Any site that deals with professional football is required to have power rankings. I expect that I’ll do one every quarter – while the season is no longer split nicely into 4 weeks of 4 games, the schedule will be after Weeks 4,9, and 13… with an end of season primer.
For these rankings, I don’t go solely on record, but by who I think would win in a matchup between the two teams on a neutral field. Teams that have actually defeated teams get extra consideration. However, this is not universally true, as you’ll see.
Before I get into it, a few words on the surprise teams, both good and bad:
First the good:
1. Cincinnati: I had the Bengals pegged as a 4 win team, as their defense and offensive line appeared to be big enough problems that the positives (Joe Burrow, safeties, skill position players) would not be enough to overcome it. That was an incorrect assumption. The Bengals offense has taken off this year – Ja’Marr Chase was ridiculed for dropped passes in preseason and camp, but flipped the switch on as the season started and has already compiled 4 touchdowns to go with his 17 catches for 297 yards. The offensive line has been adequate as well (a big step up from god-awful) – especially at the bookends where free agent signee Riley Reiff has provided a good counterbalance to Jonah Williams.
2. Chargers: the offense looks hard to stop – there is no sophomore jinx with Justin Herbert, who has played excellent football again this season, but the big difference is the defense. More specifically, the big change is the return to health of S Derwin James. There may not be a defensive player as impactful as James, a man who, according to his coach, plays five different positions on the defense, and is generally tasked with defending against the opposition’s tight end – no small feat with Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and the emerging Noah Fant within the division. When not assigned to the tight ends, James excels both in the box and as a free safety.
Now to the disappointments:
1. Miami – the Dolphins are only one win worse than expected but could have made the next step towards playoff contention. Instead, the offensive line is a mess, their starting QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered a rib injury in Week 2, and the defense – coach Brian Flores’ speciality – has underperformed. We’re only 4 weeks in but things do not look good in MIA.
2. Kansas City – are the Chiefs the latest team to be impacted by the hangover suffered by the Super Bowl losers? I’m not sure I’d go that far, but the defense has struggled, especially against the pass, and even moreso against opposition tight ends. There is plenty of time to rectify their issues (a certain man-coverage specialist CB has just come available), and the team should still easily make the playoffs, but this team isn’t the dominant force we expected.
POWER RANKINGS
1. Arizona (4-0, predicted 2-2) – the Cardinals have played an impressive first four games, blowing out the Titans in Nashville and beating up the Rams in Inglewood. Their games against lesser opposition leaves something to be desired – they needed a missed FG in the final seconds to beat Minnesota at home and a Trevor Lawrence implosion to beat the Jags – but the Titans and Rams represent two marquee victories. Their challenges continue in the second quarter of the season – they play the Niners and Packers at home, and the Niners and Browns on the road in this stretch.
2. Buffalo (3-1, predicted 3-1) – the Bills stumbled badly in a Week 1 loss to the Steelers but rebounded nicely, beating their next three opponents by a combined score of 118-21. Those wins were over the Dolphins, WFT, and Houston, but you still have to win those games. The offense, and Josh Allen in particular, appear to have heard the wakeup call and are back to their dominant selves. Heading into the bye, the Bills travel to Kansas City and Tennessee. After the bye, they get Miami at home and then go to Jacksonville.
3. LA Rams (3-1, predicted 4-0) – heading into Week 4, the Rams would’ve been at the top of the list. The trade for Matthew Stafford has expanded the offense vertically, making the Rams a scary proposition for most teams, especially with their punishing defense. Their win over Tampa Bay was more dominant than it looked, while their wins over Chicago and Indianapolis – two teams that looked better on paper than they’ve been this year – were strong wins. However, the Cardinals laid waste to those claims and put up 37 points in the Week 4 matchup, knocking the Rams down a peg or two. The Rams play a tough Thursday night matchup at Seattle this week, then get as much of a break as the NFL allows with games at the Giants, home to the Lions, then at Houston, then finish the second quarter with a tougher game at home to the Titans.
4. Tampa Bay (3-1, predicted 3-1) – the Super Bowl champs continue along with a strong start to the season, including a win at Tom Brady’s old home at Foxborough. The pass rush and offense have both been strong points of the team, though injuries have decimated the Bucs’ secondary, contributing to the league’s worst pass defense. Richard Sherman was signed off the street one week ago and will be forced into being the team’s top corner as Jamil Dean, Carlton Davis, and Antoine Winfield Jr all nurse injuries. Tampa Bay gets Miami at home, then at Philly, at home to the Bears, and a trip to the Superdome to take on the Saints in Week 8.
5. Baltimore (3-1, predicted 3-1) – the Ravens started the season with three tight games: an overtime loss in Las Vegas, an epic home win over the Chiefs, a win against a poor Lions team that required the longest ever field goal in NFL history, and a convincing road win at Denver. The offense has looked better this year as Hollywood Brown appears to have made the third-year leap that is commonplace among young wide receivers and Lamar Jackson looks a lot steadier as a passer – it is likely that these two developments are related. After spending 3 of 4 weeks on the road, the Ravens gets a rare extended homestand, with four straight games at M&T Bank Stadium – the Colts, followed by a tough matchup against the Chargers, a divisional matchup with the Bengals then, following their week 8 bye, one more against the Vikings.
6. Dallas (3-1, predicted 2-2) – the 2021 Cowboys are a rarity, a legitimate contender from the NFC East. The Cowboys offense is explosive and their defense, especially their run defense, under Dan Quinn has also been up to the challenge. The Cowboys only loss was on a late field goal at Tampa, while they have wins at the Chargers, a shellacking of the Eagles at home, and a win over the previously unbeaten Panthers. Dallas gets the Giants at home before playing the Patriots in New England, then a week off, then a primetime game at Minnesota, and wrap up the second quarter with a visit from the Broncos.
7. Chargers (3-1, predicted 1-3) – as mentioned above, the Chargers look like the real deal. The Chargers, a team that has a home building but not a home field advantage, have won both their road games as underdogs and appear to be unfazed by needing silent counts at home. They get the Browns and Pats in LA and the Ravens and Eagles on the road.
8. Kansas City (2-2, predicted 4-0) – while disappointing in the first four weeks, does anyone doubt the potential for the Chiefs to turn it around for the rest of the season? They might not win 14 games, but should still comfortably find themselves in the playoffs. Something to give fans pause: only the Seahawks have a worse defense through four games. A tough stretch coming up: vs Buffalo on Sunday night, at WFT next week, at Tennessee Week 7, and then back home in a bye week (oops, vs NYG Week 8), then a big game against the Packers in Week 9.
9. Cleveland (3-1, predicted 2-2) – a punishing run game and a world-class pass rusher in Myles Garrett, who has 6 sacks in 4 weeks (including 4.5 sacks of poor Justin Fields in Week 3), is what the Browns have to call on. Baker Mayfield appears hurt, but this team is built on running the football through Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt
10. Green Bay (3-1, predicted 4-0) – all appeared lost after the Packers got destroyed by the Saints in Jacksonville in Week 1. Was the internal conflict between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers front office to blame? Did Rodgers spend too much time trying to be Jeopardy! host to effectively train? Did the Packers not do enough in free agency to bolster their offense? Three weeks later and wins over the Lions, Niners, and Steelers have them back on track. The Packers go to Cincinnati in Week 5, then to Soldier Field for their rivalry game against the Bears in Week 6, return home to face the Washingtons, then head back on the road for two tough games against the Cardinals and Chiefs.
11. San Francisco (2-2, predicted 2-2) – the Niners, like the Ravens, have seen a raft of injuries to their running backs, though Kyle Shanahan seems to have figured out the secret formula that his father was able to use to make the most of any running back on hand. The Jimmy Garoppolo injury is going to be a turning point in this season one way or another – if Trey Lance is ready, he’s not giving the job back and the Niners will be playoff bound. If he isn’t, we might be looking at another 6-7 win season. After a tough divisional matchup against the Cardinals in Glendale, the Niners get a bye, then the Colts at home, the Bears at Soldier Field, then the Cardinals again, this time in Santa Clara.
12. Tennessee (2-2, predicted 3-1) – a fatal flaw/hamartia has been a device used in literature since the days of the Greek philosophers – the idea that a key element of the protagonist’s character will lead to the eventual downfall. For the Titans, this flaw is their pass defense, which allows 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 4th worst in the league. While the Chiefs also carry this flaw, their offense might be good enough to cover for it. The Titans have the best pure running back in football in Derrick Henry, though injuries to Julio Jones and AJ Brown have hurt the passing game. Following the Week 5 game at Jacksonville, then the schedule gets insane as the Titans host Buffalo, then the Chiefs (take the over), then hit the road to play at Indianapolis and then at the Rams. An above .500 record after Week 9 would be considered a triumph.
13. Seattle (2-2, predicted 3-1) – the Seahawks have been awful on defense – the worst defensive unit in the league and worst against the run. Fortunately for them, they still have Russell Wilson at QB, which helps them immensely. However, the fatal flaw that hovers over the Titans like a grey cloud also exists for the Seahawks. This defense is bad enough to prevent them from full contender status. The Seahawks next four games should say a lot about their status as they face the Rams at home tonight, the Steelers in Pittsburgh next week, the Saints at home in Week 7, then a layup at home against the Jaguars leading into the bye.
14. Carolina (3-1, predicted 2-2) – the Panthers defense has been spectacular through four weeks, especially their pass defense and pass rush. One caveat, they’ve played the Jets and the Texans. However, they did stymie the Saints as well, so it’s not all luck, but the Cowboys did bring them back down to earth in Week 4 (note: the Cowboys will do that to a lot of teams this year). Unlike some of the other unexpectedly good teams, the Panthers schedule doesn’t get appreciably tougher in the second quarter – they get the Eagles and Vikings at home before heading on the road to take on the Giants and Falcons before returning home to face the Patriots. A 7-2 start is not out of the question for the Panthers.
15. Las Vegas (3-1, predicted 2-2) – the Raiders are a team of two halves – the team is dreadful in the first half and tough in the second. Whatever Jon Gruden is saying at halftime, he should just use at the start of the game because it is working. They overcame large deficits to beat the Ravens and Dolphins, but couldn’t come back from 21 down to beat the Chargers. The next four games all fall into the winnable bucket: home to the Bears, at Denver, home to the Eagles, then a trip to East Rutherford to take on the Giants after the bye. There is just not enough in this team to trust at the moment, but this stretch should be good to them. Should.
16. New Orleans (2-2, predicted 2-2) – the Saints are the most unpredictable team in the league. After being displaced to Jacksonville by Hurricane Ida, the Saints smashed the Packers. They followed that game up with a clunker at Carolina. Just when you figured the Packers win was just a mirage, the Saints dominate the Patriots in Foxborough. Then in their first game at the Superdome, they fall flat against the hapless Giants. Trust issues have emerged between HC Sean Payton and QB Jameis Winston, as the Saints have the league’s worst passing attack through four weeks with only 596 total passing yards.
Cincinnati (3-1, predicted 1-3) – Cincinnati has been powered by surprisingly strong play on defense and less surprisingly strong play by the offense (offensive line performance notwithstanding). In winning three games, the Bengals are close to preseason expectations for the full season already, though business is about to pick up as the Packers come to the Queen City this weekend. After that, the Bengals go on the road for three straight, first to Detroit, then the tough one in Baltimore, and finally at the Jets. The final game in this stretch is a home game against the Browns. This Bengals team should win 2 games, though if they can win one of those tough home games, they may have something bigger at hand.
18. Denver (3-1, predicted 2-2) – playing the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets is a great way to start the season with some wins and a bunch of confidence. The rest of the season doesn’t look anywhere near as welcoming, and the injury to Teddy Bridgewater, along with those to KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy, casts any future successes into significant doubt. This ranking is less a reflection on the Broncos record and more of a reflection of future expectations. This still has the look of a 6-7 win team.
19. Minnesota (1-3, predicted 2-2) – the injury to Dalvin Cook has hampered this team, but it appears that the same issues have followed the Vikings into 2021. When in close games, the kicking fails them (as it did in the Arizona game). The offense is good and the defense is passable, but there does not appear to be enough to lift them out of mediocrity and into a full contender. It feels as though HC Mike Zimmer has been on the hot seat for the past five seasons, but this year it might actually be the case.
20. Indianapolis (1-3, predicted 1-3) – the Colts have struggled offensively in the first four weeks of the season, especially in the passing game. What makes the struggles even more troubling is that the defenses they’ve faced, aside from the Dolphins, are in the bottom ten in passing yards allowed this season. Carson Wentz has really struggled to adapt to his new surroundings and while the offensive line has not performed as well as in past years, some of this blame must be pointed at Wentz – only Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson require more time to throw a pass than Wentz’s 2.6 seconds from snap to throw.
21. Washington (2-2, predicted 3-1) – going into this season, the WFT looked like a team capable of winning games with their defense, but they’ve been horrendous on that side of the ball so far, ranking as the fourth-worst unit on that side of the ball. The defensive front, which was so dominant last season, has failed to meet that level in 2021 – the Washingtons are tied for 23rd with only 7 sacks in the first four weeks.
22. Pittsburgh (1-3, predicted 2-2) – outside of their upset victory at Buffalo, the Steelers have been surprisingly awful. The team’s offense is in disarray – the Steelers’ 221 total rushing yards is 53 yards behind the second worst team in the league. It’s not that rookie RB Najee Harris has been bad – he has 185 of those rushing yards and 178 in the air – the team relies on slants, checkdowns, and bubble screens to account for short yardage due to their apparent issues up front. The other issue is that Big Ben is running on fumes at this stage of his career. After hinting at retirement for the better part of a decade, Roethlisberger now looks like a great that hung around a little too long.
23. New England (1-3, predicted 2-2) – the Patriots lost two of their three losses by a combined four points. While they set a record for contracts handed out this offseason, many of the new players have struggled to find their footing. One player who does not fall into that camp is pass rusher Matt Judon, who has been a menace for opposing offenses.
24. Chicago (2-2, predicted 2-2) – Justin Fields has all the tools you’d want from a modern NFL QB. He can make all the throws and can be a weapon with his legs. The problem for him is that he’s been thrust into the starting lineup before he’s ready and the Bears offensive line is so awful that he’s unable to gradually get himself up to the speed of the pro game. As a result, he looks like a deer caught in the headlights – especially in the Browns game, where he was sacked NINE times. He’s not the first QB to experience a baptism by fire, but the struggles are apparent.
25. Miami (1-3, predicted 2-2) – after a 10-win season, much was expected of the Dolphins in 2021. They’ve failed to meet expectation and the front lines on both sides of the ball have been poor. Deshaun Watson rumours continue to swirl around, despite his status being very much up in the air pending the results of the pending civil (and potential criminal) court cases. This has been a year to forget so far.
26. NY Giants (1-3, predicted 1-3) – Saquon Barkley is ramping back up to a full workload and that is, obviously, good news for the Giants if they have any dreams of being competitive this season.
27. Philadelphia (1-3, predicted 1-3) – rehashing a question that was raised earlier: is Jalen Hurts the best fit to run a team that relies so much on throwing the football? Suppose the thinking is that Hurts can excel in a West Coast offense but teams can crowd the short and intermediate passing lanes without concern that they can be beaten over the top.
28. Atlanta (1-3, predicted 1-3) – the Falcons look to be the exact same team they were in 2020… not a good sign.
29. NY Jets (1-3, predicted 0-4) – the upset victory over the Titans provided some, but not a lot of cover over a tough first three games. Zach Wilson has found the jump from BYU to the NFL to be a challenge, while the roster is still lacking much in the way of top-end talent. The Jets appear to have something special in the defensive line, as Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers have been really impressive thus far.
30. Detroit (0-4, predicted 0-4) – the Lions have proven themselves to be a tough team to play, as evidenced by the Baltimore game and the first half of the Green Bay game. However, as difficult as they are to play, they are still talent-deficient and not as difficult to defeat
31. Jacksonville (0-4, predicted 1-3) – the Jaguars had a disastrous first four games as Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer have not found the transition to the pros to be as seamless as hoped. Meyer in particular seems to be drawn back to the college game in one way or another, and may be seeking his golden parachute before the calendar turns to November.
32. Houston (1-3, predicted 2-2) – why is Houston below Jacksonville? They did beat the Jags in Week 1 and were competitive against the Browns for most of Week 2, but after the injury to Tyrod Taylor, the Texans were forced to hand the keys to Davis Mills, who was a project at best when drafted in the third round and not at all ready for the lead role. The Deshaun Watson saga is a dark cloud over this team, but there are few positives on this rag-tag crew of veteran castaways and unheralded rookies.