Coach: Doug Pederson (first season)
Offensive Coordinator: Press Taylor
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Caldwell
Offensive scheme: Doug Pederson is a disciple of Andy Reid and, like the Chiefs coach, runs a West Coast offense. This type of offense prioritizes short and intermediate passes and uses tight ends and running backs extensively in the passing game.
Defensive scheme: The Jaguars will likely run a defense similar to that run by Tampa Bay’s new head coach Todd Bowles, a hybrid-front scheme that at least appears as a nominal three-man base front with pressure coming from edge rushers either standing up or with hands in the dirt.
The Jaguars presently hold twelve draft picks, including the first overall selection. Sixth of their selections are in the final two rounds. Jaguars Draft Picks (accurate as of April 11th):
| Round | Overall Pick | Value (JJ) | Value (RH) | Notes |
| 1 | 1 | 3000 | 1000 | |
| 2 | 33 | 580 | 180 | |
| 3 | 65 | 265 | 78 | |
| 3 | 70 | 240 | 70 | From Carolina (CJ Henderson trade) |
| 4 | 106 | 82 | 33 | |
| 5 | 157 | 27 | 11 | From Minnesota (Yannick Ngakoue trade) |
| 6 | 180 | 17.8 | 7 | |
| 6 | 188 | 14.6 | 6 | From Seattle (Sidney Jones trade) |
| 6 | 197 | 11 | 5 | From Philadelphia (Gardner Minshew trade) |
| 6 | 198 | 10.6 | 5 | From Pittsburgh (Joe Schobert trade) |
| 7 | 222 | 1.7 | 3 | |
| 7 | 235 | 1 | 2 | From Baltimore (Josh Oliver trade) |
Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 4250.7
Rich Hill model: 1400
About Draft point models
The first model for assigning a point value to draft picks was designed by Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson during his time with the Dallas Cowboys. The valuations are designed to be used as a benchmark when determining the value of draft picks being traded between teams. The values are not hard coded and teams may have different valuations based on need or organizational philosophy. The Rich Hill model was derived, at least in part, due to a differing philosophy of pick value by Patriots coach Bill Belichick. As you may see in the chart above, the revised model puts an added emphasis on early picks and smooths out the value later on in the draft.
What Will the Jaguars do at the draft?
As the Jags hold the first overall pick, the rest of the draft is waiting on how they will start. The three likeliest scenarios appear to be:
1. Take an edge rusher, presumed to be Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson
2. Take an offensive tackle, either Alabama LT Evan Neal or OL Ickey Ekwonu
3. Trade out of the first overall pick for a small ransom.
Out of the top three scenarios, there appears to be a split over whether to take an edge rusher or a new left tackle, with some pundits believing that the franchise tag placed on current LT Cam Robinson is a signal from the front office that they are not looking to bolster their O-line with this pick. While the franchise tag did seem ill-advised with LT Walker Little waiting in the wings, there is a good possibility that one of these two could take the RT spot currently occupied by 2019 second round pick Jawaan Taylor. As far as edge rushers go, the Jaguars have a good one in the other Josh Allen, though 2020 first round pick K’Lavon Chaisson has failed to live up to expectations on the other side of the line. The Jaguars may be enticed to take Hutchinson, the runner up to Heisman Award winner Bryce Young, to use opposite Allen, much like the Bucs used Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul (or Joe Tryon-Shoyinka).
There is a fourth less likely scenario that wouldn’t shock me, though would be somewhat unprecedented:
4. Take Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton.
The Jaguars have a definite need at safety, with current FS Rayshawn Jenkins failing to impress last season, and Hamilton has the talent to potentially step into the starting lineup on Week 1. However, safeties don’t historical go at the top of the draft, and Hamilton’s measurables were not great at the NFL Combine and were even worse at the Notre Dame Pro Day, which could add some hesitation to making this call on draft day. The Jaguars, for better or worse (and usually worse), aren’t afraid to make an unconventional decision, but we’ll see if they go off the board at 1-1.
Roster Analysis
The Jaguars drastically overhauled their team in free agency, dishing out an estimated $260 million in new contracts (over $100 million in guarantees), in the hopes of infusing some much needed talent across many positions to improve on the barren roster from a year ago. They addressed the offensive line by signing former All-Pro Commanders RG Brandon Scherff, and also picked up wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, tight end (but really slot receiver) Evan Engram, CB Darious Williams, NT Foley Fatukasi, pass rusher Arden Key, and inside linebacker Foye Oluokun. On the other end, they lost offensive linemen AJ Cann, Andrew Norwell, and WR DJ Chark in free agency, cut LB Myles Jack, and C Brandon Linder announced his retirement.
While the contracts handed out to these incoming veterans were greater than expected, and in some cases excessive, there is no doubt that they have upgraded at a few positions, though they will need to use the draft for more upgrades. The Jaguars effectively still need starters at centre, free safety, and linebacker, should seek to upgrade at the X WR spot, left guard, pass rusher/OLB, and right tackle, and could use depth at defensive end, tight end, and running back.
Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Trevor Lawrence
Reserves: CJ Beathard, Jake Luton
Expected Draft Action: None. Jacksonville selected Lawrence with the first overall pick last year, and Beathard is a serviceable backup. With Luton back with the organization, taking a quarterback in this draft doesn’t appear to be necessary,
Running Back
Starters: James Robinson, Travis Etienne
Reserves: Ryquell Armstead, Mekhi Sargent, Nathan Cottrell
Expected Draft Action: Depth. Robinson is one of the league’s most underrated running backs, racking up 1837 yards on the ground and catching 80 passes over his first two seasons, while Etienne is an explosive back who will be a great fit in Pederson’s West Coast offense, especially in the passing game. The Jags do need some depth at the position, as Armstead and Sargent are special teams calibre players who would be hard-pressed to provide significant contributions if Robinson and/or Etienne go down to injury.
Potential Fits: Ty Chandler, UNC; Jaylen Warren, Oklahoma St.
Wide Receiver
Starters: Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones
Reserves: Laviska Shenault, Laquon Treadwell, Jamal Agnew, Terry Godwin, Tim Jones, Jeff Cotton
Expected Draft Action: Depth. After dishing out monster contracts to Kirk and Zay Jones, and also signing Evan Engram, who is a tight end in name only, the Jaguars may be forgiven for ignoring the deep crop of wide receivers in the draft, though it would be advisable to seek some depth, especially at the X (flanker) wide receiver spot. Kirk and Zay Jones have speed but both have been better fits in the slot.
Potential Fit: George Pickens, Georgia
Tight End
Starter: Evan Engram
Reserves: Dan Arnold, Chris Manhertz, Luke Farrell
Expected Draft Action: Balanced TE. Both Engram and Arnold are better receivers than blockers, while Manhertz and Farrell are specifically blocking TE. Problem is that none of these players are good at both. While it would be surprising to see Jacksonville address this need at the draft, they are limited at this position in how they deploy their tight ends. For instance, Engram should be used rarely, if at all, in run-heavy sets, while neither Manhertz nor Farrell will be utilitzed in the passing game.
Potential Fit: Jeremy Ruckert, Ohio State
Offensive Line
Starters: LT Cam Robinson, LG Ben Bartch, C Tyler Shatley, RG Brandon Scherff, RT Jawaan Taylor
Reserves: T Walker Little, Coy Cronk, Brandon Murphy, Badare Traore, G Will Richardson, Jared Hocker, C KC McDermott
Expected Draft Action: Interior Linemen, possible new LT at 1-1. Jacksonville lost all three starting interior linemen (Norwell, Cann, Linder) this offseason, and replaced only Cann, with Scherff. Bartch and Shatley are each replacement level players at this stage and the Jags should actively seek to find their replacements.
Potential Fits: C Luke Fortner, Kentucky; G/C Cole Strange, Chattanooga; G Luke Goedeke, Central Michigan; G Joshua Ezeudu, UNC
Defensive Line
Starters: NT Foley Fatukasi, 3-technique Malcom Brown, 5-technique Roy Robertson-Harris
Reserves: NT DaVon Hamilton; 3T Jay Tufele, Raequan Williams; 5T Dawuane Smoot, Jeremiah Ledbetter
Expected Draft Action: 3T. The Jaguars bolster the interior of their D-line by picking up Foley Fatukasi from the Jets, though they could still improve their 3-technique
Potential Fits: Eyioma Uwazurike, Iowa State; Kalia Davis, UCF
Edge Rushers/Outside Linebackers
Starters: Josh Allen, K’Lavon Chaisson
Reserves: Arden Key, Jordan Smith, Jamir Jones
Expected Draft Action: Starter, possible 1-1 pick. With Chaisson’s struggles in his first two pro seasons, the Jags could turn to the first overall pick to take an edge rusher to play opposite Allen. The Jags could be well suited to take a Big 10 pass rusher – Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson or Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie, dependent on whether they wish to go for the polished player that can be slotted in on Day 1, or if they wish to develop a high-end prospect.
Potential Fits: Hutchinson, Michigan (polished); Ebiketie (project)
Inside Linebackers
Starters: Foye Oluokon, Shaquille Quarterman
Reserves: Chapelle Russell, Tyrell Adams, Dylan Moses, Elijah Sullivan
Expected Draft Action: Depth. While it’s most likely the Jags will go with three linebackers on most downs and they have the bodies, the functional depth at ILB is pretty low. That said, I wouldn’t expect the Jaguars to take one of the top linebackers early in the draft.
Potential Fit: Troy Andersen, Montana State
Cornerbacks
Starters: Shaquill Griffin, Darious Williams, Tyson Campbell
Reserves: Tre Herndon, Rudy Ford, Chris Claybrooks, Xavier Crawford
Expected Draft Action: None. With the addition of Williams from the Rams, the Jags are now hoping to have filled their needs at corner. Griffin was a good, if unspectacular CB in his first season over from Seattle, while 2021 second round pick Tyson Campbell also showed some signs of his ability as the season progressed. In Herndon and Ford, the Jags also have experienced depth at the position.
Safeties
Starters: Rayshawn Jenkins, Andre Cisco
Reserves: SS Andrew Wingard, FS Daniel Thomas, FS Brandon Rusnak
Expected Draft Action: Starter. Andre Cisco, last year’s third round pick out of Syracuse, had an up-and-down start to the season in Jacksonville, but his workload increased towards the end of the season, following an injury to starter Rayshawn Jenkins late in the season. In the final three weeks, Cisco played relatively well, showcasing his potential for the coming season. That said, the other safety spot is completely up for grabs and with a good crop of safeties in the draft, the Jaguars will be well positioned to take one with one of their early round picks.
Potential Fits: Dax Hill, Michigan; Lewis Cine, Georgia; Jaquan Brisker, Penn State