NFL DRAFT PREVIEW: NEW YORK JETS

Coach: Robert Saleh (second season, 4-13 in 2021)
Offensive Coordinator: Mike LaFleur
Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich

Offensive scheme: West Coast offense. As a disciple of the Shanahans, LaFleur runs a variation of the West Coast offense which relies on short and intermediate passing routes and using the running backs and tight ends in the passing game.

Defensive scheme: The Jets run Saleh’s version of the Seattle Cover-3 defense, which was popularized by the Seahawks, Pete Carroll, and the Legion of Boom, then was adopted throughout the league, including in San Francisco when Saleh was their defensive coordinator. The Seattle defense features a four-man front (though pass rushers may stand up on obvious passing downs), and a three-man deep zone, which usually features the outside corners and free safety each taking a 1/3 of the field deep, while the linebackers, strong safety, and either nickel corner or safety patrol the short and intermediate parts of the field. As such, the safeties tend to be strongly segmented between strong and free (think Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas from the Legion of Boom), and the corners and linebackers should be strong tacklers and proficient in zone concepts.

The Jets, as of April 14th, own nine total picks in the 2022 draft, with two in the top 10, four in the top 38, and all of them within the first five rounds. The Adams and Darnold trades didn’t pay off the way the Seahawks and Panthers (respectively) would’ve liked, putting the Jets in position to move their rebuild project along at speed.
Jets Draft Picks:

RoundOverall PickValue (JJ)Value (RH)Notes
141800491
1101300369From Seattle (Jamal Adams trade)
235550170
238520157From Carolina (Sam Darnold trade)
36924571
41117231From Carolina (Sam Darnold trade)
41176027From Minnesota (Chris Herndon trade)
514631.414
516324.69From Pittsburgh (Avery Williamson trade)

Total Draft Points:
Jimmy Johnson model: 4603
Rich Hill model: 1339

About Draft point models
The first model for assigning a point value to draft picks was designed by Hall of Fame coach Jimmy Johnson during his time with the Dallas Cowboys. The valuations are designed to be used as a benchmark when determining the value of draft picks being traded between teams. The values are not hard coded and teams may have different valuations based on need or organizational philosophy. The Rich Hill model was derived, at least in part, due to a differing philosophy of pick value by Patriots coach Bill Belichick. As you may see in the chart above, the revised model puts an added emphasis on early picks and smooths out the value later on in the draft.

What will the Jets do at the draft?
The Jets have the fourth and tenth overall picks, and nine total picks throughout the draft, all within the first five rounds. The Jets are starting to build a foundation, and have augmented the foundation with some decent free agent signings, but the question is, do they have enough to make the leap into serious contention? Not yet, but there should be optimism in the green part of New York for the first time in a long time.

There are still some holes in the roster: right tackle, any receiver type other than slot, secondary (despite decent under-the-radar signings DJ Reed and Jordan Whitehead) needs depth, the linebacker corps are in need of a talent infusion, and the line could use some depth, even with Carl Lawson coming back from injury. There are some decent options in the first round that jump out the page, but also others that will be there in the middle rounds. Which direction do the Jets go?

Roster Analysis
The Jets made a splash in free agency this year – not a Jaguars-level splash, but enough of one – and made moves to shore up some key weaknesses. They brought in RG Laken Tomlinson from the Niners, tight ends CJ Uzomah (from Cincinnati) and Tyler Conklin (from Minnesota), safety Jordan Whitehead from Tampa Bay, and underrated CB DJ Reed from Seattle. On the other end, they lost safety Marcus Maye to the Saints, slot receiver Jamison Crowder to the Bills (what are they going to do in the slot now with only 6 slot receivers in the roster?), right tackle Morgan Moses went to Baltimore, and nose tackle Foley Fatukasi went to the Jaguars.

Depth Charts
Quarterback
Starter: Zach Wilson
Reserves: Joe Flacco, Mike White
Expected Draft Action: None. Zach Wilson is the future of the New York Jets, Joe Flacco is the old head/emeritus/extra coach at the end of his career, and Mike White is the capable backup in case Wilson suffers a long-term injury. At the moment, the QB room is settled.

Running Back
Starter: Michael Carter, Tevin Coleman
Reserves: Ty Johnson, La’Mical Perine, Austin Walter
Expected Draft Action: Depth or none. Carter and Coleman were emerging as the main 1-2 options in the Jets backfield as the season came to a close and, barring any additions, should remain in those positions as the season approaches. As with the Shanahans, LaFleur and the Jets are unlikely to stop looking for options in the run game and will potentially seek to unearth a diamond in the rough either late in the draft (which would have to be round five at this point) or in the UDFA market.
Potential fit: Isiah Pacheco, Rutgers; Trestan Ebner, Baylor; Ty Chandler, UNC; CJ Verdell, Oregon

Wide Receiver
Starters: X WR Corey Davis, Z WR Denzel Mims, Y WR Elijah Moore
Reserves: X Tarik Black; Z DJ Montgomery; Y Braxton Berrios, Jeff Smith, Lawrence Cager, Rodney Adams
Expected Draft Action: Starter, Depth. What the Jets don’t need is another slot receiver. They’re all set in the slot, with second year receiver Elijah Moore and Braxton Berrios, along with a plethora of backup/special teams guys. The Jets do need some size and speed on the perimeter and the draft will provide plenty of opportunities for upgrades. USC WR Drake London fits the possession receiver need almost perfectly – it’s just a question as to whether pick 10 is too soon to take him.
Potential Fit: Z Treylon Burks, Arkansas; London; George Pickens, Georgia; Alec Pierce, Cincinnati; Makai Polk, Mississippi State; Erik Ezukanma, Texas Tech; Romeo Doubs, Nevada; Tre Turner, Virginia Tech
Y: Jameson Williams, Alabama (injury risk); Christian Watson, NDSU; Kevin Austin, Notre Dame; Danny Gray, SMU

Tight End
Starter: CJ Uzomah, Tyler Conklin
Reserves: Trevon Wesco, Kenny Yeboah, Brandon Dillon
Expected Draft Action: None. The Jets have long sought someone (anyone!) that could play TE for them and went out and got two players to fill the role: CJ Uzomah from Cincinnati and Tyler Conklin from Minnesota, dishing out $25 million in guarantees on three-year deals to each of the veterans. Uzomah and Conklin are both established receivers who are also willing run and pass blockers. The cupboard is bare behind them, but with teams usually carrying only three TEs, and splashing on the position in free agency, it would be very surprising to see them seek more help at the position via the draft.

Offensive Line
Starters: LT Mekhi Becton, LG Alijah Vera-Tucker, C Connor McGovern, RG Laken Tomlinson, RT George Fant
Reserves: T Conor McDermott, Greg Senat, Chuma Edoga, Parker Ferguson; G Greg Van Roten, Dru Samia, Isaiah Williams; C Dan Feeney, Ross Pierschbacher
Expected Draft Action: Tackle depth. After giving a 3-year, $40 million contract to RG Laken Tomlinson, the Jets are more or less set on the interior of the offensive line, with Vera-Tucker, McGovern, and Tomlinson manning the G and C spots. The bizarre circumstances surrounding the knee injury (and subsequent setbacks) of LT Mekhi Becton have pundits wondering whether the Jets will go with a new left tackle with one of their top 10 picks. This appears to be unlikely, as the Jets appear to be happy with Fant on the left side (as he played there last season, to some credit). However, the Jets may opt to take a tackle in the draft – but either a RT or swing tackle.
Potential Fits: RT/G Rasheed Walker, Michigan State; G/RT Spencer Burford, UTSA; RT/G Vederian Lowe, Illinois

Defensive Line
Starters: EDGE Carl Lawson, DE John Franklin-Myers, 3T Quinnen Williams, NT Sheldon Rankins
Reserves: EDGE Jacob Martin, Bradlee Anae; DE Bryce Huff, Jabari Zuniga, Tim Ward; 3T Nathan Shepherd, Solomon Thomas; NT Tanzel Smart, Jonathan Marshall
Expected Draft Action: Depth, potential starter at NT. The Jets lost some strength in their spine when Foley Fatukasi signed with the Jaguars, but still have one of the better defensive tackles in Quinnen Williams, and a very underrated strong side DE in John Franklin-Myers. EDGE rusher Carl Lawson should also return from injury to further bolster this unit. Sheldon Rankins is on the downhill side of his career progression and may see benefit in optimizing his playing time, while the rotation overall could also stand to be strengthened, especially at pass rusher.
Potential Fits: Defensive End: Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, Jermaine Johnson, Florida State (pass rusher and 4-3 run stopping DE); Travon Walker, Georgia (run stuffing end with edge rush ceiling); Dominique Robinson (high ceiling 4-3 pass rush DE); George Karlaftis, Purdue (43 EDGE)
Defensive Tackle: Eyoima Uwazurike, Iowa State (5T/3T/DT); Neil Farrell, LSU (NT); DJ Davidson, Arizona State (NT); Travis Jones, UCONN (NT);

Linebackers
Starters: MLB CJ Mosley, WLB Quincy Williams
Reserves: MLB Del’Shawn Phillips, Hamsah Nasirilideen; WLB Jamien Sherwood, Hamilcar Rashed
Expected Draft Action: Starter(s). At 10, the Jets will have to make a decision: go with possibly the draft’s best wide receiver, or go with its best linebacker. They could take Garrett Wilson or Drake London OR they can take Devin Lloyd or Nakobe Dean. All four of these players fills a significant need and will make the Jets a better team perhaps as early as Week 1.
Potential Fits: MLB Lloyd, Utah; Dean, Georgia; Channing Tindall, Georgia; Aaron Hansford, Texas A&M (project)
WLB Christian Harris, Alabama; Zakoby McClain, Auburn; Brian Asamoah, Oklahoma (project); JoJo Domann, Nebraska;

Cornerbacks
Starters: DJ Reed, Bryce Hall, Michael Carter II
Reserves: Brandin Echols, Jason Pinnock, Javelin Guidry, Isaiah Dunn, Rachad Wildgoose, Justin Hardee
Expected Draft Action: Starter, Depth. This is a unit that is hard to decipher. The Jets CB unit is filled with unheralded players learning on the fly. Bryce Hall looked like a fish out of water in his rookie season, but improved in Year 2. Michael Carter had an up-and-down rookie season. Some of the others look solidified as reserves. DJ Reed, the free agent acquisition from Seattle, fits the defense and played very well for the Seahawks in 2022. Do they try to find their Richard Sherman in this draft? Seattle gave Sherman some leeway but this defense is largely about the outside corners keeping to their side of the field and extending coverage deep as needed. While the corners may start in press they’ll need to be able to keep the discipline in zone. This probably means Sauce Gardner and Stingley are not fits at 4 or 10, but there are some high ceiling corners that would thrive in this defense.
Potential Fit: Andrew Booth, Clemson; Kyler Gordon, Washington; Marcus Jones, Houston; Cam Taylor-Britt, Nebraska; Damarri Mathis, Pitt; Vincent Gray, Michigan; Montaric Brown, Arkansas; Akayleb Evans, Mizzou.

Safeties
Starters: FS Ashtyn Davis, SS Jordan Whitehead
Reserves: FS Elijah Riley, Kai Nacua, Jovante Moffatt; SS Lamarcus Joyner, Will Parks, Zane Lewis
Expected Draft Action: Depth. Marcus Maye’s departure naturally hurts the safeties but the Jets seem to believe that Davis can fit at least some of the void on the free side. Maye was not really a fit on the strong side, though he was effective there, he’s best as a free safety. With the signing of Jordan Whitehead from Tampa, Lamarcus Joyner’s fit should be interesting. He has experience as a slot corner (which he might do here too), and he could also be a weakside linebacker on passing downs. In a perfect world, all three of Davis, Whitehead, and Joyner see the field together a bunch, but the unit beyond them thins out quickly. Depth options at safety seem like the best bet in this draft (not to mention that some strong safeties in college may be WLBs in this defense).
Potential Fits: Dax Hill (FS/NCB); Percy Butler, Louisiana (FS); Delarrin Turner-Yell, Oklahoma (both); Verone McKinley (FS/NCB); Dane Belton (SS)

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