WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE BUCS?

With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ugly loss in Carolina this weekend, many questions have been raised about the now 3-4 team. Most of those questions surround 45 year-old QB Tom Brady and, while we’ll touch on that later, there are more issues at play with the Buccaneers this season that play a role in the success (or lack thereof) of the team. The good news? Even with their mediocre record, Tampa Bay still leads the NFC South – the best way to describe this division includes language that is not family friendly.

Tom Brady’s play has declined compared to last season
A lot has been said about Tom Brady this season, from his leave of absence from the team due to personal matters in August, his poorer 2022 performance, and leaked details of his messy divorce (this is not a gossip column so I’ll leave that for another site). The stuff I know about, the stats, indicate that Brady has been an average QB in 2022, which of course is a far cry from 2021, when he was runner-up to MVP Aaron Rodgers (who’s having issues of his own this season).

For Brady, I compared stats from the first seven games last season to his 2022 season to this point:

Receiver Talent has dropped
The number that jumps out the most, of course, are the touchdowns: nearly half of his 43 touchdowns came in the first seven games, while he would end up leading the league in yards, pass attempts, completions. This year, he’s attempted virtually the same number of passes, with the same completion percentage, but his stats are way down. Is this an indicator of reduced arm strength? It can be, but something else is at play here too:

Godwin has been hobbled by a hamstring injury for the first few weeks, while the Bucs replaced the retired Rob Gronkowski and (the might as well be retired) Antonio Brown with Russell Gage, Cade Otton, and Rachaad White. Gage is a decent slot receiver, but replacing Brown is a tall order; Otten and White are rookies with upside, but they cannot replace Rob Gronkowski (though he only played three games). The Bucs also rolled the dice on Julio Jones, who has only been able to play two games and haul in four passes. The injuries to Godwin and Jones have exposed the Bucs lack of depth at receiver this year, which contributed greatly to their ability.

Anemic run game
The biggest weakness for the Bucs so far this season has been their woeful rushing attack – the Bucs have the league’s worst run game by yards per game (64.4) and yards per carry (3.0). Leonard Fournette has been their only back of note, but has struggled this year with 362 yards on 3.5 yards per carry. Rookie Rachaad White is the only other player to carry the football more than 10 times, but has struggled to post 71 yards on 26 carries. White is more advanced in the pass game at this point, but he’ll need to improve as the season progresses. If Fournette gets hurt, things could get even worse in this phase of the game.

Slow integration for Luke Goedeke
In the offseason, the Bucs experienced a complete overhaul of their interior offensive line: LG Alex Cappa went to the Bengals, RG Ali Marpet made the somewhat surprising decision to retire at 28, while C Ryan Jensen suffered a significant knee injury, that he may soon return from. The Bucs acquired G Shaq Mason to replace Marpet, while Robert Hainsey has filled in admirably for Jensen. However, Goedeke, a tackle at Central Michigan, has been slow to adapt to the left guard position at the pro level. This may be alleviated by the return of Jensen, potentially in November, which could move Hainsey to left guard (though he has little experience there), or they may just live with Goedeke’s growing pains – given the window for many on this team, the expectation would be that, if Goedeke doesn’t improve by the time Jensen can return, that he will be replaced.

On the other side of the field, the Bucs defense remains one of the league’s best: they’re sixth in yards allowed per play (4.9), sixth in passing yards allowed per game (190), third in sacks (22), and eighth in pressure rate (24.7%). They are middle-of-the-road against the run, but nothing to really be concerned about. They have a balanced pass rush and two of the league’s best linebackers in Lavonte David and Devin White – if anything, the defense has been propping up the offense.

With Godwin returning to full health and Ryan Jensen possibly returning to the lineup, the Bucs are hopeful that good health and continued progression of Otton and White will help lead Tampa Bay to the playoffs in what could actually be Tom Brady’s last season. With the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers sharing the division, they may not need more than 8 wins to get the job done. The prediction here is that they’ll just be able to hold off the Falcons and, with their playoff experience, may pose a challenge for the top wild card team.