ALL PURPOSE YARDS

Fortune Favours The Brave… Until It Doesn’t

When enjoying a couple (or about 10) cold beverages with a friend, the friend (who is very much in this pool) asked for advice on who to take in his Survivor pool. I’m sure most of you at least notionally know of these pools, so won’t belabour that point. He was contemplating taking the Niners as his pick for this week which (of course) makes all the sense in the world: the Niners were 10.5 point favourites at kickoff and the Giants team they were facing was a) not very good, b) missing their best player (Saquon Barkley), and c) coming off an emotional come-from-behind win over an also not-so-good team (Arizona). The fact that this game was on Thursday was also a contributing factor – the early-week game making it difficult for the underdog to scheme up the tricks and gadgets needed to pull the game out.
However, picking the Niners means you don’t get to pick them again, and Week 3 appeared to be teeming with favourable picks: Kansas City, Baltimore, Dallas, and Jacksonville were all favoured by a touchdown or more, generally a good starting point for a Survivor bet (In hindsight: Uh oh). Baltimore had already been taken, Dallas was a no go for personal reasons, which left the Chiefs and Jags. The Bears were going to provide little resistance to the Chiefs, though you might want to pick the Chiefs again later. The Jaguars, not as much – while a playoff team, the Jaguars are a tier below the other contenders and likely not a high-faith matchup for many other games. The Texans, though, looked bad to that point with a spirited but decisive loss to the Ravens in Week 1 and a not as spirited but equally decisive loss to Indianapolis in Week 2. My suggestion was to take all those factors into consideration and take the Jags, which he did. What I did not tell him (because I didn’t know until I heard it during the fourth quarter of this game), was that the Texans had won 20 of the last 25 games in the series between the two teams, including 9 of the last 10. You know the rest: the Texans had everything go right in their blowout 37-17 win. 

APY POOL RESULTS
As mentioned above, the Jags, Ravens, and Cowboys were all touchdown or more favourites this weekend, which not only hurt Survivor pool contestants, but also pools scores. The league averaged 11 points, which is a not great but not awful showing, though the highest score in the pool was 14 of a possible 20 points. 

The 14 point marker was achieved by Donna P (shocker!), Jason R, Lourdes, and Adam. Congrats to each of you!

In the overall standings, Donna P moves back into top position, in a tie with Tom (who got 13 points of his own!). In third place sits Neil (39 points), and Donna K is in fourth place at 38. Basically if your name is Donna, and you’re in this pool, you’re killing it! David and Darren are tied for fifth with 37 points

APY POOL STANDINGS

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Week 3 was full of interesting coaching decisions and the fallout of those calls. There are basically three types of calls chronicled here: calls where coaches took a risk and it paid off, calls where the coach took a risk, it failed, but they won anyways, and situations where the coaches went risk averse, the situation went well, but the end result was a loss. First, a gutsy call by Matt LaFleur at Lambeau

Packers Author Incredible Fourth Quarter Comeback

They’re gutsy if they work and dumb if they don’t. When to go for two has been questioned since the two-point conversion was instituted in 1994, though conventional wisdom has shifted somewhat when it comes to going for two when down by 8 points post-TD late in the game. Until 2017, teams almost always went for 1 when down 8, to bring the deficit to 7, to open up the possibility of getting the late TD and sending the game to OT. The thinking has shifted in recent years, in line with this chart:

The Packers were faced with a 17-0 deficit in the fourth quarter of their game against the Saints this weekend. Following a field goal to make the score 17-3 with 11:00 left, the Packers were able to force a punt and follow that with a quick touchdown with 6:58 remaining to bring the score to 17-9. Packers coach Matt LaFleur went for two, which was successful, to make the score 17-11. This is the advantage of going for two – now if the Packers score another touchdown, they just need the extra point kick to win it (and can still go to OT if they miss). That’s just what Green Bay did as they forced a quick three-and-out and once again marched down the field for a touchdown with 2:58 left. With the made extra point, the Packers were now in the lead at 18-17. The Saints were actually able to march back down the field to set up a game winning field goal, but Blake Grupe missed a 46 yard field goal to give the Packers the victory. LaFleur has been burned by going safe in the past, so perhaps this is a matter of learning your lesson as you move on.

Like LaFleur in 2021, Josh McDaniels Takes Some Points When More Are Needed
And perhaps one Raiders coach Josh McDaniels would’ve been wise to learn himself. With the Raiders trailing the Steelers 23-15 late in the fourth quarter, McDaniels opted to take the points not once, but twice in the late-game drive. The first attempt was on a 4th and 6 from the 30 with 3:11 left. That attempt was good, but was nullified by a Steelers penalty for leverage (Steelers player used a Raider for leverage to help his jump to try to block the kick). Then, with 2:25 left on a 4th and 4 from the Steelers 8 yard line, they attempted yet another kick, which was successful. The Raiders were able to subsequently get the ball back, but with only :12 remaining, and an interception on the first play ended their chances before it really got started.
There’s actually reason to believe the Raiders would’ve been better off declining the leverage penalty and taking the points then, than to proceed and kick the FG later on. All else being equal, the Steelers would’ve needed to run at least one more play before the 2:00 warning and if the circumstances were the same in the Steelers’ drive, the Raiders would’ve had an additional 50-60 seconds with which to work with. Alas, that is not how it all worked out. Coaches are generally very risk averse, and will bank on their defense doing their job more often than not. Which makes things all the more interesting and/or confusing when a coach very openly takes risks.

0-2 Teams Play Hot Potato with a Game
In the last two minutes, the Chargers and Vikings participated in a game of Hot Potato, with the last person holding the ball getting the win. Of course, two 0-2 teams have their reasons for being 0-2, and while the game was entertaining, there are significant issues for each team to address. 

First to the Chargers. The Chargers were faced with a 4th-and-1 on their own 24 yard line with a 28-24 lead, on the good side of the two-minute warning (for them) and the Vikings were all out of timeouts. Given these factors, and Brandon Staley’s penchant for risk-taking, the Chargers decided to go for it – a first down guaranteed a win as the Chargers would go into victory formation with the Vikings unable to further stop the clock. A stop meant the Vikings would have good field position needing a TD to win. Justin Herbert handed the ball off to Joshua Kelley (who was lined up as a fullback), only for Kelley to get stuffed by the Vikings defense.

It should be noted, the quants are on Staley’s side here:

With an estimated 73% chance of success and a 100% chance to win if successful, you can understand the logic, if not the process*. The process, though, was questionable at best. The Chargers had run the ball 14 times for 30 yards in the game prior to this play, but had passed the ball 48 times for 445 yards (on 41 completions). The decision to take the ball out of the hands of their best player and into the hands of an underperforming second-string RB deserves a significant amount of scrutiny but, fortunately for the Chargers, the Vikings were unable to cash in. 

With :41 left, the Vikings had a 4th and 4, which they converted with :35 on the clock. The Vikings sounded their first down horn and the fans went crazy; for the players on the field, this was a bad thing, as Kirk Cousins was unable to hear the play call while time ticked down. So Cousins did what any rational person would do in that situation, he PANICKED! he drew up a play in the dirt and fired a pass to his TE in tight coverage, resulting in a tipped ball and interception to end the game. The clock running down wasn’t as bad as the decision to wing it – would it have been better for Cousins to clock the ball with :14 instead of running the play, then allowing for three more chances to win the game from the Chargers’ 6 yard line? Thinking on the fly is a tough ask, given the circumstances, and this is a scenario that will certainly be practiced in the future, but it does seem like the worst possible outcome happened here at least in part due to poor planning. For two team accustomed to losing games in their strangest imaginable ways, it was an ending that was on brand for each franchise.

* [In fact, some models will advise you to ALWAYS go for it on 4th and 1, regardless of the situation and position on the field (up to and including your own 10 yard line).]

Did Justin Fields Really Need to Come Back Into That Game?
Early in the fourth quarter of the blowout in Kansas City, Fields scrambled for a three yard gain when he was, ahem, tackled by LB Willie Gay. After the play, DJ Moore spotted Fields walking erratically and got the attention of the officials and the Bears to pull him from the game so he could be checked out.
The Bears were on fourth down, so they kicked the field goal; when they got the ball again, put Fields directly back into the game. Coach Matt Eberflus was quite direct in his response, stating Fields had been cleared to return, so he did. Question is, should they? Even with the field goal, the score was 41-3 for the Chiefs with little to play for – even if he was cleared and didn’t have a concussion, why not replace him (and the other starters for that matter). 

With the Bears starting 0-3 and everyone’s job is on the line, including Fields but also (and maybe especially) Eberflus – he’s now 3-17 as head coach, his new defensive coordinator resigned under somewhat dubious circumstances, and Fields has clearly regressed from 2022. While playing Nathan Peterman in an NFL game is almost never advisable, playing the starters either all game or very deep into the game seems indicative of a coach who is really under pressure to solve the issues and hoped more reps would solve the woes of the team. However, this appears to be another example of how Eberflus is outmatched as head coach. Fortunately for him, a musician attended the game which resulted in everyone in sports media turning into gossip columnists and ignoring anything even partially relevant to football. Unfortunately for him, musicians don’t care about 0-3 teams so they’ll again be focused on (bad) football. 

Maybe Nathaniel Hackett Wasn’t So Bad

Ok, let’s not go that far, but the Sean Payton era is off to a horrendous start. There were no controversial calls here but this is obviously a way to shoehorn the Dolphins historic day into this report. The Broncos 0-3 start is a good reminder to not bury your predecessor if at all possible, as things may have been bad but they can always get worse. Then again, can’t imagine things getting much worse than yesterday: the Broncos absolutely folded on Sunday, giving up 726 yards (!!!!) and 70 points (!!!!) to the Dolphins. The 70 points was the most since 1966 and just three off the all-time record, the 726 yards allowed was the most since 1951 when the Rams put up 735 yards in their defeat of the New York Yanks. While it might seem unfair for an NFL team to beat up on a baseball team, one has to wonder if the Broncos would’ve fared better with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on their defensive line than they did with their actual players.

For Miami, the buzz surrounding their offense turned into a roar over the weekend, with pundits now talking up their Super Bowl chances with breathless abandon. The one issue the team had last year (aside from nearly killing Tua Tagovailoa with their O-line), was their run game, but it appears to be much better this year with their two-headed attack of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. The Dolphins rushed for 350 yards, while Mostert and Achane tallied four touchdowns EACH.

So what all of this seems to be pointing at, is that taking calculated risks is generally a wise approach, as long as it’s calculated, and as long as you can live with the negative outcomes. As the saying goes, Fortune Favours the Brave!

Sometimes a concept becomes a lot bigger and more unwieldy than you expect. For me, this was what happened when I wanted to give an overview of what has happened with each team so far this season. As a result, the article I wrote can be found here, but an excerpt can be found below. Enjoy!

Chiefs 17, Jaguars 9
Chiefs status: A little off. In previous years, it was seemingly more common for the Chiefs to put up 37 points in a half than it was for them to have 37 points in two games, yet this is where we find the Chiefs right now. They sorely missed Travis Kelce in the opener against the Lions, and he’s still hobbled by the bad knee, but this offense doesn’t look like the explosive unit we’ve seen in the past. Is it on-field personnel? Is it off-field personnel? Is it just a matter of learning the offense again (which, frankly, is going to have Andy Reid’s fingerprints all over anyways)? Time will tell – and a matchup with the Bears this weekend may be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Jaguars status: Mixed bag. The Jaguars looked in control of their game against the Colts in Week 1 but were outclassed by the Chiefs in Week 2 – even if the score line didn’t reflect that reality. The defense looks strong, having secured 6 takeaways, and the other Josh Allen and Travon Walker have become a strong pass rushing duo. The offense has been hit or miss, with the struggles being very evident against the Chiefs. If there is a positive on that end, it’s that the offense has enough weapons to not need to rely on one player any given week. In Week 1, Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne had big days, in Week 2, it was Christian Kirk – however, Kirk was a non-factor in Week 1 and Etienne and Ridley struggled in Week 2. They’ll need to fire on all cylinders more often as the season progresses. Interesting note: The Jags play back-to-back games in London, starting with a game against the Falcons in Week 4 and wrapping with a match against the Bills in Week 5.

APY WEEK 2 RECAP
Ever go into your decision making process for the picks and miss the one glaring stat that afterwards makes you say “you idiot, how could you miss that GB struggles against the run and went on the road against the most run-heavy team in the league and you put a confidence on it”? Yeah, me neither.

Anyways, it was a good week in the pool, as the average score this week was 13 points. This happened exactly ZERO times last season (and twice in 2021), so a big week for many. The biggest weeks were posted by Neil, Donna K, Paul, Justin, and Will, who each scored 16 of a possible 20 points!

Neil tops the overall standings with 29 points, followed closely by Donna K with 28. Tom is third with 27 points, and Darren, Donna P, and David all round out the money spots with 26 points apiece.

If you find yourself behind in the standings, worry not (yet). You will need approximately 220 points to make some money in the pool. The other side of it is that if you get 220 points, you will drop 124 points in a full season. That means you still have well over 100 mistakes to make from here to the end of the season!

This got too big for an email, but here is an update on the status of each team after two weeks of football.

Eagles 34, Vikings 28
Vikings status: Tense. The Vikings drop to 0-2 with this loss and face a pivotal (for September) matchup with the also 0-2 Chargers (more on them later). The Vikings fell behind 27-7 before making a late-game push to respectability, though there are some concerning trends from Minnesota, especially with the run game on both sides of the ball. They have rushed for a total of 69 yards in two games, with Alexander Mattison really struggling to get his season started now that he is in the starting position at RB. Kirk Cousins has thrown for 708 yards already, but his 4 turnovers (three lost fumbles!) have also hurt the team. The run defense showed its fragility against the Eagles, as they got steamrolled for 259 yards, including 175 by D’Andre Swift. Yes, the Eagles will run against nearly every defense, but the Vikings defense looks outmatched and going into a matchup with the defending NFC champs with an undersized defensive line is generally a recipe for disaster. On the plus side, TE TJ Hockenson and rookie WR Jordan Addison are off to great starts so far – and are showing to be great complements to Justin Jefferson.

Eagles status: NFC favourite again. The Eagles went to 2-0 and don’t look any different from the team that went to the Super Bowl last season with running and defense being their calling cards. Swift’s great day was chronicled above and the defense was able to gain possession of all four Vikings fumbles. Justin Jefferson had a big day (as usual), and since he was effectively locked up by the Eagles in their game last year, he may take a measure of satisfaction for going 11/159 against them. However, his fumble into the end zone helped cost the Vikings the game. That said, the pass defense of the Eagles wasn’t quite as strong as expected in this game and is something to potentially watch as the season progresses.

Ravens 27, Bengals 24
Ravens status: Good start. The Ravens’ offense looked really good in this game, rushing for 178 yards in a balanced attack – Gus Edwards 10/62/TD, Lamar Jackson 12/54, Justise Hill 11/41 – and a workmanlike 237 passing yards. After looking somewhat disjointed in their win over the Texans last week, this win over their division rivals was much more like how they want to play. The defense also slowed down the Bengals, including holding Ja’Marr Chase to 5/31.
Bengals status: Praying to the sacred calf. For the Bengals, it might be time to start handing out the riot helmets. The loss takes the Bengals to 0-2, which is not great for their postseason chances, and their secondary looks less than stellar, but the biggest worry following two weeks is that Joe Burrow aggravated the calf injury he suffered early in camp. As anyone who’s had calf issues can attest, they tend to linger… and sometimes lead to bigger injury worries. It appears that he intends to play through the injury for now, but a long-term injury to Burrow effectively ends the Bengals season, if it does happen.

Seahawks 37, Lions 31 (OT)

Seahawks status: Uncertain. As bad as the Seahawks looked in their Week 1 capitulation at home against the Rams, they looked much better against the Lions and especially their passing offense. The Seahawks put up 328 passing yards, with 6 receivers tallying 35 yards or more. Their pass defense looks to be what can be charitably referred to as a work in progress – they’ve allowed more than 300 yards in both their games. There is a good chance they’ll get back on track at home against the moribund Panthers offense but they’ll need to improve on this if they wish to compete for a playoff spot.

Lions status: Back to Earth. The Lions go into Arrowhead on Banner Night to beat the defending champs, then come back home and lose in OT to the Seahawks. The Lions passing game is good, with three receivers (including rookie TE Sam LaPorta) topping 100 total yards in two games. The thigh bruise suffered by David Montgomery may sideline him for a week or two, so Jahmyr Gibbs may see more work in the run game.

Colts 31, Texans 20

Colts status: Buying Bubble Wrap. Through two games, some things are evident about the Colts new franchise QB Anthony Richardson:
1. He has all the physical tools and a limitless ceiling

2. He has shown better than expected touch and accuracy, and has built a solid rapport with his best receiver, Michael Pittman Jr.

3. He has no fear, but is also reckless
The big challenge for HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter (yes, that’s his real name) may not necessarily be building up Richardson’s in-game acumen, it may be to teach him the art of the slide. Richardson is utterly fearless, but he has exited both games due to injury, leaving the Week 2 game with a concussion. He has not learned the skill of protecting himself from injury and those hits he either avoided or absorbed at Florida hit different at this level.

Texans status: A journey of a thousand miles, taking first steps. This Texans team is very young and still in need of a talent infusion to become competitive in the league. The injury bug has not helped at all, either – Houston was without 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen for the Colts game, and rookie QB CJ Stroud has been fed to the lions, suffering 11 sacks in two games so far (and apparently nursing a shoulder injury). They’ve only allowed 396 yards passing, but that was to two teams with run-first offenses who had the game settled early enough to avoid passing as the game went on. Nico Collins looks like he’s enjoying the Third Year Leap for wide receivers, having emerged as a home run threat for Stroud, with 13/226/1 in two games.

Buccaneers 27, Bears 17

Bears status: Get ready for another long season. To find the positives in this 0-2 Bears team, you have to look very deep under the surface. They are 27th in net offense and 29th in net defense. The Bears have turned the ball over four times but don’t yet have a takeaway. They have sacked an opposing QB just once, but Justin Fields has been sacked TEN times already. This is a pivotal year for Fields, who actually finished 9th in MVP voting a year ago, largely powered by his 1143 rushing yards. This year, he’s rushed for 62 yards as teams are looking to take away his mobility and force him to beat them in the air. He’s now 5-22 as a starter and while you can’t only blame (or credit) a QB for a team’s record, you can certainly point to a 60% completion percentage and 26/24 TD/INT splits. Numbers like those might’ve sent you to Canton in an earlier age, but in this pass-happy, QB protective version of the NFL, those numbers will get you replaced.

Buccaneers status: A Pirate’s Life For Me. Things did not look good for Tampa leading up to the season: Tom Brady retired, the team is committing over a third of its cap space to players that are no longer there, two of their best players (Mike Evans and Devin White) were embroiled in contract squabbles in the preseason, and the QB battle was down to Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask (with Baker winning out). Two games in, and they’re 2-0 in a weak division with a significant road win over the Vikings already under their belt. The Bucs have won their games by protecting the ball and getting takeaways – 5 turnovers on defense, none on offense – getting to the opposing QBs and protecting Mayfield – Baker has been sacked just once while the Bucs have sacked their opponents eight times. While the schedule has its challenges (Eagles on Monday night!), it largely goes their way, so there is a chance we could see them win the division.

Chiefs 17, Jaguars 9
Chiefs status: A little off. In previous years, it was seemingly more common for the Chiefs to put up 37 points in a half than it was for them to have 37 points in two games, yet this is where we find the Chiefs right now. They sorely missed Travis Kelce in the opener against the Lions, and he’s still hobbled by the bad knee, but this offense doesn’t look like the explosive unit we’ve seen in the past. Is it on-field personnel? Is it off-field personnel? Is it just a matter of learning the offense again (which, frankly, is going to have Andy Reid’s fingerprints all over anyways)? Time will tell – and a matchup with the Bears this weekend may be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Jaguars status: Mixed bag. The Jaguars looked in control of their game against the Colts in Week 1 but were outclassed by the Chiefs in Week 2 – even if the scoreline didn’t reflect that reality. The defense looks strong, having secured 6 takeaways, and the other Josh Allen and Travon Walker have become a strong pass rushing duo. The offense has been hit or miss, with the struggles being very evident against the Chiefs. If there is a positive on that end, it’s that the offense has enough weapons to not need to rely on one player any given week. In Week 1, Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne had big days, in Week 2, it was Christian Kirk – however, Kirk was a non-factor in Week 1 and Etienne and Ridley struggled in Week 2. They’ll need to fire on all cylinders more often as the season progresses. Interesting note: The Jags play back-to-back games in London, starting with a game against the Falcons in Week 4 and wrapping with a match against the Bills in Week 5.

Falcons 25, Packers 24
Packers status: Moving on. The transition from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love has gone reasonably well. Love has 6 TDs with zero turnovers – can’t ask for much more than that. The run game needs work on both sides of the ball – the offense would be improved just by having Aaron Jones return to health, but the Packers run defense looked terrible (note: Bijan Robinson is going to do that a lot this year), a worrying trend for a team that couldn’t stop the run last year either. 

Falcons status: Flying high. The Falcons have leveraged a strong run game with stout pass defense to elevate them to a 2-0 start. Perhaps the Panthers and Packers aren’t the best barometers for determining success of your secondary (the Lions will surely be a test this week), but allowing just 267 yards passing in two games (on 4.0 yards per attempt) is no small feat. On the other side of the ball, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have formed a solid duo, rushing for a total of 301 yards in two games. In fact, the Falcons have called the greatest percentage of run plays vs pass plays (56.3%) and are one of only five teams with a 50-50 split or greater (others: Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dallas, and San Francisco).

Bills 38, Raiders 10
Raiders status: Sputtering. The Raiders were able to come away with the victory over the Broncos in Week 1 and got annihilated here by the Bills in Week 2. The offense is struggling significantly, with just 500 yards in two games (the Bills torched then for 450 in Week 2 alone), and a paltry 116 yards rushing – including an anemic 46 yards on 28 carries by Josh Jacobs.Meanwhile James Cook gashed them for 123 yards last week. The turnover battle is being lost as well, with the Raiders turning the ball over 4 times but not having any takeaways so far. The struggles on offense look like they’ll linger, so the defense needs to play like they did in Week 1 if the Raiders are going to have success.

Bills status: Desperately avoiding shooting themselves in the foot. The Bills look like a team whose biggest enemy is themselves. Josh Allen turned the ball over four times (3 picks, 1 fumble) in their opening week loss to the Jets. Aside from the turnovers, the Bills had no business losing that game. They gave up an 83 yard run to Breece Hall in Week 1 which impacts their averages but only 302 passing yards allowed in two weeks. The Allen gaffes appeared to be a big factor in the very public frustrations vented by Stefon Diggs at the end of last season and that is what is going to be a big key to their season. Can Josh Allen tamp down the gunslinger part of his DNA when necessary?

Titans 27, Chargers 24 (OT)
Chargers status: panic? When you lose two games by a total of 5 points, you can write some of it off to just bad luck. The offense has looked solid as usual, even with Austin Ekeler missing Week 2 with an ankle injury. The defense has looked wretched, allowing a staggering 877 yards in two games (and 63 points). They’ve allowed 6.9 yards per play (league average is 5.5), a third down conversion rate of 45.5% (10 of 22, average is around 34%), and 9.0 yards per pass play (over 2 yards more than league average). Numbers will be skewed by Tua and Tyreek’s monster day in Week 1 but it did happen on the Chargers’ watch. The run defense was the Chargers’ Achilles heel last season and it remains to be seen whether the troubles have shifted to the secondary.

Titans status: Meh. The Titans are an unremarkable team. They are good against the run, not great against the pass. They are very run heavy  with not much in the passing game (even with DeAndre Hopkins). 1-1 seems like a fitting record for an average team. 

49ers 30, Rams 23

49ers status: Complete team. No surprises here, the Niners have a powerful defense and a strong run game, just like every other season. Their passing game is not spectacular, but efficient (they rank 5th in average yards per pass play), and they don’t turn the ball over (only once so far) and get takeaways (4 INTs in two weeks). They always beat the Rams, with their ninth straight victory against their division rivals (of course they didn’t win when it really counted two seasons ago, but that’s another story). The Niners will be a factor in the postseason and will be fighting the Eagles for home field advantage all season.

Rams status: Optimistic. With the recent departures and injuries, the Rams had lower expectations going into the season. With Cooper Kupp out, they were relying on a bunch of players with limited experience and/or low ceilings in the skill positions and the defense seemed to consist of Aaron Donald and not much else. Surely, sacrificing the future for a SB window was going to start biting them now, right? Well, maybe still but not yet. The Rams have unearthed a few gems late in the draft and we have two new players fitting that mould: Puka Nacua, a 2023 5th round pick out of BYU and Kyren Williams, last year’s fifth rounder from Notre Dame have surprised many by flying out of the gates to start this season. Nacua is among the league leaders in receiving yards with 266, while Williams has 104 rushing yards and has found the end zone four times already (3 rushing, 1 receiving). Tutu Atwell, a second round pick from 2021 has also seemingly found his place, with 196 receiving yards. Some might’ve predicted Williams’ strong start but Nacua and Atwell have seemingly come from nowhere. One of the big factors in the Rams’ start has been their play on 3rd down on both sides of the ball: they rank 2nd on offense with a 58% success rate, while they hold opponents to a 22% rate (also ranked second). Keeping the chains moving is a key path to success – this usually isn’t sustainable to this extent, but it bears watching this season.

Giants 31, Cardinals 28

Giants status: Fortunate to be 1-1. As the game between the Giants and Cardinals reached halftime, the Giants had surrendered 60 points and scored ZERO. Fortunately, they exploded for 31 points in the second half to beat the Cardinals and potentially saved their season (since all the other NFC East teams are 2-0, going 0-2 was not going to help their playoff hopes). The offense seemed to wake up (hopefully Saquon Barkley’s injury isn’t too severe), but the defense still needs a lot of work. They don’t get pressure on the QB (no sacks at all in two games), don’t get turnovers (zero), and don’t get the opposition off the field on third down (43% opponent success rate). They’ll need to find answers to those issues and ASAP since they travel to San Francisco for a Thursday night game.

Cardinals: Scrappy (but not very good). Arizona made a lot of tongues wag in the offseason by cutting or trading any and all saleable assets to accelerate the rebuild process. Kyler Murray is still recovering from his torn ACL and likely won’t be back until mid-season (if at all), they also acquire the Texans first rounder in 2024, ostensibly to double their odds of landing the top pick in the draft (Caleb Williams alert!). They have a bunch of hungry, if outclassed players who are looking at their own futures and have played two tight, yet mistake ridden games. Against the Commanders, they allowed only 248 yards and got 3 turnovers… but the offense got only 210 yards and turned the ball over twice. On Sunday, they flipped the script – the offense had a good game but the defense fell apart in the second half as they blew a 21 point lead to the Giants. This team gets the Cowboys and Niners over the next two weeks, and victories will be few and far between in the rest of the schedule, but at least they’re making this difficult (mostly) on their opponents.

Cowboys 30, Jets 10
Jets status: Despair. After all the talk and drama and heightened expectations, losing Aaron Rodgers on the third play of the season was a gut punch in a series of gut punches for Jets fans. Finally a QB that could take them back to the promised land (just, uh, don’t look at his recent playoff track record)! Now they have a soon-to-be 40 year old with a ruptured (now repaired) Achilles. The Jets still won their opener against the Bills due to an epic meltdown by Josh Allen, but they received no quarter from the Cowboys, with the Jets getting just 215 yards total offense and committing 4 turnovers. This team was built to compete for the playoffs but without a capable QB, this team will be lucky to sniff .500.

Cowboys status: Dominant. The Cowboys offense has been decent, but with the performance of their defense, they haven’t really needed to strain themselves yet. The defense has allowed just 10 points in two games and, looking at the numbers, it’s a surprise that they’ve allowed so many. First, the Giants and Jets both look lost right now and that likely plays a big role… but the defense is also very scary. The Cowboys have already sacked opposing QBs 10 times and taken the ball away seven times. Scheduling fortune will continue to smile upon them with the Cardinals and Patriots next on their list before an actual challenge meets them in Week 5 (Niners). 

Commanders 35, Broncos 33

Commanders status: Survivors. Week 1 the Commanders came back from a 6 point fourth quarter deficit to win, in Week 2, they came back from a 21-3 deficit to beat the Broncos. It didn’t come without drama though, as the Broncos hit an improbable Hail Mary on the last play of the game, only to get thwarted on the two-point conversion. The Commanders get two big chances to prove their quick start isn’t a fluke: this week at home to Buffalo and next week at Philadelphia.

Broncos status: Yikes. Sean Payton was hired away from his cushy studio job at Fox with two goals in mind, bring the Broncos back to respectability, and fix Russell Wilson. The jury is still very much out, with two losses by a combined three points, it’s not completely fair to judge too early in the process. Russell Wilson looks a little better under the new regime, though, at 35, he is starting to show his age a little. He can still scramble, but avoiding pass rushers and taking off for big gains does not come as easily for him anymore. He has been sacked nine times in two games and while the offensive line has underperformed, his style of play will always invite more contact. 

Dolphins 24, Patriots 17

Dolphins status: Electric. The Dolphins lead the league in total offense and passing yards, and this year with Raheem Mostert healthy (for now), they have a competent run game. They’ve put up 925 total yards, and 710 passing yards, both easily leading the league – their only issue is that their defense is nearly as permissive, allowing 721 total yards and 321 rushing yards. That said, the Dolphins have won their first two games on the road and go into a favourable home game against the Broncos in Week 3. If they can stop the bleeding on defense, it’ll help their chances later in the season. For the time being, they’ll enjoy the hot start and hope they can keep Tua Tagovailoa healthy. 

Patriots status: Danger Zone. The Patriots are 0-2 in a division with the Bills and Dolphins, and a conference with 10-12 playoff contenders. This is a team that needs to rely on defense and protecting the football – they got defense in Week 1 against the Eagles, holding them to just 251 total yards – but they got neither in Week 2 against the Dolphins. The Dolphins will likely be a problem for nearly every team this season if Tua is healthy. However, the Pats in general and Mac Jones in particular, needs to do a better job of protecting the football. They don’t have the type of quick-strike offense that can cover up mistakes, they need to grind out possessions and keep teams like the Dolphins off the field as much as possible. The Pats have 506 yards of passing in two weeks, which seems like a good indicator, but that is on 96 pass attempts, around 5.0 yards per pass – 25th in the league. The run game also needs to get going somewhat if they are to challenge for a playoff spot. Otherwise, it might be a long season in New England.

Saints 20, Panthers 17
Saints status: Stout defense, sad offense. The Saints have scored 36 total points and go into Week 3 with a 2-0 record with a trip to Lambeau on the way. Will the Saints keep this up? Their defense, especially their pass rush (7 sacks) and secondary (4 takeaways) seems to be up to the challenge. The offense is still very much a work in progress. They are missing Alvin Kamara, who will rejoin the team in Week 4 after serving his suspension, but Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed have picked up the slack from a skill position standpoint. 

Panthers status; A Long Way To Go. Bryce Young has struggled significantly so far in his rookie campaign. The first overall pick has racked up 299 yards on 59% completion rate. The initial opinion on Young is that the game looks a little fast for him right now, and a player who was so reliant on timing and tempo at Alabama is not getting much of that with Carolina at the moment. The offense is very thin at the skill positions – though Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard have formed a competent RB room, the receivers room is lacking. This is going to be a long season for him, but he really needs the reps to get accustomed to life in the NFL.

Steelers 26, Browns 22

Browns status: Waiting on Watson. Deshaun Watson’s play in the first two games has been poor, to put it succinctly. He has turned the ball over four times, including a fumble returned for a touchdown by TJ Watt. While he did spend almost two years away from football (by his own doing), he has now played eight games for the Browns and has not nearly approached what he did in Houston. He was a 67.8% passer as a Texan, his completion percentage is a full 10 points under that as a Brown. He threw for 4823 yards in his final season in Houston with a 33/7 TD/INT ratio. As a Brown, he’s thrown for 1491 yards in 8 games with a 9/7 ratio. With his $230M guaranteed contract, expectations will start mounting and he’ll need to prove his contract. With the gruesome injury suffered by Nick Chubb last night, he’ll have less of a safety net to work with as well, increasing the pressure.
Steelers status: Will only go as far as their defense takes them. And the jury is still out on that. The Steelers have allowed a league-worst 5.6 yards per carry and while this unit can win games on its own (and needed to be opportunistic to do so in Week 2), it still does need some cleanup. When it comes to the Steelers offense, the less said the better. They’ve averaged 4.3 yards per play, a frighteningly low number. The lone bright spot is George Pickens, who torched the Cleveland secondary for a 4/127/1 line. They have two winnable games on the road (at LV, at HOU), then a matchup with their hated rivals from Baltimore before the bye. If they can be 3-2 or by then, they’ll be able to entertain thoughts of playoff contention. Anything worse, and it’s an uphill battle they don’t have the facilities to overcome.

The Aaron Rodgers offseason saga took months to unfold, from cryptic comments following the Lions upset win at Lambeau, which caused the Packers to miss the playoffs last season, to Rodgers allegedly ghosting the Packers, his “darkness retreat“, numerous appearances on Pat McAfee’s podcast, including the infamous one where he expressed his desire to play for the Jets, then the protracted trade talks with the Packers and Jets, which eventually led to a deal on the eve of draft night. The 39-year-old future Hall of Famer wasn’t expected to last a long time, but hopefully a good time for the success-starved Jets franchise. Instead, his Jets career might’ve lasted the sum total of three offensive snaps. Rodgers was sacked by Leonard Floyd and with it, suffered a torn Achilles tendon.

Now, there are examples of players coming back from Achilles tears, including one of the greatest ever QBs, but Rodgers will be 40 in December, and Achilles tears are famously difficult to return from for players more than 10 years younger… and as anyone on the wrong side of 40 knows: even the most medial of physical tasks does not get easier with age.

On the plus side for the Jets, they did beat the Bills – though reviews were (ahem) mixed on Zach Wilson’s performance – and their defense forced Josh Allen into four turnovers, including an awful second half performance by the supposed MVP candidate QB. The defense should keep them afloat this year and, of course, Breece Hall is back, so the hope is still there for a playoff spot… maybe?

Two teams happy to receive a bit of a diversion: the Steelers and Giants. Both teams looked lost on their respective home fields, getting annihilated by the Niners and Cowboys. The Steelers looked bad but the Giants looked dire with the Cowboys scoring touchdowns in all three phases (offense, defense, special teams) and sacked newly minted $160 million man Daniel Jones SEVEN times in the 40-0 romp. While teams have had bad opening weeks before and recovered, this Giants team resembled the 2021 bottom-feeder more than the 2022 playoff team.

Such a wild week that you almost forget that the Detroit Lions went into Arrowhead and defeated the defending champs on their own turf. But they did. Just ask Kadarius Toney.

POOL PRIZES
The pool roster has been set – we have 43 entrants, which means $860 to split up. The prizes will be divided as follows:
FIRST PRIZE: $600
SECOND PRIZE: $125
THIRD PRIZE: $75
FOURTH PRIZE: $20
MINI POOL A: $20
MINI POOL B: $20
For those new to the pool, the mini-pools will run the final six weeks of the season – a way for some of the folks outside the top 4 hunt to have a chance to earn their entry fees back.

POOL RESULTS
In the pool, we had strong opening weeks from Neil, Darryl, and Tom, who all put up a lucky 13 points to take the early lead. Scores were decent, though hampered by home losses by Minnesota (a popular confidence pick), Kansas City, and Seattle, while the egg Cincinnati laid was also unexpected by many. The top three were followed by eight others, including the 2022 top 2 – Donna and Fred. As always, a reminder that a poor Week 1 is not a death sentence – in fact, getting the dud out of the way early may help get a feel for the season and honing your betting strategies.

In one month – 31 agonizingly long, but here-before-you-know-it days – the National Football League will kick off its 104th season in Kansas City, where the defending champion Chiefs will take on the Detroit Lions.

And when the season starts, so will the APY NFL Football Pool! This will be the third season on the All Purpose Yards website. Check the APY website for weekly updates!

The key details will all be the same as in previous seasons:

• a weekly picks pool – you pick every game of the NFL season and accumulate points
• $20 entrance fee is good for the whole season (payable via e-transfer)
• four weekly confidence picks of your choosing (win more points for successful picks, lose points for unsuccessful picks)
• weekly updates with some form of insight and levity
• most importantly: the ability to crush your competition – friends, foes, and complete strangers
• if you do win, fast and reliable payouts!

For those who are interested in joining us and want more details, please feel free to reach out to me at mattgouldburnfootball@gmail.com. In the coming weeks, I’ll provide a more comprehensive outline of the rules of play but in the meantime a summary can be made available.

Also, be sure to check the APY site for additional details regarding the league (and NFL in general)!

The last week of the season is always an interesting experience, especially for people choosing the outcomes of these games. Motivation is always at question when teams don’t have a postseason to play for, or are matched up with teams that need a win to get in.
For instance, Miami and the Jets played a game where it didn’t look like either team wanted to win. The Dolphins had a playoff spot on the line while the Jets did not (and Joe Flacco, the former Raven, was supposed to help the Steelers get in?)
Meanwhile in Green Bay, the Lions were ousted from the playoffs by the Seahawks earlier in the day but turned in an impressive performance in knocking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers out of postseason contention.
And in Indianapolis, the 2-13-1 Texans faced the Colts and the two teams combined for 63 points, including a last minute 2 point conversion by Houston which knocked them out of the #1 draft pick… and got the coach fired almost immediately after – yes, Lovie Smith was probably getting fired anyways, but that had to be the icing on that cake… and also Lovie is probably more loved in Chicago than he was during his entire tenure in the Windy City.

In any event, it can be an unpredictable week for picking, but that’s just what had to be done as we entered into the final week of the APY NFL FOOTBALL POOL. We more or less knew that Donna P was winning (and boy how she did) and Fred was pretty safe in second, but all the other spots were up for grabs. Here’s how the pool shook out at the end:

1. Donna P won the pool by submitting her picks on time. Even still, she put up a strong 15 points and won the pool by the widest margin since the pool’s inception. With 231 points Donna won the pool by 7 points over Fred, and 16 (SIXTEEN!) points over fifth place – if she did not submit a pick at all this week, she still would’ve finished fourth! Such utter dominance will need to be hidden from future prospects so as not to scare them off.
   CONGRATULATIONS TO DONNA, OUR GRAND PRIZE WINNER!
   Donna takes home the $650 Grand Prize!
2. Fred is a first time participant in the pool, but the unique format did not phase him as he coasted to an impressive second place finish, with 224 points. In many seasons, that would be enough to win, but in this case, Fred will settle for second, taking the spot by five points over third place.
   CONGRATS TO FRED, OUR SECOND PRIZE WINNER!
   Fred takes home $150!
3. Randy is also new to the pool, and also turned in a strong rookie season. He was able to hold off the challenges to the prize positions and was able to secure a third place finish.
   CONGRATS TO RANDY, OUR THIRD PRIZE WINNER!
   Randy’s prize is $80
4. Tom is no rookie, as he’s been with us since the start of the pool, which I believe started around the time of single crossbar helmets, but this crafty veteran was able to hold off the challenges from another grizzled vet (Kevin) and a newer participant (Jay) and finish in fourth place.
   CONGRATS TO TOM, OUR FOURTH PRIZE WINNER!
   Tom will be the recipient of $20 for his trouble.
5. In Mini-Pool A, eyes were also glued to the main standings, where Darryl was competing for one of the big prizes, which would’ve removed him from MPA contention. Alas, Darryl had to settle for a top 10 finish in the main pool, but his 82 points were enough to hold off strong challenges from Michelle and Keville (80 each).
   CONGRATS TO DARRYL, OUR MINI-POOL A WINNER!
6. In Mini-Pool B, a hard-fought battle between Matt and Jason R was decided on the last day with Matt squeaking ahead to win MPB with 87 points. Jason R finished just behind with 85.
   Um, yeah, congrats Matt.
7. Mini-Pool C was our closest competition perhaps in the entire pool. the prospect of a four or even five way tie was possible here. It came down to the final game, where the win by Detroit meant that this pot was split by Kevin and Steve. They both won MPC with 86 points, just ahead of Terry (85) and Jay (84). Kevin and Steve will each take home $10.
   CONGRATS TO KEVIN AND STEVE, OUR MINI-POOL C WINNERS!

APY FINAL STANDINGS

Mini-Pool A

Mini-Pool B

Mini-Pool C

CLOSING
Thank you all very much for joining the APY NFL Football Pool 2022! I hope you’ve enjoyed the pool and for anyone who is interested in reading this year’s content (or wants to bookmark), you can check out the blog: footballpool.allpurposeyards.com!

Check here for a detailed description of the playoff scenarios.

This post is about how the scores impact the playoff seedings (and first overall pick scenarios)
Last update: 12:00 am ET

AFC SEEDING
(4:30 pm) All teams and seeds have been confirmed in the AFC. We also know that if the Chiefs and Bills play in the Conference Championship game, the game will be played at a neutral site (site yet to be determined).

1 seed
The Kansas City Chiefs have locked up the first round bye. They need a Bills loss to confirm homefield advantage throughout the playoffs

2 seed
Buffalo or Cincinnati – a Bills loss and Bengals win give the Bengals the 2-seed. All other scenarios confirms the 2 seed for Buffalo. A Buffalo win means a Bills-Chiefs AFC Conference Championship Game would be played at a neutral site.
New England vs Buffalo
Bills 35, Patriots 23 (FINAL)
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Bengals 27, Ravens 16 (FINAL)
With their win, the Bills earned the 2 seed and a Bills-Chiefs AFCCG will be played at a neutral site.

AFC North – 3 vs 6 matchup
Baltimore at Cincinnati – if Baltimore wins this game, the Bills beat New England, and the Chargers lose, a coin flip will be used to determine the home team for the 3 vs 6 game. In all other scenarios, Cincinnati hosts
Bengals 27, Ravens 16 (FINAL)
With their win, the Bengals will once again face the Ravens in Cincinnati in the Wild Card Weekend.

4 seed
The Jacksonville Jaguars locked up the AFC South and the 4 seed by beating the Titans on Saturday night.

5/6 seed
LA Chargers or Baltimore – a Ravens win and Chargers loss would give the #5 seed to the Ravens. In all other scenarios, the Chargers will earn the 5 seed and the Ravens will be 6th.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Bengals 27, Ravens 16 (FINAL)
LA Chargers at Denver
Broncos 31, Chargers 28 (FINAL)
The Los Angeles Chargers have clinched the 5 seed and will face the Jaguars in Jacksonville in the Wild Card Round.

7 seed
New England, Miami, or Pittsburgh
New England earns the 7 seed with a win or a loss by the Dolphins and Steelers
Miami earns the 7 seed with a win and a Patriots loss
Pittsburgh earns the 7 seed with a win and losses by New England and Miami
New England at Buffalo
Bills 35, Patriots 23 (FINAL)
NY Jets at Miami
Dolphins 11, Jets 6 (FINAL)
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Steelers 28, Browns 14 (FINAL)
The Miami Dolphins sneak into the playoffs with the 7 seed and face the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card Round!

AFC WILD CARD ROUND MATCHUPS
1 seed (bye): Kansas City
7. Miami (9-8) at 2. Buffalo (13-3)
6. Baltimore (10-7) at 3. Cincinnati (12-4)
5. LA Chargers (10-7) at 4. Jacksonville (9-8)

2/3 seed
San Francisco, Philadelphia, Dallas, Minnesota
Minnesota can overtake San Francisco for the #2 seed if San Francisco loses and Minnesota wins. Otherwise, Minnesota is the 3 seed.
Arizona at San Francisco
Niners 38, Cardinals 13
Minnesota at Chicago
Vikings 29, Bears 13 (FINAL)
Minnesota takes the 3 seed after the Niners beat the Cardinals

4 seed
Tampa Bay locked up the NFC South and the 4 seed with a win over Carolina in Week 17.

5 seed
Dallas is the 5 seed in the NFC after losing to Washington

NFC
(12:00 am) The Lions go into Lambeau Field and do the Seahawks a huge favour by beating the Packers and giving Seattle the 7 seed in the last game of the season. The Eagles take the bye after beating the Giants on Sunday, while the Niners are at two after they demolished the Cardinals in J.J. Watt’s last game.

1 seed and NFC East
Philadelphia, San Francisco, or Dallas
Philadelphia earns the 1 seed with a win, or losses by both San Francisco and Dallas. Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win or a Cowboys loss.
San Francisco earns the 1 seed with a win and Eagles loss
Dallas earns the 1 seed with a win and losses by the Eagles and Niners. Dallas wins the NFC East with a win and Eagles loss.
NY Giants at Philadelphia
Eagles 22, Giants 16
Arizona and San Francisco
Niners 38, Cardinals 13
Dallas at Washington
Commanders 26, Cowboys 6
Philadelphia wins the NFC East and gets the first round bye with the 1 seed with their win over the Giants.
San Francisco clinches the 2 seed with their win over the Cardinals.

6 seed
The New York Giants locked up the 6 seed with their win over Indianapolis in Week 17

7 seed
Green Bay, Seattle, or Detroit
Green Bay earns the 7 seed with a win over Detroit
Seattle earns the 7 seed with a win or Green Bay loss
Detroit at Green Bay
Lions 20, Packers 16
LA Rams at Seattle
Seahawks 19, Rams 16
The Seattle Seahawks take the 7 seed as they win a tight one over the Rams in overtime, then the Lions upset the Packers in Lambeau in Game 271!

NFC WILD CARD ROUND
1. Philadelphia (14-3) bye
7. Seattle (9-8) at San Francisco (13-4)
6. NY Giants (9-7-1) at Minnesota (13-4)
5. Dallas (12-5) at Tampa Bay (8-9)

FIRST OVERALL PICK
Houston or Chicago
Houston earns the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft with a loss to the Colts or a Bears win over Minnesota
Chicago earns the top pick with a Texans win and a Bears loss
Houston at Indianapolis
Texans 32, Colts 31
Minnesota at Chicago
Vikings 29, Bears 13 (FINAL)
The Chicago Bears have the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft!

As always, the last week of the NFL season means a lot for some teams… and very little for others. Here, we will run through all the different playoff scenarios for each of the teams heading into Week 18. Then on gameday, we’ll set up another post with all the outcomes from the weekend games.

With the cardiac arrest suffered by Bills safety Damar Hamlin, the teams and league ultimately decided to do the right thing and suspend the Bills-Bengals game until further notice. The NFL will likely want to get this game in somewhere, which will provide some interesting postseason scheduling, but that’s not really all that important in the grand scheme of things – the Bills and Bengals will adapt to whatever situation they find themselves in. Until the game is cancelled, the assumption will be that they will make the game up.

AFC
Interestingly, with a week to go, no team is locked into a specific seed in the AFC. There are some teams with very direct seeding or playoff scenarios, but none of that is confirmed heading into Week 18. The Jets and the Raiders were both officially eliminated from playoff contention, and the Pats leapfrogged Miami into the seventh spot for the time being after their 23-21 win over the Dolphins in Week 17. The Steelers have a chance, while the Titans and Jaguars face off Saturday night for the AFC South Title.
1. KANSAS CITY (13-3)
2. BUFFALO (12-3)
3. CINCINNATI (11-4)
4. JACKSONVILLE (8-8)
—-
5. LOS ANGELES (10-6)
6. BALTIMORE (10-6)
7. NEW ENGLAND (8-8)

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
MIAMI (8-8)
PITTSBURGH (8-8)
TENNESSEE (7-9)

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
KANSAS CITY (13-3)
Chances of Earning a First Round Bye: 48%
Week 18: at Las Vegas (6-10), Sat 4:30 pm ET
The Chiefs odds of taking the first round bye increase significantly if the Bills-Bengals game is not played. Both the Bills and Bengals own head-to-head tiebreakers over the Chiefs, which means they could find themselves with the third seed if they lose and Cincinnati wins out and the Bills beat the Pats.
BUFFALO (12-3)
Chances of Earning a First Round Bye: 44%
Remaining Games: Week 18 vs New England (8-8), Sun 1:00 pm ET, TBD at Cincinnati (11-4)
With S Damar Hamlin suffering a cardiac arrest on the field in Week 17’s suspended MNF game, there’s no telling what the Bills’ mindset will be heading into their Week 18 game against New England, let alone if they’ll make up the Week 17 game ahead of the postseason.
CINCINNATI (11-4)
Chances of Earning a First Round Bye: 8%
Chances of Winning AFC North: 84%
Remaining Games: Week 18 vs Baltimore (10-6), TBD vs Buffalo (12-3)
Not playing the Week 17 game would clinch the division for the Bengals, but also eliminates them from getting the bye. They have the tiebreaker over the Bills on strength of victory without playing the game, so if the Bengals beat the Ravens and Pats beat the Bills, the Bengals would have the 2-seed (and face the Pats on Wild Card Weekend).
JACKSONVILLE (8-8)
Playoff Chances: 79%
AFC South Division Chances: 75%
Week 18: vs Tennessee (7-9), Sat 8:15 pm
This game against the Titans is a win-and-in situation. The Jaguars win the AFC South with a win, but they can also get the seven seed with a loss if the Patriots, Dolphins, and Steelers also lose. The Titans have been decimated by injuries in the latter part of the season, including a high ankle sprain to starting QB Ryan Tannehill, which put him on the IR. The Titans will start Joshua Dobbs at QB for this pivotal matchup but they rested Derrick Henry in Week 17 and will have him for this game. And with Henry, they have a shot. The FiveThirtyEight.com model gives the Jaguars a 3-to-1 chance to win.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (10-6)
Week 18: at Denver (4-12), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The scenarios for the Chargers are very straight-forward. Win at Denver and the Chargers get the 5th seed. An 11-6 Chargers team wins a tiebreaker over the team that finishes second in the AFC North. The Chargers can also get the five seed with a loss if the Ravens also lose in Week 18.
BALTIMORE (10-6)
AFC North Division chances: 16%
Week 18: at Cincinnati (11-4)
The Ravens may not know whether their Week 18 game will help them win the division until after the game is played. There is a chance that the Bills-Bengals game does not get played, which gives the AFC North title to Cincinnati. Baltimore would then be playing for the 5th or 6th seed – which could pit them against Jacksonville or Tennessee… or Buffalo or Cincinnati. They need the Chargers to lose for a chance at the five seed though, so Cincinnati is their likely opponent in the Wild Card round regardless.
NEW ENGLAND (8-8)
Playoff Chances: 33%
Week 18: at Buffalo (13-3), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Patriots solution is simple, WIN = IN. The problem is not so simple. The Patriots need to go into Buffalo and defeat the Bills – a team that, aside from Wind Bowl 2021, has dominated the Pats in the Josh Allen era. If the Chiefs win on Saturday, there is a decent chance that the Bills, rocked by Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest as it is, will rest or play their starters only sparingly and accept their fate of playing in the Wild Card round. Given their opponent and the Dolphins hosting the Jets, the Pats hold the last seed but actually have lower odds than the Dolphins of making the playoffs.

MIAMI (8-8)
Playoff Chances: 42%
Week 18: vs NY Jets (7-9), Sun 1:00 pm ET
With their 23-21 loss to the Patriots in Week 17, the Dolphins went from controlling their destiny, to needing a win and help to make the playoffs. With the status of QB Tua Tagovailoa up in the air for their Week 18 game against the Jets and being on a five-game losing streak, the Dolphins cannot take anything for granted. The positives for them: Buffalo has not been kind to the Patriots in recent games and the free-falling Jets have also lost five in a row and only have pride to play for after being knocked out of playoff contention by the Seahawks last week. The Dolphins need a win and a Patriots loss to make the playoffs.
PITTSBURGH (8-8)
Playoff chances: TBD
Week 18: vs Cleveland (7-9), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Steelers are starting to make a habit of these improbable late season playoff runs. Last season, the Steelers had a 5% chance of making the playoffs and needed a wild sequence of events – including a win at Baltimore, a win by the then 2-14 Jaguars over Indianapolis, and for the Chargers-Raiders game to not end in a tie which, of course, was about to happen before Brandon Staley decided to call a timeout for some unknown reason. This season, the odds are slightly better but no less complex. The Steelers need to beat the Browns at home, but also need the Patriots to lose at Buffalo and for the Dolphins to lose at home to the Jets. The latter game is a complete wild card – the Jets and Dolphins have both lost five in a row and we have no idea who will be under centre for either team.
TENNESSEE (7-9)
AFC South Division chances: 26%
Week 18: at Jacksonville, Sat 8:15 pm ET
The Titans went into their Week 17 matchup against the Cowboys knowing that the result was insignificant – the Titans couldn’t (and can’t) make the playoffs as a wild card this season but if they win at Jacksonville on Saturday, they’ll win the division record tiebreaker and get a home playoff game. The result? A competitive loss against a strong Cowboys team that really needed the win to keep their hopes of the NFC 1 seed alive. For this crucial matchup, the Titans will start Joshua Dobbs at QB, a real-life rocket scientist who has been with the team for about two weeks. Derrick Henry will play and when he plays, you can put a 13 year old under centre and the Titans have a shot.

NFC
Some significant events occurred in the NFC last weekend: the Bucs *ahem* won the NFC South by beating the Panthers 30-24 and, with nothing to play for in Week 18, will likely rest everyone – or at the very most treat the game like a preseason game and play the starters for a quarter (with the amount of veterans on this team I doubt that they’ll even do that). In Washington, the Commanders slept-walked through a crucial home game against the Browns and have been eliminated. In Green Bay, the Packers absolutely dominated the Minnesota Vikings which means the Packers now sit with the sixth seed ahead of a massive showdown with the 8-8 Lions. The Eagles lost to the Saints, which means their final game against the Giants is now important if they want to take the 1-seed. All the divisions are now decided, so all eyes are on the race for the 7-seed, which we now know will belong to a 9-8 team.
1. PHILADELPHIA (13-3)
2. SAN FRANCISCO (12-4)
3. MINNESOTA (12-4)
🔒 4. TAMPA BAY (8-8)
——–
5. DALLAS (12-4)
🔒 6. NY GIANTS (9-6-1)
7. GREEN BAY (8-8)

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
SEATTLE (8-8)
DETROIT (8-8)

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
1. PHILADELPHIA (13-3)
Chances of Earning First Round Bye: 92%
Chances of Winning NFC East: 94%
Week 18: vs NY Giants (9-6-1), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The impact of not having Jalen Hurts in the lineup the past two weeks has been glaringly evident, as the team that ran a 13-1 record with him has now lost two in a row and all of a sudden has an important Week 18 game against the Giants. They need to win to secure the 1 seed in the NFC. Both the Niners and Cowboys own tiebreakers over the Eagles, which means a loss paired with a loss by either team puts Philly either in the 2 or 5 seed heading into the postseason. On the plus side, the Giants have nothing to play for, having secured the 6-seed with their Week 17 win over the Colts. That said, I would not expect a walkover by the Giants against their hated division rival.
2. SAN FRANCISCO (12-4)
Chances of Earning First Round Bye: 7%
Week 18: vs Arizona (4-12), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The Niners went into Week 8 with a 3-4 record, having lost to the Bears, Broncos, and Falcons. It would’ve been fair to assume that the Niners were vulnerable even in a division having an unexpected down year. GM John Lynch must’ve noticed this as well, as he went out and got former All Pro RB Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers before the trade deadline. McCaffrey was there in time for the loss to the Chiefs, but he really made his presence known in the Week 8 win over the Rams, scoring touchdowns on their ground, in the air, and added a passing TD for good measure. Since that 3-4 start, the Niners have won nine in a row, continuing their winning ways even after Jimmy Garoppolo went down with injury and was replaced by 2022 NFL Draft Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy from Iowa State. Purdy has integrated into Kyle Shanahan’s system flawlessly, as they continue their winning ways. Now, all the Niners need is a win over a struggling Cardinals team on their fourth quarterback and an Eagles loss against the Giants to take the 1 seed. They own the conference record tiebreaker over the Cowboys, so the Niners don’t need to worry about that game factoring into their decision-making.
3. MINNESOTA (12-4)
Week 18: at Chicago (3-13), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Vikings have a 12-4 record but a point differential of -19. Their Week 1 win over the Packers was the only game that they won by more than 8 points, and there were just FOUR games in which they did not trail in the fourth quarter. You can look at this from the positive or negative side: ability to come back from nearly any deficit is a great trait for a team heading into the playoffs, however, falling behind against top competition is not a recipe for success. The Vikings need to win and have the Niners lose to take the two seed, which could mean a date with the Packers, whom they just got blown out by, or the Lions, whom they lost to by 11 in Week 14. Nobody should be surprised if Minnesota rests its starters and takes their chances against the Giants, against whom they required a 61 yard field goal to beat in Week 16.
4. TAMPA BAY (8-8)
Week 18: at Atlanta (6-10), Sun 1:00 pm ET
Tampa is locked in with the 4 seed after a thrilling win over the Panthers in Week 17. They’ll host either the Cowboys or Eagles on Wild Card Weekend. Expect this veteran-laden team to rest many of their starters in Week 18.

5. DALLAS (12-4)
Chances of Earning First Round Bye: 0.8%
Chances of Winning NFC East: 6%
Week 18: at Washington (7-8-1), Sun 4:25 pm ET
After destroying the Colts in the fourth quarter of their Week 13 games, the Cowboys have: needed a last minute TD to beat the Texans, lost after being up 27-10 against the Jaguars, come from behind to beat Gardner Minshew (and the Eagles), and safely, but not soundly defeated the second unit of the Titans. On paper, this is one of the league’s best teams – they have a two-headed monster at RB (Elliott and Pollard), one of the league’s best receivers (CeeDee Lamb), a strong QB, if not a top Tier QB (Dak Prescott), a dominant pass rush and a scary do-it-all linebacker (Micah Parsons). In practice, it can look that way sometimes (see their 40-3 demolition of the Vikings), but not always. Their +145 point differential trails only the Bills and Niners (and not by a lot). Dallas is fifth if the Eagles win, second if the Eagles lose but the Niners do not, and they’ll get the bye if they win and both the Eagles and Niners lose.
6. NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS (9-6-1)
Week 18: at Philadelphia (13-3), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The Giants are locked in with the six seed after pasting the Colts this past weekend. They’ll travel to San Francisco or Minnesota (likely Minnesota).
7. GREEN BAY (8-8)
Playoff Chances: 62%
Week 18: vs Detroit (8-8), Sunday 8:20 pm ET
The Green Bay Packers flipped the calendar to December with a 4-8 record, a maligned defense, and inept offense and, to some, a QB controversy on their hands. As the calendar changed over to 2023, the Packers are now 8-8, in control of their own destiny and a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs. They now have a #1 receiver in Christian Watson and their defense has turned things around, allowing only 17 PPG in the past four games. Their Week 18 matchup is no layup though, they face a Lions team who may or may not have something to play for but that team will play hard no matter the situation and is good enough to put some points on the board. The two teams played a tough, if not aesthetically pleasing game in Week 9 which the Lions won 15-9.

SEATTLE (8-8)
Playoff chances: 21%
Week 18: vs LA Rams (5-11), Sun 4:25 pm ET
Imagine if someone told you before the season started that the Seahawks would have a 21% chance to make the playoffs prior to Week 18, you might’ve checked for signs of over-medication… or maybe some highlighter-green jerseys in that person’s closet. (Of course, we now know that over-medication is not the only reason for half-baked If that person told you the same thing after Week 9, you’d say it was a collapse… though perhaps given the team’s expectations not exactly a surprise. Either way, this is the scenario the Seahawks find themselves in heading into Week 18 – they don’t control their destiny, but they can lock up an above .500 season with a win, and then be Lions fans for SNF. They have the tiebreaker over the Lions following that crazy Week 4 game in Detroit that ended 48-45 for Seattle.
DETROIT (8-8)
Playoff chances: 17%
Week 18: at Green Bay (8-8), Sun 8:20 pm ET
After Week 8 the perennially moribund Detroit Lions had the league’s worst record (1-6) and were staring down the barrel of another early draft pick and a likely overhaul in the organization. Since then, the Lions have gone on a tear, winning 7 of their last 9, including last week’s obliteration of the Bears. The Lions offense with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (no, not THAT Ben Johnson) have been formidable all season, but it took a while for their very young defense to round into form. Since the Seahawks play earlier in the day, the Lions will know whether they are playing for a playoff spot or to knock the Packers out – and finish above .500 for the first time since 2017 (and fifth time this century!)

RACE TO THE BOTTOM
On the other end of the spectrum, two teams have a chance at securing the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans and the Chicago Bears.
32. HOUSTON (2-13-1)
31. CHICAGO (3-13)

HOUSTON (2-13-1)
Best possible draft pick: 1st overall
Worst possible draft pick: 2nd overall
Week 18: at Indianapolis (4-11-1), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Texans were downright feisty in the three weeks heading into the matchup with the Jaguars in Week 17, having defeated the Titans, taking the Chiefs to overtime, and pushing the Cowboys to the limit before a last minute touchdown sealed the win for Dallas (and loss for Houston). In Week 18, Houston faces a Colts team riding a six game losing streak – the team they tied with in Week 1. Another point to consider, the Texans were 0-7-1 at home this season, but are 2-6 on the road. As far as the players are concerned, this is a great opportunity to end the season on a positive note – as far as management is concerned, this is a great opportunity to lose out on the first overall pick. Luckily for them, taking the lesser of Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud is not a poor consolation prize. They’ll also get a mid-first rounder from the Deshaun Watson trade (and a third rounder), so this will be a big opportunity for them to add blue chip talent to a team that desperately needs it.
CHICAGO (3-13)
Best possible pick: 1st overall
Worst possible pick: 4th overall
Week 18: vs Minnesota (12-4), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Bears have their QB of the Future in Stroud’s predecessor at Ohio State, Justin Fields, so they aren’t taking a quarterback, though they can take a defensive line disruptor in pass rusher Will Anderson from Alabama or DT Jalen Carter from Georgia or trade that pick for a king’s ransom to a QB-needy franchise. This Bears is in dire need of an infusion of talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball and in their offensive line, so taking a top tier defender or getting multiple prime picks for their early pick is a pretty good situation to be in. A win could move the Bears down to the 4th overall pick, which may still net them a player they need (Anderson, Carter, another EDGE, or a LT). The Bears strength of schedule (.555) is the strongest in the league and only looks to become higher once the game with the 12-4 Vikings is factored in.

THE REST OF THE NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS
Players generally aren’t tanking for draft picks, though teams may approach the final week differently. In a lot of cases, reserves are likely to get some playing time in Week 18, and those players will want to put some good tape on their resumes. The Broncos, Rams, Saints, and Browns don’t own their first round picks – in fact, the Broncos shipped their first and second to the Seahawks in the Russell Wilson trade – so they have no incentive to tank at any level. Tennessee (23), Detroit, Seattle, and Miami are all on the outside looking in but since they have a shot at the playoffs, they are not profiled here.
30. DENVER (4-12)
29. ARIZONA (4-12)
28. INDIANAPOLIS (4-11-1)
27. LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-11)
26. LAS VEGAS (6-10)
25. ATLANTA (6-10)
24. CAROLINA (6-10)
22. NEW ORLEANS (7-9)
21. CLEVELAND (7-9)
20. NEW YORK JETS (7-9)
19. WASHINGTON (7-8-1)

DENVER (4-12)
Best possible pick: 20th overall (Denver owns San Francisco’s first round pick)
Worst possible pick: 31st overall
Week 18: vs LA Chargers (10-6), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The Broncos received the Niners first round pick in the Bradley Chubb trade. When the Russell Wilson trade was made and his monster contract extension was signed, it was a signal to the rest of the league – and a seemingly loaded AFC West – that they were a contender to be reckoned with. We know that things did not turn out that way at all in 2022, with Nathaniel Hackett getting the axe 15 games into his first season as head coach. The Broncos showed some life under in Kansas City under interim coach Jerry Rosburg, and should be expected to do more of the same this weekend against the playoff-bound Chargers. The Seahawks will be watching intently, as a Broncos loss and Bears win gives Seattle the second overall pick. Alternatively, a win by the Broncos and a Colts loss drops them to fifth (they won’t surpass the Rams’ strength of schedule).
ARIZONA (4-12)
Best possible pick: 2nd overall
Worst possible pick: 6th overall
Week 18: at San Francisco (12-4), Sun 4:25 pm ET
The final game of the 2022 season marks the end of the career of soon-to-be first ballot Hall of Famer J.J. Watt. It also marks the end of a lost season for Arizona, who lost Kyler Murray to a torn ACL that is likely hamper him as a mobile QB, even if he does come back for the start of the 2023 season. Realistically, we could see a complete overhaul here this offseason, from GM Steve Keim, who recently stepped away from the team for personal reasons, to HC Kliff Kingsbury, to many of their veteran players. This last game in Santa Clara against a Niners team on a nine game winning streak and the possibility of a first round bye is likely not the best send-off imaginable for these Cardinals.
INDIANAPOLIS (4-11-1)
Best possible pick: 3rd overall
Worst possible pick: 6th overall
Week 18: vs Houston (2-13-1), Sun 1:00 pm ET
Much like the Broncos and Cardinals before them, the Colts had a calamitous 2022 season that will have impacts far further than this season. With Frank Reich already fired, the Colts won Jeff Saturday’s debut has head coach, then promptly lost their next six games, including the worst come-from-ahead loss in league history against the Vikings. The Colts have the league’s worst point differential (-137). The offense is there with the Broncos and Texans in contention for the worst unit in the league (just two more points than the league-worst Texans), but more worrying has been the dismal play of a former strength of the Colts, its offensive line – and LG Quenton Nelson in particular. Heading into this season, Nelson was assigned blame for four sacks in his first four seasons with the Colts. In 2022 alone, he has been accredited with 5 sacks. This isn’t borne on Nelson alone though, C Ryan Kelly has also taken a step back, perhaps even more glaring than Nelson. The Colts will need both of them to get back to their previous form if they want to improve in 2023. They play a pesky Texans team and after a thrashing at the hands of the Giants last weekend, one has to wonder whether the Colts have packed it in for the year already, and if the Bears are going to be on the clock after this weekend.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-11)
Best possible pick: 35th overall
Worst possible pick: 40th overall
Week 18: at Seattle (8-8), Sun 4:25 pm ET
Well would you look at that? The Rams have their second round pick this year. The Rams, who haven’t made a first round pick since they took Jared Goff first overall in 2016, won’t make one again this year unless they trade up. The team this year seems to be bearing the bitter fruit of going all in the past few years. It did get them a Super Bowl, so there isn’t really much to complain about, but beyond their superstars – Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, Bobby Wagner – there isn’t really a lot there. And with talk that Donald and head coach Sean McVay could pack it in after this season, there’s going to be an even bigger talent void in this organization. The Rams play the Seahawks in a game that means a whole lot to Seattle… and really the Rams have no incentive to lose either.
LAS VEGAS (6-10)
Best possible pick: 6th overall
Worst possible pick: 9th overall
Week 18: vs Kansas City (13-3), Sat 4:30 pm ET
The Raiders inexplicable playoff run may have come at a bigger price than expected. The Raiders went all in this past offseason, giving David Carr a 3 year, $121 million extension and trading for Carr’s college teammate WR Davante Adams from Green Bay. The result: under new head coach Josh McDaniels, the Raiders have fallen off, limping to a 6-10 record. To be fair, they lost only one game by more than 6 points, so there is some bad luck in this, but changes loom. Carr was excused from the team for the final two games as McDaniels will take a look at Jarrett Stidham, a player he has pretty extensive knowledge of from his days in New England. Carr’s contract isn’t as onerous at it seems either – the cap hit for cutting him this offseason is $5.625M. Granted, they would want to trade him, and with a $40M per year price tag, teams may balk, but either way it appears we are headed for a new QB in Sin City. The Chiefs come into town ready to take the first round bye in the AFC (if the Bills don’t make up last week’s game, which seems increasingly likely), the Raiders will face an extremely tough test from a team on a mission.
ATLANTA (6-10)
Best possible pick: 6th overall
Worst possible pick: 10th overall
Week 18: vs Tampa Bay (8-8), Sun 1:00 pm ET
If you looked at this Falcons roster before the season, would you have said “6-10 heading into the final week seems right?” On paper, this team didn’t seem much better than this – and maybe they were worse. The team had the eighth worst offense in the league (and only had more passing yards that the Bears), and they were fourth worst on defense (and were seventh-worst against the pass). A team that cannot gain yards and cannot defend is in trouble. There were some bright spots – Tyler Allgeier, the rookie from BYU, is at 900 yards on the season, despite starting only 6 games, and fellow rookie WR Drake London has 746 receiving yards which may not seem like a big deal, but in this offense, it’s something. Kyle Pitts? Let’s not talk about him. They’ve been giving Desmond Ridder a long look and he’s playing… like a rookie QB. They also have an anemic pass rush (as they did last year) and more resources are needed there to help with the defense. This weekend, they play a Bucs team with absolutely nothing to play for and a whole bunch of old guys who could use the week off before the wild card game. This has the look of a 10-9 get-me-outta-here special.
CAROLINA (6-10)
Best possible pick: 6th overall
Worst possible pick: 11th overall
Week 18: at New Orleans, Sun 1:00 pm ET
From playoff contender one week to top 10 pick seems incongruous but somehow fitting for this Panthers team. A train wreck under fired HC Matt Rhule has seen some stability with interim coach Steve Wilks and (*checks notes*) Sam Darnold at QB? Wilks has a 5-6 record since taking over and has been able to right the ship even after trading Christian McCaffrey to the Niners for a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick in the 2023 Draft. It seems like Wilks should lose the interim tag this offseason, but Panthers management and ownership seem more apt to make splashy moves than prudent ones, so the jury is still out there. They get to travel to New Orleans for a game that means the sum total of eff all to either team.
NEW ORLEANS (7-9)
Best possible draft pick: 41st overall
Worst possible draft pick: 48th overall
Week 18: vs Carolina (6-10), Sun 1:00 pm ET
The Saints are a team living in figurative purgatory. They always perform some form of magic to stay under the cap – as of this writing they are $53M OVER the cap once again – and they are extremely aggressive at the draft, mortgaging future picks to move up and get players they like. They did that last year when they got Ohio State WR Chris Olave in the first round. This was a great pickup, but they also dealt this year’s first to Philadelphia, who will have a top 15 pick and potentially a first round playoff bye. As mentioned above, their game is meaningless in terms of the standings, so any number of things may happen there.
CLEVELAND (7-9)
Best possible draft pick: 41st overall
Worst possible draft pick: 48th overall
Week 18: at Pittsburgh (8-8), Sun 1:00 pm ET
I’m not sure if they envisioned this scenario when the season started, but the Browns find themselves playing spoiler this weekend while looking ahead to 2023. They dealt their first and third to Houston for Deshaun Watson, who has struggled in his first four games back from his suspension. However, that might’ve been expected since he hadn’t played since 2020 prior to that. The Browns have some changes to make – their pass rush is a one-man operation, while their run defense is one of the league’s worst. They also could use a secondary wide receiver and may need to replace RT Jack Conklin who is a free agent (though I imagine they’ll try to re-sign him). All that said, the Browns have a lot of talent, perhaps the best offensive line in football, and a potential Top 5 quarterback when Watson shakes off the rust.
NEW YORK JETS (7-9)
Best possible draft pick: 10th overall
Worst possible draft pick: 19th overall
Week 18: at Miami (8-8), Sun 1:00 pm ET
Heading into the Week 10 bye, the Jets were 6-3 and in first place in the AFC East, had already defeated the Dolphins and Bills, including the win over the Bills in their last game. After the bye, they imploded, losing to the Pats 10-3 on a last second punt return for a TD – a game that should be considered an abomination, the Jets managed only 103 total yards of offense. Since the bye, the Jets are 1-6 and have lost 5 in a row heading into the finale at Miami. The Pats loss was a catalyst in a bad way, and it was likely the turning point in Zach Wilson’s career. The team was apparently very unhappy with how he handled the criticism and his play has further deteriorated since then. Now, Wilson’s status as a QB is very much in question and this offseason will be very telling in the amount of work he puts in and how the Jets view his future. The Jets have a chance to play spoiler this weekend against Miami, whom they trounced 40-17 in happier times. The Dolphins are clinging to their playoff lives having lost five straight themselves.
WASHINGTON (7-8-1)
Best possible pick: 11th overall
Worst possible pick: 19th overall
Week 18: vs Dallas (12-4), Sun 4:25 pm ET
Much like Miami, this is a team of extreme peaks and valleys – Washington started the season 1-4 with Carson Wentz as QB, then he went down in a 12-7 win over the Bears (remember the consecutive hold my beer TNF frightfests?), and then the Commanders went on a 6-1 run before their tie against the Giants. They were 7-5-1 and tied with the Giants in the standings, firmly in a playoff spot. After that game, the wheels fell off, as they lost 3 games in a row, including an extremely listless home loss to the mediocre Browns last week. Of course, Ron Rivera not knowing that his team could be eliminated later that day was the icing on a rather unappetizing cake. Where does Washington go from here? Likely a new QB, as Wentz will be cut after the season and it’s somewhat apparent that they don’t view Taylor Heinicke as the #1 guy. This weekend, Sam Howell will make his debut against a Cowboys team that will have a lot of motivation. Good luck, kid.

As the season winds down, fans want to know where their team stands in terms of playoff eligibility or seedings therein. For some, it’s simple (yet painful), your team is out and looking forward to the 2023 NFL Draft (unless you’re a Broncos or Rams fan and you’re screwed either way). Here, we’ll outline the playoff scenarios for each team, starting with the AFC:

AFC
IN THE PLAYOFFS
Buffalo (12-3) – clinched AFC East
Kansas City (12-3) – clinched AFC West
Cincinnati (11-4)
Baltimore (10-5)
LA Chargers (9-6)
In the AFC, the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, and Chargers have all clinched playoff berths, while the Bills and Chiefs have won their respective divisions.

WILD CARD ROUND BYE
Buffalo (12-3)
Kansas City (12-3)
Cincinnati (11-4)
Only the Bills, Chiefs, or Bengals can clinch the top seed and a first round bye. Here are the scenarios which they require:
Bills: Buffalo controls its destiny – win both games and they are assured the top seed. Their Week 17 game is against Cincinnati, which is a critical game for seeding in the playoffs. If the Bills win that game, a Chiefs loss clinches the 1 seed. The Bills can also get the 1 seed at 12 wins if the Chiefs lose out and the Bengals lose to the Ravens in Week 18.
Chiefs: The Chiefs lost to both the Bills and Bengals in the regular season, so they’ll need to win out and hope the Bills lose once to get the 1 seed. If the Chiefs lose, they need the Bengals to beat the Bills this week AND have both teams to lose their Week 18 games to get homefield advantage.
Bengals: The Bengals need to beat the Bills for any 1 seed scenario to work. If they win out and the Chiefs lose once, they will get the 1 seed. They can also get the 1 seed if they beat the Bills but lose to the Ravens AND the Bills and Chiefs both lose their remaining games AND Baltimore loses to the Steelers in Week 17.

AFC NORTH
Cincinnati (11-4)
Baltimore (10-5)
The Ravens hold the head-to-head and division tiebreakers with Cincinnati, meaning the Bengals must keep their lead in wins to take the AFC North. If the Ravens lose to the Steelers and the Bengals beat the Bills this week, the Bengals win the division. In any other scenario, the Ravens-Bengals game in Cincinnati decides the division.

AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville (7-8)
Tennessee (7-8)
The winner of the Titans-Jaguars game in Jacksonville in Week 18 gets the AFC South crown and the 4 seed in the conference, regardless of what happens in Week 17. There is a wild card scenario for the Jaguars if they win Week 17 but lose Week 18, but the Titans do not have a wild card path to the postseason, so they may treat their game at home to Dallas as a tune-up.

AFC WILD CARD
Cincinnati (11-4)
Baltimore (10-5)
LA Chargers (9-6)
——————–
Miami (8-7)
Jacksonville (7-8)
New England (7-8)
NY Jets (7-8)
Pittsburgh (7-8)
Las Vegas (6-9)

The Bengals, Ravens, and Chargers are all in. Miami, losers of 4 straight, currently clings to the 7 seed but have a difficult divisional path to a postseason berth. There are four 7-win teams with playoff hopes as well.
Cincinnati could be the 6 seed if it loses both games and the Chargers win both of theirs, otherwise the Bengals are the 5 seed if they do not win the AFC North.
Baltimore could drop to the 7 seed if they lose out, the Dolphins win both their games and the Chargers win at least once, as both the Chargers and Dolphins own tiebreakers over the Ravens. A win or Dolphins loss assures the Ravens of being no worse than sixth. A win over the Steelers and a loss by the Chargers would grant the Ravens the 5 seed.
The Chargers get the 5 seed if they win both games and either the Bengals lose both games or the Ravens lose to the Bengals in Week 18. The Chargers sink to the 7 seed if they lose out and the Dolphins win out. The Chargers hold tiebreakers over the 7 win teams (aside from Jacksonville), so they cannot finish lower than any of those teams (a 9 win Jaguars team makes the playoffs as the AFC South division winner).
Both of Miami’s remaining games are of critical importance, as they go to Foxborough this week to face the Patriots, then host the Jets in Week 18. Win both games and they are in. If the Dolphins lose a game, they need the team they lost to (Pats or Jets) to lose their other game (NE at Buffalo Week 18, NYJ at Seattle this weekend). The Dolphins are eliminated if they lose both games.
New England controls its destiny – if they win both games, they are in at 9-8 as they have the tiebreaker over the Dolphins. An 8 win Patriots team also gets in if (and only if) they Dolphins lose out, the Jets beat the Dolphins but lose to the Seahawks, the Jags do not beat the Texans then lose to the Titans, and the Steelers do not win out.
The Jets need to win both games and have the Patriots lose to make the playoffs, as they hold a tiebreaker over the Dolphins but were swept by the Pats. An 8 win Jets would be eliminated.
The 7-8 Steelers, on a 5-2 run, still have a chance of not just a winning record, but of making the playoffs. Their path is very specific though – they have no tiebreakers over anyone with their poor conference record (3-7), so they need 9 wins to get in and get a lot of help. The Steelers must win both remaining games AND have all game results occur this way: NE beats MIA, NYJ loses to SEA, NYJ beats MIA, NE loses to BUF.
Jacksonville can make the playoffs if they don’t win the AFC South if: they beat Houston but lose to Tennessee, the Dolphins lose to the Pats and Jets, the Pats lose to the Bills, the Jets lose to the Seahawks, and the Steelers lose one game.
And finally, the 6-9 Raiders still have a chance to make the playoffs! They need a very specific series of events to take place:
MIA loses out (to NE and NYJ)
NE loses to Buffalo
NYJ loses to Seattle
PIT loses once
JAX wins the division or loses out
In that scenario, the Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Raiders (and possibly Titans, Jaguars, and Steelers) all have eight wins and the Raiders would win the tiebreakers over the lot of them.

NFC
IN THE PLAYOFFS
Philadelphia (13-2)
Minnesota (12-3)
San Francisco (11-4)
Dallas (11-4)
In the NFC, the Eagles, Vikings, Niners, and Cowboys have all clinched playoff berths. Minnesota and San Francisco have won their divisions, the NFC North and NFC West, respectively. The NFC East and NFC South are still up for grabs.

WILD CARD ROUND BYE
Philadelphia (13-2)
Minnesota (12-3)
San Francisco (11-4)
Dallas (11-4)
Philadelphia clinches a first round bye with a win over the Saints or Giants in the final two weeks. Losing out complicates things for the Eagles as they could be overtaken by any or all of the Vikings, Niners, and Cowboys winning out if that happens.
If Minnesota wins out and Philadelphia loses out, the Vikings get the one seed. Minnesota does not hold tiebreakers over any of the other teams, thus a 13 win Vikings team will play on Wild Card Weekend.
San Francisco takes the 1 seed if it wins out, Philadelphia loses out, and the Vikings lose at least once. The Niners are 9-2 in conference play, giving them the advantage over everyone else in the conference.
The Cowboys get the 1 seed if they win out, the Eagles lose out, and the Niners and Vikings lose at least once. The Cowboys would hold the divisional tiebreaker over the Eagles and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings.

NFC EAST
Philadelphia (13-2)
Dallas (11-4)
Philly clinches the NFC East with either a win or a Cowboys loss in the last two weeks. If the Cowboys win out and the Eagles lose out, the Cowboys win the division based on their superior divisional record.

NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay (7-8)
Carolina (6-9)
New Orleans (6-9)
The Bucs and Panthers both control their own destinies, with the Week 17 clash between the two teams in Tampa Bay being critical in determining who wins the division. Tampa wins the division with a win over Carolina, regardless of what happens elsewhere in the final two weeks.
Carolina wins the NFC South if they win out. 7 win Carolina can win the division if they beat the Bucs, Tampa loses Week 18 at Atlanta, and New Orleans loses once.
New Orleans wins the NFC South if it wins at Philly, then beats Carolina at home, if Carolina beats Tampa Bay in Week 17 and the Bucs lose at Atlanta in Week 18.

NFC WILD CARD
Philadelphia (13-2)
Dallas (11-4)
—————
NY Giants (8-6-1)
Washington (7-7-1)
Seattle (7-8)
Detroit (7-8)
Green Bay (7-8)
Tampa Bay (7-8)
The consolation prize in the NFC East title race is the 5 seed in the NFC playoff picture. Whichever of Philly and Dallas does not win the division, gets the 5 seed.
The Giants haven’t clinched but are close. They only need one win OR to have three of the 7-win teams lose once to clinch a playoff spot. They also own the tiebreaker over Washington.
The Commanders tie acts as a de facto tiebreaker over the other 7-win teams. If the Commanders win out, they make the playoffs. If they win just one game, they need Detroit, Green Bay, and Seattle to not win out to make the playoffs. They cannot make the playoffs as a 7 win team (Detroit and Green Bay face off this weekend and the winner would pass Washington in that scenario at minimum).
Green Bay, winner of three straight, is in if it wins out AND NYG lose both OR WAS loses both. The Packers are also in if they win one game and WAS, DET, and SEA all lose out. Their game against Detroit this weekend is critical for their playoff hopes.
Seattle is in if it win the last two games AND NYG lose both, WAS loses once, OR GB loses once. 8-win Seattle can also make the playoffs if WAS, GB, and DET all lose once, AND TB loses to Carolina and/or loses to ATL
Detroit makes the playoffs with two wins (one being over GB) AND NYG loses twice OR WAS loses once OR SEA loses once. 8-win Detroit is in if WAS loses twice, that win is over GB, SEA loses twice, AND TB loses to CAR and/or loses to ATL
An 8-win Buccaneers team can make the playoffs as a wild card if it loses to Carolina and beats Atlanta, WAS and SEA do not win out, and GB loses both games, and DET beats GB but loses to Chicago.