Following a thrilling 30-29 win by the Washingtons over the Giants, the full slate of NFL games will take place today and tomorrow. There is a mix of huge spreads and closer matchups – I think we’ll all be on the same page when it comes to taking the Texans-Browns, Falcons-Bucs, and Lions-Packers – but a closer look at the schedule shows games to be vary of, specifically the seven games (including six in the 1 pm time slot) that feature home underdogs. Since 2003 (data per teamrankings.com), a home underdog has won 35% of the time. In Week 1, home pooches won 3 of 6 games, and were 4-2 ATS (against the spread).
Another complicating factor is that Week 2 is always a tricky week for bettors – how much stock do we put in the Week 1 results? Take the Bengals-Bears game for instance. The Bengals won a spirited overtime game against the Vikings, while the Bears got blown out on the road against the Rams. The Rams, especially with Matthew Stafford at QB, have the look of a legitimate Super Bowl candidate and made the Bears look awful – it can be agreed that the Bears are at least a tier below the Rams. The Bengals had low expectations going in, and while there are legitimate areas of concern, they looked stronger against the Vikings… though there may be some questions about Minnesota. The spread is Chicago -1.5, which is down from -3 at open. If you take into consideration that home team generally get -2.5 just for being at home, the insinuation is that Cincinnati is the better team. Is that based on Week 1 results, or is that real?
Here are the games for Sunday and Monday, with the Predictor’s picks:
| Time | Away | Home | Line | Predictor |
| 1:00 | New England | NY Jets | 6 | New England |
| 1:00 | Denver | Jacksonville | 6 | Jacksonville |
| 1:00 | Buffalo | Miami | 3.5 | Miami |
| 1:00 | San Francisco | Philadelphia | 3 | Philadelphia |
| 1:00 | LA Rams | Indianapolis | 3.5 | LA Rams |
| 1:00 | Las Vegas | Pittsburgh | -6 | Pittsburgh |
| 1:00 | Cincinnati | Chicago | -1.5 | Chicago +1 |
| 1:00 | Houston | Cleveland | -13.5 | Cleveland +1 |
| 1:00 | New Orleans | Carolina | 3 | Carolina |
| 4:05 | Minnesota | Arizona | -3.5 | Arizona |
| 4:05 | Atlanta | Tampa Bay | -13 | Tampa Bay +1 |
| 4:25 | Tennessee | Seattle | -6.5 | Seattle |
| 4:25 | Dallas | LA Chargers | -3 | LA Chargers |
| 8:20 | Kansas City | Baltimore | 3.5 | Kansas City |
| 8:20 | Detroit | Green Bay | -11.5 | Green Bay +1 |
For those who may be interested, here are the Predictor’s picks for ALL games this season in grid format. The numbers in each matchup denote the week in which that game will be played. Green means the home team (top row) will win and red means the road team (first column) will win. The games with boxes around them are confidence picks. Some of this is already outdated but a fun exercise when predicting who will be successful in the season.
