odd number of games) appears to be enough at this point to get entry into the postseason. The 6-4 Chargers look like a playoff team with their good offense led by second year QB Justin Herbert and do-it-all RB Austin Ekeler. Their schedule also doesn’t look too bad as they get the Broncos (2x), Raiders, Giants, and Texans before the season ends. This team is more likely to be fighting for the AFC West title than in a scrap for the final playoff spot. The Bills look like a contender on paper, but their play of late hasn’t matched up with expectations, especially in light of Jonathan Taylor running all over them this past weekend. The schedule has been soft until last week, but the next five weeks will test their resolve as they get the Pats twice and the Bucs, Panthers, and Saints. This is a team that should be in but for a team that was projected to be a favourite to win the conference just a few weeks ago, these last few weeks have been very disappointing.
Man recovering from 4 day bender, or greatest coach of all time? You decide.
For the last nine teams on this list, the playoffs are a near certainty, barring a collapse. While some of the names are new and statuses have shifted a bit, most of these teams (especially the top 5 in the NFC) have been steadily in this grouping for some time, though the Patriots and Chiefs have elevated their respective games in recent weeks to join the club. Patriots 7-4 (82%) Ravens 7-3 (83%) Rams 7-3 (84%) Chiefs 7-4 (87%) Cowboys 7-3 (90%) Buccaneers 7-3 (95%) Titans 8-3 (98%) Packers 8-3 (>99%) Cardinals 9-2 (>99%)
POOL RESULTS For the fourth week in a row, a major upset shook up the results of the pool, though scores largely went back to their normal double figures. Marcel & Aiden was the top scorer this week, putting up a big 15 points and moving up from the bottom half into a tie for 18th place, with 120 points. At the top of the standings, Jerome continues to hold the lead at 134 points, which is now at three points following an 11 point week. Salvo stays near the top at 131 points, which Paul jumps into third place with 130. Will and Sam stay in the top 5, and are each at 129, five points off the pace.
Name
Total
Jerome
134
Salvo
131
Paul
130
Will
129
Sam
129
Donna P
127
Neil
127
Gary
127
Joe L
127
Alessandro
126
Marcus
125
Jason G
125
Steve
123
Jason R
122
Adam
122
Baldip
122
CSA Red Bulls
121
Marcel & Aiden
120
Darryl
120
Lourdes
120
Molly
120
Justin
120
Team Bracken
119
Denzil
119
Jason H
118
Courtney
118
Des
117
Farhan
116
Terry
116
Jay P
115
Quinn
115
Ronda
114
Tom
112
Joe S
112
Keville
112
Predictor
110
Matt
109
Darren
107
Nigel
102
Donna K
100
David
100
Mark
96
Dwayne
87
Ruby
19
Average
117.7
We will be starting the mini-pool in Week 13, which will mark six weeks remaining in the season.
Another Thursday means more NFL action as the New England Patriots ride their four game winning streak into Atlanta to take on the Falcons. Two interesting notes for this game: the 6-4 Pats are a perfect 4-0 away from Gillette Stadium while the 4-5 Falcons are 1-3 within the confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Patriots are 1/2 game out of the lead in the AFC East and the Falcons are 1/2 game out of the NFC wild card race.
The Patriots have put things together after a 2-4 start and are back to fighting for the AFC East crown after a less-than-stellar 2020 season, but with the Titans on the horizon is this a look-ahead game? Meanwhile, the Falcons had an awful game in Dallas last weekend, so will be looking to rebound. I’m taking the Patriots but could definitely see an upset happening here if the Patriots focus is off as they’re on a high with the win streak and it’s a short week. However, if there’s anyone to trust with the prep, it’s Bill Belichick.
