To paraphrase a quote from Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver, momentum is only as good as next week’s game. The NFL is unlike other sports in that a one-in-seventeen sample is a lot more significant than a one-in-eighty-two sample in the NHL or NBA, or a one-in-one-hundred-sixty-two sample in MLB. However, a one-game sample is hardly definitive, and the next one-game sample can be completely different from the previous. We tend to go right along with the trends, shifting our opinions week-over-week, or quarter-over-quarter, or even minute-over-minute.
Think about what we thought of these teams, at any given time and what we think about them now:
Is Minnesota the team that beat up on a top contender in the NFC in Week 1, or are they the team that got totally dominated by Philly in Week 2?
Conversely, is Green Bay the team with the directionless team we saw in Minneapolis, or the strong-defensive minded team we saw in Week 2 against Chicago?
Things can even change quarter-over-quarter: in Baltimore, the Ravens looked to be ready to coast, with a 35-14 lead over the Dolphins heading into the fourth quarter. Then the floodgates opened and the Dolphins mounted an improbable comeback, scoring four touchdowns in the final frame to win 42-38. Now we’re all exalting Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa as the second coming.
Minute over minute? The Browns were seconds away from having a big jump on the rest of the AFC North – they were about ready to move to 2-0 after a Nick Chubb touchdown run with just inside 2:00 left, but then the Jets (YES, NEW YORK JETS) scored two touchdowns (and recovered an onside kick) in the final 90 seconds to pull off a crazy 31-30 win. Is Chubb at fault for not falling down at the 1 or 2 yard line instead of going in for that score? Or maybe, just maybe, the Browns could’ve done more to seal the victory on defense and special teams. What do you think, Grant Delpit and Denzel Ward? No need to answer gentlemen, and sorry if I interrupted your Sunday stroll in the park.
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RESULTS AND STANDINGS
All that to say that perceptions can change quickly and it’s never too early to change your minds, nor is it too late to wait for a bigger sample size to formulate your opinions. When you look at the pool standings, you see Nigel and Tyler at the top. In the first week, Nigel and Tyler both put up 8 points which, on the face of it, wasn’t terrible. It was better than the average, just not among the top players. This week though, they both amassed a season-high 15 points, to take the lead at 23 points, along with Jason R. If we continue the analogy, Jason is like Tampa Bay, putting up two solid performances in Week 1 and 2 and keeping his spot in the lead. Gary, Fred, and Michelle are right on their trails, with 22 points of their own, and Terry, Steve, Marcus, and Ronda round out the top ten with 21 points. By the end of next week, we may be looking at a whole new leaderboard and people who we thought were out of it, sneak back in. All that said, credit to Nigel, Tyler, and Jason for their strong showings after 2 weeks and good luck to all of you as the season wears on.
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