And now the part you’ve all been waiting for – Part III, the outer reaches of the power rankings where I either:
a) mercilessly bash a team or
b) be overly patronizing
I’m not sure which one is worse, but it’s probably b). If you have expectations of someone and they don’t meet them, you are disappointed. If you don’t have any expectations, then any success is celebrated, no matter how mundane.
NFL FOURTH TIER: MEDIOCRE NFC TEAMS
The NFC East and North divisions are well represented in this section – the one where teams are struggling and likely have little to no shot at the postseason, given how good the NFC frontrunners are, but will celebrate a 9-8 season like it’s time to raise another banner.
20. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-5)
2nd place, NFC North, 3.5 games behind Green Bay
Week 4 Ranking: 19
Strength of Schedule: .544 (7th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-5
Best win: Week 3 vs Seahawks, 30-17
Worst loss: Week 4 vs Cleveland, 14-7
Next four games: at LA Chargers (5-3), vs Green Bay (7-2), at San Francisco (3-5), at Detroit (0-8)
The Vikings have played in one game decided by more than seven points, and three decided by more than four. Every game is close, but there’s something that prevents them from pulling out the victory. Against the Ravens, they had a 14 point lead in the third quarter but lost. Against the Browns, they marched down the field for a touchdown on their first possession and then got NOTHING else. Against the now 8-1 Cardinals, they needed a 37 yard field goal to win. Even still, this team has the traits of a good team. The offense is in the top 10 in the league in yards, the defense isn’t very good, but it has a good pass rush and generates more than double the turnovers that the offense does (11:5). But all in all, this is an average team, with average stats, and while it has a few star players, there isn’t much to get excited about in Minnesota.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Run game, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, pass rushers – Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen, second-fewest turnovers
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: run defense, inconsistent offense
21. ATLANTA FALCONS (4-4)
3rd place, NFC South, 2 games behind Tampa Bay
Week 4 Ranking: 27
Strength of Schedule: .397 (31st)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-1
Best win: Week 9 at Saints, 27-25
Worst loss: Week 1 vs Eagles, 32-6
Next four games: at Dallas (6-2), vs New England (5-4) TNF, at Jacksonville (2-6), vs Tampa Bay (6-2)
After surrendering 80 points in their first two games, and starting the season 1-3, the Atlanta Falcons were written off in many areas (including this one), the Falcons have turned their season around. Sure, they beat the Jets and Dolphins (and Giants) to get to the last wild card spot after nine weeks, but wins are wins and you stack them however you can get them. That said, a team with the 17th-best defense and 20th-best offense against the second-worst opposing schedule does not scream “PLAYOFFS”. However, in recent weeks, the Falcons and offensive-minded HC Arthur Smith seem to have found a formula that works for them. With WR Calvin Ridley taking time to deal with his wellbeing, TE Kyle Pitts is being used largely as a wide receiver (a la Jimmy Graham) and RB Cordarelle Patterson has been splitting snaps at WR and RB. With their revamped offense, the Falcons have gone from stagnant to… well, good enough to keep stacking wins. As the schedule intensifies in the second half, will they have enough to keep their current position?
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Rookie TE Kyle Pitts and WR/RB Cordarelle Patterson: matchup problems
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: WR depth, non-existent pass rush, run game
22. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (3-5)
4th place, NFC West, 4.5 games behind Arizona
Week 4 Ranking: 12
Strength of Schedule: .514 (13th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-3
Best win: Week 8 at Bears, 33-22
Worst loss: Week 9 vs Cardinals, 31-17
Next four games: vs LA Rams (7-2) MNF, at Jacksonville (2-6), vs Minnesota (3-5), at Seattle (3-5) SNF
Every year in San Francisco, it’s the same old story. Injuries. Every year multiple impact players get hurt. Also every year, the Niners go through about 30 running backs. On both fronts, this is true this year. Raheem Mostert, the starting RB goes down with an injury in the first quarter of the season. In Week 4, star TE George Kittle and QB Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt too (also recurring themes). After Mostert got hurt, he was replaced by rookie RB Elijah Mitchell, a find in the sixth round in the 2021 draft. Of course, he also got hurt in Week 2 and had to miss two games. I could go on. Long story short, the Kittle injury hurt as WR Deebo Samuel was left to handle the pass catching duties more or less by himself and while he has the second-most yards of any receiver (49 rec, 882 yards), there has been little help. The biggest issue so far this season has been turnovers. They don’t manufacture enough (5, tied for last with Jacksonville) and create too many (14, including 8 fumbles, third-most). At 3-5, the Niners still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs (as does every NFC team outside the Motor City) but they need some good health and good luck to get there.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Deebo Samuel, interoperable run game, Nick Bosa
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Injuries, turnover margin
23. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-6)
2nd place, NFC East, 3.5 games behind Dallas
Week 4 Ranking: 26
Strength of Schedule: .514 (14th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-5
Best win: Week 1 at Falcons, 32-6
Worst loss: Week 3 at Cowboys, 41-21
Next four games: at Denver (5-4), vs New Orleans (5-3), at NY Giants (3-6), at NY Jets (2-6)
When the Philadelphia Eagles are at their best, they are a team that runs the football. Miles Sanders is an underrated running back with big play capabilities. Their QB Jalen Hurts, is a good runner who has accuracy issues and is best suited when tasked with short and intermediate throws. Devonta Smith has been great in his rookie season (38 rec, 537 yards) and Dallas Goedert is a good TE (27 rec, 401 yards), but at times, the Eagles get away from what should be their philosophy (like the Week 3 game against Dallas where a healthy Sanders ran the ball exactly twice). With the hard part of their schedule behind them, we’ll see if the Eagles stick to what makes them good or try to force the issue in the air.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: run game, offensive line, DT Javon Hargrave returning to form, Devonta Smith, Jalen Hurts on the move, deceptively good run D
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: refusal at times to run the football, Jalen Hurts throwing, deceptively poor pass D
24. CHICAGO BEARS (3-6)
3rd place, NFC North, 4 games behind Green Bay
Week 4 Ranking: 24
Strength of Schedule: .566 (3rd)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 2-5
Best win: Week 5 at Raiders, 20-9
Worst loss: Week 7 at Buccaneers, 38-3
Next four games: BYE, vs Baltimore (6-2), at Detroit (0-8) Thanksgiving, vs Arizona (8-1)
If you want to know the difference between the AFC and the NFC this year, this is what to know: the Chicago Bears, the 3-6 Chicago Bears with by far the league’s worst passing attack – their 144 YPG average is 50 YPG worse than the second-worst – is in the periphery of the NFC playoff hunt. The Bears have faced the third-toughest schedule and while they still have tough games to go (Baltimore, Arizona, and Green Bay at Lambeau loom), there is a path to nine wins if Justin Fields can turn things around. Not sure it happens this year though – Fields has plenty of arm talent but much too inconsistent and the offensive line is porous at best (Fields has been sacked 29 times) – however, given the right investment, there’s enough glimpses to see what made him a special QB at Ohio State.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: defense, run game
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: offensive line, not maximizing Justin Fields abilities
25. CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-5)
4th place, NFC South, 2.5 games behind Tampa Bay
Week 4 ranking: 14
Strength of Schedule: .421 (30th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-2
Best win: Week 2 vs Saints, 26-7
Worst loss: Week 7 at Giants, 25-3
Next four games: at Arizona (8-1), vs Washington (2-6), at Miami (2-7), BYE
So just as I’m about to do a eulogy on the Panthers since Sam Darnold is out and, even when he was in they were in trouble, but the Panthers have just signed free agent QB Cam Newton for the rest of the season. The veteran comes back to help salvage a season for a team that has some decent pieces in place. Yes, the schedule has been soft for Carolina in the first half of the season, but they are the second-best defensive unit in the league (293 YPG) and second-best against the pass (181 YPG). Their passing offense may not be helped a ton by Newton, but with their former All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey just back into the lineup and Cam set to be back under centre by Week 11 or 12, the Panthers will hope to have their dynamic run game back to give them a push. Despite their recent struggles, they’re only a 1/2 game out of that last playoff spot.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: tough defense, turnovers, star WR DJ Moore (despite QB trouble), CMC is back, Haason Reddick and Brian Burns off the edge, Shaq Thompson carrying on the MLB tradition in Carolina
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: poor passing offense (aside from DJ Moore), run game without CMC
26. NEW YORK GIANTS (3-6)
3rd place, NFC East, 3.5 games behind Dallas
Week 4 Ranking: 28
Strength of Schedule: .566 (2nd)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 2-4
Best win: Week 7 vs Panthers, 25-3
Worst loss: Week 2 at WFT, 30-29
Next four games: BYE, at Tampa Bay (7-2) MNF, vs Philadelphia (3-6), at Miami (2-7)
Going into their Week 10 bye, the New York Giants are looking a lot better – they crushed the Panthers, played tough against the Chiefs in Kansas City, and pulled off a nice home win over the Raiders. Interestingly, the team has played better without their star RB Saquon Barkley. However, the big improvement of the team has nothing to do with Saquon – their defense has stepped up. They’re getting better play from the secondary – CB James Bradberry has played a lot better in recent weeks and S Xavier McKinney has been good all season – and from their star DE Leonard Williams. Going to Tampa will be a tough test in Week 11 but games against the Eagles and Dolphins will help determine whether the Giants are capable of a late-season push.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: turnover margin, Leonard Williams, Xavier McKinney
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: run defense, run offense, injuries to skill position players, Daniel Jones inconsistency
27. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (2-6)
4th place, NFC East, 4 games behind Dallas
Week 4 Ranking: 21
Strength of Schedule: .574 (1st)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-6
Best win: Week 4 at Falcons, 34-30
Worst loss: Wee 3 at Buffalo, 43-21
Next four games: vs Tampa Bay (7-2), at Carolina (4-5), vs Seattle (3-5) MNF, at Oakland (5-3)
The 2020 season had a lot of great stories for the Washington Football Team – HC Ron Rivera was diagnosed with cancer, for which he underwent treatments during the season (and did not miss a game), then announced his cancer was in remission by late October. On the field, Alex Smith came back from that gruesome leg injury that almost ended his life. Washington took inspiration from those stories, some exceptional play from the defensive front (including DROY Chase Young), and a soft schedule, and one of the softest divisions in NFL history, as WFT went from a 2-7 start to a late season run that catapulted them into the playoffs at 7-9. This season? The schedule is a LOT tougher (the toughest in the NFL through nine weeks), the defense has struggled (the worst defense against the pass), and a Week 1 hip injury to starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick have conspired to put the Washingtons down to a 2-6 start. While this first half is a lot like last year’s first half, it will be tough for them to rebound. Also, as Dallas is already at 6-2, just going 8-9 or 7-10 won’t be enough for them to win the division.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: run game, run defense, Terry McLaurin (one of the most underrated WR in the league), Antonio Gibson, DT Jonathan Allen – internal disruptor
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: awful pass defense, turnover margin, where is Chase Young?
NFL FIFTH TIER: BAD AFC TEAMS (and DETROIT)
Congrats on making it to the end of the list. And your prize, to see who the worst five teams in the league are. Although, I think there’s little mystery to who will be on this list, and to who will be number 32. Before this season started, it was safe to say that we would see four of the five teams we’ll see here. The fifth one, Miami, is a surprise. The Dolphins were a tiebreaker away from making the playoffs last season and are now a half season away from gifting the Eagles a top five pick (and perhaps better) for the right not draft WR Jaylen Waddle in the 2021 NFL Draft (and not Penei Sewell… or Rashawn Slater, who they could’ve taken at 12).
28. NEW YORK JETS (2-6)
3rd place, AFC East, 3 games behind Buffalo
Week 4 Ranking: 29
Strength of Schedule: .549 (6th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 2-3
Best win: Week 4 vs Titans, 27-24
Worst loss: Week 7 at Patriots, 54-13
Next four games: vs Buffalo (5-3), vs Miami (2-7), at Houston (1-8), vs Philadelphia (3-6)
The Jets have allowed over 31 points per game and score 18, they’re last in total yards allowed per game (408) and they’re one of the worst teams in the league in running the football… so how did they beat the Ravens and Bengals? In the Bengals game, backup QB Mike White went in and threw for 405 yards in his first career start, and rookie RB Michael Carter had 170 total yards and CJ Mosley contributed with 10 tackles. It’s far too early to give up on Zach Wilson, but the offense has opened up, especially in the passing game, since Mike White (and subsequently Josh Johnson) took the helm. The next few weeks (outside of this weekend with an angry Bills team) seem to open up nicely for the Jets to show some improvement. And when Zach Wilson comes back, we’ll see if they stick with White or go back to the rookie. The Jets have more to gain with Wilson getting his reps and, to be fair to him, the jump from the BYU schedule in 2020 (didn’t play any Power 5 teams) to the NFL is a significant jump.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: defensive line (Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers, Foley Fatukasi)
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: both parts of the defense, especially pass defense, lack of experience/talent at CB, run offense
29. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-6)
3rd place, AFC South, 4.5 games behind Tennessee
Week 4 Ranking: 31
Strength of Schedule: .514 (15th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-2
Best win: Week 9 vs Bills, 9-6
Worst loss: Week 1 at Texans, 37-21
Next four games: at Indianapolis (4-5), vs San Francisco (3-5), vs Atlanta (4-4), at LA Rams (7-2)
The first half of the first season of the Urban Meyer has been, put simply, a disaster. We knew this would be a rebuilding year for the Jaguars, but his off-the-field scandal along with his less-than-definitive response to rumours of him taking the USC job have not helped matters. QB Trevor Lawrence has struggled this year, despite a good run game and a half-decent offensive line (the interior more than the tackles). While the pass defense has been poor (second-worst YPA, 7.5), the run defense is actually fourth-best in the league in yards per carry (3.8). This team has some tools to be a tough team (if not very good) as long as they get more consistency from their rookie QB.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: run game/James Robinson, run defense, defensive line, interior offensive line, the “other” Josh Allen, PR/KR Jamal Agnew
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: pass defense, turnovers, pass rush
30. MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-7)
4th place, AFC East, 3.5 games behind Buffalo
Week 4 Ranking: 25
Strength of Schedule: .493 (22nd)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-5
Best win: Week 1 at Patriots, 17-16
Worst loss: Week 6 vs Jaguars 23-20 (London)
Next four games: vs Baltimore (6-2) TNF, at NY Jets (2-6), vs Carolina (4-5), vs NY Giants (3-6)
Nothing has gone right this season for a Dolphins team that is losing due to two factors: not addressing its glaring needs in the offseason, and the significant decline in its star corners, especially Xavien Howard. The Dolphins were a team thin on playmakers, offensive line, and at linebacker. The only real moves they made to repair any of those was to trade two firsts and a fourth to move up 6 places to get WR Jaylen Waddle in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, and take T Liam Eichenberg in the second round. Waddle has been good (56 rec, 495 yds, 3 TD) though limited by the offense, while Eichenberg has struggled (though the rest of the line is no better). This also doesn’t address the continued struggles of Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has struggled when in the lineup so far this season and while a lot of his struggles can be blamed on a poor offensive line and the constant Deshaun Watson rumours swirling around the team, his production has been lacking. He doesn’t seem to be the same player he was at Alabama and the hip injury he suffered there is likely a key contributor. All those factors have resulted in a Miami team that looks awful on the field and on the stat sheet, ranking third last in total yards per game on offense (297) and third last in YPG on defense (392). If looking for positives, there are a few: DT Christian Wilkins and DE Emmanuel Ogbah are having strong seasons in the Dolphins defensive front, while TE Mike Gesicki and Waddle are a promising 1-2 combo at the receiver positions.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Defensive front, Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle as slot receiver, run defense is league average (I’m trying!)
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Offense, pass defense, pass rush aside from Ogbah
* – ignore the Thursday night game. They basically did everything opposite to what they did the first nine weeks of the season. About time!
31. HOUSTON TEXANS (1-8)
4th place, AFC South, 6 games behind Tennessee
Week 4 Ranking: 32
Strength of Schedule: .532 (11th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-5
Best win: Week 1 vs Jaguars, 37-21
Worst loss: Week 4 at Bills, 40-0
Next four games: BYE, at Tennessee (7-2), vs NY Jets (2-6), vs Indianapolis (4-5)
The Houston Texans are bearing the bitter fruit they’ve been planting over the past few years. Terrible trade decisions by former HC/GM Bill O’Brien have left a barren team with very little today and very little to look forward to in the immediate future. This team is in the bottom five of nearly every statistical category, including last in offense (280 YPG), last in rushing (75 YPG), third-last in passing (205 YPG is better than New Orleans and Chicago), second-last in run defense (137 YPG), and fifth-last in total yards allowed (386 YPG). They’re two full PPG worse than second-last (14.2 vs Jacksonville’s 16.5), and third-last in points allowed per game (28.7 is better than the Lions and Jets). This is all without even touching on the debacle that is Deshaun Watson. The Texans had to fill gaps with jettisoned veterans and young players in way over their heads. On the plus side, the
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Brandin Cooks, Jonathan Greenard, getting turnovers
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: offense and defense, giving up turnovers
32. DETROIT LIONS (0-8)
4th place, NFC North, 6.5 games behind Green Bay
Week 4 Ranking: 30
Strength of Schedule: .536 (10th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-4
Best win: Errrr….
Worst loss: Week 9 vs Eagles, 44-6
Next four games: at Pittsburgh (5-3), at Cleveland (5-4), vs Chicago (3-6) Thanksgiving, vs Minnesota (3-5)
As bad as the Lions have been, you could at least say they competed… until last week’s decimation by the Eagles. In his opening press conference, HC Dan Campbell said infamously stated this team would be tough and it appears to be the case… the only problem is that this team is not very talented with a few exceptions, notably TE TJ Hockenson, C Frank Ragnow, and rookie LT Penei Sewell. The Lions are in the bottom three in average yards per pla y on offense (5.0 YPP) and defense (6.25). Naturally, not a recipe for success.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Team effort against good teams (Ravens and Rams games), TJ Hockenson, D’Andre Swift as pass-catcher, offensive line (at least the left side – Sewell, Jackson, Ragnow/Brown)
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: pass defense, pass rush, offensive efficiency