When you are a struggling team, how early is too early to make a change at head coach? Every team (and their expectations) are different: the Detroit Lions are 1-3, but did anyone really expect them to do well? They could make a change at the end of the season, but firing Dan Campbell mid-season, especially this early, would be a curious move. The Patriots and Steelers are unlikely to fire their head coaches, unless something off the field were to force their respective hands (not implying, just saying Belichick and Tomlin aren’t getting axed). Josh McDaniels, Lovie Smith, and Dennis Allen are first year head coaches, so canning any of them after four games would be a very curious move – even if you think someone, say Dennis Allen, was a mistake, that mistake will not be fixed one month into the season.
Of the sub-.500 teams in the NFL, this leaves: Frank Reich of the 1-2-1 Colts, Ron Rivera of the 1-3 Commanders, and Matt Rhule of the 1-3 Panthers.
Frank Reich is in his fifth year as a head coach in Indianapolis, and has a 38-30-1 record, including two trips to the playoffs. Their drop-off this season from past season has seemed especially stark due to the poor play of their offensive line, and new QB Matt Ryan turning into a turnover machine (five INTs and nine fumbles in four games!). Reich has earned the benefit of the doubt but the Colts offense (Reich’s specialty) has looked awful. There hasn’t been much heat on his seat, and the Colts are just a half-game back of the Jags and Titans in the dreadful AFC South, but if they continue on this run, the chatter may start… but definitely not yet.
Ron Rivera is in his third year as head coach in Washington, with a 15-22 as head of the Commanders (91-85-1 counting his tenure in Carolina). Washington made the playoffs in Rivera’s first season, an improbable result given their 7-9 record, Rivera needing to undergo in-season radiation and chemotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma, and the return of Alex Smith from his horrific leg injury. Since then, the now Commanders have struggled to a 7-win season in 2021 and a 1-3 record to start 2022. The Commanders have really struggled on both sides of the ball this year, ranking 10th-last in yards in both offense and defense, suffered a -6 turnover margin, and have looked relatively poor in all phases. Rivera and the management team have done a lot to fix up the off-the-field issues plaguing the organization, a rot that included its erstwhile owner Dan Snyder, though the on-the-field issues persist. Rivera has attempted to manage expectations with the fanbase, indicating that the team is aware that they are in a rebuild. This would also indicate that Rivera is relatively safe from the firing line – he does hold a significant amount of sway within the organization and would likely be heavily involved in the rebuild – but the angry fanbase will need to be satisfied at some point, and this team doesn’t look capable of providing it.
Matt Rhule is in his third year as head coach of Carolina, amassing a 11-26 record. While Rhule is a defensive specialist and the Panthers have been good on that side of the ball, he and management have not figured out the offense at all. The offense is last in the league in total yards and has scored just six touchdowns in the first four games. The Panthers only won five games last year due to their top-3 defense. Now that the defense is middle of the road (18th in total yards allowed), the team’s shortcomings are even more evident. The Panthers have won three of their last 18 games and they have the Niners, Rams, and Bucs up next on the schedule. Rhule’s seat is surface of the sun hot, it would be easy to see them getting to 1-6 and very difficult to see him making it through that stretch unscathed.
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RESULTS
This was a better week for the pool, the average score topped 12 points for the first time this season. Leading the way were David, Mark, Adam, and Des, all with 16 points apiece.
Anthony remains at the top of the standings after four weeks, with 46 points, two points ahead of Donna P and Marcus. Randy is in fourth with 43, while David, Paul, The Predictor, and Keville are all tied for fifth with 42.
Here are the standings
