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NFL DRAFT PREVIEW: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Posted on April 25, 2022 by matt

Coach: Pete Carroll
Offensive Coordinator: Shane Waldron
Defensive Coordinator: Clint Hurtt

Offensive scheme: Waldron was a former assistant with Sean McVay in Los Angeles, and runs a similar style of offense, which is similar to the Mike Shanahan style that McVay, Kyle Shanahan, and the LaFleurs run – heavy pre-snap motion, misdirection, and cross routes designed to confuse the defense and open up space for receivers. In the run game, the team runs an outside zone concept, which is an outside run attack (to TE outside shoulder) in which the offensive line blocks in space between the defensive line and the runner and sideline.

Defensive scheme: For nearly two decades, Pete Carroll’s Cover 3 defense has spawned numerous copycats throughout the league, with many of Carroll’s former defensive coordinators taking the Seattle defense to teams across the league. The Seattle defense is predicated on three deep defenders, generally a free safety and the two outside corners, zone defense in the middle with a slot/nickel corner, a dedicated strong safety, and the inside linebackers, and a four man rush, which can be four down linemen, or an stand-up edge rusher. The short/intermediate defenders need to be able/willing tacklers and able to defend in space.

The Seahawks, as of April 22nd, own eight picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, which include a first, second, and fifth round picks, as part of the haul in the Russell Wilson trade to Denver. The pick in the first replaces their pick, which now sits with the Jets after the Jamal Adams trade
Seahawks Draft Picks:

Round	Overall Pick	Value (JJ)	Value (RH)	Notes
1	9	1350	387	From Denver (Russell Wilson trade)
2	40	500	149	From Denver (Russell Wilson trade)
2	41	490	146
3	72	230	67
4	109	76	32	From Jets (Jamal Adams trade)
5	152	29	12	From Denver (Russell Wilson trade)
5	153	28.6	12
7	229	1	3

Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 2704.6
Rich Hill model: 808

About Draft point models
The first model for assigning a point value to draft picks was designed by Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson during his time with the Dallas Cowboys. The valuations are designed to be used as a benchmark when determining the value of draft picks being traded between teams. The values are not hard coded and teams may have different valuations based on need or organizational philosophy. The Rich Hill model was derived, at least in part, due to a differing philosophy of pick value by Patriots coach Bill Belichick. As you may see in the chart above, the revised model puts an added emphasis on early picks and smooths out the value later on in the draft.

What will the Seahawks do at the draft?
The Russell Wilson trade was the most apparent signal that the Seahawks are headed for a rebuild. With the ninth pick, there has been very little mention of a quarterback, which could mean that this position is being punted to the 2023 draft, or they are going to take a run at getting Baker Mayfield. Either way, the Seahawks now have a number of holes to fill in their lineup with the exodus of talent in the past few seasons.

Roster Analysis
The headliner of the offseason for the Seahawks was the departure of QB Russell Wilson via trade to the Denver Broncos, but another significant move took place this offseason as Bobby Wagner also left the team, as he signed with the defending champion Rams. With the two leaders of the respective units gone, a rebuild looms for the first time in over a decade in Seattle. Other key departures: TE Gerald Everett to the Chargers, CB DJ Reed to the Jets, and essentially all of the offensive line. LT Duane Brown is in discussions with the team for a return to the team, but has not signed to this point. DT Shelby Harris, TE Noah Fant, and QB Drew Lock were part of the return in the Wilson trade, while EDGE Uchenna Nwosu and nickel CBs Justin Coleman and Artie Burns were signed by the club.

Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Drew Lock
Reserves: Geno Smith, Jacob Eason
Expected Draft Action: Depth. The Seahawks have not made any aggressive overtures about selecting a quarterback in the first round, which may be true or a smokescreen but, given how Carroll-era Seahawks love “competition”, they may opt to go with a pick later in the draft. The other option for them would be to trade for an established QB like Baker Mayfield.
Potential fits: Malik Willis, Liberty; Matt Corral, Ole Miss; Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati; Sam Howell, UNC; Carson Strong, Nevada; Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky

Running Back
Starters: Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny
Reserves: DeeJay Dallas, Travis Homer, Josh Johnson, Darwin Thompson
Expected Draft Action: None. Carson is an underrated RB when healthy, but unfortunately, he does miss a lot of time, including the last 13 games of 2021; Penny was signed on a one-year, $5.75 million “prove it” deal, after a sensational last five weeks of the season; Travis Homer is a good third down/change of pace back, while DeeJay Dallas has the potential to be a lead back in the future. There’s plenty of options here, meaning the team is unlikely to use draft capital on a new back.

Wide Receiver
Starters: X Tyler Lockett, Z DK Metcalf, Slot Freddie Swain
Reserves: X Aaron Fuller; Z Cade Johnson; Slot D’Wayne Eskridge, Penny Hart, Matt Cole, Cody Thompson
Expected Draft Action: Depth. The Seahawks are in decent shape at the skill positions, especially at WR with Lockett and Metcalf. Their issue is who is throwing them the ball. The Seahawks could use some depth though, especially outside of the slot.
Potential fit: X Danny Gray, SMU; Kevin Austin, Notre Dame; Tyquan Thornton, Baylor
Z: -Makai Polk, Mississippi State; Alec Pierce, Cincinnati; Erik Ezukanma, Texas A&M

Tight End
Starters: Noah Fant, Will Dissly
Reserves: Colby Parkinson, Tyler Mabry
Expected Draft Action: None. The Seahawks received Noah Fant in the Wilson trade to go along with incumbent Will Dissly. Fant is a productive receiver, hauling in 60+ passes each of the past two seasons for right around 670 yards per season. He has the athleticism to be a move (F) TE while also having the ability to play in-line (Y) and be a factor in the run blocking/pass protection side of the position. He hasn’t progressed quite how the Broncos would’ve liked, but he will still be 24 when the season starts and there is opportunity for him to be a significant part of the plans on offense for the Seahawks this season.

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Stone Forsythe, LG Damien Lewis, C Austin Blythe, RG Gabe Jackson, RT Jake Curhan
Reserves: T Greg Eiland, G Phil Haynes, Pier-Olivier Lestage, C Kyle Fuller, Dakoda Shepley
Expected Draft Action: Starters, up to 4. This offensive line looks unfinished. Forsythe is a sixth rounder for 2021 who has 14 career snaps under his belt on offense. Curhan played 40% of the team’s snaps as an rookie UDFA and predictably struggled. Kyle Fuller got the first taste of starting in his career and really struggled – the Seahawks brought in Austin Blythe, a starter with the Rams before backing up at KC last year, to take over as the starting centre. Gabe Jackson is the established player on this line, but he needs help, a lot of it. The Seahawks are in a position to take two starting tackles in this draft (or beg Duane Brown to come back to take one of those spots). In this piece, I’m predicting a new LT and RT in the draft.
Potential Fits: LT Evan Neal, Alabama; LT/RT Ickey Ekwonu, NC State; LT Charles Cross, Ole Miss; LT Abraham Lucas, Washington
RT Tyler Smith, Tulsa; Max Mitchell, Louisiana; Rasheed Walker, Michigan State; G/T Jamaree Salyer, Georgia; G/T Spencer Buford, UTSA; Vederian Lowe, Illinois

Defensive Line
Starters: DE Shelby Harris, 3T Quinton Jefferson, NT Poona Ford
Reserves: DE LJ Collier, Alex Tchangam; 3T Al Woods, Jarrod Hewitt, Myles Adams; NT Bryan Mone, Niles Scott
Expected Draft Action: Depth. The two-deep on the defensive line is credible with the additions of Shelby Harris and Quinton Jefferson. They’ll expect more of out Collier this season but a 3-4 end with pass rushing capabilities may be sought after in the later rounds.
Potential Fits:
DT:

Pass Rushers
Starter: Uchenna Nwosu
Reserves: Darrell Taylor, Alton Robinson
Expected Draft Action: Depth. While Taylor has shown promise and Nwosu is a good pass rusher, the team will likely look to add depth in the draft. A pick on Day 2 makes a lot of sense here.
Potential Fits: Nik Bonitto, Oklahoma; Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State; DeAngelo Malone, Western Kentucky; Dominique Robinson, Miami (Ohio); Christopher Allen, Alabama; Myjai Sanders, Cincinnati; Tyree Johnson, Texas A&M

Linebackers
Starters: WLB Jordyn Brooks, MLB Cody Barton
Reserves: WLB Jon Rhattigan, Ben Burr-Kirven, Lakiem Williams; MLB Joel Iyiegbuniwe, Tanner Muse, Aaron Donkor
Expected Draft Action: MLB. Cody Barton will likely get the unenviable task of having to replace a franchise institution in Bobby Wagner, but there may also be an opportunity to draft a replacement here.
Potential fit: MLB Channing Tindall, Alabama; Nakobe Dean, Georgia; Damone Clark, LSU (will miss 2022 after spinal fusion surgery); Troy Andersen, Montana STate; Aaron Hansford, Texas A&M

Cornerbacks
Starters: Artie Burns, Sidney Jones, Justin Coleman
Reserves: Tre Brown, John Reid, Ugo Amadi, Mike Jackson
Expected Draft Action: Depth. This unit is a shell of its former self. However, when Sidney Jones plays, he is capable, but last year was his first as a starter, and the first in which he didn’t miss significant time. Artie Burns was terrible in Pittsburgh as a starter but played a lot better in Chicago as a nickel corner. He’ll likely be expected to go back outside in Seattle, as the Seahawks brought Justin Coleman back to the team. Both players are on very team-friendly deals. The team should look at an option as a outside corner proficient in cover 3 at the very least as cover for the oft-injured Jones and Burns, who himself is two years removed from a torn ACL.
Potential fits: Kaiir Elam, Florida; Andrew Booth, Clemson; Kyler Gordon, Washington; Cam Taylor-Britt, Nebraska; Alontae Taylor, Tennessee; Zyon McCollum, Sam Houston State

Safeties
Starters: FS Quandre Diggs, SS Jamal Adams
Reserves: FS Marquise Blair, SS Ryan Neal, Nigel Warrior
Expected Draft Action: None. They could go for a project at free safety as an eventual replacement for Diggs, who is on the wrong side of 30. The segmented roles of the safeties in the Seattle Cover 3 defense work well for each player’s strengths – Adams is poor in coverage but great near the line of scrimmage, while Diggs is an effective free safety playing in centre field. The team has significant needs at other positions and the expectation is that they’ll fill those other needs before they go after a safety. Someone like Taylor-Britt could be drafted to fill the immediate need at corner while potentially learning the FS spot to eventually step in for Diggs when the need arises.

NFL DRAFT PREVIEW: ATLANTA FALCONS

Posted on April 22, 2022April 22, 2022 by matt

Coach: Arthur Smith
Offensive Coordinator: Dave Ragone
Defensive Coordinator: Dean Pees

Offensive scheme: In 2021, Atlanta ran pass plays on 61% of their plays, ranking in the top 10 in pass frequency, even with the absence the team encountered at the wide receiver position during the season. Personnel groupings are hard to decipher in this offense, with TE Kyle Pitts and RB Cordarrelle Patterson playing as wide receivers frequently (Pitts was split out wide on about 73% of his snaps), however the Falcons play a fullback more than most teams, with FB Keith Smith included in 24% of the team’s snaps. The running backs are expected to also be capable receivers and blockers, while the team plays two tight ends frequently. Pitts was paired with another tight end on 40% of the team’s snaps. Up front the team uses a zone blocking scheme (blocking to a space vs blocking a particular defender), mixing outside zone (RB runs to the outside of the blocking tight end, linemen block to outside shoulder of defenders in their zone), inside zone (RB to outside hip of guard, linemen block to open a hole inside), and split zone (line blocks in one direction, left or right; a blocker tracks the opposite way to block the backside defender).

Defensive scheme: Dean Pees runs a base 3-4 defense that is in nickel most of the time. His teams tend to blitz a lot, generally putting six or seven players near the line and choosing which five to send. The defense is characterized by very athletic, if smaller players, including on the defensive line. He tends to play split safeties at the back of the defense, but the safeties should also be willing to blitz, as they like to disguise the defense.

The Falcons, as of April 21st, own nine picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, including the eighth overall pick. The Julio Jones trade last year and Matt Ryan trade this offseason add closure to the previous era, and give the Falcons two extra picks in Day 2 of the draft. They could be the chips needed to be players in the QB trade market.
Falcons Draft Picks:

Round	Overall Pick	Value (JJ)	Value (RH)	Notes
1	8	1400	406
2	43	470	138
2	58	320	93	From Tennessee (Julio Jones trade)
3	74	220	64
3	82	180	54	From Indianapolis (Matt Ryan trade)
4	114	66	29
5	151	29.4	12
6	190	13.8	6	Compensatory Pick
7	213	4.6	4	From Atlanta (Lee Smith trade)

Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 2703.8
Rich Hill model: 806

What will the Falcons do at the draft?
Do they take a QB at 8? If they want Matt Corral, they probably don’t have any teams ahead of them that will mess things up for them. If they want Malik Willis? Well, Carolina has been strongly linked to him, while Detroit has been know to have some level of interest. Atlanta might need to trade up. Is he worth not just an early pick, but dealing trade capital to get there? Unlike other positions, teams don’t generally have a handful of prospects with starting grades, they generally like a guy and move to get him if they need to. Otherwise, the Falcons need pass rushers and wide receivers badly. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them commit five or more of their picks to these two positions.

Roster Analysis
The Falcons are somewhat unique in that their best active wide receivers are a running back and tight end. Kyle Pitts is only nominally a TE, as he plays about 27% of his snaps inline (right next to the tackle), about 40% of this snaps in the slot and the rest out wide. Cordarrelle Patterson was once a wide receiver, but now a running back who also flanks out wide on a semi-regular basis. Patterson is their best possession receiver while Pitts is their best X and slot receiver. They still desperately need a wide receiver, with the (at least) season-long suspension to star WR Calvin Ridley and losing Russell Gage in free agency, but the issue isn’t as glaring as it seems. TE Anthony Firkser was brought in from Tennessee and will almost certainly handle most of the inline TE duties. Buried in all this is the departure of longtime QB Matt Ryan, who was traded to the Colts in the fallout of the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. The Falcons also lost LB Foye Oluokun, WR Russell Gage, TE Hayden Hurst, EDGE Dante Fowler, P Thomas Morstead, and RT Matt Gono. The Falcons signed QB Marcus Mariota, TE Anthony Firkser, EDGE Lorenzo Carter, and raided the Bears for RT Germain Ifedi, RB Damien Williams, RT Elijah Wilkinson, WR Damiere Byrd, and S Teez Tabor.

Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Marcus Mariota
Reserves: Feleipe Franks
Expected Draft Action: Starter. Following the departure of Matty Ice, the Falcons only have two quarterbacks on their roster at the moment, signaling that another QB will be there, and likely before too long. Mariota is a decent QB, but he’s on a short-term deal, and is unlikely to be the long-term answer. With the draft looming, the question is does Atlanta get in early on a quarterback, find a backup later, or explore the Baker Mayfield market?
Potential fits: Matt Corral, Ole Miss; Malik Willis, Liberty; Kenny Pickett, Pitt; Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati; Sam Howell, UNC; Carson Strong, Nevada; Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky

Running Back
Starter: Cordarrelle Patterson
Reserves: Mike Davis, Damien Williams, Qadree Ollison, Caleb Huntley
Expected Draft Action: None. The Falcons added Damien Williams in free agency and now have a troika of running backs catch out of the backfield (or in Patterson’s case, from anywhere), but don’t get a ton of YPC in the run game. I don’t believe they’ll do much in the draft here, but if they do, it’ll be late, and they’ll get someone who’s as good on passing downs as on running downs.

Wide Receiver
Starters: Olamide Zaccheaus, Auden Tate, (realistically Kyle Pitts)
Reserves: Damiere Byrd, Frank Darby, KhaDarel Hodge, Austin Trammell, Chad Hansen, Cordarrelle Patterson
Expected Draft Action: Starter. Tate, Byrd, and Hodge were all picked up in free agency by the Falcons, but these receivers are all depth players. There is still a lack of starter-level talent, even when factoring in Pitts and Patterson. Calvin Ridley was suspended, but the Falcons were actively shopping him before being notified that the league was going to take action on him, so the Falcons should be addressing his replacement either way. Luckily for them, the draft lines up nicely with this positional need. I could say all receivers are a fit (and they would be, given Pitts’ versatility), but here are the fits:
Potential fit: X Garrett Wilson, Ohio State; Jameson Williams, Alabama; Chris Olave, Ohio State; Christian Watson, NDSU; Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama; George Pickens, Georgia; Danny Gray, SMU; Kevin Austin, Notre Dame; Tyquan Thornton, Baylor
Z: Treylon Burks, Arkansas; Drake London, USC; Makai Polk, Mississippi State; Alec Pierce, Cincinnati; Erik Ezukanma
Slot: Jahan Dotson, Penn State; Skyy Moore, Western Michigan; John Metchie, Alabama; Khalil Shakir, Boise State; Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky; Calvin Austin, Memphis; Josh Johnson, Tulsa

Tight End
Starters: Kyle Pitts, Anthony Firkser
Reserves: Parker Hesse, Daniel Helm, Brayden Lenius, John Rayne, Ryan becker
Expected Draft Action: None. They have 1.5 starting calibre tight ends, and five reserves on the roster. This will likely be how the TE room looks in Atlanta heading into training camp.

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Jake Matthews, LG Jalen Mayfield, C Matt Hennessy, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Kaleb McGary
Reserves: T Germain Ifedi, Elijah Wilkinson, Willie Beavers, Rick Leonard; G Rashaad Coward, Ryan Neuzil, Colby Gossett; C Drew Dalman
Expected Draft Action: None. Mayfield had a rough rookie season at LG in 2021, allowing 11 sacks from the interior and committing 9 penalties, both numbers that would be up there with the league’s worst from a tackle, let alone a guard. However, the Falcons have stressed patience as Mayfield is new to the position (he was a RT at Michigan), and was relatively inexperienced entering the pros (he started 15 total games for the Wolverines). The rest of the line is a solid veteran group which hopefully should help Mayfield’s progression.

Defensive Line
Starters: DE Ta’Quon Graham, 3T Marlon Davidson, NT Grady Jarrett
Reserves: DE John Cominsky, 3T Vincent Taylor, Nick Thurman, NT Anthony Rush
Expected Draft Action: Starter at DE or 3T. The Falcons defense is designed to be athletic, though that athleticism comes with a smaller defensive unit. Graham and Davidson are both listed as starters but played only about 30% of the snaps apiece. We’ll likely see a 3-4 DE that can rush the QB and a 3T that might be seen as a bit small for a 3-4 defense or might be a projectionable 3-4 end that they can move inside. Travon Walker may not make it to 8, but would be a perfect fit for this defense on the end.
Potential Fits: DE Travon Walker, Georgia; George Karlaftis, Purdue; Joshua Paschal, Kentucky;
DT: Zach Carter, Florida; Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina; Logan Hall, Houston

Linebackers
Starters: EDGE Lorenzo Carter, WLB Deion Jones, MLB Rashaan Evans, SLB Adetokunbo Ogundeji
Reserves: EDGE Quinton Bell, WLB Dorian Etheridge, MLB Mykal Walker, Rashad Smith, SLB James Vaughters, Jordan Brailford
Expected Draft Action: Pass rusher (or two). The Atlanta Falcons had a meagre pass rush last season, getting to the quarterback a league-low 18 times, the only other team with fewer than 30 sacks was the Eagles (29). Dante Fowler led the team in sacks last season with 4, and left for the Cowboys in free agency. Lorenzo Carter joined from the Giants, but they’ll need much more than one pass rusher to find any success. The Falcons added Rashaan Evans from the Titans to replace the departed Foye Oluokun and to play alongside Deion Jones, so the inside linebackers look to be set. A presence on the line and another rusher to play opposite Carter seems likely, but depth is also needed.
Potential fit: EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon; David Ojabo, Michigan (will miss 2022); Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State; Nik Bonitto, Oklahoma; DeAngelo Malone, Western Kentucky; Christopher Allen, Alabama; Drake Jackson, USC

Cornerbacks
Starters: AJ Terrell, Casey Hayward, Isaiah Oliver
Reserves: Darren Hall, Mike Ford, Richie Grant, Cornell Armstrong, Kendall Sheffield, Avery Williams, Dee Alford, Lafayette Pitts, Corey Ballentine
Expected Draft Action: None. While Casey Hayward will be 33 years old on the opening night of the NFL season, he is still playing at a high level and should be a strong addition to what was already a strong CB unit, playing opposite rising star AJ Terrell. Isaiah Oliver, the nickel/slot corner is another strong player, who they hope can rebound from an injury-plagued 2021.

Safeties
Starters: FS Erik Harris, SS Dean Marlowe
Reserves: FS Luther Kirk, SS Jaylinn Hawkins, Teez Tabor
Expected Draft Action: None. With the departure of Duron Harmon, the starting safety spot alongside incumbent Erik Harris will be competed for by three players, reserve safety Jaylinn Hawkins and two new players, Dean Marlowe from Detroit, and Teez Tabor from Chicago. It is seemingly unlikely that additional players will be brought in to compete for the role.

NFL DRAFT PREVIEW: CAROLINA PANTHERS

Posted on April 21, 2022April 22, 2022 by matt

Coach: Matt Rhule
Offensive Coordinator: Ben McAdoo
Defensive Coordinator: Phil Snow

Offensive scheme: In his time with the Giants, McAdoo ran a West Coast offense style offense. The West Coast offense is advantageous for offenses that have running backs who are eager/able to contribute to the passing game, something the Panthers likely wanted to emphasize as their best player, Christian McCaffrey, is a great runner and receiver. McAdoo’s offense is also relatively straight-forward, which may also reduce complexity and give Sam Darnold (or whomever they choose as QB1) a more streamlined playbook.

Defensive scheme: The Panthers defense is a complex system that shows a lot of different looks and can’t specifically be tied down to any one philosophy. The Panthers play a lot of a college-style 3-3-5 but also show a lot of four-man and even two and five-man fronts. The team also plays with six defensive backs more than any team in the league. DC Phil Snow likes to run exotic packages where confusion reigns – defensive players should all be willing to contribute to the pass rush and also be able to drop into coverage. Positional versatility is big for this defense.

The Panthers, as of April 20th, own six total picks in the 2022 draft, including the sixth overall pick, but no picks between that pick and nearly the end of the fourth round. With Matt Rhule firmly in the hot seat, the Panthers have to get their first round pick right and, ideally, it should be someone that can contribute right away – or they should trade down (if they find a willing partner) and look for volume. As it stands right now, with all their eggs in one basket, and a roster that could use some work, it might be panic time in Carolina.
Panthers Draft Picks:

Round	Overall Pick	Value (JJ)	Value (RH)	Notes
1	6	1600	446
4	137	37.5	18	From Rams via Houston (Draft pick trade in 2021)
5	144	34	15	From Jacksonville (Dan Arnold trade)
5	149	30.2	13
6	199	10.2	5	From Las Vegas (Denzel Perryman trade)
7	242	1	2	From New England via Miami (Greg Little trade)

Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 1712.9
Rich Hill model: 499

What will the Panthers do at the draft?
The Panthers are in a tough spot in this draft with little in the way of top-end value in picks, aside from the number six pick, and their trades (for Sam Darnold and CJ Henderson) have yet to bear any fruit. Do the Panthers roll the dice on the top QB in their draft board (Kenny Pickett? Malik Willis?) or seek to trade down to get more value over the course of the draft? Carolina appears to be rudderless at the moment, and there will almost certainly be some drastic changes if this year unfolds as 2021 did.

Roster Analysis
The Panthers acted like a team with few draft picks this offseason, with much in the way of turnover in their roster. Gone are big names like CB Stephon Gilmore (just signed by Indianapolis) and EDGE Haason Reddick (to Philly) but the Panthers were active in signing free agents: DT Matt Ioannidis from Washington, C Bradley Bozeman from Baltimore, S Xavier Woods from Minnesota and, of course, big name acquisition P Johnny Hekker from the Rams. Carolina is going to need to be content to search the bargain bin of the later rounds and free agency to build depth. There is a bright spot: their skill position depth charts are strong, including DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and Christian McCaffrey at the very top.

Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Sam Darnold
Reserves: PJ Walker
Expected Draft Action: Starter. It’s been long-rumoured that the next Panthers QB will be taken with the sixth pick in the draft, whether it is Kenny Pickett (originally signed a letter of intent with Temple when Rhule was their head coach) or Malik Willis. If they don’t go with a QB at six, they’ll likely use one of the three picks between 137 and 149 to take a backup. This class of quarterbacks is somewhat barren, a bad spot to be in if you’re desperate for a starter immediately.
Potential fits: Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh; Malik Willis, Liberty; Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky; Carson Strong, Nevada

Running Back
Starter: Christian McCaffrey
Reserves: Chuba Hubbard, D’Onta Foreman, Spencer Brown, Darius Bardwell
Expected Draft Action: None. The Panthers were 4-3 last season when Christian McCaffrey played, and 1-9 when he did not. As one of the best running backs in the league at both running and receiving, it’s no surprise that the Panthers’ fortunes are tied very closely to the health of their All-Pro RB. The issue is that McCaffrey has played just 10 games in the past two seasons, leaving a significant hole in the roster that cannot be filled. In a perfect world, they would use one of their mid-round picks to take a high-upside back as protection, but this isn’t a perfect world. Hubbard and Foreman can be effective as reserve backs, to help take a little of the load off McCaffrey.

Wide Receiver
Starters: X WR DJ Moore, Z Robby Anderson, Slot Terrace Marshall
Reserves: X Rashard Higgins, Aaron Parker Z: CJ Saunders; Slot Brandon Zylstra, Shi Smith
Expected Draft Action: Depth at Z. The Panthers have two very good WRs in Moore and Anderson, a young Terrace Marshall who could become a top slot receiver, and a strong reserve WR in Rashard Higgins, who comes over from Cleveland. After that, the depth tapers off, but they don’t need to be too reliant on them, good health permitting. Look for the Panthers to consider some more depth in the draft, as there should still be projectionable starting-calibre talent in the fourth and fifth rounds.
Potential fit: David Bell, Purdue; Makai Polk, Mississippi State; Alec Pierce, Cincinnati; Erik Ezukanma, Texas A&M

Tight End
Starter: Tommy Tremble
Reserves: Ian Thomas, Colin Thompson, Stephen Sullivan
Expected Draft Action: None. Tremble is the better blocker, while Thomas is more of a factor in the passing game, though each is making strides in the disciplines they need improvement in. The Panthers are unlikely to draft a tight end in this draft, given they just signed Thomas to an extension and Tremble was drafted in the third round last year and both have done adequate, if not exceptional, for the Panthers.

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Cam Erving, LG Pat Elflein, C Bradley Bozeman, RG Austin Corbett, RT Taylor Moton
Reserves: T Brady Christensen, Aaron Monteiro, Austen Pleasants; G Michael Jordan (no, not him), Deonte Brown, Dennis Daley, Mike Horton; C Sam Tecklenburg
Expected Draft Action: Starter at LT. This is more aspirational than expected, but one of the blue-chip left tackle prospects would be a perfect choice for Carolina’s overhauled offensive line. This offseason has been a good one in terms of OL talent, as the Panthers were able to sign Bozeman from Baltimore and Corbett from the Rams. The right side of the line looks solid, but the left side looks leaky. Evan Neal or Charles Cross would be high-value selections for the Panthers team, and Erving could move into the swing-tackle role which suits him better.
Potential Fits: LT Evan Neal, Alabama; LT Charles Cross, Ole Miss; LT Abraham Lucas, Washington St; LG Justin Shaffer, Georgia; G Marcus McKethan, UNC; T/G Rasheed Walker, Michigan State; G/RT Spencer Burford, UTSA; RT/G Vederian Lowe, Illinois

Defensive Line
Starters: EDGE Brian Burns, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, 3T Matt Ioannidis, NT Derrick Brown
Reserves: EDGE Marquis Haynes, Azur Kamara, Austin Larkin; DE Darryl Johnson, Jacob Tuioti-Mariner, Joe Jackson; 3T Daviyon Nixon, Phil Hoskins; NT Bravvion Roy, Frank Herron
Expected Draft Action: Depth at EDGE. The Panthers are pretty strong up front, which added some steel with former Washington DT Matt Ioannidis. Haynes, Nixon, and Roy are capable backups though the Panthers may wish to add a situational pass rusher to the unit with the departure of Haason Reddick.
Potential Fits: EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon; Drake Jackson, USC; Christopher Allen, Alabama; Tyreke Smith, Ohio State; Tyree Johnson, Texas A&M

Linebackers
Starters: WLB Shaq Thompson, MLB Damien Wilson, SLB Cory Littleton
Reserves: WLB Kamal Martin, MLB Julian Stanford, SLB Frankie Luvu
Expected Draft Action: Depth. The Panthers overhauled their linebacking corps, with Thompson, Luvu, and special teamer Kamal Martin the only remaining LBs from last season. Littleton joins from Las Vegas and Wilson joins from Jacksonville. There is a need for reserves as Stanford and Martin are almost exclusively special teamers
Potential fit: Aaron Hansford, Texas A&M (MLB/WLB); JoJo Domann, Nebraska (WLB, SS); Zakoby McClain, Auburn (WLB, MLB); Terrel Bernard, Baylor (WLB, FS)

Cornerbacks
Starters: Jaycee Horn, Donte Jackson, CJ Henderson
Reserves: Rashaan Melvin, Keith Taylor, Troy Pride, Chris Westry, Stantley Thomas-Oliver, Madre Harper
Expected Draft Action: None. Donte Jackson leads a strong CB unit which will have Jaycee Horn back in the lineup after suffering a season-ending foot injury in Week 3 last season. In Horn, the Panthers have a potential shutdown corner and paired with Jackson, the Panthers could have one of the league’s best CB pairings in the league. Henderson struggled in Jacksonville, but following his midseason trade to Carolina, there was optimism that he would turn into another strong corner with the Panthers. The Panthers have enough depth at the position to not need to worry about drafting any additional players.

Safeties
Starters: FS Xavier Woods, SS Jeremy Chinn
Reserves: Juston Burris, Myles Hartsfield, Kenny Robinson, Sean Chandler, Sam Franklin
Expected Draft Action: None. The Panthers made their big addition in free agency, signing Xavier Woods from the Vikings. Chinn is one of the league’s top young safeties and is versatile enough to play some linebacker. Burris, Hartsfield, and Robinson will see some action in sub-packages as nickel and/or dime safeties.

NFL DRAFT PREVIEW: NEW YORK GIANTS

Posted on April 20, 2022April 22, 2022 by matt

Coach: Brian Daboll (first season as head coach)
Offensive Coordinator: Mike Kafka
Defensive Coordinator: Wink Martindale

Offensive scheme: New head coach Brian Daboll comes from Buffalo where he ran a high-octane offense led by its superstar quarterback Josh Allen. He won’t have Allen here with the Giants, but he will be looking to use his scheme to unlock the potential of Daniel Jones. Daboll professionally came of age with New England and Alabama, where offenses are designed to use formations and motions to open up holes and neutralize strengths in the opposition defense. Daboll’s offense will be a significant departure from the more conservative offense run by previous offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.

Defensive scheme: Wink Martindale was not retained by the Baltimore Ravens following a 2021 season in which the Ravens finished 24th in total yards against per game and 18th in points allowed. The previous two seasons, the Ravens were the 3rd best, then best defense in the league. Martindale’s offense is predicated first and foremost with getting pressure on the quarterback. This can be from base fronts, disguised blitzes from linebackers or secondary, or all of the above. He’ll also run mostly press man, which will be a departure from the Patrick Graham’s defense, which leaned zone. With that in mind, we may see some growing pains in Year 1 as the defensive philosophy will create some odd fits with existing personnel.

The Giants, as of April 18th, own nine total picks in the 2022 draft, including the fifth and seventh overall picks. New GM Joe Schoen and new head coach Brian Daboll will look to strengthen their foundation with those two early picks.
Giants Draft Picks:

Round	Overall Pick	Value (JJ)	Value (RH)	Notes
1	5	1700	468
1	7	1500	426	From Chicago (Justin Fields trade)
2	36	540	166
3	67	255	75
3	81	185	55	From Miami (draft pick swap in 2021)
4	112	70	30	From Chicago (Justin Fields trade)
5	147	31	14
5	173	20.6	8	From Kansas City via Baltimore (Ben Bederson trade)
6	182	17	7

Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 4318.6
Rich Hill model: 1249

What will the Giants do at the draft?
The Giants are in an enviable situation heading into the 2022 NFL Draft, with the fifth and seventh overall picks. The question is what they do with those picks. The top of the draft is expected to feature pass rushers, offensive linemen, and secondary. The new defense could use a new pass rusher to pair with Azeez Ojulari. The offensive line could always use help, but the left tackle spot is solid, with 2020 fourth overall pick Andrew Thomas becoming the player they hoped for.

Different philosophies on both sides of the ball may result in personnel changes that may not be apparent, especially on defense. The linebacker corps in particular can expect a number of changes – not just due to the change but also as the unit (aside from Ojulari) was a weakness last year.

Roster Analysis
The Giants are a team in transition and while they have some talent on the roster, the depth is non-existent, especially on defense, which is oddly only two deep at most positions. The team is against the cap, so they’ll look to use this draft as a way to fill in the gaps and push ahead with their changes. The biggest change they made in free agency was to sign former Colts RG Mark Glowinski as they made wholesale changes to their offensive line. RT Nate Solder, RG Will Hernandez, C Billy Price, and LG Matt Skura all left the team in free agency and, with only two of the spots filled (Glowinski at RG and Feliciano either at LG or C), there are some openings on the o-line. Depth players were added, including: QB Tyrod Taylor, backup T Matt Gono, edge rusher Jihad Ward, NT Justin Ellis, RB Matt Breida, G Max Garcia.

Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Daniel Jones
Reserves: Tyrod Taylor, Brian Lewerke, Davis Webb
Expected Draft Action: None. The new regime has put the dreaded vote of confidence on incumbent QB Daniel Jones, but Jones is getting an opportunity that he hasn’t had in the past – to run a dynamic offense that accentuates his abilities. The Giants did however, get a good insurance policy in veteran QB Tyrod Taylor.

Running Back
Starter: Saquon Barkley
Reserves: Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell, Antonio Williams, Sandro Platzgummer
Expected Draft Action: Depth. The Giants are likely to take a running back at some point in the draft. While Saquon Barkley has the talent to be a top running back, his last three seasons have been plagued by injuries and inconsistency. 2021 was a poor year following his return from the torn ACL he suffered in 2020 – Barkley was evidently less explosive than he was pre-injury which Giants fans will be hoping was a temporary matter. The depth is virtually non-existent behind him – Breida is capable of 5-7 touches per game, but Brightwell and Williams are completely unproven.
Potential fit: Isiah Pacheco, Rutgers; Trestan Ebner, Baylor; Ty Chandler, UNC; CJ Verdell, Oregon

Wide Receiver
Starters: X WR Kenny Golladay, Z WR Kadarius Toney, Slot WR Sterling Shepard
Reserves: X Darius Slayton; Z: Collin Johnson, David Sills, Robert Foster, Travis Toivonen; Slot Richie James, CJ Board, Alex Bachman, Austin Proehl
Expected Draft Action: None. Golladay, Slayton, Toney, and Shepard represents a strong foursome in the Giants WR room. However, the issue with each of these receivers is their ability to stay on the field – only Golladay started more than half the team’s games (and he also missed three games), but if even three of the four can maintain some level of health, this is a sneaky-good unit. Collin Johnson is a big target who has the potential to grow into a starter as a possession receiver.

Tight End
Starter: Ricky Seals-Jones
Reserves: Jake Hausmann, Chris Myarick, Rysen John
Expected Draft Action: Depth. With the departures of Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph in the offseason, the Giants are extremely thin at tight end. They were able to sign Ricky Seals-Jones from Washington and while he is a perfectly capable TE, the other players on the roster are specifically blockers who should not be trusted at all in the passing game.
Potential fit:

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Andrew Thomas, LG Max Garcia, C Jon Feliciano, RG Mark Glowinski, RT Matt Peart
Reserves: T Devery Hamilton, Matt Gono, Korey Cunningham, Roy Mbaeteka; G Shane Lemieux, Wes Martin, Ben Brederson, Jamil Douglas; C Nick Gates
Expected Draft Action: Starters: LG, C, RT. The Giants completely purged their offensive line this offseason and will need at least two players who can reasonably start if not Week 1, then as the season progresses. Thomas and Glowinski are the only obvious starters, though Garcia and Feliciano both have experience at LG and C, while Peart and Gono are reserves but as of now are expected to compete for the RT spot if nothing happens on draft day. At the very least, expect a RT to be taken and watch for an interior lineman to go on Day 2 or 3.
Potential Fits: C Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa; G Kenyon Green, Texas A&M; G/C Zion Johnson; RT Tyler Smith, Tulsa; G Cole Strange, Chattanooga; G Logan Bruss, Wisconsin; G Luke Goedeke, Central Michigan; C Luke Fortner, Kentucky; C Chasen Hines, LSU; RT Max Mitchell, Louisiana; RT/G Jamaree Salyer, Georgia; T/G Rasheed Walker, Michigan State; G/RT Spencer Burford, UTSA; RT/G Vederian Lowe, Illinois

Defensive Line
Starters: DE Leonard Williams, 3T Dexter Lawrence, NT Justin Ellis
Reserves: DE Jihad Ward; 3T Raymond Johnson; NT David Moa
Expected Draft Action: NT and depth. This may be a function of the Giants needing to work through their cap issues, but if relying on the team’s depth charts, this team is unfinished, especially here on the defensive line, where only six players are under contract. Starting DE and DT are sorted with Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence, while Jihad Ward is a solid rotational player. Justin Ellis is nominally listed as the starting nose, but he’s more of a rotational player, they’ll need to focus on getting a big man for the middle of their defensive front.
Potential Fits: DT: Eyoima Uwazurike, Iowa State (5T/DT); Neil Farrell, LSU (NT); DJ Davidson, Arizona State (NT); Travis Jones, UCONN (NT); John Ridgeway, Arkansas (NT, 3T, 5T); Jayden Peavy, Texas A&M (3T, NT)

Edge Rushers
Starter: Azeez Ojulari
Reserves: Elerson Smith, Niko Lalos
Expected Draft Action: Depth. Whether they get a specialized pass rusher or a Sam with pass rushing capabilities, the Giants will be looking at someone who can get to the quarterback. We’ll look at the SLBs in the next grouping but the specialized pass rushers will be in demand here as well.
Potential Fits: Kayvon Thibodeau, Oregon; David Ojabo, Michigan (will miss 2022 season); Boye Mafe, Minnesota; Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State; Nik Bonitto, Oklahoma; Sam Williams, Ole Miss; DeAngelo Malone, Western Kentucky; Domonique Robinson, Miami (OH); Drake London, USC

Linebackers
Starters: WLB Tae Crowder, MLB Blake Martinez, SLB Quincy Roche
Reserves: WLB Carter Coughlin, Justin Hilliard; MLB Cam Brown, TJ Brunson, Omari Cobb; SLB Trent Harris, Oshane Ximines
Expected Draft Action: WLB, SLB. The Giants linebacker unit was hampered by the torn ACL suffered by MLB Blake Martinez in Week 3, but with him coming back, the focus should be on upgrading the other positions through the draft. If they are willing to use a top 10 pick, Devin Lloyd would be a great fit for this defense, as he has enough versatility to play the SAM linebacker and be utilized as a pass rusher when needed. Any player selected will need to be proficient in man defense and may be asked to go after the QB.
Potential Fits: SLB Lloyd, Utah; Channing Tindall, Georgia; Chad Muma, Wyoming; Leo Chenal, Wisconsin
WLB Christian Harris, Alabama; Zakoby McClain, Auburn; Brian Asamoah, Oklahoma; Terrell Bernard, Baylor

Cornerbacks
Starters: James Bradberry (requested a trade), Adoree’ Jackson, Darnay Holmes
Reserves: Jarren Williams, Rodarius Williams, Aaron Robinson
Expected Draft Action: Starter. The Giants are honouring Bradberry’s request for a trade and, one would imagine, a deal would get done before the draft, which could bring additional assets to the team. As such, the Giants will look to draft his replacement, landing them squarely in the mix for Gardner or Stingley, the two top corners in the draft. Either corner would work well with Wink Martindale’s defense, as they each specialize in press-man defense. If they wish to wait for a corner, McDuffie may be available in round 2 and McCreary might be there in round 3.
Potential Fit: Ahmad Sauce Garnder, Cincinnati; Derek Stingley Jr, LSU; Trent McDuffie, Washington; Kyler Gordon, Washington; Roger McCreary, Auburn; Joshua Williams, Fayetteville St (developmental); Alontae Taylor, Tennessee; Jalyn Armour-Davis, Alabama; Tariq Woolen, UTSA (developmental)

Safeties
Starters: FS Xavier McKinney, SS Julian Love
Reserves: None listed
Expected Draft Action: Depth. The Giants have two safeties listed in their depth chart, one for each position. They’ll be looking at safeties who can play in man or zone – a strong safety should be able to match up with tight ends in space.
Potential Fits: Dax Hill, Michigan (FS/NCB); Percy Butler, Louisiana (FS); Delarrin Turner-Yell, Oklahoma (both); Verone McKinley, Oregon (FS/NCB); Dane Belton, Iowa (SS); Smoke Monday, Auburn (SS); Nick Cross, Maryland (SS); Jaquan Brisker, Penn State (SS); Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame (FS)

NFL DRAFT PREVIEW: NEW YORK JETS

Posted on April 16, 2022 by matt

Coach: Robert Saleh (second season, 4-13 in 2021)
Offensive Coordinator: Mike LaFleur
Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich

Offensive scheme: West Coast offense. As a disciple of the Shanahans, LaFleur runs a variation of the West Coast offense which relies on short and intermediate passing routes and using the running backs and tight ends in the passing game.

Defensive scheme: The Jets run Saleh’s version of the Seattle Cover-3 defense, which was popularized by the Seahawks, Pete Carroll, and the Legion of Boom, then was adopted throughout the league, including in San Francisco when Saleh was their defensive coordinator. The Seattle defense features a four-man front (though pass rushers may stand up on obvious passing downs), and a three-man deep zone, which usually features the outside corners and free safety each taking a 1/3 of the field deep, while the linebackers, strong safety, and either nickel corner or safety patrol the short and intermediate parts of the field. As such, the safeties tend to be strongly segmented between strong and free (think Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas from the Legion of Boom), and the corners and linebackers should be strong tacklers and proficient in zone concepts.

The Jets, as of April 14th, own nine total picks in the 2022 draft, with two in the top 10, four in the top 38, and all of them within the first five rounds. The Adams and Darnold trades didn’t pay off the way the Seahawks and Panthers (respectively) would’ve liked, putting the Jets in position to move their rebuild project along at speed.
Jets Draft Picks:

Round	Overall Pick	Value (JJ)	Value (RH)	Notes
1	4	1800	491
1	10	1300	369	From Seattle (Jamal Adams trade)
2	35	550	170
2	38	520	157	From Carolina (Sam Darnold trade)
3	69	245	71
4	111	72	31	From Carolina (Sam Darnold trade)
4	117	60	27	From Minnesota (Chris Herndon trade)
5	146	31.4	14
5	163	24.6	9	From Pittsburgh (Avery Williamson trade)

Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 4603
Rich Hill model: 1339

What will the Jets do at the draft?
The Jets have the fourth and tenth overall picks, and nine total picks throughout the draft, all within the first five rounds. The Jets are starting to build a foundation, and have augmented the foundation with some decent free agent signings, but the question is, do they have enough to make the leap into serious contention? Not yet, but there should be optimism in the green part of New York for the first time in a long time.

There are still some holes in the roster: right tackle, any receiver type other than slot, secondary (despite decent under-the-radar signings DJ Reed and Jordan Whitehead) needs depth, the linebacker corps are in need of a talent infusion, and the line could use some depth, even with Carl Lawson coming back from injury. There are some decent options in the first round that jump out the page, but also others that will be there in the middle rounds. Which direction do the Jets go?

Roster Analysis
The Jets made a splash in free agency this year – not a Jaguars-level splash, but enough of one – and made moves to shore up some key weaknesses. They brought in RG Laken Tomlinson from the Niners, tight ends CJ Uzomah (from Cincinnati) and Tyler Conklin (from Minnesota), safety Jordan Whitehead from Tampa Bay, and underrated CB DJ Reed from Seattle. On the other end, they lost safety Marcus Maye to the Saints, slot receiver Jamison Crowder to the Bills (what are they going to do in the slot now with only 6 slot receivers in the roster?), right tackle Morgan Moses went to Baltimore, and nose tackle Foley Fatukasi went to the Jaguars.

Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Zach Wilson
Reserves: Joe Flacco, Mike White
Expected Draft Action: None. Zach Wilson is the future of the New York Jets, Joe Flacco is the old head/emeritus/extra coach at the end of his career, and Mike White is the capable backup in case Wilson suffers a long-term injury. At the moment, the QB room is settled.

Running Back
Starter: Michael Carter, Tevin Coleman
Reserves: Ty Johnson, La’Mical Perine, Austin Walter
Expected Draft Action: Depth or none. Carter and Coleman were emerging as the main 1-2 options in the Jets backfield as the season came to a close and, barring any additions, should remain in those positions as the season approaches. As with the Shanahans, LaFleur and the Jets are unlikely to stop looking for options in the run game and will potentially seek to unearth a diamond in the rough either late in the draft (which would have to be round five at this point) or in the UDFA market.
Potential fit: Isiah Pacheco, Rutgers; Trestan Ebner, Baylor; Ty Chandler, UNC; CJ Verdell, Oregon

Wide Receiver
Starters: X WR Corey Davis, Z WR Denzel Mims, Y WR Elijah Moore
Reserves: X Tarik Black; Z DJ Montgomery; Y Braxton Berrios, Jeff Smith, Lawrence Cager, Rodney Adams
Expected Draft Action: Starter, Depth. What the Jets don’t need is another slot receiver. They’re all set in the slot, with second year receiver Elijah Moore and Braxton Berrios, along with a plethora of backup/special teams guys. The Jets do need some size and speed on the perimeter and the draft will provide plenty of opportunities for upgrades. USC WR Drake London fits the possession receiver need almost perfectly – it’s just a question as to whether pick 10 is too soon to take him.
Potential Fit: Z Treylon Burks, Arkansas; London; George Pickens, Georgia; Alec Pierce, Cincinnati; Makai Polk, Mississippi State; Erik Ezukanma, Texas Tech; Romeo Doubs, Nevada; Tre Turner, Virginia Tech
Y: Jameson Williams, Alabama (injury risk); Christian Watson, NDSU; Kevin Austin, Notre Dame; Danny Gray, SMU

Tight End
Starter: CJ Uzomah, Tyler Conklin
Reserves: Trevon Wesco, Kenny Yeboah, Brandon Dillon
Expected Draft Action: None. The Jets have long sought someone (anyone!) that could play TE for them and went out and got two players to fill the role: CJ Uzomah from Cincinnati and Tyler Conklin from Minnesota, dishing out $25 million in guarantees on three-year deals to each of the veterans. Uzomah and Conklin are both established receivers who are also willing run and pass blockers. The cupboard is bare behind them, but with teams usually carrying only three TEs, and splashing on the position in free agency, it would be very surprising to see them seek more help at the position via the draft.

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Mekhi Becton, LG Alijah Vera-Tucker, C Connor McGovern, RG Laken Tomlinson, RT George Fant
Reserves: T Conor McDermott, Greg Senat, Chuma Edoga, Parker Ferguson; G Greg Van Roten, Dru Samia, Isaiah Williams; C Dan Feeney, Ross Pierschbacher
Expected Draft Action: Tackle depth. After giving a 3-year, $40 million contract to RG Laken Tomlinson, the Jets are more or less set on the interior of the offensive line, with Vera-Tucker, McGovern, and Tomlinson manning the G and C spots. The bizarre circumstances surrounding the knee injury (and subsequent setbacks) of LT Mekhi Becton have pundits wondering whether the Jets will go with a new left tackle with one of their top 10 picks. This appears to be unlikely, as the Jets appear to be happy with Fant on the left side (as he played there last season, to some credit). However, the Jets may opt to take a tackle in the draft – but either a RT or swing tackle.
Potential Fits: RT/G Rasheed Walker, Michigan State; G/RT Spencer Burford, UTSA; RT/G Vederian Lowe, Illinois

Defensive Line
Starters: EDGE Carl Lawson, DE John Franklin-Myers, 3T Quinnen Williams, NT Sheldon Rankins
Reserves: EDGE Jacob Martin, Bradlee Anae; DE Bryce Huff, Jabari Zuniga, Tim Ward; 3T Nathan Shepherd, Solomon Thomas; NT Tanzel Smart, Jonathan Marshall
Expected Draft Action: Depth, potential starter at NT. The Jets lost some strength in their spine when Foley Fatukasi signed with the Jaguars, but still have one of the better defensive tackles in Quinnen Williams, and a very underrated strong side DE in John Franklin-Myers. EDGE rusher Carl Lawson should also return from injury to further bolster this unit. Sheldon Rankins is on the downhill side of his career progression and may see benefit in optimizing his playing time, while the rotation overall could also stand to be strengthened, especially at pass rusher.
Potential Fits: Defensive End: Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, Jermaine Johnson, Florida State (pass rusher and 4-3 run stopping DE); Travon Walker, Georgia (run stuffing end with edge rush ceiling); Dominique Robinson (high ceiling 4-3 pass rush DE); George Karlaftis, Purdue (43 EDGE)
Defensive Tackle: Eyoima Uwazurike, Iowa State (5T/3T/DT); Neil Farrell, LSU (NT); DJ Davidson, Arizona State (NT); Travis Jones, UCONN (NT);

Linebackers
Starters: MLB CJ Mosley, WLB Quincy Williams
Reserves: MLB Del’Shawn Phillips, Hamsah Nasirilideen; WLB Jamien Sherwood, Hamilcar Rashed
Expected Draft Action: Starter(s). At 10, the Jets will have to make a decision: go with possibly the draft’s best wide receiver, or go with its best linebacker. They could take Garrett Wilson or Drake London OR they can take Devin Lloyd or Nakobe Dean. All four of these players fills a significant need and will make the Jets a better team perhaps as early as Week 1.
Potential Fits: MLB Lloyd, Utah; Dean, Georgia; Channing Tindall, Georgia; Aaron Hansford, Texas A&M (project)
WLB Christian Harris, Alabama; Zakoby McClain, Auburn; Brian Asamoah, Oklahoma (project); JoJo Domann, Nebraska;

Cornerbacks
Starters: DJ Reed, Bryce Hall, Michael Carter II
Reserves: Brandin Echols, Jason Pinnock, Javelin Guidry, Isaiah Dunn, Rachad Wildgoose, Justin Hardee
Expected Draft Action: Starter, Depth. This is a unit that is hard to decipher. The Jets CB unit is filled with unheralded players learning on the fly. Bryce Hall looked like a fish out of water in his rookie season, but improved in Year 2. Michael Carter had an up-and-down rookie season. Some of the others look solidified as reserves. DJ Reed, the free agent acquisition from Seattle, fits the defense and played very well for the Seahawks in 2022. Do they try to find their Richard Sherman in this draft? Seattle gave Sherman some leeway but this defense is largely about the outside corners keeping to their side of the field and extending coverage deep as needed. While the corners may start in press they’ll need to be able to keep the discipline in zone. This probably means Sauce Gardner and Stingley are not fits at 4 or 10, but there are some high ceiling corners that would thrive in this defense.
Potential Fit: Andrew Booth, Clemson; Kyler Gordon, Washington; Marcus Jones, Houston; Cam Taylor-Britt, Nebraska; Damarri Mathis, Pitt; Vincent Gray, Michigan; Montaric Brown, Arkansas; Akayleb Evans, Mizzou.

Safeties
Starters: FS Ashtyn Davis, SS Jordan Whitehead
Reserves: FS Elijah Riley, Kai Nacua, Jovante Moffatt; SS Lamarcus Joyner, Will Parks, Zane Lewis
Expected Draft Action: Depth. Marcus Maye’s departure naturally hurts the safeties but the Jets seem to believe that Davis can fit at least some of the void on the free side. Maye was not really a fit on the strong side, though he was effective there, he’s best as a free safety. With the signing of Jordan Whitehead from Tampa, Lamarcus Joyner’s fit should be interesting. He has experience as a slot corner (which he might do here too), and he could also be a weakside linebacker on passing downs. In a perfect world, all three of Davis, Whitehead, and Joyner see the field together a bunch, but the unit beyond them thins out quickly. Depth options at safety seem like the best bet in this draft (not to mention that some strong safeties in college may be WLBs in this defense).
Potential Fits: Dax Hill (FS/NCB); Percy Butler, Louisiana (FS); Delarrin Turner-Yell, Oklahoma (both); Verone McKinley (FS/NCB); Dane Belton (SS)

NFL DRAFT PREVIEW: HOUSTON TEXANS

Posted on April 14, 2022April 22, 2022 by matt

Coach: Lovie Smith (first season with Texans, 89-87 lifetime record
Offensive Coordinator: Pep Hamilton
Defensive Coordinator: Lovie Smith/Miles Smith

Offensive scheme: Pep Hamilton takes over duties as offensive coordinator, after serving as the team’s quarterbacks coach in 2021. Hamilton, best known as a quarterback whisperer for his ability to accelerate the learning curve for Andrew Luck, Justin Herbert, and Davis Mills (among others), was also the offensive coordinator for the Colts for three seasons and for Stanford prior to that. Hamilton’s offense will be much more dynamic than the one seen in 2021. Hamilton calls his offense the No Coast Offense, as he eschews dogmatic adherence to any one particular scheme, and will typically adjust to personnel. In his time with the Colts, they did run elements of the West Coast offense with a good measure of success.

Defensive scheme: Lovie Smith was the Texans defensive coordinator in 2021 and will continue with those duties and call plays in 2022. His son, Miles, the linebackers coach, is expected to have an increased portfolio as well and may be more involved in that aspect of the game this year. Lovie Smith runs at Tampa 2 defense, which is almost exclusively zone, and requires its outside linebackers and corners to be strong tacklers as they will have increased responsibilities in stopping the run.

The Texans, as of April 12th, have eleven draft picks, including two of the top 13 picks, five of the top 80, seven of the first 108 picks, and three sixth rounders.
Texans Draft Picks:

Round	Overall Pick	Value (JJ)	Value (RH)	Notes
1	3	2200	514
1	13	1150	336	From Cleveland (Deshaun Watson trade)
2	37	530	162
3	68	250	73
3	80	190	56	From New Orleans (Bradley Roby trade)
4	107	80	33	From Cleveland (Deshaun Watson trade)
4	108	78	32
6	183	16.6	7
6	205	7.8	4	From Green Bay (Randall Cobb trade)
6	207	7	4	From San Francisco via NY Jets (Shaq Lawson trade)
7	245	1	2	From Dallas (Eli Ankou trade)

Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 4510.4
Rich Hill model: 1223

What Will the Texans do at the draft?
The Texans have the third and thirteenth pick, and eleven total picks throughout the draft, and have finally found closure to the Deshaun Watson saga, following his trade to the Browns. The next step now, is to start the full rebuild in earnest. As this draft is quite deep, but lacking in top-end talent, the Texans are well positioned to use their plethora of picks to build a solid foundation, though it will be some time before they are expected to be competitive.

With the way the Texans roster is positioned, the team can pretty much go in any direction and take the best player available on their board. With multiple picks in many rounds, including the first, the team can also afford some high-risk, high-reward selections to improve a talent-thin roster.

Roster Analysis
Outside the Deshaun Watson trade, the Texans mostly flew under the radar, letting S Justin Reid, backup QB Tyrod Taylor, and EDGE Jacob Martin, among others, leave, while working the margins in free agency, loading up on reserves and fringe starters, such as RG AJ Cann, RB Marlon Mack, and LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin.

Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Davis Mills
Reserves: Jeff Driskel, Kyle Allen.
Expected Draft Action: None or Depth. The Texans liked what they saw out of Davis Mills in the second half of 2021, and should be expected to hand him the keys to the offense in 2022 to see what he is capable of. If Mills succeeds, the team will have their QB of the future, if not, there is a strong QB class coming in 2023 and with two firsts already, the Texans would be well-positioned to take a blue-chipper next season.

Running Back
Starters: Marlon Mack, Rex Burkhead
Reserves: Dare Ogunbowale, Royce Freeman, Scottie Phillips, Darius Anderson
Expected Draft Action: Starter. As in 2021, the Texans have a number of discarded, low ceiling backs who can all add value to the passing game but are not bell-cow backs by any definition. Running backs would need to either be strong or be moldable in pass protection, as offense will be aggressive and throw on early downs.
Potential Fits: Pierre Strong, South Dakota State; Breece Hall, Iowa State; Dameon Pierce, Florida; Kyren Williams, Notre Dame

Wide Receiver
Starters: X WR Brandin Cooks, Z WR Nico Collins, Y WR Chris Moore
Reserves: X Phillip Dorsett, Z Chris Conley, Y DaeSean Hamilton; Jalen Camp, Damon Hazelton, Davion Davis
Expected Draft Action: Starter, Depth. In a draft filled with what could potentially be solid starters at the wideout position, the Texans can stand to upgrade at the Z and slot positions. Cooks is under contract until 2024, which is nearly fully guaranteed, so that position is fine for a while. They could still stand to go for depth at X though if the opportunity arises. There are much more pressing needs but the run on the top wideouts would start somewhere around the Cleveland pick they own at 13.
Potential Fit: Z Treylon Burks, Arkansas; Drake London, USC; George Pickens, Georgia; Alec Pierce, Cincinnati; Makai Polk, Mississippi State; Erik Ezukanma, Texas Tech; Romeo Doubs, Nevada; Tre Turner, Virginia Tech
Slot: Skyy Moore, Western Michigan; Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama; John Metchie, Alabama; Khalil Shakir, Boise State; Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky; Calvin Austin, Memphis

Tight End
Starter: Pharaoh Brown
Reserves: Brevin Jordan, Antony Auclair
Expected Draft Action: None. Brown is more of a blocking TE while Jordan, the rookie from Texas, is more of a Move/Y TE who can be part of the pass game but is a project as a blocker. It appears unlikely that the Texans will take a TE in the draft, as they will likely hope for Jordan to add more to his arsenal for his second season.

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Laremy Tunsil, LG Justin McCray, C Justin Britt, RG AJ Cann, RT Tytus Howard
Reserves: T Cedric Ogbuehi, Charlie Heck, Jordan Steckler, Carson Green; G Max Scharping, Sam Cooper; C Jimmy Morrissey, Scott Quessenberry
Expected Draft Action: Starters. With the exception of Tunsil, anyone on the offensive line could be upgraded, especially in the interior of the offensive line, where multiple picks may be made. Some pundits believe they may take a tackle at 3, though this would be unlikely, unless they are looking to shop Tunsil. The Texans have previously run a zone blocking scheme, which generally requires more agility and athleticism than the man-blocking counterpart. For the purposes of fit, the assumption is that Pep Hamilton will not change this scheme. If the Texans go with bigger, road-grader types, this signals a change in philosophy.
Potential Fits: G/C Cole Strange, Chattanooga; G Logan Bruss, Wisconsin; C Luke Fortner, Kentucky; C Cam Jurgens, Nebraska; RT/G Rasheed Walker, Michigan State; G Dylan Parham, Memphis; G/RT Spencer Burford, UTSA; RT/G Vederian Lowe, Illinois; Zach Thomas, SDSU;

Defensive Line
Starters: DE Jonathan Greenard (EDGE), Ogbonnia Okoronkwo; DT/3T Maliek Collins; NT Roy Lopez
Reserves: DE Jordan Jenkins (EDGE), Derek Rivers, Demone Harris, Ron’Dell Carter; 3T Kingsley Keke; 3T/NT Ross Blacklock; NT Michael Dwumfour
Expected Draft Action: Depth. One of the rare position groups that isn’t in desperate need of upgrades. Greenard quietly had a strong second season in Houston, registering 8 sacks and Okoronkwo, joining from the Rams, will help provide depth. Collins and Lopez, while not great, are adequate. Kingsley Keke, a 3-4 end in Green Bay, will kick inside in Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2. At the top of the draft, Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux are both schematic fits, otherwise, target depth players here, as the cupboard is somewhat bare outside the starters.
Potential Fits: Defensive End: Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, Jermaine Johnson, Florida State (pass rusher and 4-3 run stopping DE); Travon Walker, Georgia (run stuffing end with edge rush ceiling); Joshua Paschal, Kentucky; Dominique Robinson (high ceiling 4-3 pass rush DE); Kingsley Enagbere (run stopping 4-3 DE); Cameron Thomas (run stopping 4-3 DE); Zach Carter (DE with projection to a 3T in 4-3 defense)
Defensive Tackle: Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma (3T); Eyoima Uwazurike, Iowa State (5T/3T/DT); Kalia Davis, UCF (3T); Neil Farrell, LSU (NT); DJ Davidson, Arizona State (NT); Haskell Garrett, Ohio State (3T)

Linebackers
Starters: MLB Christian Kirksey, SLB Kamu Grugier-Hill, WLB Jalen Reeves-Maybin
Reserves: MLB Neville Hewitt, Tae Davis; SLB Kevin Pierre-Louis; WLB Garret Wallow, Blake Cashman
Expected Draft Action: Depth. This is a spot for developmental prospects, as the current starters are closer to fringe starters than stars. Linebackers in the Tampa 2 should be best suited to play in coverage and you may see college safeties converted for the purpose, especially in the middle linebacker spot.
Potential Fits: MLB Channing Tindall, Georgia; Aaron Hansford, Texas A&M (project); JoJo Domann, Nebraska;
OLB Zakoby McClain, Auburn; Brian Asamoah, Oklahoma (project)

Cornerbacks
Starters: Desmond King, Lonnie Johnson, Tavierre Thomas (slot)
Reserves: Tremon Smith, Jimmy Moreland, MJ Stewart, Isaac Yiadom, Reggie Robinson.
Expected Draft Action: Starter. In the Tampa 2 defense, the ability to play zone and be an active and avid tackler are necessary traits, “business decisions” are not welcome. Booth and Gordon are early round examples of players who fit the description, though Houston may be able to pluck a starter in the third or fourth rounds (Taylor-Britt or Mathis).
Potential Fit: Andrew Booth, Clemson; Kyler Gordon, Washington; Marcus Jones, Houston; Cam Taylor-Britt, Nebraska; Damarri Mathis, Pitt; Vincent Gray, Michigan; Montaric Brown, Arkansas; Akayleb Evans, Mizzou.

Safeties
Starters: Terrence Brooks, Eric Murray
Reserves: Jonathan Owens, Grayland Arnold
Expected Draft Action: Starter or projectionable reserve. In the Tampa 2, safeties generally both need to be strong in zone coverage, vs proficiency in the box. Murray and Brooks are adequate safeties but Houston could find competition for them in the middle rounds, with Kerby Joseph being an example.
Potential Fits: Dax Hill, Michigan; JT Woods, Baylor; Kerby Joseph, Illinois; Delarrin Turner-Yell, Oklahoma; Percy Butler, Louisiana

NFL DRAFT PREVIEW: DETROIT LIONS

Posted on April 13, 2022April 22, 2022 by matt

Coach: Dan Campbell (second season, 3-13-1 in 2021)
Offensive Coordinator: Ben Johnson
Defensive Coordinator: Aaron Glenn

Offensive scheme: Once Dan Campbell started calling the plays in the Lions offense, the team put a lot more emphasis on an old-school pro-style offense, which leans towards running the ball on early downs more often than passing. This trend is likely to continue this year, as Ben Johnson has never been a coordinator or play-caller at any level in his coaching career.

Defensive scheme: With the hiring of Campbell, the Lions went from a Base 4-3 defense to a 3-4 look last season. Following the season, Campbell told reporters that the Lions would revert back to four-down linemen, with some three-down fronts. In the secondary, the Lions use both man and zone, but appear to gravitate towards a two-high zone defense.

The Lions, as of April 12th, hold nine draft picks, including the second overall selection. The Lions hold 3 of the draft’s top 34 picks, and five of the first 97. The Lions received three compensatory picks, one each in rounds three, five, and six, after losing Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Jamal Agnew, Jarrad Davis, and Matt Prater in the 2021 free agency period.
Lions Draft Picks:

Round	Overall Pick	Value (JJ)	Value (RH)	Notes
1	2	2600	717
1	32	590	184	From Rams (Matthew Stafford trade)
2	34	560	175
3	66	260	76
3	97	112	38	Compensatory Pick
5	177	19	7	Compensatory Pick
6	181	17.4	7
6	217	3	3	Compensatory Pick
7	234	1	2	From Cleveland (2021 Draft pick trade)

Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 4162.4
Rich Hill model: 1209

What Will the Lions do at the draft?
With the second overall pick, and three in the first 34, the Lions have a strong opportunity to add talent to their roster.

What to do with the second pick:
1. Take an edge rusher, Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson (if available), Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, or Georgia edge rusher Travon Walker.
2. Take Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton
3. Take a QB, potentially Liberty QB Malik Willis.

In an ideal world for the Lions, the Jaguars opt to take an offensive lineman at 1 or otherwise opt against going for Hutchinson. Hutchinson is a perfect a fit as you can get with the Lions Base 4-3 and can step in from Day 1. Thibodeaux would also be a fine consolation prize, as he plays a similar style to Hutchinson and has a higher ceiling due to his athleticism; however, questions have been raised about Thibodeaux’s motor, which may cause his stock to drop out of the top five picks.
Either Hamilton or Willis would be reaches at 2, but both could satisfy needs. Hamilton is a 6’4″ 220 lbs hybrid who would excel at free safety but could play anywhere from slot corner to passing down linebacker. Willis would be a significant risk-reward pick at two, as he has the potential to be a great dual threat QB, but he is very raw and would require refinement, much like Niners QB Trey Lance.

The Lions also have two picks at the turn, the 32nd – last of the first round – and 34th selections. There is growing chatter amongst pundits that the Lions would go best player available at 2, then take the best QB available at 32, with the additional year of control, and again go with BPA at 34 (a safety or receiver potentially). If taking a quarterback, the Lions would need to determine whether that QB is a future cornerstone player, or if they will be back at the same place next season, which a much better crop expected in the 2023 draft. If the front office believes that they will be in the running for Bryce Young next year, it wouldn’t make sense to commit to a starting QB this year.

Roster Analysis
The Lions were quiet in free agency, content to retain members of their team and a few free agents, largely on one-year deals. They brought LB Jarrad Davis back to the team (he left for the Jets last season), and signed CB Mike Hughes, WR DJ Chark, LB Chris Board, and TE Garrett Griffin. DE Trey Flowers and LB Jalen Reaves-Maybin were the biggest names to leave the club this offseason.
The Lions have significant needs everywhere on the defensive side of the football, with really only EDGE Charles Harris, CB Amani Oruwariye, and S Tracy Walker really acquitting themselves to any real credit. On offense, there is a lot to like, with the exception of the QB position, and possibly the top end of the WR room.

Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Jared Goff
Reserves: Tim Boyle, David Blough, Steven Montez
Expected Draft Action: QB will be taken. The Lions are locked in with Jared Goff for the 2022 season, as they would be on the hook for a $30.5 million dead cap hit if they were to release him prior to June 1st. The Lions may opt to use one of their first round selections on his replacement, or opt to take a lower risk backup type QB with a later selection and roll the dice on being able to take a blue chip QB in the 2023 draft (which would, of course, mean hard times are ahead of Detroit).
Potential Fits: Malik Willis, Liberty (if using the 1-2 pick); Sam Howell, UNC (if using the 1-32 pick); Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky (if using a later pick).

Running Back
Starters: D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams
Reserves: Craig Reynolds, Jermar Jefferson, Godwin Igwubuike
Expected Draft Action: None or depth. The Lions are pretty well situated in the run game – Swift ranked fourth in the league in receptions by a RB in 2021 with 62, while rushing for 617 yards and 5 TDs. Jamaal Williams is an underrated back as well, he ran for 601 yards and caught 26 passes of his own. When Williams and Swift were both injured late in the season, journeyman RB Craig Reynolds played very well, rushing for 83 yards against the Broncos in Week 13 and 112 yards in an upset win over the Cardinals in Week 14. The Lions may take a RB with a late pick or search the free agent bin post-draft to fill any outstanding RB spots in camp.

Wide Receiver
Starters: DJ Chark, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds
Reserves: Kalif Raymond, Quintez Cephus, Javon McKinley, Trinity Benson, Tom Kennedy
Expected Draft Action: Depth. The Lions signed DJ Chark on a one-year bet-on-yourself deal following four injury-plagued seasons in Jacksonville. There is potential here, Chark had 73 catches for 1008 yards and 8 TDs in his relatively healthy season, 2019. His ability to stretch the field will help, if healthy, which is a significant IF. 2021 fourth rounder Amon-Ra St. Brown was a relevation late in the season, after Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties and focused on getting his rookie WR more involved in the offense. There is some depth here, but the Lions could use a pick in the middle rounds to shore up their receiving corps.
Potential Fit: Christian Watson, North Dakota State; Skyy Moore, Western Michigan; Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama; Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky

Tight End
Starter: TJ Hockenson
Reserves: Griffin Garrett, Brock Wright, Hunter Bryant, Jared Pinkney, Shane Zylstra, Matt Sokol
Expected Draft Action: None. In TJ Hockenson, the Lions have a player that can be a safety valve in the passing game, and is a good blocker (though results have been mixed, largely due to injury). A decision is to be made on whether to lock him in to the fifth-year option by May 2nd, and the draft will go some way in determining whether the Lions will lock him in or go another route. The best guess here is that the Lions will lock him in for the fifth season. The Lions may seek to find some insurance for Hockenson in the mid-to-late rounds, as there are no real pass-catching options on their roster as is current situated, though with the sheer number of TE on their roster, it would appear unlikely that they’d look outside the organization past this group at this time.

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Taylor Decker, LG Jonah Jackson, C Frank Ragnow, RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai, RT Penei Sewell
Reserves: T Matt Nelson, Dan Skipper; G Logan Stenberg, Tommy Kraemer; C Evan Brown, Ryan McCollum
Expected Draft Action: None or depth. For a three-win team, the Lions have a very strong offensive line, with solid bookends in Decker and Sewell and a Pro Bowl C in Ragnow. Decker and Ragnow each missed significant time in 2021, and they’ll both need to be healthy for this unit to be one of the stronger ones in the league, but they do have serviceable backups in Evan Brown and Matt Nelson. While it never hurts to bring on more linemen, this is not an area of need for 2021.

Defensive Line
Starters: DE Michael Brockers, NT Alim McNeill, 3T Levi Onwuzurike
Reserves: DE Romeo Okwara; NT John Penisini, Jashon Cornell; 3T Bruce Hector, Eric Banks
Expected Draft Action: Picks across D-line.
Potential Fits: DE/5T Joshua Paschal, Kentucky; DE George Karlaftis, Purdue; DE/5T/3T Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina; DE Cameron Thomas, San Diego State; DE Zach Carter, Florida; NT Travis Jones, UCONN; 3T Phidarian Mathis, Alabama; 3T Matthew Butler, Tennessee; 3T Kalia Davis, UCF

Edge Rushers/Rush Defensive Ends/Outside Linebackers
Starters: Charles Harris, Julian Okwara
Reserves: Austin Bryant, Jessie Lemonier, RaShod Berry
Expected Draft Action: Starter, possible 1-2 pick. While Detroit will play mostly in a Base 4-3 set, the edge rushers will likely be expected to play both standing up and with their hand in the dirt. Michigan DE/EDGE Aidan Hutchinson and Oregon DE/EDGE Kayvon Thibodeau are perfect fits for this defensive scheme and Detroit is likely to take a long look at each of these players in the pre-draft process.
Potential Fits: Hutchinson; Thibodeaux; Boye Mafe, Minnesota

Inside/Strong-Side Linebackers
Starters: Alex Anzalone, Jarrad Davis
Reserves: Shaun Dion Hamilton, Derrick Barnes, Chris Board, Josh Woods, Anthony Pittman, Curtis Bolton, Tavante Beckett
Expected Draft Action: Starter(s). Davis and Board were both signed to compete for one (or both) of the starting ILB spots, but both are on one-year deals and should not be considered a hindrance to the Lions taking a linebacker in the draft. In fact, it would be surprising if the Lions don’t take at least one. If Nakobe Dean or Devin Lloyd were to slip into the bottom portion of the first round, the Lions should jump at the opportunity.
Potential Fit: ILB Quay Walker, Georgia; ILB Damone Clark, LSU (if he slips into Day 3 – he requires a year to recover from back surgery); SLB Chad Muma, Wyoming; SLB Jesse Luketa; ILB Leo Chenal

Cornerbacks
Starters: Amani Oruwariye, Jeff Okudah, AJ Parker
Reserves: Ifeatu Melifonwu, Mike Hughes, Will Harris (slot), Mark Gilbert, Bobby Price, Parnell Motley, Saivion Smith
Expected Draft Action: Depth. With the emergence of CB Amani Oruwariye as a bona fide starting corner, Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu will likely battle it out for the CB2 spot this coming season. Both suffered season-ending injuries early in the 2021 season and will be looking for bounce-back seasons, while Mike Hughes is in from Kansas City to add depth at the position. AJ Parker and Will Harris will likely be in a battle for the slot. For the Lions, they’ll look for someone to challenge for the second corner spot and/or add depth to the unit, along with a steadier nickel/slot option.
Potential Fit: CB Joshua Williams, Fayetteville State; CB Zyom McCollum, Sam Houston State; SCB Damarri Mathis, Pitt; CB/S Joshua Jobe

Safeties
Starters: Tracy Walker, Will Harris
Reserves: CJ Moore, Brady Breeze, JuJu Hughes, Jalen Elliott
Expected Draft Action: Starter, Depth. Harris may be competing for the slot corner job, which would open up a starting spot at safety for the Lions. There are a number of options that will be available to the Lions at 32 or 34, should they look to use one of those picks from one of the (non-Hamilton) elite safeties in the class, including Dax Hill, from down the road in Ann Arbor.
Potential Fits: Dax Hill, Michigan; Lewis Cine, Georgia; Jaquan Brisker, Penn State

NFL DRAFT PREVIEW: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Posted on April 12, 2022April 13, 2022 by matt

Coach: Doug Pederson (first season)
Offensive Coordinator: Press Taylor
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Caldwell

Offensive scheme: Doug Pederson is a disciple of Andy Reid and, like the Chiefs coach, runs a West Coast offense. This type of offense prioritizes short and intermediate passes and uses tight ends and running backs extensively in the passing game.

Defensive scheme: The Jaguars will likely run a defense similar to that run by Tampa Bay’s new head coach Todd Bowles, a hybrid-front scheme that at least appears as a nominal three-man base front with pressure coming from edge rushers either standing up or with hands in the dirt.

The Jaguars presently hold twelve draft picks, including the first overall selection. Sixth of their selections are in the final two rounds. Jaguars Draft Picks (accurate as of April 11th):

Round	Overall Pick	Value (JJ)	Value (RH)	Notes
1	1	3000	1000
2	33	580	180
3	65	265	78
3	70	240	70	From Carolina (CJ Henderson trade)
4	106	82	33
5	157	27	11	From Minnesota (Yannick Ngakoue trade)
6	180	17.8	7
6	188	14.6	6	From Seattle (Sidney Jones trade)
6	197	11	5	From Philadelphia (Gardner Minshew trade)
6	198	10.6	5	From Pittsburgh (Joe Schobert trade)
7	222	1.7	3
7	235	1	2	From Baltimore (Josh Oliver trade)

Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 4250.7
Rich Hill model: 1400

What Will the Jaguars do at the draft?
As the Jags hold the first overall pick, the rest of the draft is waiting on how they will start. The three likeliest scenarios appear to be:
1. Take an edge rusher, presumed to be Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson
2. Take an offensive tackle, either Alabama LT Evan Neal or OL Ickey Ekwonu
3. Trade out of the first overall pick for a small ransom.

Out of the top three scenarios, there appears to be a split over whether to take an edge rusher or a new left tackle, with some pundits believing that the franchise tag placed on current LT Cam Robinson is a signal from the front office that they are not looking to bolster their O-line with this pick. While the franchise tag did seem ill-advised with LT Walker Little waiting in the wings, there is a good possibility that one of these two could take the RT spot currently occupied by 2019 second round pick Jawaan Taylor. As far as edge rushers go, the Jaguars have a good one in the other Josh Allen, though 2020 first round pick K’Lavon Chaisson has failed to live up to expectations on the other side of the line. The Jaguars may be enticed to take Hutchinson, the runner up to Heisman Award winner Bryce Young, to use opposite Allen, much like the Bucs used Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul (or Joe Tryon-Shoyinka).

There is a fourth less likely scenario that wouldn’t shock me, though would be somewhat unprecedented:
4. Take Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton.
The Jaguars have a definite need at safety, with current FS Rayshawn Jenkins failing to impress last season, and Hamilton has the talent to potentially step into the starting lineup on Week 1. However, safeties don’t historical go at the top of the draft, and Hamilton’s measurables were not great at the NFL Combine and were even worse at the Notre Dame Pro Day, which could add some hesitation to making this call on draft day. The Jaguars, for better or worse (and usually worse), aren’t afraid to make an unconventional decision, but we’ll see if they go off the board at 1-1.

Roster Analysis
The Jaguars drastically overhauled their team in free agency, dishing out an estimated $260 million in new contracts (over $100 million in guarantees), in the hopes of infusing some much needed talent across many positions to improve on the barren roster from a year ago. They addressed the offensive line by signing former All-Pro Commanders RG Brandon Scherff, and also picked up wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, tight end (but really slot receiver) Evan Engram, CB Darious Williams, NT Foley Fatukasi, pass rusher Arden Key, and inside linebacker Foye Oluokun. On the other end, they lost offensive linemen AJ Cann, Andrew Norwell, and WR DJ Chark in free agency, cut LB Myles Jack, and C Brandon Linder announced his retirement.
While the contracts handed out to these incoming veterans were greater than expected, and in some cases excessive, there is no doubt that they have upgraded at a few positions, though they will need to use the draft for more upgrades. The Jaguars effectively still need starters at centre, free safety, and linebacker, should seek to upgrade at the X WR spot, left guard, pass rusher/OLB, and right tackle, and could use depth at defensive end, tight end, and running back.

Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Trevor Lawrence
Reserves: CJ Beathard, Jake Luton
Expected Draft Action: None. Jacksonville selected Lawrence with the first overall pick last year, and Beathard is a serviceable backup. With Luton back with the organization, taking a quarterback in this draft doesn’t appear to be necessary,

Running Back
Starters: James Robinson, Travis Etienne
Reserves: Ryquell Armstead, Mekhi Sargent, Nathan Cottrell
Expected Draft Action: Depth. Robinson is one of the league’s most underrated running backs, racking up 1837 yards on the ground and catching 80 passes over his first two seasons, while Etienne is an explosive back who will be a great fit in Pederson’s West Coast offense, especially in the passing game. The Jags do need some depth at the position, as Armstead and Sargent are special teams calibre players who would be hard-pressed to provide significant contributions if Robinson and/or Etienne go down to injury.
Potential Fits: Ty Chandler, UNC; Jaylen Warren, Oklahoma St.

Wide Receiver
Starters: Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones
Reserves: Laviska Shenault, Laquon Treadwell, Jamal Agnew, Terry Godwin, Tim Jones, Jeff Cotton
Expected Draft Action: Depth. After dishing out monster contracts to Kirk and Zay Jones, and also signing Evan Engram, who is a tight end in name only, the Jaguars may be forgiven for ignoring the deep crop of wide receivers in the draft, though it would be advisable to seek some depth, especially at the X (flanker) wide receiver spot. Kirk and Zay Jones have speed but both have been better fits in the slot.
Potential Fit: George Pickens, Georgia

Tight End
Starter: Evan Engram
Reserves: Dan Arnold, Chris Manhertz, Luke Farrell
Expected Draft Action: Balanced TE. Both Engram and Arnold are better receivers than blockers, while Manhertz and Farrell are specifically blocking TE. Problem is that none of these players are good at both. While it would be surprising to see Jacksonville address this need at the draft, they are limited at this position in how they deploy their tight ends. For instance, Engram should be used rarely, if at all, in run-heavy sets, while neither Manhertz nor Farrell will be utilitzed in the passing game.
Potential Fit: Jeremy Ruckert, Ohio State

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Cam Robinson, LG Ben Bartch, C Tyler Shatley, RG Brandon Scherff, RT Jawaan Taylor
Reserves: T Walker Little, Coy Cronk, Brandon Murphy, Badare Traore, G Will Richardson, Jared Hocker, C KC McDermott
Expected Draft Action: Interior Linemen, possible new LT at 1-1. Jacksonville lost all three starting interior linemen (Norwell, Cann, Linder) this offseason, and replaced only Cann, with Scherff. Bartch and Shatley are each replacement level players at this stage and the Jags should actively seek to find their replacements.
Potential Fits: C Luke Fortner, Kentucky; G/C Cole Strange, Chattanooga; G Luke Goedeke, Central Michigan; G Joshua Ezeudu, UNC

Defensive Line
Starters: NT Foley Fatukasi, 3-technique Malcom Brown, 5-technique Roy Robertson-Harris
Reserves: NT DaVon Hamilton; 3T Jay Tufele, Raequan Williams; 5T Dawuane Smoot, Jeremiah Ledbetter
Expected Draft Action: 3T. The Jaguars bolster the interior of their D-line by picking up Foley Fatukasi from the Jets, though they could still improve their 3-technique
Potential Fits: Eyioma Uwazurike, Iowa State; Kalia Davis, UCF

Edge Rushers/Outside Linebackers
Starters: Josh Allen, K’Lavon Chaisson
Reserves: Arden Key, Jordan Smith, Jamir Jones
Expected Draft Action: Starter, possible 1-1 pick. With Chaisson’s struggles in his first two pro seasons, the Jags could turn to the first overall pick to take an edge rusher to play opposite Allen. The Jags could be well suited to take a Big 10 pass rusher – Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson or Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie, dependent on whether they wish to go for the polished player that can be slotted in on Day 1, or if they wish to develop a high-end prospect.
Potential Fits: Hutchinson, Michigan (polished); Ebiketie (project)

Inside Linebackers
Starters: Foye Oluokon, Shaquille Quarterman
Reserves: Chapelle Russell, Tyrell Adams, Dylan Moses, Elijah Sullivan
Expected Draft Action: Depth. While it’s most likely the Jags will go with three linebackers on most downs and they have the bodies, the functional depth at ILB is pretty low. That said, I wouldn’t expect the Jaguars to take one of the top linebackers early in the draft.
Potential Fit: Troy Andersen, Montana State

Cornerbacks
Starters: Shaquill Griffin, Darious Williams, Tyson Campbell
Reserves: Tre Herndon, Rudy Ford, Chris Claybrooks, Xavier Crawford
Expected Draft Action: None. With the addition of Williams from the Rams, the Jags are now hoping to have filled their needs at corner. Griffin was a good, if unspectacular CB in his first season over from Seattle, while 2021 second round pick Tyson Campbell also showed some signs of his ability as the season progressed. In Herndon and Ford, the Jags also have experienced depth at the position.

Safeties
Starters: Rayshawn Jenkins, Andre Cisco
Reserves: SS Andrew Wingard, FS Daniel Thomas, FS Brandon Rusnak
Expected Draft Action: Starter. Andre Cisco, last year’s third round pick out of Syracuse, had an up-and-down start to the season in Jacksonville, but his workload increased towards the end of the season, following an injury to starter Rayshawn Jenkins late in the season. In the final three weeks, Cisco played relatively well, showcasing his potential for the coming season. That said, the other safety spot is completely up for grabs and with a good crop of safeties in the draft, the Jaguars will be well positioned to take one with one of their early round picks.
Potential Fits: Dax Hill, Michigan; Lewis Cine, Georgia; Jaquan Brisker, Penn State

NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

Posted on April 11, 2022 by matt

With the NFL Combine and college Pro Days now in the rearview mirror, it’s crunch time for NFL teams as they prepare and revise their draft boards for the NFL Draft, which will start on April 28th live from Las Vegas. We’ll take a look at what teams will be looking for in the draft, from the early rounds to the end and how they can emerge from the draft a better team than how they entered it.

The talent pool is deep, though the draft is lacking in franchise-changing players, as evidenced by the fluidity at the top of the draft. For the owners of the first overall pick, this poses a conundrum – yes, you’ll get the player you covet the most, but what happens when you take a player first overall that won’t be a cornerstone player. The Jaguars made that pick last season when they took Trevor Lawrence first overall, but now that they find themselves in the same place again this year, what do they do?

Meanwhile, if you’re a team like the Texans, with 7 of the draft’s first 108 picks, you’ll see this draft as a much-needed opportunity to infuse your roster with good young talent.

Leading up to the draft, I’ll take a look at what teams need to do in this draft and how we can expect the events to unfold.

APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL: WEEK 18 (FINAL WEEK!)

Posted on January 4, 2022January 4, 2022 by matt

We have nearly reached the end of this NFL season and I’d like to give everyone a big thank you for joining and hanging in again this season. While there have been some turbulent events in and around the league (and elsewhere!) it’s been a pleasure to bring this pool to you again this year. Running this through a blog has been a learning curve but something I hope to expand in the next season.

All that aside, Week 18 promises to be an interesting week, in the sense that a vast majority of the matchups feature one team in the playoffs (or in the hunt) and another team that has little to play for. You can see the playoff scenarios on the blog (pinned for your convenience!) but they’ll also be sorted here by time and ranked by level of importance, ranked from the most important game (1) to the least important game (16). You probably don’t need to many guesses to figure out #1

Here is the schedule, with the write-up underneath

Time	Date	Away	Home	Winner	Conf	Pick Due	Time
4:30	08-Jan	Kansas City	Denver			08-Jan	4:30 PM
8:15	08-Jan	Dallas	Philadelphia			08-Jan	8:15 PM
1:00	09-Jan	Pittsburgh	Baltimore			09-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	09-Jan	Cincinnati	Cleveland			09-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	09-Jan	Washington	NY Giants			09-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	09-Jan	Chicago	Minnesota			09-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	09-Jan	Tennessee	Houston			09-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	09-Jan	Indianapolis	Jacksonville			09-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	09-Jan	Green Bay	Detroit			09-Jan	1:00 PM
4:25	09-Jan	NY Jets	Buffalo			09-Jan	1:00 PM
4:25	09-Jan	New Orleans	Atlanta			09-Jan	1:00 PM
4:25	09-Jan	Carolina	Tampa Bay			09-Jan	1:00 PM
4:25	09-Jan	San Francisco	LA Rams			09-Jan	1:00 PM
4:25	09-Jan	New England	Miami			09-Jan	1:00 PM
4:25	09-Jan	Seattle	Arizona			09-Jan	1:00 PM
8:20	09-Jan	LA Chargers	Las Vegas			09-Jan	1:00 PM

It should be noted that most of these games are fierce divisional rivalries and have inherent importance, so while they may have some added juice for that reason, that will play little into the importance factor. Also, ratings are based somewhat on other mitigating factors – for instance, the expectation is that the Colts will win comfortably, so the rating of the Steelers-Ravens reflects that. If the Jaguars can be competitive in their game, the significance of Steelers-Ravens shoots up significantly.

SATURDAY
Chiefs at Broncos, 4:30 pm ET
Importance: 8
The Chiefs need a win and a Titans loss for the 1 seed. A loss could put them as low as fourth.
The Broncos are out of the playoffs and have nothing to play for, aside from pride.
An interesting choice for ESPN but they likely didn’t have a lot of sway here. There weren’t a lot of big games that had limited implications elsewhere.

Cowboys at Eagles, 8:15 pm ET
Importance: 11
The Cowboys have locked up the division and the Packers have already locked up the bye. They may be motivated to win to get out of the four seed to avoid the Cardinals or Rams… but that is no certainty.
The Eagles have clinched a playoff spot, which will be either sixth or seventh in the NFC. Will they care which seed they get? I’m guessing no.
Two teams already in the playoffs may not be inclined to play their starters or play very close to the vest. Or maybe they’ll go all out.

SUNDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON GAMES
Steelers at Ravens, 1:00 pm ET
Importance: 10
Technically, both teams will go into this game with something to play for. The Colts-Jaguars game takes place at the same time and both teams will be hoping (but can’t really be expecting) the Jaguars to make that game competitive and the Steelers and Ravens will be going all out, at least until the Colts put the other game away.
The Steelers may have some added urgency as this will likely be Ben Roethlisberger’s last game.

Colts at Jaguars, 1:00 pm ET
Importance: 4
Since it was alluded to above, the Colts-Jaguars game has much in the way of knock on value to a number of the other games played this weekend, though that might not be apparent in the play in this one.
If the Colts do not win, they’ll need to rely on the Ravens, Raiders, and Dolphins to all come out victorious in their games to make the playoffs. But really, if they can’t beat the Jaguars in a must-win, are they really a team that deserves the playoffs?
The Jaguars secure the first overall pick in the NFL Draft with a loss and, while the players may be motivated to win or at least put together some positive tape, a lot of them haven’t been doing that to this point, so why expect it now?

Titans at Texans, 1:00 pm ET
Importance: 6
If the Titans win this game, they are guaranteed the first round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. If they lose, the Chiefs, Bengals, or Patriots could pass them. They’ll know what the Chiefs do before this game but will be expected to go full strength in this one regardless.
The Texans have played with fire at times to close out a lost season, and beat the Titans in Nashville in Week 11. They should be up for this one, so it should (hopefully) be entertaining at least.

Bengals at Browns, 1:00 pm ET
Importance: 12
The Bengals still have a shot at securing the first round bye in the AFC, though they’ll know the Chiefs result by now. If the Chiefs win, the Bengals have no shot at the bye and will be playing for seeding. As the 5-7 spots will be more or less interchangeable, this may not be a big game from their point of view. The importance factor varies wildly based on Chiefs-Broncos.
The Browns have been eliminated from the playoffs and just laid an egg against the Steelers. They may be up for this one though.

Packers at Lions, 1:00 pm ET
Importance: 14
The Packers have secured a first-round bye in the postseason, so many players should be expected to sit this one out.
The Lions have been competitive for much of the last half of the season, biting kneecaps and all, and should play their traditional rival hard, even if the Packers are undermanned. They would get the first overall pick with a loss and a Jags win but I find it hard to believe they’d play to lose. That said, this game is only for pride for both teams.

Bears at Vikings, 1:00 pm ET
Importance: 15
This may be the last game for the head coaches, Matt Nagy and Mike Zimmer. Will that carry any additional weight? No idea but this game could be a slog.

WFT at Giants, 1:00 pm ET
Importance: 16
Not wasting any more keystrokes than necessary on this one.

LATE AFTERNOON GAMES
Niners at Rams, 4:25 pm ET
Importance: 2
The second-most important game of the week pits a team needing the win to make it against a team looking to wrap up the division. Adding intrigue to this is that the Niners have won the last five games against the Rams.
This is a must-win game for the Niners. If they lose the Saints could pass them if they beat the Falcons, and while the Falcons may be up for the divisional showdown, it’s no certainty.
The Rams could really use this win to secure the division, vanquish the Niners finally, and potentially to get Cooper Kupp the 171 yards he needs to be the first receiver to crack 2000 yards (or just the 136 to pass Calvin Johnson’s 1964 yards).

Saints at Falcons, 4:25 pm ET
Importance: 3
The Saints need a win here and the Niners loss to make the postseason following a tumultuous season in which they lost their starting QB Jameis Winston to a torn ACL, and suffered through substandard play from the other THREE QB’s they’ve need to use.
The Falcons were officially eliminated last week and the week before they won their first game in their home stadium in a full calendar year. They will likely play hard against their division foes.

Seahawks at Cardinals, 4:25 pm ET
Importance: 5
This is a rare lost season for the Seahawks, who nevertheless just put up 51 points against the Lions last week. Will they be up for this one? Is this Pete Carroll’s last game in the Pacific Northwest? Is it the last for Russell Wilson?
The Cardinals need a win here and a Rams loss to take back the NFC West that they’ve led for almost the whole season. A win would certainly be good for playoff morale, especially after they beat the Cowboys in Dallas last week.

Patriots at Dolphins, 4:25 pm ET
Importance: 9
By this time, the Pats will know whether they can get the 1 seed, but if the Jets can do the improbable and beat the Bills in Orchard Park, the Patriots would win the division if they beat the Dolphins, which has been no easy feat in the Belichick era.
The Dolphins have nothing to play for as they’ve been eliminated. They could alter the AFC playoff race with a win, but will that be enough motivation? Motivation would likely come in the form of wanting to beat their division rivals to prevent another Pats AFC East division title.

Jets at Bills, 4:25 pm ET
Importance: 7
Much like the Colts-Jags or Titans-Texans, this game is important for the Bills, though they should have little trouble beating their division rival. A loss by Buffalo opens up the AFC East for the Patriots.
The Jets, as with the Texans and Lions, have been pesky in recent weeks and should be that way here.

Panthers at Buccaneers, 4:25 pm ET
Importance: 13
The Panthers are playing like a team running out the clock.
There are seeding implications for this game, but would expect that the Bucs will take a very cautious approach to playing their starters here, especially those like Mike Evans that are somewhat banged up right now.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Chargers at Raiders, 8:20 pm ET
Importance: 1
There is little that needs to be said to drum up interest in this game. The Chargers and the Raiders are both 9-7, and a win means a postseason berth is assured for the winner. If the Colts win their game earlier on Sunday, it also means that the loser of this game will not make the playoffs (and will know by kickoff time).