Coach: Arthur Smith
Offensive Coordinator: Dave Ragone
Defensive Coordinator: Dean Pees
Offensive scheme: In 2021, Atlanta ran pass plays on 61% of their plays, ranking in the top 10 in pass frequency, even with the absence the team encountered at the wide receiver position during the season. Personnel groupings are hard to decipher in this offense, with TE Kyle Pitts and RB Cordarrelle Patterson playing as wide receivers frequently (Pitts was split out wide on about 73% of his snaps), however the Falcons play a fullback more than most teams, with FB Keith Smith included in 24% of the team’s snaps. The running backs are expected to also be capable receivers and blockers, while the team plays two tight ends frequently. Pitts was paired with another tight end on 40% of the team’s snaps. Up front the team uses a zone blocking scheme (blocking to a space vs blocking a particular defender), mixing outside zone (RB runs to the outside of the blocking tight end, linemen block to outside shoulder of defenders in their zone), inside zone (RB to outside hip of guard, linemen block to open a hole inside), and split zone (line blocks in one direction, left or right; a blocker tracks the opposite way to block the backside defender).
Defensive scheme: Dean Pees runs a base 3-4 defense that is in nickel most of the time. His teams tend to blitz a lot, generally putting six or seven players near the line and choosing which five to send. The defense is characterized by very athletic, if smaller players, including on the defensive line. He tends to play split safeties at the back of the defense, but the safeties should also be willing to blitz, as they like to disguise the defense.
The Falcons, as of April 21st, own nine picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, including the eighth overall pick. The Julio Jones trade last year and Matt Ryan trade this offseason add closure to the previous era, and give the Falcons two extra picks in Day 2 of the draft. They could be the chips needed to be players in the QB trade market.
Falcons Draft Picks:
| Round | Overall Pick | Value (JJ) | Value (RH) | Notes |
| 1 | 8 | 1400 | 406 | |
| 2 | 43 | 470 | 138 | |
| 2 | 58 | 320 | 93 | From Tennessee (Julio Jones trade) |
| 3 | 74 | 220 | 64 | |
| 3 | 82 | 180 | 54 | From Indianapolis (Matt Ryan trade) |
| 4 | 114 | 66 | 29 | |
| 5 | 151 | 29.4 | 12 | |
| 6 | 190 | 13.8 | 6 | Compensatory Pick |
| 7 | 213 | 4.6 | 4 | From Atlanta (Lee Smith trade) |
Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 2703.8
Rich Hill model: 806
About Draft point models
The first model for assigning a point value to draft picks was designed by Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson during his time with the Dallas Cowboys. The valuations are designed to be used as a benchmark when determining the value of draft picks being traded between teams. The values are not hard coded and teams may have different valuations based on need or organizational philosophy. The Rich Hill model was derived, at least in part, due to a differing philosophy of pick value by Patriots coach Bill Belichick. As you may see in the chart above, the revised model puts an added emphasis on early picks and smooths out the value later on in the draft.
What will the Falcons do at the draft?
Do they take a QB at 8? If they want Matt Corral, they probably don’t have any teams ahead of them that will mess things up for them. If they want Malik Willis? Well, Carolina has been strongly linked to him, while Detroit has been know to have some level of interest. Atlanta might need to trade up. Is he worth not just an early pick, but dealing trade capital to get there? Unlike other positions, teams don’t generally have a handful of prospects with starting grades, they generally like a guy and move to get him if they need to. Otherwise, the Falcons need pass rushers and wide receivers badly. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them commit five or more of their picks to these two positions.
Roster Analysis
The Falcons are somewhat unique in that their best active wide receivers are a running back and tight end. Kyle Pitts is only nominally a TE, as he plays about 27% of his snaps inline (right next to the tackle), about 40% of this snaps in the slot and the rest out wide. Cordarrelle Patterson was once a wide receiver, but now a running back who also flanks out wide on a semi-regular basis. Patterson is their best possession receiver while Pitts is their best X and slot receiver. They still desperately need a wide receiver, with the (at least) season-long suspension to star WR Calvin Ridley and losing Russell Gage in free agency, but the issue isn’t as glaring as it seems. TE Anthony Firkser was brought in from Tennessee and will almost certainly handle most of the inline TE duties. Buried in all this is the departure of longtime QB Matt Ryan, who was traded to the Colts in the fallout of the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. The Falcons also lost LB Foye Oluokun, WR Russell Gage, TE Hayden Hurst, EDGE Dante Fowler, P Thomas Morstead, and RT Matt Gono. The Falcons signed QB Marcus Mariota, TE Anthony Firkser, EDGE Lorenzo Carter, and raided the Bears for RT Germain Ifedi, RB Damien Williams, RT Elijah Wilkinson, WR Damiere Byrd, and S Teez Tabor.
Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Marcus Mariota
Reserves: Feleipe Franks
Expected Draft Action: Starter. Following the departure of Matty Ice, the Falcons only have two quarterbacks on their roster at the moment, signaling that another QB will be there, and likely before too long. Mariota is a decent QB, but he’s on a short-term deal, and is unlikely to be the long-term answer. With the draft looming, the question is does Atlanta get in early on a quarterback, find a backup later, or explore the Baker Mayfield market?
Potential fits: Matt Corral, Ole Miss; Malik Willis, Liberty; Kenny Pickett, Pitt; Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati; Sam Howell, UNC; Carson Strong, Nevada; Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky
Running Back
Starter: Cordarrelle Patterson
Reserves: Mike Davis, Damien Williams, Qadree Ollison, Caleb Huntley
Expected Draft Action: None. The Falcons added Damien Williams in free agency and now have a troika of running backs catch out of the backfield (or in Patterson’s case, from anywhere), but don’t get a ton of YPC in the run game. I don’t believe they’ll do much in the draft here, but if they do, it’ll be late, and they’ll get someone who’s as good on passing downs as on running downs.
Wide Receiver
Starters: Olamide Zaccheaus, Auden Tate, (realistically Kyle Pitts)
Reserves: Damiere Byrd, Frank Darby, KhaDarel Hodge, Austin Trammell, Chad Hansen, Cordarrelle Patterson
Expected Draft Action: Starter. Tate, Byrd, and Hodge were all picked up in free agency by the Falcons, but these receivers are all depth players. There is still a lack of starter-level talent, even when factoring in Pitts and Patterson. Calvin Ridley was suspended, but the Falcons were actively shopping him before being notified that the league was going to take action on him, so the Falcons should be addressing his replacement either way. Luckily for them, the draft lines up nicely with this positional need. I could say all receivers are a fit (and they would be, given Pitts’ versatility), but here are the fits:
Potential fit: X Garrett Wilson, Ohio State; Jameson Williams, Alabama; Chris Olave, Ohio State; Christian Watson, NDSU; Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama; George Pickens, Georgia; Danny Gray, SMU; Kevin Austin, Notre Dame; Tyquan Thornton, Baylor
Z: Treylon Burks, Arkansas; Drake London, USC; Makai Polk, Mississippi State; Alec Pierce, Cincinnati; Erik Ezukanma
Slot: Jahan Dotson, Penn State; Skyy Moore, Western Michigan; John Metchie, Alabama; Khalil Shakir, Boise State; Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky; Calvin Austin, Memphis; Josh Johnson, Tulsa
Tight End
Starters: Kyle Pitts, Anthony Firkser
Reserves: Parker Hesse, Daniel Helm, Brayden Lenius, John Rayne, Ryan becker
Expected Draft Action: None. They have 1.5 starting calibre tight ends, and five reserves on the roster. This will likely be how the TE room looks in Atlanta heading into training camp.
Offensive Line
Starters: LT Jake Matthews, LG Jalen Mayfield, C Matt Hennessy, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Kaleb McGary
Reserves: T Germain Ifedi, Elijah Wilkinson, Willie Beavers, Rick Leonard; G Rashaad Coward, Ryan Neuzil, Colby Gossett; C Drew Dalman
Expected Draft Action: None. Mayfield had a rough rookie season at LG in 2021, allowing 11 sacks from the interior and committing 9 penalties, both numbers that would be up there with the league’s worst from a tackle, let alone a guard. However, the Falcons have stressed patience as Mayfield is new to the position (he was a RT at Michigan), and was relatively inexperienced entering the pros (he started 15 total games for the Wolverines). The rest of the line is a solid veteran group which hopefully should help Mayfield’s progression.
Defensive Line
Starters: DE Ta’Quon Graham, 3T Marlon Davidson, NT Grady Jarrett
Reserves: DE John Cominsky, 3T Vincent Taylor, Nick Thurman, NT Anthony Rush
Expected Draft Action: Starter at DE or 3T. The Falcons defense is designed to be athletic, though that athleticism comes with a smaller defensive unit. Graham and Davidson are both listed as starters but played only about 30% of the snaps apiece. We’ll likely see a 3-4 DE that can rush the QB and a 3T that might be seen as a bit small for a 3-4 defense or might be a projectionable 3-4 end that they can move inside. Travon Walker may not make it to 8, but would be a perfect fit for this defense on the end.
Potential Fits: DE Travon Walker, Georgia; George Karlaftis, Purdue; Joshua Paschal, Kentucky;
DT: Zach Carter, Florida; Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina; Logan Hall, Houston
Linebackers
Starters: EDGE Lorenzo Carter, WLB Deion Jones, MLB Rashaan Evans, SLB Adetokunbo Ogundeji
Reserves: EDGE Quinton Bell, WLB Dorian Etheridge, MLB Mykal Walker, Rashad Smith, SLB James Vaughters, Jordan Brailford
Expected Draft Action: Pass rusher (or two). The Atlanta Falcons had a meagre pass rush last season, getting to the quarterback a league-low 18 times, the only other team with fewer than 30 sacks was the Eagles (29). Dante Fowler led the team in sacks last season with 4, and left for the Cowboys in free agency. Lorenzo Carter joined from the Giants, but they’ll need much more than one pass rusher to find any success. The Falcons added Rashaan Evans from the Titans to replace the departed Foye Oluokun and to play alongside Deion Jones, so the inside linebackers look to be set. A presence on the line and another rusher to play opposite Carter seems likely, but depth is also needed.
Potential fit: EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon; David Ojabo, Michigan (will miss 2022); Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State; Nik Bonitto, Oklahoma; DeAngelo Malone, Western Kentucky; Christopher Allen, Alabama; Drake Jackson, USC
Cornerbacks
Starters: AJ Terrell, Casey Hayward, Isaiah Oliver
Reserves: Darren Hall, Mike Ford, Richie Grant, Cornell Armstrong, Kendall Sheffield, Avery Williams, Dee Alford, Lafayette Pitts, Corey Ballentine
Expected Draft Action: None. While Casey Hayward will be 33 years old on the opening night of the NFL season, he is still playing at a high level and should be a strong addition to what was already a strong CB unit, playing opposite rising star AJ Terrell. Isaiah Oliver, the nickel/slot corner is another strong player, who they hope can rebound from an injury-plagued 2021.
Safeties
Starters: FS Erik Harris, SS Dean Marlowe
Reserves: FS Luther Kirk, SS Jaylinn Hawkins, Teez Tabor
Expected Draft Action: None. With the departure of Duron Harmon, the starting safety spot alongside incumbent Erik Harris will be competed for by three players, reserve safety Jaylinn Hawkins and two new players, Dean Marlowe from Detroit, and Teez Tabor from Chicago. It is seemingly unlikely that additional players will be brought in to compete for the role.