I will be updating this post throughout the day with the changes to the playoff picture – the options that are no longer possible will be struck through.
This page was updated after the Saturday games – Bengals and Patriots no longer have a shot at the #1 overall seed in the AFC.
This page was further updated after the early Sunday games. The Colts are out after a shocking loss to the Jaguars and the Ravens are out following their OT loss to the Steelers. After having a 5% chance of making the playoffs before the day started, the Steelers are now up to a 99% chance – the only way they miss is if the Chargers-Raiders game finishes in a tie. Meanwhile, the Titans locked up the 1 seed and the Chiefs will be second in the AFC.
After a fittingly wild Sunday night game between the Chargers and Raiders, the season is now over. Congratulations to the fourteen teams that made the playoffs, including the Raiders, following their OT win… and the Steelers, who clinched a playoff spot after the Chargers and Raiders failed to tie!
We are now 16 games away from the end of the NFL season, and in the past week, much has been done to put the playoff picture into focus. The Packers have clinched homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, while the top of the AFC is still wide open. In the final playoff spots, we have a true win-and-you’re-in game between the Chargers and Raiders next Sunday night, while the Colts, Niners, Saints, and even the Steelers and Ravens still have playoff aspirations. The information below spells out playoff and seeding possibilities, as well as the times for each game of relevance next weekend.
There are two divisions yet to be decided, the AFC East and the NFC West. Buffalo clinches a division win if they can beat the Jets at home or if the Pats lose in Miami. The Rams can win the NFC West with a win over the Niners, or an Arizona home loss to Seattle. The Rams have lost their last five games against the Niners, and the Niners need the win to claim a wild card spot, so a win is far from a sure thing.
The statuses of the remaining teams – Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Baltimore Ravens – are all yet to be fully decided, but can be summarized thusly:
Chargers at Raiders is a play-in game
Colts are in if they beat Jacksonville
Niners are in if they beat the Rams.
Saints need to beat the Falcons and have the Niners lose to the Rams
Steelers need a win and a Colts loss (and for the Chargers and Raiders not to tie)
Ravens need a miracle
Play-in scenarios supported by the ESPN 2021 NFL Playoff Machine
Playoff and division winning chances provided by FiveThirtyEight, as of January 2nd at 11:28 pm ET
AFC
Five teams are still mathematically vying for two playoff spots in the AFC, though if the Steelers lose to the Browns on MNF, the Steelers AND the Ravens both kiss their extremely faint wild card hopes goodbye. The Bills win the AFC East with a victory over the Jets, or a Patriots loss to the Dolphins. The Titans, Chiefs, Bengals and Patriots all have a shot at the 1 seed
1. TENNESSEE TITANS (12-5) – LOCKED IN
Remaining game: at Houston, Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
Clinched AFC South division title
Clinched top seed in AFC
The Titans are locked in with the top seed in the AFC after beating the Texans.
2. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (12-5) – LOCKED IN
Clinched AFC West division title
The Chiefs will play the Steelers on Sunday night after their victory over the Broncos.
3. BUFFALO BILLS (11-6) – LOCKED IN
Clinched a playoff berth
Clinched AFC East
The Bills finished in third place and will host the Patriots on Saturday night.
4. CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-7) – LOCKED IN
Clinched AFC North division title
The Bengals will face the Patriots or the Raiders on Wild Card Weekend (Pats if Chargers win or tie, Raiders if Raiders win)
5. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (10-7)
Clinched a playoff berth
The Raiders beat the Chargers and finished fifth in the AFC. They will face go to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals on Saturday afternoon.
5. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-7)
Clinched a playoff berth
The Patriots locked up the six seed and will travel to Buffalo on Wild Card weekend.
7. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-7-1)
Clinched a playoff berth
The Steelers finish in seventh place after the Raiders defeated the Chargers. They will take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead on Sunday night.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (9-8) – OUT
Remaining game: at Las Vegas, Sunday, 8:20 pm ET
Playoff chances: 51%
With the loss to the Raiders, the Chargers are out of the playoffs.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-8) – OUT
The Colts are OUT after a shocking loss to Jacksonville.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-9) – the Ravens are OUT of postseason contention
The Ravens lost to the Steelers and their playoff hopes have extinguished.
NFC
The NFC’s playoff race involves just two teams, the 9-7 Niners and the 8-8 Saints. If the Niners can’t beat the Rams, the Saints make the playoffs if they beat the Falcons. Also, with the Packers win on Sunday night, they’ve also tied up the 1 seed. The West is the only division yet to be decided – the Rams clinch with a win over the Niners or a loss by Arizona.
1. GREEN BAY PACKERS (13-4)
Clinched NFC North division title
Clinched homefield advantage throughout the playoffs
The Packers lost to the Lions in a game that meant nothing to them.
2. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (13-4)
Clinched NFC South division title
With their win today, the Bucs have locked into the two seed and will play the Eagles on Wild Card Weekend
3. DALLAS COWBOYS (12-5)
Clinched NFC East division title
With the Rams’ loss, the Cowboys step into the three seed and will host San Francisco on Wild Card Weekend.
4. LOS ANGELES RAMS (12-4)
Remaining game: vs San Francisco, Sunday, 4:25 pm ET
Clinched playoff berth
Clinched NFC West
With the Cardinals loss to Seattle, the Rams backed into the division title. With their loss to San Francisco, the Rams dropped to fourth and will take on their division rivals Arizona in the first ever playoff game played on a Monday night.
5. ARIZONA CARDINALS (11-5)
Remaining game: vs Seattle
Clinched playoff berth
The Cardinals will travel to LA to take on the Rams in the wildcard round on Monday night.
6. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (10-7)
The Niners took the six seed with their overtime win over the Rams. They will face the Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday afternoon (technically Arlington, but you get the point)
7. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-8)
Clinched playoff berth
The Eagles travel to Tampa to take on the defending Super Bowl champs on Sunday afternoon.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-8) – OUT
Despite finishing the season on a winning note, the Saints missed the playoffs after the Niners beat the Rams to secure the last playoff spot