Month: December 2022

As the season winds down, fans want to know where their team stands in terms of playoff eligibility or seedings therein. For some, it’s simple (yet painful), your team is out and looking forward to the 2023 NFL Draft (unless you’re a Broncos or Rams fan and you’re screwed either way). Here, we’ll outline the playoff scenarios for each team, starting with the AFC:

AFC
IN THE PLAYOFFS
Buffalo (12-3) – clinched AFC East
Kansas City (12-3) – clinched AFC West
Cincinnati (11-4)
Baltimore (10-5)
LA Chargers (9-6)
In the AFC, the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, and Chargers have all clinched playoff berths, while the Bills and Chiefs have won their respective divisions.

WILD CARD ROUND BYE
Buffalo (12-3)
Kansas City (12-3)
Cincinnati (11-4)
Only the Bills, Chiefs, or Bengals can clinch the top seed and a first round bye. Here are the scenarios which they require:
Bills: Buffalo controls its destiny – win both games and they are assured the top seed. Their Week 17 game is against Cincinnati, which is a critical game for seeding in the playoffs. If the Bills win that game, a Chiefs loss clinches the 1 seed. The Bills can also get the 1 seed at 12 wins if the Chiefs lose out and the Bengals lose to the Ravens in Week 18.
Chiefs: The Chiefs lost to both the Bills and Bengals in the regular season, so they’ll need to win out and hope the Bills lose once to get the 1 seed. If the Chiefs lose, they need the Bengals to beat the Bills this week AND have both teams to lose their Week 18 games to get homefield advantage.
Bengals: The Bengals need to beat the Bills for any 1 seed scenario to work. If they win out and the Chiefs lose once, they will get the 1 seed. They can also get the 1 seed if they beat the Bills but lose to the Ravens AND the Bills and Chiefs both lose their remaining games AND Baltimore loses to the Steelers in Week 17.

AFC NORTH
Cincinnati (11-4)
Baltimore (10-5)
The Ravens hold the head-to-head and division tiebreakers with Cincinnati, meaning the Bengals must keep their lead in wins to take the AFC North. If the Ravens lose to the Steelers and the Bengals beat the Bills this week, the Bengals win the division. In any other scenario, the Ravens-Bengals game in Cincinnati decides the division.

AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville (7-8)
Tennessee (7-8)
The winner of the Titans-Jaguars game in Jacksonville in Week 18 gets the AFC South crown and the 4 seed in the conference, regardless of what happens in Week 17. There is a wild card scenario for the Jaguars if they win Week 17 but lose Week 18, but the Titans do not have a wild card path to the postseason, so they may treat their game at home to Dallas as a tune-up.

AFC WILD CARD
Cincinnati (11-4)
Baltimore (10-5)
LA Chargers (9-6)
——————–
Miami (8-7)
Jacksonville (7-8)
New England (7-8)
NY Jets (7-8)
Pittsburgh (7-8)
Las Vegas (6-9)

The Bengals, Ravens, and Chargers are all in. Miami, losers of 4 straight, currently clings to the 7 seed but have a difficult divisional path to a postseason berth. There are four 7-win teams with playoff hopes as well.
Cincinnati could be the 6 seed if it loses both games and the Chargers win both of theirs, otherwise the Bengals are the 5 seed if they do not win the AFC North.
Baltimore could drop to the 7 seed if they lose out, the Dolphins win both their games and the Chargers win at least once, as both the Chargers and Dolphins own tiebreakers over the Ravens. A win or Dolphins loss assures the Ravens of being no worse than sixth. A win over the Steelers and a loss by the Chargers would grant the Ravens the 5 seed.
The Chargers get the 5 seed if they win both games and either the Bengals lose both games or the Ravens lose to the Bengals in Week 18. The Chargers sink to the 7 seed if they lose out and the Dolphins win out. The Chargers hold tiebreakers over the 7 win teams (aside from Jacksonville), so they cannot finish lower than any of those teams (a 9 win Jaguars team makes the playoffs as the AFC South division winner).
Both of Miami’s remaining games are of critical importance, as they go to Foxborough this week to face the Patriots, then host the Jets in Week 18. Win both games and they are in. If the Dolphins lose a game, they need the team they lost to (Pats or Jets) to lose their other game (NE at Buffalo Week 18, NYJ at Seattle this weekend). The Dolphins are eliminated if they lose both games.
New England controls its destiny – if they win both games, they are in at 9-8 as they have the tiebreaker over the Dolphins. An 8 win Patriots team also gets in if (and only if) they Dolphins lose out, the Jets beat the Dolphins but lose to the Seahawks, the Jags do not beat the Texans then lose to the Titans, and the Steelers do not win out.
The Jets need to win both games and have the Patriots lose to make the playoffs, as they hold a tiebreaker over the Dolphins but were swept by the Pats. An 8 win Jets would be eliminated.
The 7-8 Steelers, on a 5-2 run, still have a chance of not just a winning record, but of making the playoffs. Their path is very specific though – they have no tiebreakers over anyone with their poor conference record (3-7), so they need 9 wins to get in and get a lot of help. The Steelers must win both remaining games AND have all game results occur this way: NE beats MIA, NYJ loses to SEA, NYJ beats MIA, NE loses to BUF.
Jacksonville can make the playoffs if they don’t win the AFC South if: they beat Houston but lose to Tennessee, the Dolphins lose to the Pats and Jets, the Pats lose to the Bills, the Jets lose to the Seahawks, and the Steelers lose one game.
And finally, the 6-9 Raiders still have a chance to make the playoffs! They need a very specific series of events to take place:
MIA loses out (to NE and NYJ)
NE loses to Buffalo
NYJ loses to Seattle
PIT loses once
JAX wins the division or loses out
In that scenario, the Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Raiders (and possibly Titans, Jaguars, and Steelers) all have eight wins and the Raiders would win the tiebreakers over the lot of them.

NFC
IN THE PLAYOFFS
Philadelphia (13-2)
Minnesota (12-3)
San Francisco (11-4)
Dallas (11-4)
In the NFC, the Eagles, Vikings, Niners, and Cowboys have all clinched playoff berths. Minnesota and San Francisco have won their divisions, the NFC North and NFC West, respectively. The NFC East and NFC South are still up for grabs.

WILD CARD ROUND BYE
Philadelphia (13-2)
Minnesota (12-3)
San Francisco (11-4)
Dallas (11-4)
Philadelphia clinches a first round bye with a win over the Saints or Giants in the final two weeks. Losing out complicates things for the Eagles as they could be overtaken by any or all of the Vikings, Niners, and Cowboys winning out if that happens.
If Minnesota wins out and Philadelphia loses out, the Vikings get the one seed. Minnesota does not hold tiebreakers over any of the other teams, thus a 13 win Vikings team will play on Wild Card Weekend.
San Francisco takes the 1 seed if it wins out, Philadelphia loses out, and the Vikings lose at least once. The Niners are 9-2 in conference play, giving them the advantage over everyone else in the conference.
The Cowboys get the 1 seed if they win out, the Eagles lose out, and the Niners and Vikings lose at least once. The Cowboys would hold the divisional tiebreaker over the Eagles and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings.

NFC EAST
Philadelphia (13-2)
Dallas (11-4)
Philly clinches the NFC East with either a win or a Cowboys loss in the last two weeks. If the Cowboys win out and the Eagles lose out, the Cowboys win the division based on their superior divisional record.

NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay (7-8)
Carolina (6-9)
New Orleans (6-9)
The Bucs and Panthers both control their own destinies, with the Week 17 clash between the two teams in Tampa Bay being critical in determining who wins the division. Tampa wins the division with a win over Carolina, regardless of what happens elsewhere in the final two weeks.
Carolina wins the NFC South if they win out. 7 win Carolina can win the division if they beat the Bucs, Tampa loses Week 18 at Atlanta, and New Orleans loses once.
New Orleans wins the NFC South if it wins at Philly, then beats Carolina at home, if Carolina beats Tampa Bay in Week 17 and the Bucs lose at Atlanta in Week 18.

NFC WILD CARD
Philadelphia (13-2)
Dallas (11-4)
—————
NY Giants (8-6-1)
Washington (7-7-1)
Seattle (7-8)
Detroit (7-8)
Green Bay (7-8)
Tampa Bay (7-8)
The consolation prize in the NFC East title race is the 5 seed in the NFC playoff picture. Whichever of Philly and Dallas does not win the division, gets the 5 seed.
The Giants haven’t clinched but are close. They only need one win OR to have three of the 7-win teams lose once to clinch a playoff spot. They also own the tiebreaker over Washington.
The Commanders tie acts as a de facto tiebreaker over the other 7-win teams. If the Commanders win out, they make the playoffs. If they win just one game, they need Detroit, Green Bay, and Seattle to not win out to make the playoffs. They cannot make the playoffs as a 7 win team (Detroit and Green Bay face off this weekend and the winner would pass Washington in that scenario at minimum).
Green Bay, winner of three straight, is in if it wins out AND NYG lose both OR WAS loses both. The Packers are also in if they win one game and WAS, DET, and SEA all lose out. Their game against Detroit this weekend is critical for their playoff hopes.
Seattle is in if it win the last two games AND NYG lose both, WAS loses once, OR GB loses once. 8-win Seattle can also make the playoffs if WAS, GB, and DET all lose once, AND TB loses to Carolina and/or loses to ATL
Detroit makes the playoffs with two wins (one being over GB) AND NYG loses twice OR WAS loses once OR SEA loses once. 8-win Detroit is in if WAS loses twice, that win is over GB, SEA loses twice, AND TB loses to CAR and/or loses to ATL
An 8-win Buccaneers team can make the playoffs as a wild card if it loses to Carolina and beats Atlanta, WAS and SEA do not win out, and GB loses both games, and DET beats GB but loses to Chicago.

🚨🚨 ALL WEEKEND PICKS DUE BY 1:00 PM SATURDAY, DUE TO THE HEAVY CHRISTMAS EVE SCHEDULE 🚨🚨

Coming into this weekend, one team in the history of the NFL had come back from being down 30 points or more – the 1992-93 Bills, who found themselves down 35-3 to the Houston Oilers in the Wild Card Round. The Bills, who didn’t even sell the game out and thus caused a blackout in the Buffalo broadcast region (which, inconveniently enough, included the GTA), came back to beat the Oilers 41-38 in overtime. Last weekend, the moribund Indianapolis Colts stormed to a 33-0 halftime lead on the 10-3 Vikings, only to have the Vikings go on a 36-3 run in the second half (including 29 consecutive points) to take the game to overtime. In overtime, the Vikings needed nearly all 10 minutes, with Greg Joseph kicking a 40 yard field goal with 7 seconds left to preserve the win and keep Minny’s faint hopes alive of getting the 1 seed in the NFC.

In other news, we have just three weeks left to the end of the NFL season and there is still much to be decided. Five divisions are more or less set (some mathematical chances notwithstanding):
Divisions Clinched:
AFC WEST – Kansas City
NFC NORTH – Minnesota
NFC WEST – San Francisco

Playoff Spots Clinched:
Philadelphia – also one win or Dallas loss from clinching NFC EAST and one win or Minnesota loss and Dallas loss from clinching homefield advantage throughout playoffs
Buffalo – also one win or Miami loss from clinching AFC EAST
Dallas – clinched a playoff spot and can clinched the 5 seed with a win AND Giants loss

Divisions still up for grabs:
AFC NORTH – Cincinnati holds a one game lead over Baltimore, however Baltimore won the first matchup. These teams play in Week 18 in Cincinnati, which may decide the division.
AFC SOUTH – Tennessee (7-7) holds a one game lead over the surging Jacksonville Jaguars (yes, you read that right). Jacksonville won the first game and get the Jets and Texans on the road before a potential division deciding Week 18 game at home to the Titans. The Titans host the Texans this weekend and the Cowboys next weekend before that Week 18 showdown.
NFC SOUTH – Tampa Bay (6-8) “leads” this terrible division, holding a one game lead over the Panthers, Falcons, and Saints. The teams don’t deserve more analysis but the scenarios do, so let’s look at this turtle race a little closer:
Tampa Bay (6-8, 3-1 in division)
Remaining games: at Arizona, vs Carolina, at Atlanta
Tiebreakers: New Orleans (sweep), Atlanta
No tiebreaker: Carolina
The Bucs easiest path to the playoffs includes a win over the Panthers and another one either over the Cardinals or Falcons. A loss to Carolina puts them in significant peril, as the Panthers would have the sweep and ensure their division record is better than Tampa’s in any multi-team scenario.
Carolina (5-9, 3-1 in division)
Remaining games: vs Detroit, at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans
Tiebreakers: Tampa Bay, Atlanta (split, but better division record)
No tiebreaker: New Orleans
Carolina controls its destiny to the postseason – if they win out, they win the tiebreaker with Tampa and have a superior division record to the other teams. Even a loss to New Orleans isn’t fatal as long as they beat Tampa Bay (and realistically, if they beat the Lions too).
New Orleans (5-9, 2-3)
Remaining games: at Cleveland, at Philadelphia, vs Carolina
Tiebreakers: swept Atlanta
No tiebreakers: swept by Tampa Bay, lost to Carolina
New Orleans is in trouble with the Eagles on the schedule and a need to win 2 more games than Tampa in the last three weeks. The good news is that Philly might have the 1 seed sewn up this weekend but the bad news is that the second team for Philly might be better than the Saints. They can win the division if the Saints and Falcons both finish 8-9 (and no one else does) but there’s no other tiebreaker scenario that works in their favour.
Atlanta (5-9, 1-4)
Remaining games: at Baltimore, vs Arizona, vs Tampa Bay
Tiebreakers: none
No tiebreakers: New Orleans (sweep), Carolina (split, with worse division record). lost to Tampa
Of all the scenarios, the Falcons’ is the most dire – a 1-4 division record and a sweep by New Orleans means there’s no tiebreaker scenario for Atlanta at all, they MUST have more wins than the other three teams to take the division crown, which means they must take all three remaining games, including a win at Baltimore this weekend and they need help in the division.

APY POOL UPDATE
In the pool, strong scores were the norm this week, with Terry topping us all with an 18 point week. Terry’s big week puts him in the top 20 in the pool and in second place in mini-pool C with just three weeks to go.

Donna P remains your leader with 184 points through 15 weeks. She kept her 4 point lead over Randy and, critically, is also a full 12 points over fifth-place Tom, meaning even a collapse still doesn’t put her outside the money spots. Randy’s 180 points puts him 3 points ahead of Fred (177), and seven points ahead of Darryl (173). The big race is for the fourth spot, with Tom (172), Adam (171), Jay (171), and the Brackens (170) just off that pace.

Here are the full pool standings:

Mini Pool Updates
MPA: Mini-pool A is home to three of the four top performers in the league. In a way, this is actually good news for the rest, as Fred, Darryl, and Donna P are presently ineligible for a mini-pool prize. That leaves Joe S, Quinn, Keville, and Michelle in a tie for fourth, which is actually first, with 37 points. Darryl is at 44, which means if he falls out of the top 4, he’s a relative lock to take home the $20 MP prize.

MPB: Matt leads MPB with 43 points, just one small point over Jason R. Marcus, Anthony, and Jerome are all within striking distance, just two points off the pace. Randy is ineligible for this prize at is stands, but also has 41 points.

MPC: Steve leads the way in MPC with 43 points, one point ahead of Terry, and two ahead of the Brackens.

WEEK 16 SCHEDULE
Another reminder, that due to most of the games being played on Saturday, all picks are due by 1:00 SATURDAY, not Sunday. Make sure you get your picks in on time or they will not count.
The big two games of this weekend look to be in the 4 pm timeslot on Sunday, the Cowboys at Eagles and Commanders and Niners showdowns have tons of playoff implications. The Jags-Jets game on Thursday and the Giants-Vikings game on Saturday afternoon are also big-time matchups

Much time has been spent this year talking about surprises, outliers, and other unique teams, players, or situations, however, maybe it’s time to talk about something that has gone more or less according to expectations. Here are the AFC standings after 14 weeks:
1. Buffalo (10-3)
2. Kansas City (10-3)
3. Baltimore (9-4)
4. Tennessee (7-6)
—————–
5. Cincinnati (9-4)
6. Miami (8-5)
7. New England (7-6)

If on Labour Day you showed someone these standings, they’d probably nod and say “looks about right”. Buffalo and Kansas City were the two strongest teams on paper, as they are now. Cincinnati and Baltimore are embroiled in a fight to win the AFC North, while Tennessee is well on its way to another AFC South division title. The Pats made the playoffs last year as a six seed and while the Dolphins started 2021 with a 1-7 record and ultimately fired Brian Flores after the season ended, they did end the season at 9-8 so the foundation was there – and that’s before adding Tyreek Hill and the unlocking of Tua Tagovailoa. You could point to the Titans disappointing record, the Jets being 7-6, or the implosions of the Raiders and the Broncos as being surprises but the top of the conference looks about as it should. The Bills and Chiefs should be the top two teams in the conference, while the Bengals are looking very much like the team that made the run to the Super Bowl last season – the final four weeks of the season should be very entertaining.

APY NFL POOL UPDATE
In Week 14, the top scorer was Darryl, who scored 15 of a possible 17 points, correctly picking all 11 Sunday games and confidence picks therein. His big week strengthens his position, as he is now in 7th place, just 2 points out of the money spots.

At the top of the pool, Donna P continues to lead, now with 168 points which is four points clear of Randy in second place. Fred is two further points back in third place, with 162, while Tom occupies the final money spot at 159. Jay and Kevin are lurking, just one point behind Tom.

Mini-Pools
MPA: Third place Fred has the most points in MPA but would get a better prize for finishing third, so the MPA prize would drop to Darryl, who holds 7th overall but second in the mini-pool. Darryl is level with Donna P (who would take the grand prize) and four points ahead of Michelle.

MPB: Being so far out of the running in the main pool has its advantages, which your friendly (and likely corrupt) pool administrator is presently taking advantage of, leading MPB by a mere one point over Anthony and Jerome.

MPC: The Brackens have a two point lead over everyone else in MPC, as Jay and the ineligible Tom lurk in the distance. There is, of course, a danger that the Brackens (and Jay for that matter) could slip into the top 4 but I’m sure they’ll take their chances.