Another week, another win for the Philadelphia Eagles, this time over the cross-state rival Pittsburgh Steelers1, as the league’s only undefeated team heads into the halfway point of the season with a Thursday nighter in Houston2. Presuming the two touchdown favourites take care of business on Thursday, the Eagles would be 8-0 and looking at the back half of the schedule. With the surviving members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins looking on with champagne stocked up, here’s a look at the Eagles remaining ten games to see where their banana peel might be:
Week 9: at Houston (1-5-1). Current odds: Eagles -13.
Week 10: vs Washington (4-4). First game in 2022: Eagles 24, Commanders 8
Week 11: at Indianapolis (3-4-1)
Week 12: vs Green Bay (3-5)
Week 13: vs Tennessee (5-2)
Week 14: at NY Giants (6-2)
Week 15: at Chicago (3-5)
Week 16: at Dallas (6-2). First game in 2022: Eagles 26, Cowboys 17.
Week 17: vs New Orleans (3-5)
Week 18: vs NY Giants (6-2)
As of right now, the only game the Eagles would realistically be an underdog in is the Christmas Eve game in Dallas, while the Week 14 game against the Giants would likely be a pick ’em if the teams continue at the same pace.
From likeliest to least likely, here’s where I think Philly may lose:
1. Week 16 at Dallas: The Cowboys spotted the Eagles a 20-0 lead before the Cowboys clawed back the deficit, making it 20-17 just after the start of the fourth quarter. Philly answered with a touchdown in the fourth to put the game away. The Cowboys have the closest thing to a complete team on Philly’s schedule and the return of Dak Prescott has re-opened big play capabilities that they didn’t have with Cooper Rush. If the results go their way, the Cowboys may still be in the hunt to win the division as well, so there is expected to be a lot at play here.
2. Week 14 at NY Giants: Under Brian Daboll, the Giants have completely turned around their fortunes from past years, with the team relying on a stout defense and a lot of Saquon Barkley to get them to 6-2. Their passing attack leaves a lot to desire but two cracks at the Eagles will be litmus tests for this team.
3. Week 13 vs Tennessee: After starting of very poorly, the Titans have reeled off five wins in a row behind Derrick Henry, who has four 100-yard rushing games in a row, including a 219 yard, 2 TD performance against the Texans last week. The best approach for the Titans in general is to feed Henry, and keep the ball out of the Eagles playmakers’ hands and wear down Philly’s defense is going to be even more crucial in this game. This will also be A.J. Brown’s first game against his former team – this may work on both sides: the Eagles won’t get caught up in the potential trap game due to Brown’s extra motivation, while the Titans will be seeing this as a revenge game, as Brown agitated for a departure from the team this offseason.
4. Week 12 vs Green Bay: When speaking of a trap game, you usually don’t think of the Packers as being that kind of team. However, this season has been a disaster for the Cheeseheads, as Matt LaFleur’s Packers have already lost more games this season than any other season in LaFleur’s five years with the team. The Packers showed some signs of life against the Bills, and ran for over 200 yards against one of the league’s best defenses, so we may see a path forward for them as a sort of smashmouth running team (like the Titans).
5. Week 18 vs NY Giants: If they’re still undefeated at this point, the Giants’ January visit will be the last thing standing between the Eagles and an undefeated season, so the Eagles and Giants would both be expected to go all-out here. If not, the Eagles will likely play their reserves as the division and a first round bye will be nearly assured with their tiebreaker over the Vikings and potentially Cowboys.
6. Week 15 at Chicago: There are a lot of elements of a trap game here: this game is the second game of a three game road trip, the other two games are against hated division rivals New York and Dallas, the Bears are coming off a Week 14 bye, the weather is iffy at the best of times in Chicago in December, and the Bears represent the fifth straight game against an opponent with a strong run game. The Bears themselves have trouble stopping the run, but if they can get ahead or at least keep it close, they can control the tempo using Montgomery (if he’s still there), Herbert, and Fields.
7. Week 10 vs Washington: The Eagles dominated the Commanders on their way to a 24-8 victory that really was a lot less of a contest than the scoreline indicates (the Commanders scored a garbage time TD right at the 2 minute warning of the fourth quarter). You can come to your own conclusions as to whether the Commanders are a better team with Taylor Heinicke at QB than Carson Wentz (Heinicke is 2-0 this season as a starter) but the team is also expecting to get Chase Young back by this game so life will be a little more difficult for Jalen Hurts than it was in Week 3.
8. Week 11 at Indianapolis: The Colts really haven’t been able to get things going this season, struggling on both sides of the ball in 2022. Their win over the Chiefs looks to be an anomaly, but it did happen – mostly due to horrific special teams play by Kansas City. Something similar would need to happen here though.
9. Week 17 vs New Orleans: Coming off a shutout of the Raiders, you may be wondering why the Saints are near the bottom of this list, but this is still an inconsistent team – they looked dominant against the Raiders last week, but looked completely lost the week before against Arizona. Whether it’s Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton at QB, mistakes will not be acceptable on the road against one of the best teams in the league.
10. Week 9 at Houston: No. The Texans allow 186 rushing yards per game. In Week 8, their offense mustered just 161 total yards, which included a 90 yard drive deep in garbage time.
1 – Did you know during World War II, the Eagles and Steelers joined forces to become the Steagles?
2 – Fittingly enough, the Houston Astros are facing the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series this week, including Game 5 in Philadelphia, competing directly against this game.
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RECAP AND STANDINGS
In the pool this week, Jerome was our top scorer with 17 points. Our defending champ is looking to regain his 2021 form and get back into contention for the prizes.
Overall, Donna P remains our leader with 93 points, five points ahead of second-place Randy, who has 88. Darryl is in the bronze medal position with 86, while Adam and Fred are just one point back in a share of fourth place.
APY STANDINGS
This is such a detailed and insightful post. I really appreciate the effort you put into explaining everything so clearly.