Month: September 2022

While not all teams are created equal, the standings through the third week of the season show parity throughout the league, as only two teams (Philadelphia and Miami) are undefeated at 3-0, while only two teams (Houston and Las Vegas) are winless. Interesting to note out of those four teams, Houston is the only team that is not a surprise to have started the season this way. This week, we’ll take a look at these four teams and look how they got here and what to expect as the season goes on.

First, the undefeated teams:
Philadelphia (3-0)
First three weeks: W at Detroit (38-35), W vs Minnesota (24-7), W at Washington (24-8)
Next three games: vs Jacksonville (2-1), at Arizona (1-2), vs Dallas (2-1)
Points for: 86 (5th)
Points against: 50 (7th)
Philadelphia has most potent offense in the league through three weeks, totaling 1341 yards, including 8.5 yards per pass attempt, which easily outpaces the league. Duel threat QB Jalen Hurts has received extensive praise for his passing (916 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) and rushing (167 yards, 3 TDs) and has seen his odds for MVP improve dramatically (DraftKings has him at +600). A.J. Brown (20 rec, 309 yards, 1 TD) has added an elite receiving threat the Eagles haven’t had since T.O., while DeVonta Smith might be the next – he didn’t catch a pass in Week 1 but still has 15 catches for 249 yards, including an 8/169/1 line against the Commanders in Week 3. Add underrated TE Dallas Goedert (11/168/1), and a solid 1-2 rushing attack with Hurts and Miles Sanders (45/222/1) and the Eagles offense looks for real. It should be noted that the Lions and Commanders defenses range from mediocre to awful but hard to deny the results so far.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles have allowed only 890 total yards. The cornerback combo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry have been dominant (just ask Justin Jefferson in Week 2) and the defensive front have been getting to the quarterback, with the team’s 12 sacks ranking them second in the league behind the Cowboys. After a down 201 by his standards, DT Fletcher Cox appears to be terrorizing defenses from the interior, racking up 3 sacks in 3 games (including 1.5 sacks of Carson Wentz in Week 3).
Future prognosis: The Eagles schedule looks tougher now than it did at the beginning of the season, but still looks to be in their favour. It’s conceivable that they go into their bye at 6-0, but all of the next three teams are in the “tougher than they look” category. Even with the NFC East being better this season, the Eagles have the inside track on the division and could easily win 12 games in 2022.

Miami (3-0)
First three weeks: W vs New England (20-7), W at Baltimore (42-38), W vs Buffalo (21-19)
Next three games: at Cincinnati (1-2), at NY Jets (1-2), vs Minnesota (2-1)
Points for: 83 (8th)
Points against: 64 (16th)
Under rookie head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins find themselves at the top of the AFC after three weeks with a 3-0 record, one that has been driven by a dynamic passing attack and a lot of good fortune. First, the good: Miami is fourth in the league in total passing yards (874) with a revitalized Tua Tagovailoa (925 pass yards, 8 TD, 2 INT) and a two-headed monster in second-year WR Jaylen Waddle (19/342/3) and new acquisition Tyreek Hill (21/317/2). After a tumultuous first two seasons, Tua has found a coach who will work to his strengths (accuracy, short-to-intermediate passes) and personnel suited to those strengths. The deep passing game is also there when needed (Tua is second in the league in completion percentage over 20 yards) but the team’s strength is getting the ball to its playmakers (Waddle and Hill) in space, wherever they may be.
Defense is a different story, the Dolphins have allowed the second-most yards in the league, and while they were able to create pressure on Bills QB Josh Allen in Week 3, the team surrendered nearly 500 yards to the Ravens and Bills in consecutive weeks. The Dolphins blitz 25% of the time (around league average) but they send 6 or more on many of those blitzes and can leave the secondary vulnerable if they do not pressure the quarterback.
The run game is also a big issue in Miami – Raheem Mostert (24/78/0) and Chase Edmonds (23/79/2) have not been utilized much, nor especially effective when asked to carry the ball. The team does generally use the short passing game as a sort of replacement for the run game, but at 192 yards per game, the Dolphins have the second-worst rushing attack. This sort of one-dimensional offense may hurt them as the season wears on (and especially in the playoffs).
Future prognosis: The Dolphins are indeed 3-0, but could easily be 1-2 if not for a miracle comeback in Baltimore and some uncharacteristically sloppy play by a Bills team affected by the south Florida heat. The team needs to patch holes in its defense and will be tested by the Bengals and Vikings in the upcoming weeks, not to mention the rest of their schedule. That said, they’ve faced two of the league’s best passing attacks and have come out undefeated. This team should compete for a playoff spot on the strength of their offense, but really needs to improve defensively to look at winning the division or being a true contender for a Super Bowl.

Now for the winless teams
Houston (0-2-1)
First three games: T vs Indianapolis (20-20), L at Denver (16-9), L at Chicago (23-20)
Next three games: vs LA Chargers (1-2), at Jacksonville (2-1), BYE, at Las Vegas (0-3)
Points for: 49 (26th)
Points against: 59 (12th)
If you looked at Houston’s roster heading into this season – or the underlying statistics from the first three games – you’d likely not be surprised by Houston’s record so far this season (perhaps except for the tie). If you look at the scores, you see a team that is in games each week and for a team like Houston, being a tough team to play is a positive attribute. Four rookies – CB Derek Stingley Jr, G Kenyon Green, S Jalen Pitre, and RB Dameon Pierce – have all started and played extensively in the first three weeks: Pitre looks like a star at safety for the Texans, and has shown the ability to play centre field in Lovie Smith’s cover 2, and Pierce (46/182/1) has been workmanlike in his first three weeks, but had nearly all of the Texans’ carries in Weeks 2 and 3 and did not embarrass himself. The first rounders, Stingley and Green, are works in progress at this point.
QB Davis Mills (662 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) has been poor to this point in the season and, aside from Pierce, WR Brandin Cooks is the only player to have really impressed in the first three weeks. The defense is a mess, the Texans have allowed an abysmal 607 yards rushing (including 281 against the Bears in Week 3), making them by far the worst defense in the league (the Bears and Seahawks are tied for second-worst at 471). The Bills and Jaguars have each allowed fewer total yards than the Texans’ average. That said, the Texans have been good (fortunate?) in the defensive red zone, allowing just 40% of the opposition’s red zone visits to result in touchdowns, fifth-best in the league.
Future prognosis: The Texans are still in the early stages of a long and painful rebuild – this team will legitimately challenge for the first overall pick – but as is the case with young teams, there is hope that some of the issues we see early in the season will be considered learning moments and improved upon as the season progresses. However, anything more than four wins would be a minor miracle in Houston.

Las Vegas (0-3)
First three games: L at Chargers (24-19), L vs Arizona (29-23, OT), L at Tennessee (24-22)
Next three games: vs Denver (2-1), at Kansas City (2-1), BYE, vs Houston (0-2-1)
Points for: 64 (10th)
Points against: 77 (26th)
The Raiders have lost their first three games by a combined 13 points, all to teams that were expected to be, at worst, in the playoff hunt heading into the 2022 season. Interestingly, none of those three teams have really lived up to offseason hype (much like the Raiders) but all of whom scored victories over the Silver and Black. The Raiders have not done anything particularly well to start the season: QB Derek Carr has thrown for 850 yards, but has also turned the ball over five times; Maxx Crosby has 2 sacks for Las Vegas, but the rest of the team has ZERO; Josh Jacobs has been adequate running the ball, but the Raiders have not hit the 100 yard rushing mark in any of its first three games; and following his 141 yard debut, Davante Adams has totaled 7 catches for 48 yards in the past two weeks. This is a team that looks very top heavy, and at an average age of 27 years, 3 months, is also one of the league’s oldest.
Future prognosis: The Raiders were able to sneak into the playoffs in the last game of the season, after some questionable moves by Chargers HC Brandon Staley helped gift the Raiders the final game of the regular season. Making the playoffs and their subsequent close loss to the AFC champion Bengals may have given the Raiders a misguided sense of being close to Super Bowl contention, especially when making the big trade with the Packers for Davante Adams, which cost them their first and second round picks. The AFC West is weaker than it was to start the season, but still formidable, and the schedule still does Las Vegas no favours this season. The team was able to fight all sorts of adversity in 2021, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll be able to overcome the more mundane version offered in 2022.

APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RECAP AND STANDINGS
Another week, another round of upsets in the NFL, as the Indianapolis Colts got their first win of the season at the expense of Kansas City (and their special teams implosion), and in what might be the shocker of the season so far, the now 2-1 Jacksonville Jaguars annihilated the Chargers 38-10 in Inglewood. The Chargers were banged up heading into the game, with Justin Herbert nursing a painful rib cartilage injury and the team missing several key players, but this game also said a lot about the state of the Jacksonville Jaguars who are now coming off two very convincing victories over what are, on paper, two playoff-calibre teams (of course neither team has looked that way this year). QB Trevor Lawrence has improved even over the course of three weeks in this season and the defense looks strong (LB Devin Lloyd is an absolute stud). Ignore the talk about them being “the team to beat in the AFC”, they need to do more to prove that, but this team is absolutely not a team to blindly throw confidence picks against anymore.

After three weeks in the pool, our leader is rookie Anthony Saccucci, with 32 points. Anthony leads by two points over Marcus, Gary, Michelle, and Anthony’s father, Joe. Kevin, the Predictor, Donna, Keville, and Fred all round out the top 10 with 29 points apiece. Our top scorer this week was Jason Gogna with 13 points! Jason was able to avoid the landmines (KC and Chargers) and won all of his confidence picks. His big week put him into a tie for 11th place.

Here are the standings after 3 weeks:

To paraphrase a quote from Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver, momentum is only as good as next week’s game. The NFL is unlike other sports in that a one-in-seventeen sample is a lot more significant than a one-in-eighty-two sample in the NHL or NBA, or a one-in-one-hundred-sixty-two sample in MLB. However, a one-game sample is hardly definitive, and the next one-game sample can be completely different from the previous. We tend to go right along with the trends, shifting our opinions week-over-week, or quarter-over-quarter, or even minute-over-minute.

Think about what we thought of these teams, at any given time and what we think about them now:
Is Minnesota the team that beat up on a top contender in the NFC in Week 1, or are they the team that got totally dominated by Philly in Week 2?
Conversely, is Green Bay the team with the directionless team we saw in Minneapolis, or the strong-defensive minded team we saw in Week 2 against Chicago?
Things can even change quarter-over-quarter: in Baltimore, the Ravens looked to be ready to coast, with a 35-14 lead over the Dolphins heading into the fourth quarter. Then the floodgates opened and the Dolphins mounted an improbable comeback, scoring four touchdowns in the final frame to win 42-38. Now we’re all exalting Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa as the second coming.
Minute over minute? The Browns were seconds away from having a big jump on the rest of the AFC North – they were about ready to move to 2-0 after a Nick Chubb touchdown run with just inside 2:00 left, but then the Jets (YES, NEW YORK JETS) scored two touchdowns (and recovered an onside kick) in the final 90 seconds to pull off a crazy 31-30 win. Is Chubb at fault for not falling down at the 1 or 2 yard line instead of going in for that score? Or maybe, just maybe, the Browns could’ve done more to seal the victory on defense and special teams. What do you think, Grant Delpit and Denzel Ward? No need to answer gentlemen, and sorry if I interrupted your Sunday stroll in the park.

APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RESULTS AND STANDINGS
All that to say that perceptions can change quickly and it’s never too early to change your minds, nor is it too late to wait for a bigger sample size to formulate your opinions. When you look at the pool standings, you see Nigel and Tyler at the top. In the first week, Nigel and Tyler both put up 8 points which, on the face of it, wasn’t terrible. It was better than the average, just not among the top players. This week though, they both amassed a season-high 15 points, to take the lead at 23 points, along with Jason R. If we continue the analogy, Jason is like Tampa Bay, putting up two solid performances in Week 1 and 2 and keeping his spot in the lead. Gary, Fred, and Michelle are right on their trails, with 22 points of their own, and Terry, Steve, Marcus, and Ronda round out the top ten with 21 points. By the end of next week, we may be looking at a whole new leaderboard and people who we thought were out of it, sneak back in. All that said, credit to Nigel, Tyler, and Jason for their strong showings after 2 weeks and good luck to all of you as the season wears on.

…

In this article, I’ll do a summary on each division and team within it, identifying a key talking point and something to watch for from each team as the season progresses. There’s been a lot to unpack so let’s get right into it, starting with today’s piece on the AFC East.

AFC EAST
Overview: after two weeks, the members of the AFC East have a combined record of 6-2, with one of those losses being in the division. The Bills and Dolphins have flown out of the gates with two straight wins, while the Patriots and Jets both secured away wins against AFC North opposition in week two. The outlook on the Bills was strong, and we were aware that Miami had potential – after two weeks, the Bills are still the favourite to win the division (and perhaps win it all), but with Miami’s offense looking strong, the Dolphins are closing the gap. New England looks like a .500-level team that will need its defense to shine week-in, week-out, while the Jets are still on their long trail to respectability. The Jets miracle comeback against the Browns helps in the standings and will also help morale, but should they be expected to improve in the hyper-competitive AFC?

BUFFALO BILLS (2-0), next opponent: at Miami.
KEY TALKING POINT: The Bills might have the league’s most dominant offense AND defense. Buffalo followed its dominant opening night win over the defending champion Rams with an evisceration of conference nemesis, Tennessee. No team has scored more points on offense, and only the Bucs have allowed fewer points on defense. They are third in total yards on offense, second best in yards allowed on defense (on 3.6 yards per play, a half yard less on average than anyone else). They’d made all their field goal attempts and two of their three punts were muffed by the receiving team. This is a scary team that should be in everyone’s conversation of Super Bowl favourites.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Can injuries be the one thing that slows Buffalo down? The Bills went into their second game without DT Ed Oliver, DT Tim Settle and WR Gabe Davis, and lost CB Dane Jackson to a serious-looking neck injury, S Micah Hyde to another potential neck injury, and LB Matt Milano and DT Jordan Phillips also left the game early. Fortunately, Jackson had full movement in his extremities, but there is a concern for a neck fracture, which would put him out of the lineup for a while. The Bills went with two rookies, Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam, as their outside cornerbacks after the injury. While the Bills play zone almost exclusively on defense, this could cause problems, especially if Hyde also needs to miss time with his injury.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-0), next opponent, vs Buffalo
KEY TALKING POINT: Tua has been unlocked. After two tumultuous seasons, it appears that Tua Tagovailoa’s skillset has been optimized by new coach Mike McDaniel, along with his speedy receiving targets Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tua exploded in the second half comeback against the Ravens, throwing for 469 yards and six touchdowns. Both Waddle and Hill had 11 receptions and over 170 yards and 2 TDs apiece on Sunday. The Dolphins have schemed both Waddle and Hill (especially Hill) to get the ball in space on short throws, which has also opened up deeper pass plays for the two. At the moment, the Dolphins are overly reliant on Waddle and Hill, as no other player has more than 48 receiving yards, but this is a tough duo to stop.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Dolphins pass rush and passing defense look shaky. The Dolphins did get to Mac Jones, with a Brandon Jones strip sack resulting in a defensive touchdown in Week 1, but the Dolphins have just two sacks and are allowing a league-worst 9.0 yards per pass attempt (and a league-worst 6.9 yards per play on defense). Their two sacks and 10.9% pressure rate on passes are also among the league’s worst. While Tua and the Dolphins were able to perform magic on offense, Lamar Jackson had his way with their defense – they’re not alone in having trouble containing Jackson, but the conference is full of dynamic offenses. Trouble now could mean trouble later too. This weekend’s matchup with the Bills will be another yardstick for the Dolphins as the Bills defense is unlikely to be as forgiving as the Ravens but just as explosive on offense, if not more so.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-1), next opponent: vs Baltimore
KEY TALKING POINT: Much like the New England team that made it to the postseason last year, the Patriots success will be predicated by its defense. Their defense has allowed the fourth-fewest yards in the league, which includes what appears to be a high-octane Dolphins attack, and 34 points, which is in the top 10 (and includes a defensive score by Miami in Week 1). Their six sacks put them in the top ten in the league, and they are a team that uses pressure, blitzing 30% of the time. If the Patriots are going to challenge for a playoff spot this year, they’ll need more of the same.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Can the offense turn it around? Matt Patricia and Joe Judge being assigned to run the Patriots offense cause head scratches around the league, and that befuddlement has only increased after the first two weeks. They are in the bottom 10 in total yards on offense and have only visited the opposing red zone four times in two games (only Cowboys, Texans, and Seahawks have been there fewer times than New England). Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson is a decent 1-2 punch at RB but the receiving corps lacks talent, which may put a ceiling on New England’s potential. Bill Belichick and his staff will be tasked with getting the most out of this unit this season, though there is a lot of skepticism surrounding whether it is possible.

NEW YORK JETS (1-1), next opponent, vs Cincinnati
KEY TALKING POINT: Passing-heavy offense with Joe Flacco. In their first two games, the Jets threw the ball a league-high 104 times, 15 times more than second place Cincinnati (89). At least part of that is circumstance – they fell behind early against Baltimore and drew up 62 pass plays in that game. It will be interesting to see how this changes, if at all, when Zach Wilson is ready to come back from his meniscus tear – likely in October. Garrett Wilson has impressed early, catching 12 passes for 154 yards and 2 TDs in his first two NFL games.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Will the Jets improve on 2021? With their improbable win over the Browns, the Jets stand at 1-1 and have won as many games on the road as in all of last year. The Jets were second-worst in the league in point differential at -194 but did have a couple notable wins over the Bengals and Titans. That said, there’s some good new talent here, Wilson, Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner to name a few, and this roster will take some time to fill out and grow. This year looks to be more of a transition year but improving on the 4-win season a year ago should be achievable.

Before getting into the week that was, here are the numbers for the 2022 APY NFL Football Pool:
There are 48 members of the pool, up from 44 one season ago.
Thank you to Sam, Joe L, and Terry, and Paul as your recruiting efforts helped bring new people into the pool!
The new members are:
Tyler
Fred
Kyle
Jeremy
Randy
Anthony
Mark
Sawyer
and Michelle, who returns to the pool
Welcome aboard everyone!

48 members at $20 each means the total pot is $960.
And here’s how the pot will be divided:
First Place: $650 (67.7% of total pot)
Second Place: $150
Third Place: $80
Fourth Place: $20
Three mini-pools of 16 participants: $20 to the winner of each
Details on the three mini-pools will be provided towards the start of the mini-pools in Week 13.

For those who have yet to pay (my records show two people are short), I will follow up for payment. If payment is not provided, those players will be removed and the pot will be reduced. It’s only happened once in the million years I’ve been running this pool, so everything should be handled without issue.

APY POOL RESULTS – WEEK 1

The first week of NFL action is in the books, as is the first week of results in the APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL. There were a number of upsets in the NFL this week, with losses by Cincinnati, Tennessee, and Denver… and the tie by Indianapolis*… all cause pain to the poolies this week, costing a number of confidence losses.
* – see below

Despite all the wild events of week 1, we had three people score 12 points apiece: Jason R, Keville, and Michelle all topped the charts this week, with Ronda following closely behind with 11. Congrats Jason, Keville, and Michelle!

We know that the days following Week 1 bring out the crazies who think the world is coming to an end because something unexpected happened. I’ve attempted to bring some sense to the madness (but think I just made it worse). Judge for yourself:
CHIEFS 44, CARDINALS 21
KANSAS CITY: Tyreek Who? Patrick Mahomes had a near-perfect game, with a 30/39, 360 yard line with FIVE touchdown passes. Just as impressive was the performance of the defense, which held the Cardinals to 122 yards in the first three quarters, before the Cardinals were able to mount two TD drives in garbage time. The Chiefs are a contender and this game was to remind anyone who might’ve felt otherwise.
ARIZONA: After the game, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury bemoaned the team’s lack of effort in practice leading up to the game. That’s disconcerting, especially after news started surfacing about a film study requirement in Murray’s monster contract extension and his reluctance to put in extra work. Being this unprepared for a team of Kansas City’s calibre is asking for a beat down. Both the Cardinals and Packers appeared to be unprepared for Week 1, which is far from good but also correctible. It’ll be up to both teams to put in the necessary work to put in the work and bounce back in Week 2.

Check here for more!

APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL STANDINGS

Whether winning, losing or (ahem) tying, the results of the first week of the NFL season throw everyone into a panic. Bad results are especially panic-inducing, of course, but wins can have fans envisioning the playoffs or better. With that in mind, real quick hit analysis on whether the panic button should be mashed immediately… or if you should be planning for a parade.

BILLS 31, RAMS 10
BUFFALO: Plan the parade? Maybe. Tough to that far for or a championship-starved city like Buffalo, but this team looks great on paper and delivered on Thursday, with an evisceration of the defending champion Rams. Von Miller and the defensive front for the Bills was in the Rams backfield all night and Stefon Diggs caused a lot of trouble for the Rams secondary. Then there was this tone-setting stiff arm by Josh Allen. The Bills were great in Week 1 and are a very real Super Bowl contender.
RAMS: Panic time? Not yet. They ran into a very motivated buzzsaw in the Bills. Another team with Super Bowl aspirations, they won’t be very happy with how they were handled in their home stadium, but this loss will be something they’ll need to learn from. The Atlanta Falcons visit them this week and it could get ugly.

STEELERS 23, BENGALS 20
PITTSBURGH: What you see is what you get in Pittsburgh. The defense kept them in the game and getting anything out of the offense will be a challenge. Even moreso now, as RB Najee Harris suffered a high ankle sprain late in the game. On defense, the injury for TJ Watt will be damaging, though the performance of Minkah Fitzpatrick (doing his best Troy Polamalu impression in Week 1) and LB Alex Highsmith give them hope they can overcome the injuries.
CINCINNATI: Panic time? No. The Bengals did everything they could to lose this game – five turnovers by Joe Burrow, including a pick-6 by Fitzpatrick, 7 sacks against, special teams gaffes – but they still had two chances to win the game in spite of that. Cincinnati goes to Dallas, a team that (as we’ll discover later) is an 0-1 team that is in much more of a bind.

COLTS 20, TEXANS 20
This tie was more like a loss to the Colts and a win to the Texans (especially given their decision to punt with 26 seconds left in OT).
INDIANAPOLIS: Panic? This game shouldn’t really change anyone’s perception of the Colts. They are still a good team that is very much dependent on Jonathan Taylor to succeed. Taylor did succeed here, turning 31 carries into 161 rushing yards and a TD. If you had them slotted in to win 10 games and challenge for a playoff spot, you won’t need to change your opinions.
HOUSTON: The Texans played their division rivals tough, but ultimately are a rebuilding team that was more than happy to take a home tie. That should be enough to tell you about their chances this season.

EAGLES 38, LIONS 35
PHILADELPHIA: A three point win over the Lions is not reason to start planning any parades. The offense with new WR A.J. Brown and their two-pronged rushing attack with Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders looks really good. The Lions defense though is very bad, so managing expectations is important here – especially when the Lions are able to put up 35 points on your defense. The Eagles schedule is pretty favourable, and the playoffs are definitely in their sights.
DETROIT: The offense looked good, especially D’Andre Swift, who ran for 144 rushing yards and a TD. The defense was thought to be pretty thin and they confirmed it here, giving up 38 points to Philadelphia. This team could win 6-7 games on the strength of its offense if things go their way, but anything more than that would be surprising.

SAINTS 27, FALCONS 26
NEW ORLEANS: After falling behind by 16 points in the fourth quarter, the Saints were able to fight back and win the game on a 51 yard field goal by Wil Lutz. New Orleans will be happy with the performance of new WR Jarvis Landry (7 rec, 114 yds) , returning WR Michael Thomas (5-57-2 TDs), and Taysom Hill, who ran for a 81 yards and a TD. On defense, the Falcons run game caused them problems, with Cordarrelle Patterson and Marcus Mariota combining for 192 yards on the ground. A 26-10 loss to Atlanta would’ve caused some panic, so the come-from-behind win helped Saints fans a lot.
ATLANTA: Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is not a good thing. Atlanta was expected to be among the worst teams in the league, so this loss does nothing to change perceptions.

DOLPHINS 20, PATRIOTS 7
NEW ENGLAND: Panic time is here in New England. The offense looked awful, gaining just 271 total yards and turning the ball over three times, including a sack-fumble of Mac Jones that was recovered by Melvin Ingram for a touchdown. Like last year, the defense should keep them in games but their offense needs to improve considerably if they want to make the playoffs.
MIAMI: The Dolphins can be buoyed by the performance of the Miami passing game. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 270 yards and a TD and appeared to have a good rapport with Tyreek Hill (8-94-0). Mike McDaniel’s game plan played to Miami’s strengths – short passes to Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and a gutsy call to go for it on fourth-and-7 led to the Dolphins lone TD on offense and resulted in a colourful comment from Hill after the game.

RAVENS 24, JETS 9
BALTIMORE: A workmanlike Week 1 victory for the Ravens which should neither inspire extreme confidence or cause undue concern.
JETS: If you run 62 pass plays for 37-year-old QB Joe Flacco, you can’t be surprised by a result like this.

COMMANDERS 28, JAGUARS 22
JACKSONVILLE: There is a lot of work left to do in Jacksonville. They were able to mount a comeback in the second half from 11 points down, but an inconsistent outing from Trevor Lawrence didn’t do much to answer any questions about how he’ll improve on a poor rookie season. If you thought they’d win more than four games this season, feel free to start panicking.
WASHINGTON: The Commanders needed a late touchdown drive to beat the moribund Jaguars at home. Carson Wentz showed a little of everything – good counting states (27/41, 313, 4 TD, 2 INT) and some bad decision making on two fourth quarter INTs. This will be a 6-8 win team.

BEARS 19, NINERS 10
I’m taking everything I saw in this game with a grain of salt. How is anyone going to have definitive takes after watching these two teams play a game on a giant Slip N Slide? Second year QBs Trey Lance and Justin Fields both struggled, but anybody would. The best part of this game was when the Bears offense all slid on the field after the final kneel down at the end of the game.

BROWNS 26, PANTHERS 24
CLEVELAND: A good win on the road with their backup QB in a game where the other team had a lot of motivation to beat them. Not only that, but Cade York has a big leg and drilled a clutch 58 yard FG with 8 seconds left to secure the win. If they can be in the 5-6 win range when Deshaun Watson comes back, this is a playoff team, and wins like this one help.
CAROLINA: The defense is strong but the offense is very inconsistent. The Panthers had four scoring drives, but on their other 7 drives, they had 15 combined yards. The knock on Baker Mayfield isn’t that he’s a bad quarterback, but he is not an upper echelon player that will make a bad offense good or a good offense great. The defense will win some games for them this year, but they don’t look like a playoff team. Matt Rhule’s seat got a little bit hotter with this loss.

VIKINGS 23, PACKERS 7
GREEN BAY: This was a really bad first week for Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers was uncharacteristically bad against an NFC North opponent, turning the ball over twice and putting up a 22/34, 195 yard, 0 TD line before Jordan Love took over in the fourth quarter. As mentioned leading up to the season, the Packers receiving corps is very inexperienced, and there may be growing pains, especially early. The performance of the defense may have been even more troubling, especially as Justin Jefferson was left wide open on two big receptions, on his way to 184 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. There are parts of this loss that should be concerning, but the defense should be better and likely will be. Green Bay has been here before and usually rights the ship.
MINNESOTA: This was a great opening week for Minnesota. Not only did they beat their division rival/nemesis, but all phases of the game looked pretty good. They played like a playoff team in Week 1, though repeat performances are needed before boosting them any higher than a 9-10 win team.

GIANTS 21, TITANS 20
GIANTS: The Giants won the game on a bold two-point conversion late in the fourth quarter. Brian Daboll seemed to have a good gameplan for this game, relying on Saquon Barkley and the run game to lead the offense with a light sprinkling of passing from QB Daniel Jones. If the Giants have any aspirations of playoff football, Barkley must remain healthy and play like he did in Week 1.
TENNESSEE: The Titans should’ve won this game. The Giants mounted a valiant comeback from 13 points down, but a muffed punt deep in Titans territory and a missed 47 yard field goal by Randy Bullock with no time left cemented the loss for Tennessee. Run defense is something to watch for here, as the Giants had 238 yards rushing on 7.4 yards per carry but Tennessee is still likely the best team in the AFC South.

CHARGERS 24, RAIDERS 19
LAS VEGAS: Aside from Davante Adams (10-141-1), the Raiders offense was terrible, with Derek Carr throwing three interceptions and Las Vegas being fortunate in not losing any of their three fumbles. Even still, they had a chance to win on the last possession of the game, before turning the ball over on downs. CHARGERS: The Chargers should’ve really put this game away, as Justin Herbert had a very good and efficient game (26/34, 279 yards, 3 TD) and the defense grabbed three interceptions off Carr. Their run game is something to watch though, as they went for 76 yards on just 2.5 yards per carry. Running has been reduced in importance in some NFL offenses (Chargers included), but a lack of a strong run game may hurt them late in games in the future. Even still, this team has the talent to win 11-12 games and be in the hunt of a ridiculously strong division and conference.

CHIEFS 44, CARDINALS 21
KANSAS CITY: Tyreek Who? Patrick Mahomes had a near-perfect game, with a 30/39, 360 yard line with FIVE touchdown passes. Just as impressive was the performance of the defense, which held the Cardinals to 122 yards in the first three quarters, before the Cardinals were able to mount two TD drives in garbage time. The Chiefs are a contender and this game was to remind anyone who might’ve felt otherwise.
ARIZONA: After the game, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury bemoaned the team’s lack of effort in practice leading up to the game. That’s disconcerting, especially after news started surfacing about a film study requirement in Murray’s monster contract extension and his reluctance to put in extra work. Being this unprepared for a team of Kansas City’s calibre is asking for a beat down. Both the Cardinals and Packers appeared to be unprepared for Week 1, which is far from good but also correctible. It’ll be up to both teams to put in the necessary work to put in the work and bounce back in Week 2.

BUCCANEERS 19, COWBOYS 3
TAMPA BAY: Much attention was paid to just how bad the Cowboys were in this game that the Buccaneers got little to no scrutiny. The defense was strong, getting past a poor Cowboys offensive line to sack the Cowboys QBs four times, get 7 tackles for losses, and deflect six passes. The Bucs also got a big game from Leonard Fournette (21-127-0), though Tom Brady had a game that was just ok (18/27, 212, TD, INT). The Bucs didn’t have to do much but their red zone efficiency is an area that needs improvement. The Bucs looked like a playoff team not playing at their best.
DALLAS: RED ALERT!!! Before Dak Prescott went down with a thumb injury that will cost him 6-8 weeks, the Cowboys offense looked disjointed. Beyond CeeDee Lamb and injured Michael Gallup, the wide receiver options are sparse in Dallas and this game exposed that. Now that Prescott will miss up to two months, the panic button has been pressed. When Dak suffered the broken and dislocated ankle in 2020, they lost 6 of their next 7 games before Andy Dalton was signed and nearly saved their season. The NFC East is better this year (maybe not by much but couldn’t be worse). The defense did just enough to hold Tampa Bay to 19 points, but they will be asked to do much more than that this season. It’s not unfair to predict that this team that was expected to contend for the NFC East title could drop to a 5-6 win team.

SEAHAWKS 17, BRONCOS 16
DENVER: This had to be a disappointing loss, but not a cause for panic. In a division as good as the AFC West and a conference as good as the AFC, all games are meaningful, and the decision to try a 64 yard field goal at the end of the game was met with some… bemusement… by a couple Super Bowl winning Broncos. First time head coach Nathaniel Hackett made the much-criticized call to kick a field goal that was if not outside, then at the very edge of Brandon McManus’s range. Before that, though, two lost fumbles at the Seattle 1-yard line allowed the result to be in question at the end. The Broncos played well enough to win this game but ultimately lost it. The Broncos are still contenders to win the AFC West but losing this winnable game hurts.
SEATTLE: In a game that meant a lot to the team and to the 12’s in Seattle, the Seahawks were able to pull off the improbable upset. Geno Smith played adequately as a game-manager QB. He didn’t turn the ball over and was effective in his short and intermediate passes, while the defense bent, but didn’t break against the strong Broncos attack. That said, it still looks like wins will be hard to come by in Seattle this season. Not just in terms of talent, but they also have to play in the tough NFC West and also face the insanely difficult AFC West this season. A win over Russell Wilson may be all they need to be happy this season… and hopefully that’s true, as they still have the outlook of a 3-5 win team.