We have past the last quarter pole and are now in the stretch run of the NFL season – with just four weeks to go, and all the byes have been finished, we now have a pretty good sense of who is good, who is bad, and who is just OK.
So what do we know? There is still a strong upper class in the NFC, with the four division leaders and the Rams in the VIP section, and a significant middle class, most of whom are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. In the AFC, we have two teams that are in the elite category, then a bunch of really good teams just content to beat themselves up week after week, then a definite lower class with teams that are not just uncompetitive, but also wallowing in their own filth.
In this edition, I’ll give you the rankings first, then some insight on each team’s to-the-minute playoff chances, teams they hold tiebreakers on, and how each team should fare the rest of the way.
| Rank | Team | Record | Division | Div Rk | Playoff Rk | Wk 9 Rk | Last 4 Weeks |
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 10-3 | NFCS | 1st | N3 | 5 | vs NO, at CAR, at NYJ, vs CAR |
| 2 | Green Bay | 10-3 | NFCN | 1st | N1 | 6 | at BAL, vs CLE, vs MIN, at DET |
| 3 | Arizona | 10-3 | NFCW | 1st | N2 | 4 | at DET, vs IND, at DAL, vs SEA |
| 4 | New England | 9-4 | AFCE | 1st | A1 | 15 | at IND, vs BUF, vs JAX, at MIA |
| 5 | Kansas City | 9-4 | AFCW | 1st | A3 | 13 | at LAC, vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN |
| 6 | LA Rams | 9-4 | NFCW | 2nd | WC1 | 1 | vs SEA, at MIN, at BAL, vs SF |
| 7 | Dallas | 9-4 | NFCE | 1st | N4 | 2 | at NYG, vs WFT, vs ARI, at PHI |
| 8 | LA Chargers | 8-5 | AFCW | 2nd | WC1 | 11 | vs KC, at HOU, vs DEN, at LV |
| 9 | Baltimore | 8-5 | AFCN | 1st | A4 | 7 | vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT |
| 10 | Tennessee | 9-4 | AFCS | 1st | A2 | 8 | at PIT, vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU |
| 11 | San Francisco | 7-6 | NFCW | 3rd | WC2 | 17 | vs ATL, at TEN, vs HOU, at LAR |
| 12 | Indianapolis | 7-6 | AFCS | 2nd | WC2 | 19 | vs NE, at ARI, vs LV, at JAX |
| 13 | Buffalo | 7-6 | AFCE | 2nd | WC3 | 3 | vs CAR, at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ |
| 14 | Cleveland | 7-6 | AFCN | 2nd | N | 18 | vs LV, at GB, at PIT, vs CIN |
| 15 | Cincinnati | 7-6 | AFCN | 3rd | N | 12 | at CIN, vs BAL, vs KC, at CLE |
| 16 | Minnesota | 6-7 | NFCN | 2nd | N | 22 | at CHI, vs LAR, at GB, vs CHI |
| 17 | Washington | 6-7 | NFCE | 2nd | WC3 | 27 | at PHI, at DAL, vs PHI, at NYG |
| 18 | Pittsburgh | 6-6-1 | AFCN | 4th | N | 14 | vs TEN, at KC, vs CLE, at BAL |
| 19 | Denver | 7-6 | AFCW | 3rd | N | 21 | vs CIN, at LV, at LAC, vs KC |
| 20 | Philadelphia | 6-7 | NFCE | 3rd | N | 24 | vs WFT, vs NYG, at WFT, vs DAL |
| 21 | Miami | 6-7 | AFCE | 3rd | N | 29 | vs NYJ, at NO, at TEN, vs NE |
| 22 | Atlanta | 6-7 | NFCS | 2nd | N | 23 | at SF, vs DET, at BUF, vs NO |
| 23 | New Orleans | 6-7 | NFCS | 3rd | N | 9 | at TB, vs MIA, vs CAR, at ATL |
| 24 | Seattle | 5-8 | NFCW | 4th | N | 16 | at LAR, vs CHI, vs DET, at ARI |
| 25 | Las Vegas | 6-7 | AFCW | 4th | N | 10 | at CLE, vs DEN, at IND, vs LAC |
| 26 | Carolina | 5-8 | NFCS | 3rd | N | 20 | at BUF, vs TB, at NO, at TB |
| 27 | NY Giants | 4-9 | NFCE | 4th | N | 28 | vs DAL, at PHI, at CHI, vs WFT |
| 28 | Chicago | 4-9 | NFCN | 3rd | N | 25 | vs MIN, at SEA, vs NYG, at MIN |
| 29 | NY Jets | 3-10 | AFCE | 4th | N | 26 | at MIA, vs JAX, vs TB, at BUF |
| 30 | Detroit | 1-11-1 | NFCN | 4th | N | 32 | vs ARI, at ATL, at SEA, vs GB |
| 31 | Houston | 2-11 | AFCS | 3rd | N | 31 | at JAX, vs LAC, at SF, vs TEN |
| 32 | Jacksonville | 2-11 | AFCS | 4th | N | 30 | vs HOU, at NYJ, at NE, vs IND |
The Top Tier – Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Arizona
The top three seeds in the NFC, Green Bay, Arizona, and Tampa Bay, also hold the league’s best records. Out of the three, the defending champions appear to have the most complete team at the moment, and the easiest run-in to the playoffs (imagine that bloodbath in New Jersey in Week 17). The 10-3 Buccaneers are still somewhat vulnerable defending the pass, but all other phases of the game are championship level, though the strong passing attacks for the other contenders in the NFC will pose a challenge. Expected end of season record: 14-3, top seed in NFC.
Green Bay (10-3) is the one seed in the NFC, following the Cardinals loss at home to the Rams, and appear to be getting close to full health – their elite corner, Jaire Alexander, is potentially a week or two away from returning from his shoulder injury and they’re hopeful of getting edge rusher Za’Darius Smith back from a back injury before the start of the playoffs. With Aaron Rodgers enjoying another great season and RB AJ Dillon having a breakout season, the Packers could be the team to beat in the NFC. Both the Bucs and the Packers should wrap up their divisions this weekend. The Packers hold a tiebreaker over all teams except Dallas on conference record, and they have head-to-head wins over the Rams and Cardinals. Expected end of season record: 13-4 (14-3 if Lamar Jackson is unable to play this weekend), second seed in NFC.
Arizona (10-3) managed to navigate the ankle injury to Kyler Murray and remain at the top of the ultra-competitive NFC West, though with last night’s loss to the Rams, finishing first in the division is now no longer a certainty. The Cardinals are a pass-first team that can run the ball, though at 4 YPC, not especially efficient at it. On the other end, the Cardinals are strong against the pass but can be beaten on the ground. Arizona holds the divisional tiebreaker over the Rams, as long as they do not lose at home to Seattle in Week 18, the Packers hold a tiebreaker over them and Tampa Bay presently holds a strength of victory tiebreaker. Arizona plays in Dallas in Week 17, which will determine that tiebreaker. Expected end of season record: 13-4. (Loss at Dallas Week 17), 3rd seed in NFC.
The Next Best Tier – New England, Kansas City, LA Rams, Dallas
Both New England and Kansas City are riding long winning streaks (seven for the Pats and six for the Chiefs) and look to be the best of a strong group of contenders in the AFC. The Rams and Cowboys are teams that struggled in the third quadrant, but have the talent to beat any team on any given weekend.
The 9-4 Patriots are coming out of their bye as the hottest team in football. While limping out to a 2-4 start, the knives were coming out for the Patriots, though their completely revamped team just needed time to get situated, as they were able to break off this long win streak through their impressive defense, a solid run game, and a good enough passing attack. This Pats team looks a lot like the teams from the early 2000s, where the defense dominated and the offense just had to do enough to win. Rookie QB Mac Jones already looks like a seasoned vet behind an exceptional offensive line, even if they didn’t need him in their Week 13 win over the Bills. No other AFC team has fewer than three losses in the conference – the Patriots have one. The Pats also hold straight up tiebreakers over the Titans and Bills (though that could change following their Boxing Day game in Foxborough). Expected end of season record: 12-5. (Loss at Miami in Week 18)
It’s not always pretty, but the Chiefs have rebounded from their slow start to be 9-4 in the AFC and looked like a monster team in their 48-9 destruction of the Raiders in Week 14. However, up to that point, it has been the defense that has carried them – the addition of Melvin Ingram to their pass rush and, more importantly, moving Stone Cold Chris Jones back to the interior of the defensive line has invigorated the defensive unit as a whole. The Chiefs still rank in the bottom 10 in overall defense so progress may be hard to see, but are one of the top teams in QB pressures and they’ve allowed just 48 points over the past five weeks. The Titans and Ravens hold tiebreakers over KC and KC’s 4-4 record in the AFC is behind nearly every other team. Thursday’s game against the Chargers in LA will likely determine who wins the AFC West (the Chargers would be tied and sweep the Chiefs if they win, so a definitely must-win for KC). Expected end of season record: 12-5 (Loss at Denver Week 18),
When they’re on, the 9-4 Rams are the most dangerous team in the league. Despite losing Robert Woods for the year, they have the top receiver in the league statistically in Cooper Kupp, they picked up Odell Beckham Jr for nothing midseason, and have other reliable options in second year WR Van Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee. The run defense is one of the league’s best, while Jalen Ramsey might be the best cover corner in the league. Much has been said about the impact that Matthew Stafford has made on the offense and of course DT Aaron Donald is a disruptor in the middle of the defensive line (last night’s game was a prime example of that). However, winning the division will be a challenge for them, which means a road game in the wild card round, likely at Dallas. So the Rams will need to do things the hard way in the postseason. The Rams need to win their remaining division games and have Arizona lose to Seattle to have a claim for the division, but strength of victory is not in their favour. The Rams hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bucs but they lost to the Packers. They hold a divisional tiebreaker over San Francisco, so if they are one game ahead of the Niners in Week 18, I expected them to put forward minimal effort. Expected end of season record: 11-6 (Losses at Baltimore and home to San Francisco), 5th seed in NFC.
The 9-4 Cowboys are an interesting case study. They have a very strong defense, led by two young players that are having outstanding seasons, second-year CB Trevon Diggs and rookie LB Micah Parsons. Their offense is a finely tuned machine, with perhaps the besr receiver trio in the league (now fully back and healthy) and a strong two-headed rushing attack (though Ezekiel Elliott does appear to be battling a knee injury). They have three games left in the division and one against Arizona, and as long as they don’t lose to division foes twice, they are more or less locked into the division and a likely four seed. However, they do have some bad losses on their resume, namely at home to the Raiders and Broncos (the latter of which locks less bad by the week). The Cowboys lost to Tampa in Week 1, so do not hold that tiebreaker, though their 7-1 conference record is superior to everyone else’s, which gives them the advantage over Arizona and potentially Green Bay if it comes to that. Expected end of season record: 12-5 (loss at Philly, Week 18), 4th seed in NFC.
Good teams who own their own destiny – LA Chargers, Baltimore, Tennessee, San Francisco
Teams fighting for their playoff lives (AFC version) – Indianapolis, Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver
Teams fighting for their playoff lives (NFC version) – Minnesota, Washington, Philadelphia, Atlanta, New Orleans
Teams that need a miracle – Miami, Seattle
Teams that are within a game of the wild card, but don’t have a chance – Carolina, Las Vegas
Teams that are bad – NY Giants, Chicago, NY Jets
Teams that are awful – Detroit, Houston
Tire fire – Jacksonville