Month: December 2021

With just two weeks to go, three-quarters of the teams in the NFL have a chance to make the playoffs. For six of those teams (five in the NFC), the chances are 100%. For some of the teams with work left to do, it ranges from easy (Tennessee) to extremely difficult (Denver, Atlanta). I’ll rank the 18 teams still vying for the post-season in order from easiest to most difficult here in Bracketology format (meaning locks, should be ins, work left to do, on the bubble, and longshots. Scenarios are done with the help of ESPN’s Playoff Machine
Playoff Chance percentages provided by FiveThirtyEight as of December 31st at 11:37 am. Note: I do not order the teams by the 538.com metrics, I ranked the teams based on my assumption of the likelihood of them making the playoffs.

These teams have been excluded because they’ve either clinched or been eliminated.
IN: Kansas City, Green Bay, Dallas, LA Rams, Tampa Bay, Arizona
OUT: Carolina, Chicago, Seattle, NY Giants, NY Jets, Houston, Detroit, Jacksonville

Now onto the list, starting with the one true lock –

LOCKS: Tennessee
The Titans are the only team that isn’t quite in yet, but have every reason to expect to be still in when the regular season ends. By virtue of their head-to-head win over the Chiefs, the Titans still have a shot at the top seed in the AFC if the Chiefs slip in their final two games and the Titans take care of business.

1. TENNESSEE TITANS (10-5)
Remaining games: vs Miami, at Houston
Playoff chances: 97%
The Tennessee Titans have the easiest path to the post-season, either through winning the AFC South or sneaking in even if nearly all goes wrong. There is one specific scenario in which they miss the playoffs, which involves them getting swept by Houston:
1. Lose to the Dolphins and Texans
2. Indianapolis wins out (Raiders, Jaguars)
3. Buffalo wins one remaining game (Falcons, Jets)
4. New England beats the Jaguars and loses to the Dolphins
Realistically, the Bills imploding by losing out to the sub-.500 Falcons and terrible (if feisty) Jets at home is hard to imagine. To add to that, they need Jacksonville to beat the Patriots AND Colts in back-to-back, including this weekend in Foxboro.

SHOULD BE IN: Buffalo, Indianapolis, New England
These teams are in the “should be in” category and not the “work left to do” category as they each really need to win only once against substandard opposition, or in Buffalo’s case, two games.

2. BUFFALO BILLS (9-6)
Remaining games: vs Atlanta, vs NY Jets
Playoff chances: 99%
As always in the AFC East, the fortunes of a team changes when they face the Patriots. Before the first game in Buffalo, vanquishing the Patriots would’ve meant the Bills had an inside track on the division title and a high seed (especially with a win over the Chiefs in their back pocket). When they lost to New England, the sky started to fall – the Pats took the division lead and the Bills were on the very ledge of the playoff race – a loss over the Patriots in New England would do even more damage to their playoff hopes, putting them on the outside looking in, and needing a lot of help. When the Bills won 33-21 in Foxboro, their fortunes changed once again. Now at 9-6 with a divisional tiebreaker over New England, the Bills are two steps away from taking the AFC East again and looking like a tough out in the playoffs. If they avoid a disaster in Week 18, they’ll win the East.
The Bills win the division if:
1. Buffalo wins out
2. Buffalo loses to the Falcons but beats the Jets and:
a. New England does not win out (Jaguars, Dolphins)
On the other hand, there is still a doomsday scenario. The Bills miss the playoffs if:
1. Buffalo loses out and:
a. New England wins at least one game
b. Three teams in wild card positions win at least 10 games.
2. Buffalo loses to the Jets and:
a. New England beat the Jaguars
b. Miami wins out (Titans, Patriots)
c. Indianapolis beats the Jaguars
d. Las Vegas wins out (Colts, Chargers) OR Chargers win out (Broncos, Raiders)
e. Baltimore wins out (Rams, Steelers)

3. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-6)
Remaining games: vs Las Vegas, at Jacksonville
Playoff chances: 98%
The Colts couldn’t have started 2021 any worse, they lost to the Seahawks, Rams, and Titans to start off the season and started the year 1-4. Generally, teams that start this poorly do not make the playoffs. However, after a loss to the Titans brought the Colts to 3-5 on the season, they’ve gone 6-1, picked up wins over the Bills, Patriots, and Cardinals and now look like a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs with an MVP candidate (RB Jonathan Taylor) and a strong offensive line (now that road-grading LG Quenton Nelson is back to full health), and an excellent defense. Along with the Patriots, the Colts own the best conference record in the AFC, and with one win, their chances of getting in are almost 100%.
The Colts can make the playoffs if:
1. Indianapolis wins out (Raiders, Jaguars)
2. Indianapolis beats the Raiders
3. Indianapolis beats the Jaguars and one of the following occurs:
a. Miami does not win out (Titans, Patriots)
b. Las Vegas loses to the Chargers
c. New England does not win out (Jaguars, Dolphins)

4. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-6)
Remaining games: vs Jacksonville, at Miami
Playoff chances: 94%
After winning seven games in a row, some in dominating fashion, pundits were getting themselves ready for the Patriots to return to the Super Bowl (and usually had them facing Tom Brady’s Buccaneers), as if such a thing is a sure thing when December rolls around (and in the past it has been). However, since taking the AFC East division lead at 9-4, the Pats have lost to two playoff-ready teams (Indy and Buffalo) and now find themselves firmly in the wild card hunt. The Pats have two very significant advantages on their side: a 7-3 conference record which can only be matched by the Colts and Raiders, and a Week 17 game against the Jaguars at home. One thing working against them? They get the Dolphins in Miami in Week 18. The Dolphins have a way of making life difficult on the Pats, especially in Miami, where New England is 9-12 during Bill Belichick’s tenure.
The Patriots can make the playoffs if:
1. New England wins out (Jaguars, Dolphins)
2. New England defeats the Dolphins in Week 18
3. New England beats the Jaguars, loses to the Dolphins and two of the following scenarios occur:
a. Miami loses to the Titans
b. Las Vegas does not win out
c. Indianapolis does not win out

WORK LEFT TO DO: Cincinnati, San Francisco, Philadelphia
These teams all have decent odds to make the playoffs, and would a collapse by themselves and some wins by others to lose their spot.

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS (9-6)
Remaining games: vs Kansas City, at Cleveland
Playoff chances: 82%
Despite the odds being in their favour, the playoffs are far from a sure thing for Cincinnati. The Chiefs come in to the Queen City this weekend and then the Bengals travel to Cleveland to face a Browns team that absolutely pasted them in Week 8 in a potential win-and-you’re-in game. A win in either of those games guarantees the division for the Bengals, which would put a bow on the franchise’s quick and somewhat improbable turnaround.
Here are the division-clinching scenarios for Cincinnati:
1. Win one of the remaining games (Chiefs, Browns)
2. Have both scenarios take place:
a. Baltimore loses to the Rams and beats the Steelers
b. Cleveland loses to the Steelers in Week 17
The Bengals could lose both games and lose the division and still make the playoffs in a few different scenarios where we don’t have three wild card teams with 10 wins or more, though losing head-to-head at home to the Chargers does not help their case in that math.

6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-7)
Remaining games: at Washington, vs Dallas
Playoff chances: 71%
Since the Eagles’ renewed focus on their run game, they have won five of their last six to launch themselves into the playoff race. Now, the Eagles control their destiny – though with a challenging schedule – and have a number of tiebreakers over other NFC playoff contenders. They lost their head-to-head with the Niners but beat the Falcons and Saints.
The Eagles can make the playoffs the following ways:
1. Win both remaining games (WFT, Cowboys)
2. Win one of their remaining games and at least one of the following:
a. San Francisco wins at most one game (Texans, Rams)
b. Minnesota does not win out (Packers, Bears)
3. There is also a scenario where they make the playoffs with eight wins, though this requires some fancy footwork:
a. Minnesota must lose both remaining games
b. Atlanta must lose to the Bills and beat the Saints
c. Washington must lose to the Giants
The biggest question facing the Eagles (outside of what needs to be done) will be whether the Cowboys go full strength in their Week 18 game. If the Cowboys do not have a shot at the first round bye, will they be concerned with jockeying for position? Regardless of their status, will they go all-out to beat their hated division rivals?

7. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (8-7)
Remaining games: vs Houston, at LA Rams
Playoff chances: 74%
The Niners chances of making the playoffs are significantly buoyed by playing the Texans in Week 17. With that win, the Niners would be in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot, regardless of their result against the Rams. There is one specific, yet plausible scenario to watch out for if they do split the final two games.
The Niners can make the playoffs in the following ways:
1. Win both remaining games (Texans, Rams)
2. Win one of their remaining games and one of the following:
a. New Orleans does not win out (Panthers, Falcons)
b. Philadelphia wins at most one game (WFT, Cowboys)
c. Minnesota wins both games (Packers, Bears)
If only the Niners, Saints and Eagles are 9-8 (or better in Philly’s case), the Niners lose the tiebreaks. If the Vikings also finish 9-8, the Saints and Niners win the tiebreaks.
3. The Niners also can make the playoffs with eight wins if no more than one NFC playoff contender finishes with nine wins and Washington does not win out.

ON THE BUBBLE: LA Chargers, Miami, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Baltimore, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
Teams on the bubble either need some help to get in or control their own destiny but have a difficult schedule to end the season.

8. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (8-7)
Remaining games: vs Denver, at Las Vegas
Playoff chances: 35%
The Week 16 loss at Houston hurt the Chargers significantly. Instead of being 9-6 and controlling their playoff destiny, the Chargers now need to win two challenging games in the division and also need results to be in their benefit in other places – the Colts, Patriots, Dolphins, and Ravens all own tiebreakers over the Chargers and while the Bengals and Bills do not, they both need to falter significantly for those to be activated.
To make the playoffs, the Chargers must:
1. Win both remaining games and at least two of the following scenarios must occur:
a. Baltimore does not win out (Rams, Steelers)
b. Miami does not win out (Titans, Patriots)
c. New England loses out (Jaguars, Dolphins)
d. Indianapolis loses out (Raiders, Jaguars)
e. Buffalo loses out (Falcons, Jets)
f. Buffalo loses to the Jets and Patriots win out
The Ravens have been beset by injuries problems and while they play both games at home, they are difficult matchups against the Rams and their hated rivals, the Steelers. The Dolphins run a gauntlet to get in, having to travel to Nashville to take on the Titans and returning home to face the Patriots. Miami has had success against the Pats in the past, so that isn’t quite as daunting as it looks. Bottom line, the Chargers need to win and if they do, the path to the playoffs may just open back up for them.
The Chargers also have a path if they win one game

9. MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-7)
Remaining games: at Tennessee, vs New England
Playoff chances: 32%
The Dolphins control their own destiny – all they have to do is beat the Titans in Nashville and the Patriots at home. No sweat. Naturally, if they do not win these games, they need some help. They’re in the nine spot and not the five spot because it would be difficult to envision them running the table, seven game win streak notwithstanding. Neither the Titans nor the Patriots should expect an easy game
The Dolphins can win the AFC East if:
1. Miami wins out (Titans, Patriots)
2. Buffalo loses out (Falcons, Jets)
The Dolphins make the playoffs if they:
1. Win out
2. Win one game and the following:
a. No more than two of the contending AFC teams (excluding the division winners) finishes with 10 wins, or 9 wins and a tie for Pittsburgh.
b. Raiders do not beat the Chargers and lose to the Colts
c. Ravens do not beat the Steelers and lose to the Rams
Adding to the complexity is that the Ravens or Chargers would qualify with 9 wins depending on the order in which Miami wins once. If Miami beats Tennessee but loses to New England, Baltimore makes the playoffs. The other way around and it’s the Chargers that make it in.

10. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-8)
Remaining games: vs Carolina, at Atlanta
Playoff chances: 37%
Out of this group, the Saints have the easiest path in terms of direct opposition. The Panthers have gone 2-10 after starting 3-0, and the whole team appears to have checked out. If the Falcons do not win in Buffalo, their chances of making the playoffs are gone, which leads to another potential lame duck game. This is fortunate for the Saints as they face a litany of injuries and COVID positives. The Saints started 5-2, stumbled, then won two in a row before last week’s uninspiring loss to the Dolphins. On the plus side, they have a strong conference record which will help them in tiebreakers.
The Saints make the playoffs if they:
1. Win out (Panthers, Falcons) and one the following scenarios occur:
a. Philadelphia and San Francisco do not win out
b. San Francisco wins out and Philadelphia does not win out
c. Philadelphia wins out, and San Francisco and Minnesota do not win out
2. The Saints can also make the playoffs with eight wins as long as Washington does not win out, either Philadelphia or San Francisco lose both games, and Minnesota and Atlanta do not win both their remaining games. New Orleans would also need to ensure that the loss was to the Panthers and not the Falcons in this scenario.

11. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (8-7)
Remaining games: at Indianapolis, vs LA Chargers
Playoff chances: 17%
This is a tough schedule for the Raiders, rivaling the Dolphins last two games but, like the Dolphins, they have one advantage: if they win both games, they are in the playoffs (if the Raiders and Dolphins both win out, they’re each in at the expense of the Patriots). So even with this turbulent year, with the Jon Gruden controversy and subsequent resignation, and Henry Ruggs vehicular manslaughter charge, and (to a lesser extent) the ongoing call from some fans for the Raiders to replace QB Derek Carr with Marcus Mariota, the Raiders still have a legitimate shot at the postseason. They gotta win the games, but it’s better to have your fate in your own hands than to need to rely on someone else.
The Raiders can make the playoffs if they:
1. Win out (Colts, Chargers)
2. Beat the Chargers and:

12. BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-7)
Remaining games: vs LA Rams, vs Pittsburgh
Playoff chances: 22%
The Ravens find themselves at 8-7, just outside the playoffs seeds with 2 weeks to go, but what is a true picture of this team? They started off 5-1, with Lamar Jackson making a soft MVP push. However, the cracks were showing in the defensive unit that has been traditionally strong, but not this season, especially not in the secondary. Since that 5-1 start, the Ravens are 3-6, including losers for four straight as they head into a huge game at home against the Rams. There is a caveat with that four game losing streak: before they got thumped (for a second time this season) by the Bengals, the Ravens lost three games by four total points and in each of those games, the Ravens had a chance to convert a two-point conversion in the final two minutes that would’ve either won or tied the respective games. Even short-handed, even without Lamar Jackson, this team will not go out without a fight. But is the fight now too much for them?
The Ravens can win the division if:
1. Baltimore wins out (Rams, Steelers)
2. Cincinnati loses out (Chiefs, Browns)
The Ravens can otherwise make the playoffs if:
1. Baltimore wins out and two of the following scenarios occur:
a. Miami does not win out (Titans, Patriots)
b. LA Chargers do not win out (Broncos, Raiders)
c. New England loses out (Jaguars, Dolphins)
d. Buffalo loses out (Falcons, Jets)
e. Buffalo loses to the Jets and does not win the AFC East
f. Indianapolis loses out
g. Las Vegas loses out
As with the rest of the AFC North, the Chiefs-Bengals game has a seismic impact on the Ravens playoff hopes. The Ravens advantage over the Steelers and Browns is that they put the pressure on other teams by winning out and only need a couple situations to play themselves out. The thing working against the Ravens, they have to beat the Rams and likely without Lamar Jackson.

13. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-8)
Remaining games: at Green Bay, vs Chicago
Playoff chances: 9%
The Vikings are a difficult team to get a handle on, still only one game has been decided by more than a possession, and they’ve defeated the Packers and lost to the Lions. Sunday night’s game against those Packers though will be a challenge, but if they do not beat the Pack the playoffs become a pipe dream. The Vikings own some tiebreakers but not all, which means they’ll be very interested in how the other games shake out
The Vikings can make the playoffs if:
1. Minnesota wins out (Packers, Bears) and two of the following scenarios occur:
a. San Francisco does not win out (Texans, Rams)
b. Philadelphia does not win out (WFT, Cowboys)
c. New Orleans does not win out (Panthers, Falcons)
San Francisco owns the head-to-head tiebreaker (and all the other wild card contenders except New Orleans) and the Saints have a better strength-of-victory win percentage than Minnesota. Minnesota though wins a tiebreaker with the Falcons and Eagles. The Vikings do have a shot at getting in with eight wins which involves this specific scenario:
1. Minnesota wins one game (Packers or Bears)
2. Philadelphia loses out
3. Atlanta loses to the Bills and beats the Saints
4. New Orleans also loses to the Panthers
5. Washington loses to the Giants

14. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-7-1)
Remaining games: vs Cleveland, at Baltimore
Playoff chances: 12%
The future of likely HOF QB Ben Roethlisberger looks to be nearing the end – Big Ben is looking like a shell of his former self and the Steelers look to be on the verge of a rebuild which he likely does not want to endure as a 40 year old QB. That said, the Steelers still have a shot at making the playoffs, and they won’t have any pesky tiebreakers to deal with.
The Steelers can win the AFC North if:
1. Pittsburgh wins out (Browns, Ravens)
2. Cincinnati loses out (Chiefs, Browns)
The Steelers can make the playoffs otherwise if:
1. Pittsburgh wins out
2. Two or fewer wild card teams have 10 or more wins
The first domino to fall for the AFC North will be the Chiefs-Bengals game on Sunday. If the Bengals pull out that victory, they win the division and the rest of the division needs to hope on some level or miracles for a wild card spot, including the Steelers. For the Steelers, the games themselves are winnable, all the teams in the AFC North are good, though none of them are great and you can expect tight contests in each game regardless of the stakes for each team.

15. CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-8)
Remaining games: at Pittsburgh, vs Cincinnati
Playoff chances: 13%
The 7-8 Browns are 12th in the AFC standings but still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs, if only because the rest of the division is separated only by two games and some of the scenarios for other teams are definitely achievable.
The Browns can win the AFC North if:
1. Cleveland wins out (Steelers, Bengals)
2. Cincinnati also loses to the Chiefs
3. Baltimore loses at least one game (Rams, Steelers)
With Cleveland’s earlier victory over the Bengals and the Ravens’ poor divisional record, the Browns hold tiebreakers over both. A Browns win over the Steelers on Monday night would eliminate Pittsburgh. While Cincinnati and Baltimore both play at home this weekend, their matchups are very difficult. Does this mean the Browns will win out and take the North? If this weekend goes their way, they’ll reason for confidence in Week 18 after they crushed Cincinnati at home in Week 9.

LONGSHOTS: Washington, Atlanta, Denver
The longshots are teams that are mathematically in the playoff race, but need wins by them, losses by a lot of others, and advanced calculus to make it into the playoffs. If the Broncos make the playoffs, beers are on me to anyone who reads this.

16. WASHINGTON (6-9)
Remaining games: vs Philadelphia, at NY Giants
Playoff chances: 7%
Despite their recent implosion, Washington still has a better shot at the playoffs than the Falcons and Broncos. One reason is that their games are somewhat easier in terms of strength of opponent. The Eagles are a tough out, but the Giants are playing out the string and a playoff team should be able to beat them regardless.
8-9 Washington would have tiebreaker advantages over every other NFC, which means their playoff scenario is:
1. Beat the Eagles and Giants
2. All other contenders, except one, finish 8-9 or worse. Which means at least four of the following five must take place:
a. Philadelphia also loses to the Cowboys in Week 18
b. San Francisco loses out (Texans, Rams)
c. Minnesota does not win out (Packers, Bears)
d. Atlanta does not win out (Bills, Saints)
e. New Orleans does not win out (Panthers, Falcons)
The first scenario (win out and Philly loses to Dallas) is somewhat plausible – if Dallas is still jockeying for seeding, going all out to beat the Eagles would be desirable for them. San Francisco likely beats the Texans at home this weekend, which means they’re looking for the Vikings, Falcons, and Saints to all lose at least one game. The Saints are the one to watch for, as the Panthers have little to play for and, if the Falcons lose to the Bills this weekend, they’ll also only be playing for pride. Regardless of what happens in other games, Washington also has to take care of business, which is easier said than done, as they are riding a three-game losing streak and have one of the worst point differentials in the NFC.

17. ATLANTA FALCONS (7-8)
Remaining games: at Buffalo, vs New Orleans
Playoff chances: 3%
Atlanta has a better record than Washington but worse odds. The reason: Atlanta is just 4-7 in conference play – the best they can do is 5-7, and they lost to both the Niners and Eagles, eliminating another in, and means that an 8-9 Falcons are guaranteed to miss the playoffs (the Niners and Eagles can do no worse than that). The Falcons could finish as high as 6th in the NFC if everything goes their way, but they would need to be the only NFC team to finish 9-8. The scenarios to make it in at all are:
1. Beat the Bills and Saints
2. Have at least two of the following scenarios happen:
a. San Francisco loses out (Texans, Rams)
b. Philadelphia loses out (WFT, Cowboys)
c. Vikings lose one of their remaining games (Packers, Bears)
If the Falcons win out and two of those scenarios occur, the Falcons are seventh in the NFC, if all three occur, the Falcons are sixth.

18. DENVER BRONCOS (7-8)
Remaining games: at LA Chargers, vs Kansas City
Playoff chances: <0.1%
In 18th and last place are the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have one very specific path to the postseason in which all criteria below must be met:
1. Beat the Chargers and Chiefs
2. Las Vegas must lose out (Colts, Chargers)
3. Baltimore must lose to the Rams and beat the Steelers
4. Cleveland must beat the Steelers and lose to the Bengals
5. Miami must lose out (Titans, Patriots)
The Broncos would win the tiebreaker over the Chargers and no other team would be 9-8. Denver would sneak in if all TEN results happen in their favour. That would be one hell of a parlay.

The penultimate week of the NFL season is unlike any others: there are no Thursday or Saturday games at all this week! That’s right, you don’t need to worry about missing your TNF football game (*ahemJoeahem*) and you can concentrate on getting all your picks ahead of the games on Sunday afternoon.

Of course, with just two weeks left, some huge games on the slate this week:

The Rams travel across the country to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in a non-conference matchup. The Rams lock up the NFC West if they win out, while the Ravens need to win out and get help to make the playoffs in the AFC.
Chiefs at Bengals: the Bengals clinch the AFC North with a win. All they have to do is defeat the Chiefs, who are winners of nine in a row. A Chiefs win and a Titans loss would lock up the 1 seed for KC.
Dolphins at Titans: a couple weeks ago, this would’ve been considered a walkover for the AFC South leading Titans, now this game has significant stakes for each team. The Dolphins maintain their hold on the final wild card spot with a win, while the Titans can lock up their division if they win. The Titans can still miss the playoffs if they lose out (at Houston in Week 18… don’t laugh, they lost to the Texans at home in Week 11), the Colts win out, and a few other results go against them.
Raiders at Colts: If the Raiders win both of their remaining games, they’re headed to the postseason. They just have to beat the red-hot Colts in Indy then beat their division rival Chargers in Week 18. They would be in the rare position of having won head-to-head matchups with all of their competitors (beat the Dolphins and Ravens already, then a win over Indy would bring an elimination game between the Chargers and Raiders to end the season). Indianapolis locks up a playoff spot with a win.
Eagles at Washington: even with the WFT free-fall (and crash landing last week at Dallas), 6-9 Washington can still make the playoffs if they win out and get help. The formula is much easier for Philly – win both games and they are in. Lose this game and things get hairy.
Falcons at Bills: the Bills are back in the driver’s seat in the AFC East, but will still need to win out to take the division. The Falcons’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread – they need to win their last two games and get help to have a shot.
Jaguars at Patriots: The Patriots still haven’t clinched a playoff spot and need this game to make certain of their chances. With a loss, the Jags would be one step closer to securing the first overall pick for the second year in a row.
Buccaneers at Jets: Having already locked up the NFC South, the Bucs will look to improve their position among the top four with a win. The Jets are playing for pride.
Giants at Bears: Even the most loyal fans of each team will have a hard time justifying why they’d spend their Sunday afternoon watching this game.
Broncos at Chargers: The Broncos still have a chance, but need a laundry list of outcomes to occur to get into the playoffs. The Chargers need this win ahead of a potential win-and-in game against the Raiders in Week 18.
Cardinals at Cowboys: The Cardinals are in but struggling. They’ve lost the division lead to the Rams and are in danger of losing additional ground in the wild card race. A win is bigger for the psyches than anything else. The Cowboys have won the NFC East and their conference record gives them a significant advantage against every team except the Bucs.
Texans at Niners: The Niners control their destiny. A win here and they are close to safe, which they desperately need as they travel to LA to take on the Rams in Week 18. The Texans have nothing to play for but have been pesky in recent weeks.
Lions at Seahawks: Like the Giants-Bears game but worse.
Vikings at Packers: The Packers own the #1 seed in the NFC and will look to maintain their stronghold on that spot. With a win here, they’re guaranteed to finish no worse than second, though they would need the Cowboys to lose once to get the first round bye.
Steelers at Browns: Both teams have a path to the playoffs, which involves winning the AFC North with 9 wins. That path (for both teams) includes winning out, the Bengals losing out, and the Ravens one of their last two games. By the time this game is played, their fates may already be sealed.

Here is the schedule for Week 17:

Time	Date	Away	Home	Winner	Conf	Pick Due	Time
1:00	02-Jan	NY Giants	Chicago			02-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	02-Jan	Jacksonville	New England			02-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	02-Jan	LA Rams	Baltimore			02-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	02-Jan	Tampa Bay	NY Jets			02-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	02-Jan	Atlanta	Buffalo			02-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	02-Jan	Kansas City	Cincinnati			02-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	02-Jan	Miami	Tennessee			02-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	02-Jan	Las Vegas	Indianapolis			02-Jan	1:00 PM
1:00	02-Jan	Philadelphia	Washington			02-Jan	1:00 PM
4:05	02-Jan	Denver	LA Chargers			02-Jan	1:00 PM
4:05	02-Jan	Houston	San Francisco			02-Jan	1:00 PM
4:25	02-Jan	Detroit	Seattle			02-Jan	1:00 PM
4:25	02-Jan	Arizona	Dallas			02-Jan	1:00 PM
4:25	02-Jan	Carolina	New Orleans			02-Jan	1:00 PM
8:20	02-Jan	Minnesota	Green Bay			02-Jan	1:00 PM
8:20	02-Jan	Cleveland	Pittsburgh			02-Jan	1:00 PM

Before the season started, the Miami Dolphins were a team predicted by some to be a playoff team in a difficult AFC – the team had a strong defense, a young QB that struggled in 2020 but could turn into a franchise QB, and a respected coaching staff led by third year head coach Brian Flores. The season couldn’t have started any worse – after a Week 8 loss to Buffalo, the Dolphins were sitting at 1-7, among those having suffered the ignominy of losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Talk started to circle around the state of the franchise. Media reports had Coach Flores on the hot seat, had the Dolphins heavily in talks for controversial QB Deshaun Watson and, even aside from that, questions were being asked about the future of Tua Tagovailoa… oh, and they traded their first round pick in 2022 to the Eagles in the Jaylen Waddle trade. A Week 9 win over the Texans barely registered in the public conscience – it was an ugly game which featured NINE turnovers, appearing more like a game between two teams who actively wanted to lose. In Week 10, the 6-2 Ravens came to town on Thursday night, fresh off a huge comeback win over the Vikings. The Dolphins were sure to lose this game, in fact 23 of the 44 pool entrants added confidence to their Ravens selection for this game (for the record, two people chose Miami and five people forgot to select a team). The Miami defense had other plans though, with the score 9-3 Dolphins in the fourth quarter, Xavien Howard recovered a Sammy Watkins fumble and took it back 49 yards for a touchdown, helping to secure the win. They haven’t looked back since, winning the next five games (for a seven game win streak) and are now sitting in the last wild card spot and in control of their destiny. Meanwhile, the team they beat on that Thursday night, the team that started 6-2, now finds themselves behind the Dolphins in the standings and needing outside help to make the postseason. The Dolphins have been helped by an easy schedule (Jets twice, Giants, Panthers, and a COVID-stricken Saints aren’t exactly Murderer’s Row) but the only thing you can control is what’s in front of you and this team has taken care of its own business since Hallowe’en. The final two games are very difficult (at Titans and home to New England), but not unattainable. One thing to note, during his tenure in New England, Bill Belichick is 9-12 in Miami… so don’t chalk up any losses yet. Even more absurd: if they win both their games and the Bills lose both of theirs, the Dolphins win the AFC East (unlikely as it would be for the Bills to lose to the Falcons and Jets at home it’s still possible).

On the other end of the spectrum are the now 8-7 Ravens and the 10-5 Cardinals. The Cardinals (through no fault of their own) clinched a playoff berth, but the NFL’s last undefeated team has lost three in a row and also lost the division lead to the surging Rams. As they have the tiebreaker, the Cardinals could come back and win the division if LA slips, but they have the Cowboys this weekend, so going 12-5 will be no easy task. Fortunately for them, they still have the comfort of being assured a playoff spot – the Ravens, on the other hand, have found themselves on the outside looking in after a 41-21 drubbing at the hands of Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The Ravens have been decimated by injuries, especially to their secondary (which was thin to begin with) and to Lamar Jackson (who was essentially all of the Ravens offense) which have escalated their descent, but they’ll need to fix it immediately as the Ravens no longer control their own destiny – the Dolphins are ahead in conference record and the Bengals swept them – so the Ravens must win out to have a shot at the playoffs. For a team that has lost four games in a row, expecting wins at home to the Rams and in Pittsburgh are far from a sure thing.

APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RESULTS
Denzil was our top scorer in Week 16, scoring 16 of a possible 20 points to move into 15th place overall, and a tie for second in mini-pool A.

As we have finished 16 of 18 weeks, we are down to our final 32 games in the NFL season. And with just those two weeks left, Jerome has opened up his lead, now three points ahead of Donna P, Will, and Jason G, all of whom have 191 points. Paul sits just outside the top 4 with 190 points, while Salvo sits two points behind Paul in sixth, with 188.

Name	Total
Jerome	194
Donna P	191
Will	191
Jason G	191
Paul	190
Salvo	188
Steve	187
Neil	186
Sam	186
Alessandro	185
Marcus	185
Adam	184
Baldip	183
Joe L	183
Denzil	181
Team Bracken	180
Molly	179
Courtney	178
CSA Red Bulls	177
Marcel & Aiden	177
Lourdes	177
Gary	176
Predictor	176
Jay P	175
Quinn	173
Jason R	173
Terry	171
Darryl	169
Joe S	168
Ronda	168
Matt	168
Keville	168
Tom	167
Des	166
Justin	164
Farhan	163
Nigel	162
Jason H	162
Darren	141
Mark	132
Donna K	132
Dwayne	129
David	100
Ruby	19
Average	163.86

MINI-POOLS
Mini-Pool A
In mini-pool A, the Predictor had a horrendous week and his big lead vanished overnight. The leader of mini-pool A is now Alessandro, with 56 points. Behind him, we have a logjam of five participants (four eligible) in second place, and they are: Denzil, Molly, Adam, and the Predictor, all with 54. Quinn is in seventh place with 53.

Name	Total
Alessandro	56
Denzil	54
Molly	54
Jerome	54
Adam	54
Predictor	54
Quinn	53
Paul	52
Marcus	51
Team Bracken	51
Salvo	50
Courtney	49
Joe S	48
Matt	48
CSA Red Bulls	48
Sam	47
Nigel	47
Joe L	47
Ronda	46
Farhan	39
Darren	23
Donna K	22

Mini-Pool B
The action is also tense in MPB, with Neil leading the way with 54 points*. Steve is second with 53 and Baldip and Marcel are in third at 51.
* – Donna P and Will are actually ahead of Neil but ineligible due to being in the money positions in the main pool, as is Jason G, though he is just behind Neil.

Name	Total
Donna P	57
Will	55
Neil	54
Jason G	53
Steve	53
Baldip	51
Marcel & Aiden	51
Jay P	50
Tom	49
Keville	47
Lourdes	46
Des	46
Gary	45
Terry	44
Darryl	43
Jason R	40
Dwayne	38
Jason H	38
Justin	34
Mark	26
Ruby	0
David	0

Week 15 was a big week for many teams in the NFL, but it was a really big week for COVID-19. Back on the field after spending most of this season on the sidelines, COVID looked noticeably slimmer and much more elusive, infecting teams at breakneck speed and causing three games to be delayed into Monday and Tuesday. But of course, unlike other sports, the NFL was not to be deterred, as all games were played more or less as scheduled, unlike the NHL, whose schedule has been put on hold while teams work through positive cases.

However, as this is a football pool and this blog has to do with football games, I suppose it makes sense to actually talk about football. And this week was filled with drama:
On Thursday – which seems like a year ago now – the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers fought in an epic AFC West showdown, with the Chiefs winning in OT on a 34-yard slaloming touchdown catch and run by Travis Kelce.

There were expected to be two Saturday night games, which turned into one as COVID ran through the Cleveland Browns. Never fear though, the Patriots and Colts still played in another potential playoff preview, and it was the Colts who came out victorious, despite only completing five passes for 57 total yards. So how did they win? There was the blocked punt by Matthew Adams which was recovered by the Colts in the end zone for a touchdown in the second quarter, but it was mostly due to the Colts second year RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor ran the ball 29 times for 170 yards and this game clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter. Taylor now has more games of 170+ yards rushing (3) than the rest of the NFL combined (2) and, at 1518 rushing yards, has 424 more yards that the second-most prolific RB (Joe Mixon, 1094). It’s no wonder that Taylor is starting to get consideration for the MVP, for anyone that doesn’t want to vote for Brady or Rodgers (or Mahomes).

On Sunday, we were treated to perhaps the biggest upset of the season as the previously 1-11-1 Lions throttled the 10-3 Cardinals 30-12, on the back of a 112 rushing yard performance by previously unknown RB Craig Reynolds. This marks the second impressive showing in a row, following an 83 yard performance against the Broncos in Week 14. So unheralded was the third year player from D-II Kutztown University that he was not fully elevated to the main roster until Monday morning.

In another big upset on Sunday, the New Orleans Saints went into Tampa this weekend and shut out Tom Brady and the Buccaneers by a score of 9-0. The Saints, of course the former team of NBC studio analyst Drew Brees, handed Brady his first shutout loss since 2006, a span of 255 games. Interestingly enough, Brees was never shut out in his 304 game NFL career. Brady will need to play another 18 seasons to challenge that streak again.

APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL WEEK 15 RESULTS

In the pool, our top scorers this week were Donna P, Alessandro, and Des, who all put up 15 points!
Donna is now in the money, as her 15 points put her in a tie for third place with 177 points – and now she’s just two points off the lead.
With his 15 points, Alessandro has cracked the top 15, now in a tie for 13th with 170 points.
Des, well we should focus on the present and not ancient history, so let’s congratulate him on his big week!

In the pool standings, Jerome continues to hold on to the lead, with 179 points.
Jason G is in second place, just one point off the pace at 178.
Donna P, Paul, and Will are all tied for third at 177, with Steve and Salvo just two points behind them with three weeks to go.
All spots are still within range for about 10 contestants who can make a move in the last three weeks.

Name	Total
Jerome	179
Jason G	178
Donna P	177
Paul	177
Will	177
Steve	175
Salvo	175
Joe L	173
Sam	173
Baldip	172
Marcus	172
Neil	171
Alessandro	170
Adam	170
Team Bracken	168
Courtney	167
Predictor	166
Darryl	166
Marcel & Aiden	166
Lourdes	166
CSA Red Bulls	165
Denzil	165
Molly	164
Jay P	163
Farhan	163
Gary	163
Jason H	162
Quinn	160
Terry	159
Jason R	158
Des	156
Keville	156
Tom	155
Matt	155
Ronda	155
Joe S	154
Justin	153
Nigel	151
Darren	140
Donna K	132
Mark	119
Dwayne	114
David	100
Ruby	19
Average	153.83

APY MINI POOLS
MINI POOL A – in mini-pool A, the Predictor has opened up a three point lead on the field, with 44 points through the first three weeks. Alessandro is in second at 41, while Quinn and Adam are tied for fourth at 40.

Name	Total
Predictor	44
Alessandro	41
Quinn	40
Adam	40
Molly	39
Paul	39
Jerome	39
Team Bracken	39
Farhan	39
Marcus	38
Courtney	38
Denzil	38
Joe L	37
Salvo	37
CSA Red Bulls	36
Nigel	36
Matt	35
Joe S	34
Sam	34
Ronda	33
Darren	22
Donna K	22

MINI POOL B
Mini-pool B has become quite interesting. At this point, Donna P has the most points in mini-pool B, with 43, though while she resides in the top four of the main pool, the one prize per person requirement means she would be ineligible for this one if the season ended today. That means Steve, who is in second with 41 points, would take the honours if the season ended today. Baldip, Darryl, Marcel & Aidan, along with Will and Jason G are all in the neighbourhood (though Will and Jason G would need to drop out of the top four to be eligible here as well)

Name	Total
Donna P	43
Steve	41
Will	41
Baldip	40
Jason G	40
Darryl	40
Marcel & Aiden	40
Neil	39
Jay P	38
Jason H	38
Tom	37
Des	36
Keville	35
Lourdes	35
Terry	32
Gary	32
Jason R	25
Dwayne	23
Justin	23
Mark	13
Ruby	0
David	0

MERRY CHRISTMAS!/SEASON’S GREETINGS
As this is (hopefully) the last email until Christmas, I want to take this time to wish all who celebrate a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! (And if you don’t celebrate, that’s just fine too… I wish you well regardless of course!) Normally we’d be just about winding down the pool but with three more weeks, there’s still a ton of action left. I hope everyone has enjoyed their time nonetheless and will look forward to the rest of the season!

Though the Week 15 schedule is not yet complete – and who really knows what will happen with tonight’s games until they’re actually played – the Week 16 schedule is being released today.

With COVID-19 mounting a furious comeback with its Omicron variant, things are starting to look like 2020 all over again with the mass positives and rescheduled games. The cut-off for these games will remain as they normally are, but you will have the opportunity to change your picks if something significant happens after cut-off, as long as the game hasn’t started yet. All that said, there is still football to play and, by golly, they’re going to play every game – even the Jags-Jets slobberknocker.

In Week 16 action, more pivotal games are ahead – aside from the Jags-Jets game, only the Bears-Seahawks game, and maybe the Broncos-Raiders game each of the other games has some level of criticality. Ravens-Bengals will almost certainly decide the AFC North while the Bills-Patriots game has similar implications for the AFC East. The Niners-Titans and Colts-Cardinals games earlier this weekend feature two teams surging at the right time against likely playoff teams that are fading at the wrong time. WFT-Cowboys could be for the division but WFT needs to win tonight first to get into that conversation.

Here is the schedule for this week (at least for now):

Time	Date	Away	Home	Winner	Conf	Pick Due	Time
8:20	23-Dec	San Francisco	Tennessee			23-Dec	8:20 PM
4:30	25-Dec	Cleveland	Green Bay			25-Dec	4:30 PM
8:20	25-Dec	Indianapolis	Arizona			25-Dec	8:20 PM
1:00	26-Dec	Detroit	Atlanta			26-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	26-Dec	LA Rams	Minnesota			26-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	26-Dec	Jacksonville	NY Jets			26-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	26-Dec	NY Giants	Philadelphia			26-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	26-Dec	Buffalo	New England			26-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	26-Dec	Baltimore	Cincinnati			26-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	26-Dec	LA Chargers	Houston			26-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	26-Dec	Tampa Bay	Carolina			26-Dec	1:00 PM
4:05	26-Dec	Chicago	Seattle			26-Dec	1:00 PM
4:25	26-Dec	Denver	Las Vegas			26-Dec	1:00 PM
4:25	26-Dec	Pittsburgh	Kansas City			26-Dec	1:00 PM
8:20	26-Dec	Washington	Dallas			26-Dec	1:00 PM
8:20	27-Dec	Miami	New Orleans			26-Dec	1:00 PM

Week 14 was a bad week for sports books (I’ll wait a moment for you to dry the tears you’d cried for these poor unfortunate souls). The favourites went 10-2 on Saturday – only the Falcons, who were backed heavily by the sharps, and the Ravens, who backdoor covered as a 2.5 point pup at Cleveland – making this a really good week for the pool as well. Before we get into that though, an interest turn of events in the games: __ teams held leads of greater than 20 points, only for those leads to evaporate (or nearly go away entirely):

Minnesota was up 29(!) points on Pittsburgh, only for the Steelers to mount a furious comeback and have a potential game-tying touchdown pass broken up by Harrison Smith in the last play of the game.
Cleveland led a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens 24-3 in the first half, before the Ravens led a late rally to get it to 24-22. After recovering an onside kick with 80 seconds left, the Ravens were not able to pick up a first down and the Browns were able to hold on.
The Cowboys built a 24-0 halftime lead on Washington, and led 27-8 with just over five minutes left, then Jonathan Williams scored on a one-yard TD plunge with 5:13 left and on the Cowboys’ next possession, Cole Holcomb intercepted a Dak Prescott pass and returned it for a TD with 4:13 left. The Washingtons had one more shot at tying the game, though a Kyle Allen fumble was recovered by Jayron Kearse, ending the rally.
Kansas City jumped out to a 35-0 first half lead only for the Raiders to come back and… lose by even more than that in a 48-9 pantsing by the Chiefs.

The Titans had the week off this week. No, they weren’t on a bye, they just beat the Jaguars.
Tampa Bay also had a 21 point lead, and a 17 point lead with just over nine minutes left, only for the Bills to claw all of that back and force overtime. In OT, Tom Brady threw a 58 yard TD pass to Breshad Perriman to pull out the win.
The Niners only led by 14 points, though they did blow that lead with under ten minutes left in the fourth quarter and they ended up trailing in overtime, only to score the winning touchdown (by much maligned WR Brandon Aiyuk of all people) in a 26-23 win over the Bengals.

APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL RESULTS
In the pool, 27 of the 38 entrants who bothered to send their picks in scored 14 points or more, and of those 27, five of them put up a week-high 16 points:
Paul’s 16 put him in a tie for second place with 165 points.
Steve also scored 16 and now finds himself just outside the money spots, at 163. Steve is also part of a big logjam at the top of mini-pool B.
Adam’s 16 put him in a tie for 11th with 159 total points
Denzil scored 16 of his own, and is now in a tie for 16th.
With Darryl’s 16 point week, he has now cracked the top 20, in a tie for 19th.

Overall, Jerome remains the leader of the pool, with 167 points. He continues to hold a two-point lead over the rest, with Paul, Will, and Jason G all tied for second at 165. Steve, Salvo, and Sam are all tied for fifth with 163 apiece. Still a lot to be decided at the top!

Name	Total
Jerome	167
Paul	165
Will	165
Jason G	165
Steve	163
Salvo	163
Sam	163
Donna P	162
Joe L	161
Marcus	160
Adam	159
Baldip	159
Jason R	158
Team Bracken	157
Neil	157
Denzil	156
Courtney	156
Lourdes	156
Darryl	155
Marcel & Aiden	155
Alessandro	155
CSA Red Bulls	154
Gary	154
Farhan	153
Jason H	153
Predictor	152
Jay P	152
Molly	151
Terry	149
Quinn	146
Matt	146
Ronda	146
Keville	145
Justin	145
Tom	144
Nigel	144
Joe S	141
Des	141
Darren	129
Donna K	123
Mark	111
Dwayne	102
David	100
Ruby	19
Average	143.83

MINI POOL STANDINGS

MINI POOL A
In Mini-Pool A, a surprise at the top as the Predictor holds a one-point lead over Denzil, Adam, Farhan, and Nigel. Team Bracken is two points off the lead with 28 points.

Name	Total
Predictor	30
Denzil	29
Adam	29
Farhan	29
Nigel	29
Team Bracken	28
Paul	27
Jerome	27
Courtney	27
Molly	26
Marcus	26
Quinn	26
Alessandro	26
Matt	26
CSA Red Bulls	25
Joe L	25
Salvo	25
Ronda	24
Sam	24
Joe S	21
Donna K	13
Darren	11

MINI POOL B
In mini-pool B, we continue to have a logjam at the top, with five tied for first and five more within two points of the top. Your leaders: Darryl, Steve, Jason H, Will (who is tied for second overall), and Marcel & Aiden are all tied for the top spot. Donna P is one back, while Jay, Baldip, and Jason G (currently tied for second in the big pool) are all two back.

Name	Total
Darryl	29
Steve	29
Jason H	29
Will	29
Marcel & Aiden	29
Donna P	28
Jay P	27
Baldip	27
Jason G	27
Tom	26
Neil	25
Jason R	25
Lourdes	25
Keville	24
Gary	23
Terry	22
Des	21
Justin	15
Dwayne	11
Mark	5
Ruby	0
David	0

We have past the last quarter pole and are now in the stretch run of the NFL season – with just four weeks to go, and all the byes have been finished, we now have a pretty good sense of who is good, who is bad, and who is just OK.

So what do we know? There is still a strong upper class in the NFC, with the four division leaders and the Rams in the VIP section, and a significant middle class, most of whom are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. In the AFC, we have two teams that are in the elite category, then a bunch of really good teams just content to beat themselves up week after week, then a definite lower class with teams that are not just uncompetitive, but also wallowing in their own filth.

In this edition, I’ll give you the rankings first, then some insight on each team’s to-the-minute playoff chances, teams they hold tiebreakers on, and how each team should fare the rest of the way.

Rank	Team	Record	Division	Div Rk	Playoff Rk	Wk 9 Rk	Last 4 Weeks
1	Tampa Bay	10-3	NFCS	1st	N3	5	vs NO, at CAR, at NYJ, vs CAR
2	Green Bay	10-3	NFCN	1st	N1	6	at BAL, vs CLE, vs MIN, at DET
3	Arizona	10-3	NFCW	1st	N2	4	at DET, vs IND, at DAL, vs SEA
4	New England	9-4	AFCE	1st	A1	15	at IND, vs BUF, vs JAX, at MIA
5	Kansas City	9-4	AFCW	1st	A3	13	at LAC, vs PIT, at CIN, at DEN
6	LA Rams	9-4	NFCW	2nd	WC1	1	vs SEA, at MIN, at BAL, vs SF
7	Dallas	9-4	NFCE	1st	N4	2	at NYG, vs WFT, vs ARI, at PHI
8	LA Chargers	8-5	AFCW	2nd	WC1	11	vs KC, at HOU, vs DEN, at LV
9	Baltimore	8-5	AFCN	1st	A4	7	vs GB, at CIN, vs LAR, vs PIT
10	Tennessee	9-4	AFCS	1st	A2	8	at PIT, vs SF, vs MIA, at HOU
11	San Francisco	7-6	NFCW	3rd	WC2	17	vs ATL, at TEN, vs HOU, at LAR
12	Indianapolis	7-6	AFCS	2nd	WC2	19	vs NE, at ARI, vs LV, at JAX
13	Buffalo	7-6	AFCE	2nd	WC3	3	vs CAR, at NE, vs ATL, vs NYJ
14	Cleveland	7-6	AFCN	2nd	N	18	vs LV, at GB, at PIT, vs CIN
15	Cincinnati	7-6	AFCN	3rd	N	12	at CIN,  vs BAL, vs KC, at CLE
16	Minnesota	6-7	NFCN	2nd	N	22	at CHI, vs LAR, at GB, vs CHI
17	Washington	6-7	NFCE	2nd	WC3	27	at PHI, at DAL, vs PHI, at NYG
18	Pittsburgh	6-6-1	AFCN	4th	N	14	vs TEN, at KC, vs CLE, at BAL
19	Denver	7-6	AFCW	3rd	N	21	vs CIN, at LV, at LAC, vs KC
20	Philadelphia	6-7	NFCE	3rd	N	24	vs WFT, vs NYG, at WFT, vs DAL
21	Miami	6-7	AFCE	3rd	N	29	vs NYJ, at NO, at TEN, vs NE
22	Atlanta	6-7	NFCS	2nd	N	23	at SF, vs DET, at BUF, vs NO
23	New Orleans	6-7	NFCS	3rd	N	9	at TB, vs MIA, vs CAR, at ATL
24	Seattle	5-8	NFCW	4th	N	16	at LAR, vs CHI, vs DET, at ARI
25	Las Vegas	6-7	AFCW	4th	N	10	at CLE, vs DEN, at IND, vs LAC
26	Carolina	5-8	NFCS	3rd	N	20	at BUF, vs TB, at NO, at TB
27	NY Giants	4-9	NFCE	4th	N	28	vs DAL, at PHI, at CHI, vs WFT
28	Chicago	4-9	NFCN	3rd	N	25	vs MIN, at SEA, vs NYG, at MIN
29	NY Jets	3-10	AFCE	4th	N	26	at MIA, vs JAX, vs TB, at BUF
30	Detroit	1-11-1	NFCN	4th	N	32	vs ARI, at ATL, at SEA, vs GB
31	Houston	2-11	AFCS	3rd	N	31	at JAX, vs LAC, at SF, vs TEN
32	Jacksonville	2-11	AFCS	4th	N	30	vs HOU, at NYJ, at NE, vs IND

The Top Tier – Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Arizona
The top three seeds in the NFC, Green Bay, Arizona, and Tampa Bay, also hold the league’s best records. Out of the three, the defending champions appear to have the most complete team at the moment, and the easiest run-in to the playoffs (imagine that bloodbath in New Jersey in Week 17). The 10-3 Buccaneers are still somewhat vulnerable defending the pass, but all other phases of the game are championship level, though the strong passing attacks for the other contenders in the NFC will pose a challenge. Expected end of season record: 14-3, top seed in NFC.
Green Bay (10-3) is the one seed in the NFC, following the Cardinals loss at home to the Rams, and appear to be getting close to full health – their elite corner, Jaire Alexander, is potentially a week or two away from returning from his shoulder injury and they’re hopeful of getting edge rusher Za’Darius Smith back from a back injury before the start of the playoffs. With Aaron Rodgers enjoying another great season and RB AJ Dillon having a breakout season, the Packers could be the team to beat in the NFC. Both the Bucs and the Packers should wrap up their divisions this weekend. The Packers hold a tiebreaker over all teams except Dallas on conference record, and they have head-to-head wins over the Rams and Cardinals. Expected end of season record: 13-4 (14-3 if Lamar Jackson is unable to play this weekend), second seed in NFC.
Arizona (10-3) managed to navigate the ankle injury to Kyler Murray and remain at the top of the ultra-competitive NFC West, though with last night’s loss to the Rams, finishing first in the division is now no longer a certainty. The Cardinals are a pass-first team that can run the ball, though at 4 YPC, not especially efficient at it. On the other end, the Cardinals are strong against the pass but can be beaten on the ground. Arizona holds the divisional tiebreaker over the Rams, as long as they do not lose at home to Seattle in Week 18, the Packers hold a tiebreaker over them and Tampa Bay presently holds a strength of victory tiebreaker. Arizona plays in Dallas in Week 17, which will determine that tiebreaker. Expected end of season record: 13-4. (Loss at Dallas Week 17), 3rd seed in NFC.

The Next Best Tier – New England, Kansas City, LA Rams, Dallas
Both New England and Kansas City are riding long winning streaks (seven for the Pats and six for the Chiefs) and look to be the best of a strong group of contenders in the AFC. The Rams and Cowboys are teams that struggled in the third quadrant, but have the talent to beat any team on any given weekend.
The 9-4 Patriots are coming out of their bye as the hottest team in football. While limping out to a 2-4 start, the knives were coming out for the Patriots, though their completely revamped team just needed time to get situated, as they were able to break off this long win streak through their impressive defense, a solid run game, and a good enough passing attack. This Pats team looks a lot like the teams from the early 2000s, where the defense dominated and the offense just had to do enough to win. Rookie QB Mac Jones already looks like a seasoned vet behind an exceptional offensive line, even if they didn’t need him in their Week 13 win over the Bills. No other AFC team has fewer than three losses in the conference – the Patriots have one. The Pats also hold straight up tiebreakers over the Titans and Bills (though that could change following their Boxing Day game in Foxborough). Expected end of season record: 12-5. (Loss at Miami in Week 18)
It’s not always pretty, but the Chiefs have rebounded from their slow start to be 9-4 in the AFC and looked like a monster team in their 48-9 destruction of the Raiders in Week 14. However, up to that point, it has been the defense that has carried them – the addition of Melvin Ingram to their pass rush and, more importantly, moving Stone Cold Chris Jones back to the interior of the defensive line has invigorated the defensive unit as a whole. The Chiefs still rank in the bottom 10 in overall defense so progress may be hard to see, but are one of the top teams in QB pressures and they’ve allowed just 48 points over the past five weeks. The Titans and Ravens hold tiebreakers over KC and KC’s 4-4 record in the AFC is behind nearly every other team. Thursday’s game against the Chargers in LA will likely determine who wins the AFC West (the Chargers would be tied and sweep the Chiefs if they win, so a definitely must-win for KC). Expected end of season record: 12-5 (Loss at Denver Week 18),
When they’re on, the 9-4 Rams are the most dangerous team in the league. Despite losing Robert Woods for the year, they have the top receiver in the league statistically in Cooper Kupp, they picked up Odell Beckham Jr for nothing midseason, and have other reliable options in second year WR Van Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee. The run defense is one of the league’s best, while Jalen Ramsey might be the best cover corner in the league. Much has been said about the impact that Matthew Stafford has made on the offense and of course DT Aaron Donald is a disruptor in the middle of the defensive line (last night’s game was a prime example of that). However, winning the division will be a challenge for them, which means a road game in the wild card round, likely at Dallas. So the Rams will need to do things the hard way in the postseason. The Rams need to win their remaining division games and have Arizona lose to Seattle to have a claim for the division, but strength of victory is not in their favour. The Rams hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bucs but they lost to the Packers. They hold a divisional tiebreaker over San Francisco, so if they are one game ahead of the Niners in Week 18, I expected them to put forward minimal effort. Expected end of season record: 11-6 (Losses at Baltimore and home to San Francisco), 5th seed in NFC.
The 9-4 Cowboys are an interesting case study. They have a very strong defense, led by two young players that are having outstanding seasons, second-year CB Trevon Diggs and rookie LB Micah Parsons. Their offense is a finely tuned machine, with perhaps the besr receiver trio in the league (now fully back and healthy) and a strong two-headed rushing attack (though Ezekiel Elliott does appear to be battling a knee injury). They have three games left in the division and one against Arizona, and as long as they don’t lose to division foes twice, they are more or less locked into the division and a likely four seed. However, they do have some bad losses on their resume, namely at home to the Raiders and Broncos (the latter of which locks less bad by the week). The Cowboys lost to Tampa in Week 1, so do not hold that tiebreaker, though their 7-1 conference record is superior to everyone else’s, which gives them the advantage over Arizona and potentially Green Bay if it comes to that. Expected end of season record: 12-5 (loss at Philly, Week 18), 4th seed in NFC.

Good teams who own their own destiny – LA Chargers, Baltimore, Tennessee, San Francisco

Teams fighting for their playoff lives (AFC version) – Indianapolis, Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver

Teams fighting for their playoff lives (NFC version) – Minnesota, Washington, Philadelphia, Atlanta, New Orleans

Teams that need a miracle – Miami, Seattle

Teams that are within a game of the wild card, but don’t have a chance – Carolina, Las Vegas

Teams that are bad – NY Giants, Chicago, NY Jets

Teams that are awful – Detroit, Houston

Tire fire – Jacksonville

The fifth-last week of the NFL season has lots of intrigue, as nearly all of the games possess some form of playoff implications:

Time	Away	Home	Line	Predictor
1:00	New Orleans (5-7)	NY Jets (3-9)	5.5	New Orleans +1
1:00	Atlanta (5-7)	Carolina (5-7)	-2.5	Carolina
1:00	Seattle (4-8)	Houston (2-10)	9	Seattle +1
1:00	Las Vegas (6-6)	Kansas City (8-4)	-9.5	Kansas City
1:00	Baltimore (8-4)	Cleveland (6-6)	-2.5	Cleveland
1:00	Dallas (8-4)	Washington (6-6)	6.5	Washington
1:00	Jacksonville (2-10)	Tennessee (8-4)	-8.5	Tennessee +1
4:05	NY Giants (4-8)	LA Chargers (7-5)	-9.5	LA Chargers
4:05	Detroit (1-10-1)	Denver (6-6)	-12	Denver +1
4:25	San Francisco (6-6)	Cincinnati (7-5)	2	San Francisco
4:25	Buffalo (7-5)	Tampa Bay (9-3)	-3.5	Tampa Bay
8:20	Chicago (4-8)	Green Bay (9-3)	-11.5	Green Bay
8:20	LA Rams (8-4)	Arizona (10-2)	-2.5	LA Rams

Saints at Jets: The Saints have now lost five in a row and are seeing their playoff chances dwindle significantly. They get a lifeline in the form of the 3-9 Jets, though even that will be challenging with all their injuries. Taysom Hill will play with his injured middle finger in a splint, while they do have some good news as Alvin Kamara and Terron Armstead both return to the lineup.
Falcons at Panthers: a matchup between two 5-7 NFC South teams may not decide who gets in, but the loser of this game is almost certainly out of playoff contention. The Panthers come off the bye with a big change: Joe Brady is out as offensive coordinator, as he was let go last Sunday, replaced by Jeff Nixon. Nixon is a more run-focused play-caller, which should be more to the benefit of Cam Newton and the offense, but with only a week to get acclimatized, it may be tough sledding for the offense in this one.
Seahawks at Texans: The Texans are poor (at best) but the Seahawks giving nine points to anyone at the road right now is a head-scratcher. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen but still a lot of faith in this 4-8 team.
Raiders at Chiefs: The Chiefs beat the Raiders 41-14 in Vegas in Week 10 and have been winning (albeit ugly) ever since. This is a must-win for the Raiders if they have any hopes of making the post-season.
Ravens at Browns: The line has moved this week from the Ravens being a slight favourite to the home Browns giving 2.5, perhaps due to the injuries in the Ravens secondary. Cleveland has vowed to play Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt more together as they look to pull out all the stops to win this critical game.
Cowboys at WFT: Washington is riding a four game winning streak but is a 6.5 point home dog in this one. The Cowboys are as close to full health as they’ve been all season. A win by the Cowboys all but officially grants them the NFC East title.
Jaguars at Titans: The Titans did lose to the Texans two weeks ago but wouldn’t expect a repeat of that performance here. Rumours continue to swirl in Jacksonville about the culture under Urban Meyer and his future with the team.
Giants at Chargers: Giants QB Daniel Jones will miss this game with a neck injury. Of the 7-5 AFC teams all fighting for playoff positions (all games in the 4 pm window), the Chargers have the most favourable matchup this week.
Lions at Broncos: the Lions have been overrun with COVID and the flu this week, as seven players are on the COVID list, and twelve other players and six coaches are out with the flu. The Broncos infamously played a game last year without a quarterback, so it’s unlikely they’ll have any sympathy for the lines in this one, which is good for them, because the 6-6 Broncos need this game for any hope of playoff consideration.
Niners at Bengals: two teams presently holding wild card spots face off in Cincinnati to maintain their playoff positions. The Niners will be without Elijah Mitchell, but get Deebo Samuel back after a one-week absence. The Bengals will want to make amends after being throttled by the Chargers at home last week.
Bills at Buccaneers: With a loss, the 7-5 Bills would fall out of a wild card spot, as the 7-6 Colts hold the tiebreaker over them. In fact, the Bills do not have tiebreakers over any of their immediate competition for a playoff spot, so they desperately need to find the form they had earlier this season, even on the road against the defending champs. A win for the Bucs, along with wins by the Jets and Falcons would lock up the division for Tampa with four weeks left to play.
Bears at Packers: Justin Fields returns as starting QB for the Bears in this heated divisional matchup at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers chirped to Bears fans that he owned them and the numbers back him up, as Rodgers is 21-5 against Chicago in his career.
Rams at Cardinals: A Cardinals win give them the divisional tiebreaker over the Rams and solidifies their claim at the top of the NFC. While the Rams are in the playoffs either way, they’ve scuffled a little of late and will be looking to get back in the NFC West hunt and make amends for their poor showing against Arizona in Week 4.

Week 14 features the last of the bye weeks, as New England, Miami, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia all finally get to take their weeks off (interesting that all of those teams have played very well of late – if worried about losing momentum this could be an example of an off-week occurring at the wrong time).

The biggest game of Week 14, like Week 13, is the Monday night game. However, would expect the weather conditions to be much different in the dome in Glendale as the 8-4 Rams face off with the 10-2 Cardinals. Other big games this week:
Buffalo travels to Tampa to take on the defending champs. Another big test of a team on the precipice of the non-playoff abyss for the Bills. A loss would mean that the Bills would be outside of the playoffs with four games left.
Dallas at Washington: following a 2-6 start, a four game win streak finds WFT in the second wild card spot and, with two head-to-head games left, the division title is still within their grasp. The Cowboys will look to build on a strong Week 13 against New Orleans.
San Francisco at Cincinnati: two wild card teams face off in Cincinnati with major playoff implications. The Bengals will look to wash away the stink of their Week 13 home loss to the Chargers, while the Niners will similarly look to get back in the win column after their disappointing loss to the Seahawks.
Pittsburgh at Minnesota: the Thursday nighter features a game where neither team can afford to lose, as both teams reside just outside the playoffs at present time. The loser of this game likely has to win out in the final four weeks to remain in contention.
Baltimore at Cleveland: this AFC North showdown means a lot more to the Browns who, at 6-6, need this game to have even a remote chance at the postseason. Baltimore will be looking to rebound after their heartbreaking 20-19 loss at Pittsburgh.
Las Vegas at Kansas City: A loss is fatal to the Raiders post-season chances and with a recent 41-14 home loss to these same Chiefs, Las Vegas’ backs are against the wall in this one. The Chiefs will look to add to their five-game winning streak with a big win over this division foe.

Time	Date	Away	Home	Winner	Conf	Pick Due	Time
8:20	09-Dec	Pittsburgh	Minnesota			09-Dec	8:20 PM
1:00	12-Dec	New Orleans	NY Jets			12-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	12-Dec	Atlanta	Carolina			12-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	12-Dec	Seattle	Houston			12-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	12-Dec	Las Vegas	Kansas City			12-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	12-Dec	Baltimore	Cleveland			12-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	12-Dec	Dallas	Washington			12-Dec	1:00 PM
1:00	12-Dec	Jacksonville	Tennessee			12-Dec	1:00 PM
4:05	12-Dec	NY Giants	LA Chargers			12-Dec	1:00 PM
4:05	12-Dec	Detroit	Denver			12-Dec	1:00 PM
4:25	12-Dec	San Francisco	Cincinnati			12-Dec	1:00 PM
4:25	12-Dec	Buffalo	Tampa Bay			12-Dec	1:00 PM
8:20	12-Dec	Chicago	Green Bay			12-Dec	1:00 PM
8:20	13-Dec	LA Rams	Arizona			12-Dec	1:00 PM

While interesting as a spectacle, a game that features 50-80 km/h winds is not generally one from which you can form many lasting opinions. A lot of factors come into play in anomaly games that you can’t take too seriously. The Bills couldn’t throw the ball early in the game but somewhat found their footing late, especially as Josh Allen started to make some plays using his legs. So while the Bills lost here, there may be some valuable lessons that can be applied as the season goes on. The Patriots not throwing the ball at all could mean that they were not comfortable with Mac Jones throwing in bad weather… but could also mean that they were supremely confident that they just needed to play a ball-control game and felt the early TD was enough for them to do just that.

I’ll go through a series of hot takes heard during and after the game and add my own commentary on how much to take out of them. Usually with these takes there’s a kernel of truth but just taken to extremes because, as always, unhinged shouting is better entertainment than balanced, educated takes.

Hot take: The Bills run defense was embarrassing for a supposed top defensive team. They gave up 222 rushing yards, even though they knew New England was going to run the ball every down. If this team cannot stop the run when they know it’s coming, how can they stop the run when they don’t?
Verdict: This is true to an extent. The Bills only gave up 14 points in this game, so it was more of a bend-but-don’t-break sort of situation for this defense. However, with the more physical, run-heavy teams in the AFC, there is reason to believe the Bills face a challenge in the post-season, especially if paired with any of these teams: New England, Tennessee, Baltimore, Cleveland, or Indianapolis. The Bills were designed to matchup better with Kansas City – and they did blow out the Chiefs in Week 5 – but in the meantime, teams with strong offensive lines that run more often are the teams that will cause them trouble. They had trouble in this game, but also had trouble with the Titans and Colts with their dominant running backs. If they, for instance, face the Titans in the Wild Card round and Derrick Henry is back (and that is his timetable for return at this point) and healthy (jury will be out), we can expect the Titans to give him the ball 30-35 times. Can the Bills stop him?

Hot take: Mac Jones threw 3 times because he is a warm weather QB that can’t handle winter conditions. The Patriots are in trouble if they face a team that can stop the run in the playoffs.
Verdict: We have essentially no evidence to this point that Mac Jones can or cannot play in the cold, blustery northern winters. Jones played at Alabama in a warm weather conference with virtually no games played in the cold. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels may not have been confident in Jones’ ability to throw in bad weather, but wind like they experienced last night is not likely to come up again – there’s a big difference between “blustery” and the gale-force winds from last night’s game. We don’t really have a feel for how he’ll fare in the snow, as he’s never played a snow game. The Patriots have two more home games (one against these Bills on Boxing Day) and we should get more reliable data in those games in terms of how Jones deals with the cold. Further, it is likely that the Patriots felt very confident in their run game and knew with the conditions and their defense, the score would be low. Putting up the quick 8 points was likely as big a factor in how the Pats played this game as their confidence (or lack thereof) in their rookie QB.

Hot take, Part I: The Bills cannot run the ball and cannot stop the run, so they are not built for success in their home stadium or in the playoffs.
Hot take, Part II: The Bills need to build a dome to succeed.
Verdict: The Bills beat both the Colts and Ravens at home in the playoffs last season, despite not being able to fill up the stat sheet. This is a situation where an outlier game should not be taken as gospel when it comes to making decisions about teams. The Week 11 game against Indianapolis however should be taken as a learning moment and it will be interesting to see how they adapt. The playoffs are not a certainty at this point for Buffalo – they are clutching onto the seven seed due to a poor conference record and both the Steelers and Colts have tiebreakers (though the Steelers will not be able to use theirs due to their tie). The Bills more than any other team will need to win 11 games to make the postseason. They still do have the talent to turn this around though and should not be counted out just yet.
With respect to needing a dome? While this team is built more on passing the football and defending the pass, it should be stressed that games like last night’s are outliers and while you can’t say winter games are played in optimal conditions, you can still have success passing the ball in the cold or in some snow. Generally, teams that play in the north or midwest should be built around their conditions though the Patriots did build themselves as a spread passing attack, especially in the late 2000s and most of the 2010s. Also, the Chiefs may not be as far north as the other teams but Kansas City does frequently get winter conditions, and they went to the Super Bowl the past two seasons with an explosive passing attack.

Hot take: The Patriots are the team to beat in the AFC.
Verdict: This one gets harder to argue each week. The Pats have won seven in a row and are 7-1 in the conference, including a comprehensive win over the Titans (without Derrick Henry). They still have the Colts and Bills again in the coming weeks, though their defense has proven to be one of, if not THE, best in the league. The other team to watch out for is Kansas City, who is riding a five-game winning streak of their own. The Chiefs struggled on both sides of the ball early this season but their defense has turned a corner and their offense has been adapting to what opposing defenses have given them in recent weeks. The big thing about the AFC though is that, in any given day, any of 10-11 teams could beat each other. Coaching is the big edge, which of course has always been an advantage in the Bill Belichick era. It would be far from surprising to see Belichick in LA on Super Bowl Sunday though far from a given at this point.

APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL UPDATE
This being the first week of the mini-pools, you can expect an expanded update for this week and all subsequent weeks until the end of the season, as I’ll update both the main standings and the MPs, with the main standings going first.

In the main pool, we once again had a big week from Nigel, who scored 17 of a possible 18 points in Week 13. The only loss? The Raiders losing at home to Washington on a last-second field goal. Nigel was obviously playing possum on us for the earlier part of the season to keep things interesting, as he was once in the bottom five, but have now moved his way up to 32nd in the league with his two big weeks.

In the overall standings, Jerome remains out leader, now with 152 points. Jerome’s one-point lead was maintained, but this time second place belongs to Jason G, who had 13 this week to move up into the runner-up spot. Just behind Jason in third place is the trio of Will, Salvo, and Sam, all with 150 points.

Here are the main pool standings:

Name	Total
Jerome	152
Jason G	151
Will	150
Salvo	150
Sam	150
Paul	149
Steve	147
Donna P	147
Joe L	146
Marcus	145
Baldip	144
Jason R	144
Adam	143
Team Bracken	142
Lourdes	142
Neil	142
Marcel & Aiden	141
Courtney	141
Alessandro	141
Gary	141
Denzil	140
Darryl	139
CSA Red Bulls	139
Farhan	138
Jason H	138
Predictor	137
Jay P	137
Terry	137
Justin	137
Molly	136
Matt	133
Ronda	133
Nigel	132
Keville	132
Quinn	131
Tom	130
Des	130
Darren	129
Joe S	129
Donna K	122
Mark	111
Dwayne	102
David	100
Ruby	19
Average	132.41

Before I start with the mini-pool standings, a reminder that anyone finishing in the top four (and ties) in the main pool are not eligible for prizes in the mini-pools when the season ends, as each entrant can claim only one prize in the pool. The individuals that are not eligible to win *at this time* are highlighted in red. These entrants may be eligible later in the season if their overall pool position drops.

MINI-POOL A
Nigel finds himself in mini-pool A, which means he is in first place in this pool, with his 17 points. Nigel has a two point lead over the Predictor who has 15 points, and in third place is Farhan, with 14.

Name	Total
Nigel	17
Predictor	15
Farhan	14
Matt	13
Denzil	13
Adam	13
Team Bracken	13
Alessandro	12
Jerome	12
Salvo	12
Donna K	12
Courtney	12
Ronda	11
Paul	11
Molly	11
Sam	11
Marcus	11
Quinn	11
Darren	11
Joe L	10
CSA Red Bulls	10
Joe S	9

MINI-POOL B
Marcel & Aiden find themselves in first place in mini-pool B, with 15 points after the first week. Jason H and Will are in second place with 14, while there is a logjam beneath that, with four tied with 13 points and three more with 12. Still a lot to be decided here

Name	Total
Marcel & Aiden	15
Jason H	14
Will	14
Donna P	13
Darryl	13
Jason G	13
Steve	13
Tom	12
Baldip	12
Jay P	12
Lourdes	11
Keville	11
Dwayne	11
Jason R	11
Neil	10
Gary	10
Des	10
Terry	10
Justin	7
Mark	5
Ruby	0
David	0