A continuation of the APY NFL Power Rankings: this week we go over the second and third tiers: the Middle Class tier, and the “how should I know?” tier featuring the Seahawks and the Broncos. The Seahawks due to them being a completely different team with the returning Russell Wilson, the Broncos because this team can beat anyone or lose to anyone in any given week.
NFL SECOND TIER: THE MIDDLE CLASS
Following some distance behind the top eight teams in the league follows a peloton of nearly 20 teams from New England to WFT. This group represents the bulky middle of the NFL – teams that range from good (but not THAT good) to bad (but not THAT bad). To break up the middle a little bit, the list has been split between the middle class of the AFC (which mostly fall in the good but not great bucket) and another bucket that contains most of the NFC teams (which are generally really good but fall short of being moribund). Today, we’ll the better (AFC) half of the list, starting with a team that might come as a surprise:
9. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-4)
2nd place, AFC East, 1/2 game behind Buffalo
Week 4 Ranking: 23
Strength of Schedule: .440 (28th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 1-3
Best win: Week 8 at Chargers, 27-24
Worst loss: Week 1 vs Dolphins, 17-16
Next four weeks: vs Cleveland (5-4), at Atlanta (4-4) TNF, vs Tennessee (7-2), at Buffalo (5-3) MNF
For the first six games of the season, the Patriots looked stuck in neutral. Against the bad teams, they’d struggle to perform (lost to Miami Week 1, then narrowly beat Houston in Week 5). Against the good teams, they’d be up for the challenge but narrowly lose (lost the Brady comeback game in Week 4 and in OT to Dallas in Week 6). However, was there any doubt that a Bill Belichick-coached team would turn the corner? I suppose yes, given last year was mediocre all the way through, but this year’s version had the patented Patriots October turnaround. A romp against the Jets, then two road wins against the Chargers and Panthers have put New England back in the division race and back to the national consciousness.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Defense, interceptions
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Running game, fumbles
10. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-3)
1st place, AFC West, with tiebreaker over Las Vegas
Week 4 Ranking: 7
Strength of Schedule: .544 (8th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 3-3
Best win: Week 3 at Chiefs, 30-24
Worst loss: Week 7 at Ravens, 34-6
Next four weeks: vs Minnesota (3-5), vs Pittsburgh (5-3), at Denver (5-4), at Cincinnati (5-4)
Much like last season, the Los Angeles Chargers find themselves in a lot of tight games against good competition. This season, however, the Chargers are getting their fair share of close wins, including this past weekend against Philadelphia. The return of Derwin James to the Chargers secondary has made a big difference on defense while Justin Herbert continues to mature into one of the more talented quarterbacks in the league. However, with this schedule, what is in store for the Chargers in the second half?
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Passing offense, secondary
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Run defense, run offense, pass rush, schedule
11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (5-4)
T-3rd place, AFC West, 1/2 game behind LA Chargers
Week 4 Ranking: 8
Strength of Schedule: .558 (4th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 2-4
Best win: Week 1 vs Cleveland, 33-29
Worst loss: Week 7 at Titans, 27-3
Next four weeks: at Las Vegas (5-3) SNF, vs Dallas (6-2), BYE, vs Denver (5-4)
Something is not quite right with the Kansas City Chiefs. Sure, they’ve faced the league’s fourth-hardest schedule and they still, statistically speaking, have one of the more potent passing offenses, but that said, they’ve struggled in recent weeks to put points on the board and, until very recently, have struggled to stop offenses from scoring on them. Is this a Super Bowl hangover for Patrick Mahomes and team? Is it a prolonged slump that will resolve itself? Only time will tell, but one thing is for certain, the tough schedule is not going away, and teams are eager to prove themselves against the KC offense, so there will be no easy games from here on out.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Super Bowl pedigree
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Turnovers, defense, schedule
12. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-3)
2nd place, AFC North, 1 game behind Baltimore
Week 4 Ranking: 22
Strength of Schedule: .551 (5th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 3-3
Best win: Week 1 at Bills, 23-16
Worst loss: Week 3 vs Bengals 24-10
Next four weeks: vs Detroit (0-8), at LA Chargers (5-3) SNF, at Cincinnati (5-4), vs Baltimore (6-2)
After starting the season 1-3, including losing the first two games at home, the Steelers started hearing the murmurs – that the team was done, that Mike Tomlin’s incredible streak of 14 seasons at or above .500 was done, that Tomlin was headed to USC, that Ben Roethlisberger was well past his prime, and that the offensive line can’t get it done. Since then, the Steelers have won four in a row and have done so by playing Steelers football – tough, hard-nosed football – relying heavily on its star-studded defense to win games, while the offense has done just enough (and I mean *just*) to not lose for them. In the incredibly competitive AFC, this may not be enough to make the playoffs but Pittsburgh will never be an easy win for any team.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Good, young building blocks on offense and defense, TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Lack of depth, Big Ben in significant decline, offensive line
13. CLEVELAND BROWNS (5-4)
3rd place, AFC North, 1.5 games behind Baltimore
Week 4 Ranking: 9
Strength of Schedule: .513 (16th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 1-4
Best win: Week 9 at Bengals, 41-16
Worst loss: Week 6 vs Cardinals, 37-14
Next four weeks: at New England (5-4), vs Detroit (0-8), at Baltimore (6-2) SNF, BYE
The AFC North has long been a division that’s predicated on playing hard-nosed football. Run the ball, defend the run, play physical on both sides of the ball. No team is better suited for cold, winter football like the Cleveland Browns. Their offensive line is one of the league’s best (though will be hurt by the loss of RT Jack Conklin), their team is the third best at stopping the run (84.8 rush YPG allowed, and 3.5 YPC), and they are committed to running the football, even when Nick Chubb (third in the NFL with 721 rushing yards, despite missing two weeks already) and Kareem Hunt are out of the lineup (as they will be in Week 10). Oh, and they have Myles Garrett terrorizing quarterbacks, the star pass rusher already has 12 sacks on the season, leading the league. The big question for Cleveland in their aspirations of postseason success lies with the arm of Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is dealing with a torn labrum (and potential broken shoulder) in his non-throwing shoulder and has not looked himself all season. Now that Odell Beckham Jr has been granted his release, will this potentially help Mayfield remove a distraction and play more freely? Even with all the Browns positives, they’ll need that if they want to go deep into the playoffs.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Run defense, outstanding pass rush, offensive line, run game, Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Inconsistent passing, lack of turnovers
14. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-3)
2nd place, NFC South, 1 game behind Tampa Bay
Week 4 Ranking: 16
Strength of Schedule: .500 (18th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 3-0
Best win: Week 1 vs Green Bay, 38-3 (in Jacksonville)
Worst loss: Week 4 vs NY Giants, 27-21
Next four weeks: at Tennessee (7-2), at Philadelphia (3-6), vs Buffalo (5-3) TNF, vs Dallas (7-2) TNF
The Saints have the most extreme season, perhaps of any NFL team. They have a massive upset win over the Green Bay Packers when they were displaced from their home due to Hurricane Irma, which they promptly followed up with an awful game against the Carolina Panthers. Then in Week 8, they score another big win over the defending champions. The following week? They lose at home to the Falcons. The Saints will be put to the test now that QB Jameis Winston is out for the rest of the season after tearing his ACL in an awkward tackle by Bucs LB (and close friend) Devin White. That same week, it was announced that WR Michael Thomas suffered a setback and will not play this season for the Saints. These losses will test the Saints, though if this season has been any indication, they’ll be fine until things get too comfortable.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Elite run defense, protects football, interceptions
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Pass rush, pass defense, anemic offense
15. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (5-3)
2nd place, AFC West, LA Chargers hold the tiebreaker over Las Vegas
Week 4 Ranking: 15
Strength of Schedule: .464 (26th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 3-1
Best win: Week 1 vs Ravens, 33-27 (OT)
Worst loss: Week 5 vs Bears, 20-9
Next four weeks: vs Kansas City (5-4) SNF, vs Cincinnati (5-4), at Dallas (6-2) Thanksgiving Day, vs Washington (2-6)
Off the field, this season has been one of constant turmoil for the Raiders. First, the scandal surrounding emails made by former HC Jon Gruden which were uncovered during the NFL investigation of the Washington Football Team. Then, prior to Week 9, WR Henry Ruggs crashed his car while travelling at excessive speeds while under the influence and killed the passenger in the other car. While it would be understandable for these incidents to weigh heavily on the players, the Raiders have been able to play well in spite of the off-the-field issues. QB Derek Carr is having his finest season as a passer, ranking third in the league in passing yards (2,565), despite already having the bye.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Balanced passing attack, pass rush duo Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue, pass defense, safety play
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: run game, offensive line, run defense
16. CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-4)
4th place, AFC North, 1.5 games behind Baltimore
Week 4 Ranking: 17
Strength of Schedule: .440 (t-28th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 2-2
Best win: Week 7 at Ravens, 41-17
Worst loss: Week 8 at Jets, 34-31
Next four weeks: BYE, at Las Vegas (5-3), vs Pittsburgh (5-3), vs LA Chargers (5-3)
In the preseason, Ja’Marr Chase was having trouble with drops, but also trouble with the football media, which started to doubt his ability to transition to the NFL. Chase himself, however, was undeterred, and with good reason. With nine games in the books, Chase is on pace to break the records for more prolific rookie season in NFL history, surpassing his former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson, Chase is third in the NFL in receiving yards (835) and tied for fourth in touchdowns (7), and third in yards per reception (19.0). While the Bengals could’ve gone with Penei Sewell to address their apparent need in the offensive line, they went the free agent route instead and signed T Riley Reiff from Minnesota. That move has helped bolster the offensive line – though pressure still gets to Burrow far too often (25 sacks in 9 games), it’s at least somewhat better than it has been previously.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Explosive offense, run defense, Ja’Marr Chase historic rookie season
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Pass defense, interceptions
17. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-5)
2nd place, AFC South, 3 games behind Tennessee
Week 4 Ranking: 20
Strength of Schedule: .494 (t-19th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 0-4
Best win: Week 7 at Niners, 30-18
Worst loss: Week 1 vs Seahawks 28-16
Next four weeks: vs Jacksonville (2-6), at Buffalo (5-3), vs Tampa Bay (6-2), at Houston (1-8)
If there is just one thing to like about this team, it’s that the Indianapolis Colts are predictable. They’ll beat the teams they’re better than and lose to those they’re not at the level of – the exact opposite of the New Orleans Saints in that respect. In light of this though, there is this feeling that the Colts are not the sum of their parts, They have one of the best running backs in football in Jonathan Taylor, and he can be used in both the run and pass games. Darius Leonard is a linebacker that can do it all. On paper, they have one of the best offensive lines in football, though it has struggled at times this year – LG Quenton Nelson does not appear to be over the foot injury he suffered in camp. Carson Wentz has decent numbers this season and has carved up lesser competition, but tries too hard to make a play at times and makes boneheaded decisions. The defense leads the league in turnovers (20), but has one of the league’s worst pass defenses
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Turnovers on defense, Jonathan Taylor, Darius Leonard, unbothered Carson Wentz
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Carson Wentz under pressure, offensive line underperformance, pass defense, pass rush
NFL THIRD TIER – “HOW SHOULD I KNOW?”
Hiding somewhere in or below the second tier are two teams that are tough to get a handle on for differing reasons: the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos. Despite not liking what Seattle has done so far this year, Russell Wilson coming back is a significant wild card, as is their end of season schedule, which includes four tough games and five less so. For Denver, the issue is more that they are a very inconsistent team, capable of blowing teams like Dallas out of the water, but otherwise struggles to put points on the board.
18. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-5)
3rd place, NFC West, 4.5 games behind Arizona
Week 4 Ranking: 10
Strength of Schedule: .537 (9th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 0-4
Best win: Week 4 at Niners, 28-21
Worst loss: Week 3 at Vikings, 30-17
Next four games: at Green Bay (7-2), vs Arizona (8-1), at Washington (2-6) MNF, vs San Francisco (3-5)
There is no injury that impacted a team more than a broken and dislocated middle finger did to the Seattle Seahawks. Even before the injury, the Seahawks were struggling on defense, but QB Russell Wilson gave the Seahawks hope that they could overcome those woes. Now, a little more than four weeks after surgery to fix the finger, Wilson finds his way back into the lineup to help save the Seahawks’ season. It won’t be easy though, this first two games are at 7-2 Green Bay and home to the 8-1 Cardinals. If anyone can do it, it’s Wilson – he no longer qualifies but he would be first in passer rating (125.3) and yards per attempt (9.6) by considerable margins. This team is likely at the top of the Middle Class if Wilson remained in. With Geno Smith, the team likely drops to into the next tier below.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Passing offense with Russell Wilson in, Receiver combo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, only four turnovers on offense all season
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: awful defense, run game, toothless pass rush, low turnovers on defense
19. DENVER BRONCOS (5-4)
t-3rd place, AFC West, 1/2 game behind LA Chargers
Week 4 Ranking: 18
Strength of Schedule: .486 (23rd)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-4
Best win: Week 9 at Cowboys, 30-16
Worst loss: Week 6 vs Raiders, 34-24
Next four games: vs Philadelphia (3-6), BYE, vs LA Chargers (5-3), at Kansas City (5-4)
Before Week 9, the book on Denver was pretty clear – they can beat the scrubs but struggle against good teams. Their first four wins were against teams that are now a combined 9-24, they hadn’t topped 24 points since mid-September and were 0-4 against teams over .500, and just traded their franchise pass rusher Von Miller to the Rams. So what do they do? Lay a beatdown on the previously 6-1 Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. The Broncos were up 30-0 with just over 4 minutes left before the Cowboys put up a couple garbage time TDs. The Broncos dominated the game on the ground and by getting pressure on Dak Prescott. If the Broncos lose Week 9, we start looking at the Broncos as 6-7 win team that had a good start because of a soft early schedule. Now? They could be a sneaky playoff contender if things go right. The next few games, especially the back-to-back weeks against the Chargers and Chiefs, will tell us once and for all.
WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Defense, especially against the run, two-headed rushing attack of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, S Justin Simmons
WHAT NOT TO LIKE: Limitations of passing offense, too many sacks
Next up is the third and final part of the series, where we chronicle the mediocre middle of the NFC and the awful teams at the bottom of the standings. See you there!