Now that we are five weeks into the season, we have a pretty good glimpse into what to expect from each of the teams. Things never really move in a linear fashion when it comes to how teams play and player development, especially for the rookies and younger players, but we can take some educated guesses.
So for this update, I’ll go over the best teams, biggest surprises and disappointments, and the bottom of the NFL barrel.
Best Teams: three teams have really established themselves as being stronger than the rest through five weeks – Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. All three of these teams have explosive offenses, and the defense for the Bills and Eagles have been dominant as well – I wouldn’t call the Chiefs defensive unit dominant, but it is solid.
1. Buffalo (4-1)
Why the Bills over the undefeated Eagles? The Bills are a complete team that has dominated its opponents – even in the loss to the Dolphins, the Bills outgained their division rivals by 285 yards. The Bills have outscored their opponents 152-61, boast the best offense in terms of yards gained, and are second in yards allowed (San Francisco). They have been able to survive a number of injuries to their secondary and still have a dominant defense – their only real flaw is at RB: QB Josh Allen takes on the burden of being Buffalo’s best running back, but it could cost them in the postseason. The AFC East has been surprisingly strong, so the Bills’ schedule is by no means easy but a top seed in the AFC is definitely achievable. Interestingly, the Bills also started strong in 2021, only to have a mid-season lull. They’ll likely win the division either way, but combating complacency will be the difference between a 1-seed and a 3 or 4 seed for them.
Next four games: at Kansas City (Week 6), vs Green Bay (Week 8, SNF), at NY Jets (Week 9), vs Minnesota (Week 10).
2. Philadelphia (5-0)
The Eagles are the second-best team, but not far off the dominance of the Bills – Philly is second in yards gained and fourth in yards allowed. The Eagles might have the most balance in the league – a strong run game with Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts, a three-headed receiving monster in AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, a solid pass rush (free agent signing Haason Reddick has 4.5 sacks already), and a strong secondary (Darius Slay and James Bradberry in the same unit seems unfair). The Eagles had some eyes on them as a darkhorse team this season, but this start has exceeded even the loftiest of expectations. The emergence of the NFC East (well, Dallas and the Giants at least) has complicated what looked like a favourable schedule, but having all these strengths should only help them as the season progresses.
Next four games: vs Dallas (Week 6, SNF), vs Pittsburgh (Week 8), at Houston (Week 9, TNF), vs Washington (Week 10, MNF)
3. Kansas City (4-1)
You can’t really forget about the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes is there, though it is fair to say they’ve been overshadowed a bit by the Bills and the Eagles. I wouldn’t argue that 2022 is better than 2018 for Mahomes, but if you feel he dropped off slightly in 2021, he’s back to what we expect of him this year, which might be even more impressive given that Tyreek Hill got himself traded away to Miami in the offseason. Travis Kelce is great as always (those 4 TD receptions last night don’t hurt), and they’ve been getting solid contributions from new WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Isiah Pacheco, and Jerick McKinnon have combined to give the Chiefs a solid run game. Defensively, they’re getting contributions across the board, and CB Jaylen Watson, a 7th round pick out of Wazzu has been a pleasant surprise in the secondary across from L’Jarius Sneed. With the struggles of the rest of the division, their path to success looks a little clearer than the others, but they have a real tough test on Sunday afternoon with the Bills coming to town and then a difficult trip to somewhere near the Bay Area against the Niners.
Next four games: vs Buffalo (Week 6), at San Francisco (Week 7), vs Tennessee (Week 9, SNF), vs Jacksonville (Week 10).
Biggest Surprises: the teams that have either come out of nowhere to be decent, or were expected to be OK but have roared out of the gates, or overcome significant adversity, starting with two teams that share the same stadium:
1. NY Jets (3-2)
While the other teams are 4-1, did anyone really expect the Jets to be above .500 after five weeks? Yes, the Jets needed a miracle to beat the Browns, but they also fully deserved their wins in Pittsburgh and at home to Miami. If you look at the underlying statistics, you’ll see an adequate to decent team. They are 12th in yards gained and 10th in yards allowed and are improving in both categories week over week. Their high profile rookies RB Breece Hall (488 scrimmage yards), WR Garrett Wilson (23 rec, 288 yards, 2 TD), and CB Sauce Gardiner have all performed as the Jets would’ve hoped, helping to spur the team to their improved record. They have a challenging next four weeks heading into their Week 10 bye, but even if they fall off the pace a little, this team is beating their not-so-lofty expectations heading into the season.
Next four games: at Green Bay (Week 6), at Denver (Week 7), vs New England (Week 8), vs Buffalo (Week 9)
2. NY Giants (4-1)
The Giants 4-1 record flatters them, but I’m sure they’ll take it – their pass game and run defense are atrocious and middling respectively – but they are reaping the benefits of a healthy and rejuvenated Saquon Barkley, the direction of new head coach Brian Daboll, and some good fortune – their six recovered fumbles on defense lead the league. Their last game in London against the Packers was their most complete game against what was arguably their strongest opponent, which bears well for them as the season progresses. However, that run defense is going to get a significant test in Week 6 as the Ravens pay them a visit. On the plus side, their schedule really doesn’t get a lot tougher after that so they may see themselves in playoff contention regardless.
Next four games: vs Baltimore (Week 6), at Jacksonville (Week 7), vs Seattle (Week 8), vs Houston (Week 10).
3. Philadelphia (5-0)
See above for more on Philly’s season and their next games – this is a team that is 5-0 and really deserves to be there. Their schedule also puts them on a path to the 1 seed if they keep up their current play.
4. Dallas (4-1)
The Cowboys probably hoped they would find themselves here, but they faced a big challenge when Dak Prescott went down with a thumb injury in the opening week loss to the Bucs. Since then, the Cowboys have won four in a row with Cooper Rush under centre, which is begging another question: is there a QB controversy in Dallas? It would be unfair to give Rush too much credit though – the Cowboys have not been effective throwing the football, but have put extra emphasis on giving the ball to Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard, which has definitely paid off. Their defense is also a strong contributor, especially the pass defense, which ranks 7th in the league. The Cowboys also rank second in sacks, led by Micah Parsons, who is tied for the league lead in sacks with 6. Whenever Dak returns, the team will still need to rely on their strong defense to win games and get them within shouting distance of the Eagles for the NFC East crown.
Next four games: at Philadelphia (Week 6, SNF), vs Detroit (Week 7), vs Chicago (Week 8), at Green Bay (Week 10).
Biggest Disappointments: This is a long list and really, many teams deserve the designation, including both the Super Bowl teams, and pretty much any team that acquired a quarterback in the offseason, so keeping this list to the most undeserving teams is a challenge in itself. The Raiders are 1-4 but they lost their 4 games by combined 12 points (and six of those were in an OT loss), so they miss the cut; the Bengals and Browns are probably better than their records say they are, while the Panthers and Lions stink, but that’s not a huge surprise. The Broncos, Rams, and Colts are the biggest disappointments in the NFL this year, while the once-proud Bears and Steelers are flat out bad. Seeing the way Russell Wilson has played, you might put Denver at the top, but my list starts with the defending champions:
1. LA Rams (2-3)
There are serious issues in Los Angeles right now and it mostly revolves around the vaunted offense of Sean McVay. I’m not sure how many of those issues are his fault per se, but the team is one-dimensional on offense… but it’s not even a full dimension, it’s basically just Cooper Kupp, though that may in itself be an issue. Kupp is doing great as always, ranking first in receptions (49) and second in receiving yards (527) behind only Justin Jefferson, and has five of the team’s eight offensive touchdowns. The only other player on offense to do anything of note is Tyler Higbee (33 rec, 290 yards). The run game is anemic, Stafford leads the league in times sacked (21), both of which speaks to a porous offensive line. Stafford has also been picked off 7 times (tied with Matt Ryan for league lead) – you can live with the picks when he is doing well (he led the league with 17 last season), but when he struggles, the sacks and picks become glaring, and when you factor in the preseason reports of elbow issues, that makes it look even worse. With their tough schedule, they’ll need to fix their issues against good teams, which isn’t a great sign either.
Next four games: vs Carolina (Week 6), vs San Francisco (Week 8), at Tampa Bay (Week 9), vs Arizona (Week 10).
2. Pittsburgh (1-4)
Following the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger, one could’ve expected a drop-off in Pittsburgh… and with the general decline of talent in the Steel City in recent years, perhaps you could’ve predicted a downturn, but this much? The injury to TJ Watt in Week 1 at Cincinnati was definitely a factor – he is a game-changer and was very disruptive in their win over the Bengals, but if you need to rely on one player, it’s tough to succeed – and the Steelers have been pitiful since that Week 1 victory. The Steelers -51 point differential is, by some margin, the worst in the league. They’re fifth works in yards and third worst in yards allowed – the Bills pasted them in Week 5, but they’ve allowed 348 or more yards in each game this year. The team can be allowed a bad season, the last time they finished under .500 was in 2003 and they drafted Big Ben in the following draft. However, this has the makings of a lost season in Pittsburgh, with only the development of Kenny Pickett being something to look forward to.
Next four games: vs Tampa Bay (Week 6), at Miami (Week 7, SNF), at Philadelphia (Week 8), vs New Orleans (Week 10)
3. Denver (2-3)
After years of frustration in a lack of investment in the offensive line in Seattle, Russell Wilson orchestrated a trade away from the Falcons and to the Mile High City this offseason. Once here, the Broncos new ownership handed him a 5 year, $242M contact that could pay him $54M at the age of 40 in 2029. Now, he might not see that money, but the extension came with big expectation in Denver – this was meant to vault the team into Super Bowl contention and bring them in line with their main rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs. Five weeks in and Wilson looks like all the other quarterbacks the Broncos have used since Peyton Manning retired, only really building a rapport with WR Courtland Sutton. There are some positive signs though – the defense is third in the league in yards allowed, and the Broncos have only turned the ball over six times. Their 75 points scored though is only better than the next team on this list and something that needs rectifying soon. If Wilson’s shoulder is an issue for the rest of the season, they’re in trouble… but if he can get healthy and work through his issues, this could still be a playoff team. It has looked awful so far though.
Next four games: at LA Chargers (Week 6, MNF), vs NY Jets (Week 7), at Jacksonville (Week 8, London), at Tennessee (Week 10)
4. Indianapolis (2-2-1)
Sure, the Colts may be at .500 right now, and yes, they beat the Chiefs, but this has been a disappointing start to the season for the Colts for two reasons that are very much connected – Matt Ryan has been a turnover machine with 11 turnovers in five weeks, and the offensive line, two years ago regarded as one of the league’s best, has fallen into disrepute in 2022, along with the Rams, the Colts line have allowed the most sacks in the league (21). The team enters into a favourable part of its schedule, with the Jags (maybe not a pushover though) and Commanders upcoming, before some more tougher matchups show up later in the season, so their opportunity to turn things around starts now – hopefully with Jonathan Taylor back in the lineup.
Next four games: vs Jacksonville (Week 6), at Tennessee (Week 7), vs Washington (Week 8), at New England (Week 9)
5. Chicago (2-3)
New year, new coaching staff, same issues plaguing the Chicago Bears. The Bears are dead last (by a fair margin) in passing yards, with 583 through five games – 36 more yards than Justin Jefferson has on his own. At least the rushing offense is decent, ranking fifth in the league with 787 yards on the ground. The jury is still very much out on Justin Fields, as the Bears have attempted only 88 passes so far, 35 fewer attempts than the second-last Falcons. Fields has not shown much progression as a pocket passer in his time in the league so far, with the offensive line not giving him anywhere near the time he had when dominating at Ohio State. The Bears are locked in with Fields this year, warts and all, so they’ll hope for progress as the season wears on. However, with his limitations, it may have made more sense to build the offense around his strengths – getting on the move on designed rollouts and RPOs.
Next four games: vs Washington (Week 6, TNF), at New England (Week 7, MNF), at Dallas (Week 8), vs Miami (Week 9)
Worst Teams: And now we’ve reached the very bottom of the barrel in the NFL – the league’s truly bad teams. We know the Steelers will be here, along with the first team to fire their head coach, Carolina. Joining them on this list is the team led by longtime Carolina head coach Ron Rivera, the Washington Commanders.
1. Carolina (1-4)
The Panthers and Steelers are neck-and-neck in this list, but the Panthers win (or lose) out on this list due to their lack of direction at all levels of the franchise. The Panthers have won 3 of their past 19 games and have seen their defense drop from the 2nd best unit in the league last season to 20th. The offense? Don’t ask. Interim HC Steve Wilks is a defensive-minded coach, but fixing the rot on offense is likely a long-term initiative. Perhaps the early draft pick in 2023 will force the Panthers into getting a blue-chip QB.
Next four games: at LA Rams (Week 6), vs Tampa Bay (Week 7), at Atlanta (Week 8), at Cincinnati (Week 9)
2. Pittsburgh (1-4)
See above for more. Terrible all-around start to the season for Pittsburgh. The positives: Kenny Pickett and a strong organization. They need a significant overhaul to get back into contention in future seasons.
3. Washington (1-4)
Carson Wentz gets a lot of the blame for the Commanders’ woes, but it’s not all on him. He’s not completely faultless though, as his penchant for boneheaded decisions has followed him from Philly to Indy and not to the nation’s capital – his six interceptions are among the league leaders, and four of those six picks have been in the fourth quarter. On defense, the team has not been able to stop opposing offenses, and has created just one turnover in five weeks. When paired with Wentz’s turnovers, you get a struggling team.
Next four games: at Chicago (Week 6, TNF), vs Green Bay (Week 7), at Indianapolis (Week 8), vs Minnesota (Week 9).
APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL: WEEK 5 RESULTS AND STANDINGS
After five weeks, the pool remains very tightly pack, but one person reigns over everyone: Donna P has 58 points, which is one more than Randy. Paul, Marcus, and Anthony all find themselves in a tie for third with 56 points, and Fred is just one point further back at 55.
The top scorer this week is Adam, who scored 16 points for the second week in a row (back to back shoutouts!) and now finds himself in the top 10. Adam was in 43rd place after three weeks, so it just goes to show you that your fortunes can change pretty quickly in this pool (also that it’s better to stink early than to stink late!)
APY POOL STANDINGS
Good luck to everyone in Week 6!