🚨🚨 ALL WEEKEND PICKS DUE BY 1:00 PM SATURDAY, DUE TO THE HEAVY CHRISTMAS EVE SCHEDULE 🚨🚨
Coming into this weekend, one team in the history of the NFL had come back from being down 30 points or more – the 1992-93 Bills, who found themselves down 35-3 to the Houston Oilers in the Wild Card Round. The Bills, who didn’t even sell the game out and thus caused a blackout in the Buffalo broadcast region (which, inconveniently enough, included the GTA), came back to beat the Oilers 41-38 in overtime. Last weekend, the moribund Indianapolis Colts stormed to a 33-0 halftime lead on the 10-3 Vikings, only to have the Vikings go on a 36-3 run in the second half (including 29 consecutive points) to take the game to overtime. In overtime, the Vikings needed nearly all 10 minutes, with Greg Joseph kicking a 40 yard field goal with 7 seconds left to preserve the win and keep Minny’s faint hopes alive of getting the 1 seed in the NFC.
In other news, we have just three weeks left to the end of the NFL season and there is still much to be decided. Five divisions are more or less set (some mathematical chances notwithstanding):
Divisions Clinched:
AFC WEST – Kansas City
NFC NORTH – Minnesota
NFC WEST – San Francisco
Playoff Spots Clinched:
Philadelphia – also one win or Dallas loss from clinching NFC EAST and one win or Minnesota loss and Dallas loss from clinching homefield advantage throughout playoffs
Buffalo – also one win or Miami loss from clinching AFC EAST
Dallas – clinched a playoff spot and can clinched the 5 seed with a win AND Giants loss
Divisions still up for grabs:
AFC NORTH – Cincinnati holds a one game lead over Baltimore, however Baltimore won the first matchup. These teams play in Week 18 in Cincinnati, which may decide the division.
AFC SOUTH – Tennessee (7-7) holds a one game lead over the surging Jacksonville Jaguars (yes, you read that right). Jacksonville won the first game and get the Jets and Texans on the road before a potential division deciding Week 18 game at home to the Titans. The Titans host the Texans this weekend and the Cowboys next weekend before that Week 18 showdown.
NFC SOUTH – Tampa Bay (6-8) “leads” this terrible division, holding a one game lead over the Panthers, Falcons, and Saints. The teams don’t deserve more analysis but the scenarios do, so let’s look at this turtle race a little closer:
Tampa Bay (6-8, 3-1 in division)
Remaining games: at Arizona, vs Carolina, at Atlanta
Tiebreakers: New Orleans (sweep), Atlanta
No tiebreaker: Carolina
The Bucs easiest path to the playoffs includes a win over the Panthers and another one either over the Cardinals or Falcons. A loss to Carolina puts them in significant peril, as the Panthers would have the sweep and ensure their division record is better than Tampa’s in any multi-team scenario.
Carolina (5-9, 3-1 in division)
Remaining games: vs Detroit, at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans
Tiebreakers: Tampa Bay, Atlanta (split, but better division record)
No tiebreaker: New Orleans
Carolina controls its destiny to the postseason – if they win out, they win the tiebreaker with Tampa and have a superior division record to the other teams. Even a loss to New Orleans isn’t fatal as long as they beat Tampa Bay (and realistically, if they beat the Lions too).
New Orleans (5-9, 2-3)
Remaining games: at Cleveland, at Philadelphia, vs Carolina
Tiebreakers: swept Atlanta
No tiebreakers: swept by Tampa Bay, lost to Carolina
New Orleans is in trouble with the Eagles on the schedule and a need to win 2 more games than Tampa in the last three weeks. The good news is that Philly might have the 1 seed sewn up this weekend but the bad news is that the second team for Philly might be better than the Saints. They can win the division if the Saints and Falcons both finish 8-9 (and no one else does) but there’s no other tiebreaker scenario that works in their favour.
Atlanta (5-9, 1-4)
Remaining games: at Baltimore, vs Arizona, vs Tampa Bay
Tiebreakers: none
No tiebreakers: New Orleans (sweep), Carolina (split, with worse division record). lost to Tampa
Of all the scenarios, the Falcons’ is the most dire – a 1-4 division record and a sweep by New Orleans means there’s no tiebreaker scenario for Atlanta at all, they MUST have more wins than the other three teams to take the division crown, which means they must take all three remaining games, including a win at Baltimore this weekend and they need help in the division.
APY POOL UPDATE
In the pool, strong scores were the norm this week, with Terry topping us all with an 18 point week. Terry’s big week puts him in the top 20 in the pool and in second place in mini-pool C with just three weeks to go.
Donna P remains your leader with 184 points through 15 weeks. She kept her 4 point lead over Randy and, critically, is also a full 12 points over fifth-place Tom, meaning even a collapse still doesn’t put her outside the money spots. Randy’s 180 points puts him 3 points ahead of Fred (177), and seven points ahead of Darryl (173). The big race is for the fourth spot, with Tom (172), Adam (171), Jay (171), and the Brackens (170) just off that pace.
Here are the full pool standings:
Mini Pool Updates
MPA: Mini-pool A is home to three of the four top performers in the league. In a way, this is actually good news for the rest, as Fred, Darryl, and Donna P are presently ineligible for a mini-pool prize. That leaves Joe S, Quinn, Keville, and Michelle in a tie for fourth, which is actually first, with 37 points. Darryl is at 44, which means if he falls out of the top 4, he’s a relative lock to take home the $20 MP prize.
MPB: Matt leads MPB with 43 points, just one small point over Jason R. Marcus, Anthony, and Jerome are all within striking distance, just two points off the pace. Randy is ineligible for this prize at is stands, but also has 41 points.
MPC: Steve leads the way in MPC with 43 points, one point ahead of Terry, and two ahead of the Brackens.
WEEK 16 SCHEDULE
Another reminder, that due to most of the games being played on Saturday, all picks are due by 1:00 SATURDAY, not Sunday. Make sure you get your picks in on time or they will not count.
The big two games of this weekend look to be in the 4 pm timeslot on Sunday, the Cowboys at Eagles and Commanders and Niners showdowns have tons of playoff implications. The Jags-Jets game on Thursday and the Giants-Vikings game on Saturday afternoon are also big-time matchups