When you are a struggling team, how early is too early to make a change at head coach? Every team (and their expectations) are different: the Detroit Lions are 1-3, but did anyone really expect them to do well? They could make a change at the end of the season, but firing Dan Campbell mid-season, especially this early, would be a curious move. The Patriots and Steelers are unlikely to fire their head coaches, unless something off the field were to force their respective hands (not implying, just saying Belichick and Tomlin aren’t getting axed). Josh McDaniels, Lovie Smith, and Dennis Allen are first year head coaches, so canning any of them after four games would be a very curious move – even if you think someone, say Dennis Allen, was a mistake, that mistake will not be fixed one month into the season.
Of the sub-.500 teams in the NFL, this leaves: Frank Reich of the 1-2-1 Colts, Ron Rivera of the 1-3 Commanders, and Matt Rhule of the 1-3 Panthers.
Frank Reich is in his fifth year as a head coach in Indianapolis, and has a 38-30-1 record, including two trips to the playoffs. Their drop-off this season from past season has seemed especially stark due to the poor play of their offensive line, and new QB Matt Ryan turning into a turnover machine (five INTs and nine fumbles in four games!). Reich has earned the benefit of the doubt but the Colts offense (Reich’s specialty) has looked awful. There hasn’t been much heat on his seat, and the Colts are just a half-game back of the Jags and Titans in the dreadful AFC South, but if they continue on this run, the chatter may start… but definitely not yet.
Ron Rivera is in his third year as head coach in Washington, with a 15-22 as head of the Commanders (91-85-1 counting his tenure in Carolina). Washington made the playoffs in Rivera’s first season, an improbable result given their 7-9 record, Rivera needing to undergo in-season radiation and chemotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma, and the return of Alex Smith from his horrific leg injury. Since then, the now Commanders have struggled to a 7-win season in 2021 and a 1-3 record to start 2022. The Commanders have really struggled on both sides of the ball this year, ranking 10th-last in yards in both offense and defense, suffered a -6 turnover margin, and have looked relatively poor in all phases. Rivera and the management team have done a lot to fix up the off-the-field issues plaguing the organization, a rot that included its erstwhile owner Dan Snyder, though the on-the-field issues persist. Rivera has attempted to manage expectations with the fanbase, indicating that the team is aware that they are in a rebuild. This would also indicate that Rivera is relatively safe from the firing line – he does hold a significant amount of sway within the organization and would likely be heavily involved in the rebuild – but the angry fanbase will need to be satisfied at some point, and this team doesn’t look capable of providing it.
Matt Rhule is in his third year as head coach of Carolina, amassing a 11-26 record. While Rhule is a defensive specialist and the Panthers have been good on that side of the ball, he and management have not figured out the offense at all. The offense is last in the league in total yards and has scored just six touchdowns in the first four games. The Panthers only won five games last year due to their top-3 defense. Now that the defense is middle of the road (18th in total yards allowed), the team’s shortcomings are even more evident. The Panthers have won three of their last 18 games and they have the Niners, Rams, and Bucs up next on the schedule. Rhule’s seat is surface of the sun hot, it would be easy to see them getting to 1-6 and very difficult to see him making it through that stretch unscathed.
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RESULTS This was a better week for the pool, the average score topped 12 points for the first time this season. Leading the way were David, Mark, Adam, and Des, all with 16 points apiece. Anthony remains at the top of the standings after four weeks, with 46 points, two points ahead of Donna P and Marcus. Randy is in fourth with 43, while David, Paul, The Predictor, and Keville are all tied for fifth with 42.
While not all teams are created equal, the standings through the third week of the season show parity throughout the league, as only two teams (Philadelphia and Miami) are undefeated at 3-0, while only two teams (Houston and Las Vegas) are winless. Interesting to note out of those four teams, Houston is the only team that is not a surprise to have started the season this way. This week, we’ll take a look at these four teams and look how they got here and what to expect as the season goes on.
First, the undefeated teams: Philadelphia (3-0) First three weeks: W at Detroit (38-35), W vs Minnesota (24-7), W at Washington (24-8) Next three games: vs Jacksonville (2-1), at Arizona (1-2), vs Dallas (2-1) Points for: 86 (5th) Points against: 50 (7th) Philadelphia has most potent offense in the league through three weeks, totaling 1341 yards, including 8.5 yards per pass attempt, which easily outpaces the league. Duel threat QB Jalen Hurts has received extensive praise for his passing (916 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) and rushing (167 yards, 3 TDs) and has seen his odds for MVP improve dramatically (DraftKings has him at +600). A.J. Brown (20 rec, 309 yards, 1 TD) has added an elite receiving threat the Eagles haven’t had since T.O., while DeVonta Smith might be the next – he didn’t catch a pass in Week 1 but still has 15 catches for 249 yards, including an 8/169/1 line against the Commanders in Week 3. Add underrated TE Dallas Goedert (11/168/1), and a solid 1-2 rushing attack with Hurts and Miles Sanders (45/222/1) and the Eagles offense looks for real. It should be noted that the Lions and Commanders defenses range from mediocre to awful but hard to deny the results so far. On the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles have allowed only 890 total yards. The cornerback combo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry have been dominant (just ask Justin Jefferson in Week 2) and the defensive front have been getting to the quarterback, with the team’s 12 sacks ranking them second in the league behind the Cowboys. After a down 201 by his standards, DT Fletcher Cox appears to be terrorizing defenses from the interior, racking up 3 sacks in 3 games (including 1.5 sacks of Carson Wentz in Week 3). Future prognosis: The Eagles schedule looks tougher now than it did at the beginning of the season, but still looks to be in their favour. It’s conceivable that they go into their bye at 6-0, but all of the next three teams are in the “tougher than they look” category. Even with the NFC East being better this season, the Eagles have the inside track on the division and could easily win 12 games in 2022.
Miami (3-0) First three weeks: W vs New England (20-7), W at Baltimore (42-38), W vs Buffalo (21-19) Next three games: at Cincinnati (1-2), at NY Jets (1-2), vs Minnesota (2-1) Points for: 83 (8th) Points against: 64 (16th) Under rookie head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins find themselves at the top of the AFC after three weeks with a 3-0 record, one that has been driven by a dynamic passing attack and a lot of good fortune. First, the good: Miami is fourth in the league in total passing yards (874) with a revitalized Tua Tagovailoa (925 pass yards, 8 TD, 2 INT) and a two-headed monster in second-year WR Jaylen Waddle (19/342/3) and new acquisition Tyreek Hill (21/317/2). After a tumultuous first two seasons, Tua has found a coach who will work to his strengths (accuracy, short-to-intermediate passes) and personnel suited to those strengths. The deep passing game is also therewhen needed (Tua is second in the league in completion percentage over 20 yards) but the team’s strength is getting the ball to its playmakers (Waddle and Hill) in space, wherever they may be. Defense is a different story, the Dolphins have allowed the second-most yards in the league, and while they were able to create pressure on Bills QB Josh Allen in Week 3, the team surrendered nearly 500 yards to the Ravens and Bills in consecutive weeks. The Dolphins blitz 25% of the time (around league average) but they send 6 or more on many of those blitzes and can leave the secondary vulnerable if they do not pressure the quarterback. The run game is also a big issue in Miami – Raheem Mostert (24/78/0) and Chase Edmonds (23/79/2) have not been utilized much, nor especially effective when asked to carry the ball. The team does generally use the short passing game as a sort of replacement for the run game, but at 192 yards per game, the Dolphins have the second-worst rushing attack. This sort of one-dimensional offense may hurt them as the season wears on (and especially in the playoffs). Future prognosis: The Dolphins are indeed 3-0, but could easily be 1-2 if not for a miracle comeback in Baltimore and some uncharacteristically sloppy play by a Bills team affected by the south Florida heat. The team needs to patch holes in its defense and will be tested by the Bengals and Vikings in the upcoming weeks, not to mention the rest of their schedule. That said, they’ve faced two of the league’s best passing attacks and have come out undefeated. This team should compete for a playoff spot on the strength of their offense, but really needs to improve defensively to look at winning the division or being a true contender for a Super Bowl.
Now for the winless teams Houston (0-2-1) First three games: T vs Indianapolis (20-20), L at Denver (16-9), L at Chicago (23-20) Next three games: vs LA Chargers (1-2), at Jacksonville (2-1), BYE, at Las Vegas (0-3) Points for: 49 (26th) Points against: 59 (12th) If you looked at Houston’s roster heading into this season – or the underlying statistics from the first three games – you’d likely not be surprised by Houston’s record so far this season (perhaps except for the tie). If you look at the scores, you see a team that is in games each week and for a team like Houston, being a tough team to play is a positive attribute. Four rookies – CB Derek Stingley Jr, G Kenyon Green, S Jalen Pitre, and RB Dameon Pierce – have all started and played extensively in the first three weeks: Pitre looks like a star at safety for the Texans, and has shown the ability to play centre field in Lovie Smith’s cover 2, and Pierce (46/182/1) has been workmanlike in his first three weeks, but had nearly all of the Texans’ carries in Weeks 2 and 3 and did not embarrass himself. The first rounders, Stingley and Green, are works in progress at this point. QB Davis Mills (662 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) has been poor to this point in the season and, aside from Pierce, WR Brandin Cooks is the only player to have really impressed in the first three weeks. The defense is a mess, the Texans have allowed an abysmal 607 yards rushing (including 281 against the Bears in Week 3), making them by far the worst defense in the league (the Bears and Seahawks are tied for second-worst at 471). The Bills and Jaguars have each allowed fewer total yards than the Texans’ average. That said, the Texans have been good (fortunate?) in the defensive red zone, allowing just 40% of the opposition’s red zone visits to result in touchdowns, fifth-best in the league. Future prognosis: The Texans are still in the early stages of a long and painful rebuild – this team will legitimately challenge for the first overall pick – but as is the case with young teams, there is hope that some of the issues we see early in the season will be considered learning moments and improved upon as the season progresses. However, anything more than four wins would be a minor miracle in Houston.
Las Vegas (0-3) First three games: L at Chargers (24-19), L vs Arizona (29-23, OT), L at Tennessee (24-22) Next three games: vs Denver (2-1), at Kansas City (2-1), BYE, vs Houston (0-2-1) Points for: 64 (10th) Points against: 77 (26th) The Raiders have lost their first three games by a combined 13 points, all to teams that were expected to be, at worst, in the playoff hunt heading into the 2022 season. Interestingly, none of those three teams have really lived up to offseason hype (much like the Raiders) but all of whom scored victories over the Silver and Black. The Raiders have not done anything particularly well to start the season: QB Derek Carr has thrown for 850 yards, but has also turned the ball over five times; Maxx Crosby has 2 sacks for Las Vegas, but the rest of the team has ZERO; Josh Jacobs has been adequate running the ball, but the Raiders have not hit the 100 yard rushing mark in any of its first three games; and following his 141 yard debut, Davante Adams has totaled 7 catches for 48 yards in the past two weeks. This is a team that looks very top heavy, and at an average age of 27 years, 3 months, is also one of the league’s oldest. Future prognosis: The Raiders were able to sneak into the playoffs in the last game of the season, after some questionable moves by Chargers HC Brandon Staley helped gift the Raiders the final game of the regular season. Making the playoffs and their subsequent close loss to the AFC champion Bengals may have given the Raiders a misguided sense of being close to Super Bowl contention, especially when making the big trade with the Packers for Davante Adams, which cost them their first and second round picks. The AFC West is weaker than it was to start the season, but still formidable, and the schedule still does Las Vegas no favours this season. The team was able to fight all sorts of adversity in 2021, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll be able to overcome the more mundane version offered in 2022.
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RECAP AND STANDINGS Another week, another round of upsets in the NFL, as the Indianapolis Colts got their first win of the season at the expense of Kansas City (and their special teams implosion), and in what might be the shocker of the season so far, the now 2-1 Jacksonville Jaguars annihilated the Chargers 38-10 in Inglewood. The Chargers were banged up heading into the game, with Justin Herbert nursing a painful rib cartilage injury and the team missing several key players, but this game also said a lot about the state of the Jacksonville Jaguars who are now coming off two very convincing victories over what are, on paper, two playoff-calibre teams (of course neither team has looked that way this year). QB Trevor Lawrence has improved even over the course of three weeks in this season and the defense looks strong (LB Devin Lloyd is an absolute stud). Ignore the talk about them being “the team to beat in the AFC”, they need to do more to prove that, but this team is absolutely not a team to blindly throw confidence picks against anymore.
After three weeks in the pool, our leader is rookie Anthony Saccucci, with 32 points. Anthony leads by two points over Marcus, Gary, Michelle, and Anthony’s father, Joe. Kevin, the Predictor, Donna, Keville, and Fred all round out the top 10 with 29 points apiece. Our top scorer this week was Jason Gogna with 13 points! Jason was able to avoid the landmines (KC and Chargers) and won all of his confidence picks. His big week put him into a tie for 11th place.
To paraphrase a quote from Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver, momentum is only as good as next week’s game. The NFL is unlike other sports in that a one-in-seventeen sample is a lot more significant than a one-in-eighty-two sample in the NHL or NBA, or a one-in-one-hundred-sixty-two sample in MLB. However, a one-game sample is hardly definitive, and the next one-game sample can be completely different from the previous. We tend to go right along with the trends, shifting our opinions week-over-week, or quarter-over-quarter, or even minute-over-minute.
Think about what we thought of these teams, at any given time and what we think about them now: Is Minnesota the team that beat up on a top contender in the NFC in Week 1, or are they the team that got totally dominated by Philly in Week 2? Conversely, is Green Bay the team with the directionless team we saw in Minneapolis, or the strong-defensive minded team we saw in Week 2 against Chicago? Things can even change quarter-over-quarter: in Baltimore, the Ravens looked to be ready to coast, with a 35-14 lead over the Dolphins heading into the fourth quarter. Then the floodgates opened and the Dolphins mounted an improbable comeback, scoring four touchdowns in the final frame to win 42-38. Now we’re all exalting Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa as the second coming. Minute over minute? The Browns were seconds away from having a big jump on the rest of the AFC North – they were about ready to move to 2-0 after a Nick Chubb touchdown run with just inside 2:00 left, but then the Jets (YES, NEW YORK JETS) scored two touchdowns (and recovered an onside kick) in the final 90 seconds to pull off a crazy 31-30 win. Is Chubb at fault for not falling down at the 1 or 2 yard line instead of going in for that score? Or maybe, just maybe, the Browns could’ve done more to seal the victory on defense and special teams. What do you think, Grant Delpit and Denzel Ward? No need to answer gentlemen, and sorry if I interrupted your Sunday stroll in the park.
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RESULTS AND STANDINGS All that to say that perceptions can change quickly and it’s never too early to change your minds, nor is it too late to wait for a bigger sample size to formulate your opinions. When you look at the pool standings, you see Nigel and Tyler at the top. In the first week, Nigel and Tyler both put up 8 points which, on the face of it, wasn’t terrible. It was better than the average, just not among the top players. This week though, they both amassed a season-high 15 points, to take the lead at 23 points, along with Jason R. If we continue the analogy, Jason is like Tampa Bay, putting up two solid performances in Week 1 and 2 and keeping his spot in the lead. Gary, Fred, and Michelle are right on their trails, with 22 points of their own, and Terry, Steve, Marcus, and Ronda round out the top ten with 21 points. By the end of next week, we may be looking at a whole new leaderboard and people who we thought were out of it, sneak back in. All that said, credit to Nigel, Tyler, and Jason for their strong showings after 2 weeks and good luck to all of you as the season wears on.
In this article, I’ll do a summary on each division and team within it, identifying a key talking point and something to watch for from each team as the season progresses. There’s been a lot to unpack so let’s get right into it, starting with today’s piece on the AFC East.
AFC EAST Overview: after two weeks, the members of the AFC East have a combined record of 6-2, with one of those losses being in the division. The Bills and Dolphins have flown out of the gates with two straight wins, while the Patriots and Jets both secured away wins against AFC North opposition in week two. The outlook on the Bills was strong, and we were aware that Miami had potential – after two weeks, the Bills are still the favourite to win the division (and perhaps win it all), but with Miami’s offense looking strong, the Dolphins are closing the gap. New England looks like a .500-level team that will need its defense to shine week-in, week-out, while the Jets are still on their long trail to respectability. The Jets miracle comeback against the Browns helps in the standings and will also help morale, but should they be expected to improve in the hyper-competitive AFC?
BUFFALO BILLS (2-0), next opponent: at Miami. KEY TALKING POINT: The Bills might have the league’s most dominant offense AND defense. Buffalo followed its dominant opening night win over the defending champion Rams with an evisceration of conference nemesis, Tennessee. No team has scored more points on offense, and only the Bucs have allowed fewer points on defense. They are third in total yards on offense, second best in yards allowed on defense (on 3.6 yards per play, a half yard less on average than anyone else). They’d made all their field goal attempts and two of their three punts were muffed by the receiving team. This is a scary team that should be in everyone’s conversation of Super Bowl favourites. WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Can injuries be the one thing that slows Buffalo down? The Bills went into their second game without DT Ed Oliver, DT Tim Settle and WR Gabe Davis, and lost CB Dane Jackson to a serious-looking neck injury, S Micah Hyde to another potential neck injury, and LB Matt Milano and DT Jordan Phillips also left the game early. Fortunately, Jackson had full movement in his extremities, but there is a concern for a neck fracture, which would put him out of the lineup for a while. The Bills went with two rookies, Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam, as their outside cornerbacks after the injury. While the Bills play zone almost exclusively on defense, this could cause problems, especially if Hyde also needs to miss time with his injury.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-0), next opponent, vs Buffalo KEY TALKING POINT: Tua has been unlocked. After two tumultuous seasons, it appears that Tua Tagovailoa’s skillset has been optimized by new coach Mike McDaniel, along with his speedy receiving targets Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tua exploded in the second half comeback against the Ravens, throwing for 469 yards and six touchdowns. Both Waddle and Hill had 11 receptions and over 170 yards and 2 TDs apiece on Sunday. The Dolphins have schemed both Waddle and Hill (especially Hill) to get the ball in space on short throws, which has also opened up deeper pass plays for the two. At the moment, the Dolphins are overly reliant on Waddle and Hill, as no other player has more than 48 receiving yards, but this is a tough duo to stop. WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Dolphins pass rush and passing defense look shaky. The Dolphins did get to Mac Jones, with a Brandon Jones strip sack resulting in a defensive touchdown in Week 1, but the Dolphins have just two sacks and are allowing a league-worst 9.0 yards per pass attempt (and a league-worst 6.9 yards per play on defense). Their two sacks and 10.9% pressure rate on passes are also among the league’s worst. While Tua and the Dolphins were able to perform magic on offense, Lamar Jackson had his way with their defense – they’re not alone in having trouble containing Jackson, but the conference is full of dynamic offenses. Trouble now could mean trouble later too. This weekend’s matchup with the Bills will be another yardstick for the Dolphins as the Bills defense is unlikely to be as forgiving as the Ravens but just as explosive on offense, if not more so.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-1), next opponent: vs Baltimore KEY TALKING POINT: Much like the New England team that made it to the postseason last year, the Patriots success will be predicated by its defense. Their defense has allowed the fourth-fewest yards in the league, which includes what appears to be a high-octane Dolphins attack, and 34 points, which is in the top 10 (and includes a defensive score by Miami in Week 1). Their six sacks put them in the top ten in the league, and they are a team that uses pressure, blitzing 30% of the time. If the Patriots are going to challenge for a playoff spot this year, they’ll need more of the same. WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Can the offense turn it around? Matt Patricia and Joe Judge being assigned to run the Patriots offense cause head scratches around the league, and that befuddlement has only increased after the first two weeks. They are in the bottom 10 in total yards on offense and have only visited the opposing red zone four times in two games (only Cowboys, Texans, and Seahawks have been there fewer times than New England). Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson is a decent 1-2 punch at RB but the receiving corps lacks talent, which may put a ceiling on New England’s potential. Bill Belichick and his staff will be tasked with getting the most out of this unit this season, though there is a lot of skepticism surrounding whether it is possible.
NEW YORK JETS (1-1), next opponent, vs Cincinnati KEY TALKING POINT: Passing-heavy offense with Joe Flacco. In their first two games, the Jets threw the ball a league-high 104 times, 15 times more than second place Cincinnati (89). At least part of that is circumstance – they fell behind early against Baltimore and drew up 62 pass plays in that game. It will be interesting to see how this changes, if at all, when Zach Wilson is ready to come back from his meniscus tear – likely in October. Garrett Wilson has impressed early, catching 12 passes for 154 yards and 2 TDs in his first two NFL games. WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Will the Jets improve on 2021? With their improbable win over the Browns, the Jets stand at 1-1 and have won as many games on the road as in all of last year. The Jets were second-worst in the league in point differential at -194 but did have a couple notable wins over the Bengals and Titans. That said, there’s some good new talent here, Wilson, Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner to name a few, and this roster will take some time to fill out and grow. This year looks to be more of a transition year but improving on the 4-win season a year ago should be achievable.
Before getting into the week that was, here are the numbers for the 2022 APY NFL Football Pool: There are 48 members of the pool, up from 44 one season ago. Thank you to Sam, Joe L, and Terry, and Paul as your recruiting efforts helped bring new people into the pool! The new members are: Tyler Fred Kyle Jeremy Randy Anthony Mark Sawyer and Michelle, who returns to the pool Welcome aboard everyone!
48 members at $20 each means the total pot is $960. And here’s how the pot will be divided: First Place: $650 (67.7% of total pot) Second Place: $150 Third Place: $80 Fourth Place: $20 Three mini-pools of 16 participants: $20 to the winner of each Details on the three mini-pools will be provided towards the start of the mini-pools in Week 13.
For those who have yet to pay (my records show two people are short), I will follow up for payment. If payment is not provided, those players will be removed and the pot will be reduced. It’s only happened once in the million years I’ve been running this pool, so everything should be handled without issue.
APY POOL RESULTS – WEEK 1
The first week of NFL action is in the books, as is the first week of results in the APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL. There were a number of upsets in the NFL this week, with losses by Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Denver… and the tie by Indianapolis*… all cause pain to the poolies this week, costing a number of confidence losses. * – see below
Despite all the wild events of week 1, we had three people score 12 points apiece: Jason R, Keville, and Michelle all topped the charts this week, with Ronda following closely behind with 11. Congrats Jason, Keville, and Michelle!
We know that the days following Week 1 bring out the crazies who think the world is coming to an end because something unexpected happened. I’ve attempted to bring some sense to the madness (but think I just made it worse). Judge for yourself: CHIEFS 44, CARDINALS 21 KANSAS CITY: Tyreek Who? Patrick Mahomes had a near-perfect game, with a 30/39, 360 yard line with FIVE touchdown passes. Just as impressive was the performance of the defense, which held the Cardinals to 122 yards in the first three quarters, before the Cardinals were able to mount two TD drives in garbage time. The Chiefs are a contender and this game was to remind anyone who might’ve felt otherwise. ARIZONA: After the game, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury bemoaned the team’s lack of effort in practice leading up to the game. That’s disconcerting, especially after news started surfacing about a film study requirement in Murray’s monster contract extension and his reluctance to put in extra work. Being this unprepared for a team of Kansas City’s calibre is asking for a beat down. Both the Cardinals and Packers appeared to be unprepared for Week 1, which is far from good but also correctible. It’ll be up to both teams to put in the necessary work to put in the work and bounce back in Week 2.
Whether winning, losing or (ahem) tying, the results of the first week of the NFL season throw everyone into a panic. Bad results are especially panic-inducing, of course, but wins can have fans envisioning the playoffs or better. With that in mind, real quick hit analysis on whether the panic button should be mashed immediately… or if you should be planning for a parade.
BILLS 31, RAMS 10 BUFFALO: Plan the parade? Maybe. Tough to that far for or a championship-starved city like Buffalo, but this team looks great on paper and delivered on Thursday, with an evisceration of the defending champion Rams. Von Miller and the defensive front for the Bills was in the Rams backfield all night and Stefon Diggs caused a lot of trouble for the Rams secondary. Then there was this tone-setting stiff arm by Josh Allen. The Bills were great in Week 1 and are a very real Super Bowl contender. RAMS: Panic time? Not yet. They ran into a very motivated buzzsaw in the Bills. Another team with Super Bowl aspirations, they won’t be very happy with how they were handled in their home stadium, but this loss will be something they’ll need to learn from. The Atlanta Falcons visit them this week and it could get ugly.
STEELERS 23, BENGALS 20 PITTSBURGH: What you see is what you get in Pittsburgh. The defense kept them in the game and getting anything out of the offense will be a challenge. Even moreso now, as RB Najee Harris suffered a high ankle sprain late in the game. On defense, the injury for TJ Watt will be damaging, though the performance of Minkah Fitzpatrick (doing his best Troy Polamalu impression in Week 1) and LB Alex Highsmith give them hope they can overcome the injuries. CINCINNATI: Panic time? No. The Bengals did everything they could to lose this game – five turnovers by Joe Burrow, including a pick-6 by Fitzpatrick, 7 sacks against, special teams gaffes – but they still had two chances to win the game in spite of that. Cincinnati goes to Dallas, a team that (as we’ll discover later) is an 0-1 team that is in much more of a bind.
COLTS 20, TEXANS 20 This tie was more like a loss to the Colts and a win to the Texans (especially given their decision to punt with 26 seconds left in OT). INDIANAPOLIS: Panic? This game shouldn’t really change anyone’s perception of the Colts. They are still a good team that is very much dependent on Jonathan Taylor to succeed. Taylor did succeed here, turning 31 carries into 161 rushing yards and a TD. If you had them slotted in to win 10 games and challenge for a playoff spot, you won’t need to change your opinions. HOUSTON: The Texans played their division rivals tough, but ultimately are a rebuilding team that was more than happy to take a home tie. That should be enough to tell you about their chances this season.
EAGLES 38, LIONS 35 PHILADELPHIA: A three point win over the Lions is not reason to start planning any parades. The offense with new WR A.J. Brown and their two-pronged rushing attack with Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders looks really good. The Lions defense though is very bad, so managing expectations is important here – especially when the Lions are able to put up 35 points on your defense. The Eagles schedule is pretty favourable, and the playoffs are definitely in their sights. DETROIT: The offense looked good, especially D’Andre Swift, who ran for 144 rushing yards and a TD. The defense was thought to be pretty thin and they confirmed it here, giving up 38 points to Philadelphia. This team could win 6-7 games on the strength of its offense if things go their way, but anything more than that would be surprising.
SAINTS 27, FALCONS 26 NEW ORLEANS: After falling behind by 16 points in the fourth quarter, the Saints were able to fight back and win the game on a 51 yard field goal by Wil Lutz. New Orleans will be happy with the performance of new WR Jarvis Landry (7 rec, 114 yds) , returning WR Michael Thomas (5-57-2 TDs), and Taysom Hill, who ran for a 81 yards and a TD. On defense, the Falcons run game caused them problems, with Cordarrelle Patterson and Marcus Mariota combining for 192 yards on the ground. A 26-10 loss to Atlanta would’ve caused some panic, so the come-from-behind win helped Saints fans a lot. ATLANTA: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is not a good thing. Atlanta was expected to be among the worst teams in the league, so this loss does nothing to change perceptions.
DOLPHINS 20, PATRIOTS 7 NEW ENGLAND: Panic time is here in New England. The offense looked awful, gaining just 271 total yards and turning the ball over three times, including a sack-fumble of Mac Jones that was recovered by Melvin Ingram for a touchdown. Like last year, the defense should keep them in games but their offense needs to improve considerably if they want to make the playoffs. MIAMI: The Dolphins can be buoyed by the performance of the Miami passing game. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 270 yards and a TD and appeared to have a good rapport with Tyreek Hill (8-94-0). Mike McDaniel’s game plan played to Miami’s strengths – short passes to Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and a gutsy call to go for it on fourth-and-7 led to the Dolphins lone TD on offense and resulted in a colourful comment from Hill after the game.
RAVENS 24, JETS 9 BALTIMORE: A workmanlike Week 1 victory for the Ravens which should neither inspire extreme confidence or cause undue concern. JETS: If you run 62 pass plays for 37-year-old QB Joe Flacco, you can’t be surprised by a result like this.
COMMANDERS 28, JAGUARS 22 JACKSONVILLE: There is a lot of work left to do in Jacksonville. They were able to mount a comeback in the second half from 11 points down, but an inconsistent outing from Trevor Lawrence didn’t do much to answer any questions about how he’ll improve on a poor rookie season. If you thought they’d win more than four games this season, feel free to start panicking. WASHINGTON: The Commanders needed a late touchdown drive to beat the moribund Jaguars at home. Carson Wentz showed a little of everything – good counting states (27/41, 313, 4 TD, 2 INT) and some bad decision making on two fourth quarter INTs. This will be a 6-8 win team.
BEARS 19, NINERS 10 I’m taking everything I saw in this game with a grain of salt. How is anyone going to have definitive takes after watching these two teams play a game on a giant Slip N Slide? Second year QBs Trey Lance and Justin Fields both struggled, but anybody would. The best part of this game was when the Bears offense all slid on the field after the final kneel down at the end of the game.
BROWNS 26, PANTHERS 24 CLEVELAND: A good win on the road with their backup QB in a game where the other team had a lot of motivation to beat them. Not only that, but Cade York has a big leg and drilled a clutch 58 yard FG with 8 seconds left to secure the win. If they can be in the 5-6 win range when Deshaun Watson comes back, this is a playoff team, and wins like this one help. CAROLINA: The defense is strong but the offense is very inconsistent. The Panthers had four scoring drives, but on their other 7 drives, they had 15 combined yards. The knock on Baker Mayfield isn’t that he’s a bad quarterback, but he is not an upper echelon player that will make a bad offense good or a good offense great. The defense will win some games for them this year, but they don’t look like a playoff team. Matt Rhule’s seat got a little bit hotter with this loss.
VIKINGS 23, PACKERS 7 GREEN BAY: This was a really bad first week for Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers was uncharacteristically bad against an NFC North opponent, turning the ball over twice and putting up a 22/34, 195 yard, 0 TD line before Jordan Love took over in the fourth quarter. As mentioned leading up to the season, the Packers receiving corps is very inexperienced, and there may be growing pains, especially early. The performance of the defense may have been even more troubling, especially as Justin Jefferson was left wide open on two big receptions, on his way to 184 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. There are parts of this loss that should be concerning, but the defense should be better and likely will be. Green Bay has been here before and usually rights the ship. MINNESOTA: This was a great opening week for Minnesota. Not only did they beat their division rival/nemesis, but all phases of the game looked pretty good. They played like a playoff team in Week 1, though repeat performances are needed before boosting them any higher than a 9-10 win team.
GIANTS 21, TITANS 20 GIANTS: The Giants won the game on a bold two-point conversion late in the fourth quarter. Brian Daboll seemed to have a good gameplan for this game, relying on Saquon Barkley and the run game to lead the offense with a light sprinkling of passing from QB Daniel Jones. If the Giants have any aspirations of playoff football, Barkley must remain healthy and play like he did in Week 1. TENNESSEE: The Titans should’ve won this game. The Giants mounted a valiant comeback from 13 points down, but a muffed punt deep in Titans territory and a missed 47 yard field goal by Randy Bullock with no time left cemented the loss for Tennessee. Run defense is something to watch for here, as the Giants had 238 yards rushing on 7.4 yards per carry but Tennessee is still likely the best team in the AFC South.
CHARGERS 24, RAIDERS 19 LAS VEGAS: Aside from Davante Adams (10-141-1), the Raiders offense was terrible, with Derek Carr throwing three interceptions and Las Vegas being fortunate in not losing any of their three fumbles. Even still, they had a chance to win on the last possession of the game, before turning the ball over on downs. CHARGERS: The Chargers should’ve really put this game away, as Justin Herbert had a very good and efficient game (26/34, 279 yards, 3 TD) and the defense grabbed three interceptions off Carr. Their run game is something to watch though, as they went for 76 yards on just 2.5 yards per carry. Running has been reduced in importance in some NFL offenses (Chargers included), but a lack of a strong run game may hurt them late in games in the future. Even still, this team has the talent to win 11-12 games and be in the hunt of a ridiculously strong division and conference.
CHIEFS 44, CARDINALS 21 KANSAS CITY: Tyreek Who? Patrick Mahomes had a near-perfect game, with a 30/39, 360 yard line with FIVE touchdown passes. Just as impressive was the performance of the defense, which held the Cardinals to 122 yards in the first three quarters, before the Cardinals were able to mount two TD drives in garbage time. The Chiefs are a contender and this game was to remind anyone who might’ve felt otherwise. ARIZONA: After the game, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury bemoaned the team’s lack of effort in practice leading up to the game. That’s disconcerting, especially after news started surfacing about a film study requirement in Murray’s monster contract extension and his reluctance to put in extra work. Being this unprepared for a team of Kansas City’s calibre is asking for a beat down. Both the Cardinals and Packers appeared to be unprepared for Week 1, which is far from good but also correctible. It’ll be up to both teams to put in the necessary work to put in the work and bounce back in Week 2.
BUCCANEERS 19, COWBOYS 3 TAMPA BAY: Much attention was paid to just how bad the Cowboys were in this game that the Buccaneers got little to no scrutiny. The defense was strong, getting past a poor Cowboys offensive line to sack the Cowboys QBs four times, get 7 tackles for losses, and deflect six passes. The Bucs also got a big game from Leonard Fournette (21-127-0), though Tom Brady had a game that was just ok (18/27, 212, TD, INT). The Bucs didn’t have to do much but their red zone efficiency is an area that needs improvement. The Bucs looked like a playoff team not playing at their best. DALLAS: RED ALERT!!! Before Dak Prescott went down with a thumb injury that will cost him 6-8 weeks, the Cowboys offense looked disjointed. Beyond CeeDee Lamb and injured Michael Gallup, the wide receiver options are sparse in Dallas and this game exposed that. Now that Prescott will miss up to two months, the panic button has been pressed. When Dak suffered the broken and dislocated ankle in 2020, they lost 6 of their next 7 games before Andy Dalton was signed and nearly saved their season. The NFC East is better this year (maybe not by much but couldn’t be worse). The defense did just enough to hold Tampa Bay to 19 points, but they will be asked to do much more than that this season. It’s not unfair to predict that this team that was expected to contend for the NFC East title could drop to a 5-6 win team.
SEAHAWKS 17, BRONCOS 16 DENVER: This had to be a disappointing loss, but not a cause for panic. In a division as good as the AFC West and a conference as good as the AFC, all games are meaningful, and the decision to try a 64 yard field goal at the end of the game was met with some… bemusement… by a couple Super Bowl winning Broncos. First time head coach Nathaniel Hackett made the much-criticized call to kick a field goal that was if not outside, then at the very edge of Brandon McManus’s range. Before that, though, two lost fumbles at the Seattle 1-yard line allowed the result to be in question at the end. The Broncos played well enough to win this game but ultimately lost it. The Broncos are still contenders to win the AFC West but losing this winnable game hurts. SEATTLE: In a game that meant a lot to the team and to the 12’s in Seattle, the Seahawks were able to pull off the improbable upset. Geno Smith played adequately as a game-manager QB. He didn’t turn the ball over and was effective in his short and intermediate passes, while the defense bent, but didn’t break against the strong Broncos attack. That said, it still looks like wins will be hard to come by in Seattle this season. Not just in terms of talent, but they also have to play in the tough NFC West and also face the insanely difficult AFC West this season. A win over Russell Wilson may be all they need to be happy this season… and hopefully that’s true, as they still have the outlook of a 3-5 win team.
Welcome to another season of the APY NFL Football Pool!
The pool got off to a late start this season as an extended vacation took the place of the normal preseason organizational activities, but rest assured it’s a go for the 2022 season. This is my formal request for you to join us for another season… and a thank you to those who have already committed in the form of the $20 payment to this season!
ABOUT THE POOL Seasoned veterans can skip this part, but if you’re a new recruit, this is a weekly picks pool with a twist. Everyone makes picks for each of the 272 games of the NFL season*, starting with the first one between the Bills and Rams in Los Angeles, and ending with one of the NFC East games that NBC wants to show us at the end of Week 18. The twist with this pool is that you make confidence picks on up to 4 games per week, or 72 games in the season**. Those confidence picks are the difference makers each season – you get your confidence picks right, you’re near the top of the standings. * – a third of you will not pick all 272 games of the NFL season. ** – you may only select a maximum of 4 confidence games per week, no taking 16 confidence picks in Week 18 for your sanity and mine. Mostly mine.
POOL FEES AND PAYMENT The fee to join the pool is $20, payable before the first Sunday of the season – September 11. Payment can be made by e-transfer or direct deposit, for those with the capability. E-transfers must be sent to mattgouldburnfootball@gmail.com. If you pay via direct deposit, kindly let me know you’ve made the payment so that I may reconcile in my records.
MAKING YOUR PICKS You will receive a spreadsheet each week with the schedule for each week’s games on the Tuesday prior to each week of the season. You will need to provide me with the picks for each game either before it starts (for Thursday, Saturday, or Sunday morning games) or no later than 1:00 PM ET (for the rest). Naturally late selections are not allowed. All picks selections to be sent to me directly at mattgouldburnfootball@gmail.com. The time stamp on the email will be the key to whether the pick is on time or not.
Using the Week 1 schedule as the template, here are the keys to the pick sheet: in green are the pertinent game details. Time of the game and the away and home teams. Basic stuff. The Winner column is where you put your winner and the Conf column is where you add your confidence picks by choosing the 1 in the dropdown. If you’re not confident, leave it blank. The cut-off time is identified in blue on the far right. Miss that cut-off and your pick will not be accepted.
HOW POINTS ARE SCORED In a completely hypothetical scenario, here is how the scoring will work with a four-game excerpt:
For this four game stretch, I would have received 2 total points – winning two for the correct confidence selection of the Rams, losing 1 for the misguided confidence in the Eagles, gaining one for the non-confidence selection of San Francisco, and not gaining or losing any points on Pittsburgh. One important note: if you make more than four confidence picks and neither of us catch it before game time, I will use the first four confidence selections and discard the rest. While I do endeavour to catch all typos, extras, or anything else, there is manual labour to this process so things may get missed (not often but not never). Be diligent in ensuring that your pick submissions are accurate and within the requirements.
PRIZES Generally, prize allocations are confirmed after the first week of the NFL season, when the prize pot is confirmed. Based on the number of members, prizes are usually awarded to the top 3-5 finishers, which other mini-pool prizes also available later in the season. This again is largely contingent on the number of people who sign up though the winner will receive 65-70% of the total purse.
COMMUNICATION Pool communication will be available via two channels: 1. The official website of the APY NFL Football Pool, footballpool.allpurposeyards.com. Bookmark this site, as the pool updates will be updated here first. 2. Email through the official email of the APY NFL Football Pool, mattgouldburnfootball@gmail.com. Every Tuesday, you will receive a recap of the previous week, along with the pick sheet for the following week’s games.
I look forward to seeing you again for the upcoming season – good luck everyone!
Stay tuned for the analysis on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. The second round starts at 7:00 pm ET, but the live updates will probably start around 8:30 pm.
As of the morning of Day 2, here are the total picks made or held by each team:
Ten teams did not make a pick in the first round, and Las Vegas, Miami, and the Rams won’t pick until the third. Both the Dolphins and Rams will make their first picks in the compensatory portion of the third. As of now, one team, Carolina, has the night off. Carolina’s next pick is scheduled to be taken at the back end of the fourth round, 137th overall.
7:08 PM: And now, the start of Round 2, with Tampa Bay officially on the clock! So with the announcements in these and later rounds, we’re going to have a lot of queueing between when the pick is in and when it is announced.
7:15 PM: TAMPA BAY SELECTS LOGAN HALL, DE, HOUSTON! Hall played 3-technique in college at Houston but is expected to be more of a 3-4 DE at the next level. He has very violent hands and can potentially be an interior pass rusher. He should be a rotational player early.
7:20 PM: Minnesota has traded down, sending the 34th pick to the hated Green Bay Packers for the 53rd and 59th overall picks – so an early second for two late seconds.
GREEN BAY SELECTS CHRISTIAN WATSON, WR, NDSU! It might not have been a first rounder, but Christian Watson is the type of talent that Aaron Rodgers will be looking for. At 6’4″ 208, Watson is an imposing presence and he can fly, running a 4.36 40 at the NFL Combine. He is a bit raw, and coming from an FCS program will be taking a big step up in competition, but the ceiling is very high.
7:28 PM: TENNESSEE SELECTS ROGER MCCREARY, CB, AUBURN! McCreary is a press-man cover specialist that has the strength to disrupt routes from NFL-calibre wide receivers. He’s a bit undersized but still has the ability to impact throws on vertical routes.
NEW YORK JETS SELECT BREECE HALL, RB, IOWA STATE! The Jets made a deal with the Giants for the 36th pick and takes the best running back in the draft – Breece Hall from Iowa State! Hall has been a bell cow back in Iowa State with good hands to help out as a receiver. With apologies to Michael Carter, Hall becomes the RB1 with the Jets.
Jets-Giants trade: the Giants give the Jets the 36th overall pick in exchange for the 38th pick and the 146th pick (fourth round). Giants-Falcons trade: the Giants then turn around and deal the 38th pick to the Falcons from the 43rd and 114th picks
7:33 pm: HOUSTON SELECTS JALEN PITRE, S, BAYLOR! After taking Derek Stingley Jr with the third pick, the Texans go back to the secondary and take Jalen Pitre, a versatile safety from Baylor. Pitre played the Star position at Baylor, which is a sort of hybrid between strong safety and linebacker. He has the Football IQ to play the position in the pros, but a little small at the moment. Best suited as an short/intermediate defender in a zone. He’s unlikely to play as a deep/split safety in the Cover 2.
7:38 PM: ATLANTA SELECTS ARNOLD EBIKETIE, EDGE, PENN STATE! Atlanta trades up to 38 to take the dynamic edge rusher Arnold Ebiketie. Ebiketie is a dedicated edge rusher who will need to develop his ability to play the run in the pros. He’ll be mostly utilized as a stand-up rusher but could be a situational pass rusher early in his career. The Falcons desperately need pass rushers (even with Lorenzo Carter), so this fills a real need.
7:42 PM: CHICAGO SELECTS KYLER GORDON, CB, WASHINGTON! With their first pick in the draft, the Bears go for secondary help, taking Kyler Gordon from Washington. Gordon is a strong, athletic, and explosive corner from Washington. He has the ability to play in any scheme, but he does need some work in route recognition at the moment. He has a good shot at playing opposite Jaylon Johnson in Week 1, but might be work in progress. The ceiling is near-infinite.
7:49 PM: SEATTLE SELECTS BOYE MAFE, EDGE, MINNESOTA AND KENNETH WALKER III, RB, MICHIGAN STATE! Seattle double-dips in the Big 10 by taking Boye Mafe to bolster their pass rush and Kenneth Walker for the backfield.
EDITOR’S NOTE: On a break back in 30 minutes
8:34 PM: AND WE’RE BACK
Picks while I was gone: Vikings traded up from 42 to 53 (Vikings also get 122, while the Colts get 77, and 192 to go along with the 53rd pick) MINNESOTA SELECTS ANDREW BOOTH JR, CB, CLEMSON! NEW YORK GIANTS SELECT WAN’DALE ROBINSON, WR, KENTUCKY! Houston trades up to 44, sending the 68th, 108th, and 124th overall picks to the Cleveland Browns! HOUSTON SELECTS JOHN METCHIE III, WR, ALABAMA! This was a shocker BALTIMORE SELECTS DAVID OJABO, EDGE, MICHIGAN!
8:35 PM: NEW ENGLAND SELECTS TYQUAN THORNTON, WR, BAYLOR!
8:42 PM: PHILADELPHIA SELECTS CAM JURGENS, C, NEBRASKA!
8:43 PM: PITTSBURGH SELECTS GEORGE PICKENS, WR, GEORGIA! The Steelers get one of the best wide receivers in the draft at 52, as they take George Pickens from Georgia.
8:44 PM: INDIANAPOLIS SELECTS ALEC PIERCE, WR, CINCINNATI! A run on wide receivers as Alec Pierce, a big possession receiver goes to the Colts. He and Michael Pittman have a lot of similarities, so it will be interesting to see how they mesh.
8:50 PM: KANSAS CITY SELECTS WR SKYY MOORE, WR, WESTERN MICHIGAN!
8:58 PM: DALLAS SELECTS SAM WILLIAMS, EDGE, OLE MISS! Williams is a situational pass rusher at this point as his play against the run needs help. He has good hands and bend/flexibility which will help him as a hand-in-the-ground pass rusher.
TAMPA BAY SELECTS LUKE GOEDEKE, T, CENTRAL MICHIGAN!
ATLANTA SELECTS TREY ANDERSEN, LB, MONTANA STATE!
MINNESOTA SELECTS ED INGRAM, G, LSU! This is a real need-based pick as the Vikings have a gaping hole at RG.
9:19 PM: SAN FRANCISCO SELECTS DRAKE JACKSON, EDGE, USC!
9:20 PM: KANSAS CITY SELECTS BRYAN COOK, S, CINCINNATI!
9:25 PM: BUFFALO SELECTS JAMES COOK, RB, GEORGIA! Cook split carries with Zamir White in Georgia. While he has a similar speed trait as his brother Dalvin, James is a little smaller and does not have the same upside. However, with the Bills, he will have an opportunity to make an impact immediately.
9:27 PM: DENVER SELECTS NIK BONITTO, EDGE, OKLAHOMA! The Broncos use the final pick of the second round to take Nik Bonitto from Oklahoma. Bonitto is a 3-4 stand-up edge rusher who is athletic, flexible, and has strong acceleration – he’s a situational rusher now and would need to bulk up to be a bigger part of the defense outside situational pass rushing.
THIRD ROUND 9:32 PM: JACKSONVILLE SELECTS LUKE FORTNER, C, KENTUCKY The Jaguars add to the interior of their offensive line by taking Fortner.
9:34 PM: MINNESOTA SELECTS BRIAN ASAMOAH, LB, OKLAHOMA Asamoah is a weakside linebacker with explosive speed, is aggressive, athletic in coverage, but lacks technique. With the right tutelage, he can be a top sideline-to-sideline defender.
9:35 PM NEW YORK GIANTS SELECT JOSHUA EZEUDU, G, UNC
9:40 PM: CLEVELAND SELECTS MJ EMERSON, CB, MISSISSIPPI STATE! Emerson is a press-man corner who can play physically
9:42 PM: TENNESSEE SELECTS NICHOLAS PETIT-FRERE, RT, OHIO STATE!
9:45 PM: JACKSONVILLE SELECTS CHAD MUMA, LB, WYOMING! The Jags take Devin Lloyd late in the first and now take Chad Muma with the 70th overall pick. Muma and Lloyd have some similar attributes, in that they are aggressive and strong tacklers. Muma needs a bit of work and the level of competition will increase significantly for them but he can turn into a solid Mike or Sam to go alongside Lloyd (who can also do both)
9:48 PM: CHICAGO SELECTS VELUS JONES, WR/KR, TENNESSEE
9:53 PM: SEATTLE SELECTS ABRAHAM LUCAS, RT, WASHINGTON!
9:55 PM: INDIANAPOLIS SELECTS JELANI WOODS, TE, VIRGINIA!
9:57 PM: ATLANTA SELECTS DESMOND RIDDER, QB, CINCINNATI! The Falcons take the second quarterback off the board, taking Desmond Ridder from Cincinnati. Ridder was a four-year starter and put up big numbers for the Bearcats, taking AAC school Cincinnati to the College Football Playoff. He’s in a pretty good situation here – Mariota will start in 2022 and Ridder will have the chance to start in 2023. Being taken in the third also takes the pressure off being an immediate starter.
10:01 PM: HOUSTON SELECTS CHRISTIAN HARRIS, LB, ALABAMA!
10:07 PM: BALTIMORE SELECTS TRAVIS JONES, DT, UCONN! Travis Jones had a lot of people mocking him into the second round, but falls to the Ravens, who have taken Hamilton, Ojabo, and now Jones as great value (not Great Value) picks.
10:08 PM: INDIANAPOLIS SELECTS BERNHARD RAIMANN, T, CENTRAL MICHIGAN!
10:12 PM: CLEVELAND SELECTS ALEX WRIGHT, DE, UAB!
10:17 PM: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS SELECT J.T. WOODS, S, BAYLOR! Woods can fly, he’s a traditional free safety who should not be expected to contribute to the run defense. He is best as a centre fielder or a split safety in a Cover 2 or 3.
10:18 PM: DENVER SELECTS TE GREG DULCICH, TE, UCLA
NEW YORK GIANTS SELECT CORDALE FLOTT, CB, LSU
ATLANTA SELECTS DEANGELO MALONE, DE, WESTERN KENTUCKY!
10:24 PM: PHILADELPHIA SELECTS NAKOBE DEAN, LB, GEORGIA! The wait is finally over – Nakobe Dean gets selected 83rd overall to the Eagles. A player with first round talent who got flagged for a pec issue drops all the way to the middle of the third.
10:35 PM: TENNESSEE SELECTS MALIK WILLIS, QB, LIBERTY! Tennessee trades up with the Raiders to take Malik Willis, who was getting top 10 hype. The Titans obviously have a settled QB situation for 2022 with Ryan Tannehill, but 2023 is a possibility.
10:40 PM: ARIZONA SELECTS CAMERON THOMAS, DE, SAN DIEGO STATE! The Cardinals take Thomas, a run-stuffing defensive lineman from SDSU. He has a high motor and could be a 5 technique in the pros.
10:44 PM: DALLAS SELECTS JALEN TOLBERT, WR, SOUTH ALABAMA! This is a really good value pick at 88 for Dallas. Tolbert has enough size, speed, and strength to play outside.
10:48 PM: LAS VEGAS SELECTS DYLAN PARHAM, G, MEMPHIS! And the Raiders are finally on the board with the 90th pick they add to their offensive line by taking Dylan Parham from Memphis
10:53 PM: TAMPA BAY SELECTS RACHAAD WHITE, RB, ARIZONA STATE! This might’ve been a bit of a reach.
10:54 PM: GREEN BAY SELECTS SEAN RHYAN, G, UCLA! Rhyan was a left tackle at UCLA but he’ll be a guard in the league due to his shorter arms and issues in pass protection against pro level pass rushers.
10:55 PM: SAN FRANCISCO SELECTS TYRION DAVIS-PRICE, RB, LSU
11:00 PM: CAROLINA SELECTS MATT CORRAL, QB, OLE MISS! The Carolina Panthers trade into the third round and take Matt Corral from Ole Miss! Corral automatically puts himself in the conversation as a starter in Carolina. Whether that’s in his long-term best interests is left to be determined.
11:04 PM: CINCINNATI SELECTS ZACH CARTER, DE, FLORIDA!
11:05 PM: INDIANAPOLIS SELECTS NICK CROSS, S, MARYLAND! Strong tackler, could work in zone but prefers to be in a defense that allows him to go downhill. He has track speed so that combination with the desire to tackle gives the Colts an interesting dimension on blitz packages.
11:09 PM: DETROIT SELECTS KERBY JOSEPH, S, ILLINOIS
11:12 PM: WASHINGTON SELECTS BRIAN ROBINSON, RB, ALABAMA
11:14 PM: CLEVELAND SELECTS DAVID BELL, WR, PURDUE
11:16 PM: ARIZONA SELECTS MYJAI SANDERS, EDGE, CINCINNATI Sanders was listed as a DE in the draft but at 228 lbs, he’s a stand-up pass rusher. He’s a slender but quick and elusive pass rusher who is willing to play the run. If he can get back up to 245-250 he has the potential to be a top player off the edge.
11:19 PM: NEW YORK JETS SELECT JEREMY RUCKERT, TE, OHIO STATE Ruckert is an able receiver but is likely the best blocking tight end in the draft. The Jets signed C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin in the offseason, so the position is pretty crowded now.
11:22 PM: MIAMI SELECTS CHANNING TINDALL, LB, GEORGIA Good value pick here.
11:26 PM: KANSAS CITY SELECTS LEO CHENAL, LB, WISCONSIN Chenal is a tackling machine – strong, tough and powerful. Not the most athletic player and you likely don’t want him in man coverage, but he’s a weapon in the run defense.
11:28 PM: LOS ANGELES RAMS SELECT LOGAN BRUSS, G, WISCONSIN
11:30 PM: SAN FRANCISCO SELECTS DANNY GRAY, WR, SMU
DAY 2 DRAFT ORDER SECOND ROUND 33. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (FROM JACKSONVILLE) – LOGAN HALL, DE, HOUSTON 34. GREEN BAY PACKERS (FROM DETROIT VIA MINNESOTA) – CHRISTIAN WATSON, WR, NORTH DAKOTA STATE 35. TENNESSEE TITANS (FROM NY JETS) – ROGER MCCREARY, CB, AUBURN 36. NEW YORK JETS (FROM NEW YORK GIANTS) – BREECE HALL, RB, IOWA STATE 37. HOUSTON TEXANS – JALEN PITRE, S, BAYLOR 38. ATLANTA FALCONS (FROM CAROLINA VIA NY JETS AND NY GIANTS) – ARNOLD EBIKETIE, EDGE, PENN STATE 39. CHICAGO BEARS – KYLER GORDON, CB, WASHINGTON 40. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (FROM DENVER) – BOYE MAFE, EDGE, MINNESOTA 41. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – KENNETH WALKER III, RB, MICHIGAN STATE 42. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (FROM WASHINGTON VIA INDIANAPOLIS) – ANDREW BOOTH JR, CB, CLEMSON 43. NEW YORK GIANTS (FROM ATLANTA FALCONS) -WAN’DALE ROBINSON, WR, KENTUCKY 44. HOUSTON TEXANS (FROM CLEVELAND BROWNS) – JOHN METCHIE III, WR, ALABAMA 45. BALTIMORE RAVENS – DAVID OJABO, EDGE, MICHIGAN 46. DETROIT LIONS (FROM MINNESOTA) – JOSH PASCHAL, DE, KENTUCKY 47. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (FROM INDIANAPOLIS) – PHIDARIAN MATHIS, DT, ALABAMA 48. CHICAGO BEARS (FROM LA CHARGERS) – JAQUAN BRISKER, S, PENN STATE 49. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – ALONTAE TAYLOR, CB, TENNESSEE 50. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (FROM MIAMI VIA KANSAS CITY) – TYQUAN THORNTON, WR, BAYLOR 51. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – CAM JURGENS, C, NEBRASKA 52. PITTSBURGH STEELERS – GEORGE PICKENS, WR, GEORGIA 53. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (FROM LAS VEGAS VIA GREEN BAY AND MINNESOTA) – ALEC PIERCE, WR, CINCINNATI 54. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (FROM NEW ENGLAND) – SKYY MOORE, WR, WESTERN MICHIGAN 55. ARIZONA CARDINALS – TREY MCBRIDE, TE, COLORADO STATE 56. DALLAS COWBOYS – SAM WILLIAMS, DE, OLE MISS 57. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (FROM BUFFALO) – LUKE GOEDEKE, T/G, CENTRAL MICHIGAN Goedeke was selected as a tackle but he almost certainly slots in as the replacement for now-retired G Ali Marpet. 58. ATLANTA FALCONS (FROM TENNESSEE) – TREY ANDERSEN, LB, MONTANA STATE 59. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (FROM GREEN BAY PACKERS) – ED INGRAM, G, LSU 60. CINCINNATI BENGALS (FROM TAMPA BAY VIA BUFFALO) – CAM TAYLOR-BRITT, CB, NEBRASKA 61. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – DRAKE JACKSON, EDGE, USC 62. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – BRYAN COOK, S, CINCINNATI 63. BUFFALO BILLS (FROM CINCINNATI) – JAMES COOK, RB, GEORGIA 64. DENVER BRONCOS (FROM LA RAMS) – NIK BONITTO, EDGE, OKLAHOMA
THIRD ROUND 65. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – LUKE FORTNER, C, KENTUCKY 66. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (FROM DETROIT) – BRIAN ASAMOAH, LB, OKLAHOMA 67. NEW YORK GIANTS – JOSHUA EZEUDU, G, UNC 68. CLEVELAND BROWNS (FROM HOUSTON TEXANS) – MARTIN EMERSON, CB, MISSISSIPPI STATE 69. TENNESSEE TITANS (FROM NY JETS) – NICHOLAS PETIT-FRERE, RT, OHIO STATE 70. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (FROM CAROLINA) – CHAD MUMA, LB, WYOMING 71. CHICAGO BEARS – VELUS JONES, WR/KR, TENNESSEE 72. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – ABRAHAM LUCAS, RT, WASHINGTON STATE 73. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (FROM WASHINGTON) – JELANI WOODS, TE, VIRGINIA 74. ATLANTA FALCONS – DESMOND RIDDER, QB, CINCINNATI 75. HOUSTON TEXANS (FROM DENVER) – CHRISTIAN HARRIS, LB, ALABAMA 76. BALTIMORE RAVENS – TRAVIS JONES, DT, UCONN 77. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (FROM MINNESOTA VIKINGS) – BERNHARD RAIMANN, T, CENTRAL MICHIGAN 78. CLEVELAND BROWNS – ALEX WRIGHT, DE, UAB 79. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – JT WOODS, S, BAYLOR 80. DENVER BRONCOS (FROM HOUSTON) – GREG DULCICH, TE, UCLA 81. NEW YORK GIANTS – CORDALE FLOTT, CB, LSU 82. ATLANTA FALCONS (FROM INDIANAPOLIS) – DEANGELO MALONE, EDGE, WESTERN KENTUCKY 83. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – NAKOBE DEAN, LB, GEORGIA 84. PITTSBURGH STEELERS – DEMARVIN LEAL, DE, TEXAS A&M 85. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – MARCUS JONES, CB, HOUSTON 86. TENNESSEE TITANS (FROM LAS VEGAS) – MALIK WILLIS, QB, LIBERTY 87. ARIZONA CARDINALS -CAMERON THOMAS, DE, SAN DIEGO STATE 88. DALLAS COWBOYS – JALEN TOLBERT, WR, SOUTH ALABAMA 89. BUFFALO BILLS – TERREL BERNARD, LB, BAYLOR 90. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (FROM TENNESSEE) – DYLAN PARHAM, G, MEMPHIS 91. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – RACHAAD WHITE, RB, ARIZONA STATE 92. GREEN BAY PACKERS – SEAN RHYAN, G, UCLA 93. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – TYRION DAVIS-PRICE, RB, LSU 94. CAROLINA PANTHERS (FROM KANSAS CITY VIA NEW ENGLAND) – MATT CORRAL, QB, OLE MISS 95. CINCINNATI BENGALS – ZACH CARTER, DE, FLORIDA 96. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (FROM LA RAMS VIA DENVER) – NICK CROSS, S, MARYLAND 97. DETROIT LIONS (COMPENSATORY) – KERBY JOSEPH, S, ILLINOIS 98. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (FROM NEW ORLEANS, COMPENSATORY) – BRIAN ROBINSON JR, RB, ALABAMA 99. CLEVELAND BROWNS (COMPENSATORY) – DAVID BELL, WR, PURDUE 100. ARIZONA CARDINALS (FROM BALTIMORE, COMPENSATORY) – MYJAI SANDERS, EDGE, CINCINNATI 101. NEW YORK JETS (FROM NEW ORLEANS VIA PHI, TEN; COMPENSATORY) – JEREMY RUCKERT, TE, OHIO STATE 102. MIAMI DOLPHINS (FROM SAN FRANCISCO, COMPENSATORY) – CHANNING TINDALL, LB, GEORGIA 103. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (COMPENSATORY) – LEO CHENAL, LB, WISCONSIN 104. LOS ANGELES RAMS (COMPENSATORY) – LOGAN PRUSS, G, WISCONSIN 105. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (COMPENSATORY) – DANNY GRAY, WR, SMU
CLOSING THOUGHTS ON THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE DRAFT
1. The league saw what everyone else saw, a lack of top end QB talent Some felt that QB-needy teams in the top 10 would draft a quarterback and that one team, Pittsburgh, would trade up to get a signal-caller. Well, those pundits were partially right. Teams in the top 10 did, in fact, take quarterbacks… in the third round. Desmond Ridder went 74th overall to Atlanta, while Carolina traded back into the third round to take Matt Corral with the 94th pick in the draft. Ridder and Corral certainly have the tools to become starting quarterbacks in the NFL, but both have fine tuning to do before they can do so. It might not matter for Corral, whose head coach is presumably on the hot seat this year and may turn to Corral and his ability to make something out of nothing. Malik Willis, thought by some to be a first round lock went slightly later than that, going to the Tennessee Titans with the 86th pick. This could be a decent landing spot for him, as Tannehill has no guaranteed salary after this season (but does carry $18.8M in dead cap space if cut next offseason). I have doubts that this would be an Alex Smith-Patrick Mahomes situation, as Tannehill will likely believe that he has some good years left in him at 34 years old.
2. If you need wide receivers or secondary help, this is the draft for you. After six wide receivers went in the first 18 picks of the first round, another seven wideouts went in the first 22 picks in the second round… and another four went in the third. Yes for you math majors, that’s 17 wide receivers in the first three rounds, a new record. Meanwhile, four corners, three safeties went in Round 1, another seven corners and six safeties went on Day 2. In both cases, there’s still a lot more talent to be drafted on Day 3.
3. Is what happened to Nakobe Dean due to the injury concern, or a shifting view on middle linebackers? Nakobe Dean’s drop from a mid-first round pick to his selection by the Eagles with the 83rd overall pick, right in the middle of round 3, was potentially down to a number of factors: at 225 lbs, he might be slightly small to be an inside linebacker, he had a medical flag related to a pectoral issue, his tape was great but the production didn’t quite match up. However, he is a sideline-to-sideline menace who can do more or less anything you could ask of from a linebacker – he is a willing and able tackler, he can defend in space, he has explosive athleticism, he’s tough, and uses strong technique. The biggest problem might be that inside linebackers are fading from the game, as teams move to five (or more) man secondaries as a base defense. A player like Dean may be an anachronism in the newer, more pass-happy NFL. Devin Lloyd and Quay Walker were both taken in the first round but Dean’s teammate Channing Tindall and Alabama’s Christian Harris also fell into the third round.
WHO ARE THE PLAYERS TO WATCH IN DAY 3?
With 105 picks to go, there is still a somewhat strong group of players yet to know their new homes in the NFL. Here is a list of who I feel are the best players left in the draft, by position:
QUARTERBACK Sam Howell, UNC Howell was projected to be a first overall picks in some really early mocks last summer, but has found himself slipping into the third day of the draft. Howell saw his passing numbers noticeably regress in his junior year where some of his weakness were exposed by a greatly diminished roster at UNC. He did, however, show his ability to run with the football, with 828 rushing yards and 11 TDs on the ground in 2021. His best case scenario for immediate playing time would be Seattle, who picks fourth in the fourth round. Others: Carson Strong, pocket passer with rocket arm, Nevada; Bailey Zappe, pocket passer with production, Western Kentucky; Chris Oladokun, developmental passer with strong arm, South Dakota State
RUNNING BACK There are still plenty of options available for teams looking at a new running back, some are scheme-dependent or situation-dependent, but can excel with the right fit. Dameon Pierce, Florida Pierce has the tools to be an excellent running back in the NFL – he’s got the burst, the twitchiness, the power, and balance to run the ball outside or in the trenches, and he has a nose for the end zone, amassing 13 rushing touchdowns in 2021 (and three more as a receiver). He’s an able and willing blocker in pass protection, and can hold his own as a receiver. His biggest problem? His production. His average numbers are fine – he had 5.5 yards per carry during his four years at Florida, but he had 329 carries in those four years. Breece Hall, the second round pick of the Jets had 279 carries in his sophomore year alone. He wasn’t injured either – Pierce missed only three games in his time in Gainesville, and played all 25 games over his junior and senior years. A player with these traits and low tread on his tires will be a welcome addition to many teams and he is likely to go early in the fourth round. Pierre Strong, South Dakota State Strong has exception vision and he can read and react to holes and has the agility to move around and through those holes while keeping up his speed. He’s a two-down back at this stage, but can work well in a committee early, with the potential to be a lead back with some work on his receiving ability. Isiah Pacheco, Rutgers Pacheco is a high-energy runner who processes quickly and has the ability to find running lanes. He can create something out of nothing, but can also make the wrong read at times and go for the home run too often when the option isn’t there. He has the attributes to be a three-down rusher but will need work on harnessing himself when needed and work on pass protection. Others: Tyler Allegeier, BYU: zone scheme specialist who has good vision and is an instinctive one-cut runner; Zamir White, Georgia: a power runner who will excel between the tackles, but has injury flags Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M: good agility and vision to locate and run through holes. Very elusive, but sometimes uses elusiveness when power or speed is preferred. Kyren Williams, Notre Dame: a smaller back, but very good receiver who would work best as a “lightning” back or third-down receiving specialist. Abram Smith, Baylor: zone-dependent, but runs with patient, yet decisive approach. More comfortable outside the tackles, has the toughness to contribute in pass protection. Kevin Harris, South Carolina: power runner who is a battering ram between the tackles with a nose for the chains. Tyler Badie, Missouri: undersized, change-of-pace back with good hands. Kennedy Brooks: has good size and vision who is more sudden than fast or powerful. Late round or UDFA pick with upside.
WIDE RECEIVER Khalil Shakir, Boise State: lacks the athletic traits of some of the top wide receivers, but is a great route runner with the ability to create space for himself with outstanding footwork, strength, and understanding of leverage. Will probably be best in the slot but could also be a possession receiver at the next level. Erik Ezukanma, Texas Tech: has the size, speed, ball skills to be a productive possession or slot receiver in the NFL, though he does need work on his route running, especially with the deeper routes in the route tree. Calvin Austin, Memphis: really undersized (5’8, 170) but can fly and has the ability to be an option in the slot or in a system that can design plays that give him the ball on short/underneath passes in space. Bo Melton, Rutgers: good route runner with adequate size, strong football IQ and getaway speed, however, not agile enough to leverage the speed in tight spaces. Kevin Austin, Notre Dame: has the prototypical size, speed, and ball skills of an X receiver in the NFL, though his lack of game reps means he needs a fair amount of development to reach his potential.
Here is the post to go to for the NFL Draft. We’ll go through each of the picks in (sort of) real time, identifying the fit with the team (or lack thereof) for each of the selections in the first round. The draft starts at 8 pm ET and is live from the Caesars Forum in Las Vegas. Eight teams have two first round picks as of 7:45 pm ET on Draft Day: Detroit (2,32), Houston (3,13), NY Jets (4,10), NY Giants (5,7), Philadelphia (15, 18), New Orleans (16,19), Green Bay (22,28), and Kansas City (29,30). Conversely, eight teams have zero picks in the first this year: Chicago, Denver, Cleveland, Miami, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, San Francisco, and the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
8:09 PM ET: Roger Goodell comes out to his regular ovation (BOOOOOOOO) and bring out Marcus Allen, Derek Carr, Darren Waller… and Ice Cube to hype up the fans. Lots of boos for the Raiders too. Must be a lot of Niners fans in attendance.
8:13 PM: Jags are on the clock. Looks like they got 10 minutes. This might be a long night.
Travon Walker goes first overall to Jacksonville. Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
8:18 PM: JACKSONVILLE SELECTS DE/EDGE TRAVON WALKER FROM GEORGIA. Travon Walker is a hulking 6’5″ 272 lb defensive lineman from the historically excellent Georgia Bulldogs defense. A lot of pundits identified Walker as an edge rusher, but with the Jaguars expected to run a 3-4 base defense, we should expect Walker to be the 5-tech with his hand on the ground. Walker is a punishing tackler and very strong run defender, but his pass rush is a work in progress. If he develops the pass rush the way the Jaguars are hoping, he will be a menacing inside rusher in the mould of JJ Watt. The question is, was Walker a reach?
DETROIT SELECTS DE AIDAN HUTCHINSON FROM MICHIGAN. Following the Jaguars selection of Travon Walker, the Lions must’ve run their selection to the podium. Hutchinson had a monster 2021 season, finishing as the Heisman Trophy runner-up with an astounding 16.5 sacks. Hutchinson is tailor-made for the Lions’ new Base 4-3 defense as he excels up front, and though he was standing up in some pass rushing situations, he is best as the bookend in a 4-3. Hutchinson has the highest floor of all the pass rushers. HOUSTON SELECTS CB DEREK STINGLEY JR FROM LSU Houston takes a corner that was one of the best cornerbacks in college football during his freshman year at LSU in 2019, but endured two years of uneven play and injuries. Lovie Smith runs a Cover 2 which runs a lot of zone, and while Stingley is expected to be just fine as a zone defender, the one question in his game is his willingness to contribute to stopping the run/tackling. He is a massive upgrade at the position for the Texans in either respect. NEW YORK JETS SELECT CB AHMAD “SAUCE” GARDNER FROM CINCINNATI Another team that really needed to address the secondary and did so with one of the two most talented corners in the draft. As with the Stingley pick, a zone team takes a press-man cover corner with its pick. It should be interesting to see how Saleh works Gardner into his defensive scheme. One thing to the Jets advantage is that Gardner excels in defending the deep vertical routes which are a big need for corners in a Seattle Cover 3 defense.
8:41 PM: Catching up with the action, arrived just in time for the fifth overall pick from the NEW YORK GIANTS, who select DE/EDGE KAYVON THIBODEAUX FROM OREGON. That’s now five defensive picks in a row to start the draft. Not shocking, but the top offensive tackles look to be dropping. Thibodeaux, the pass rusher from Oregon, was a near-consensus first overall pick in many mock drafts before the 2021 college football season started, however, a hot and cold 2021 season raised some questions about Thibodeaux’s motor. Thibodeaux is an outgoing person with many varied interests who should thrive in the bright lights of New York City.
8:50 PM: CAROLINA SELECTS IKEM EKWONU FROM N.C. STATE! “Ickey” Ekwonu is a strong run defender who could use work in his pass protection, which means playing as a LT might not happen immediately, but he could be an immediate starter at LG, which is also an area of need for Carolina. The Panthers have a real good RT, Taylor Moton, who is specifically a right tackle, so don’t expect Ekwonu to start there.
8:55 PM: THE NEW YORK GIANTS SELECT OT EVAN NEAL FROM ALABAMA! With Andrew Thomas having a strong year at the LT spot, the question is which one plays on the blind side and which one plays on the right. Neal has experience in both spots, so we could see him play RT in year one.
9:02 PM: ATLANTA SELECTS WR DRAKE LONDON FROM USC! The WR-needy Falcons take the highest-ceiling WR in the draft, Drake London. London is NFL-ready as a Z (possession receiver) and should fit in well with TE Kyle Pitts as a dynamic 1-2 punch in the passing game for Marcus Mariota.
9:09 PM: SEATTLE SELECTS LT CHARLES CROSS FROM MISSISSIPPI STATE! If there was ever a need for a team, it is offensive line for the Seattle Seahawks. Cross is regarded by many as the pass protecting offensive lineman in the draft and has a good chance to start right away at left tackle for the Seahawks. Cross played in Mike Leach’s extremely pass-happy offense in Starkville and might be a work in progress in run blocking at the NFL level, but definitely a blue chip pick for a team that desperately needed help at the position.
9:16 PM: THE NEW YORK JETS SELECT WR GARRETT WILSON FROM OHIO STATE! The Jets make a strong addition to another area of need by taking Wilson, likely the best all-around receiver in the draft. Wilson can play X or Z and will be an upgrade on either spot (with apologies to Corey Davis). He should start right away.
9:17 PM: Our first trade! WASHINGTON TRADES THE 11TH OVERALL PICK TO NEW ORLEANS. The Saints already traded with the Eagles for an additional first round pick and have now moved up in the draft to the 11th overall pick. The Saints traded the 16th, 98th, and 120th picks to Washington for the right to move up five spots.
9:24 PM: NEW ORLEANS SELECTS WR CHRIS OLAVE FROM OHIO STATE! Chris Olave is a true X receiver that will pair nicely with another Buckeye alum, WR Michael Thomas. Olave is a fast receiver but the question on him is whether he has much in the way of elusiveness or would he be best as more of a pure vertical receiver.
9:26 PM: After no trades in the top 10, each of the next two picks are dealt. Minnesota trades their 12th overall pick to their division rival Detroit Lions. The Lions sent the 32nd, 34th, and 66th picks to the Vikings, their next three scheduled selections. The Lions pick next at number 97.
9:31 PM: DETROIT SELECTS JAMESON WILLIAMS, WR, ALABAMA! The Lions get in on the WR run by taking Jameson Williams. Williams is probably the fastest receiver of the first rounders. He is explosive and can give you a lot of value after the catch. His knock was essentially tearing his ACL in the National Championship game, which might cost him the first month of two of his rookie season. The Lions will be pretty bad in 2021, so there is no real rush to have him in the lineup. He will be a true #1 receiver if he heals the way he should.
9:41 PM: Another trade! The Texans were due to make the 13th pick, but have traded it to the Eagles for the 15th, 124th, 162nd, and 166th picks, so the Texans get a third pick for the fourth round and two picks in the fifth round.
PHILADELPHIA SELECTS NT JORDAN DAVIS FROM GEORGIA! Jordan Davis was a monster in the middle for Georgia. Despite participating in less than 40% of the defensive snaps for Georgia last season, he was given Heisman consideration. He’s got great agility for a nose but his primary job is as a dominant run-stuffer in the middle. He’s definitely a two-down player but a great player to have for those run downs. The Ravens at 14 were almost certain to take Davis, so the Eagles needed to make this move to get their guy.
9:47 PM: BALTIMORE SELECTS S KYLE HAMILTON! Hamilton was getting top 5 (and even #1 overall) consideration before the NFL Combine. He ran a poor time in the 40 (4.59) and his stock dropped a bit, but this was a surprising drop. Hamilton is a hybrid who can rush the passer, defender deep as a free safety, can defend tight ends (at 6’4″ 220 lbs he has the size to compete too), or be a run-stopping strong safety. The Ravens
9:51 PM: HOUSTON SELECTS KENYON GREEN, G, TEXAS A&M! The Texans take one of the highest-rated guards in the draft, Green is a road grader, but should be versatile enough to be an effective zone blocker in the Texans blocking scheme. The Texans had many needs and this pick definitely addressed a big one in the interior of their offensive line. He’s NFL-ready and is, frankly, a significant upgrade over either the left or right guard, but would expect him to start at LG this year.
9:57 PM: WASHINGTON SELECTS JAHAN DOTSON, WR, PENN STATE! Now the sixth wide receiver goes in the top 17 to the Commanders. Dotson might have the best hands in the draft and has the ability to play inside or outside. However, his size probably prevents him from being a true X receiver but he fills a need in the slot.
9:59 PM: THE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS SELECT ZION JOHNSON, G, BOSTON COLLEGE! So a real trend in the draft – pass rushers and corners went early, then the offensive tackles, then the big run on wide receivers, and now the interior linemen on both sides of the ball are flying off the shelves. With the 18th pick, the Chargers take Zion Johnson from Boston College, a big road grader addition to the offensive line. He was a tackle at BC, but he’s better in a phone booth and the shift over to RG should serve him (and Justin Herbert) well. Might be a bit of a risk in the zone blocking scheme.
A.J. Brown is now a Philadelphia Eagle following a draft day trade. AP Photo
10:08 PM: A HUGE TRADE – the Eagles trade the 18th pick and a third to the Titans for WR A.J. Brown! Brown and the Titans were having a contract dispute, so it makes sense from that perspective, but a big win-now move for the Eagles in a position of need. The Titans also receive the 101st pick from the Eagles, a comp pick at the end of the third round.
TENNESSEE SELECTS TREYLON BURKS, WR, ARKANSAS! So the Titans take Brown’s replacement with this pick, a player that Burks was directly compared to throughout the draft process. On tape, Burks is a punishing Z receiver that was largely the only real receiving option for Arkansas, so he can excel with any and all sorts of SEC coverages. His testing season was awful though, and that likely caused his stock to drop from the low to high teens.
10:14 PM: NEW ORLEANS SELECTS TREVOR PENNING, LT, NORTH DAKOTA STATE! With LT Terron Armstead leaving the Saints to Miami, the Saints draft his replacement, Trevor Penning, a mauler from North Dakota State. The question on him will be how quickly can he adapt to the NFL game since he played in FCS – and that is a valid concern.
10:19 PM: PITTSBURGH SELECTS KENNY PICKETT, QB, PITTSBURGH! The Steelers takes the draft’s first QB and goes for the NFL-ready floor of Kenny Pickett. Pickett doesn’t have the flashy projection of Malik Willis, but should challenge for the starting job right away. Pickett has played for five seasons at Pitt at Heinz Field, so there is a lot of familiarity on both sides of the equation.
10:25 PM: Yet another trade – the Chiefs move up to 21, as the Patriots trade down. The Patriots get the 29th, 94th (third rounder), and 121st (fourth rounder).
KANSAS CITY SELECTS TRENT MCDUFFIE, CB, WASHINGTON! McDuffie (5’11” 193) is a taaaad undersized but excels in press-man coverage and is an avid tackler. The Chiefs have run an aggressive defensive which requires their corners to play man, so this is a really good fit. He could end up being as good or better than Stingley or Gardner and could play immediately. The pressure will be on though, as the Chiefs need him to start more or less immediately
GREEN BAY SELECTS QUAY WALKER, ILB, GEORGIA Walker gets picked ahead of his teammate Nakobe Dean and Utah MLB Devin Lloyd, which is interesting, but Walker could have the higher ceiling (I’m big on Lloyd but can see the tools in Walker).
Arizona trades the 23rd and 100th picks to Baltimore for WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown! A surprising trade but a pretty good one for Baltimore. They get a first and late third for a decent but inconsistent WR, while Arizona gets… yet another wide receiver…? Baltimore then turns around and sends the 23rd pick to Buffalo for the 25th and 130th picks. So
BUFFALO SELECTS KAIIR ELAM, CB, FLORIDA! The Bills move up two spots from 25 to 23 and select Kaiir Elam, a corner from Florida that specialized in zone defense. This fills a position of need regardless of whether CB Tre’Davious White is ready Week 1 as White recovers from his torn ACL. He can get overmatched in man.
10:44 PM: DALLAS SELECTS TYLER SMITH, RT, TULSA! Smith played left tackle at Tulsa but is best suited to play on the right side in the NFL. He’s a powerful blocker who excels in the run game and has the potential to be a real good pass blocker, but is not quite there yet. Luckily, RT is a position of need in Dallas. He’s a bit of a hothead at time, and there is a fine line between being a nasty blocker and going too far and committing penalties. The Cowboys will love the aggressiveness but will want to harness it.
10:52 PM: BALTIMORE SELECTS TYLER LINDERBAUM, C, IOWA! Centres don’t go early, but Linderbaum is what you’d expect from an offensive lineman from Iowa, a strong offensive lineman with a wrestling background. Linderbaum is a bit undersized and has short arms but if he gets his hands on defensive linemen, he will be a handful to deal with.
10;58 PM: The Jets move back into the first round, getting the 26th overall pick from the Tennessee Titans. They also receive the 101st pick (that the Titans got in the Philadelphia trade) in exchange for the 35th (second round), 69th (third), and 163rd (fifth) picks
THE NEW YORK JETS SELECT JERMAINE JOHNSON, DE, FLORIDA STATE! Jermaine Johnson II is a power rusher/run stuffing specialist from Florida State. Johnson moved around a bit in college and took advantage of the extra year of eligibility to vault himself into first round consideration. He’s a 4-3 DE which should be a good fit in the Jets defense, though he does overlap with DE John Franklin-Myers in terms of his out-of-the-box abilities.
11:07 PM: Jacksonville follows the Jets lead and trades back into the first round, getting the 27th pick from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs trade back six spots to 33 and also receive the 106th (fourth round), and 180th picks (sixth).
JACKSONVILLE SELECTS DEVIN LLOYD, MLB, UTAH! And what a pick the Jaguars make! Lloyd had some top 15 projections but ends up dropping to 27. Lloyd is a do-it all linebacker who is a tackling machine both in coverage and in stopping the run. He’s versatile enough to rush the passer add value as a pass rusher or play sideline-to-sideline in coverage. He’s a three-down linebacker who will contribute immediately. The one knocks is that his top-end speed is not as fast as you’d hope but his anticipation makes up for at least some of it.
11:15 PM: GREEN BAY SELECTS DEVONTE WYATT, DT, GEORGIA! The Packers go back to Georgia to take interior lineman Devonte Wyatt. Wyatt didn’t quite get the attention that Jordan Davis got, but he was also a monster on that ridiculous Georgia d-line (that also saw Travon Walker go #1 overall). His calling card is his quickness, as he has the ability to use his agility to beat zone blockers in the run game and can be a factor as an interior pass rusher; however, he might get overpowered by NFL guards unless he adds some size/strength. Wyatt is a three-technique at the NFL level but could also contribute as a 3-4 DE.
11:21 PM: NEW ENGLAND SELECTS COLE STRANGE, G, CHATTANOOGA The Pats go a bit off the board to take an FCS guard who has the versatility to play at either guard position or centre. Of course, as with Penning earlier, there will likely be a learning curve that limits his readiness. His play strentgh
11:22 PM: KANSAS CITY SELECTS GEORGE KARLAFTIS, DE, PURDUE Karlaftis is a power rusher with a relentless motor who had his best stats in the 2019 season. He’s also a good run stopper from the DE position. He’s a good fit for KC as he is best suited to play in a 4-3 base. If he can play the way he played in 2019, he could step in and start right away for the Chiefs.
11:31 PM: CINCINNATI SELECTS DAXTON HILL, FS, MICHIGAN Hill is a versatile member of the secondary who can play free safety or slot corner in man or zone schemes. Interestingly, the Bengals, at least presently, have a good free safety and slot corner in Jessie Bates (franchise tagged by Cincinnati but yet to sign his tender) and Mike Hilton. Will the Bengals trade either of their established players or wait a year for Hill to mature?
11:34 PM: MINNESOTA SELECTS LEWIS CINE, SS, GEORGIA The Vikings use the final pick of the first round on Lewis Cine, a physical safety who excels in the box. This definitely raises questions regarding the future of their incumbent strong safety Harrison Smith, who has been with the team since 2014. Cine is well suited to be a strong safety but doesn’t hold much positional versatility, as he is ill-suited to be a free safety and not big enough to be a passing down linebacker. He’s a thumper though, and he’ll be a big part of the Vikings run defense.
FIRST ROUND PICK ORDER 1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – TRAVON WALKER, DE, GEORGIA 2. DETROIT LIONS – AIDAN HUTCHINSON, DE, MICHIGAN 3. HOUSTON TEXANS – DEREK STINGLEY, JR, CB, LSU 4. NEW YORK JETS – AHMAD “SAUCE” GARDNER, CB, CINCINNATI 5. NEW YORK GIANTS – KAYVON THIBODEAUX, EDGE, OREGON 6. CAROLINA PANTHERS – IKEM “ICKEY” EKWONU, OT, N.C. STATE 7. NEW YORK GIANTS (FROM CHICAGO) – EVAN NEAL, OT, ALABAMA 8. ATLANTA FALCONS – DRAKE LONDON, WR, USC 9. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (FROM DENVER) – CHARLES CROSS, OT, MISSISSIPPI STATE 10. NEW YORK JETS (FROM SEATTLE) – GARRETT WILSON, WR, OHIO STATE 11. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (FROM WASHINGTON) – CHRIS OLAVE, WR, OHIO STATE 12. DETROIT LIONS (FROM MINNESOTA) – JAMESON WILLIAMS, WR, ALABAMA 13. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (FROM CLEVELAND VIA HOUSTON) – JORDAN DAVIS, NT, GEORGIA 14. BALTIMORE RAVENS – KYLE HAMILTON, S, NOTRE DAME 15. HOUSTON TEXANS (FROM MIAMI VIA PHILADELPHIA) – KENYON GREEN, G, TEXAS A&M 16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (FROM INDIANAPOLIS VIA PHILADELPHIA AND NEW ORLEANS) – JAHAN DOTSON, WR, PENN STATE 17. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – ZION JOHNSON, G, BOSTON COLLEGE 18. TENNESSEE TITANS (FROM NEW ORLEANS VIA PHILADELPHIA) – TREYLON BURKS, WR, ARKANSAS 19. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (FROM PHILADELPHIA) – TREVOR PENNING, LT, NORTH DAKOTA STATE 20. PITTSBURGH STEELERS – KENNY PICKETT, QB, PITTSBURGH 21. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (FROM NEW ENGLAND) – TRENT MCDUFFIE, CB, WASHINGTON 22. GREEN BAY PACKERS (FROM LAS VEGAS) – QUAY WALKER, ILB, GEORGIA 23. BUFFALO BILLS (FROM ARIZONA VIA BALTIMORE) – KAIIR ELAM, CB, FLORIDA 24. DALLAS COWBOYS – TYLER SMITH, RT, TULSA 25. BALTIMORE RAVENS (FROM BUFFALO) – TYLER LINDERBAUM, C, IOWA 26. NEW YORK JETS (FROM TENNESSEE TITANS) – JERMAINE JOHNSON, DE, FLORIDA STATE 27. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (FROM TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS) – DEVIN LLOYD, MLB, UTAH 28. GREEN BAY PACKERS – DEVONTE WYATT, DT, GEORGIA 29. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (FROM SAN FRANCISCO VIA MIAMI AND KANSAS CITY) – COLE STRANGE, G, CHATTANOOGA 30. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – GEORGE KARLAFTIS, DE, PURDUE 31. CINCINNATI BENGALS – DAXTON HILL, S, MICHIGAN 32. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (FROM LA RAMS VIA DETROIT) – LEWIS CINE, S, GEORGIA
IMMEDIATE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROUND ONE
Malik Willis was not selected in the first round. Who will take him in the second? Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
1. Malik Willis is still available After some rumours had him going as high as second overall, Malik Willis is still available. The second round is definitely not a stretch for a QB like Willis, who comes from the independent FBS school Liberty and will require some development. The most interesting development concerning Willis was that the Steelers – a team that was said to be very high on him and possibly willing to trade into the top 10 to get him – decide to go local and take Pitt QB Kenny Pickett with their selection at 20. You could see teams like the Giants at 36, Seahawks at 40 and 41, or Falcons at 43 re-assess their options at the position as we go further along, though if a team really wants him, my guess is they’ll trade up. The other question is whether those teams (and others) are punting on QB this year and looking forward to the crop of QB talent in 2023.
2. Trades! Trades! Trades! After the teams with the first 10 picks heading into draft day did not make a move, trades went fast and furious for the rest of the round. In the end, nine trades were made on draft night, including those of two wide receivers: A.J. Brown went from Tennessee to Philadelphia (and signed a 4-year, $100 million contract!!!) for a first and a third, while Marquise Brown went from Baltimore to Arizona for a first and a late third. These trades seemed to underscore a recent trend, that top tier wide receivers can easily fetch first rounders – and maybe also receivers a little under that tier. If San Francisco is interested in trading Deebo Samuel, the haul will need to be astronomical if the Browns each got a first and third.
Lamar Jackson isn’t happy with the Marquise Brown getting traded / Twitter: @Lj_era8
3. Georgia HC Kirby Smart got all the free publicity he could ever need Those who follow college football, including high calibre prep prospects, knew that the Georgia Bulldogs defense was historic, leading the university to its first national championship since 1980, but with five Dawgs going in the first round, those recruits also know that Georgia develops first round talent. It all started with the first overall pick, with toolsy DE Travon Walker going to the Jacksonville Jaguars, becoming the first defensive player to go first overall since DE Myles Garrett did in 2017. NT Jordan Davis was next to go, at 13 to Philadelphia, then the Packers took two Dawgs – ILB Quay Walker at 22 and DT Devonte Wyatt at 28, and rounded up with SS Lewis Cine going to the Vikings with the final pick of the round. Georgia routinely finishes near the top of the recruitment ratings, given their standing in the prospect-rich state of Georgia, and the south in general, but Smart has turned this potential into dominant play, which will serve him well as he battles the soon-to-be 15 other SEC teams for talent, with Texas and Oklahoma to join the conference in time for the 2025 football season.
4. This draft is abundant in reaches and drops Travon Walker had a late first round grade prior to the testing/Combine season, while Kyle Hamilton had a top 5 grade. On Day 1 on the NFL Draft, Walker went first and Hamilton went 14th. While the Hamilton drop was surprising, there were other big drops in the draft: Jermaine Johnson was thought to be a fringe top 10 pick and went to the Jets at 26 (many had him going there at 10), Ickey Ekwonu and Evan Neal were expected to go early – and still did, going 6th to the Falcons and 7th to the Giants, respectively – while Willis and Georgia LB Nakobe Dean surprisingly weren’t selected at all. These results may not be too surprising after all: this draft is deep in terms of NFL-calibre talent but light in terms of franchise-changing players. At least that’s how it seems right now. Biggest reaches? Jahan Dotson at 16 to Washington and Cole Strange at 29 to New England stand out as the biggest. Dotson, while a very productive receiver at Penn State, has size limitations that may restrict him to the slot at the next level. He had some buzz around in the early second but got the middle pick of the first round. Strange, a guard at FCS school Chattanooga with some intriguing tools went to the Patriots, a full round (or more) earlier than projected. However, Bill Belichick does not agree with this assessment. I’m certain that many see myself and many Twitter wags as better talent evaluators than the greatest coach of all time, so we’ll obviously be proven right in the end.
All Purpose Yards’ coverage of the NFL Draft will continue with Day 2 tomorrow, where the second and third round picks will be selected. Hope to see you there!
Coach: Ron Rivera Offensive Coordinator: Scott Turner Defensive Coordinator: Jack Del Rio
Offensive scheme: Scott Turner runs a largely spread offense that relies heavily on getting playmakers the ball in space. The team generally relies on getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hands quickly, using short passes, but also leveraging Terry McLaurin to stretch the field. Washington uses a lot of run-pass options (RPOs) and rely on the quick, shifty Antonio Gibson to make reads and evade the defense behind a solid offensive line.
Defensive scheme: Washington runs a 4-2-5 as a base defense, with a defensive line that is smaller but very athletic, and a secondary that plays press man coverage, and clearly defined free and strong safeties.
The Commanders (doesn’t roll off the tongue yet… just got used to say WFT), as of April 25th, own six picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, but no picks in the third or fifth rounds. Washington swapped second round picks and sent their third round pick to Indianapolis in the Carson Wentz trade Commanders Draft Picks:
Round
Overall Pick
Value (JJ)
Value (RH)
Notes
1
11
2
47
From Indianapolis (Carson Wentz trade)
4
113
6
189
7
230
7
240
From Philadelphia via Indianapolis (Carson Wentz trade)
Total Draft Points: Jimmy Johnson model: Rich Hill model:
About Draft point models The first model for assigning a point value to draft picks was designed by Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson during his time with the Dallas Cowboys. The valuations are designed to be used as a benchmark when determining the value of draft picks being traded between teams. The values are not hard coded and teams may have different valuations based on need or organizational philosophy. The Rich Hill model was derived, at least in part, due to a differing philosophy of pick value by Patriots coach Bill Belichick. As you may see in the chart above, the revised model puts an added emphasis on early picks and smooths out the value later on in the draft.
What will the Commanders do at the draft? Washington made a move in the offseason, trading their third, a conditional second (or third) next year, and a pick swap in the second round with the Colts for beleaguered QB Carson Wentz. This opens up a number of options for the Commanders with respect to their early picks, with wide receiver being the most likely option early in the draft. Tight end and linebacker will also be areas of emphasis in this draft.
Roster Analysis The Commanders have a decent, but very thin roster, with strengths in the trenches on both sides of the ball and potential strength in the secondary, provided there is health among the starting unit. Some of that depth eroded this offseason, with longtime RG Brandon Scherff, DT Matt Ioannidis, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, and DT Tim Settle, among others, heading to new destinations. Apart from the Wentz trade, the Commanders were very quiet, only bringing in starting LG Andrew Norwell from the Jaguars, and reserve DE Efe Obada from Buffalo.
Depth Charts Quarterback Starter: Carson Wentz Reserves: Taylor Heinicke Expected Draft Action: Depth. The Commanders have attempted to solve their QB issues by acquiring Wentz from the Colts (whether it actually does solve the issue is another question), though they currently only have two quarterbacks on their roster. It seems likely that Washington will either draft a QB late or sign a UDFA to fill the third QB spot. Potential Fit: EJ Perry, Brown; Brock Purdy, Iowa State; Cole Kelley, Southeastern Louisiana
Running Back Starter: Antonio Gibson Reserves: JD McKissic, Jaret Patterson, Jonathan Williams, Reggie Bonnafon, Alex Armah FB Expected Draft Action: Depth. The Commanders have a well-defined bell cow back – Gibson finished sixth in rushing yards (1037) in 2021 and the fourth-most carries (258) – and a running back that is employed almost exclusively on third-down, JD McKissic. Jaret Patterson, a rookie last season, is the reserve. After that, the depth thins quickly. Potential Fit: D’vonte Price, FIU; Isiah Pacheco, Rutgers; Bam Knight, NC State; Sincere McCormick, UTSA; Keaontay Ingram, USC; Jerrion Ealy, Ole Miss
Wide Receiver Starters: X Terry McLaurin, Z Cam Sims, Slot Curtis Samuel Reserves: X Dyami Brown, Antonio Gandy-Golden; Z Kelvin Harmon, Marken Michel; Slot Dax Milne Expected Draft Action: Possession receiver and depth. The Terry McLaurin contract situation complicates things here, but this is a team in need of depth at the wide receiver position. Out of the reserves, only Dyami Brown has any real potential to be a featured part of the offense (and he may get the spot opposite McLaurin either way) and Samuel is coming off an injury-riddled season where he appeared in only five games and even that seemed to be a stretch. Given the needs of the team, taking a WR at 11 might be their best bet, especially if it’s Drake London. Otherwise, they’ll need depth, whether it’s in the draft or in the free agent market. Potential fit: Z Drake London, USC; Treylon Burks, Arkansas; Alec Pierce, Cincinnati; Erik Ezukanma, Texas Tech; David Bell, Purdue Slot Khalil Shakir, Boise State; Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky; Calvin Austin, Memphis; Bo Melton, Rutgers
Tight End Starters: Logan Thomas Reserves: John Bates, Sammis Reyes, Dylan Cantrell Expected Draft Action: Depth/future starter. The Commanders let Ricky Seals-Jones walk in free agency and are hoping (more than expecting) that Logan Thomas can have a bounce-back season after tearing his ACL late in the 2021 season. He is expected to be ready for the start of the season, but a 31 year old coming off an ACL injury may not be the type of basket you wish to put all your eggs in. My projections are based on getting a player that is more of an in-line/Y TE, but they could also go for a replacement for Thomas, such as Greg Dulcich from UCLA or Isaiah Likely from Coastal Carolina. Projected fits: Cade Otton, Washington; Trey McBride, Colorado State; Jelani Woods, Virginia; Jeremy Ruckert, Ohio State; Daniel Bellinger, San Diego State; Isaiah Likely, Coastal Carolina; Chase Allen, Iowa State;
Offensive Line Starters: LT Charles Leno, LG Andrew Norwell, C Chase Roullier, RG Wes Schweitzer, RT Samuel Cosmi Reserves: T Saahdiq Charles, Cornelius Lucas; G Beau Benzschawel, Shaq Calhoun, Nolan Laufenberg, Zack Bailey; C Tyler Larsen, Keith Ismael, Jon Toth Expected Draft Action: None. It seems odd to advocate NOT taking an offensive lineman, but this unit is expected to be above-average, even with the departure of longtime RG Brandon Scherff to Jacksonville. Cosmi was drafted in the second round last season and stepped right in to do a good job at RT. Charles Leno Jr came in as a free agent from Chicago and performed well at the other bookend spot. When Scherff had injury issues last season, Schweitzer stepped in and performed admirably, which made the decision to part with Scherff a lot easier. When LG Ereck Flowers was surprisingly cut in March, Washington picked up Andrew Norwell in free agency, and Roullier is one of the better centres in the league. Saahdiq Charles is a serviceable reserve that has the versatility to play tackle or guard, and Larsen and Ismael are more than capable backups on the interior.
Defensive Line Starters: DE Chase Young, Montez Sweat; 3T Jonathan Allen; NT Daron Payne Reserves: DE Efe Obada, James Smith-Williams, Casey Toohill, Bunmi Rotimi, Will Bradley-King, Shaka Toney; Jalen Jelks; 3T Tyler Clark; NT Daniel Wise, David Bada Expected Draft Action: Depth. One of the rare teams that runs a consistent four man front, has one of the best defensive line units, at least on paper, of any team in the league. Allen and Payne are stalwarts and have the added advantage of being strong pass rushers from the inside. Before Young got hurt, he and Montez Sweat were one of the more dynamic pass rushing pairs in the league (even if Young wasn’t getting the sacks he got in his dominant rookie season). This unit, however, is in dire need of depth, especially after losing key reserves Matt Ioannidis and Tim Settle in free agency. Potential Fits: DE Alex Wright, UAB; Zach Carter, Florida; Micheal Clemons, Texas A&M, Tyreke Smith, Ohio State 3T: Thomas Booker, Stanford; Kalia Davis, UCF NT: Jayden Peevy, Texas A&M; DJ Davidson, Arizona State; Otito Ogbonnia, UCLA
Linebackers Starters: WLB Jamin Davis, MLB Cole Holcomb Reserves: WLB David Mayo, De’Jon Harris; MLB Khaleke Hudson, Milo Eifler Expected Draft Action: Depth. Jamin Davis had his struggles as the MLB in the Washington defense last season, and it appears that the solution from Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio is to switch the positions for Holcomb, who has positional versatility, and Davis, so that Davis plays on the weakside. This may aid in Davis’ development as he can be more instinctive without the pressure of the defense’s leadership role. Most of all, the team needs depth. Mayo has some NFL experience, but the rest of the linebacker corps is very green or special teamers only. Potential fit: Aaron Hansford, Texas A&M (MLB/WLB), Zakoby McClain, Auburn (WLB), Jake Hansen (MLB/SLB), Terrel Bernard, Baylor (WLB/FS), JoJo Domann, Nebraska (WLB/SS)
Cornerbacks Starters: William Jackson III, Benjamin St-Juste, Kendall Fuller Reserves: Danny Johnson, Corn Elder, Troy Apke Expected Draft Action: Depth. Injuries helped derail the seasons of Jackson (his first in Washington) and St-Juste (his first in the league), but the Commanders are hopeful of bounce-back seasons for both corners in the 2022 season. Along with slot corner Kendall Fuller, Washington has the talent to be strong in the secondary. Johnson and Elder are suitable reserves, but the Commanders should be looking at boosting their depth. Potential fits: Jalyn Armour-Davis, Alabama; Alontae Taylor, Tennessee; Joshua Williams, Fayetteville State; Roger McCreary, Auburn; Tariq Woolen, UTSA
Safeties Starters: FS Bobby McCain, SS Kamren Curl Reserves: FS Jeremy Reaves, SS Darrick Forrest Expected Draft Action: Depth. With the departure of Landon Collins from the team following the season, the strong safety job goes to Kamren Curl, who is a more natural fit for the position, while the free safety duties will likely be undertaken by Bobby McCain, with Kendall Fuller taking the role on occasion. There is a total lack of depth at the strong safety position, where the team may look to the draft to fill the role. Don’t discount the possibility of a hybrid being taken, such as JoJo Domann from Nebraska, Jalen Pitre from Baylor, or Tycen Anderson from Toledo. Potential fit: Pitre, Anderson, Domann; Smoke Monday, Auburn; Yusuf Corker, Kentucky; Delarrin Turner-Yell, Oklahoma
