At this point of the season, tiers are starting to emerge in the league:
Top Teams (8), the teams most likely to appear in the AFC and NFC championship games – appears below
Middle Class (9), a collection of mostly AFC teams that are generally good but with a fatal flaw – will appear Wednesday
The Seattle and Denver tier (2), because I’m not sure what to make of them right now for very different reasons – will also be posted Wednesday
Mediocre NFC Teams (8), teams that are not very good but technically still have at least an outside shot at the final playoff spot – will be posted Thursday
Bad AFC Teams (and Detroit) (5) – will be posted Thursday
TOP TIER TEAMS
These eight teams are the class of the NFL this season. There are some bad losses in there (Week 9 was especially rough to this group) but all of the teams in this section have played like teams that have the potential to be around for AFC/NFC championship weekend. The NFC is a very top-heavy conference, with five teams with two losses or less, but only six total teams above .500. The Bills, at 5-3, are the only three loss team in this group, as their defense is elite enough to merit entry on its own.
- ARIZONA CARDINALS (8-1)
1st place, NFC West
Week 4 ranking: 1
Strength of schedule: .494 (19th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 3-1
Best win: Week 5 at Rams, 37-20
Worst loss: Week 8 vs Packers, 24-21
Next four weeks: vs Carolina (4-5), at Seattle (3-5), BYE, at Chicago (3-5)
The Arizona Cardinals are the league’s only one-loss team, and that loss might’ve been avoided if AJ Green and Kyler Murray did not have THAT miscommunication at the end of the Green Bay game. The Cardinals have what might be the two best wins this season, both on the road: Week 1 at Tennessee, and Week 5 at the Rams
WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM?: Pretty much everything: the whole offense, and pass defense. Led by Kyler Murray, the offense is fast-paced, high-powered, efficient, and protects the football. The Cardinals are fifth in yards per game (398), first in net yards per pass attempt (7.9), first (by a wide margin) in completion percentage (73.85%), second in rushing touchdowns (15), second in points per game (30.8). On defense, the Cardinals are fourth in yards against per game (321), third in turnovers caused (17), first in recovered fumbles (10), and sixth in passing yards allowed per game (210). They’ll have a chance to add to their tally against Carolina, who has 18 turnovers already this year.
QB Kyler Murray: 72.7% Cmp Pct, 2,276 passing yards, 8.9 yards per pass, 17 TD-7 INT, 49 rushes, 147 yards, 3 TD. The do-it-all dynamo is one of the top MVP candidates on the best team in football. Normally, passers who have high completion percentages throw shorter passes, but with Murray’s arm strength and pinpoint accuracy, he’s also able to effectively throw the deep ball.
Thunder and Lightning RB duo: RBs James Conner (454 rush yards, 10 rush TD, 1 rec TD) and Chase Edmonds (430 rush yds, 30 rec, 211 rec yds) have been the perfect thunder and lightning combo, combining for over 1,200 total yards in the Cardinals offense. Conner, the free agent acquisition from Pittsburgh, added some much-needed power running to this offense and is now tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (10).
FOUR good wide receivers: With the Air Raid offense, the Cardinals run more 4 WR sets than any team in the league (though that has changed since Zach Ertz was acquired) and they have used all four of their wideouts effectively – DeAndre Hopkins is one of the better receivers in the league and is the Cardinals’ best receiver in the red zone (35 rec, 486 yards, 7 TD), though Christian Kirk is emerging as a big playmaker (40 rec, 545 yards, 4 TD), AJ Green – Week 8 gaffe notwithstanding – has enjoyed a career renaissance in the desert (29 rec, 456 yards, 3 TD), and rookie Rondale Moore, like Murray small in stature but a game breaker with the ball in his hands, has been used a lot in jet sweep and bubble screen actions to get him the ball in space (34 rec, 352 yards, 1 TD).
The reprisal of the QB Hunters, Markus Golden and Chandler Jones: The Cardinals defense is one of the best in the league and has many talented players, but the return to form for both Jones (6 sacks, 2 forced fumbles) and Golden (9 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) after disappointing 2020 seasons is a big reason for it. Golden in particular has been great off the edge this season, ranking third in sacks and leads the league in forced fumbles.
WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: If there is one hole in this team, it’s their run defense. The Cardinals allow 111 rushing yards per game, which is 15th in the league, but they allow the second-most yards per carry (4.9). The Cardinals are great against the pass and, being ahead in most games, their struggles have not posed an issue for most of the season. However, the Packers were able to control their game by running the football and teams on their schedule that can run the ball like Chicago and Dallas will look to exploit them. This will be an interesting trend to watch as this team was designed to be fast and the defensive line took a big hit when JJ Watt suffered what appears to be a season-ending shoulder injury (though the Cardinals refuse to rule that out). - LOS ANGELES RAMS (7-2)
2nd place, NFC West
Week 4 Ranking: 3
Strength of Schedule: .449 (27th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 1-2
Best win: Week 3 vs Bucs, 34-24
Worst loss: Week 9, vs Titans, 28-16
Next four weeks: at San Francisco (3-5) MNF, BYE, at Green Bay (7-2), vs Jacksonville (2-6)
The Rams are as close to a complete team as there might be in the NFL and since they lost two games at home (one to the Cardinals and this past weekend to the Titans), they may be facing a road game in Wild Card Weekend. The Rams are 4-0 away from SoFi Stadium, so they are comfortable with winning on the road (though not exactly facing Murderer’s Row). Picking up Von Miller will add to an already unfair pass rush and the offense is loaded with Pro Bowlers.
WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM?: Passing offense and run defense.
The Rams traded two first round picks and a third, along with Jared Goff to acquire Matthew Stafford from Detroit and after nine games, the return was worth the price paid. The Rams offense hit another gear with the veteran QB that was not possible with Goff, as evidenced by them being tied for first in yards per pass play (7.9), third in passing yards per game (296), second in passing touchdowns (23), and are fourth in total yards per game (399).
On the other side of the ball, the Rams allow a hair under 100 yards per game on the ground and are ninth in yards per carry (4.1), as teams are generally fearful of running the ball into the teeth of the Rams defense (those teeth belonging to perennial DPOY candidate Aaron Donald). The Rams are also second in the league in interceptions, with 12. Unsurprisingly, CB Jalen Ramsey leads the way with 3 INTs.
QB Matthew Stafford: Stafford has been able to unlock the deep passing portion of Sean McVay’s offense in LA, leading the league in passing yards (2,771), second in TDs (23), fourth in yards per attempt (8.6), and ranks first in the QB rating metric (111), trailing only Russell Wilson.
WR Cooper Kupp: Stafford and Kupp have struck up a nearly unbeatable rapport, which has given some momentum to MVP talks for the veteran wide receiver. Kupp leads the league in nearly every receiving category: receptions (74), targets (103), yards (1019, 137 more than second placed Deebo Samuel), receiving TDs (10, 2 more than Mike Evans and DK Metcalf), receiving yards per game (113.2), and receiving first downs (46).
DT Aaron Donald: where most starting interior defensive linemen play between 50-66% of their teams snaps, Donald has played in over 85% of the Rams defensive snaps this season. He has contributed 37 tackles, 6 sacks, and seven tackles for loss in another exceptional season.
Pass rush: The Rams lead the league in sacks (28), behind an exceptional pass rush, led by Donald (6 sacks), and OLB Leonard Floyd (7.5). Seven Rams have contributed two or more sacks, and this deadly pass rush will be made more lethal with the addition of Von Miller.
WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Run game.
Despite decent numbers individually from RB Darrell Henderson, the Rams run offense is in the bottom half in the league in both yards (103 per game), and yards per attempt (4.0, 11th-worst in the league). Sony Michel has been somewhat underwhelming as the secondary option, which could spell trouble if Henderson goes down with an injury. - TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-2)
1st place, NFC South
Week 4 Ranking: 4
Strength of Schedule: .507 (17th)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 2-2
Best win: Week 1 vs Cowboys, 31-29
Worst Loss: Week 8 at Saints, 36-27
Next four weeks: at Washington (2-6), vs NY Giants (3-6) MNF, at Indianapolis (4-5), at Atlanta (4-4)
The defending Super Bowl Champions are 6-2 coming out of the bye and facing a favourable schedule in the third quartile of the season. This team can put up points with any team, which is fortunate because the pass defense can allow points with anyone as well.
WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM?: Tampa Bay has the league’s best passing offense (327.5 yards per game), the most points per game (32.5), the most passing touchdowns (25), and the second-best run defense in the league (78 rush yards against per game).
QB Tom Brady: the ageless wonder continues to defeat Father Time. The 44 year-old Brady is second in passing yards (2,650), first in yards per game (331), second in pass attempts (343), despite already having the bye week, first in touchdowns (25), and only 5 interceptions. Yet another MVP calibre season from the GOAT.
Offensive Line: LT Tristan Wirfs, LG Ali Marpet, C Ryan Jensen, RG Alex Cappa, and RT Donovan Smith form arguably the best front five in the league has kept Tom Brady upright, with only 12 sacks allowed in 8 games. A big factor in their success – along with their consistetly elite play – has been durability, the starting unit has missed a combined 43 snaps all season.
Wide Receivers: Notice a trend? The Bucs have a trio that could challenge any in the league – Curtis Godwin (50 rec, 660 yards, 4 TD), Mike Evans (39 rec, 544 yards, 8 TD), and Antonio Brown (5 gp, 29 rec, 418 yards, 4 TD). RB Leonard Fournette is also a big part of the offense and if TE Rob Gronkowksi can return to the lineup and contribute, this will be a tough offense to slow down.
Run defense: The interior defensive line, NT Vita Vea and DT Ndamukong Suh, don’t have numbers that light up the stat sheet, but both players require extra attention from the opposing offensive lines, which opens up opportunities for two of the best linebackers in football, Lavonte David and Devin White. Both David and White are tackling machines that might average more than their 7 tackles each per game individually, but together are always around the ball carrier in the run game.
WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: The pass defense has struggled all season, ranking 20th in yards allowed per game (258), 6th last in passing TDs allowed (16), 6th last in opposition completion percentage (68.32%). CB Richard Sherman was signed by the team as injuries began to mount, though his fit in the defensive scheme has not been defined to this point. - DALLAS COWBOYS (6-2)
1st place, NFC East
Week 4 Ranking: 6
Strength of Schedule: .493 (21st)
Record vs Above .500 teams: 2-2
Best win: Week 6 at Patriots, 35-29
Worst loss: Week 9 vs Broncos, 30-16
Next four games: vs Atlanta (4-4), at Kansas City (5-4), vs Las Vegas (5-3), at New Orleans (5-3)
It was all good just a week ago. The Cowboys just went into Minneapolis and beat the Vikings with backup QB Cooper Rush, who was surprisingly good. The Cowboys went back home full of confidence, with the knowledge that they could beat an average team with their backup QB and, with their starting QB now healthy, figured they could roll over the 4-4 Broncos. Whoops. The Cowboys got a harsh lesson in being too high on yourselves as the Broncos marched to a 30-0 fourth quarter lead, only to see the Cowboys score a couple garbage time TDs to make the game look less embarrassing. All in all though, the Cowboys are a true contender with a high-powered offense and an improved defense. If they can play like they mean it – like they did the previous eight weeks – big things may be happening in Big D.
WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Best offense in the league?, timely picks on defense
Even with the slip-up last week, the Cowboys still have one of the league’s best offenses, with the most average yards per game (423), most yards per play (6.4), third-most points per game (30.1), third-most rushing yards per game (142.8), and fourth-most passing yards per game (291.5)
Dak Prescott: After suffering that gruesome ankle injury last year, Prescott has returned to form in a big way, with 2045 passing yards in seven games, 18 TD-5 INT, and a 108.7 passer rating, good for fourth in the league.
Zeke and Tony Pollard: the 1-2 punch of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have combined for 1,025 rushing yards, 301 receiving yards, and 7 total TDs through eight games. Zeke’s return to form is especially welcome after a rough 2020 in which he had his lowest yards per carry and fumbled five times. He has yet to put the ball on the ground this year so far as is at a career-high 4.9 YPC. Pollard has been exceptional in his role as a 1B back, with an impressive 5.6 YPC and 403 rushing yards.
Elite receivers CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz?: Both Lamb and Cooper are big
CB Trevon Diggs: 2021 has been a breakout season for the second year corner, who had interceptions in each of the Cowboys first six games. While he can be beaten at times, Diggs has made impact plays all season for the Cowboys, and leads the league in picks (7), passes defended (12), and defensive touchdowns (2).
WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Pass defense
Yes, CB Trevon Diggs has been spectacular, but the Cowboys still allow too many passing yards. The Cowboys are eighth-worst in yards allowed per game (270.5), and ninth-worst in yards per attempt (7.0), contributing the the Cowboys having the fourth-worst yards per play in the league. This is actually an improvement on 2020, when the Cowboys had one of the worst defenses statistically in league history. However, they will look to make further improvements if they wish to make it to the NFC Championship game (and beyond). - BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-2)
1st place, AFC North
Week 4 Ranking: 5
Strength of Schedule: .471 (25th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 3-2
Best win: Week 2 vs Chiefs, 36-35
Worst loss: Week 8 vs Bengals, 41-17
Next four games: at Miami (2-7), at Chicago (3-6), vs Cleveland (5-4), at Pittsburgh (5-4)
The Baltimore Ravens are one of the best teams in the AFC once again and relying largely on their run game, starting with their dynamic QB Lamar Jackson. However, some things are different about this Ravens team in 2021 – Jackson has improved as a passer, and while the run defense is still strong, the pass defense, outside of a stellar performance against the Chargers, has been among the league’s worst.
WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Lamar Jackson improving as a passer, run offense
Before this season, teams understood that the way to neutralize the Ravens was to force Jackson to become a passer first. Easier said than done for most teams, though in consecutive seasons, the Chargers and the Bills figured out the formula and stopped Jackson and the Ravens in the playoffs. While we haven’t reached that part of the season yet, we are seeing signs that Lamar Jackson is much more confident in the passing game. Jackson is ninth in passing yards per game (276.1), and sixth in yards per attempt (8.3). His improved passing has helped the Ravens win come-from-behind games against Kansas City, Detroit, and Minnesota that they might not have won in previous seasons.
Prior to the start of the season, the Ravens lost their top three running backs – JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill – to season ending injuries. In response to this, their lone remaining RB Ty’Son Williams was joined by free agent signings Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, and Le’Veon Bell. Together with Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have not missed a beat, with the average rushing yards per game (161.6), and the third-highest yards per carry (5.0).
WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Pass defense, lack of turnovers on defense
The Ravens have been uncharacteristically poor on defense, with the second-most yards allowed per play (6.25, ahead of only the Chiefs), and the second-most total yards allowed per game (282.5). Even their run defense, ranked fifth best in the league is somewhat misleading as they still average 4.3 YPC on the ground, which is middle-of-the-pack. A big factor for the defense’s poor performance has been their inability to generate turnovers, getting the ball only seven times on defense all season, ahead of only the Niners, Jaguars, and Jets. - GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-2)
1st place, NFC North
Week 4 Ranking: 11
Strength of Schedule: .474 (24th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 3-2
Best win: Week 8 at Cardinals, 24-21
Worst loss: Week 1 at Saints, 38-3
Next four games: vs Seattle (3-5), at Minnesota (3-5), vs LA Rams (7-2), vs Chicago (3-6)
Despite the circus that has followed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers for most
of this season, the Packers have overcome the distractions, and a horrific opening weekend, to easily lead the NFC North. While Rodgers was getting some soft MVP consideration, the defense has been the strength of the 7-2 Packers so far.
WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Rodgers efficiency, strong defense
The offense has struggled at times and has not put up the numbers you generally suspect from Green Bay, the Packers have turned the ball over only eight times, with only three of those turnovers coming from Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is sixth in the league in passer rating (105.7), and has thrown 17 TD- 3 INT, one of the better ratios in the league.
Davante Adams: Though Adams missed the Arizona game due to a positive COVID-19 test, he still ranks third in receptions (58), fourth in receiveing yards (786), and third in receiving first downs. On a team with only one real reliable option in the passing game, Adams continues to produce, depsite the extra attention paid to him.
Balanced defense: When Jaire Alexander went down with a shoulder injury in Week 4, there were fears that the Packers defense would suffer because of it. On a team with good players but not much top end talent, the Packers have instead become one of the league’s best team defensive units. Five players have two or more sacks, including Rashean Gary’s team leading 4.5; the Packers also have eight players with interceptions, though only LB De’Vondre Campbell has more than one. The Packers are fifth in yards allowed per game (321), fifth in yards per play (5.3), tied for fifth in turnovers (14), and seventh in passing yards allowed per game (210).
WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Stagnant offense
As a counter to the Packers strong defense, the Packers offense has been somewhat stagnant this year. For all of Rodgers’ efficiency, the Packers rank 22nd in yards per game (333), 20th in yards per play (5.5), 20th in points per game (22.1), 22nd in passing yards per game (223.8), and 18th in rushing yards per game (109.7). The Packers have placed an emphasis on protecting the football and winning the field position game, which has worked so far, but will likely need to do more on offense as the season wears on. - TENNESSEE TITANS (7-2)
1st place, AFC South
Week 4 Ranking: 13
Strength of Schedule: .519 (12th)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 4-1
Best win: Week 9 at Rams, 28-16
Worst loss: Week 4 at Jets, 27-24
Next four games: vs New Orleans (5-3), vs Houston (1-8), at New England (5-4), vs Jacksonville (2-6)
The Titans were a Jekyll and Hyde team early this year, getting blown out by the Cardinals at home in Week 1 and losing to the Jets in Week 4, though they did win at Seattle. In the second quarter of the season, they went a perfect 5-0, including a demolition of the Chiefs and big wins over the Bills and Rams. This is a team that has the resume of a top-two team in the NFL… and in the AFC South, they’re likely a win or two away from clinching the division already. So why are they in seventh place in the Power Rankings? There may not be a more valuable player to a team, certainly for non-quarterbacks, than Derrick Henry is to the Titans. The Titans will need to continue to prove it in the second half of the season to elevate their ranking.
WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Plays big against good teams, play action offense, pass rush, awful division
No team has more wins against above-.500 teams than the Titans and the team, especially the defense, has played a lot better as the season has worn on. They completely shut down the Chiefs in Week 7 and the Rams could only get going in their game once the Titans had already mounted a massive lead. The Titans offense has been a finely tuned machine with Derrick Henry requiring teams to stack the box, opening up the passing game when running play action. For that, QB Ryan Tannehill is a perfect fit. If Adrian Peterson can generate a similar amount of respect from opposing defenses, Tannehill can use play action and target their two top receivers, AJ Brown and Julio Jones
AJ Brown: aside from Derrick Henry, AJ Brown is the team’s most talented skill position player. Brown leads the team with 40 receptions, 551 yards, 3 TDs, and 26 passing first downs. Brown will get considerably more attention from opposing defenses with Henry out of the lineup.
Pressure inside and out with DT Jeffery Simmons and OLB Harold Landry. Aside from Aaron Donald, no interior lineman plays more snaps, or has more of an impact from the middle, than Jeffery Simmons. The former first round pick has 30 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and 7 tackles for loss. Simmons had a monstrous game against the Rams, putting up three sacks and another rush that caused Matthew Stafford to throw a Wentzian interception in the second quarter. Landry has exploded in his fourth season in the league following three years of uneven play, Landry is currently tied for third in the league with 9 sacks and is second on the team with 47 tackles.
God-awful AFC South: One significant advantage for the Titans is the division they play in. Having already swept the Colts, Tennessee has two games against the Texans and one against Jacksonville in the final half of their season. Having two of the five worst teams in the league (if I’m generous) means easy wins for a team of the Titans’ calibre.
WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Over-reliance on Derrick Henry.
Despite missing last week, Derrick Henry still leads all rushers in yards (by 116), TDs (tied with James Conner), and rushing attempts (by 69!). Though he is out for the rest of the season, he should remain in the top 15-20 in each of those categories. Long story short, the Titans have put their eggs in one basket on offense and will need to prove they can win without him. They did just fine against the Rams, though they needed the defense to play big as the offense only contributed 194 yards of total offense. They should do enough to win the division, and will hope that Henry can return in time for the playoffs (a distinct possibility). However, this will be their opportunity to grow the offense in other ways. - BUFFALO BILLS (5-3)
1st place, AFC East
Week 4 Ranking: 2
Strength of Schedule: .377 (32nd)
Record vs. Above .500 teams: 1-2
Best win: Week 5 at Chiefs, 38-20
Worst loss: Week 9 at Jaguars, 9-6
Next four games: at NY Jets (2-6), vs Indianapolis (4-5), at New Orleans (5-3) TNF, vs New England (5-4) MNF
The Buffalo Bills are a tale of two teams: on the good side are the Week 2-5 Bills, which steamrolled its competition, outscoring their competition 156-41, but there is a dark side – the Week 1 loss to the Steelers and the most recent stretch where the Bills look lost on offense. The defense is elite – though its outstanding numbers may be buoyed by the level of competition – and the pass attack can beat anyone when clicking, but what happens when the passing game is neutralized, as it has been on a number of occasions this season?
WHAT’S TO LIKE ABOUT THIS TEAM: Elite defense, strong pass offense
The stats that can be used to state the Bills dominance on defense are vast – they are the best unit in: points allowed per game (14.8, 2.2 fewer than second-best Denver), total yards per game (262.6, 30.5 fewer than second-best Carolina), yards per play (4.5, 0.5 fewer than Carolina), passing yards allowed per game (177), passing touchdowns allowed (5!, 5 fewer than the Chargers), net yards allowed per play (4.9, 0.6 fewer than Carolina and Las Vegas). The Bills are in the top five in most other categories. This can be swayed because they’ve played the Texans, Dolphins twice, and Washington, but this unit is a force to be reckoned with.
The Bills have a strong passing attack, which ranks seventh in yards per game (270), though it has run hot and cold at times.
QB Josh Allen: the Bills QB is putting up another strong season, though not quite at the pace he set last season. Allen ranks eighth in yards per game (279.5), and has a strong 17 TD- 5 INT ratio, and is third in rushing yards by a QB (319).
Wide receiver trio: with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders, the Bills have three dependable wide receivers that can be used in various aspects of the passing game, Stefon Diggs (48 rec, 588 yards, 3 TD) is the all-around star receiver, Sanders (28 rec, 478 yards, 4 TD) is the deep threat, and Cole Beasley (51 rec, 446 yards, 1 TD) is the slot receiver that Josh Allen tends to rely on in third down and short yardage situations. Dawson Knox (21 rec, 286 yards, 5 TD) also emerged as a red zone and short yardage target, and the Bills have looked lost on offense since he went down to injury in Week 6.
WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE: Non-existent run game
Technically, the Bills are 11th in the league in rushing yards per game (119.75), though about 1/3 of those yards belong to Josh Allen. When not using Allen in the run game the Bills have to rely on Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Moss has really struggled this season, putting up only 233 yards on a meager 3.6 yards per carry. Singletary has been better with 355 yards on 4.9 YPC but the Bills do not feel comfortable with either back in pressure situations, as the Bills still rely on short passes in more obvious run situations, such as holding the lead late in games. Miami was able to use that to their advantage for three quarters in Week 8, while the Jacksonville Jaguars – of all teams! – was able to neutralize the Bills as they were able to effectively ignore the Bills run game and put in plays to constantly pressure the quarterback. The Bills will need to get more production from their backs to prevent better teams from doing the same thing in future games.