As always, the last week of the NFL season means a lot for some teams… and very little for others. Here, we will run through all the different playoff scenarios for each of the teams heading into Week 18. Then on gameday, we’ll set up another post with all the outcomes from the weekend games.
With the cardiac arrest suffered by Bills safety Damar Hamlin, the teams and league ultimately decided to do the right thing and suspend the Bills-Bengals game until further notice. The NFL will likely want to get this game in somewhere, which will provide some interesting postseason scheduling, but that’s not really all that important in the grand scheme of things – the Bills and Bengals will adapt to whatever situation they find themselves in. Until the game is cancelled, the assumption will be that they will make the game up.
AFC
Interestingly, with a week to go, no team is locked into a specific seed in the AFC. There are some teams with very direct seeding or playoff scenarios, but none of that is confirmed heading into Week 18. The Jets and the Raiders were both officially eliminated from playoff contention, and the Pats leapfrogged Miami into the seventh spot for the time being after their 23-21 win over the Dolphins in Week 17. The Steelers have a chance, while the Titans and Jaguars face off Saturday night for the AFC South Title.
1. KANSAS CITY (13-3)
2. BUFFALO (12-3)
3. CINCINNATI (11-4)
4. JACKSONVILLE (8-8)
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5. LOS ANGELES (10-6)
6. BALTIMORE (10-6)
7. NEW ENGLAND (8-8)
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
MIAMI (8-8)
PITTSBURGH (8-8)
TENNESSEE (7-9)
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
KANSAS CITY (13-3)
Chances of Earning a First Round Bye: 48%
Week 18: at Las Vegas (6-10), Sat 4:30 pm ET
The Chiefs odds of taking the first round bye increase significantly if the Bills-Bengals game is not played. Both the Bills and Bengals own head-to-head tiebreakers over the Chiefs, which means they could find themselves with the third seed if they lose and Cincinnati wins out and the Bills beat the Pats.
BUFFALO (12-3)
Chances of Earning a First Round Bye: 44%
Remaining Games: Week 18 vs New England (8-8), Sun 1:00 pm ET, TBD at Cincinnati (11-4)
With S Damar Hamlin suffering a cardiac arrest on the field in Week 17’s suspended MNF game, there’s no telling what the Bills’ mindset will be heading into their Week 18 game against New England, let alone if they’ll make up the Week 17 game ahead of the postseason.
CINCINNATI (11-4)
Chances of Earning a First Round Bye: 8%
Chances of Winning AFC North: 84%
Remaining Games: Week 18 vs Baltimore (10-6), TBD vs Buffalo (12-3)
Not playing the Week 17 game would clinch the division for the Bengals, but also eliminates them from getting the bye. They have the tiebreaker over the Bills on strength of victory without playing the game, so if the Bengals beat the Ravens and Pats beat the Bills, the Bengals would have the 2-seed (and face the Pats on Wild Card Weekend).
JACKSONVILLE (8-8)
Playoff Chances: 79%
AFC South Division Chances: 75%
Week 18: vs Tennessee (7-9), Sat 8:15 pm
This game against the Titans is a win-and-in situation. The Jaguars win the AFC South with a win, but they can also get the seven seed with a loss if the Patriots, Dolphins, and Steelers also lose. The Titans have been decimated by injuries in the latter part of the season, including a high ankle sprain to starting QB Ryan Tannehill, which put him on the IR. The Titans will start Joshua Dobbs at QB for this pivotal matchup but they rested Derrick Henry in Week 17 and will have him for this game. And with Henry, they have a shot. The FiveThirtyEight.com model gives the Jaguars a 3-to-1 chance to win.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (10-6)
Week 18: at Denver (4-12), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The scenarios for the Chargers are very straight-forward. Win at Denver and the Chargers get the 5th seed. An 11-6 Chargers team wins a tiebreaker over the team that finishes second in the AFC North. The Chargers can also get the five seed with a loss if the Ravens also lose in Week 18.
BALTIMORE (10-6)
AFC North Division chances: 16%
Week 18: at Cincinnati (11-4)
The Ravens may not know whether their Week 18 game will help them win the division until after the game is played. There is a chance that the Bills-Bengals game does not get played, which gives the AFC North title to Cincinnati. Baltimore would then be playing for the 5th or 6th seed – which could pit them against Jacksonville or Tennessee… or Buffalo or Cincinnati. They need the Chargers to lose for a chance at the five seed though, so Cincinnati is their likely opponent in the Wild Card round regardless.
NEW ENGLAND (8-8)
Playoff Chances: 33%
Week 18: at Buffalo (13-3), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Patriots solution is simple, WIN = IN. The problem is not so simple. The Patriots need to go into Buffalo and defeat the Bills – a team that, aside from Wind Bowl 2021, has dominated the Pats in the Josh Allen era. If the Chiefs win on Saturday, there is a decent chance that the Bills, rocked by Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest as it is, will rest or play their starters only sparingly and accept their fate of playing in the Wild Card round. Given their opponent and the Dolphins hosting the Jets, the Pats hold the last seed but actually have lower odds than the Dolphins of making the playoffs.
MIAMI (8-8)
Playoff Chances: 42%
Week 18: vs NY Jets (7-9), Sun 1:00 pm ET
With their 23-21 loss to the Patriots in Week 17, the Dolphins went from controlling their destiny, to needing a win and help to make the playoffs. With the status of QB Tua Tagovailoa up in the air for their Week 18 game against the Jets and being on a five-game losing streak, the Dolphins cannot take anything for granted. The positives for them: Buffalo has not been kind to the Patriots in recent games and the free-falling Jets have also lost five in a row and only have pride to play for after being knocked out of playoff contention by the Seahawks last week. The Dolphins need a win and a Patriots loss to make the playoffs.
PITTSBURGH (8-8)
Playoff chances: TBD
Week 18: vs Cleveland (7-9), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Steelers are starting to make a habit of these improbable late season playoff runs. Last season, the Steelers had a 5% chance of making the playoffs and needed a wild sequence of events – including a win at Baltimore, a win by the then 2-14 Jaguars over Indianapolis, and for the Chargers-Raiders game to not end in a tie which, of course, was about to happen before Brandon Staley decided to call a timeout for some unknown reason. This season, the odds are slightly better but no less complex. The Steelers need to beat the Browns at home, but also need the Patriots to lose at Buffalo and for the Dolphins to lose at home to the Jets. The latter game is a complete wild card – the Jets and Dolphins have both lost five in a row and we have no idea who will be under centre for either team.
TENNESSEE (7-9)
AFC South Division chances: 26%
Week 18: at Jacksonville, Sat 8:15 pm ET
The Titans went into their Week 17 matchup against the Cowboys knowing that the result was insignificant – the Titans couldn’t (and can’t) make the playoffs as a wild card this season but if they win at Jacksonville on Saturday, they’ll win the division record tiebreaker and get a home playoff game. The result? A competitive loss against a strong Cowboys team that really needed the win to keep their hopes of the NFC 1 seed alive. For this crucial matchup, the Titans will start Joshua Dobbs at QB, a real-life rocket scientist who has been with the team for about two weeks. Derrick Henry will play and when he plays, you can put a 13 year old under centre and the Titans have a shot.
NFC
Some significant events occurred in the NFC last weekend: the Bucs *ahem* won the NFC South by beating the Panthers 30-24 and, with nothing to play for in Week 18, will likely rest everyone – or at the very most treat the game like a preseason game and play the starters for a quarter (with the amount of veterans on this team I doubt that they’ll even do that). In Washington, the Commanders slept-walked through a crucial home game against the Browns and have been eliminated. In Green Bay, the Packers absolutely dominated the Minnesota Vikings which means the Packers now sit with the sixth seed ahead of a massive showdown with the 8-8 Lions. The Eagles lost to the Saints, which means their final game against the Giants is now important if they want to take the 1-seed. All the divisions are now decided, so all eyes are on the race for the 7-seed, which we now know will belong to a 9-8 team.
1. PHILADELPHIA (13-3)
2. SAN FRANCISCO (12-4)
3. MINNESOTA (12-4)
🔒 4. TAMPA BAY (8-8)
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5. DALLAS (12-4)
🔒 6. NY GIANTS (9-6-1)
7. GREEN BAY (8-8)
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
SEATTLE (8-8)
DETROIT (8-8)
PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
1. PHILADELPHIA (13-3)
Chances of Earning First Round Bye: 92%
Chances of Winning NFC East: 94%
Week 18: vs NY Giants (9-6-1), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The impact of not having Jalen Hurts in the lineup the past two weeks has been glaringly evident, as the team that ran a 13-1 record with him has now lost two in a row and all of a sudden has an important Week 18 game against the Giants. They need to win to secure the 1 seed in the NFC. Both the Niners and Cowboys own tiebreakers over the Eagles, which means a loss paired with a loss by either team puts Philly either in the 2 or 5 seed heading into the postseason. On the plus side, the Giants have nothing to play for, having secured the 6-seed with their Week 17 win over the Colts. That said, I would not expect a walkover by the Giants against their hated division rival.
2. SAN FRANCISCO (12-4)
Chances of Earning First Round Bye: 7%
Week 18: vs Arizona (4-12), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The Niners went into Week 8 with a 3-4 record, having lost to the Bears, Broncos, and Falcons. It would’ve been fair to assume that the Niners were vulnerable even in a division having an unexpected down year. GM John Lynch must’ve noticed this as well, as he went out and got former All Pro RB Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers before the trade deadline. McCaffrey was there in time for the loss to the Chiefs, but he really made his presence known in the Week 8 win over the Rams, scoring touchdowns on their ground, in the air, and added a passing TD for good measure. Since that 3-4 start, the Niners have won nine in a row, continuing their winning ways even after Jimmy Garoppolo went down with injury and was replaced by 2022 NFL Draft Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy from Iowa State. Purdy has integrated into Kyle Shanahan’s system flawlessly, as they continue their winning ways. Now, all the Niners need is a win over a struggling Cardinals team on their fourth quarterback and an Eagles loss against the Giants to take the 1 seed. They own the conference record tiebreaker over the Cowboys, so the Niners don’t need to worry about that game factoring into their decision-making.
3. MINNESOTA (12-4)
Week 18: at Chicago (3-13), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Vikings have a 12-4 record but a point differential of -19. Their Week 1 win over the Packers was the only game that they won by more than 8 points, and there were just FOUR games in which they did not trail in the fourth quarter. You can look at this from the positive or negative side: ability to come back from nearly any deficit is a great trait for a team heading into the playoffs, however, falling behind against top competition is not a recipe for success. The Vikings need to win and have the Niners lose to take the two seed, which could mean a date with the Packers, whom they just got blown out by, or the Lions, whom they lost to by 11 in Week 14. Nobody should be surprised if Minnesota rests its starters and takes their chances against the Giants, against whom they required a 61 yard field goal to beat in Week 16.
4. TAMPA BAY (8-8)
Week 18: at Atlanta (6-10), Sun 1:00 pm ET
Tampa is locked in with the 4 seed after a thrilling win over the Panthers in Week 17. They’ll host either the Cowboys or Eagles on Wild Card Weekend. Expect this veteran-laden team to rest many of their starters in Week 18.
5. DALLAS (12-4)
Chances of Earning First Round Bye: 0.8%
Chances of Winning NFC East: 6%
Week 18: at Washington (7-8-1), Sun 4:25 pm ET
After destroying the Colts in the fourth quarter of their Week 13 games, the Cowboys have: needed a last minute TD to beat the Texans, lost after being up 27-10 against the Jaguars, come from behind to beat Gardner Minshew (and the Eagles), and safely, but not soundly defeated the second unit of the Titans. On paper, this is one of the league’s best teams – they have a two-headed monster at RB (Elliott and Pollard), one of the league’s best receivers (CeeDee Lamb), a strong QB, if not a top Tier QB (Dak Prescott), a dominant pass rush and a scary do-it-all linebacker (Micah Parsons). In practice, it can look that way sometimes (see their 40-3 demolition of the Vikings), but not always. Their +145 point differential trails only the Bills and Niners (and not by a lot). Dallas is fifth if the Eagles win, second if the Eagles lose but the Niners do not, and they’ll get the bye if they win and both the Eagles and Niners lose.
6. NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS (9-6-1)
Week 18: at Philadelphia (13-3), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The Giants are locked in with the six seed after pasting the Colts this past weekend. They’ll travel to San Francisco or Minnesota (likely Minnesota).
7. GREEN BAY (8-8)
Playoff Chances: 62%
Week 18: vs Detroit (8-8), Sunday 8:20 pm ET
The Green Bay Packers flipped the calendar to December with a 4-8 record, a maligned defense, and inept offense and, to some, a QB controversy on their hands. As the calendar changed over to 2023, the Packers are now 8-8, in control of their own destiny and a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. They now have a #1 receiver in Christian Watson and their defense has turned things around, allowing only 17 PPG in the past four games. Their Week 18 matchup is no layup though, they face a Lions team who may or may not have something to play for but that team will play hard no matter the situation and is good enough to put some points on the board. The two teams played a tough, if not aesthetically pleasing game in Week 9 which the Lions won 15-9.
SEATTLE (8-8)
Playoff chances: 21%
Week 18: vs LA Rams (5-11), Sun 4:25 pm ET
Imagine if someone told you before the season started that the Seahawks would have a 21% chance to make the playoffs prior to Week 18, you might’ve checked for signs of over-medication… or maybe some highlighter-green jerseys in that person’s closet. (Of course, we now know that over-medication is not the only reason for half-baked If that person told you the same thing after Week 9, you’d say it was a collapse… though perhaps given the team’s expectations not exactly a surprise. Either way, this is the scenario the Seahawks find themselves in heading into Week 18 – they don’t control their destiny, but they can lock up an above .500 season with a win, and then be Lions fans for SNF. They have the tiebreaker over the Lions following that crazy Week 4 game in Detroit that ended 48-45 for Seattle.
DETROIT (8-8)
Playoff chances: 17%
Week 18: at Green Bay (8-8), Sun 8:20 pm ET
After Week 8 the perennially moribund Detroit Lions had the league’s worst record (1-6) and were staring down the barrel of another early draft pick and a likely overhaul in the organization. Since then, the Lions have gone on a tear, winning 7 of their last 9, including last week’s obliteration of the Bears. The Lions offense with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (no, not THAT Ben Johnson) have been formidable all season, but it took a while for their very young defense to round into form. Since the Seahawks play earlier in the day, the Lions will know whether they are playing for a playoff spot or to knock the Packers out – and finish above .500 for the first time since 2017 (and fifth time this century!)
RACE TO THE BOTTOM
On the other end of the spectrum, two teams have a chance at securing the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans and the Chicago Bears.
32. HOUSTON (2-13-1)
31. CHICAGO (3-13)
HOUSTON (2-13-1)
Best possible draft pick: 1st overall
Worst possible draft pick: 2nd overall
Week 18: at Indianapolis (4-11-1), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Texans were downright feisty in the three weeks heading into the matchup with the Jaguars in Week 17, having defeated the Titans, taking the Chiefs to overtime, and pushing the Cowboys to the limit before a last minute touchdown sealed the win for Dallas (and loss for Houston). In Week 18, Houston faces a Colts team riding a six game losing streak – the team they tied with in Week 1. Another point to consider, the Texans were 0-7-1 at home this season, but are 2-6 on the road. As far as the players are concerned, this is a great opportunity to end the season on a positive note – as far as management is concerned, this is a great opportunity to lose out on the first overall pick. Luckily for them, taking the lesser of Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud is not a poor consolation prize. They’ll also get a mid-first rounder from the Deshaun Watson trade (and a third rounder), so this will be a big opportunity for them to add blue chip talent to a team that desperately needs it.
CHICAGO (3-13)
Best possible pick: 1st overall
Worst possible pick: 4th overall
Week 18: vs Minnesota (12-4), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Bears have their QB of the Future in Stroud’s predecessor at Ohio State, Justin Fields, so they aren’t taking a quarterback, though they can take a defensive line disruptor in pass rusher Will Anderson from Alabama or DT Jalen Carter from Georgia or trade that pick for a king’s ransom to a QB-needy franchise. This Bears is in dire need of an infusion of talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball and in their offensive line, so taking a top tier defender or getting multiple prime picks for their early pick is a pretty good situation to be in. A win could move the Bears down to the 4th overall pick, which may still net them a player they need (Anderson, Carter, another EDGE, or a LT). The Bears strength of schedule (.555) is the strongest in the league and only looks to become higher once the game with the 12-4 Vikings is factored in.
THE REST OF THE NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS
Players generally aren’t tanking for draft picks, though teams may approach the final week differently. In a lot of cases, reserves are likely to get some playing time in Week 18, and those players will want to put some good tape on their resumes. The Broncos, Rams, Saints, and Browns don’t own their first round picks – in fact, the Broncos shipped their first and second to the Seahawks in the Russell Wilson trade – so they have no incentive to tank at any level. Tennessee (23), Detroit, Seattle, and Miami are all on the outside looking in but since they have a shot at the playoffs, they are not profiled here.
30. DENVER (4-12)
29. ARIZONA (4-12)
28. INDIANAPOLIS (4-11-1)
27. LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-11)
26. LAS VEGAS (6-10)
25. ATLANTA (6-10)
24. CAROLINA (6-10)
22. NEW ORLEANS (7-9)
21. CLEVELAND (7-9)
20. NEW YORK JETS (7-9)
19. WASHINGTON (7-8-1)
DENVER (4-12)
Best possible pick: 20th overall (Denver owns San Francisco’s first round pick)
Worst possible pick: 31st overall
Week 18: vs LA Chargers (10-6), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The Broncos received the Niners first round pick in the Bradley Chubb trade. When the Russell Wilson trade was made and his monster contract extension was signed, it was a signal to the rest of the league – and a seemingly loaded AFC West – that they were a contender to be reckoned with. We know that things did not turn out that way at all in 2022, with Nathaniel Hackett getting the axe 15 games into his first season as head coach. The Broncos showed some life under in Kansas City under interim coach Jerry Rosburg, and should be expected to do more of the same this weekend against the playoff-bound Chargers. The Seahawks will be watching intently, as a Broncos loss and Bears win gives Seattle the second overall pick. Alternatively, a win by the Broncos and a Colts loss drops them to fifth (they won’t surpass the Rams’ strength of schedule).
ARIZONA (4-12)
Best possible pick: 2nd overall
Worst possible pick: 6th overall
Week 18: at San Francisco (12-4), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The final game of the 2022 season marks the end of the career of soon-to-be first ballot Hall of Famer J.J. Watt. It also marks the end of a lost season for Arizona, who lost Kyler Murray to a torn ACL that is likely hamper him as a mobile QB, even if he does come back for the start of the 2023 season. Realistically, we could see a complete overhaul here this offseason, from GM Steve Keim, who recently stepped away from the team for personal reasons, to HC Kliff Kingsbury, to many of their veteran players. This last game in Santa Clara against a Niners team on a nine game winning streak and the possibility of a first round bye is likely not the best send-off imaginable for these Cardinals.
INDIANAPOLIS (4-11-1)
Best possible pick: 3rd overall
Worst possible pick: 6th overall
Week 18: vs Houston (2-13-1), Sun 1:00 pm ET
Much like the Broncos and Cardinals before them, the Colts had a calamitous 2022 season that will have impacts far further than this season. With Frank Reich already fired, the Colts won Jeff Saturday’s debut has head coach, then promptly lost their next six games, including the worst come-from-ahead loss in league history against the Vikings. The Colts have the league’s worst point differential (-137). The offense is there with the Broncos and Texans in contention for the worst unit in the league (just two more points than the league-worst Texans), but more worrying has been the dismal play of a former strength of the Colts, its offensive line – and LG Quenton Nelson in particular. Heading into this season, Nelson was assigned blame for four sacks in his first four seasons with the Colts. In 2022 alone, he has been accredited with 5 sacks. This isn’t borne on Nelson alone though, C Ryan Kelly has also taken a step back, perhaps even more glaring than Nelson. The Colts will need both of them to get back to their previous form if they want to improve in 2023. They play a pesky Texans team and after a thrashing at the hands of the Giants last weekend, one has to wonder whether the Colts have packed it in for the year already, and if the Bears are going to be on the clock after this weekend.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-11)
Best possible pick: 35th overall
Worst possible pick: 40th overall
Week 18: at Seattle (8-8), Sun 4:25 pm ET
Well would you look at that? The Rams have their second round pick this year. The Rams, who haven’t made a first round pick since they took Jared Goff first overall in 2016, won’t make one again this year unless they trade up. The team this year seems to be bearing the bitter fruit of going all in the past few years. It did get them a Super Bowl, so there isn’t really much to complain about, but beyond their superstars – Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, Bobby Wagner – there isn’t really a lot there. And with talk that Donald and head coach Sean McVay could pack it in after this season, there’s going to be an even bigger talent void in this organization. The Rams play the Seahawks in a game that means a whole lot to Seattle… and really the Rams have no incentive to lose either.
LAS VEGAS (6-10)
Best possible pick: 6th overall
Worst possible pick: 9th overall
Week 18: vs Kansas City (13-3), Sat 4:30 pm ET
The Raiders inexplicable playoff run may have come at a bigger price than expected. The Raiders went all in this past offseason, giving David Carr a 3 year, $121 million extension and trading for Carr’s college teammate WR Davante Adams from Green Bay. The result: under new head coach Josh McDaniels, the Raiders have fallen off, limping to a 6-10 record. To be fair, they lost only one game by more than 6 points, so there is some bad luck in this, but changes loom. Carr was excused from the team for the final two games as McDaniels will take a look at Jarrett Stidham, a player he has pretty extensive knowledge of from his days in New England. Carr’s contract isn’t as onerous at it seems either – the cap hit for cutting him this offseason is $5.625M. Granted, they would want to trade him, and with a $40M per year price tag, teams may balk, but either way it appears we are headed for a new QB in Sin City. The Chiefs come into town ready to take the first round bye in the AFC (if the Bills don’t make up last week’s game, which seems increasingly likely), the Raiders will face an extremely tough test from a team on a mission.
ATLANTA (6-10)
Best possible pick: 6th overall
Worst possible pick: 10th overall
Week 18: vs Tampa Bay (8-8), Sun 1:00 pm ET
If you looked at this Falcons roster before the season, would you have said “6-10 heading into the final week seems right?” On paper, this team didn’t seem much better than this – and maybe they were worse. The team had the eighth worst offense in the league (and only had more passing yards that the Bears), and they were fourth worst on defense (and were seventh-worst against the pass). A team that cannot gain yards and cannot defend is in trouble. There were some bright spots – Tyler Allgeier, the rookie from BYU, is at 900 yards on the season, despite starting only 6 games, and fellow rookie WR Drake London has 746 receiving yards which may not seem like a big deal, but in this offense, it’s something. Kyle Pitts? Let’s not talk about him. They’ve been giving Desmond Ridder a long look and he’s playing… like a rookie QB. They also have an anemic pass rush (as they did last year) and more resources are needed there to help with the defense. This weekend, they play a Bucs team with absolutely nothing to play for and a whole bunch of old guys who could use the week off before the wild card game. This has the look of a 10-9 get-me-outta-here special.
CAROLINA (6-10)
Best possible pick: 6th overall
Worst possible pick: 11th overall
Week 18: at New Orleans, Sun 1:00 pm ET
From playoff contender one week to top 10 pick seems incongruous but somehow fitting for this Panthers team. A train wreck under fired HC Matt Rhule has seen some stability with interim coach Steve Wilks and (*checks notes*) Sam Darnold at QB? Wilks has a 5-6 record since taking over and has been able to right the ship even after trading Christian McCaffrey to the Niners for a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick in the 2023 Draft. It seems like Wilks should lose the interim tag this offseason, but Panthers management and ownership seem more apt to make splashy moves than prudent ones, so the jury is still out there. They get to travel to New Orleans for a game that means the sum total of eff all to either team.
NEW ORLEANS (7-9)
Best possible draft pick: 41st overall
Worst possible draft pick: 48th overall
Week 18: vs Carolina (6-10), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Saints are a team living in figurative purgatory. They always perform some form of magic to stay under the cap – as of this writing they are $53M OVER the cap once again – and they are extremely aggressive at the draft, mortgaging future picks to move up and get players they like. They did that last year when they got Ohio State WR Chris Olave in the first round. This was a great pickup, but they also dealt this year’s first to Philadelphia, who will have a top 15 pick and potentially a first round playoff bye. As mentioned above, their game is meaningless in terms of the standings, so any number of things may happen there.
CLEVELAND (7-9)
Best possible draft pick: 41st overall
Worst possible draft pick: 48th overall
Week 18: at Pittsburgh (8-8), Sun 1:00 pm ET
I’m not sure if they envisioned this scenario when the season started, but the Browns find themselves playing spoiler this weekend while looking ahead to 2023. They dealt their first and third to Houston for Deshaun Watson, who has struggled in his first four games back from his suspension. However, that might’ve been expected since he hadn’t played since 2020 prior to that. The Browns have some changes to make – their pass rush is a one-man operation, while their run defense is one of the league’s worst. They also could use a secondary wide receiver and may need to replace RT Jack Conklin who is a free agent (though I imagine they’ll try to re-sign him). All that said, the Browns have a lot of talent, perhaps the best offensive line in football, and a potential Top 5 quarterback when Watson shakes off the rust.
NEW YORK JETS (7-9)
Best possible draft pick: 10th overall
Worst possible draft pick: 19th overall
Week 18: at Miami (8-8), Sun 1:00 pm ET
Heading into the Week 10 bye, the Jets were 6-3 and in first place in the AFC East, had already defeated the Dolphins and Bills, including the win over the Bills in their last game. After the bye, they imploded, losing to the Pats 10-3 on a last second punt return for a TD – a game that should be considered an abomination, the Jets managed only 103 total yards of offense. Since the bye, the Jets are 1-6 and have lost 5 in a row heading into the finale at Miami. The Pats loss was a catalyst in a bad way, and it was likely the turning point in Zach Wilson’s career. The team was apparently very unhappy with how he handled the criticism and his play has further deteriorated since then. Now, Wilson’s status as a QB is very much in question and this offseason will be very telling in the amount of work he puts in and how the Jets view his future. The Jets have a chance to play spoiler this weekend against Miami, whom they trounced 40-17 in happier times. The Dolphins are clinging to their playoff lives having lost five straight themselves.
WASHINGTON (7-8-1)
Best possible pick: 11th overall
Worst possible pick: 19th overall
Week 18: vs Dallas (12-4), Sun 4:25 pm ET
Much like Miami, this is a team of extreme peaks and valleys – Washington started the season 1-4 with Carson Wentz as QB, then he went down in a 12-7 win over the Bears (remember the consecutive hold my beer TNF frightfests?), and then the Commanders went on a 6-1 run before their tie against the Giants. They were 7-5-1 and tied with the Giants in the standings, firmly in a playoff spot. After that game, the wheels fell off, as they lost 3 games in a row, including an extremely listless home loss to the mediocre Browns last week. Of course, Ron Rivera not knowing that his team could be eliminated later that day was the icing on a rather unappetizing cake. Where does Washington go from here? Likely a new QB, as Wentz will be cut after the season and it’s somewhat apparent that they don’t view Taylor Heinicke as the #1 guy. This weekend, Sam Howell will make his debut against a Cowboys team that will have a lot of motivation. Good luck, kid.
