Month: September 2023

Fortune Favours The Brave… Until It Doesn’t

When enjoying a couple (or about 10) cold beverages with a friend, the friend (who is very much in this pool) asked for advice on who to take in his Survivor pool. I’m sure most of you at least notionally know of these pools, so won’t belabour that point. He was contemplating taking the Niners as his pick for this week which (of course) makes all the sense in the world: the Niners were 10.5 point favourites at kickoff and the Giants team they were facing was a) not very good, b) missing their best player (Saquon Barkley), and c) coming off an emotional come-from-behind win over an also not-so-good team (Arizona). The fact that this game was on Thursday was also a contributing factor – the early-week game making it difficult for the underdog to scheme up the tricks and gadgets needed to pull the game out.
However, picking the Niners means you don’t get to pick them again, and Week 3 appeared to be teeming with favourable picks: Kansas City, Baltimore, Dallas, and Jacksonville were all favoured by a touchdown or more, generally a good starting point for a Survivor bet (In hindsight: Uh oh). Baltimore had already been taken, Dallas was a no go for personal reasons, which left the Chiefs and Jags. The Bears were going to provide little resistance to the Chiefs, though you might want to pick the Chiefs again later. The Jaguars, not as much – while a playoff team, the Jaguars are a tier below the other contenders and likely not a high-faith matchup for many other games. The Texans, though, looked bad to that point with a spirited but decisive loss to the Ravens in Week 1 and a not as spirited but equally decisive loss to Indianapolis in Week 2. My suggestion was to take all those factors into consideration and take the Jags, which he did. What I did not tell him (because I didn’t know until I heard it during the fourth quarter of this game), was that the Texans had won 20 of the last 25 games in the series between the two teams, including 9 of the last 10. You know the rest: the Texans had everything go right in their blowout 37-17 win. 

APY POOL RESULTS
As mentioned above, the Jags, Ravens, and Cowboys were all touchdown or more favourites this weekend, which not only hurt Survivor pool contestants, but also pools scores. The league averaged 11 points, which is a not great but not awful showing, though the highest score in the pool was 14 of a possible 20 points. 

The 14 point marker was achieved by Donna P (shocker!), Jason R, Lourdes, and Adam. Congrats to each of you!

In the overall standings, Donna P moves back into top position, in a tie with Tom (who got 13 points of his own!). In third place sits Neil (39 points), and Donna K is in fourth place at 38. Basically if your name is Donna, and you’re in this pool, you’re killing it! David and Darren are tied for fifth with 37 points

APY POOL STANDINGS

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Week 3 was full of interesting coaching decisions and the fallout of those calls. There are basically three types of calls chronicled here: calls where coaches took a risk and it paid off, calls where the coach took a risk, it failed, but they won anyways, and situations where the coaches went risk averse, the situation went well, but the end result was a loss. First, a gutsy call by Matt LaFleur at Lambeau

Packers Author Incredible Fourth Quarter Comeback

They’re gutsy if they work and dumb if they don’t. When to go for two has been questioned since the two-point conversion was instituted in 1994, though conventional wisdom has shifted somewhat when it comes to going for two when down by 8 points post-TD late in the game. Until 2017, teams almost always went for 1 when down 8, to bring the deficit to 7, to open up the possibility of getting the late TD and sending the game to OT. The thinking has shifted in recent years, in line with this chart:

The Packers were faced with a 17-0 deficit in the fourth quarter of their game against the Saints this weekend. Following a field goal to make the score 17-3 with 11:00 left, the Packers were able to force a punt and follow that with a quick touchdown with 6:58 remaining to bring the score to 17-9. Packers coach Matt LaFleur went for two, which was successful, to make the score 17-11. This is the advantage of going for two – now if the Packers score another touchdown, they just need the extra point kick to win it (and can still go to OT if they miss). That’s just what Green Bay did as they forced a quick three-and-out and once again marched down the field for a touchdown with 2:58 left. With the made extra point, the Packers were now in the lead at 18-17. The Saints were actually able to march back down the field to set up a game winning field goal, but Blake Grupe missed a 46 yard field goal to give the Packers the victory. LaFleur has been burned by going safe in the past, so perhaps this is a matter of learning your lesson as you move on.

Like LaFleur in 2021, Josh McDaniels Takes Some Points When More Are Needed
And perhaps one Raiders coach Josh McDaniels would’ve been wise to learn himself. With the Raiders trailing the Steelers 23-15 late in the fourth quarter, McDaniels opted to take the points not once, but twice in the late-game drive. The first attempt was on a 4th and 6 from the 30 with 3:11 left. That attempt was good, but was nullified by a Steelers penalty for leverage (Steelers player used a Raider for leverage to help his jump to try to block the kick). Then, with 2:25 left on a 4th and 4 from the Steelers 8 yard line, they attempted yet another kick, which was successful. The Raiders were able to subsequently get the ball back, but with only :12 remaining, and an interception on the first play ended their chances before it really got started.
There’s actually reason to believe the Raiders would’ve been better off declining the leverage penalty and taking the points then, than to proceed and kick the FG later on. All else being equal, the Steelers would’ve needed to run at least one more play before the 2:00 warning and if the circumstances were the same in the Steelers’ drive, the Raiders would’ve had an additional 50-60 seconds with which to work with. Alas, that is not how it all worked out. Coaches are generally very risk averse, and will bank on their defense doing their job more often than not. Which makes things all the more interesting and/or confusing when a coach very openly takes risks.

0-2 Teams Play Hot Potato with a Game
In the last two minutes, the Chargers and Vikings participated in a game of Hot Potato, with the last person holding the ball getting the win. Of course, two 0-2 teams have their reasons for being 0-2, and while the game was entertaining, there are significant issues for each team to address. 

First to the Chargers. The Chargers were faced with a 4th-and-1 on their own 24 yard line with a 28-24 lead, on the good side of the two-minute warning (for them) and the Vikings were all out of timeouts. Given these factors, and Brandon Staley’s penchant for risk-taking, the Chargers decided to go for it – a first down guaranteed a win as the Chargers would go into victory formation with the Vikings unable to further stop the clock. A stop meant the Vikings would have good field position needing a TD to win. Justin Herbert handed the ball off to Joshua Kelley (who was lined up as a fullback), only for Kelley to get stuffed by the Vikings defense.

It should be noted, the quants are on Staley’s side here:

With an estimated 73% chance of success and a 100% chance to win if successful, you can understand the logic, if not the process*. The process, though, was questionable at best. The Chargers had run the ball 14 times for 30 yards in the game prior to this play, but had passed the ball 48 times for 445 yards (on 41 completions). The decision to take the ball out of the hands of their best player and into the hands of an underperforming second-string RB deserves a significant amount of scrutiny but, fortunately for the Chargers, the Vikings were unable to cash in. 

With :41 left, the Vikings had a 4th and 4, which they converted with :35 on the clock. The Vikings sounded their first down horn and the fans went crazy; for the players on the field, this was a bad thing, as Kirk Cousins was unable to hear the play call while time ticked down. So Cousins did what any rational person would do in that situation, he PANICKED! he drew up a play in the dirt and fired a pass to his TE in tight coverage, resulting in a tipped ball and interception to end the game. The clock running down wasn’t as bad as the decision to wing it – would it have been better for Cousins to clock the ball with :14 instead of running the play, then allowing for three more chances to win the game from the Chargers’ 6 yard line? Thinking on the fly is a tough ask, given the circumstances, and this is a scenario that will certainly be practiced in the future, but it does seem like the worst possible outcome happened here at least in part due to poor planning. For two team accustomed to losing games in their strangest imaginable ways, it was an ending that was on brand for each franchise.

* [In fact, some models will advise you to ALWAYS go for it on 4th and 1, regardless of the situation and position on the field (up to and including your own 10 yard line).]

Did Justin Fields Really Need to Come Back Into That Game?
Early in the fourth quarter of the blowout in Kansas City, Fields scrambled for a three yard gain when he was, ahem, tackled by LB Willie Gay. After the play, DJ Moore spotted Fields walking erratically and got the attention of the officials and the Bears to pull him from the game so he could be checked out.
The Bears were on fourth down, so they kicked the field goal; when they got the ball again, put Fields directly back into the game. Coach Matt Eberflus was quite direct in his response, stating Fields had been cleared to return, so he did. Question is, should they? Even with the field goal, the score was 41-3 for the Chiefs with little to play for – even if he was cleared and didn’t have a concussion, why not replace him (and the other starters for that matter). 

With the Bears starting 0-3 and everyone’s job is on the line, including Fields but also (and maybe especially) Eberflus – he’s now 3-17 as head coach, his new defensive coordinator resigned under somewhat dubious circumstances, and Fields has clearly regressed from 2022. While playing Nathan Peterman in an NFL game is almost never advisable, playing the starters either all game or very deep into the game seems indicative of a coach who is really under pressure to solve the issues and hoped more reps would solve the woes of the team. However, this appears to be another example of how Eberflus is outmatched as head coach. Fortunately for him, a musician attended the game which resulted in everyone in sports media turning into gossip columnists and ignoring anything even partially relevant to football. Unfortunately for him, musicians don’t care about 0-3 teams so they’ll again be focused on (bad) football. 

Maybe Nathaniel Hackett Wasn’t So Bad

Ok, let’s not go that far, but the Sean Payton era is off to a horrendous start. There were no controversial calls here but this is obviously a way to shoehorn the Dolphins historic day into this report. The Broncos 0-3 start is a good reminder to not bury your predecessor if at all possible, as things may have been bad but they can always get worse. Then again, can’t imagine things getting much worse than yesterday: the Broncos absolutely folded on Sunday, giving up 726 yards (!!!!) and 70 points (!!!!) to the Dolphins. The 70 points was the most since 1966 and just three off the all-time record, the 726 yards allowed was the most since 1951 when the Rams put up 735 yards in their defeat of the New York Yanks. While it might seem unfair for an NFL team to beat up on a baseball team, one has to wonder if the Broncos would’ve fared better with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on their defensive line than they did with their actual players.

For Miami, the buzz surrounding their offense turned into a roar over the weekend, with pundits now talking up their Super Bowl chances with breathless abandon. The one issue the team had last year (aside from nearly killing Tua Tagovailoa with their O-line), was their run game, but it appears to be much better this year with their two-headed attack of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. The Dolphins rushed for 350 yards, while Mostert and Achane tallied four touchdowns EACH.

So what all of this seems to be pointing at, is that taking calculated risks is generally a wise approach, as long as it’s calculated, and as long as you can live with the negative outcomes. As the saying goes, Fortune Favours the Brave!

Sometimes a concept becomes a lot bigger and more unwieldy than you expect. For me, this was what happened when I wanted to give an overview of what has happened with each team so far this season. As a result, the article I wrote can be found here, but an excerpt can be found below. Enjoy!

Chiefs 17, Jaguars 9
Chiefs status: A little off. In previous years, it was seemingly more common for the Chiefs to put up 37 points in a half than it was for them to have 37 points in two games, yet this is where we find the Chiefs right now. They sorely missed Travis Kelce in the opener against the Lions, and he’s still hobbled by the bad knee, but this offense doesn’t look like the explosive unit we’ve seen in the past. Is it on-field personnel? Is it off-field personnel? Is it just a matter of learning the offense again (which, frankly, is going to have Andy Reid’s fingerprints all over anyways)? Time will tell – and a matchup with the Bears this weekend may be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Jaguars status: Mixed bag. The Jaguars looked in control of their game against the Colts in Week 1 but were outclassed by the Chiefs in Week 2 – even if the score line didn’t reflect that reality. The defense looks strong, having secured 6 takeaways, and the other Josh Allen and Travon Walker have become a strong pass rushing duo. The offense has been hit or miss, with the struggles being very evident against the Chiefs. If there is a positive on that end, it’s that the offense has enough weapons to not need to rely on one player any given week. In Week 1, Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne had big days, in Week 2, it was Christian Kirk – however, Kirk was a non-factor in Week 1 and Etienne and Ridley struggled in Week 2. They’ll need to fire on all cylinders more often as the season progresses. Interesting note: The Jags play back-to-back games in London, starting with a game against the Falcons in Week 4 and wrapping with a match against the Bills in Week 5.

APY WEEK 2 RECAP
Ever go into your decision making process for the picks and miss the one glaring stat that afterwards makes you say “you idiot, how could you miss that GB struggles against the run and went on the road against the most run-heavy team in the league and you put a confidence on it”? Yeah, me neither.

Anyways, it was a good week in the pool, as the average score this week was 13 points. This happened exactly ZERO times last season (and twice in 2021), so a big week for many. The biggest weeks were posted by Neil, Donna K, Paul, Justin, and Will, who each scored 16 of a possible 20 points!

Neil tops the overall standings with 29 points, followed closely by Donna K with 28. Tom is third with 27 points, and Darren, Donna P, and David all round out the money spots with 26 points apiece.

If you find yourself behind in the standings, worry not (yet). You will need approximately 220 points to make some money in the pool. The other side of it is that if you get 220 points, you will drop 124 points in a full season. That means you still have well over 100 mistakes to make from here to the end of the season!

This got too big for an email, but here is an update on the status of each team after two weeks of football.

Eagles 34, Vikings 28
Vikings status: Tense. The Vikings drop to 0-2 with this loss and face a pivotal (for September) matchup with the also 0-2 Chargers (more on them later). The Vikings fell behind 27-7 before making a late-game push to respectability, though there are some concerning trends from Minnesota, especially with the run game on both sides of the ball. They have rushed for a total of 69 yards in two games, with Alexander Mattison really struggling to get his season started now that he is in the starting position at RB. Kirk Cousins has thrown for 708 yards already, but his 4 turnovers (three lost fumbles!) have also hurt the team. The run defense showed its fragility against the Eagles, as they got steamrolled for 259 yards, including 175 by D’Andre Swift. Yes, the Eagles will run against nearly every defense, but the Vikings defense looks outmatched and going into a matchup with the defending NFC champs with an undersized defensive line is generally a recipe for disaster. On the plus side, TE TJ Hockenson and rookie WR Jordan Addison are off to great starts so far – and are showing to be great complements to Justin Jefferson.

Eagles status: NFC favourite again. The Eagles went to 2-0 and don’t look any different from the team that went to the Super Bowl last season with running and defense being their calling cards. Swift’s great day was chronicled above and the defense was able to gain possession of all four Vikings fumbles. Justin Jefferson had a big day (as usual), and since he was effectively locked up by the Eagles in their game last year, he may take a measure of satisfaction for going 11/159 against them. However, his fumble into the end zone helped cost the Vikings the game. That said, the pass defense of the Eagles wasn’t quite as strong as expected in this game and is something to potentially watch as the season progresses.

Ravens 27, Bengals 24
Ravens status: Good start. The Ravens’ offense looked really good in this game, rushing for 178 yards in a balanced attack – Gus Edwards 10/62/TD, Lamar Jackson 12/54, Justise Hill 11/41 – and a workmanlike 237 passing yards. After looking somewhat disjointed in their win over the Texans last week, this win over their division rivals was much more like how they want to play. The defense also slowed down the Bengals, including holding Ja’Marr Chase to 5/31.
Bengals status: Praying to the sacred calf. For the Bengals, it might be time to start handing out the riot helmets. The loss takes the Bengals to 0-2, which is not great for their postseason chances, and their secondary looks less than stellar, but the biggest worry following two weeks is that Joe Burrow aggravated the calf injury he suffered early in camp. As anyone who’s had calf issues can attest, they tend to linger… and sometimes lead to bigger injury worries. It appears that he intends to play through the injury for now, but a long-term injury to Burrow effectively ends the Bengals season, if it does happen.

Seahawks 37, Lions 31 (OT)

Seahawks status: Uncertain. As bad as the Seahawks looked in their Week 1 capitulation at home against the Rams, they looked much better against the Lions and especially their passing offense. The Seahawks put up 328 passing yards, with 6 receivers tallying 35 yards or more. Their pass defense looks to be what can be charitably referred to as a work in progress – they’ve allowed more than 300 yards in both their games. There is a good chance they’ll get back on track at home against the moribund Panthers offense but they’ll need to improve on this if they wish to compete for a playoff spot.

Lions status: Back to Earth. The Lions go into Arrowhead on Banner Night to beat the defending champs, then come back home and lose in OT to the Seahawks. The Lions passing game is good, with three receivers (including rookie TE Sam LaPorta) topping 100 total yards in two games. The thigh bruise suffered by David Montgomery may sideline him for a week or two, so Jahmyr Gibbs may see more work in the run game.

Colts 31, Texans 20

Colts status: Buying Bubble Wrap. Through two games, some things are evident about the Colts new franchise QB Anthony Richardson:
1. He has all the physical tools and a limitless ceiling

2. He has shown better than expected touch and accuracy, and has built a solid rapport with his best receiver, Michael Pittman Jr.

3. He has no fear, but is also reckless
The big challenge for HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter (yes, that’s his real name) may not necessarily be building up Richardson’s in-game acumen, it may be to teach him the art of the slide. Richardson is utterly fearless, but he has exited both games due to injury, leaving the Week 2 game with a concussion. He has not learned the skill of protecting himself from injury and those hits he either avoided or absorbed at Florida hit different at this level.

Texans status: A journey of a thousand miles, taking first steps. This Texans team is very young and still in need of a talent infusion to become competitive in the league. The injury bug has not helped at all, either – Houston was without 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen for the Colts game, and rookie QB CJ Stroud has been fed to the lions, suffering 11 sacks in two games so far (and apparently nursing a shoulder injury). They’ve only allowed 396 yards passing, but that was to two teams with run-first offenses who had the game settled early enough to avoid passing as the game went on. Nico Collins looks like he’s enjoying the Third Year Leap for wide receivers, having emerged as a home run threat for Stroud, with 13/226/1 in two games.

Buccaneers 27, Bears 17

Bears status: Get ready for another long season. To find the positives in this 0-2 Bears team, you have to look very deep under the surface. They are 27th in net offense and 29th in net defense. The Bears have turned the ball over four times but don’t yet have a takeaway. They have sacked an opposing QB just once, but Justin Fields has been sacked TEN times already. This is a pivotal year for Fields, who actually finished 9th in MVP voting a year ago, largely powered by his 1143 rushing yards. This year, he’s rushed for 62 yards as teams are looking to take away his mobility and force him to beat them in the air. He’s now 5-22 as a starter and while you can’t only blame (or credit) a QB for a team’s record, you can certainly point to a 60% completion percentage and 26/24 TD/INT splits. Numbers like those might’ve sent you to Canton in an earlier age, but in this pass-happy, QB protective version of the NFL, those numbers will get you replaced.

Buccaneers status: A Pirate’s Life For Me. Things did not look good for Tampa leading up to the season: Tom Brady retired, the team is committing over a third of its cap space to players that are no longer there, two of their best players (Mike Evans and Devin White) were embroiled in contract squabbles in the preseason, and the QB battle was down to Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask (with Baker winning out). Two games in, and they’re 2-0 in a weak division with a significant road win over the Vikings already under their belt. The Bucs have won their games by protecting the ball and getting takeaways – 5 turnovers on defense, none on offense – getting to the opposing QBs and protecting Mayfield – Baker has been sacked just once while the Bucs have sacked their opponents eight times. While the schedule has its challenges (Eagles on Monday night!), it largely goes their way, so there is a chance we could see them win the division.

Chiefs 17, Jaguars 9
Chiefs status: A little off. In previous years, it was seemingly more common for the Chiefs to put up 37 points in a half than it was for them to have 37 points in two games, yet this is where we find the Chiefs right now. They sorely missed Travis Kelce in the opener against the Lions, and he’s still hobbled by the bad knee, but this offense doesn’t look like the explosive unit we’ve seen in the past. Is it on-field personnel? Is it off-field personnel? Is it just a matter of learning the offense again (which, frankly, is going to have Andy Reid’s fingerprints all over anyways)? Time will tell – and a matchup with the Bears this weekend may be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Jaguars status: Mixed bag. The Jaguars looked in control of their game against the Colts in Week 1 but were outclassed by the Chiefs in Week 2 – even if the scoreline didn’t reflect that reality. The defense looks strong, having secured 6 takeaways, and the other Josh Allen and Travon Walker have become a strong pass rushing duo. The offense has been hit or miss, with the struggles being very evident against the Chiefs. If there is a positive on that end, it’s that the offense has enough weapons to not need to rely on one player any given week. In Week 1, Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne had big days, in Week 2, it was Christian Kirk – however, Kirk was a non-factor in Week 1 and Etienne and Ridley struggled in Week 2. They’ll need to fire on all cylinders more often as the season progresses. Interesting note: The Jags play back-to-back games in London, starting with a game against the Falcons in Week 4 and wrapping with a match against the Bills in Week 5.

Falcons 25, Packers 24
Packers status: Moving on. The transition from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love has gone reasonably well. Love has 6 TDs with zero turnovers – can’t ask for much more than that. The run game needs work on both sides of the ball – the offense would be improved just by having Aaron Jones return to health, but the Packers run defense looked terrible (note: Bijan Robinson is going to do that a lot this year), a worrying trend for a team that couldn’t stop the run last year either. 

Falcons status: Flying high. The Falcons have leveraged a strong run game with stout pass defense to elevate them to a 2-0 start. Perhaps the Panthers and Packers aren’t the best barometers for determining success of your secondary (the Lions will surely be a test this week), but allowing just 267 yards passing in two games (on 4.0 yards per attempt) is no small feat. On the other side of the ball, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have formed a solid duo, rushing for a total of 301 yards in two games. In fact, the Falcons have called the greatest percentage of run plays vs pass plays (56.3%) and are one of only five teams with a 50-50 split or greater (others: Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco).

Bills 38, Raiders 10
Raiders status: Sputtering. The Raiders were able to come away with the victory over the Broncos in Week 1 and got annihilated here by the Bills in Week 2. The offense is struggling significantly, with just 500 yards in two games (the Bills torched then for 450 in Week 2 alone), and a paltry 116 yards rushing – including an anemic 46 yards on 28 carries by Josh Jacobs.Meanwhile James Cook gashed them for 123 yards last week. The turnover battle is being lost as well, with the Raiders turning the ball over 4 times but not having any takeaways so far. The struggles on offense look like they’ll linger, so the defense needs to play like they did in Week 1 if the Raiders are going to have success.

Bills status: Desperately avoiding shooting themselves in the foot. The Bills look like a team whose biggest enemy is themselves. Josh Allen turned the ball over four times (3 picks, 1 fumble) in their opening week loss to the Jets. Aside from the turnovers, the Bills had no business losing that game. They gave up an 83 yard run to Breece Hall in Week 1 which impacts their averages but only 302 passing yards allowed in two weeks. The Allen gaffes appeared to be a big factor in the very public frustrations vented by Stefon Diggs at the end of last season and that is what is going to be a big key to their season. Can Josh Allen tamp down the gunslinger part of his DNA when necessary?

Titans 27, Chargers 24 (OT)
Chargers status: panic? When you lose two games by a total of 5 points, you can write some of it off to just bad luck. The offense has looked solid as usual, even with Austin Ekeler missing Week 2 with an ankle injury. The defense has looked wretched, allowing a staggering 877 yards in two games (and 63 points). They’ve allowed 6.9 yards per play (league average is 5.5), a third down conversion rate of 45.5% (10 of 22, average is around 34%), and 9.0 yards per pass play (over 2 yards more than league average). Numbers will be skewed by Tua and Tyreek’s monster day in Week 1 but it did happen on the Chargers’ watch. The run defense was the Chargers’ Achilles heel last season and it remains to be seen whether the troubles have shifted to the secondary.

Titans status: Meh. The Titans are an unremarkable team. They are good against the run, not great against the pass. They are very run heavy  with not much in the passing game (even with DeAndre Hopkins). 1-1 seems like a fitting record for an average team. 

49ers 30, Rams 23

49ers status: Complete team. No surprises here, the Niners have a powerful defense and a strong run game, just like every other season. Their passing game is not spectacular, but efficient (they rank 5th in average yards per pass play), and they don’t turn the ball over (only once so far) and get takeaways (4 INTs in two weeks). They always beat the Rams, with their ninth straight victory against their division rivals (of course they didn’t win when it really counted two seasons ago, but that’s another story). The Niners will be a factor in the postseason and will be fighting the Eagles for home field advantage all season.

Rams status: Optimistic. With the recent departures and injuries, the Rams had lower expectations going into the season. With Cooper Kupp out, they were relying on a bunch of players with limited experience and/or low ceilings in the skill positions and the defense seemed to consist of Aaron Donald and not much else. Surely, sacrificing the future for a SB window was going to start biting them now, right? Well, maybe still but not yet. The Rams have unearthed a few gems late in the draft and we have two new players fitting that mould: Puka Nacua, a 2023 5th round pick out of BYU and Kyren Williams, last year’s fifth rounder from Notre Dame have surprised many by flying out of the gates to start this season. Nacua is among the league leaders in receiving yards with 266, while Williams has 104 rushing yards and has found the end zone four times already (3 rushing, 1 receiving). Tutu Atwell, a second round pick from 2021 has also seemingly found his place, with 196 receiving yards. Some might’ve predicted Williams’ strong start but Nacua and Atwell have seemingly come from nowhere. One of the big factors in the Rams’ start has been their play on 3rd down on both sides of the ball: they rank 2nd on offense with a 58% success rate, while they hold opponents to a 22% rate (also ranked second). Keeping the chains moving is a key path to success – this usually isn’t sustainable to this extent, but it bears watching this season.

Giants 31, Cardinals 28

Giants status: Fortunate to be 1-1. As the game between the Giants and Cardinals reached halftime, the Giants had surrendered 60 points and scored ZERO. Fortunately, they exploded for 31 points in the second half to beat the Cardinals and potentially saved their season (since all the other NFC East teams are 2-0, going 0-2 was not going to help their playoff hopes). The offense seemed to wake up (hopefully Saquon Barkley’s injury isn’t too severe), but the defense still needs a lot of work. They don’t get pressure on the QB (no sacks at all in two games), don’t get turnovers (zero), and don’t get the opposition off the field on third down (43% opponent success rate). They’ll need to find answers to those issues and ASAP since they travel to San Francisco for a Thursday night game.

Cardinals: Scrappy (but not very good). Arizona made a lot of tongues wag in the offseason by cutting or trading any and all saleable assets to accelerate the rebuild process. Kyler Murray is still recovering from his torn ACL and likely won’t be back until mid-season (if at all), they also acquire the Texans first rounder in 2024, ostensibly to double their odds of landing the top pick in the draft (Caleb Williams alert!). They have a bunch of hungry, if outclassed players who are looking at their own futures and have played two tight, yet mistake ridden games. Against the Commanders, they allowed only 248 yards and got 3 turnovers… but the offense got only 210 yards and turned the ball over twice. On Sunday, they flipped the script – the offense had a good game but the defense fell apart in the second half as they blew a 21 point lead to the Giants. This team gets the Cowboys and Niners over the next two weeks, and victories will be few and far between in the rest of the schedule, but at least they’re making this difficult (mostly) on their opponents.

Cowboys 30, Jets 10
Jets status: Despair. After all the talk and drama and heightened expectations, losing Aaron Rodgers on the third play of the season was a gut punch in a series of gut punches for Jets fans. Finally a QB that could take them back to the promised land (just, uh, don’t look at his recent playoff track record)! Now they have a soon-to-be 40 year old with a ruptured (now repaired) Achilles. The Jets still won their opener against the Bills due to an epic meltdown by Josh Allen, but they received no quarter from the Cowboys, with the Jets getting just 215 yards total offense and committing 4 turnovers. This team was built to compete for the playoffs but without a capable QB, this team will be lucky to sniff .500.

Cowboys status: Dominant. The Cowboys offense has been decent, but with the performance of their defense, they haven’t really needed to strain themselves yet. The defense has allowed just 10 points in two games and, looking at the numbers, it’s a surprise that they’ve allowed so many. First, the Giants and Jets both look lost right now and that likely plays a big role… but the defense is also very scary. The Cowboys have already sacked opposing QBs 10 times and taken the ball away seven times. Scheduling fortune will continue to smile upon them with the Cardinals and Patriots next on their list before an actual challenge meets them in Week 5 (Niners). 

Commanders 35, Broncos 33

Commanders status: Survivors. Week 1 the Commanders came back from a 6 point fourth quarter deficit to win, in Week 2, they came back from a 21-3 deficit to beat the Broncos. It didn’t come without drama though, as the Broncos hit an improbable Hail Mary on the last play of the game, only to get thwarted on the two-point conversion. The Commanders get two big chances to prove their quick start isn’t a fluke: this week at home to Buffalo and next week at Philadelphia.

Broncos status: Yikes. Sean Payton was hired away from his cushy studio job at Fox with two goals in mind, bring the Broncos back to respectability, and fix Russell Wilson. The jury is still very much out, with two losses by a combined three points, it’s not completely fair to judge too early in the process. Russell Wilson looks a little better under the new regime, though, at 35, he is starting to show his age a little. He can still scramble, but avoiding pass rushers and taking off for big gains does not come as easily for him anymore. He has been sacked nine times in two games and while the offensive line has underperformed, his style of play will always invite more contact. 

Dolphins 24, Patriots 17

Dolphins status: Electric. The Dolphins lead the league in total offense and passing yards, and this year with Raheem Mostert healthy (for now), they have a competent run game. They’ve put up 925 total yards, and 710 passing yards, both easily leading the league – their only issue is that their defense is nearly as permissive, allowing 721 total yards and 321 rushing yards. That said, the Dolphins have won their first two games on the road and go into a favourable home game against the Broncos in Week 3. If they can stop the bleeding on defense, it’ll help their chances later in the season. For the time being, they’ll enjoy the hot start and hope they can keep Tua Tagovailoa healthy. 

Patriots status: Danger Zone. The Patriots are 0-2 in a division with the Bills and Dolphins, and a conference with 10-12 playoff contenders. This is a team that needs to rely on defense and protecting the football – they got defense in Week 1 against the Eagles, holding them to just 251 total yards – but they got neither in Week 2 against the Dolphins. The Dolphins will likely be a problem for nearly every team this season if Tua is healthy. However, the Pats in general and Mac Jones in particular, needs to do a better job of protecting the football. They don’t have the type of quick-strike offense that can cover up mistakes, they need to grind out possessions and keep teams like the Dolphins off the field as much as possible. The Pats have 506 yards of passing in two weeks, which seems like a good indicator, but that is on 96 pass attempts, around 5.0 yards per pass – 25th in the league. The run game also needs to get going somewhat if they are to challenge for a playoff spot. Otherwise, it might be a long season in New England.

Saints 20, Panthers 17
Saints status: Stout defense, sad offense. The Saints have scored 36 total points and go into Week 3 with a 2-0 record with a trip to Lambeau on the way. Will the Saints keep this up? Their defense, especially their pass rush (7 sacks) and secondary (4 takeaways) seems to be up to the challenge. The offense is still very much a work in progress. They are missing Alvin Kamara, who will rejoin the team in Week 4 after serving his suspension, but Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed have picked up the slack from a skill position standpoint. 

Panthers status; A Long Way To Go. Bryce Young has struggled significantly so far in his rookie campaign. The first overall pick has racked up 299 yards on 59% completion rate. The initial opinion on Young is that the game looks a little fast for him right now, and a player who was so reliant on timing and tempo at Alabama is not getting much of that with Carolina at the moment. The offense is very thin at the skill positions – though Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard have formed a competent RB room, the receivers room is lacking. This is going to be a long season for him, but he really needs the reps to get accustomed to life in the NFL.

Steelers 26, Browns 22

Browns status: Waiting on Watson. Deshaun Watson’s play in the first two games has been poor, to put it succinctly. He has turned the ball over four times, including a fumble returned for a touchdown by TJ Watt. While he did spend almost two years away from football (by his own doing), he has now played eight games for the Browns and has not nearly approached what he did in Houston. He was a 67.8% passer as a Texan, his completion percentage is a full 10 points under that as a Brown. He threw for 4823 yards in his final season in Houston with a 33/7 TD/INT ratio. As a Brown, he’s thrown for 1491 yards in 8 games with a 9/7 ratio. With his $230M guaranteed contract, expectations will start mounting and he’ll need to prove his contract. With the gruesome injury suffered by Nick Chubb last night, he’ll have less of a safety net to work with as well, increasing the pressure.
Steelers status: Will only go as far as their defense takes them. And the jury is still out on that. The Steelers have allowed a league-worst 5.6 yards per carry and while this unit can win games on its own (and needed to be opportunistic to do so in Week 2), it still does need some cleanup. When it comes to the Steelers offense, the less said the better. They’ve averaged 4.3 yards per play, a frighteningly low number. The lone bright spot is George Pickens, who torched the Cleveland secondary for a 4/127/1 line. They have two winnable games on the road (at LV, at HOU), then a matchup with their hated rivals from Baltimore before the bye. If they can be 3-2 or by then, they’ll be able to entertain thoughts of playoff contention. Anything worse, and it’s an uphill battle they don’t have the facilities to overcome.

The Aaron Rodgers offseason saga took months to unfold, from cryptic comments following the Lions upset win at Lambeau, which caused the Packers to miss the playoffs last season, to Rodgers allegedly ghosting the Packers, his “darkness retreat“, numerous appearances on Pat McAfee’s podcast, including the infamous one where he expressed his desire to play for the Jets, then the protracted trade talks with the Packers and Jets, which eventually led to a deal on the eve of draft night. The 39-year-old future Hall of Famer wasn’t expected to last a long time, but hopefully a good time for the success-starved Jets franchise. Instead, his Jets career might’ve lasted the sum total of three offensive snaps. Rodgers was sacked by Leonard Floyd and with it, suffered a torn Achilles tendon.

Now, there are examples of players coming back from Achilles tears, including one of the greatest ever QBs, but Rodgers will be 40 in December, and Achilles tears are famously difficult to return from for players more than 10 years younger… and as anyone on the wrong side of 40 knows: even the most medial of physical tasks does not get easier with age.

On the plus side for the Jets, they did beat the Bills – though reviews were (ahem) mixed on Zach Wilson’s performance – and their defense forced Josh Allen into four turnovers, including an awful second half performance by the supposed MVP candidate QB. The defense should keep them afloat this year and, of course, Breece Hall is back, so the hope is still there for a playoff spot… maybe?

Two teams happy to receive a bit of a diversion: the Steelers and Giants. Both teams looked lost on their respective home fields, getting annihilated by the Niners and Cowboys. The Steelers looked bad but the Giants looked dire with the Cowboys scoring touchdowns in all three phases (offense, defense, special teams) and sacked newly minted $160 million man Daniel Jones SEVEN times in the 40-0 romp. While teams have had bad opening weeks before and recovered, this Giants team resembled the 2021 bottom-feeder more than the 2022 playoff team.

Such a wild week that you almost forget that the Detroit Lions went into Arrowhead and defeated the defending champs on their own turf. But they did. Just ask Kadarius Toney.

POOL PRIZES
The pool roster has been set – we have 43 entrants, which means $860 to split up. The prizes will be divided as follows:
FIRST PRIZE: $600
SECOND PRIZE: $125
THIRD PRIZE: $75
FOURTH PRIZE: $20
MINI POOL A: $20
MINI POOL B: $20
For those new to the pool, the mini-pools will run the final six weeks of the season – a way for some of the folks outside the top 4 hunt to have a chance to earn their entry fees back.

POOL RESULTS
In the pool, we had strong opening weeks from Neil, Darryl, and Tom, who all put up a lucky 13 points to take the early lead. Scores were decent, though hampered by home losses by Minnesota (a popular confidence pick), Kansas City, and Seattle, while the egg Cincinnati laid was also unexpected by many. The top three were followed by eight others, including the 2022 top 2 – Donna and Fred. As always, a reminder that a poor Week 1 is not a death sentence – in fact, getting the dud out of the way early may help get a feel for the season and honing your betting strategies.