🦃🦃🦃THURSDAY IS US THANKSGIVING! THREE GAMES PLAYED ON THURSDAY!!! 🦃🦃🦃
The 6-3 Jets went to Foxborough to take on the Patriots last weekend having lost 13 straight against their division rivals, the last win being a game in which Patriots coach Bill Belichick won the overtime coin flip and opted to kick, leading to a Jets game winning TD. Just two weeks prior, the Pats held the Jets in check in New Jersey, winning 22-17. The Patriots had the Jets number, but that number in Week 11 was considerably smaller than expected. The Patriots held the Jets to just 103 yards of total offense, including 37 yards and just two first downs for the visitors in the second half. But perhaps the most surprising fact of this game was that the Jets had the ball with less than 20 seconds left in a tie game. Granted, it was fourth down, but with the Jets on their own 32 yard line and punter Braden Mann to unleash his 10th punt of the game, everyone was bracing for another 10 minutes of football drudgery. Thankfully (for those in attendance), Patriots punt returner Marcus Jones had other ideas – he received the punt and went 84 yards for the game-winning touchdown. The Patriots won the game and continued their ownership of the Jets franchise. Now, all 4 AFC East teams are 7-3 or 6-4 and solidly in playoff contention.
APY POOL RESULTS Week 11 was generally a good week for poolies, with Jay and Michelle each having the best of the results, with 16 points apiece. Congrats to Jay and Michelle!
Overall, Donna remains in the league, but all of the buffer is now gone, as Donna’s lead over Randy is now 1 point. The two of them have increased the distance between themselves and the rest of the field though as Adam and Salvo find themselves in third place at 118, though six points behind Randy and seven behind Donna. Tom and Fred are tied for fifth place with 117 points.
A short list of everything that happened this week: 1. The Eagles, the NFL’s last undefeated team lost… on Monday night… at home… to a sub-.500 division rival. 2. The Colts hired a head coach from ESPN (Jeff Saturday) and went in to Las Vegas and beat the Raiders. 3. Tom Brady added yet another item to his Guinness Book of World Records-sized record book by becoming the first player to win a game in four different countries (USA, UK, Mexico, and now Germany) with the Bucs win over Seattle. 4. The Denver Broncos lost 17-10, marking the fifth time they’ve lost a game while surrendering less than 20 points. Taking the under in a Broncos game is getting to Service Academy levels – the under has hit in 8 of the Broncos’ 9 games. The one time they went over? A 32-23 loss against their Week 11 opponent, Las Vegas. That game also marks the most points the Broncos have allowed and scored themselves.
Of course, all of that pales to what is already being called the game of the season between the (now) 8-1 Vikings and the Bills in Orchard Park on Sunday. The Bills went ahead 27-10 in the third only for the Vikings to claw back the lead, aided by an 81 yard touchdown run by Dalvin Cook. Late in the fourth, with the Vikes still down 27-23, Minnesota mounted a methodical drive – read: threw up jump balls to Justin Jefferson, including this stunning, contested one-handed grab on 4th-and-18 – and got it all the way to the one-foot line before Buffalo made a goal-line stand on 4th and goal (one for which I could not find on YouTube). Of course, Buffalo’s going to win, right? Ah, no… on the next play from the one-inch line, Josh Allen fumbles the snap, which is promptly pounced on by the Vikings in the end zone for the go-ahead score! This happens with 41 seconds left which, of course, is more than enough time for Josh Allen and the Bills to end regulation with a game-tying field goal, sending it into overtime. In overtime, the Vikings get a field goal, so the Bills need a score to end (or prolong) the game. With the Bills moving down the field, Allen throws this pick to end the game. That loss dropped the Bills from first in the AFC to third in their division, with Buffalo now looking up at Miami and the Jets in the division (and just one game ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East basement). The Vikings, meanwhile, are now second only to the Eagles (the only team to beat them) in the NFC standings and four games up on the Packers in the NFC Central (with the head-to-head tiebreaker).
APY POOL UPDATE Our top scorer this week was Sam, who put up 13 points, including an impressive run that included wins by Carolina, Indy, Arizona, and Detroit. With that 13, she cracks the century mark and moves into 11th place.
Overall, Donna P continues her reign over the league, despite a bit of a slip-up, and now has 113 points and a 4 point lead over Randy. Salvo is in third place with 106 points, Paul is next with 105, and then there is a log-jam in fifth, with Tom, Kevin, Adam, and Fred all tied at 103.
If you’re a baseball fan, the letters UCL have grim implications. When a pitcher has a UCL strain, it’s usually only a matter of time before the other scary initials come into play – TJ (as in Tommy John, the pitcher from the 70s who became synonymous with elbow ligament replacement surgeries). Rest can sometimes help, but you’re usually headed for a trip to Birmingham, Alabama to visit Dr. James Andrews (or LA to visit Dr. Neal ElAttrache) and taking a year away from throwing baseballs for a living. In football, UCL damage is less common, but to the Bills fans who are also baseball fans, there were likely more than a few shudders when those cursed letters started being attached to Josh Allen. The Bills are “still evaluating” the extent of Allen’s injury, which could be seen as relief or still cause for panic, depending on who you speak to. In the meantime, pool confidence picks will hinge on the diagnosis and Josh Allen’s return to play.
Midseason rankings: As we have now officially reached the halfway point in the NFL season, the midseason rankings are being done by more or less anyone with a laptop, and of course we here at APY are no exception. The full piece comes out on Thursday, but here’s a look at one team in the rankings:
23. Indianapolis (3-5-1). One wonders what would’ve happened had the Indianapolis Colts defeated the NFL’s worst team in Week 18 last season. The Colts needed only to beat the Jaguars to earn a place in the playoffs. Instead, they embarrassingly lost to Jacksonville, creating a domino effect and, ultimately, to the firing of Frank Reich on November 7th. While Carson Wentz’s time with the team was obviously (and necessarily) up after that brutal loss, a playoff berth probably means the Colts keep Wentz at the job in 2022 and Reich likely gets some relief from the coaching hot seat this season. After acquiring turnover machine Matt Ryan, the Colts plummeted from playoff hopeful to bad. Jonathan Taylor’s injuries haven’t helped to be fair, though the Colts haven’t done much even in the games he’s been healthy for. Jim Irsay hired ESPN pundit Jeff Saturday to be their interim coach, which means the weird 2022 season is likely to continue well into the second half. Biggest revelation: Parris Campbell, WR. Campbell or Alec Pierce could’ve been selected here, but the revelation goes to Campbell, a second round draft pick in 2019 who suffered through an injury-riddled first three seasons in Indy before becoming the Colts’ favoured slot option, with 32 catches so far this season. A 60-catch pace may not be something to go crazy over, but given the start to his career, this is a solid season for the former Buckeye. Biggest disappointment: Certainly Matt Ryan deserves to be here, but his career was already running on fumes, his first half just extinguished those. The offensive line as a collective has been the biggest disappointment. In 2020, this unit was arguably the best front in the league, then LT Anthony Castonzo retired and the line hasn’t been the same since. In 2022, the LT spot has been a revolving door, with Matt Pryor, Bernhard Raimann, and Dennis Kelly all struggling to take the opportunity, but perhaps the biggest disappointment is to the right of that – 3-time first team All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson and 3-time Pro Bowl C Ryan Kelly have both been mediocre at best. The Colts have surrendered 35 sacks, the most in the league – Dallas, Jacksonville, and the Chargers haven’t allowed that many sacks combined.
APY FOOTBALL POOL RECAP The pool was divided this week into two factions: 1. The successful one, the one that did NOT choose the Bills +1 2. The less successful one, the one that DID choose the Bills +1 over the Jets.
There is yet another growing faction: those that did not send a Thursday pick. It may not hurt you when a toss-up game is being played on TNF but when it’s the Eagles and Texans, people are leaving two points on the table. So make sure you get your picks in!
When talking about factions, Salvo was definitely in the first faction – he avoided the Bills confidence landmine, picked up 14 points and was out top scorer of the week! That 14 point week allowed Salvo to move into fourth place in the standings, with 97.
At the top Donna P maintains her chokehold over the rest of the league, with 106 points, a full six points over second place Randy, who is the only other poolie to crack the century mark. Fred, with 98 points, sits in third, followed closely by Salvo in fourth. Adam rounds out the top five with 96 points.
Another week, another win for the Philadelphia Eagles, this time over the cross-state rival Pittsburgh Steelers1, as the league’s only undefeated team heads into the halfway point of the season with a Thursday nighter in Houston2. Presuming the two touchdown favourites take care of business on Thursday, the Eagles would be 8-0 and looking at the back half of the schedule. With the surviving members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins looking on with champagne stocked up, here’s a look at the Eagles remaining ten games to see where their banana peel might be:
Week 9: at Houston (1-5-1). Current odds: Eagles -13. Week 10: vs Washington (4-4). First game in 2022: Eagles 24, Commanders 8 Week 11: at Indianapolis (3-4-1) Week 12: vs Green Bay (3-5) Week 13: vs Tennessee (5-2) Week 14: at NY Giants (6-2) Week 15: at Chicago (3-5) Week 16: at Dallas (6-2). First game in 2022: Eagles 26, Cowboys 17. Week 17: vs New Orleans (3-5) Week 18: vs NY Giants (6-2)
As of right now, the only game the Eagles would realistically be an underdog in is the Christmas Eve game in Dallas, while the Week 14 game against the Giants would likely be a pick ’em if the teams continue at the same pace.
From likeliest to least likely, here’s where I think Philly may lose: 1. Week 16 at Dallas: The Cowboys spotted the Eagles a 20-0 lead before the Cowboys clawed back the deficit, making it 20-17 just after the start of the fourth quarter. Philly answered with a touchdown in the fourth to put the game away. The Cowboys have the closest thing to a complete team on Philly’s schedule and the return of Dak Prescott has re-opened big play capabilities that they didn’t have with Cooper Rush. If the results go their way, the Cowboys may still be in the hunt to win the division as well, so there is expected to be a lot at play here. 2. Week 14 at NY Giants: Under Brian Daboll, the Giants have completely turned around their fortunes from past years, with the team relying on a stout defense and a lot of Saquon Barkley to get them to 6-2. Their passing attack leaves a lot to desire but two cracks at the Eagles will be litmus tests for this team. 3. Week 13 vs Tennessee: After starting of very poorly, the Titans have reeled off five wins in a row behind Derrick Henry, who has four 100-yard rushing games in a row, including a 219 yard, 2 TD performance against the Texans last week. The best approach for the Titans in general is to feed Henry, and keep the ball out of the Eagles playmakers’ hands and wear down Philly’s defense is going to be even more crucial in this game. This will also be A.J. Brown’s first game against his former team – this may work on both sides: the Eagles won’t get caught up in the potential trap game due to Brown’s extra motivation, while the Titans will be seeing this as a revenge game, as Brown agitated for a departure from the team this offseason. 4. Week 12 vs Green Bay: When speaking of a trap game, you usually don’t think of the Packers as being that kind of team. However, this season has been a disaster for the Cheeseheads, as Matt LaFleur’s Packers have already lost more games this season than any other season in LaFleur’s five years with the team. The Packers showed some signs of life against the Bills, and ran for over 200 yards against one of the league’s best defenses, so we may see a path forward for them as a sort of smashmouth running team (like the Titans). 5. Week 18 vs NY Giants: If they’re still undefeated at this point, the Giants’ January visit will be the last thing standing between the Eagles and an undefeated season, so the Eagles and Giants would both be expected to go all-out here. If not, the Eagles will likely play their reserves as the division and a first round bye will be nearly assured with their tiebreaker over the Vikings and potentially Cowboys. 6. Week 15 at Chicago: There are a lot of elements of a trap game here: this game is the second game of a three game road trip, the other two games are against hated division rivals New York and Dallas, the Bears are coming off a Week 14 bye, the weather is iffy at the best of times in Chicago in December, and the Bears represent the fifth straight game against an opponent with a strong run game. The Bears themselves have trouble stopping the run, but if they can get ahead or at least keep it close, they can control the tempo using Montgomery (if he’s still there), Herbert, and Fields. 7. Week 10 vs Washington: The Eagles dominated the Commanders on their way to a 24-8 victory that really was a lot less of a contest than the scoreline indicates (the Commanders scored a garbage time TD right at the 2 minute warning of the fourth quarter). You can come to your own conclusions as to whether the Commanders are a better team with Taylor Heinicke at QB than Carson Wentz (Heinicke is 2-0 this season as a starter) but the team is also expecting to get Chase Young back by this game so life will be a little more difficult for Jalen Hurts than it was in Week 3. 8. Week 11 at Indianapolis: The Colts really haven’t been able to get things going this season, struggling on both sides of the ball in 2022. Their win over the Chiefs looks to be an anomaly, but it did happen – mostly due to horrific special teams play by Kansas City. Something similar would need to happen here though. 9. Week 17 vs New Orleans: Coming off a shutout of the Raiders, you may be wondering why the Saints are near the bottom of this list, but this is still an inconsistent team – they looked dominant against the Raiders last week, but looked completely lost the week before against Arizona. Whether it’s Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton at QB, mistakes will not be acceptable on the road against one of the best teams in the league. 10. Week 9 at Houston: No. The Texans allow 186 rushing yards per game. In Week 8, their offense mustered just 161 total yards, which included a 90 yard drive deep in garbage time.
1 – Did you know during World War II, the Eagles and Steelers joined forces to become the Steagles? 2 – Fittingly enough, the Houston Astros are facing the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series this week, including Game 5 in Philadelphia, competing directly against this game.
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RECAP AND STANDINGS In the pool this week, Jerome was our top scorer with 17 points. Our defending champ is looking to regain his 2021 form and get back into contention for the prizes. Overall, Donna P remains our leader with 93 points, five points ahead of second-place Randy, who has 88. Darryl is in the bronze medal position with 86, while Adam and Fred are just one point back in a share of fourth place.
