Month: September 2021

In a wild week of NFL action we saw one of the more unbelievable sequences in league history. With the Ravens down 17-16 to the lowly, but scrappy, Lions, Lamar Jackson and the offense faced a 4th and 19 from their own 16 with 26 seconds left. On that play, Jackson threaded the needle on a 36 yard completion to Sammy Watkins, to bring them just to the other side of midfield. Following a spike to stop the clock, it appears that the Ravens were at least two seconds late in snapping the ball on 2nd and 10 but were not penalized. After that unsuccessful play, the Ravens send out of one the best and most accurate kickers of all time, Justin Tucker to attempt a 66 yard field goal. Earlier that same day, Cardinals K Matt Prater attempted a 68 yard field goal that was about 2-3 yards short… and returned for an almost as improbable 109 yard return by Jaguars return man Jamal Agnew (I think PxP man Gus Johnson had a heart attack somewhere in that return).

On this kick though, Tucker lined up, did a crow hop, then booted a near perfect kick that hit the crossbar and bounced over for the longest kick in NFL history, breaking the previous record of 64 by… Matt Prater, and breaking the hearts of Lions fans in the process.

This kick somewhat overshadowed another big development in the league: the Chiefs are now a sub-.500 team for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, after losing 30-24 to a very tough Chargers team. This game featured a Mahomes INT with under 2 minutes left and a game winning drive by the Chargers and their QB Justin Herbert. It’s too soon to say the balance of power is shifting in the AFC West, but with the Raiders and Broncos undefeated, and the Chargers at 2-1, this division will be competing with the NFC West for best division in the league.

Meanwhile the race is on in the opposite direction in the AFC South, NFC East, and NFC North to determine the worst team: the AFC South has taken the lead with two winless teams (Indianapolis and Jacksonville), a horrible 1-2 Houston Texans and the (admittedly good) Tennessee Titans.

APY POOL STANDINGS
In Week 3, Salvo was the top scorer with 17 points. Salvo’s lack of faith in the Giants paid off as a confidence pick on the Falcons helped propel him to the top score of the week. Salvo is now in second place with 43 points.

At the top of the leaderboard though is Gary with 45 points. Gary maintains the two point lead he had this week with a 14 point effort. Jerome sits in third place at 42 points, while Sam, Paul, and Will are all tied in fourth place with 41 points.

Name	Total	W3
Gary	45	14
Salvo	43	17
Jerome	42	15
Sam	41	16
Paul	41	13
Will	41	12
Baldip	40	12
Justin	39	15
Jason H	39	14
Adam	39	14
Ronda	39	14
Donna P	39	14
Alessandro	39	14
Farhan	39	11
Neil	38	15
Keville	38	14
Lourdes	38	14
Donna K	38	13
CSA Red Bulls	37	14
Darryl	37	14
Team Bracken	37	12
Jason G	37	11
Courtney	36	16
Darren	36	15
Denzil	36	13
Jason R	36	13
Joe L	36	13
Molly	36	12
Joe S	35	15
Marcus	35	13
Tom	35	12
Predictor	34	14
Terry	34	13
Jay P	34	12
Marcel & Aiden	33	13
Quinn	33	12
Steve	32	12
Nigel	32	10
Matt	31	11
Mark	31	10
David	30	7
Des	29	3
Dwayne	20	0
Ruby	19	1
Average	36.28	12.58

WEEK 4 SCHEDULE
Week 4 features a number of games with intrigue, the most intriguing of which of course being the primetime game between the Jaguars and Bengals. OK, OK, I suppose the return of Tom Brady to Foxborough will also be a big game. To add to it, Brady is just 68 yards from breaking the all-time yards record presently held by Drew Brees.

SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles will host two big games this weekend as well, with the battle of NFC West unbeatens on Sunday – Cardinals at Rams – and an AFC West showdown between the 3-0 Raiders and 2-1 Chargers.

Panthers 24, Texans 9

Christian McCaffrey pulled up on a run in the second quarter and left the game due to a hamstring injury. While fans and fantasy owners alike held their collective breaths, it does appear that the injury was minor. His timetable for return is not yet known, but his time out should be relatively short.

The Panthers defense looks strong through three weeks, though in all fairness, they’ve faced two rookie QBs in three weeks – though if we are being fair, they also shut down a Saints offense that has looked really strong otherwise. The Panthers blitzed QB Davis Mills on nearly 40% of their snaps, forcing the rookie to make quick decisions.

The joys of leaving the Jets: Sam Darnold looks a lot more like a first round pick than he ever did in East Rutherford. He’s built a really strong rapport with WR DJ Moore and has his second 300+ yard passing day of the season – he had four in three seasons with the Jets. He does still have issues with protecting the football – he was strip-sacked twice on Thursday, and has now dropped the football four times in three games. Interestingly, Darnold is tied for the league lead in rushing TDs (three).

Davis Mills was thrust into an impossible situation – the rookie made his debut on a short week against a strong defense. He was overmatched most of the night and looked it, though in all fairness, as a rookie he is not along in that regard. Mills does appear to be a capable thrower and, owing to his Stanford education, there are no concerns about him not being able to adapt, but the game was really fast for him. He seemed to improve a bit in the two minute drill in the first half and as the game progressed, but it is going to take time for him to adapt.

Mills definitely trusts WR Brandin Cooks, who went 9/112. This is no surprise as Cooks is, by some measure, their steadiest and best pass catcher, though when teams see you have eyes for a particular receiver, they’ll do what they can to stop that connection.

Chargers 30, Chiefs 24

The Chargers defense is good, really good. S Derwin James is a difference-maker in the secondary and his ability to cover tight ends was a key to this matchup (and most of Kelce’s production occurred when James got hurt and then when the Chiefs tried to move him away from James in coverage). While not appearing as much on the stat sheet, Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery had good days – each of them seemed to be in the Chiefs backfield for much of the game – and Patrick Mahomes appeared rattled by the pressure at times.

The Chiefs offense did not look up to their admittedly remarkably high standard for most of this game. Patrick Mahomes made a handful of uncharacteristic mistakes, including a pick on a no-look pass (looks great when it works but when it doesn’t…) and another one just after the two-minute warning with the game on the line. Whether it is a product of poor offensive line play or just needing time to jell, there appear to be some issues in Kansas City for the first time since Mahomes took over as QB.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a good day running the football – 17 carries, 100 rushing yards, and a receiving TD – but he lost another fumble in this game in the first half.

Cowboys 41, Eagles 21

The Cowboys could do no wrong in this beatdown of the Eagles. The Eagles made a concerted effort to prevent the deep pass in this game, but the Cowboys were content to run the football, running the ball 41 times for 160 yards (Ezekiel Elliott ran for 95 yards and 2 TDs, while Tony Pollard had 60 yards of his own). On the other end, the Cowboys were able to focus on the short and intermediate passing game of the Eagles and effectively shut them down, as the Eagles were too one-dimensional to force the issue.

This may be an overreaction, but in watching this game, Jalen Hurts’ lack of arm strength is really going to limit him at this level. The lack of arm strength was evident on his first interception in the first quarter, where he badly underthrew WR Jalen Reagor on a post pattern. The Eagles ran the ball with their running backs a total of three times in this game (and 12 in total, counting Hurts’ scrambles and RPO keepers). The number was at least partially due to game circumstances – the Cowboys were up 20-7 in the first half and pulled away as the game went on – but with a QB with arm strength limitations, it does not make sense to abandon the run so easily. The Cowboys did not have to respect the deep pass or the run and controlled the tempo of the game.

Much as the WFT defense was the only real strong point of any unit in the NFC East, the same can be said about the Cowboys’ offense this year. The Washington defense has looked subpar this year, while the Giants and Eagles don’t really impress on either side of the ball. The question will be whether the Cowboys can take advantage of a softer schedule and do enough on defense to be a true competitor in the NFC.

Another exciting day of NFL action is ahead of us, with the big game of the day taking place at Sofi Stadium as the Rams host the defending champs.

Here are the games and betting lines for each games, along with the Predictor’s picks. Good luck everyone!

Time	Home		Line	Predictor
1:00	LA Chargers	Kansas City	-7	Kansas City
1:00	Arizona	Jacksonville	7.5	Arizona +1
1:00	Chicago	Cleveland	-7.5	Cleveland
1:00	Washington	Buffalo	-7	Buffalo
1:00	Indianapolis	Tennessee	-5	Tennessee
1:00	New Orleans	New England	-2.5	New Orleans
1:00	Atlanta	NY Giants	-2.5	NY Giants
1:00	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	-2.5	Pittsburgh +1
1:00	Baltimore	Detroit	7.5	Baltimore +1
4:05	NY Jets	Denver	-10	Denver +1
4:05	Miami	Las Vegas	-3.5	Las Vegas
4:25	Tampa Bay	LA Rams	1	LA Rams
4:25	Seattle	Minnesota	2	Seattle
8:20	Green Bay	San Francisco	-3	Green Bay
8:20	Philadelphia	Dallas	-3.5	Dallas

Line as at 10 am ET Thursday Morning: Panthers -8

Picks:
Predictor: Panthers
Matt: Panthers +1

The 2-0 Carolina Panthers take their act on the road, going to NRG Stadium to face the 1-1 Houston Texans. The Panthers come off an impressive win against the Saints, which followed the Sam Darnold revenge game against the Jets. The Panthers defense has looked dominant the first two weeks of the season, and held the Saints to 128 total yards in Week 2. The team will be without pass rushing specialist Yetur Gross-Matos and reserve G Pat Elflein.

The Texans come back home after losing the game in Cleveland, but it got worse for Houston as they lost their starting QB Tyrod Taylor to a thigh injury that has since landed him on the IR. Third round draft pick QB Davis Mills from Stanford steps in to the main spot in Houston, as the estranged Deshaun Watson continues to live in limbo following the sexual misconduct allegations against him. Mills’ backup for this game is expected to be former Broncos QB Jeff Driskel. The team will also be without WRs Danny Amendola and rookie Nico Collins, along with CB Terrance Mitchell.

The question on this pick boils down to: Do you trust a rookie QB making his first career start in a short week or (an admittedly improved) Sam Darnold on the road?

WFT 30, NYG 29

Admittedly, I was of those that were rolling their eyes at another NFC East snoozefest between two teams with strong defenses and subpar offenses, however this game offered some fireworks, as the Giants and WFT offenses were able to get what they wanted for much of this game.

Giants QB Daniel Jones went 22-32 for 249 yards, ran nine times for 95 yards, and scored once in the air and once with his legs. His 46 yard scramble did not result in a touchdown, but at least it ended more smoothly than his previous Thursday night scramble.

Saquon Barkley is not back to 100% yet. He had 13 carries for 57 yards, but 41 of those yards came on one run in the first quarter. Barkley was on a pitch count and the expectation is that he’ll do more as the season wears on.

Taylor Heinicke played really well in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick, putting up a 34-46, 336, 2 TD/1 INT line and especially showed a strong rapport with WR Terry McLaurin, who had 11 (!) catches for 107 yards and a TD. McLaurin was matched up with the Giants best corner James Bradberry for most of the night and continued his success against the otherwise strong CB.

RB JD McKissic had 5 catches for 83 yards and rushed for a TD, and this may be an example of a different QB meaning opportunities for certain players, as McKissic appeared in 36% of the snaps in week 1 but was not targeted.

The game was decided on a 43 yard FG by Dustin Hopkins, who was granted a reprieve on a missed FG from 48 yards when Dexter Lawrence went offside

BRONCOS 23, JAGUARS 13

The Broncos continued their strong start by dominating the Jaguars in a game that wasn’t remotely as close as the score would have you believe. The Jaguars drove for a touchdown on their first drive, but the offense did not score again as Vic Fangio’s defense completely befuddled Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. Fangio has been tough on rookie QBs in the past, as his defenses are known for either changing post-snap or showing false formations, which is something that doesn’t happen often in college.

WR Courtland Sutton had a monster game, with 9 catches for 159 yards, accounting for nearly half of Teddy Bridgewater’s passing yards. Sutton was feasting in the soft underbelly of the Jaguars zone defense for much of this game.

Trevor Lawrence was only sacked once, but it is evident that the NFL game is a little too fast right now for the acclaimed college QB from Clemson. On the first drive, Lawrence started strong, going 5 for 7 for 73 yards and the TD pass to Marvin Jones. After that, the first overall pick went a putrid 9/26 for 45 yards and 2 INTs. The Broncos coverages and pass rushing schemes were confusing to the rookie and he had no answer as the game progressed. The offensive line did him no favours but this may be a sign of things to come for the early part of the season as Lawrence learns on the job

RAMS 27, COLTS 24

This game was a playoff level matchup between one of the favourites in the NFC against a team with the potential to cause trouble in the AFC. The back and forth game was decided with 2:23 left in the fourth when Matt Gay gave the Rams a lead they would not relinquish. Late in the fourth, Carson Wentz went down with an injury and was not able to return

With all due respect to Jared Goff, the Rams offense is a different animal with Matthew Stafford at the controls, as he has the ability to stretch defenses in a way that Goff was unable to in years previous. Stafford’s line was decent if not spectacular in Week 2 but he has full command of the offense and Cooper Kupp has quickly become his favourite receiver. Kupp went 9-163-2TDs this week and is now 11 yards off the lead for receiving yards in the league after two weeks.

Carson Wentz spent much of this game running for his life, until he suffered ankle sprains to each leg on a rough, but perfectly legal, rollover tackle by Aaron Donald late in the fourth quarter. While the focus has been on the offensive line, life made more difficult by the opposing pass rushes of Seattle and the Rams in the first two weeks, Wentz holds onto the ball as much as almost anyone, with an average time to throw of 2.91 seconds (6th longest of the starting QBs, per nextgenstats. Holding onto the football to make plays is commendable but significantly increases the risk as it puts more pressure on the line, and you don’t want to give Aaron Donald another half-second to get to you.

Michael Pittman had a big day of his own, going 8 for 123. Pittman is a tough physical receiver who matched up well with the Rams secondary and appeared to thrive in this matchup. Wentz’s status is up in the air, though if Wentz is not able to go for the next number of games, or is hobbled by his ankle injuries, we may see some impact to Pittman’s stats.

RAVENS 36, CHIEFS 35

In what had the look and feel of an AFC Championship Game preview, the Chiefs offense looked nearly unstoppable for the first three quarters. After the Chiefs scored to push their lead to 35-24 with 6:50 to go in the third quarter, the Ravens looked to be outmatched by the Chiefs once again. However, the Ravens stuck to what brought them – rushing and a stout defense – to rally back and, with two fourth quarter rushing TDs by Lamar Jackson, a fortunate fumble by Clyde Edwards-Helaire inside 2 minutes left, and an extremely gutsy call to go for it on 4th-and-1 from their own 43, the Ravens were able to exorcize this demon, at least for one night.

Tyreek Hill was held under wraps by the Ravens for most of the game – he caught only 3 passes for 14 yards – as the Ravens defense was designed not to allow him to beat them on deep passes. The problem is that if you focus on Hill, you can’t focus your attention on Travis Kelce. Kelce had a huge game, 7 catches for 109 yards and a winding and powerful 46 yard pass and run (mostly run) TD that looked more like 100 yards as he went sideline to sideline after catching the ball near the 45 yard line.

The first Ravens drive was one to forget, as Lamar Jackson threw a pick-six to Tyrann Mathieu on the third play of the game. Mathieu appeared to have a bead on Jackson all night, as he picked off another pass and nearly came away with another before the first half was over. Jackson was able to build on his success passing to Hollywood Brown, with the two linking up for 6 catches and 113 yards, and a TD. Brown has been great to start the season, already hauling in 12 catches in two games and perhaps is developing into the top receiver the Ravens had hoped for when taking him in the first round out of Oklahoma in 2019. The third year breakout for WR is a well-studied phenomenon and appears to be the case here (also see Deebo Samuel, who leads the league in receiving yards after two weeks).

RB Ty’Son Williams appears to be separating himself from the pack of Ravens running backs – Lamar Jackson had 16 carries for 107 yards, but Williams had a decent game running the football in his own right, with 13 carries for 77 yards. His first quarter fumble in the first half was almost calamitous for Williams, though fortunately for him and the Ravens, the ball landed in the waiting hands of Devin Duvernay, who caught the ball and crashed into the end zone to give the Ravens their first points of the night.

Name	Total	1	2
Gary	31	15	16
Will	29	13	16
Baldip	28	11	17
Farhan	28	13	15
Paul	28	13	15
Jerome	27	11	16
Des	26	12	14
Jason G	26	13	13
Salvo	26	15	11
Adam	25	9	16
Jason H	25	10	15
Ronda	25	10	15
Donna P	25	10	15
Sam	25	11	14
Team Bracken	25	11	14
Donna K	25	11	14
Alessandro	25	12	13
Keville	24	8	16
Lourdes	24	12	12
Justin	24	12	12
Molly	24	13	11
Neil	23	6	17
Tom	23	9	14
CSA Red Bulls	23	10	13
Jason R	23	10	13
David	23	10	13
Darryl	23	11	12
Joe L	23	11	12
Denzil	23	11	12
Jay P	22	6	16
Marcus	22	9	13
Nigel	22	12	10
Terry	21	8	13
Darren	21	10	11
Quinn	21	10	11
Mark	21	14	7
Courtney	20	7	13
Marcel & Aiden	20	7	13
Predictor	20	7	13
Dwayne	20	8	12
Matt	20	8	12
Steve	20	9	11
Joe S	20	9	11
Ruby	18	8	10
Average	23.70	10.40	13.30

Congrats to Baldip and Neil, you were the top scorers this week, putting up 17 of a possible 20 points each in Week 2! Baldip is now in a tie for third, while Neil has moved from the basement to the middle of the pack.

Newcomer Gary continues to occupy the top spot in the rankings, now two points ahead of second place, which is occupied by Will at 29. Following Will is a three-person logjam in third place, shared by Baldip, Farhan, and Paul.

More to come with a full week recap later today.

Week 3 material also to be created for today/tomorrow.

Following a thrilling 30-29 win by the Washingtons over the Giants, the full slate of NFL games will take place today and tomorrow. There is a mix of huge spreads and closer matchups – I think we’ll all be on the same page when it comes to taking the Texans-Browns, Falcons-Bucs, and Lions-Packers – but a closer look at the schedule shows games to be vary of, specifically the seven games (including six in the 1 pm time slot) that feature home underdogs. Since 2003 (data per teamrankings.com), a home underdog has won 35% of the time. In Week 1, home pooches won 3 of 6 games, and were 4-2 ATS (against the spread).

Another complicating factor is that Week 2 is always a tricky week for bettors – how much stock do we put in the Week 1 results? Take the Bengals-Bears game for instance. The Bengals won a spirited overtime game against the Vikings, while the Bears got blown out on the road against the Rams. The Rams, especially with Matthew Stafford at QB, have the look of a legitimate Super Bowl candidate and made the Bears look awful – it can be agreed that the Bears are at least a tier below the Rams. The Bengals had low expectations going in, and while there are legitimate areas of concern, they looked stronger against the Vikings… though there may be some questions about Minnesota. The spread is Chicago -1.5, which is down from -3 at open. If you take into consideration that home team generally get -2.5 just for being at home, the insinuation is that Cincinnati is the better team. Is that based on Week 1 results, or is that real?

Here are the games for Sunday and Monday, with the Predictor’s picks:

Time	Away	Home	Line	Predictor
1:00	New England	NY Jets	6	New England
1:00	Denver	Jacksonville	6	Jacksonville
1:00	Buffalo	Miami	3.5	Miami
1:00	San Francisco	Philadelphia	3	Philadelphia
1:00	LA Rams	Indianapolis	3.5	LA Rams
1:00	Las Vegas	Pittsburgh	-6	Pittsburgh
1:00	Cincinnati	Chicago	-1.5	Chicago +1
1:00	Houston	Cleveland	-13.5	Cleveland +1
1:00	New Orleans	Carolina	3	Carolina
4:05	Minnesota	Arizona	-3.5	Arizona
4:05	Atlanta	Tampa Bay	-13	Tampa Bay +1
4:25	Tennessee	Seattle	-6.5	Seattle
4:25	Dallas	LA Chargers	-3	LA Chargers
8:20	Kansas City	Baltimore	3.5	Kansas City
8:20	Detroit	Green Bay	-11.5	Green Bay +1

For those who may be interested, here are the Predictor’s picks for ALL games this season in grid format. The numbers in each matchup denote the week in which that game will be played. Green means the home team (top row) will win and red means the road team (first column) will win. The games with boxes around them are confidence picks. Some of this is already outdated but a fun exercise when predicting who will be successful in the season.

It’s Thursday, so you know what this means: the second week gets started with a game between NFC East teams NY Giants and the Washington Football Team. This is a matchup between two teams with potentially decent defenses, but struggling offenses.

WFT is a 3.5 point favourite, despite losing QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley is unlikely to get full reps in this one as they ease him back in after tearing his ACL last season.

The Giants were defeated by the Broncos 27-13 at home last week.
Washington lost in the final seconds to the LA Chargers by a score of 20-16

WFT is the pick for both the Predictor and Matt. No confidence for either one.

How much stock should we put in the results of the first week of the season? At a glance, 1 game of 17 is sufficiently important, certainly much more than in the other major sports, and especially baseball, where the first game is 1 of 162. As always, context is important: is there something we can take away from these games that we can use later? We do this, to an extent, with the preseason and can get lost in the weeds, or put too much emphasis on the result and not enough on the underlying issues. I’m sure the Packers won’t be as awful as they looked in Week 1, but Atlanta probably is. The Eagles were expected to be a poor team this year but eviscerated the Falcons in Atlanta 32-6. In an already strong NFC West, Arizona looked like an emerging giant in week one, crushing Tennessee 38-13, aided by FIVE sacks from Chandler Jones. Jones made three-time Pro Bowl LT Taylor Lewan look like a high schooler and Kyler Murray carved up the weak Titans secondary, throwing 4 TD passes (and rushing for another). Seattle won their first game with relative ease in Indianapolis, by a score of 28-16. Russell Wilson went 18-23, 254 yards, and 4 TDs. The Steelers went into Orchard Park and slugged out a 23-16 win. The Steelers came back from a 10-0 halftime deficit, including a blocked punt which was returned for a TD. The Chiefs edged the Browns 33-29 in a tense affair at Arrowhead, the Browns led most of the game until a muffed snap on a punt attempt in the fourth quarter gave the Chiefs excellent field, to which they capitalized for the game winning TD.

Rookie QBs: the rookie QBs had a rough week 1, going a combined 0-3.
Trevor Lawrence – the new QB of the Jacksonville Jaguars had never lost a regular season game in high school or college, but is now 0-1 as a starting QB. He had an uneven first start in Houston, going 28-for-51, 332 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs. Lawrence showed positive traits in the game, he is an accurate passer and can make quick decisions under pressure, but the pressure was a constant in this game and mistakes were made. The Jags have a thin roster and Lawrence can expect similar results from more accomplished defenses as the season wears on. Von Miller (and perhaps Bradley Chubb) awaits in Week 2.
Zach Wilson – the second overall selection from BYU had a rough first week in Carolina, going 20-37, 251 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Wilson had a really rough first half but got a little more settled in the second half. The offensive line had a horrible game in front of him, as Wilson was sacked six times.
Mac Jones – the 15th pick in the draft had a decent, if unspectacular week, going 29-39 with 281 yards, 1 TD. Jones was taking what the Dolphins defense gave him, mostly going the safe route in the short and intermediate passing game. Unlike Lawrence and Wilson, Jones has a functional offensive line in front of him, and was only sacked once.
Wilson and Jones will face off in New Jersey this coming weekend.
Trey Lance and Justin Fields were both used in subpackages in Week 1, and both players found the end zone, Lance on a five-yard TD pass to WR Trent Sherfield, and Fields on a three-yard read option keeper.

Another feature of the blog will be a deeper dive into games I’m watching over the course of the season. I was really only able to focus on the primetime games, so my takeaways are:

BUCCANEERS 31, COWBOYS 29

Dak Prescott looked really good out there and reconnected with Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Like he didn’t miss any time at all. As in 2020, Lamb is a matchup problem in the slot – he could be a #1 receiver in many offenses.

Ezekiel Elliott had a rough night (yardage), though it appeared that the Cowboys were quick to stop running the football, as they were playing catchup most of the night. Abandoning the run is not uncommon in the NFL, though it is worth monitoring what happens with Zeke, as the Cowboys defense is bad enough that they could be playing from behind for much of the season – the challenge will be how to utilize one of their best (and most expensive) players.

Cowboys defense looked poor, though not sure if that was a systemic issue or a Brady issue. Brady has made a career of carving up defenses/finding soft spots in zone coverages

Gronk appears to be fully back to his Patriots form. Gronk was not bad last season but took him a while to get his legs under him. This year, he trained all offseason and had a full training camp and it appears to be making a difference

Vita Vea was a disruptive presence in the middle of the Bucs defensive line – at least part of the reason why the Cowboys stopped running the football. When single-teamed, Vea was routinely pushing linemen into the backfield.

Buccaneers secondary looked vulnerable – an the elbow dislocation suffered by Sean Murphy-Bunting won’t help. Cowboys were targeting Jamel Dean, who is a decent CB, but overmatched against Cooper.

Greg Zeurlein had a bad three minute stretch, missed a chipshot, then a PAT, but he did come up big when called upon late.

RAMS 34, BEARS 14

Rams were in full control of this game on both sides of the ball.

Calls will go out for Justin Fields to take over as starting QB, Andy Dalton didn’t look great and is very limited in the passing game. The Rams were able to collapse coverages to cover the short and intermediate part of the field. Some issues with the Bears seem more systemic, though it is unfair to pin too much of this on the Bears offensive line. They played better than expected but the bar wasn’t high.

Fields did look very impressive in his limited snaps – looks like he’ll get some action in zone read plays – leads one to wonder if the Bears are giving him bite-sized pieces of the offense to get him acclimatized gradually. Not a bad idea, but pressure will be on if they continue to struggle – this team made the playoffs with Mitch Trubisky under centre, so expectations are up (and Nagy has to be on the hot seat).

Matthew Stafford looked good and in full command of the offense. McVay runs a variant of the West Coast offense and the personnel isn’t really built to stretch the field, but Stafford can make all the throws when needed, and did so on Sunday, with 2 50+ yard TD passes to Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson.

Darrell Henderson was the primary ball carrier and looked decent, though perhaps not a game-breaker. Sony Michel was a minimal part of the offense in Week 1.

The Rams offensive line dictated the play, and Khalil Mack was a ghost most of the game.

LB Justin Hollins had a big game for the Rams as he getting in the Bears backfield most of the night – he sacked Dalton twice and had 8 tackles in total.

Rams put Jalen Ramsey all over the secondary – even in the slot and as a sort of safety at times – to get him more involved in the run game. Ramsey seems to be more engaged when he can get physically involved

RAIDERS 33, RAVENS 27 (OT)

One of the wilder games of Week 1, the Ravens looked to be on their way to a blowout victory early – Lamar Jackson was exploiting the holes in the Raiders Cover 3 defense, Ty’Son Williams broke off a 35 yard TD run on a 4th and 1, and, on defense, the Ravens were putting the pressure on Derek Carr and forcing him to improvise.

Derek Carr has goo-goo eyes for Darren Waller – the game-changing TE was targeted 19 times by the veteran QB, 4 more targets than any other receiver in the NFL in Week 1 (Tyreek Hill had 15). Waller is a matchup problem for any team, but especially when Carr was under siege in the first half, it was very apparent that Carr was looking for him. As other receivers got more involved in the offense, the team was much more efficient.

Aside from Waller, Carr appears to have a rapport with WR Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe is a smallish slot receiver who gets by on shiftiness and positioning. WR Bryan Edwards was quiet for most of the game, but made two big catches in the Raiders final drive in regulation, then made a big time catch near the goal line on a 50-50 heave from Carr in overtime. It appeared that the Raiders were making an effort to make WR Henry Ruggs a more significant part of the offense, but he was quiet in week 1, aside from a big 37 yard reception on a 3rd and 10 in the Raiders’ 4th quarter TD drive.

When given time, Lamar Jackson was carving up the Raiders secondary in the first half. The Raiders seemed content to play soft early on and Jackson was able to find his receivers, Sammy Watkins and Marquise Brown, underneath the coverage. On his TD pass in the first half, Jackson was able to scramble to evade the pressure and find Brown at the back of the end zone on a really nice throw. The second half and OT proved more difficult as the Raiders started to mount more pressure and get to Jackson more often, forcing two fumbles. Those two fumbles were in Baltimore territory – one in the fourth and one in OT – and both led to Raiders TDs.

The Ravens had a tumultuous preseason, where three of their four running backs suffered season ending injuries (JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards tore their ACLs, while Justice Hill suffered a ruptured Achilles), leaving them to sign every available running back who was out of job. Le’Veon Bell and Davonta Freeman were both inactive but former Saints RB Latavius Murray was in the game and split reps with Ty’Son Williams. Williams had a decent game – 9 rushes for 65 yards and a TD – but was used sparingly when the game tightened in the fourth quarter and OT. In OT, Williams matadored Raiders pass rusher Carl Nassib, allowing Nassib free passage to Lamar Jackson, resulting in the strip-sack that the Raiders recovered and later converted in the game-winning TD. Murray is a much more dependable RB in pass protection and in high-pressure situations. When Bell gets to know the offense better, he may take those snaps and rushes away from Williams, though at this stage of his career, there is a question as to whether Le’Veon Bell is trading on his name. Freeman is essentially done – when not injured with the Giants last season, he was significantly less useful than Wayne Gallman.

The Raiders pass rush looked strong in the second half and OT, especially pass rusher Maxx Crosby. Crosby had two sacks and routinely got the best of RT Alejandro Villanueva.