In this article, I’ll do a summary on each division and team within it, identifying a key talking point and something to watch for from each team as the season progresses. There’s been a lot to unpack so let’s get right into it, starting with today’s piece on the AFC East.
AFC EAST
Overview: after two weeks, the members of the AFC East have a combined record of 6-2, with one of those losses being in the division. The Bills and Dolphins have flown out of the gates with two straight wins, while the Patriots and Jets both secured away wins against AFC North opposition in week two. The outlook on the Bills was strong, and we were aware that Miami had potential – after two weeks, the Bills are still the favourite to win the division (and perhaps win it all), but with Miami’s offense looking strong, the Dolphins are closing the gap. New England looks like a .500-level team that will need its defense to shine week-in, week-out, while the Jets are still on their long trail to respectability. The Jets miracle comeback against the Browns helps in the standings and will also help morale, but should they be expected to improve in the hyper-competitive AFC?
BUFFALO BILLS (2-0), next opponent: at Miami.
KEY TALKING POINT: The Bills might have the league’s most dominant offense AND defense. Buffalo followed its dominant opening night win over the defending champion Rams with an evisceration of conference nemesis, Tennessee. No team has scored more points on offense, and only the Bucs have allowed fewer points on defense. They are third in total yards on offense, second best in yards allowed on defense (on 3.6 yards per play, a half yard less on average than anyone else). They’d made all their field goal attempts and two of their three punts were muffed by the receiving team. This is a scary team that should be in everyone’s conversation of Super Bowl favourites.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Can injuries be the one thing that slows Buffalo down? The Bills went into their second game without DT Ed Oliver, DT Tim Settle and WR Gabe Davis, and lost CB Dane Jackson to a serious-looking neck injury, S Micah Hyde to another potential neck injury, and LB Matt Milano and DT Jordan Phillips also left the game early. Fortunately, Jackson had full movement in his extremities, but there is a concern for a neck fracture, which would put him out of the lineup for a while. The Bills went with two rookies, Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam, as their outside cornerbacks after the injury. While the Bills play zone almost exclusively on defense, this could cause problems, especially if Hyde also needs to miss time with his injury.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-0), next opponent, vs Buffalo
KEY TALKING POINT: Tua has been unlocked. After two tumultuous seasons, it appears that Tua Tagovailoa’s skillset has been optimized by new coach Mike McDaniel, along with his speedy receiving targets Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tua exploded in the second half comeback against the Ravens, throwing for 469 yards and six touchdowns. Both Waddle and Hill had 11 receptions and over 170 yards and 2 TDs apiece on Sunday. The Dolphins have schemed both Waddle and Hill (especially Hill) to get the ball in space on short throws, which has also opened up deeper pass plays for the two. At the moment, the Dolphins are overly reliant on Waddle and Hill, as no other player has more than 48 receiving yards, but this is a tough duo to stop.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Dolphins pass rush and passing defense look shaky. The Dolphins did get to Mac Jones, with a Brandon Jones strip sack resulting in a defensive touchdown in Week 1, but the Dolphins have just two sacks and are allowing a league-worst 9.0 yards per pass attempt (and a league-worst 6.9 yards per play on defense). Their two sacks and 10.9% pressure rate on passes are also among the league’s worst. While Tua and the Dolphins were able to perform magic on offense, Lamar Jackson had his way with their defense – they’re not alone in having trouble containing Jackson, but the conference is full of dynamic offenses. Trouble now could mean trouble later too. This weekend’s matchup with the Bills will be another yardstick for the Dolphins as the Bills defense is unlikely to be as forgiving as the Ravens but just as explosive on offense, if not more so.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-1), next opponent: vs Baltimore
KEY TALKING POINT: Much like the New England team that made it to the postseason last year, the Patriots success will be predicated by its defense. Their defense has allowed the fourth-fewest yards in the league, which includes what appears to be a high-octane Dolphins attack, and 34 points, which is in the top 10 (and includes a defensive score by Miami in Week 1). Their six sacks put them in the top ten in the league, and they are a team that uses pressure, blitzing 30% of the time. If the Patriots are going to challenge for a playoff spot this year, they’ll need more of the same.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Can the offense turn it around? Matt Patricia and Joe Judge being assigned to run the Patriots offense cause head scratches around the league, and that befuddlement has only increased after the first two weeks. They are in the bottom 10 in total yards on offense and have only visited the opposing red zone four times in two games (only Cowboys, Texans, and Seahawks have been there fewer times than New England). Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson is a decent 1-2 punch at RB but the receiving corps lacks talent, which may put a ceiling on New England’s potential. Bill Belichick and his staff will be tasked with getting the most out of this unit this season, though there is a lot of skepticism surrounding whether it is possible.
NEW YORK JETS (1-1), next opponent, vs Cincinnati
KEY TALKING POINT: Passing-heavy offense with Joe Flacco. In their first two games, the Jets threw the ball a league-high 104 times, 15 times more than second place Cincinnati (89). At least part of that is circumstance – they fell behind early against Baltimore and drew up 62 pass plays in that game. It will be interesting to see how this changes, if at all, when Zach Wilson is ready to come back from his meniscus tear – likely in October. Garrett Wilson has impressed early, catching 12 passes for 154 yards and 2 TDs in his first two NFL games.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Will the Jets improve on 2021? With their improbable win over the Browns, the Jets stand at 1-1 and have won as many games on the road as in all of last year. The Jets were second-worst in the league in point differential at -194 but did have a couple notable wins over the Bengals and Titans. That said, there’s some good new talent here, Wilson, Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner to name a few, and this roster will take some time to fill out and grow. This year looks to be more of a transition year but improving on the 4-win season a year ago should be achievable.